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Cemil Ertem
Deputy Chairperson of the Board, Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası T.A.O. (VakıfBank)

Cumhurbaşkanı Başdanışmanı Cemil Ertem, Veyis Ateş'in sorularını yanıtlıyor

🎥 Mar 23, 2021 📺 Habertürk TV ⏱ 26m
Haberturk TV YouTube Kanalına Abone Ol ➤ http://hbr.tk/QNhqSs Cumhurbaşkanı Başdanışmanı Cemil Ertem, Veyis Ateş'in ...
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Transcript (13 segments)
H
Host0:00
I think everything will be fine, thank you. Now, you have been in your field for years with your writings and books, and also as a former governor, you can use many terms, but you also explain economics simply. In the last four months, three central bank governors have changed. Apart from political considerations, I want to ask you directly, in a way that someone not in economics can understand: Why have three governors changed in four months?
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Cemil Ertem0:43
Well, as you know, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is one of the most established institutions; its institutional structure is very deep-rooted and unique. Changing its governor does not affect that structure. It is the heart of the economy. The recent change is the discretion of our President. He may have preferred someone with years of banking experience. We have a floating exchange rate regime, meaning the central bank focuses on inflation, and the exchange rate is determined by global markets. The recent depreciation of the lira was not due to the change of governor but to global factors—the dollar strengthened against all emerging-market currencies, including the lira. There is no panic. The central bank has a clear monetary policy framework. The government’s economic program is built on production, investment, export, and employment. The recent market movements are normal fluctuations under a floating regime. I do not think there will be any issues.
H
Host11:16
I ask on behalf of those living on minimum wage who go to the market every day, educate their children, may have saved a few hundred dollars or not, and panic when the dollar rises, worrying about price increases and whether their salary will keep up. Can you say, as the President's chief economic advisor, 'Friends, there is no panic, in the long run things are independent of us, I'm working on it, relax, things are on track'? The central bank governor changes, but look at exports, investment, and employment.
C
Cemil Ertem12:16
Based on these four fundamentals—production, investment, export, and employment—the new economic program will be announced. The calendar will be revealed soon. Our central bank and other institutions are aligned with this new period. For example, VakıfBank recently completed a 1.75 billion dollar syndication loan with banks in the US, Europe, and Asia, showing international confidence in Turkey. This proves there is no external problem; Turkey has no balance of payments issue. All simulation scenarios are contradicted by such real transactions.
H
Host15:01
Now, about this issue—what happened to the 128 billion dollars? Also, yesterday Monday, there was talk of 450 million dollars—was it a purchase or a sale? What is this about? Do you have information on that? First, what is the 128 billion dollar matter?
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Cemil Ertem16:16
The central bank does not keep accounts on individual transactions like Mehmet Gezer. It does not have a personal account for a country's external debt. The 128 billion dollar figure is not calculated in the way some claim; I genuinely do not know how that number is derived. During the pandemic, the central bank made various interventions through legal open market operations, both directly and indirectly. Such discussions are unnecessary. In 1997-98, when the exchange rate was not determined by a floating regime, central banks could intervene in the market, but even then they could not fully control it. The Russian central bank tried and failed. Our central bank has acted appropriately. Now, regarding the AK Party congress: the President will deliver a strong message tomorrow about the economic manifesto, focusing on production, investment, export, and employment. I think a new period will begin, both politically and economically.
H
Host20:07
I understand you know but you are not saying. You can watch tomorrow. Okay, let's watch.
C
Cemil Ertem20:07
I think there will be many messages, and a new period will start now, both politically and economically.
H
Host20:23
In order not to skip this, from the opposition: this Monday evening, regarding the 450 million dollars, who bought and sold? Do you have news about this controversial issue?
C
Cemil Ertem20:23
Yes, there is one, and it is very big. From scientific economic discussions, I know that since Monday, about 5 to 6 billion dollars in sales have occurred on the corporate and individual side. We see a solution in these accounts. Therefore, I think we will not have a problem in the coming days. Trust is being built rapidly and will continue to be built. We will wait and see.
H
Host21:14
Many thanks, Cemil Ertem. Thank you, good.
Now, why have three central bank governors changed in four months? We are not economic journalists or experts, but I asked the question on behalf of citizens. He said relax, the important thing is what the government wants. He said the volatility is due to movements in Asia. For those living on minimum wage, I asked for a projection to feel reassured; he said be at ease. He also said the President will give important messages at the AK Party congress tomorrow—he knows but won't say, watch tomorrow. That's what we got from the President's chief advisor Cemil Ertem. Many thanks once again. Let's go to the parliament.
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