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Andy Baldwin
EY Global Managing Partner for Client Service, Ernst & Young Global Limited (EY)

The prognosis for India is very positive: EY's Andy Baldwin.

🎥 Jun 09, 2017 📺 CNBC-TV18 ⏱ 5m 👁 285 views
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Transcript (15 segments)
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Interviewer0:00
Mack, you're watching our continuing coverage here from Monte Carlo from the World Entrepreneur Awards. Joining me is the EY Managing Partner for Europe, Africa, and India, Andy Baldwin. Andy, thanks very much for joining us here on CNBC TV18. Everyone's talking about the UK elections, so that is going to be my first question to you. I mean, this is another instance of the boards getting it wrong yet again, but what does this now mean as far as the Brexit negotiations are concerned? I mean, she was going into the Brexit negotiations in about nine days from now with the fact that she's lost majority. What will it mean?
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Andy Baldwin0:30
That's really going to be the key question. The stance of both the Conservative and the Labour Party was for a hard Brexit in terms of exiting the single market, exiting the customs union, and controlling immigration. The interesting thing will be with the need now to build more parliamentary consensus around the negotiating stance. Will that see a softening of some of those principles? Will we see the government being prepared to make a contribution into the European Union to retain some form of access? Will we also see potentially some softening of the immigration stance? So I think our business is going to be looking for how quickly do we get a new government and what's the opening position of the UK government in those negotiations, because the European position is very clear.
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Interviewer1:15
Will this change mood as far as the UK economy is concerned? Because you put out an EY European Attractiveness Survey and it's looking good for you today.
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Andy Baldwin1:24
Yeah, I think one of the things you would have to say is both businesses and investors are becoming used to dealing with uncertainty. Growth over the last 12 months has held up remarkably well since Brexit. I think our hope and expectation will be that through this period of uncertainty, business confidence remains high and we continue to see the growth continuing. And as you said, the recent report, the Growth Barometer Report we published, showed that start-up confidence in the UK was the highest of anywhere else in the world. So we're hoping to see that confidence continue and continue to see the UK economy grow as we go through these very difficult next couple years of negotiations.
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Interviewer1:57
So what about the eurozone? Because record pace of FDI into Europe. UK, of course, as we pointed out, continues to be the top FDI destination, followed closely by Germany and France. We've got a new president in France as well. What's the mood like when it comes to inbound investment into Europe and where are we seeing the money coming from?
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Andy Baldwin2:18
You'd have to say it's overwhelmingly positive on Europe. Our report showed number of projects and investment at an all-time high, 260,000 jobs being created. Where's the investment coming from? US continues to be a significant investor, as is China, as is India, and as is Japan. But also, and this is crucial, as we've seen a recovery in the European economy, we're also seeing a lot more investment within Europe for Europe. So the biggest single driver of investment within Europe is actually the German economy, the UK economy, and the French economy. So a lot of investment being reinvested in the single market, reflecting the fundamentals of the single market.
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Interviewer2:53
What about India? How does it get back up?
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Andy Baldwin2:55
Well, in our report, India shows the highest growth ambition amongst the middle market companies, which for me is reflective of a lot of the sectors that are showing the most growth: business services, technology, incredibly strong for India. We're seeing that in the Indian economy, but also from an export point of view. And also our research shows the most important thing for companies is talent. India is producing more qualified STEM students than almost any other country. So I think the prognosis for India for me is very, very positive.
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Interviewer3:20
Okay, and in terms of global growth, how do you see Africa contributing?
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Andy Baldwin3:24
Well, I think with Africa, what we're seeing is that African growth is far more varied across the continent. Three or four years ago, during the period of Africa Rising, we saw Africa as a continent overall very strong growth. We're now seeing it being very selective in specific markets, and I think we expect that will continue for the next couple of years. So it's about picking the right country rather than saying the African continent will grow as a whole.
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Interviewer3:48
This debate on hard Brexit and soft Brexit is perhaps back on the table now. But you talked about some of the dilutions where maybe we will see Theresa May give in to immigration, passporting rights, maybe we don't know. But how do you see this debate on soft versus hard Brexit now playing out?
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Andy Baldwin4:10
Well, I think the divide between a soft and a hard Brexit is a bit misleading and a bit of a misnomer. Maybe look at immigration. I think people would accept there needs to be more controls around immigration. From a business point of view, from our perspective, we employ 84,000 people in Europe, 14,000 in the UK. High-skilled immigration for us is absolutely key, not just within Europe but also from being able to bring talent over from India, from China, from Asia. So I think it's a much more nuanced discussion around immigration. I think single market access really again depends on the sector. For some sectors it's really important, for others less so. So I think we'll see a number of sectors continue to grow and grow strongly even if they don't have single market access.
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Interviewer4:55
My final question: in terms of business confidence, is 2017 shaping up to be significantly better than the previous year?
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Andy Baldwin5:02
Yeah, I'd say if you look at Europe, all the data points, the signs that we're seeing is recovery in the European economy more generally. Record levels of investment, business confidence in Europe has come through the geopolitics piece and is very strong. Clearly how Brexit negotiations play out between the UK and Europe will be a key factor in 2017 going into 2018. The big risk, I think, is a Brexit negotiation which doesn't conclude to a satisfactory trade deal or outcome, where we have a breakdown of negotiation, a breakdown of talks. That clearly for me would be one of the bigger risks facing the UK economy.
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Interviewer5:35
Well, we hope it doesn't come down to that. Andy, thanks very much for joining us here on CNBC TV18. Appreciate it.