Mathieu Friedberg30:13
It's like in all areas: you have the precursors, then those who watch, and those who are disinterested for now. But looking at our portfolio overall, five years ago versus today, the issue is clearly more pressing. We're now seeing tenders where if you don't have a low-carbon offering, you're not selected. That's for the precursors. Including here in Africa, though probably a bit less, it's not yet the top priority. But when you have a global tender, maritime routes to Africa are included too. So some players are truly at the forefront.
The big question everyone is circling around is the cost of decarbonization. Maritime transport decarbonization is estimated at 1,500 billion. No single economic actor can bear that alone. So the question is what will be the fair distribution of the effort if we want to succeed. Consumers will certainly have to pay a bit more at some point. Regarding concepts like nearshoring and reshoring, which we can translate as proximity logistics or shortening distances, is that the solution going forward? That leads us to our next theme.
I don't know if it's the solution going forward, but I think it's something unfolding before our eyes. With the reemergence of tariffs and similar measures, we've seen the generalized concept of China Plus One emerge. China remains a major sourcing zone and the leading manufacturing nation, but companies are de-risking by developing second sources. We've seen Southeast Asia emerge significantly, Vietnam in particular, also with Chinese capital. Indonesia, Thailand, which has had Japanese capital in automobiles for some time. Turkey is now an important industrial base near Europe. Morocco. So it will be multipolar. I don't think China will be completely replaced. It will continue to play a major role thanks to its industrial power. As Tim Cook explained in a LinkedIn interview, he doesn't go to China for cheap labor; he goes because they've developed industrial capacity, technical know-how, and human resources, engineer training that he can't find elsewhere. That's the whole package. But to limit distances and delivery times, we may need to make consumers pay more, tax products coming from far away. We see the debate in France about small parcels from Chinese platforms. A fully decarbonized supply chain costs more than a carbonized one as it exists today. But what's true today may not be true tomorrow, because economies of scale, innovation, and new capabilities might bring gains we don't yet suspect. There's a virtuous moment when you shift into a new paradigm and yesterday's economic truths that seemed prohibitive may not be as harsh as we imagine.