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Andreas Wahl
Managing Director (Geschäftsführer), KAMAT GmbH & Co. KG

AKTIEN, KRYPTO & OPTIONEN – DER WEG ZUM INVESTIEREN! FindYourCoach Podcast mit Andreas Wahl #4

🎥 May 20, 2025 📺 findyourcoach ⏱ 70m 👁 679 views
Willkommen zum FindYourCoach Podcast! Hier sprechen wir mit inspirierenden Coaches, Unternehmern und Experten über persönliche Entwicklung, Business-Wachstum und Erfolg. In dieser Folge: 1:00 Intro 1:50 Begrüssung 2:35 Werdegang 19:00 Finanz-Coaching 29:00 Fehler 35:00 Bitcoin 45:45 Panikmache 50:00 Crash? 55:30 Manipulation 1:01:30 Verteuflung der Börse ► LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/andreas-wahl-25826927/ Folge uns für mehr Coaching-Content: ► Website: www.sowu.ch ► Instagram: www.instagram.com/findyourcoach.ch ► TikTok: www.tiktok.com/@findyourcoach ► LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company...
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Transcript (73 segments)
A
Andreas Wahl0:00
I taught myself everything, probably making every mistake you can make. The most important advice for investors — whether you invest in stocks, funds, ETFs, crypto, or Bitcoin — you must know the business case. If you understand Bitcoin, you have the ultimate savings asset where you can expect to have more in 10 years than now. In Germany, when you buy a stock and make 1,000 euros profit, the state takes 26.3%. In Switzerland, as a private investor with capital gains, you generally pay nothing.
K
Kevin1:10
Welcome to the Find Your Coach Podcast, where you can learn more about coaching in all areas. Today's guest is Andreas Wahl. He's a financial expert with over 20 years of experience who supports people with financial topics — how to properly select what suits your personal needs. We talked about options trading, stocks, what's happening in the world right now, Bitcoin, and much more. I wish you lots of fun listening.
Hey Andy, really great that we could get together for the podcast. Do you have any question to start with?
A
Andreas Wahl2:14
Great, great. Yes, Kevin. I'm also looking forward to an interesting conversation.
K
Kevin2:18
Perfect. Alright then — our viewers are really excited. You come from a completely different field, everything we've had so far has been from the finance area. I'm really curious what will come up. Also, we're super curious where you got your start.
A
Andreas Wahl2:43
Happy to. I'll start with my education. As you can hear, I'm German. I grew up near the border in Singen and completed an apprenticeship as an industrial mechanic here in Switzerland — a precision mechanic. After my apprenticeship, I worked for a while as a journeyman in an industrial company in Singen.
K
Kevin3:00
Precision mechanic? Ah, you're a precision mechanic.
A
Andreas Wahl3:02
Yes, I'm a precision mechanic. And I'd always had the desire to become wealthy, and I realized that with a journeyman's wage it would probably be really difficult. So I decided to go back to school on the second educational path in Germany to get my Fachhochschulreife so I could go to university. I started studying mechanical engineering in Konstanz, with the goal of eventually finding a well-paid position as an engineer.
K
Kevin3:49
Okay. How did that interest in the stock market come about?
A
Andreas Wahl3:52
It was after the big crash, the tech crash 2000. Everything crashed, the panic was enormous. I started getting interested and trying to understand how this happened. But back then it was very, very difficult to get information the way you can today with all the internet resources. Access to financial service providers was also quite complex.
K
Kevin4:21
How did you approach it? Did the internet already exist?
A
Andreas Wahl4:25
Yes, but it wasn't that comprehensive yet — no screeners or anything like that. Everything was still pretty basic. So my approach was really the normal path most people take. You go to your normal bank advisor, get advice on how to invest, how to get into stocks. And like many others, I first bought the bank's own product — back then at Sparkasse in Germany, around 2003, 2004 — some weird mixed fund, a Dachfonds. It's a broadly diversified fund investing in stocks, bonds, and other secured assets, similar to what a cantonal bank might offer you here in Switzerland.
K
Kevin5:17
Ah okay. So a relatively broadly diversified fund.
A
Andreas Wahl5:20
And it naturally performed quite poorly. High fees, poor performance. And then the years passed — 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 — invested a bit of money, hadn't earned much yet. And then the big crash came.
K
Kevin5:43
That was massive, right? 2007, 2008.
A
Andreas Wahl5:45
In 2008 the big financial crisis hit and my portfolio really crashed. Like every other one. The depression was huge. And I was far, far from becoming wealthy — from my actual goal. But I was professionally lucky: my studies were already finished, and I found a relatively good job here in Switzerland. I've been working in Switzerland for over 20 years now.
K
Kevin6:12
Crazy. So long in Switzerland?
A
Andreas Wahl6:16
Yes, that long already in Switzerland. Started in Eastern Switzerland at a company, over 20 years ago. The first five years were a cool time. Then the financial crisis came and I got another good job in Winterthur, in the machining sector. It helped keep me busy. I wasn't watching the stock market too closely, and thankfully didn't have too much money in it. The financial crisis of 2008 really shaped me. After the crisis, I started focusing less on funds and more on individual stocks.
K
Kevin7:20
Awesome. Probably not so awesome during the process, but looking back it's nice, right?
A
Andreas Wahl7:27
Yes, the learning process was good. But looking back, I wish I'd had some kind of coach or mentor. That's why we're here. Even if it was just someone to tell you: don't take the -30%, -35%, -40% so seriously. In 2008, new times are coming, you'll get through this phase. Everyone makes the same mistakes — starting with classic mutual funds that are usually very overpriced and don't deliver performance.
Then switching to individual stocks, and there I made what I'd claim most private investors make: the so-called home bias. You invest in the companies around you — as a German, in German companies. But usually there are much better options elsewhere in the world. I also made the mistake of just following trends — stocks that were always mentioned in the media, on the internet, I invested without knowing whether the stock was expensive or cheap. And I didn't know the business case.
That's actually the most important advice for any investor, whether stocks, funds, ETFs, crypto, or Bitcoin: you must know the business case. Why are you putting your money into this company? What do they do for money? What products do they develop? What markets? All of that is very, very important.
When you get into stocks, you inevitably come across the most famous stock — Berkshire Hathaway, led by the most famous investor of all time, Warren Buffett. And there was always this theme that Buffett buys stocks at a discount. I thought that meant he invests billions instead of 1,000 euros, so he gets some kind of discount from the company. But that wasn't the case — he bought options. That's how I got into the options world alongside stocks.
K
Kevin11:31
Okay. Can you briefly explain what options are?
A
Andreas Wahl11:34
Say you have a stock in your sights, like Coca-Cola, trading around $60. You think it's interesting but don't want to buy at $60 — you want to buy at $55. So you sell a put option on the market at $55 and collect a premium. You actually get paid money from the market. If the stock falls below $55, you have to buy it at $55, but you've already collected the premium. If the stock stays above $55, it's too expensive for you anyway, and you don't buy it — but you keep the premium either way. That's how Buffett always bought stocks cheaply. And today, private investors can do this too through brokers that offer options trading.
After some time, and unfortunately too late, I also discovered Bitcoin. Bitcoin kept crossing my path since 2022, but I never understood it. I thought it was the devil's work — digital ones and zeros. What the farmer doesn't know, he doesn't eat — that's exactly how it looked. Unfortunately, I completely ignored Bitcoin until 2022.
K
Kevin13:50
Yes, definitely.
A
Andreas Wahl13:52
But Bitcoin is really there for one purpose. What is money for? You can spend it, invest it — in stocks, bonds, options — or you can save it. You Swiss would say you save in francs because it's simply the best fiat currency. But still, if you put 1,000 francs somewhere today, in 10 years you won't get back what that 1,000 francs was worth. Even if it's the hardest currency — no chance. But now we live in an age where, if you understand Bitcoin, you have the ultimate savings asset where you can expect to have more in 10 years than now.
Throughout all of this, I personally grew in stock, options, and Bitcoin trading. Until the end of 2024, I was still working normally in a standard industrial environment as a purchaser. We know each other from that. I experienced a lot through my job all over the world — including the hot topic of tariffs, which we'll get to later. That helped me understand the stock market environment very well. And by the end of 2024, I decided to become completely self-employed, founding my own company — Wahlin Investum Coaching GmbH — where I try to grow my own assets and, in the coaching and mentoring area, support people with investing. I won't manage anyone's portfolio, but I'll guide people toward investing or provide a second opinion.
K
Kevin16:18
Mhm.
A
Andreas Wahl16:20
Because a second opinion isn't always bad. In 2008 I was already depressed because the market crashed so hard. What happened recently was actually just a light breeze compared to it, even though it was intense too. I would have been very, very happy if in 2008 I'd had someone standing by my side who I could ask for advice. That's what I'll be there for in the future. You can buy coaching on the internet, but there aren't many offers for hour-by-hour personal guidance on the market. And I've made pretty much every mistake. If it doesn't kill you, the experience is good — but you can also avoid some mistakes.
My biggest financial mistake was: I had a really great stock around 2011, 2012 — in about half a year it made 100%. I had no one to exchange ideas with. I said, there's no way this stock can go any higher. So I sold it, happy about my 100% profit. But since then it's probably gone up another 1,000%, 2,000%. The product was so good it was clear they'd go global — everyone wanted it. That was my biggest financial mistake. Not the losses from various investments I've made, am making, and will always make like everyone else — but the opportunity cost. If I'd had someone to exchange ideas with who said 'Andy, look at the company's financials, look at the revenue, look at the market opportunity,' it would have been relatively clear it would keep going. That's why I look forward to supporting investors and private individuals here in Switzerland, Germany, the German-speaking world, and Austria to at least reach a degree of financial freedom.
K
Kevin19:33
Wow. Wow. So nice, almost crazy. I find it really great — you want to help exactly the Andreas who in 2008 would have wanted help. I find that beautiful and you can really feel that's exactly the desire.
A
Andreas Wahl19:48
Absolutely. Yes, absolutely.
K
Kevin19:58
Really cool.
A
Andreas Wahl19:58
No, no, very very gladly. And that's what we're here for, and also with your support.
K
Kevin20:14
Now, what would it look like if someone decides on this kind of support? In what framework do you support, how can you imagine it?
A
Andreas Wahl20:30
Every person is individual. It starts with the time frame, the financial frame — how much time does someone want to invest? How are they financially positioned? What are their financial goals? That's very important. And at the end of the day, what kind of volatility tolerance does a person have? I'd say I'm very volatility-tolerant — it does affect me when my portfolio drops 30% and the market only drops 20%. But because I have volatility in there, in good or normal phases it goes up more strongly. And that's actually my only goal. It shouldn't matter what happens short-term with money you can afford to set aside. If you look 10, 20 years ahead, it doesn't matter if your 10,000 francs today are 8,000 or 12,000 — if in 10 years they're 20,000 francs, you won't ask what you had today.
If you're less risk-tolerant, you go toward standard ETFs, certain defensive stocks — like Berkshire Hathaway or something like that. If you're more risk-tolerant, more volatility-tolerant, then you add riskier or more volatile stocks, options trading, or Bitcoin. But especially with options, you need expertise, you need to invest time and knowledge. When someone comes to me, I first ask: what are your goals? How much time can you invest? If someone says they have no time and no desire to deal with it, I ask: are you risk-tolerant? Then do this. Not risk-tolerant? Then do that. If someone wants to learn a lot, it takes patience and effort. For me it also took a long time — over 20 years to get to where I am now.
K
Kevin23:50
And who is this suitable for — who is suited to engage with this kind of topic?
A
Andreas Wahl24:04
Actually every private investor — young, old, man, woman, whoever. Everyone who wants to engage with investing and saving and wants a horizon expansion beyond the normal path that everyone takes at the beginning: asking their normal bank advisor or insurance/wealth advisor. It's important that you always ask yourself: what are your performance goals and how do you achieve them? If you're satisfied with 5-6%, you can buy a normal fund at a regular bank. But if you want to generate positive alpha — meaning a return above the benchmark, like 10-11-12% — you have to do something different.
For example, the Swiss Market Index has returned about 9% over the last 10 years including dividends. If you go to a normal bank or buy a normal fund, you pay various fees — bank fees, advisor commissions, transaction fees, brokerage. Instead of 9%, you end up with maybe 5-6% and have negative alpha of 3-4%. That shouldn't be the goal. You need to figure out how to at least achieve neutral to positive alpha. Start by educating yourself, maybe not in classic mutual funds but in ETFs, index funds with minimal fees. Use neobrokers where you pay much less — I pay one dollar per trade at my broker, regardless of the amount. In Germany there's Trade Republic, Scalable, Bitpanda. In Switzerland, Swissquote charges relatively high fees.
K
Kevin27:06
Okay. In Switzerland, Swissquote for example?
A
Andreas Wahl27:09
Swissquote charges quite high fees, from what I've heard. The neobrokers in Germany have the advantage of very low fees. And we Swiss have the huge advantage that we don't pay capital gains tax. As a normal private investor, you don't pay it. In Germany, if you buy a stock and make 1,000 euros profit, the state takes 26.3% — capital gains tax of 25% plus solidarity surcharge. You can offset losses, but the goal is to make gains, not losses. So it's really tough in Germany. In Switzerland, that doesn't exist for private investors — with capital gains, you generally pay nothing. It's taxed only through wealth. That's the huge advantage here.
K
Kevin29:10
Great, great. So now we've heard your background, how you support people individually based on needs. But since you're a specialist — what are the biggest mistakes that most people make, that you know of or have experienced yourself, where you want to accompany them on the path?
A
Andreas Wahl29:47
The biggest mistakes — there are several. One is jumping on hype trains. Cannabis hype, hydrogen hype, or the crypto hype. Crypto aside from Bitcoin is especially notorious for people chasing hype. That's a huge mistake. As I said before, when you invest, you need to know the business case. And you need to know whether a stock is reasonably fairly valued. Many people get this wrong by investing in hype. Private investors always do it wrong fundamentally — when the market is very depressed now, stocks are down, Bitcoin has dropped over 20%, no investor is willing to invest in good stocks or Bitcoin. When do they invest? When Bitcoin is at $50,000 instead of $38,000, when everyone has hype — then they come back in, drive it a bit higher, but can't time the exit. That's a huge problem.
Another huge problem is panic — what people feel in certain market phases. The financial crisis in 2008. Corona was also very, very intense. And now again with the tariff issue, Donald Trump and his advisory team with these strange tariffs. Very often, private investors who started investing this year get in, three months later they're down 20-25%, become depressed, get out, and say they never want anything to do with it again — too risky. They'd rather stay with their savings account. That's extremely, extremely wrong. Because in phases like these, you must not panic. The stock market has survived two world wars, and they will survive Donald Trump. Definitely. When you have money to invest in a phase like now — at least strategically — it makes absolute sense. And many, many people get this wrong.
Third point: especially young investors fall very heavily for internet hype, for so-called finfluencers — finance influencers. There are many of them. I can't name any because I've heard there are legal consequences. But there are many who hype things — some do copy trading, where an influencer says 'I'm buying stock A' and then people automatically copy the trade through their broker account. The influencer gets paid by the broker in the background, which few people know about. And the crypto hype is also very strong among young people — some finfluencer hyping random cryptos, or even footballers like Ronaldinho or Messi promoting memecoins. You should never get into that.
K
Kevin34:07
It's really crazy how money gets shuffled around.
A
Andreas Wahl34:20
Yes, yes, yes, it's brutal. Just ignore those things. And it's not bad if you know someone you can talk to, someone who gives a neutral perspective. I'm absolutely convinced about Bitcoin, but I also like to hear counterarguments — valid arguments about why Bitcoin might not be the ultimate asset.
K
Kevin34:55
Mhm. Cool. Okay, if we're on the topic of Bitcoin — you're a big supporter. Can you share why that is?
A
Andreas Wahl35:10
Gladly. As I said before, Bitcoin has existed since — Bitcoin actually originated after the financial crisis. 16 years now. The founder or inventor — we don't know exactly who it is, whether it's a group, a man, a woman, several — is called Satoshi Nakamoto. And it's existed for 16 years. As I said at the beginning, at first everything seemed very, very suspicious.
People say it's digital gold but it has no intrinsic value. I want to add to that. Yes, please. It has no intrinsic value, it's worth nothing. And it was all too suspicious for me back then. There was a phase, I followed it all, when it went up in 2013. I wasn't really following it closely back then, but it went up relatively quickly from a few hundred to several thousand, and then crashed back down. I said, nope, staying away from that stuff, it's way too risky. I'm willing to take risks, but not that much. But I kept hearing about it, again and again. And then in 2022, it came to a point for me where I thought, okay, now is the time. Bitcoin wasn't doing so well again. In 2022 it was in a bear market. But on the internet, there were already really excellent YouTubers, especially in the German-speaking world, who cover Bitcoin. There are two or three very good YouTube channels. I started looking into it, got into it, and then I read the book 'The Bitcoin Standard'. The author has a difficult name, but I think the title fits. It's a bit technical, you should already know something about Bitcoin. I also recommend 'Bitcoin for Beginners' by a Swiss author named Sunny Decree. Very cool tip. He also has a YouTube channel and does a great job. He wrote a book, 'Bitcoin for Beginners', which I highly recommend. After reading it and spending a few hours on it, I really got into investing in Bitcoin. It clicked for me. It's completely decentralized, completely independent, absolutely limited to 21 million coins. Even though the limit is digital. It's run by nodes, which is very important. It's very decentralized, it doesn't have management risk like many other cryptocurrencies. Let me explain briefly what 'decentralized' means for those who don't know. Decentralized means Bitcoin organizes itself more or less. It's a network that organizes itself, it has no boss, no management. Other currencies like Ethereum, Ripple, or Solana all have management behind them. Ethereum is here in Switzerland, Ripple is in the USA. They all have management, so the cryptocurrency depends on that management, which is not the case with Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't care. It doesn't care who the US president is, what the tariffs are, who the president of China or Russia is. It doesn't matter for Bitcoin. That's why I really got into it, it's absolutely limited. And then relatively quickly, over a year, Bitcoin became more established in society. What happened now is that in early 2024, the Bitcoin ETF was approved in the USA. Yes, for various institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and others. They set up Bitcoin there, and that was actually the point where the big earlier risks disappeared. People who invested in Bitcoin early had the risk of it being deregulated by countries or hacked. That can't really happen anymore. If the USA as the main financial power has several Bitcoin ETFs, then the whole financial world is behind it, and it won't be banned by a country like the USA. Some smaller states might ban it, but that doesn't matter. Then came the Bitcoin Standard, and now just a few weeks ago, the next evolutionary step with the strategic Bitcoin Reserve announced by the USA. They have other reserves, gold reserves, and other reserves. The USA has gold reserves, if they really still have them. That's also a huge advantage of Bitcoin. That's a good point you bring up, gold versus Bitcoin. Gold was and is still the store of value par excellence, which many institutional and private investors trust to store their money, because it's inflation-resistant. You can still get the same for your gold weight as you did 100 years ago. But the problem with gold is there's a lot of paper trading, paper certificate trading. It's estimated that gold is traded 50 to 100 times more than actually exists. How is that justified? Because no one audits it, no one investigates, no one can investigate. Gold can't be verified. That's why Fort Knox has never been audited. Even though Trump and others said they would audit it, see how many tons of gold are really there. The bunker, right? Yes, in the USA, where there's supposedly 8,000 tons of gold. But no one knows. Many believe it's no longer there, but no one can say because it's madness. 8,000 tons of gold is worth a lot. I'd have to calculate it, but it's a huge amount of value. And no one checks if it's really there. That's absolute madness. And that's the huge advantage of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin, you can digitally verify yourself, if you're somewhat technical, you can check on your computer how much Bitcoin is where. You can't fake it, it's not possible. That's because of the blockchain technology. That's the huge advantage of Bitcoin, and that's what got me into it. Now I'm convinced it's the ultimate store of value. Gold is good, but Bitcoin has really diverse advantages over gold. The verifiability. The other big problem with gold, maybe not for private investors who don't have much in gold. If you have a few thousand francs, it's fine. But imagine if you're extremely rich and want to invest a billion in gold. How do you do that? Where do you go and how do you store it? It costs a fortune and enormous effort. With Bitcoin, it costs nothing. That's why I'm such a fan of Bitcoin, besides stocks and shares.
K
Kevin42:44
Mhm. Yes.
A
Andreas Wahl42:47
Why do you think Bitcoin has so many negative perceptions? Where does that come from? Or people say, if there's no more electricity, there's no more Bitcoin. There are so many excuses why it won't work. We don't need to go into the electricity issue or the environment today. There are plenty of YouTube videos that explain extremely well why that's not the case. The basic problem is, on one hand, ignorance. What I don't know, I don't trust. That was the case for me. Ignorance is a huge issue. The other big issue with Bitcoin is that it's naturally extremely dangerous for certain countries and institutions. Because it's value-stable. The countries understand that, especially the European Central Bank. They don't want that. They want their CBDC, their digital euro. I believe here in Switzerland you have the digital franc. Is it going well? I've never really been interested in it, but okay. But the ECB is working on it. And that's why they hate Bitcoin. And Bitcoin, being absolutely decentralized, you can't control it. You can't ban it, you can't steer it in another direction. That's all what certain institutions and organizations don't want. But other institutions, like BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. They used to hate Bitcoin, but they had to capitulate. They realized there's no point fighting Bitcoin. And it's crazy when the largest asset manager switches sides. So what else can happen? More and more are coming. And it's still quite early, even though the price seems very high. But this is not investment advice, but in my opinion, it will go much higher. When people really understand what it is, because Bitcoin is always in that stage, like now with the whole tariff issue, when tech stocks fall, Bitcoin usually follows. Bitcoin is still not a risk-off asset like gold is. Gold is a risk-off asset. Institutions know that. When stock markets crash, they shift money and some goes to gold. In Bitcoin not so much yet, but it will come. In a few years it will be the case, and then more will come and it will blow up by itself. Absolutely. Yes, definitely.
K
Kevin44:43
Absolutely. Yes, definitely.
A
Andreas Wahl44:46
Yes, definitely. Yes, crazy.
K
Kevin44:49
Maybe especially geopolitically, we're currently in such turbulent times, so much is happening that causes big things or bad things, like almost war. How do you see the stock market and the world in general? Is there some kind of balance?
A
Andreas Wahl46:25
Well, you definitely see the mood in the world. It's definitely short-term. There's the Fear and Greed Index, which tells you if the market is in extreme greed or extreme fear. And currently it's in extreme fear mode. Where does that come from? Naturally from geopolitical uncertainty. The main issue right now is tariffs, which have extreme impacts. Imagine the issue with Switzerland. He proposed 31% tariffs about a week and a half ago. That's a lot, especially since Swiss companies export a lot to the USA, particularly in the industrial sector with great products the Americans like. This has extreme impacts on the market. There's extreme fear for Swiss companies on one side, and inflation fear in the USA on the other. Everything from Switzerland will be 30% more expensive. That's why the markets are freaking out. With China it's much more extreme. China as an extended workbench for the USA in many areas. They've been in a tariff war for a while. In China, I heard this morning that 600,000 employees work indirectly on Apple products. 600,000 employees in China. And now they've negotiated up to 145% tariffs. You can't even keep track of how high it is between the USA and China. But at 145%, imagine all iPhone, iPad, and other products made in China coming to the USA and becoming 145% more expensive. That will never happen. Because what will Americans do? If iPhone products are 145% more expensive at manufacturing cost, even more at retail, they'll go to Mexico, Canada, or on vacation and buy their iPhone there. Which is not in Trump's interest, or the Apple CEO's interest. You can bet the Apple CEO has been on the phone with Trump and explained the situation. Plus, we want to hire 20,000 more employees in the USA over the next five years and invest 500 billion. Do you want me not to do that? Do you want me to invest in Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, the EU, or elsewhere? That won't happen. So it's just a nasty bluster right now. But it will pass. The geopolitical impacts are visible in indices like Fear and Greed. But over the long term, it's important to invest your money in good assets: index funds, stocks, or Bitcoin. Because over the long term, it's just background noise. Like I said, the SMI index is down here now. A few weeks ago it was up there, and in 10 years it will be here. It doesn't matter how it fluctuates here, because in 10 years the SMI will be higher than today. That's what matters.
K
Kevin50:00
Okay. And for all investors?
A
Andreas Wahl50:02
Yes, that's really important. You mentioned a pretty depressive phase. Is that the right way to say it? Extremely depressing, yes. Okay. And I always see this cycle and cycle and crash, crash, crash, and now a crash in the stock market. How are you positioned? When you hear that, you think of 2008 and something extremely... or fear. So right now, if you compare the current crisis with 2008 or Corona 2020, it's actually nothing. Now it all depends on one man and his advisory team. It's brutal. If he tweets something positive on Sunday evening, the stock market surges on Monday. If negative, it crashes. The last 12% drop again. It's terribly annoying for everyone, for me, for everyone that the market is so dependent. But nonetheless, looking at everything, no one can tell you, I can't, no one else can, whether it will drop another 20-30% from here or go up. But you need to have a more medium-term view and push aside the short-term. What I said earlier, Trump is getting pressure from his colleagues in the USA, from his billionaires, CEOs, all the big tech companies, Apple, Amazon, everyone is pressuring him behind the scenes. You can bet on that. When they threaten to lay off workers in the USA and not hire new ones as planned, he already shifts. He shifted last week. Why? Because the original goal was to bring down government bonds, but they went up because other countries intervened, so he had to step in with the 90-day pause except for China. That's why he backed down. These crash phases, look at what can happen. Another important point: Trump wants to run again, to be the greatest president of all time. There are midterm elections in the USA, which are always halfway through the term, I think November 2026, and a very important election will take place. And it interests many Republican colleagues of Donald Trump. You can bet that by November 2026, the whole issue will be resolved. Of course, it's another year and a half, but it needs to be resolved well in advance. Because Trump's goal should be that by November 2026, there are new all-time highs in stocks, at the latest. He also has to make deals. And with China it's not as easy as with other countries. It's a bit messy. But I strongly hope they come to more positive insights in the coming days and weeks. I can't know, no one can know. It could crash further. But even here, if you invest in a stock today, again, if it crashes further, it doesn't matter. If you have a long-term view, it doesn't matter. It hurts, but then I look at my portfolio, take the dog for three extra walks a day, and then it's somewhat okay. Unfortunately I have to look at my portfolio every day now because it's my job. It hurts, it hurts everyone, but I have to get through it like everyone else. Where do you get the confidence that in the long run you will always win?
K
Kevin53:54
Where do you get the confidence that in the long run you will always win?
A
Andreas Wahl54:13
Well, I've been through some crises. The biggest ones being 2008 and 2020 Corona. That was the biggest in my time as an investor. So I feel that it always continues. And for everything calculated in fiat currency, Swiss francs, US dollars, every other currency is always being inflated. And with the increase in money supply, the stock market actually rises. So it's actually God-given, or inflation-given better said, that the market has to rise accordingly. It just has to rise. And the market has also survived two world wars and the economic crisis a few years before World War II. It has survived all that. We're thankfully not anywhere near such phases now, hopefully never again. So I'm positive about it. As long as the light of humanity doesn't completely go out, I'm positive that the stock market will keep rising, especially calculated in fiat currency. Definitely. Mhm. Crazy. Great. Great.
K
Kevin55:23
Great. Now I have my cheat sheet and a few more questions. Ah, exactly. The topic of manipulation. It's a huge issue in the crypto sector. Can you talk a bit about whether manipulation exists and how it works?
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Andreas Wahl55:54
In Bitcoin or in the crypto sector? I'm not an expert on the broader crypto sector because I'm only interested in Bitcoin. I don't know much about other currencies. The only thing I find very critical from an outside perspective about other cryptocurrencies: I've never put money in, well, that's not true. I put 100 francs in Ethereum or Ripple or something, but really only 100 francs as a experiment. I wanted to see how the market works. And I lost it, of course. I find it great that you're so honest about it. Yes, that's part of it. But what I find a huge issue with most other cryptocurrencies is that they're not decentralized, they're managed. And that makes them fundamentally manipulated from the start. The second big issue I have with other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Ripple: when they started, 50% of the coins were already allocated to a certain investor circle. That's really crazy. They create something on the computer, keep 50% for themselves, throw the rest on the market, and hope to make really good money. It's known. The founders of Ethereum, Ripple, they're rich. And actually from nothing. They haven't really created anything. And I find that a form of market manipulation, especially with cryptocurrencies. In the Bitcoin area, people also assume there are so-called market makers, which also exist in the stock market. These are large hedge funds that place big bets on the market at certain levels, whether long or short. You can find that through chart analyses online. Where are the positions leveraged? Long means you bet on something rising, short means you bet on it falling. And there are market makers who put in huge amounts of money. There was a case two or three weeks ago around the strategic Bitcoin Reserve topic. A market maker in the USA bet with an incredible leverage, I don't want to lie, maybe 100 or 400x on Bitcoin. On Bitcoin futures. And two of his bets came true and he earned 10 million within a short time. That's either completely crazy or you really know what's going on. And that's probably market manipulation. Now with the whole tariff issue, people also assume Trump and his team manipulated things. I think they wanted to lower interest rates but they assumed they could manipulate a bit. Yes, with his coins, the Trump coin and Melania coin, that was obviously manipulation. But they can do that. And in the USA, more stock-related, it's very interesting. There are many congressmen who with a salary of maybe 150,000 to 175,000 dollars a year have a portfolio of 20 or 50 million. How does that happen? There's a famous tracker called the Nancy Pelosi Tracker. She's a congresswoman in the USA. She and her husband have a huge fortune. She invests, she trades, and she's always right. She has a fortune of 200 million, with that salary. That's brutal. There's really manipulation from the official side. For me that's manipulation when I know how it's set up. For example, she invested heavily in Nvidia, the chip manufacturer, and two days later a law came out that extremely favored Nvidia. Naturally Nvidia went up and she made a fortune. That's really crazy. But there are official trackers you can follow. That's the good thing nowadays. You have screeners. But with all the long and short heatmaps, you can look at it and draw your conclusions. That's not always right either, they also get washed out sometimes. But you can draw conclusions.
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Kevin1:01:11
Yes. Yes. Cool. Thanks for sharing your perspective on all this. I'm sometimes really lost and I'm always glad when someone like my friend or my brother asks questions and everything stays cool, everything stays easy. Exactly.
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Andreas Wahl1:01:38
Yes. I also think regarding the topic... there are many people who are very skeptical about stock trading. Stock trading itself isn't a sin.
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Kevin1:01:50
How do you deal with it when you obviously lose?
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Andreas Wahl1:02:00
I always ask myself, why don't people have a view like yours? And still speculate with everything because it has to do with responsibility, how you handle it. That's of course... I've traveled a lot around the world. It's a very narrow-minded view, especially from us Europeans. In the USA and Asia it's completely different. In the EU, at least in Switzerland, you can judge it similarly. I think it's similar. In Germany, through the mainstream and media, fears are always fueled. The big issue there is stocks. In Germany there's only the statutory pension. So analogous to Switzerland, the AHV, the first pillar. The second pillar barely exists in Germany. Although many companies have one voluntarily. But generally there's no mandatory one. And in Switzerland the second pillar pension fund is usually heavily invested in stocks, which is a very good component. So the Swiss are already more used to stocks performing well over time. In Germany it's completely different. Statutory insurance has no stock component, and in the mainstream media only the negative points are mentioned: too risky, too volatile, too fluctuating. Don't risk your pension for the future generation, it's much too risky. And you notice especially in Germany the last one or two weeks, politicians are coming out saying with your stock market crash, 20% down, all the money would be gone. That's what they're saying, fed through journalists and politicians, and most people believe it. Especially the people who experienced such a crash and got out. But over time, many investors always say: volatility is vitality. You need a certain amount of volatility to be vital, to grow. Because if it's boring, like the Swiss franc, nothing happens. Nothing happens downward and nothing upward. You won't get rich with a currency, you won't get rich with a government bond. Volatility is vitality. You just need it. Now in the EU, in some countries, or in Europe in some countries, basically the Germans, Austrians, maybe also the Swiss are a bit too conservative. Look at the Scandinavian countries, Norway, Sweden, they have sovereign pension funds which are heavily stock-driven and have been mega successful over the years. I believe it's through the mainstream that most people see it as the devil's work. And I try to convince people in my circle to invest. But if someone doesn't want to, okay, that's your thing. No one has to do it. No one will be forced. I also want to say something about the USA. Yes, exactly. In the USA, people are much more capital-conscious. Much more capital-conscious. Americans fundamentally invest much more in stocks. May I add? Yes, please. They also have extremely high stock components in their retirement plans. Even more extreme than a Swiss pension fund. There's an interesting fun fact. In the USA there's a company called Home Depot, a hardware store operator. Like Bauhaus or Obi in Germany. Home Depot is the company where the most employees are millionaires. And they're not millionaires because Home Depot pays them so well, but because they all had a good stock package from the company that grew extremely over the years. That's why Americans have a completely different mindset. And that's why I believe with the whole geopolitical issue right now, Americans will climb on Trump and his team's roof if stocks rise again. Because it's about performance, and no one wants that on their record. Asians are anyway very active in those areas. The Chinese, Thais, Vietnamese, Filipinos I've personally met are real gamblers. They don't know anything else. So maybe with stocks and crypto it's also exaggerated, but they're really gamblers. We're very safety-conscious here, especially the Germans and Swiss. The Germans maybe because of their past with the Deutsche Mark, which was a very strong currency. Now the euro unfortunately isn't at all. But the Deutsche Mark was very good. Austria with the schilling was also a great currency. And now we have a crappy currency. You Swiss are doing well with the Swiss franc.
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Kevin1:07:50
We're doing better than we think.
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Andreas Wahl1:07:56
Yes. Crazy. Ah, that's so much knowledge, it's crazy. You can really feel that you're fully into the topic and it's a real passion. Yes, I've been involved for 20 years, for 16 years very intensively, now mega intensively actually only. And yes, I hope that I can help some people in this area. I've already helped some people. I hope I can help more. I wish you that... that you really become a person of impact. Like Andreas in 2008. Yes, hopefully. Hopefully Andreas from 2008 doesn't come back. Yes, cool. I'm starting coaching more intensively now and I would be happy if one or two people want to spend some time with me, maybe have an intense exchange. I'm on LinkedIn under Wahl Invest and Coaching GmbH. Hopefully also soon on your platform, Kevin and colleagues. And then we'll get started. It would be great if I could coach and mentor one or two colleagues. And otherwise, I can only advise everyone: close your eyes and hold on, stay relaxed, those who are invested. Only invest in things you understand. No matter what, stocks, cryptocurrencies, preferably only Bitcoin, nothing else. Invest only in what you understand, but stay relaxed, get through this phase, and even if it goes down further, if you have money on the side, no investment advice, but I would add more.
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Kevin1:09:51
Great. Hey, mega happy, super great conversation.
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Andreas Wahl1:09:55
Okay, thank you. Bye.