Cemil Ertem - Ekonomi Gazeteciliği

Thank you, friends. Hello. I'm an economist, and I work mainly in media. I spend most of my time there, and the rest on teaching or book projects when I have them. Essentially, I make a living by writing economics. I'm a professional economist. Now, I don't know how many of you here want to do economic journalism. We can categorize it into two areas today. But let me say: you might not want to specialize in economics—you might prefer foreign policy, like our valuable colleague Akın Bey just presented, or even entertainment journalism. No field in journalism is trivial, but economics will help you in all of them. Without learning economics, you can't even do entertainment journalism. For example, the İbrahim Tatlıses incident—when he was shot, everyone wanted to know who did it and why. The background is largely economic: Turkey's underground economy and mafia economy. Without understanding that, you can't report on such events. So economics is a field every journalist should know, at least the basic concepts, even if they don't go deep. But first, I want to briefly discuss where economics is going today and how economic journalism can be categorized, then we'll move to my presentation. Until 15–20 years ago, Turkish newspapers didn't have dedicated economics pages or teams. Why? Because newspaper revenue came mainly from sales, not advertising. Advertisers were few and unorganized. But as advertising grew, newspapers started relying on it, and economic journalism turned into a kind of PR—covering a CEO's news or a holding's investments, or reporting on a trip they sponsored. That's not real economic journalism. Real economic journalism explains the causes, developments, and consequences of events—like the European crisis. To report on Spain's unemployment, you need to understand its causes. In the coming years, this type of analytical journalism will become more important. Also, in this age of rapid communication and seemingly unlimited information, everyone learns about developments instantly. Social media like Twitter and Facebook are pushing journalism toward greater originality. That's an undeniable reality. So where will you find your unique value? In specialization. I said this last year when I taught this course and insisted on it, though some colleagues disagreed. If you don't see it this way, journalism—not just economics—isn't a profession, it's a job. First you need a profession. I call myself a professional economist even though I work mainly in media. You could be in health, sports, or economics, but you should know that field to a professional level beyond just journalism. That's crucial because social media has reached a point where anyone can announce a development. You need to differentiate yourself so that a media outlet wants to hire you. Otherwise, you may not find work. Also, the 21st century is different from the 20th: individuals can now be more influential than nation-state media empires, thanks to the internet. Now let me quickly go through our presentation. Here's a graph—don't let it scare you. Learning to read graphs is a big advantage. Once you can, you've already made progress. This is a stock chart: the Nasdaq, showing U.S. tech stocks from 2001 to 2010. You see Apple (green), Nasdaq (blue), Google, New York Times, and GCI (a firm with major investments in the UK and US). Compare the New York Times and GCI lines with Apple and Google. Apple and Google represent alternative media. They show a huge leap—Apple's returns jumped about 3,000% in ten years. That shows how dramatically the new media concept grew geometrically. Google started as an information consolidation network, then mobile, and it had about a 500% return. Meanwhile, traditional media like the New York Times and GCI remained below zero. Can this continue? No, it's unsustainable for traditional media. So what should you do if you choose this profession? We keep hearing about layoffs at media outlets—more will come. The media is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The crisis we're experiencing is that kind of crisis. Look at Spain's 25% unemployment—it's staggering. Youth unemployment in Mediterranean Europe is even higher. This is a story of transformation: from industrial society to information society. The mismatch between education systems and the skills needed causes these problems. In Turkey, we often hear that unemployment isn't due to lack of jobs but lack of qualified labor. The same applies to media. If we can't train future journalists, or if you don't equip yourselves, you'll be condemned to joblessness. It's a harsh truth, but we have to say it. Traditional media is shrinking. Look at newspapers—I won't name names, but many are losing money. For example, Hürriyet suffered big losses this year and is consolidating. The era of media empires is ending. Remember February 28? Two media groups shaped its ideology: Doğan Group and Sabah-ATV Group. Both have undergone major changes—one changed ownership, the other is in financial trouble and may sell, but only the TV channels have buyers, not the newspapers. That proves my point. So new media demands serious specialization. You must specialize—there's no alternative. I assume most of you are undergraduates. After finishing your BA, definitely pursue a master's degree. In the next 10 years, as we debate Turkey's new education system, it emphasizes widespread education over formal education. I believe formal education has only 10–15 years left; widespread education will become dominant. You can train yourselves—the doors are open. Now let's look at another graph showing profit ratios for Germany, the US, and Japan—the three economies driving world GDP. We see that corporate profits have been declining steadily from just after WWII to 2000. The current crisis has been building step by step. For instance, Japan's profit drops are steeper and its rises higher—that reflects its focus on high-tech investment. Germany, a more traditional economy, had already low profits and a sharper decline. From this graph, an economist can deduce that the crisis isn't in Greece or Spain—it's right in the heart of Germany. Germany's traditional industry isn't renewing itself and has been declining until 2000. I'll show another graph later that makes this even clearer. Then I'll share a manipulation story from 1990 that you might remember. Similarly, look at this graph of basic materials: agriculture, base metals, and energy. Don't be intimidated. It shows how commodity prices behave during a crisis. When energy prices stay flat or rise, it signals recession danger. Base metals spiked in 2003, which paradoxically indicated a crisis. In all three areas, prices surge at the onset of a crisis—they go wild. For example, the rise in metals includes gold, which signals a flight from reserve currencies (euro and dollar) and the breakdown of the monetary system. This graph from 1948 to 2010 tells the whole story—a good economic journalist can see and explain the crisis from it. Here's another version related to GDP. Now, this graph shows the ratio of consumption to GDP. In Turkey, it's 72.6%—we consume a huge share of what we earn, which doesn't go into investment. But a high consumption ratio also indicates a strong middle class. In the US it's 62%, in China much lower because they save. The government often laments low savings—this graph explains that. Even if you don't want to do economic journalism, say you're interested in politics, you can't ignore this. To be a good political journalist, you need deeper knowledge than a party leader. For example, the AK Party has been in power for three terms, and even if the prime minister steps down, it will likely win again. The secret is this: the strength of consumption and the middle class. This projection from 2009 to 2025 shows the same. Without understanding this, you can't explain why the AK Party remains so powerful. Take February 28—that operation started because the traditional elite saw a new industrial class emerging in Anatolia, globally competitive without relying on state support or currency advantages. The story of February 28 began with the 1994 crisis and extended through 2001. If you can't see the whole picture, you can't do real economic journalism—you only pick up surface debris, like catching a shoe thrown into a lake instead of fish. We need to understand the direction of change. Where are we now? Like those 'You are here' maps in cities. You need to know where you're going, not just where you are. And also where we come from. I went to Sarajevo last month and was shocked to see the real crisis there. Everyone talks about Greece, Spain, or Europe, but the Balkans are in deep crisis. Why doesn't any economic journalist report it? Because there's no stock market, no trading. But people are jobless, the economy is broken, they can't find work, and they feel lucky if they can eat dinner. They look to Turkey for investment or aid, or hope the EU will fix things. We need journalists who highlight that crisis. That's it for now.

Now, when you differentiate, someone will see you and you will be rewarded. For instance, the US is no longer the sole ruler of the world. Look at Syria: a friend was explaining US imperialism as a serious thesis, claiming Turkey is being provoked to intervene in Syria. If a foreign policy writer puts that as news in their newspaper, I would fire them. That paradigm is gone. I say this not as a subjective view but as an academic and economist. I could talk about this until morning. There are axis countries: Turkey, Russia, Iran. The nuclear talks are starting. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister gave a statement saying they are hopeful for positive results. That is both an economy and foreign policy news. But it has diplomatic codes. For example, this graph shows a serious manipulation. From 1980 to 2010, the average profitability of German industry. In 1990, profits were low; after 1990 they peaked and then fell towards the crisis. What happened in 1990? East Germany was absorbed. The media at the time said Germany was suffering and needed help. But in reality, by absorbing East Germany, German industry increased its profits. Without that, it would have collapsed. Now look at the current crisis: similar manipulation. The media portrays Germany as the savior of Europe, but these are manipulations. This is like the purple cow story in advertising. If you don't do this, you cannot succeed in the new media order. There is Wikileaks, and then there are organizations like Stratfor that control and manipulate information. Which side will you be on? That is journalism. Specialization is key. For example, you need to be able to comment on an economic development without looking at Google or other commentators. If you can speak for 10 minutes on TV about a development, you are ready. The new era is post-Cold War. Journalism is now about refining and organizing shared information. Internet journalism in Turkey has developed to world standards. A friend came to me about a new magazine, only online. But a print magazine with artistic quality is still valuable. For aspiring economic journalists, I recommend the book 'Economic Indicators and Statistics Guide'. You need to understand basic concepts, time series, graphs, indices, national income calculations, inflation. Many news agencies confuse these concepts. Without basic economics knowledge, you will make errors. Also, there are two types of columnists: those who write positive about companies for money, and those who write only negative news. I told a former student who asked me to mention his company before an IPO that I only write negative news. For example, I write about Turkcell cheating customers, but not about their investments. That is my principle. You must choose what kind of journalist you want to be. I recommend being like Mustafa Sönmez from Cumhuriyet newspaper, though we disagree politically. He wrote a good article about pollution in the media kitchen. But don't be like that kind of economic journalism. Be independent. Ultimately, if you become an economic journalist as I describe, you can also be a columnist. At Taraf newspaper, I was a columnist for 3-5 years, and they did independent economic reporting. They made a great story about inequality in Asia's rapid growth. Finally, I will say: this is a very important change. Spain's crisis is deep and historically ironic. 500 years ago, Columbus set sail from Spain, and the West's domination over the East began. Now, similar dynamics: Spain's crisis may end 500 years of Western supremacy. China and Asia are producing technology, breaking the monopoly. The East-West equation is changing, and Turkey is among the axis countries. You must have a perspective, a methodology, to see the whole picture. Without that, you will get lost in details. Economic journalism is going through a critical period, but it is enjoyable and describes our era. I wish success to those who choose this field. Let's quickly move to questions.

Yes, let's move on quickly, friends. Yes.

No, no. TÜİK's credibility is much higher now. At this point, TÜİK's credibility in Turkey is significant. Yes, go ahead.

Now, magazines like The Economist, and many bank reports, publish numerous reports on the Turkish economy every day. These are evaluated by analysts and readers. Depending on your perspective, you can interpret them positively or negatively. For example, if hot money flows in and parks, that indicates confidence. On the negative side, hot money can leave suddenly. But I can give a thousand reasons why it won't leave suddenly now, unlike in the 1990s or 2000s. The Central Bank's policies prevent immediate outflow. So as an economist, I can see that negative Economist report as positive. Also, there is a problem of selective viewing. You need to look at these reports with that in mind.

I read that. If this crisis is a capitalist crisis, a food crisis may still occur. We know there will be serious problems ahead. Some regulations and measures should be taken but are not. So there is some truth in that, but I don't agree that only land-based economy and agriculture will be important. However, food issues and the renewal of humanity will cause serious problems, and agriculture will gain importance in that sense.

Let me explain a concept. Riba is forbidden in Islamic economics. Riba is not just interest; it has three dimensions: first, riba al-nasi'ah (interest) which is forbidden. Second, unequal exchange: if you employ a worker and don't give fair compensation, that is forbidden. Third, riba al-gharar: exchange of assets that have no real counterpart. Today, world GDP is about 6 trillion dollars, but before the 2008 crisis, inflated assets with no real backing were 600 trillion dollars, ten times GDP. That is a major cause of the crisis, and it falls under the third type of riba. In economic theory, interest is the time value of money, but in Islamic economics, interest is forbidden because it leads to non-productive exchange and speculation, and it also leads to unequal exchange. So these principles are important. In the future, Islamic economics and the prohibition of riba will gain importance, and the West will gradually apply them. Whether this is outside capitalism or within a free market is a separate debate. We are working on that. But let me cut here because it's a detailed topic.