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Göran Persson
Chair of the Board of Directors, Swedbank AB (publ)

Exklusivt med Hedenmo: Göran Persson om hotet mot den amerikanska dominansen

🎥 May 08, 2025 📺 EFN Ekonomikanalen ⏱ 34m
Göran Persson, ordförande i Swedbank och tidigare stats- och finansminister tror att det pågående handelskriget kan leda till att ...
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Transcript (70 segments)
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Interviewer0:03
I'm on my way to Göran Persson. What does he think about the new US policy and all of Trump's initiatives? How is the cleanup after the money laundering scandal at Swedbank going? And how has his journey from working class to wealthy large-scale farmer changed him?
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Narrator0:32
Göran Persson from Vingåker was born in post-war Sweden. He became involved early in social democracy. At age 40, he was appointed Minister of Education, then Minister of Finance, and from 1996 Prime Minister and party leader for a decade. Today he is chairman of Swedbank. Göran Persson is married to former Systembolaget CEO Anitra Steen.
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Interviewer0:57
Göran Persson, nice to meet you here at Swedbank's headquarters in Sundbyberg. How often are you here?
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Göran Persson1:04
I think I spend about half my time on this assignment. But not all those days are in Sundbyberg; I'm around the country. We are close allies with the savings banks, so a lot of work is out in that movement.
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Interviewer1:22
You have been the bank's chairman since 2019, and were recently re-elected. Your assignment includes cleaning up after the money laundering scandal, as you yourself have put it. How is that cleaning going?
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Göran Persson1:33
I think it's going well. We have made very large changes within the bank to ensure it doesn't happen again. There is also an ongoing discussion, not least with US authorities, about how to conclude that review. That lies ahead.
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Interviewer1:53
There are threats of multi-billion fines. There are threats of this and that.
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Göran Persson1:58
We have no conclusion on that; we don't know at all where we stand in the review.
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Interviewer2:02
Do you know when the decision will come?
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Göran Persson2:07
No, if I did I would tell you. That's the kind of knowledge one should spread, not least to the shareholders.
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Interviewer2:12
At the annual general meeting in March, a record dividend was paid, over 21 kronor per share. Can you afford that if there are huge fines?
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Göran Persson2:22
If there are huge fines, we will naturally have to consider that. But Swedbank's fundamental financial strength is such that we will continue to be a bank with good dividends, that is unquestionable.
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Interviewer2:37
Donald Trump is spreading anxiety and uncertainty in large parts of the world with his many initiatives. I'm thinking particularly of the trade tariffs. What do you say about his tariff policy?
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Göran Persson2:48
It's incomprehensible. I'm not even sure that he and his inner circle really know what they've started. In the near term, we may see a long series of initiatives that are of the kind where they back down from these positions and begin to realize that if they don't, the American economy loses growth momentum, and they will face major domestic political troubles in the US because of this. That probably wasn't in the calculation.
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Interviewer3:22
That probably wasn't in the calculation. How can he do this then?
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Göran Persson3:27
We learned last time, 2016–2020, that he also took some initiatives that felt a bit strange, to put it mildly. But back then, American society resisted a little better, and there were people around him who had sworn allegiance to the constitution. Those checks don't seem to exist in the same way this time. What will ultimately prove to be the case for Trump is that if he continues this kind of policy, he damages the American economy, and the leading politician who damages a country's economy so that it affects employment and ordinary people's welfare—that politician is finished. So Trump will certainly be stopped, if not by popular opinion, then by reactions in the financial markets. We've only just begun, and we already see that some of what he has proposed is being removed. A lot will happen.
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Interviewer4:31
What are you thinking of that is being removed?
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Göran Persson4:34
All this with tariffs, for example. He is lowering them and backtracking. Now an agreement with the UK is coming. Interesting to see what it contains. It wouldn't surprise me if he is almost back to square one. But you know, it's so puzzling.
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Interviewer4:53
Doesn't he understand economics, or how do you interpret it?
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Göran Persson4:56
It could also be a way of conducting opinion-forming and politics that is of the kind that relies on provocation all the time. We should not underestimate Mr. Trump, I don't think we should. He is a product of his time and his media focus. 'This will make good TV,' he says. And then he raises tariffs on China to 145%. That says something about what reality we live in. But right now there are still 10% tariffs on the EU on everything except steel, aluminum, and cars, which have 25%. So we have a situation now with high tariffs on everything.
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Interviewer5:42
What does that mean for the Swedish economy?
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Göran Persson5:46
Well, we'll see. We should wait to evaluate, but it's clear that it's not beneficial. But whether the disadvantages will be so enormous for the Swedish and European economy remains to be seen. Perhaps it is the American economy that will be affected. Furthermore, the rest of the world is moving in a direction of de-Americanization. What the 1968 left dreamed of, Donald Trump is delivering.
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Interviewer6:18
Criticism of the US, boycotts...
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Göran Persson6:24
Indeed. It's quite remarkable. None of us have experienced this. None of us believed it was possible. Last time he governed, other forces in the US took over. When he left the international climate agreements, 400 mayors stepped forward and showed how to develop cities in a climate-friendly way. California is driving the development of private motoring in a healthy way. American universities drive research and are at the forefront. That happened then; we'll see if that reaction will catch up with him now too.
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Interviewer7:05
Between China and the US, a real trade war is now raging. What will it lead to?
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Göran Persson7:14
It could lead to the US's dominance in world politics being broken and the dollar's position as the absolutely preeminent currency being undermined. I think the Chinese may very well play a different game, gathering other forces around the world against the American offensive. They have surely wanted to do this for a long time, but never got this opportunity for free as Trump is now offering them.
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Interviewer7:46
Should we in the West stop regarding the US as a trading partner?
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Göran Persson7:51
No, of course not. The reasonable thing is naturally to return to an order where we trade freely with each other again. Few countries have benefited more from that than the US.
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Interviewer8:06
Are you thinking after Trump then?
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Göran Persson8:10
It might happen already during Trump. We don't know a thing about what will happen during this term. Stranger reversals have happened, and they could happen here too. I am very cautious about starting to talk about what his legacy will be. It's too early.
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Interviewer8:29
Is it also too early to talk about a new world emerging in terms of trade and globalization in that way?
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Göran Persson8:37
Yes, what is unpleasant, as I see it, is that the institutions we built after the Second World War—the UN system, the free trade system, the principles of international law and all that—are being undermined, and something else grows in its place. When the UN system is not there, what grows instead? We see that nations in the southern hemisphere are beginning to ally with each other. That is understandable in many ways, but what we have lived well with since the end of the Second World War is being undermined.
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Interviewer9:17
Should the EU forge closer trade ties with China?
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Göran Persson9:21
I think the EU has close trade ties with China. China has had a fantastic journey. They once had growth rates of 7–10%. Now it's 4% if it goes well. Soon China will be in a situation where they have 2% growth. The same journey the Chinese are making now as the Japanese once made. And before them, the Soviet Union made this journey in the 1960s. From very high growth rates down to 2–3%. The day the Chinese have growth rates of 2–2.5%, we will probably miss the Chinese engine in the world economy. Then someone else may have stepped forward. It could be India, someone in Africa, or India and Africa together. Somewhere there must come a drive, a demand, an activity that attracts both capital and research. The Chinese have been good at that, and the Japanese before them.
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Interviewer10:26
In the 1990s when you were prime minister, there was a big fuss after you had been to China. You came home and talked about what political stability means for economic development. You were criticized, as if you had praised an undemocratic system. How do you remember that?
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Göran Persson10:41
It ended with a vote of no confidence. Even that. Which I survived. But it was not a pleasant period. I could have expressed myself a bit more diplomatically.
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Interviewer10:56
What would you have said instead?
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Göran Persson10:59
There was no reason to highlight the expression 'political stability'. That was what the Chinese themselves used as a code word. I should have been better informed there. I could have said that with the long-term perspective that exists in the activities conducted in this part of the world, we have now created growth that not only benefits people here, but also the rest of the world economy. Something like that could have been said. It wasn't a good formulation.
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Interviewer11:27
Did you feel misunderstood?
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Göran Persson11:27
Yes, absolutely.
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Interviewer11:29
About China in the 1990s, do you regret what you said about political stability?
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Göran Persson11:33
I don't regret it, it's wrong. If I got the chance to do it again, I would formulate it differently. But that was then, at that time. Eventually, the Chinese have shown that they have managed to develop an economy. But not democracy.
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Interviewer11:55
No, they haven't. But we'll see if that trend reverses.
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Göran Persson11:59
It's not only the Chinese who have gone in the wrong direction regarding democratic development. Are you worried? Yes, I actually am. It's a dangerous time. We can see that in our own Europe. Powerful right-wing forces are moving into a position where they will dominate European politics. France, Germany? You can take almost every country. There you find a right-wing faction gathering 20–30%. And Sweden? Sweden too, absolutely.
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Interviewer12:33
What do you think about the Sweden Democrats?
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Göran Persson12:35
That is the big question for the Swedish political future. What influence they will have. I doubt that the decent part of the Swedish bourgeoisie will let them into a government. So the Sweden Democrats will not sit in the government if the bourgeois win the election? I don't think so. They say they demand it. Of course, otherwise they would make a mistake. I understand they should demand it, but that the bourgeois parties would cave in, I can't see that.
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Interviewer13:08
What do you think about the Centre Party with the new party leader Anna-Karin Hatt?
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Göran Persson13:12
That will be one of the issues she will devote most attention to, the government question. But I think Anna-Karin Hatt would do best to set that aside for a while and instead focus on the issues that can make the Centre Party great again. Those are rural issues. The situation of Swedish agriculture. The development of rural communities. Justice between city and countryside.
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Interviewer13:41
Was it right for Sweden to join NATO given the changed stance of the US?
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Göran Persson13:47
Yes, it was right at that time. But quite a few people saw this coming. Not least myself. Then we maybe didn't think Trump would be re-elected. But now that he is there, we see something I haven't observed before, and that is that he is not alone, Donald Trump. There is quite broad support in American society for withdrawing from responsibility for NATO. Then we have a completely new strategic situation.
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Interviewer14:25
Can you understand the US stance here, that they are tired of holding Europe under their arms?
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Göran Persson14:30
I can understand that; it's reasonable for Europe to take its share of the cost of defense. But for the US to do it in such a way that they lose the enormous advantage that the NATO structure has had internationally, that is to isolate themselves in a way that makes themselves poorer and much weaker. Then the budget issues become quite trivial in context.
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Interviewer15:00
What do you mean the US has to lose by reducing its engagement in NATO?
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Göran Persson15:05
For example, such a simple thing as the entire democratic alliance that NATO represents. Now I assume that American society holds fast to a democratic structure and that we get politicians there who are passionate about improving the world. In that situation, to have this North Atlantic alliance between the large Europe—Europe is large, I mean—and the very powerful US, it sets an agenda for the rest of the world in many ways. To get rid of that power, I think is politically irresponsible.
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Interviewer15:45
Sweden and other EU countries now seemed shocked and caught off guard that the US wants to withdraw and turns its back on Europe in security policy. But as you say, there were signs earlier. Biden hinted at this direction. Should the EU have prepared better?
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Göran Persson16:03
Yes, they should have. It's just that this is very difficult for the EU. This means that the EU is now to be militarized. The EU is to acquire a defense dimension. Now the EU is to rearm heavily. The EU is to build something new. When Europe has armed and built something new in the military area, it hasn't always gone well. And now we are going to embark on this again, with more and larger resources than ever, without really having any idea how it will be done and how it will be governed. That is also a dangerous situation.
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Interviewer16:43
As we record this, it is exactly 80 years since Victory Day. That's what you're referring to, the Second World War, when Europe last armed.
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Göran Persson16:51
Yes, among other things. It hasn't been Europe's best strong point, if I may say so, to handle military resources. They have unfortunately not been left unused. But do we have any choice? Now we have chosen, and now we are going to do this, but it would be very good if we could get clear guidelines for how this is to be managed in Europe. What do you mean? If NATO develops in such a way that the Americans effectively leave, what remains of that structure, while the EU builds something new military? How will this be fused together? That is important. This brings us to the next question. We also don't know what the EU will look like in the future. The European Union that I was responsible for governing looks completely different today. It is larger and with greater ambitions in many areas, and thereby a growing democratic deficit. Decisions about these big issues must be made. Will majority decisions be required? Majority decisions in the European Union will lead to very many conflicts. Very many small or medium-sized countries that will not accept this. Perhaps also large countries, even. It's not uncomplicated. No, it's really complicated. This hasn't been thought through. It's time to do that.
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Interviewer18:34
Several Swedish companies paid for Trump's inauguration. Ericsson and Swedish Match. What do you think about that?
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Göran Persson18:41
They have to answer for that themselves, and they have. Ericsson concluded it was necessary for their business in the US. Then they'll have to take the debate with others in other parts of the world. I'm not sure it's to Ericsson's advantage.
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Interviewer18:57
And in its annual report, Ericsson has replaced the words 'diversity' and 'inclusion' with 'equal treatment' and 'equal opportunities'. It should no longer be seen as a goal but an ambition. What do you say about that?
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Göran Persson19:11
Well, again, I think Ericsson will have more problems with that kind of adjustment than it will give them advantages. They live after all in a world larger than the American one. In what way will they have problems, do you think? That one can accuse them of having made adjustments in their way of thinking about fundamental values—that is not an easy burden to carry for anyone in an open intellectual climate. Right now it might be right, when Donald Trump is president. You said it yourself, you said 'right now it might be right'. But right now is not what reigns forever.
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Interviewer19:56
Göran Persson, in an election debate in 1998 you said something that has often been quoted, amusingly enough also by younger people who were barely born when the words were spoken. You and Carl Bildt had a debate, and it was about class society. 'I think I've worked more with people who have been in difficult situations than you have. I probably have done. I don't think you really know the depth of the misery that can strike. When I've worked with such people, also in other countries, it's very much about giving a job, giving dignity, giving them the opportunity to develop. Please tell me, Carl Bildt, about the big, beautiful world. Please tell me about new IT investments and new airplane models, but do not tell me about the Swedish class society. I have seen it, I grew up in it, I hate it. My entire political career will be devoted to fighting class divides, where single mothers pay for tax cuts for the better-off.' Yes, that was indeed... Say it. Yes, but... Sometimes the formulations are very clear. And that was good. Yes, many people... Since it's so quoted, I assume more people think so. Was it planned? I can probably think it was. This part, 'Please tell me about new airplane models,' that was probably something I had in the back of my mind. That was Carl Bildt's great interest, those things. He wanted to come back as prime minister then, and I had my first election as prime minister. He is very oriented toward distributional issues and justice, and I understood that it would come from that direction, and then I would take this. But then it turned out much better than planned. So partly planned and partly spontaneous. Absolutely, it has to be spontaneous. One cannot have a debate from a script. You have to enter a debate with a will, with an intention, and with a message, and then it is the surroundings and the development that determine exactly how you will deliver it. That's when it becomes lively and interesting. That was very good, I think. Yes, you are... I haven't seen it in a very long time. It was fun to see.
Since you said that, you yourself have become very rich. Yes, I probably have. 200 million, something. I don't know how much... You don't keep track? No, I actually don't. I keep track of most things regarding the economy, but my own I haven't been particularly interested in. Just the chairmanship at Swedbank gives almost 3.5 million kronor per year. It is a well-paid assignment, like other bank assignments. How would you say wealth has affected you? It probably has in some way, even if I don't want to believe it. It's important. I am still very marked by having had an upbringing and a large part of my life under small economic circumstances. I am very careful with spending on myself. Still? Yes. You are stingy with yourself? How does that manifest? For example, not investing in clothes, buying poor food, actively avoiding such things. You look at price tags? Yes, I do. Why do you think that is, when you no longer need to? It probably sits quite deep. If you grew up under such circumstances, you have had a daily economic responsibility all the time. For yourself and your family. Mom always said to me: 'Don't buy until you have the money in your hand.' 'He who is placed in debt...' Yes, that's her idea, really. That is sound, very sound. And very many people have been tricked into buying before they had the money in their hand. I have always argued a very simple principle, both in companies in the public sector and for myself: You must ensure that your income is larger than your expenses. Stick to that principle, and it works.
Regarding your own wealth and perhaps other Social Democrats' money, it is sometimes claimed that it is not compatible. One cannot be a Social Democrat and wealthy. When you moved to the large farm in Torp and so on. It is an agricultural operation we built from scratch. But you remember the debate? Oh yes. But it's quite remarkable. A Social Democrat is not allowed, through hard work, to achieve a good economic situation. Then you are no longer allowed to be part of it. That is a deplorable attitude. I am a Social Democrat primarily not because I was poor, but because I believed in the values and ideas. And they apply, regardless of your economic standard. That is important for Social Democracy. I think the thoughts go something like this: one should not care about money if one is interested in a more equal society. One needn't strive to enrich oneself, but if you don't have your finances in order, you become very poor. Even if you have very little money when you start. It's very important. If you are going to lift people's situations through joint efforts, the economy must be under control. You must have order. You cannot borrow money for welfare on the American financial market. That doesn't work. We actually have to pay for that ourselves. I made that journey politically, and today I see those ideas coming back—that now we should borrow. For defense, 300 billion. What do you say about that? I don't believe in that at all. Borrow at all? We have such low national debt. Yes, but having low national debt also means we have low interest rates on our debt. If we had the same debt level as France, we would in Sweden pay 50–60 billion more in interest each year. That money we could use for something else than lowering taxes for the richest. We could put it into defense, for example. No, for heaven's sake, don't start messing around now that we have got the economy in order. So you don't think we should borrow anything to build up defense? If you are going to borrow something, you should also combine it with raising taxes. So you want to raise taxes then? For everyone? Yes, naturally. Defense is something that is about securing the safety of the next generation—also my own, but we are soon on our way to a better world. But the next generation, and we just pass the bill on and we ourselves don't pay anything. That is wrong. We also have a responsibility and we should be part of paying. But for those who have difficulty making ends meet, and there are many today with rising food prices and until recently very high interest rates, maybe it sounds much better to have higher national debt instead of higher taxes. If the national debt were free, I could understand what you're saying. But it also has to be paid. It might not feel as tangible. No, but it has to be paid. And there is nothing as dangerous in economics as becoming confused. That money is not ours. We have borrowed it from someone. It incurs interest, and that interest will be paid by my children. And I'm rearming defense now. No, one actually has to have some morality. You don't agree with the Social Democrats. I don't agree with anyone today, it seems. Everyone thinks we are so well off now that we can borrow. We are well off precisely because we don't have debt. We must understand how it connects.
Göran Persson, you have turned 76 recently, but you are fully active. Working and going. Chairman of Swedbank, you have consulting assignments, and you run a large farm. Don't you ever get tired?
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Göran Persson29:31
Yes, I do. But happily tired. The best form of tiredness, when you get tired from working hard. I work both physically and intellectually. Do you shovel manure yourself among the cows? Absolutely, I do. When I have time, that is. And I will honestly say that with increasing age, the body is no longer in the condition it once was. But I am quite sure that if I stopped my intellectual activities and shut off my brain, then the last of the body would soon be used up too. You believe they are connected? I am convinced of it. I want to work, I feel best then. And as long as someone wants to listen to me and use my services, I am happy to help. But to be both practically active—with cows, tractors, buildings, sowing, harvesting and all that—to be both involved in that and at the same time stand before a large audience and express qualified reasoning about our time, that is a privilege. The cows, you said. Do they all have names? No, not anymore. Now they have numbers. How many are they? 70 cows, which have just gone out to pasture. Do you have a special good relationship with any of them? Absolutely. Tell me, which one? 0186, she's called. Can't she have a name too? Yes, but it becomes that way. 0186. A calf I helped when she was born. And then I took extra good care of, because she didn't get suckling started. Then it's bottle, and you imprint such an animal. So you fed her? Yes, and then she comes very close.
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Interviewer31:24
Now we are going to look at a picture of you from a long time ago. How old might you have been here? 12–13, maybe. 14. Do you remember the context? No, but I've seen the picture before. I think it was taken by my uncle. He was married to my father's sister. He was a photographer down in Halmstad. His name was Göte Karlsson and he took a lot of pictures of us when we grew up. So we have a fantastic treasure to draw from. If you were to say something to that young guy, the young Göran, something about life, something he should know, what would it be? Yes, it's very... Off the top of my head... 'You won't get anything for free. Everything you want and want to do, you have to do yourself. But when you do it yourself, you should know that around you there are people who think you are good, who like you and want to help you. But when it comes down to it, to the decisive moment, it's up to you to take the initiative and work hard.' We should end where we started, here at Swedbank. Your former CEO Birgitte Bonnesen was sentenced by the Court of Appeal to prison for gross fraud. That is very, very unusual. What did you think when that happened? I think a lot, of course, but at the same time I have to be careful. It is a process that is still ongoing, and I should not interfere. Right now it is subject to review in the next judicial instance. It is of course very tragic for her part. Do you have contact with her? No. I have been careful not to have contact with that generation of leadership at Swedbank. I came in under such special circumstances that it was necessary for us to move on. So it was not the old leadership I primarily contacted. Do you know how she is now? No, I have no knowledge of that.
Göran Persson, thank you very much for letting us come and interview you. Thank you for taking the time.
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Narrator34:03
No, Göran Persson is definitely not on his way to slowing down. I almost got the feeling he misses the heat of the old days. I wonder if he will be right about Trump's tariffs. Will he really back down? Well, he who lives will see. This is a podcast from EFN Ekonomikanalen. Responsible publisher is Leo Lagercrantz.