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Paul Rowley
Executive Vice President, Diamond Trading, De Beers

Biggest Diamond Miner De Beers On CNBC TV18 || Commodity Champions

🎥 May 10, 2018 📺 CNBC-TV18 ⏱ 20m 👁 157 views
Watch the exclusive interview of Paul G Rowley, Executive VP Of De Beers - the biggest Diamond producer of the world. Rowley shares his views on the Diamond picture in India. CNBC-TV18 is India's No.1 Business medium and the undisputed leader in business news. The channel's benchmark coverage extends from corporate news, financial markets coverage, expert perspective on investing and management to industry verticals and beyond. CNBC-TV18 has been constantly innovating with new genres of programming that helps make business more relevant to different constituencies across India. India's most a...
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Transcript (48 segments)
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Narrator0:00
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Host0:14
Welcome back. In this segment we are now joined by Paul Rowley from De Beers. Paul, hi, it's good to see you here in India. We often say the price is always right. Paul, what is your sense? I mean, the industry seems to be going through various changes right now. There is this whole NPA conversation, financing, credit — there is a bit of a problem here. How have you taken note of that? What are your observations? Because there's a couple of things — I think we talked about the industry having a couple of problems and we shouldn't be accepting them.
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Paul Rowley0:42
I don't think it's particular to the diamond industry. I think at the moment there's probably a few NPA problems across many different contexts of industry. From our perspective, we've been on a journey for quite a while, actually. I think one of the biggest issues is ensuring that we have greater transparency. Certainly from a De Beers perspective, when we launched our latest sight holder contract back in 2014, we were very much around the fact that we wanted to ensure greater compliance to IFRS stock audits, making sure there's greater transparency to ensure that our sight holders — specifically on the broader industry's bank loans in the future. So we've been on this journey for a while, but let's face it, it doesn't happen overnight, and I think we have to understand that we're getting better.
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Host1:22
You heard the whole industry and you heard the ministers as well. So what do you think are the learnings India needs to pick from your experience? What other solutions to take in?
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Paul Rowley1:32
I think it's a collaboration. I think that's a learning coming from me — there's no one side going to fix this on its own. We need to see the industry coming together both with government from a regulatory perspective, but also the banks need to come to the party as well. I think it's about how we make this work for the whole industry. This industry is tremendously important to India — as I said earlier, 70% of all diamonds by value are manufactured here, and likely it's going to continue in that perspective. So it's desperately important to De Beers and the mining industry as well, and we want to be a part of that discussion. As I said, we've started on this road of transparency. I think from our customer base, we're certainly on the right journey — well over 60% are now compliant, and certainly by the end of this financial year we'll see the rest of them. We hope all of them — if not, then we'll obviously lose a couple of clients — but certainly the majority will meet financial compliance, which I think will help the whole industry as well and will be something to hopefully emulate throughout the rest of the secondary parties.
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Host2:28
Paul, I also want to speak to you about the overall diamond industry globally as well. What has been the demand-supply numbers? What has been the growth, if you may, in the last couple of years?
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Paul Rowley2:38
Really, look, we've had a couple of different years, if you like. If you recall going back to 2015, we did see a dip in global demand for diamonds. It was part of the overall change, particularly in China, which we saw the greatest impact. But we've been on a gradual recovery from that. I think perhaps from an India perspective, one of the issues has been more around the midstream noise. As I said, I think we had a little bit too much polish within the midstream — we'd over-supplied with over-manufactured product. And I think the last two years have been about finding the right balance. For me, coming into this year, it really is the fact that I think that balance is coming into play. We now need to make sure that we make the best of it.
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Host3:15
What are the major consuming countries like right now, and where do you see the maximum buying growth coming from?
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Paul Rowley3:20
The US remains by far the strongest consumer, and in fact some of the recent changes — certain tax reforms in the States — has created additional income for our consumers, and we're seeing that actually play through. So America is about 50% of the market. I think what's really encouraged at the moment is seeing China come back again — we've seen positive growth there. And likewise, I think India is an exciting consumer market. Basically, I mean domestically, I don't think we're seeing it come to its true potential — a long way.
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Host3:52
How's the brand doing there really, and what plans do you have for India right now? What is the growth trajectory from here on?
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Paul Rowley3:58
Look, we haven't seen significant growth in India — that's been disappointing. I'm not entirely sure why that is, but we certainly plan to come back with trying to market more. When I say we haven't seen growth, I mean as an overall industry. I have to say that the Forevermark brand, the De Beers brand, has done exceptionally well — it's really taking off. And I think we're seeing certainly a younger set of consumers starting to buy diamonds in a different way. But clearly the majority of product in India is the wedding part of the jewellery, and I think that's still consistent. We want to see that growing more, getting more excited about the product. And with that, we're doing a much greater marketing campaign in India as well. We're working with the Diamond Producers Association and the Gem & Jewellery Council in order to invest a little bit more and really try and bring diamonds back to life as well — also for the millennial generation.
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Host4:42
Paul, every time we talk about jewellery, it always is segregated in the sense of gold jewellery and then gems and diamond jewellery, etc. And we've always seen perhaps more impetus for the gold jewellery rather than for diamonds, because that is a standardised product. Do you always feel that competition coming in?
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Paul Rowley4:58
I'm not sure it's competition — they're quite different purchases. I think gold is bought for two reasons in India: one is from a jewellery perspective, but also from a longer-term investment perspective. Diamonds are very much around the jewellery — it's around the adornment. I think we need to see greater differentiation. I think there's some exciting opportunities coming in India around different design. I think we're seeing both traditional and almost a fusion of European and Western design coming together. I think that's what's really exciting for the whole diamond industry here.
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Host5:24
Okay, I also want to come back to the financing part. How has that been in Indian markets? Of course we've gone through some rough patches here, but globally, have you faced those simulations as well?
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Paul Rowley5:34
Yeah, we've seen a retraction from some of the major banks — Standard Chartered has been one that has pulled back, and ABN and others have kind of reduced some of their exposure. On the other hand, we see new banks coming to market, particularly out of Dubai. And also we've seen alternative forms of investment — bonds and the transparency that's been created in a number of our sight holders taking a very different approach to financing, much more long-term outside investment. And I think that's the future — it's a mixture of both. It's all about confidence. You know, if that transparency is there, then we feel confident enough to invest. And I think that's where the diamond industry needs to continue on its journey — maturing to basically a normalised business.
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Host6:10
And how have the investments been? Because we've seen a lot of sectors being under-invested — whether it has been oil or industrial metals, etc. How has the diamond mining sector been?
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Paul Rowley6:19
We've been investing heavily in mines where we have to ensure those repairs, and it is profitable. Yes, it is. Obviously, De Beers has had a reasonably good couple of years, to be honest. But at the same time, we're investing heavily in Venetia in South Africa — it's a billion dollars of investment that we've put into that — and likewise into Jwaneng, similar amounts, to make sure that we've got diamond supplies going into the future. The diamond industry is a very long-term industry, a bit like the product — it's about relationships in the long term. The investment is the same: you don't get a return immediately. But we're very confident that diamonds are here forever.
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Host6:55
So Paul, you know, India of course is the biggest market when it comes to cutting and polishing of diamonds, and as you said, is growing in terms of consumption as well. If you had to make a presentation — if you had to hold a conversation with the bankers or the ministry here — what would really that be?
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Paul Rowley7:09
Well, we do hold those conversations regularly with the bankers, and clearly the journey we've been on has been very well supported by the bankers. We go to a number of conferences. I think it really is about that continued transparency, understanding your customer. I think one of the issues we've mentioned to most banks is: we don't invest in the industry — you invest in a business, in a company. You know, as was being mentioned, from the interior the Indian industry has, right now diamonds perhaps is just 1% of it. But it really is about the perception — how does one change that? What diamonds are — they're a very valuable product, they're a very emotional product, and they tend to be very focused. To one extent that's a great thing because that's about marketing. But I think it is about looking at it as a business, and as I said, as an industry we need to make sure we are transparent and we need to make sure that banking and financial institutions — we don't just look at the whole industry, don't look at a few bad apples in the pot, so to speak. Let's look at the whole, and that's really then coming to understand each business on its own merits. Let's do our due diligence to make sure that we understand them and then invest in them. There's some really good companies out there doing it exceptionally well, particularly in India.
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Host8:17
So if I had to tell you to come out with the challenge or the opportunity that the sector stands on right now, what would that be?
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Paul Rowley8:22
I think we've got a great growth opportunity. As I said, we've got one of the best platforms at the beginning of this year that we've had for a number of years, where we see ourselves in balance. The opportunity for me is how do we take that forward, and that is about creating trust — trust in our banking, trust in our businesses, trust for our consumers. So it's all about trust at the end of the day, and transparency.
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Host8:42
Absolutely. Paul, one final question — and my company is buying diamonds — I understand it's not always about investment when it comes to diamonds, but what really has been the price increase for diamonds in the last couple of years, and is there a projection that you're working with?
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Paul Rowley8:54
Look, I think we've seen polished prices really slightly weaker for five years, and certainly in the beginning of this year we've seen the opposite trend. So as demand and supply comes into balance, I think we're seeing polished prices rise, which is a good thing — it gives us all much more confidence. And they seem to be very, very stable at the moment. Likewise, that's pulling through rough prices as well, which, from a mining perspective, is encouraging. And when I look at the demand-supply into the future, I see a very optimistic view of the world. I think we're going to be in balance — our operations are set to literally mine to demand. So we think we've got back to that balance. It's about making sure we maintain that — not over-supply or under-supply — making that equally balanced.
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Host9:38
Just a final question — I'm going to squeeze the same: are there any new mines coming up? How is the competition? How has the global demand-supply balance been? I mean, as you said you are looking to balance that, but how has investment from other companies, other countries really been?
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Paul Rowley9:55
No, they're not coming recently. We, as I said, did close one mine in Canada, but then again we opened a new one in Botswana. We constantly, from a diverse perspective, have investments in exploration, and we're looking both in countries where we're operating and further afield. There are projections — not ourselves, but another producer — opening up a new mine, probably three or four years or so. But that's something you'll find every day. And a lot more of our investment is in ensuring that the assets we have, which are world-class, that we look after those assets to make sure that we've got longer-term supply into the future as well. Not to say that we're not constantly looking for new opportunities and new mines, and the technology is not far away.
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Host10:33
Because De Beers recently has gotten into blockchain as well — digitally, you know, tracking the diamonds. How has that been? How has that change been, and how is that going to change the industry?
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Paul Rowley10:44
Look, I think there's a lot around provenance — understand where your diamonds come from, and ensuring that again that transparency is there. Blockchain will, we believe, certainly offer that going forward. It will ensure that at a consumer level you can be confident that your natural diamond has come from where you believe it to have come from. We're not fully there with the technology yet — we're still in a pilot case. We've announced ahead of time, we're investing a lot of effort in ensuring that we can really give consumer confidence to our product and create that chain of custody all the way through. So it's an exciting opportunity. The technology isn't working as it should be yet, and I think technology will come to the fore more and more in the industry. We've seen tremendous utilisation of technology in India and likewise in beneficiation, in cutting and polishing. But the next stage is also marketing — how is the internet playing? How do we make sure that we've got omnichannel coming through the system? So the whole space in which we operate within diamonds is as exciting as anything else, and we need to be right at the forefront.
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Host11:39
It sure is, and so it's blockchain and technology putting two together — I think it's very, very exciting. Well, thank you so much for taking time out for us. It really has been great talking to you.
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Paul Rowley11:47
Thank you. Real pleasure. Thank you very much.
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Narrator11:50
Weekly doses of what's brewing in this space. I'm Anish Gupta, and it has been a week for the crude oil prices to move further higher as geopolitical concerns loom. Missiles were exchanged between Iran and Syria, and the US reimposed sanctions on Iran as it walks out of the multinational Iran nuclear accord. US inventories have seen a decline when it comes to crude and gasoline. Moreover, the Energy Information Administration has raised its pricing outlook for crude and gasoline. But when we move to metals, it is copper which actually is trading on the higher side due to a fall in inventories, but aluminium has actually seen another trend — it has seen a decline after Japan says it is replacing supplies from Russia to other markets. To discuss this and more, we are now joined by Jonathan Parata from Fyers Alliance. Jonathan, hi, good to have you.
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Host12:40
Let's start off with the Iran nuclear deal being called off by the US. Would you say that has been factored into the prices, because we have seen a very volatile week — this one — or would you say that this will play out for the next three or four months yet?
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Jonathan Parata12:54
Well, look, I think it's — I mean, only last night we heard that Iran accused the US. Iran was accusing the US, the US was accused for the increase in the prices. So there's a bit of tit-for-tat at the moment in terms of who actually caused this price increase. But I think at the end of the day, it's a combination of quite a few things.
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Host13:17
Jonathan, what do you expect then in the next few months? I mean, what kind of cues would you be watching at? What do you think the other signatories would do in the next 180 days, which we understand is going to be quite important?
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Jonathan Parata13:34
Well, I think it depends where the market really is driving the price. I get a sense that everyone seems to be comfortable at certain levels. I think Iran said they're comfortable around 60-65. Iran have said the same. Russia, I think, has turned around and said it'd use a better price. Look, at the end of the day, a higher price benefits all the players — and all the players except the consumers. And that certainly feels sorry for our friends in India, because that's a bit of an issue with oil prices continuing to trend higher.
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Host14:07
So what is your sense then on the crude oil prices? Where are they headed from here on? Because almost everybody has reiterated on higher crude oil prices for the rest of 2018. Are you in the same category?
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Jonathan Parata14:17
So there's a lot of uncertainty there. I think when you really look through it, I think we can continue to see prices move higher, you know, up until we see other economies or demand start to come a little bit off. But we've seen some of the macros coming in still support increased demand. Let's see what the US can do in terms of production. Let's see what OPEC starts to say about the capital supply cuts. But I do think that if prices do start to go higher, you'll get a bit of a situation where people are saying prices at these levels aren't sustainable. And I think we're already starting to see part of that, particularly when Saudi Arabia came out the other night and said oil prices should be a lot lower from where they are. So I think you'll see more of that situation. I don't think everyone wants to see prices too much higher — obviously that's where they're at — but if they get too high, there's still a few levers that can be pulled in terms of getting prices back into the normal.
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Host15:18
So what is your sense on the crude prices as per se, Jonathan? Are you looking at levels of 80 to 85? Do you see the prices going there, sustaining there, or would you say that we've pretty much done on the upside now?
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Jonathan Parata15:33
75 to 80 is an area where I think you start to come into resistance. You know, we're seeing prices move ever so slightly higher. In the past, let's look at what the main drivers were — they're continuing at the moment. It's geopolitical concerns, and I think once those geopolitical concerns get out of the way, then we can see a good solid macro picture develop. And if that macro picture develops in terms of more demand, as the OPEC suggested it would, then prices at these levels are sustainable. But having said that, when you look at that 80 to 85, I think people would be uncomfortable, or economies would be uncomfortable with prices sustaining at those levels.
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Host16:15
Well, that's about the crude oil prices — not going to be comfortable around 80-85 dollars per barrel. But another area that has been buzzing quite a bit really, Jonathan, has been the metals space. Where do you see the metal prices moving now? What fundamentals are you watching at? Because it is still a playing story when it comes to US sanctions, US import tariffs, etc. So while copper seems to have some strength, aluminium clearly has performed in a very different direction this week.
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Jonathan Parata16:40
I think at the moment, the focus is obviously on the copper inventories where we've seen a good draw there, and that indicates there's more demand. A lot of the draw has been fed into China, and when we look at the policy of China — you know, One Belt One Road policy — we get a sense that demand is still there. We look at copper, and we feel copper is a real good performer this year, and we'd expect prices to go through that 7,000 to 7,500 dollars a ton. It all feels good for this year for that to occur, so I'm quite confident that copper will trade higher, and of course I see that demand continuing from China.
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Host17:22
What's your sense on aluminium and nickel? Because these are the two metals which actually saw multi-year highs after the US sanctions on Russian miners. How are you looking at both of these? Is there more strength coming in, or would you look at some more profit-taking?
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Jonathan Parata17:37
I think it's getting very close to being played out. But I do get a sense that the US might always put a bit of a curveball in there — let's see what happens. Obviously there are still concerns there, we still need to see more detail as to what's actually occurring there. But I think the markets need to be quite comfortable that they feel they know what will occur, and as a result, prices obviously do have to normalise. And I think that's what we need to see at the moment — more of a normalisation — and then let's see what's delivered to the market by the Trump administration.
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Host18:10
I also want to talk to you about the precious metals, Jonathan, because we have seen very strong support coming at 1,300, but on the higher side as well we have seen resistance at 1,323, and gold hasn't been able to take on the higher side.
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Jonathan Parata18:25
I get a sense that the market has just forgotten it for the time being. But as you correctly pointed out, very good support on the better side. So I think you are trading it — I wouldn't be trading the range, but I'd be trading it from the long side, because I think the market will in fact start to wake up. You don't get oil prices move up 40% and not see the potential for inflation to start to pick up or any price pressures to the topside. I think investors have just forgotten gold, but I think when we start to see a little bit more read, a little bit more into space, and I guess in the US, in terms of interest rates starting to move up, then I think the investors will go back to gold. So I'm playing gold from the long side. I am long at the moment, and I'm certainly looking for big things once we see that 1,350 to 1,360 broken on the top side, because that's a true signal that we're going to see a lot more higher prices.
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Host19:21
All right, so you're playing gold on the long side. Jonathan, what are you doing with silver, though? Because that clearly has underperformed gold and the other industrial metals also.
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Jonathan Parata19:30
Yeah, I think once again — when you look at the gold-silver ratio, it's showing silver is a little bit of an underdog. It's not really performing the way I'd like it to perform. I think it's being dragged up by some of the whites as well. We had a few concerns there, but those have come under pressure as well, and you'd find that silver would also come under pressure. So I think a little bit of a lag, but overall, I think when you look at all the precious metals, they seem to not be a focus, and as a result of that they tend to languish, and that's what we see.
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Host20:00
All right, so we'll take your word for that. The gold-silver ratio, of course, seems positive and perhaps is a place to go long on. Jonathan, thank you so much for joining us and giving us strategies for all of those commodities for the coming week as well. But with that, it's all the time that we have on this edition of Commodity Champions. Thank you for watching.
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Narrator20:24
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