Stéphane Michel - WPC 2024

The most significant political event of the year, in my opinion, is the election of Donald Trump. His election will change U.S. policy on a number of important issues. First, in terms of domestic policy, support for renewable energies will have to be seen given what they decide to do on electric vehicles, batteries, solar, and offshore wind. Then, it will change U.S. international policy, with possible consequences on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and therefore possible consequences on the gas market. There is also the U.S. position in the Middle East, which is linked to the oil economy. So, as a producer of oil and gas and a producer of electricity, including renewable electricity, particularly in the United States, the election of Donald Trump will change the context in which we operate. Conflicts in the world have always existed. What has probably changed is that the current major conflict between Russia and Ukraine is very close to Europe, and there have been major consequences on Europe's gas supply. So yes, that has affected the global market and particularly the European market, where we are a very important player. Interestingly, Europe lost about a third of its supply due to this conflict. Thanks to the flexibility of the system and companies like ours, we were able to bring enough gas from other countries so that you all have electricity every day in Europe. I think that is an achievement of European construction and the fact that Europe is fortunate to have large groups like TotalEnergies, as well as Shell and BP, to ensure its security of supply. The way Europe is seen by the rest of the world is unfortunately an Europe that is weakening economically and technologically, for reasons sometimes misunderstood. The recurring point is overregulation: preferring constraint and obligation over subsidies or incentives. And also, in a way, the lower dynamism in research compared to the United States or Asia. That said, Europe still has great strengths, notably large companies that defend it internationally and that it can build on. It also has a network of small businesses and startups, especially in tech—that's one of France's assets. So we need to find ways to channel this energy to revive our continent. Rolling back overregulation would undoubtedly be a good idea. Investment in renewable energies is guided by the profitability of these investments. This profitability has been strengthened, particularly in the United States by the IRA framework, and we see that investments in renewables continue at a high pace there. On the other side, China has an active policy of supporting its companies, and China is the first country in the world to have put solar and wind into production. So I would say that this investment is there, it continues, it is fundamental, and it is not particularly lower or higher due to events. But we must realize that the world today invests first and foremost in renewable energies. What is missing to go faster is simplification of the regulatory framework in European countries, and investment in grids. Grids are today the weak link in this transition to allow renewable production to reach the consumer. So yes, what we see should lead to more investment in grids. But as you know, grids are a public monopoly, managed by public companies that must be given the means to raise capital to invest in this transition.