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Mathias Kiep
Chief Financial Officer (CFO), TUI AG (TUI Group)

TUI CFO Mathias Kiep on share price performance, profitability and dividend

🎥 Feb 28, 2025 📺 DER AKTIONÄR TV ⏱ 10m 👁 3308 views
TUI shares are under pressure: a falling share price, short sellers, and a problem child in the tour operator business – yet hotels and cruises are booming. How long will the turnaround take? Are the rising IT and marketing costs a misstep or a necessary step? Is a spin-off of the profitable divisions imminent, and when will dividends be paid again? In an interview with CFO Mathias Kiep, we discuss strategies, risks, and opportunities for 2025 – including a look at customer travel appetite and the question: Is TUI still competitive? This and much more awaits you in this interview – enjoy watc...
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Transcript (21 segments)
K
Kemper0:04
Dear viewers, welcome back to a new interview on Aktioner TV. Today we are talking about the tourism industry, specifically the company TUI. The stock price unfortunately hasn't performed as investors hoped in recent years. Our guest today is from TUI's board, Mr. Mathias Kiep, CFO. Mr. Kiep, thank you very much for taking the time for us. We want to start right away: The TUI stock is unfortunately one of the most shorted stocks in Germany. What do you say to investors who are worried about the ongoing price decline and especially to speculators who are betting on falling TUI prices?
M
Mathias Kiep0:50
Yes, thank you very much, Mr. Kemper, for the question. In fact, if we break it down, the feedback has been quite positive regarding developments in recent months. Since we completed the refinancing, simplified the stock structure, and returned to Frankfurt and the MDAX, the stock has developed well. But of course, as you mentioned, the absolute level and the stock reaction after our first quarter are not satisfactory. What can we do? We can continue to deliver. We've now had the tenth quarter of earnings growth, and this first quarter also contributes very well to our full-year guidance. We want to increase operating earnings by 7 to 10 percent this year. Those are essentially the facts we can offer. The nervousness in the market and the short selling are difficult for us to assess. What we see sometimes are technical effects; as the largest company in tourism, we are often lumped together with others. Nevertheless, it's important for us to consistently deliver results and achieve that 7-10% earnings growth on the 2024 result this year.
K
Kemper2:26
Do you think that's enough to win back investors, especially when looking at the stock prices of some of your competitors? They are performing significantly better. You also say that your numbers don't look too bad. We maybe have slightly slower bookings for summer 2025, but we'll get to that. But what do you say to investors who ask why they should invest in TUI when the competition has been doing better for years?
M
Mathias Kiep2:54
I think we've been hard to compare for years now. We went through COVID, we had invested massively to grow and were hit by the pandemic at the wrong time, and we've had to catch up in recent years. That's clear. Nevertheless, our integrated model is what we can offer. Last year we had the best result in company history, and the first quarter of 2025 was also the best first quarter. That speaks for itself and we can deliver that consistently. That's our task. You're right, the stock price is lagging, but now we are looking at other things: the hotel and cruise divisions. Both are profitable. The tour operator business, markets and airlines, remains the problem child. Why can't we make this core business more profitable?
K
Kemper4:46
What strategy can you pursue to make it profitable again? I ask from a financial shareholder perspective.
M
Mathias Kiep4:54
From a shareholder perspective, a key component is to grow the company without massively investing in liabilities. That means more dynamic, more flexibility in the markets business, and growing more through dynamic capacities than through own risk. For example, this year we kept the risk capacity practically at last year's level, even slightly lower for the full year. That means we are well positioned in this very competitive market where you cannot necessarily expect to gain more volume.
K
Kemper5:33
I just mentioned the hotel and cruise division. Have you ever thought internally or on the board about spinning off individual parts of the group and listing them separately, because you would certainly get a much better valuation?
M
Mathias Kiep5:54
I can refer to the past. The company worked hard to bring these two components together, and that's the only reason we can show this strong earnings development in hotels and cruises. This synergy is crucial for the company; it's the strength TUI can bring to the market. So to put it briefly, structurally nothing will change in the near future. That is the core of TUI: about half of the guests in the product area come from markets and airlines, and this basic utilization that the markets provide takes away risk from the products. That is decisive.
K
Kemper6:44
Let's look at the booking figures for 2025, especially for summer. Currently they are growing a bit slower than expected. Can we see that the post-COVID boost, where people wanted to travel again, is weakening a bit, or what is the reason for the slower booking pace?
M
Mathias Kiep7:06
I don't think the market has changed much in recent months. We see this pattern every season: a very strong start from customers who absolutely need a specific product at a specific time, then the booking curve flattens to around last year's level, and then it accelerates again closer to departure dates. We've been seeing this pattern for the third or fourth season in a row. The market environment is competitive and we always say there is no tailwind, but it's not particularly worrying either. On the contrary, all our data and the first quarter show that significantly more customers want to travel than last year, and we even see a willingness to pay more despite the market environment.
K
Kemper8:08
In the online age where you can easily book travel online, you have a lot of competitors. Is there a strategy to better profile yourselves? Is another large advertising campaign planned?
M
Mathias Kiep8:27
I think the TUI brand is crucial for the company to perform well on all channels. We must continue to nurture it, whether through brand campaigns or campaigns to generate bookings. That is essential, as you pointed out.
K
Kemper8:44
Let's look at the investor side again. TUI used to pay a dividend. When can we possibly expect a dividend again?
M
Mathias Kiep8:56
Yes, we have clearly communicated that at the end of the year, when we publish our full-year figures for 2025, we will also disclose our strategy in this regard. First, we still have some homework to do. On that basis, we can have the right internal discussions and then present a package on how we can move forward.
K
Kemper9:16
What are those homework tasks, if I may ask?
M
Mathias Kiep9:20
We still have the issue with rating agencies open. We were very pleased to receive a double B from Fitch. Two other agencies that have been involved with us for longer are still pending. We want to wait for that and then enter into discussions with the supervisory board.
K
Kemper9:36
Finally, the question: What do you see as the opportunities for your company in 2025?
M
Mathias Kiep9:47
The market remains good. The topic of holiday travel is a privileged situation where demand is at least at last year's level or even higher, and there is a willingness to pay. If I look at our key performance indicators in the product area, every indicator is better than what we saw a year ago. On that basis, I believe we have good ingredients, as the first quarter also showed, so that we can achieve this 7-10% earnings growth by the end of the year.
K
Kemper10:20
Yes, then I say thank you very much for the conversation. But I have to add one more question: Where are you going on vacation this year, Mr. Kiep?
M
Mathias Kiep10:27
That is the most important question. Indeed, for us as a family, we are going to Turkey.
K
Kemper10:33
Good Mr. Kiep, thank you very much for the interview. I think investors can take away a lot from this. I hope we will see each other again in the future. And dear viewers, thank you for listening. All further developments on TUI can be found on aktionaer.de or in Aktionär magazine. Thank you for today's interview.