FOCUS - Via della Seta, l'analisi dell'ingegner Gianpietro Benedetti, presidente del Gruppo Danieli.

There was an attempt, in my view, by the government to gain some advantage from China's Belt and Road planning. I noted that of the opportunities offered, poker is true, from the 20 billion euros in planned agreements, we limited ourselves to two and a half. Today we saw that France, Germany, critics, etc., concluded 30 billion for the bases. So, in summary, we highlight a poor ability of the Italian industrial production system to take adequate advantage of this Silk Road.

I leave to everyone the deductions that can be made about our ability to think and have a vision of the future. To those who see this as a sort of horse that the Chinese are using, what do you respond? To some extent it is true, but it is as true as our weakness. It is clear that a country with 2,300 billion in debt that cannot fix the annual debt increase, which last year was not 50 billion because we don't reform, we don't do anything, we continue to spend for nothing, etc., etc. It is clear that at a negotiating table, whether with Chinese, French, or Germans, you have little to say because you are weak.

Because it fits into the Chinese mentality. The Chinese, in their commercial programming, start from countries in weaker situations to invest, to step on, or to buy. Evidently, they then hold you in check, like when you have a debt you can't pay, you are at the mercy of the usurer who asks for increasing interest, 5, 10, 15, 20, and so on. Normal. This relationship, however, might not please the markets. It always depends on how you end up managing public spending, debt, and industrial vision for the country.

The general characteristic of the Chinese, even private individuals like people from the coastal areas south, is to think about the future in the medium to long term. They are not used, by nature, I don't know why, probably for genetic reasons, to improvise day by day like we do. They have repeated a slogan multiple times that is not written anywhere: we decided to decrease speed for production increase, we decided to increase speed for quality, technology, and environment increase. This fits well with Danieli, which is particular, and also for FINMA, meaning that the first moment of market war on simple economic things is over. They have started fighting on high technology, universities are working on it, student selection and engineers, technicians are dedicated to this. This year, 240,000 top-class engineers sent to all the best universities in the world, so there is a programming of knowledge, consistency, a development program that will go ahead hyperbolically in the next 5-10 years. They have reinstated the one-child policy, realizing it was an error, as decreasing population reached a point where they couldn't support productivity and continuity in paying pensions, while becoming old. So they reviewed this, and the only solution is to expand cultivation and agriculture, moving it to Africa, which will become the agri-food reservoir for China, and so on.

Yes, this is typical of the Chinese mentality, in the sense that a Chinese person, even with a clear objective in mind, tends to smooth the relationship, and it is typical for them to talk about win-win, which is true, it is a possibility. You will have a win-win relationship with them only if it is interesting from a technological and competitiveness point of view. In that case, you have a win-win relationship and can take a small part of their development plan. In the opposite case, it's better to forget it, not even try.

Not having arrived first from a calendar visit point of view is true, but the fact that the next day France signed 30 billion means we are not in the first or second place. There is something. Now, I don't know what will happen with Merkel, but everything is already planned, so if Macron was laughing with Conte, it's because, evidently, I don't know if the Germans plan to expand the port of Hamburg further. I visited it from a helicopter above, you see square kilometers of Chinese goods arriving by ship or train for years without any scandal. I don't understand why the scandal must be made for Trieste. So our destiny, if not controlled or influenced by Abu Dhabi, if we move a bit to make some small interest for ourselves, protests and speeches arise, but in the end, they have an objective to condition us for the benefit of others. So it's worth trying, worth trying, understanding that we need to put the rest in order, thinking that we need a more efficient system, an industrial vision that has been missing for years. But not now with Di Maio's government; the others, politicians, do not intend to. Industrial vision has been missing in this country for years. Instead, up to five years ago, they told us industry is dead, long live services. Incredible, in any slightly civilized country, it is understood that services exist if there are large industries. Without large industries, what services? And also, added value, and how much do people in services earn? A thousand euros a month. This reflection would probably require more space.

The situation was incredible. I was discussing it with the lady we signed a contract with, a member of the Politburo of China, a strong woman with vision, later CEO of something with 12 billion, I don't remember when she commented on the first trips to China. There was only one hotel in Beijing, the Jing Lütel, where I casually saw Chinese antiquities being sold, from the Mao era when people despised precious things, etc. So they sold them in the hotel as if they were series items, with lacquer of originality and eyes for few lire. Then, after a few years, I returned to Canton and Shanghai and saw the same things multiplied 80, 100, 200, 300 times, having gained awareness. There was no noise when traveling inside China because cats, dogs, and birds were all eaten due to hunger. This I was discussing, and things have changed. There is no more misery; Poland is improving, so the Chinese government, on average, though the absolute does not exist, is doing well and creating an economic power that will have its say in the next 20 years. And the reception for foreign capital companies was bad until recently, but now it is improving progressively. And regarding a theme dear to Danieli, that of intellectual property protection, the lady mentioned that it has improved. We recently won a case precisely for patent protection, so from this point of view, steps forward have been made.

These agreements depend on Germany, which are a bit variable. The Chinese, when they make an agreement and shake hands, it's a done deal practically. I have never witnessed a Chinese person reneging on an agreement or a handshake. This is an ancient thing; losing face for them is unbearable. So now I believe that order will continue, we hope, but it depends in the end on the Lager bags, who at the moment confirm it. But it's not so much the order that matters, but since these gentlemen on the Silk Road have invested only those two or three who were there, in total, I don't know how much, 120 billion lire, those two or three who were there, lira or euros, we try to form win-win alliances with Conquista Team, which is authorized by the central government to invest on the Silk Road, to collaborate and participate in some way, have a small part financed by the Chinese, because the German order we had signed three years ago was not financeable by Italian SACE, so we preferred to go to the Chinese rather than lose everything. The Chinese take the order for 1,100, we are subcontractors for 400, at least we do something, and we hope to do it in other countries.

There are those who can offer interesting combinations to them regarding technology and the market, certainly. They can offer units and opportunities because they have decided to invest, but it still seems impossible. There is a certain distrust for the language, for the mentality of taking large plants from the Chinese, and they know this very well, so they are content. Instead, they finance, risking to make 60 or 70 out of 100, if someone can give them support to do the work in a certain country. This is the concept. In addition to support, they also give technology and reference for the next job in that country, which they can do alone. Let me say one last thing, the convivial part, the ceremonial, the great dinner at the Quirinal with presidents, representatives of the government, what climate was breathed? Positive, it's usual. From the Quirinal climate, to provincial people like myself, I noted the predominance of state-owned enterprises, practically, and it was even laughable the contract exchange, excluding Shanghai Electric when Shanghai Electric is already the owner of 48% of Ansaldo. Then there was Pirelli, which is Chinese, there was Elkann, Fiat, which is not Italian, and therefore, large private industries, I didn't see any. So large Italian companies that can act as icebreakers even for small companies and drive exports are practically disappearing, we are at 90% of disappearance if it continues to race. We hope to be the last.