Chief Executive Officer, Van Eck Associates Corporation (VanEck)
Van Eck's Q1 2026 Market Outlook: Risk On, Baby! | Jan van Eck
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Today we have the great fortune of having the return appearance of one of the most respected capital allocators in the business: Jan van Eck
Jan is CEO of vanEck, an asset management firm with over $100 billion in assets under management invested across its wide family of ETFs and funds, spanning equity, bond, commodity, digital and regional asset classes.
As we've done the past several quarters now, Jan and I will spend the next hour discussin...
About Jan Van eck
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, has appeared in several media interviews in 2026 discussing the firm's gold ETF, GDX, and his views on the AI sector and cryptocurrency markets. In a June 2026 interview on NYSE Live, van Eck noted that GDX, which launched in 2006, remains one of the firm's largest ETFs with $26 billion in assets under management. He described gold as an important hedge against inflation and said he is "very bullish on gold for the next decade," attributing this to the rise of China and India as economic powers and the potential for the dollar's role to diminish. Van Eck also identified AI as the top long-term market theme, along with India's growth as a consumer market and persistent U.S. budget deficits. In a May 2026 podcast, van Eck expressed caution about memory stocks within the AI ecosystem, stating he is "wary about the memory stocks because in the medium or long term they don't have quite the competitive moat I believe that Nvidia does." He described the memory sector as a "bubble" and a "moment in time." Separately, van Eck characterized the current state of the cryptocurrency market as a "crypto winter" and said he does not believe many crypto projects and software will be "interesting or alive in 5 or 10 years from now," though he noted that blockchain, stablecoins, and Bitcoin remain relevant.
Transcript (97 segments)
J
Jan Van Eck45:41
You had to pay a lot for your stock. Then something happened with investors toward Blackstone, Ares, and Apollo, where the market decided it loves these companies and will pay a premium—25 to 35 times, up to 50 times forward earnings for these private credit firms. My attitude last year was no thank you, so I was a bit cautious. But now if earnings are okay, it's still rich, but if these companies are down from 50 to 35 times, that's more comfortably in the range of the last five or six years. And they're paying 9% right now. BDCs pay 9%. Even with valuation concerns, you're making money back with that dividend. Whether you buy BDCs or the management companies, you're getting better value than last year. Moving to gold—I know I'm a broken record—we're seeing gold re-emerge as a leading global currency. What we saw in Venezuela reinforces geopolitical uncertainty, some generated by the US. It was a Biden administration that seized Russian assets; it was Trump that went into a South American country and surprised the world. The world is reminded daily that if the US government doesn't like what you're doing, you never know what they'll do. Central banks in China and India are not dollar-centric. As emerging markets grow, they'll buy more gold. These are crazy charts from gold history. The main point is when you have a paradigm change, you can't look backward. Gold isn't tethered to income, but it's a bearer asset increasingly in demand from emerging markets. The main point is when it changes, it moves by leaps and bounds, so don't expect a well-behaved chart. If you own it, don't be scared out of your position. It could correct 20% in a bull market, but all the trends will be the same in 2026, 2027, 2028—multi-year. For AI, we have a two-year compute shortage, so I'm comfortable with 2026 and 2027, but not sure after that. Whenever there are monopolies like Nvidia, competitors emerge. That was the DeepSeek concern. The visibility is not as long out there. I have more confidence that the gold bull run will last longer than the AI bull market. It's a global shift. It irritates me when people talk about inflation versus gold. Gold is a global asset. Last year we had a fall in inflation and a big rise in gold. The narrative missing is think global.
A
Adam51:07
Before you get to India, can I ask you a precious metals question?
J
Jan Van Eck51:10
Sure, yeah, please.
A
Adam51:13
I can't not ask you about your thoughts on silver given how it's performed of late. I'm bullish on copper. I've never understood silver. It's appreciated way faster and more than gold. If it's in a reasonable proportion in your portfolio, I'll still have dinner with you, but it's just been too volatile over history, driven by industrial demand relative to investment demand. I view it as a pale competitor and a sign of exuberance. It's gone berserk, and so has copper. There may be real froth, which is a warning. So it sounds like you're saying gold is going through a permanent or secular repricing.
J
Jan Van Eck52:26
Yes.
A
Adam52:28
Do you believe silver is being repriced as well, forgetting about how high it could go?
J
Jan Van Eck52:37
Yes, to the extent you're forcing me. Niall Ferguson wrote an interesting piece comparing the world today to 1906. The main point is that developed markets are shrinking as a percentage of world GDP, and the world still wants a global currency. Gold was the global currency back then, not dominated by a world power. It's just going back to the way it was. Why fight it? Makes sense to me. I'll skip my India charts. I just articulated that India is going to become the size of Europe in 10 years. It had an off year last year, but I'm still pounding the table with high conviction. They did a lot of pro-business reforms. Valuations are high, but those companies are growing.
A
Adam54:25
I want to save time for my favorite section, the beaten-up area. Go for it.
J
Jan Van Eck54:33
VanEck has been enthusiastic about Bitcoin since 2017. It's a reasonable companion to gold. But something fundamentally broke in the old Bitcoin cycle. Bitcoin's supply is capped, and every four years miners get half the Bitcoin. There was a four-year cycle where Bitcoin was the best asset for three years and worst for the fourth. You'll notice we haven't had three years of best performance. Bitcoin disappointed traditional investors and was the worst performing asset last year. The four-year cycle is broken. I'm concerned about 2026, which would have been a normal bad year. There should be more uncertainty around Bitcoin price predictions. I haven't changed my view on gold. Bitcoin is at 90,000 now. If it goes down to the 70s, that would be a great buy. We have a split view at VanEck. I want to let it rest for 3 to 6 months before getting very enthusiastic. I haven't sold any of my Bitcoin. In 2023, I pounded the table with both fists on gold and Bitcoin. Now maybe one fist on Bitcoin. It's corrected, but not more than that. There is an adjacent area in tokens and crypto that was wiped out last year. Most tokens were down 57% per an index. Ethereum is struggling. My colleagues are drooling at opportunities. One example is Hyperliquid, a decentralized offshore derivatives exchange. It generated $1.25 billion in revenue with a $26 billion market cap. If you find the right use case, there are values in tokens. There's a lot of damage in the crypto world, but opportunities exist.
A
Adam1:02:49
Don't apologize. I wasn't bullish on some of these things 3 months ago, so at least there's that. I get people saying I need more bulls on my channel. I don't screen for bullishness; it's hard to find people who are bullish. It's great to have you telling that side of the story so empirically. Did you say you have an ETF for that crypto space?
J
Jan Van Eck1:03:32
Yes, our ETF ticker is NODE. It's actively managed. The portfolio manager Matt Siegel used to work with Cathie Wood. Because of ETF transparency, you can see what he owns and why.
A
Adam1:04:04
That's fantastic. Does VanEck have an ETF for India?
J
Jan Van Eck1:04:17
We have two: GLIN for growth leaders, and DGIN for Digital India, focusing on tech.
A
Adam1:04:38
You made a compelling case for a risk-on year. What worries do you have? Statistically, we've had two good years, and a four-peat is rare. Do you have concerns about the math?
J
Jan Van Eck1:05:49
Two things. First, a normal year includes a 10% sell-off. Even without macro surprises, you'll get volatility. Second, if profits rise 10%, investors might not chase higher PEs, so the market could be flat. Valuations are at historical highs; it's unlikely they go higher.
A
Adam1:07:07
Cape ratios are at historic extremes. What about bonds for 2026?
J
Jan Van Eck1:07:26
You only get yields from bonds, and I want to get paid, so I'm a higher-yield BDC person. I don't see huge risks to the US economy, so I don't need investment-grade bonds with duration risk. We have CLO ETFs I like. I'm risk-on right now.
A
Adam1:08:08
Given the mid-term election and affordability concerns, do you think the economy could perform well enough to swing the midterms toward the current administration?
J
Jan Van Eck1:10:03
It's hard to predict, but there's a scenario where the incumbent does okay. The key is people feeling better economically. Scott Bessent noted that tax refunds from tax breaks and no taxes on tips could boost income. Bessent runs the IRS, so he has visibility. I think they're conscious of the political cycle.
A
Adam1:11:37
Thank you so much for these quarterly outlooks. Is there anything I haven't asked about?
J
Jan Van Eck1:12:05
I'd love to talk about Venezuela. In the next 10 years, we'll have four huge economies: US, Europe, China, India. Other countries must fit in. South America is realigning. If Venezuela transitions to a pro-market economy and Colombia moves right, South America could become pro-business. The gang situation there is unbelievable. Eight million refugees left Venezuela, affecting Colombia and Peru. In Peru, gangs are taking over mining, forestry, and agriculture. This is a humanitarian issue. Miami is the capital of South America. If things improve, Republicans might have more lock on Southern Florida. But it doesn't matter for markets—they can't turn on oil production overnight.
A
Adam1:14:56
So it could have positive implications but not much for markets?
J
Jan Van Eck1:15:05
Correct. The only possible effect is added US unpredictability driving gold demand.
A
Adam1:15:48
Assuming the US successfully revitalizes the Monroe Doctrine and helps South America become market-friendly, does that change your long-term outlook?
J
Jan Van Eck1:17:26
Good humanitarian, nothingburger economics. From a foreign policy perspective, the gang threat was real. Trump is a law-and-order president. That's the main point.
A
Adam1:18:24
I appreciate you highlighting that. My sister lives in Colombia. The refugee crisis and crime are real. A lot of us don't fully understand.
J
Jan Van Eck1:19:13
People in the region don't want lawlessness. Bukele in El Salvador has been extreme on law and order. There's a regional sensibility now. The younger generation is more connected through crypto and social media. The trend toward law and order and pro-business will be interesting to watch.
A
Adam1:20:50
Last question: where can people follow you?
J
Jan Van Eck1:21:06
On X (Twitter) as Jan Van Eck number three, and on LinkedIn. I post podcasts and videos. The VanEck website has our outlooks. I'll get you the deck to distribute.
A
Adam1:21:32
Fantastic. Sign up at thoughtfulmoney.com/newsletter for the slides. Thank you, Jan. Happy New Year.
Now we bring in the lead partners from New Harbor Financial, John Loder and Mike Preston. Hope you had a wonderful holiday.
J
John Loder1:22:12
We did, Adam. Thank you. Great to be back.
M
Mike Preston1:22:19
Great to be with you, Adam. I still have my Christmas tree up—it's fake, but I've been busy.
A
Adam1:22:31
I know you were busy at year-end. Thanks for making time. Jan was optimistic and risk-on. Mike, your reaction?
M
Mike Preston1:23:42
I really enjoyed Jan's talk. We're big fans of VanEck. Disclaimer: nothing is a recommendation. GDX is in our portfolio. We've seen a big move in miners, and we don't think it's over. We agree with Jan's risk-on view but may differ on the timeframe. We might see a blow-off top in the S&P, then crash risk. For tactical investors, watch for that big move. For passive, reduce equities to 30%. Jan said the Fed will have quick short interventions in crises. I'm not so sure—if a big crisis hits, it'll be the Fed constantly to the rescue. He talked about fiscal policy improving; I'm not sure about that data. The transcript ends here.
M
Mike1:27:43
Guess that's true. We've been stuck here around 4.15 on the 10-year for a while. The housing market hasn't fallen apart, which is surprising when mortgage rates went from 3% to almost 7%. Rates doubled and housing prices went higher. The US has been handling these rates better. A 4% 10-year treasury is not out of the long-term norm. Inflation has been relatively behaved, employment softened, but it hasn't triggered a recession like the Sahm indicator predicted. He talked about specific opportunities in AI and suggested the AI bubble burst, but I'm not so sure. If we're right about a higher market, AI will do great. Mag 7s still have good earnings. But the big picture is we have a date with destiny: three times long-term normal valuations. I think 2026 is likely the year we enter the crisis of this fourth turning. If you're tactical short-term, maybe you can play the game, but otherwise dial down exposure. He talked about private credit, bullish on it, but we don't like it. Still bullish on gold, agree with him there. He was more cautious on Bitcoin. Bitcoin had a 30% pullback, historically it does this, pulled back to moving averages, signaled a bottom fish opportunity from 85k to 92-93k. We don't recommend much exposure, we tell people 5-10% precious metals, maybe 1-2% Bitcoin on top. We might be at a short-term low. Bottom line: Yiannis is decidedly bullish across the board, we're not. I think markets will trade lower, possibly 50% or more lower at some point in the next two years. We like VanEck's alternative viewpoint embracing real assets and Bitcoin. We'll have to be tactical, not passive. Reach out if you want to chat.
A
Adam1:32:13
All right. Thanks, Mike. John, I got some questions for you, but first, anything you want to add to Mike's reaction to Jan's analysis there?
J
John1:32:20
Yeah, I think Mike did a great job covering most of the bases. We appreciate the broad-based thought from VanEck. Valuations are black and white numbers but poor timing indicators. Fundamental thesis-driven viewpoints are important as a road map, but markets don't follow rules. For example, India had a strong fundamental case but was a laggard last year. We sold out not because the thesis changed but because the market stopped valuing it. We use technical analysis to guide us. Same with energy: we viewed it as undervalued but waited for technical signals before entering through oil and gas service companies. The bond market has been lopsidedly negative sentiment, but we are modestly invested in short-term treasuries with a small allocation to longer-term. I validate Jan's thoughtful pathway, but markets have a different way of interpreting things. There are compelling cases for silver both ways. The job of an investor is to handicap odds, but one should remember that markets will school you.
A
Adam1:35:42
I really value Jan's outlooks. VanEck is a massive firm with ETFs across sectors. Jan sits at the center of all that information flow. I've recorded videos with Michael Howell, who predicts rough sledding due to liquidity flows. He makes cases for contrarian plays like bonds. I think Jan is right that we have more visibility into 2026. Markets and economy are two separate things; this may be a year that re-educates investors on that. It's great to hear the wisdom of guys like Jan.
J
John1:38:40
Yeah, happy to talk about last year. We had a good year, beat the S&P 500, up net of fees around 20% plus. But I don't want anyone extrapolating. This year will be more challenging. We were bullish on precious metals, had hedges. We overweighted non-US equities like Latin America. Our simple recipe: be in areas that are relatively strong, avoid laggards. For example, energy was undervalued but a laggard, so we waited for technical signals before entering. Wall Street analysts are rarely this uniformly bullish, which is a contrarian reason for caution. We expect a different pathway than Jan. Right now our technical indicators are quite bullish, but that will change.
A
Adam1:42:35
Well, folks, we're going to have Jan on every quarter this year, and New Harbor every week. On the energy side, John, you said you were waiting for the green light from the market. You did. What have the technicals been telling you and what impact do recent developments in Venezuela have on your outlook for energy?
J
John1:43:16
Yeah, recent headlines affected oil market. Venezuela's oil numbers are not independently audited, take with grain of salt. The heavy crude is complicated to refine. There's a geopolitical game bigger than oil. This is not likely to have immediate tangible market effects. Our reason for being in energy is technical, not fundamental. If prices erode, we'll trim.
A
Adam1:47:10
Mike, I'm going to give you the last topic: precious metals. They've cooled off a bit today, but silver hit new highs. There was a 15% correction, but resilience. What are you looking at most closely right now?
M
Mike1:48:06
Yeah, we've seen good resilience. On the monthly chart, silver broke through previous highs and held. The daily chart is choppy. The gold-silver ratio has normalized to 55, not a screaming valuation advantage anymore. Mining stocks have lagged, but I believe they will catch up. I advise selling a little on the way up to rebalance.
A
Adam1:50:19
I guess we won't know till we know, but I wouldn't have thought we'd be at $78 an ounce. It's amazing, and that's despite your strong bullishness on silver heading into 2025.
M
Mike1:50:31
I was really bullish, but I didn't think we'd get here. The gold-silver ratio has normalized. I don't see a top in silver or gold.
A
Adam1:51:29
If you take a look at some of the mining stocks, particularly silver miners, a lot of people have been saying...
M
Mike1:51:34
Silver miners have lagged, a lot of head scratching. I attribute it to nervousness. I believe we'll see expansion in miners, they might double again from here.
A
Adam1:52:16
Certainly, but to the extent that prices remain at these levels, price is your friend as an investor in miners. Earnings are undeniable. If these companies produce great earnings growth, Wall Street will take note.
M
Mike1:52:44
I think earnings will come through in the next couple quarters. GDX has doubled off the base. In a bull market, you often see a doubling, then another doubling. Silver miners haven't had the same vertical move, but I believe they will catch up.
A
Adam1:54:19
Looking at silver, there's a huge deviation from moving averages. Those deviations don't last. Either price comes down or moving averages catch up. Mike, you've said the trend is your friend until the end. Do you agree we're not yet seeing a trend breakdown?
M
Mike1:55:19
I agree, no trend break. On a weekly chart, we broke out of a triangle and had five straight weeks up. Now chopping. To see a trend break, we'd need to come down to maybe 65 on SLV. Real bull markets are hard to hold on to.
A
Adam1:56:49
Mike, if you could pull up the chart, you mentioned you had some hedges on positions because they've moved so far so fast. Where are your current hedges in the space?
M
Mike1:57:06
We have it half hedged. We don't want to cap the bull market but want to reduce volatility. Our call option is at 80 on half. On a big pullback, we get more bullish. We use pullbacks to reset hedges. I advise not to go all in, sell a little on the way up to rebalance. Silver junior miners chart looks great but choppy. Give them time.
A
Adam2:00:02
All right, well said, Mike. We'll have to end it there. I had Andy Schectman on, he talked about shaking the bushes. He's bullish on silver. For those looking to buy, he offers junk silver at a discount. Go to thoughtfulmoney.com/buygold. Also, if you need a financial advisor, fill out the form at thoughtfulmoney.com. John and Mike, thanks for coming on. Look forward to 51 more weeks. Happy New Year.
N
Narrator2:04:35
The Japanese yen is one of the worst performing currencies versus gold, which in my book is inflation. Silver will accelerate. For people who haven't bought gold, silver will be the alternative. If China reveals they have 30,000 tons of gold, prices in China will be sky-high and elsewhere will drop. By September 25th, the consultation period on whether silver should be a strategic mineral in the US will finish. They'll have to start building a silver stockpile, possibly 2.1 billion ounces. Mexico supplies most of America's silver, so any disruption could have a significant effect. Mario Innecco and Phil Lowe highlight that the debt-to-gold ratio has fallen precipitously since April, reminiscent of 2007. Long-term charts indicate a strong trend. Goldman Sachs predicts gold will reach $4,000 by mid-2026. Silver targets are almost reached. The wider breakthrough indicates gold's bull market is well established.
As we dive into the video, remember to subscribe and tap the bell icon so you never miss an update. We value your thoughts, so drop a comment below and give us a thumbs up if you enjoyed the content.
P
Presenter2:07:22
This one here is the Dow gold ratio. We dropped quite a bit in April when we had that beginning of April, and then it consolidated and now it's breaking down. It looks similar to 2007 before the great financial crisis, but we'll have to see. Anyway, one thing I may add, since we were just discussing Weimar, I want to stress that Weimar was a very unique situation because the Entente powers were not letting Germany default. They said you cannot default, you have to give us gold, and that stretched Weimar out to two years. I want to reassure viewers that I think this will be over in three to six months once it really gets going. It will be brutal, as brutal as Weimar, but a lot shorter.
I
Interviewer2:08:12
Yeah, but in Weimar the hyperinflation really picked up in the summer of 1922 and by 1923 it was over, so about 18 months.
P
Presenter2:08:30
This will be about three months. Once they start losing control of food prices, I think they'll revalue to gold.
I
Interviewer2:08:37
Now, I thought commodities were going to start a bull market in the early 2020s only because bonds were going to start a bear market and hard assets would benefit. But we see banks like Goldman Sachs telling clients to diversify into commodities, and they expect gold well above $4,000 by mid-2026 if the Fed's independence is damaged. I thought that was interesting.
P
Presenter2:09:21
Yeah, see that well above $4,000 by mid-2026 in the middle of your presentation. I see that.
I
Interviewer2:09:26
Here, yeah, right there.
P
Presenter2:09:29
Their calls just follow the market. A couple of weeks ago, Bank of America said they're bullish silver at $42 by the end of 2026, but we're almost at $42 now. The bullying banks have been following gold since 2002. Now they can't do it anymore because gold is in a massive bull market. They're saying they're bullish, but they're not bullish enough. One of the reasons is these charts. First one is short-term. This line was around $2,700, and that's why we saw the pullback and retest. Now we've broken out of a pennant or symmetrical triangle and it's taken off. There's nothing above here, so that's very bullish. This long-term chart shows why $2,700 was so important. I was waiting for that test.
I
Interviewer2:11:19
Hey, Mario, can you flip back to the other one so I can see the picture a second? Okay, yeah, and then go to the forward.
P
Presenter2:11:26
Okay, so this is from the high in 1980 to the high in 2011. That $2,700 level, when we broke out, I thought we might see resistance. We didn't initially, it went to $2,900 and then broke back down after Trump won the election. But now we're really taking off. A lot of people don't look at these long-term charts.
N
Narrator2:12:01
Rafi Farber, known as the Endgame Investor, points out that China is injecting funds into its banking system through reverse repos, providing liquidity. The government is trying to reflate its struggling economy, facing weak exports and a collapsing property market. Both China and the West are trapped in the same fragile global system.
P
Presenter2:13:11
Let's revert back. I think when China refers to reverse repo, they mean what we would call repo. They just got their terms mixed up.
I
Interviewer2:13:20
Yeah, they are buying government bonds from the banking system and injecting cash. That's what we would call repo. In China they call it reverse repo. It means they're injecting cash. China is on a different wavelength because their interest rates are going down while the West's are going up. I still think when the West falls, China falls with it because they are the producers and we are the consumers.
P
Presenter2:14:14
Why China would be injecting cash now? The place is very opaque. It's still communist except for special economic zones. China's economy has been fake for so long with ghost towns and a real estate bubble. It's a corrupt regime. Not very different from our regimes though.
I
Interviewer2:14:50
That's true.
P
Presenter2:15:01
No, in the way it functions, but the West still has an idea of individual liberty. China doesn't see that as a value. They want to reflate the economy. China is suffering from a slowdown in sales to America and the traditional saving method of buying apartments has collapsed. The government has to reflate. There are people who think China is eating our lunch, but I don't think that's true.
I
Interviewer2:16:42
Yeah, I don't think that's true at all. Jim Rogers said that too. I think we're all going to go down together. China holds enormous amounts of American dollars, and we're going to default on them. They have overbuilt industry and no one to sell to because America is broke. If you think China is beating us, that means communism works. I didn't say that.
P
Presenter2:18:03
On the injection of funds, absolutely. I think China has a lot more gold than they tell us publicly, maybe 30,000 tons. That's not necessarily a good thing because if they reveal it, prices in China will be sky-high and their export industry will collapse. They are not outsmarting us. The system is stealing from everyone. Both the US and China face mounting economic pressures. Precious metals are safe havens.
N
Narrator2:19:28
Both the US and China face mounting economic pressures. Precious metals are increasingly seen as safe havens. Could silver's designation as a strategic resource accelerate its price? Feel free to share your feedback in the comments below.
Central banks are moving out of US dollars and Treasuries into gold, driving the gold bull market. Gold has outperformed the S&P in the 21st century. A $10,000 gold price is not far off. Central banks are set for a fourth straight year of heavy gold buying. Peter Schiff highlights that gold miners have surged over 50%. A Reuters poll sees gold averaging $3,220 in 2025 and $3,400 in 2026. Silver is up 32% this year. Gold and silver mining stocks are up nearly 80% and could double this year.
P
Peter Schiff2:23:32
Well, inflation is going to erode most investment returns. The S&P 500 is up 1.5% today, but the dollar is down 1%, so it's really only half a percent. Foreign stocks are doing better. Gold stocks are up 77% year-to-date. The Fed is too loose. Gold is below $3,400, silver is back above $39. I think silver is getting ready to blow through $40 and gold through $3,500. The economy is not booming and won't boom during the Trump years. We need a bust before a boom. Trump wants to skip the bust and go to a bubble.
I
Interviewer2:25:04
So you mentioned a bust. How bad could it be?
P
Peter Schiff2:25:07
Horrific, much worse than 2008. We have a huge debt bubble. When it pops, there will be a lot of defaults, bankruptcies, and failures. Stocks, bonds, and real estate will crash. Politicians don't have the stomach for that pain, so they'll kick the can down the road with another sugar high. The Fed is cooperating by cutting rates. By next year, they'll be in QE mode.
I
Interviewer2:25:50
Yeah, well, you could say the S&P is up around 10% this year, which is about how much the dollar is down. So international investors see no return on US stocks.
P
Peter Schiff2:25:57
I look at my mutual funds. One is the Euro Pacific International Dividend Payers Fund, which buys dividend-paying stocks outside the US. That fund is up almost 40% year-to-date. That's a big signal for capital to leave US markets. Gold stocks are up close to 80% on the year. This could be the best year for gold stocks I can remember. They're beating tech and crypto. We've been overweight Europe and have investments in Southeast Asia and South America. We'll probably allocate more to emerging markets for 2026.
I
Interviewer2:29:26
Well, I think silver's looking pretty strong, around $39. There's resistance, but if we break through, it could go higher.
P
Peter Schiff2:29:28
Silver is very cheap. I've been promoting it. When the gold-silver ratio was 100 to 1, you could get 100 ounces of silver for one ounce of gold. It's still historically cheap. I really like silver.
N
Narrator2:30:08
US assets dominate global portfolios, but concerns over a weakening dollar are prompting investors to explore alternatives like gold, Chinese tech, and emerging markets. Peter reveals that China still offers cheap stocks and is positioned to come out of the global trade war stronger. Commodities are set for a major boom as inflation rises and the dollar weakens.
P
Peter Schiff2:31:36
Yeah, there are still a lot of cheap stocks in China. We have Chinese exposure in our funds. I think China will come out of this trade war as the winner. They'll strengthen relationships with Russia, India, Africa, and Latin America. The US is shooting itself in the head with tariffs. Putting 50% tariffs on India hurts American consumers. Sanctions on Russia just make oil more expensive and give countries another reason to get out of the dollar. America benefited from other countries using our currency, but we're pushing that away. Bitcoin is fool's gold. When that bubble pops, people will find out they weren't buying something like gold. Energy, natural gas, oil, and agricultural commodities are cheap. They'll all be bid higher with inflation. Emerging markets will consume more commodities as they produce for themselves. Commodities will be more expensive for Americans.
N
Narrator2:35:27
Central banks' record gold buying, weakening US dollar returns, and the outperformance of foreign equities and commodities point toward a structural shift in global capital flows. Gold and silver miners, alongside emerging markets, are attracting attention. Could central bank demand push gold toward $10,000? Share your thoughts in the comments.
Silver is going to fail to deliver within the next few delivery periods, probably before year-end. That will spill over to gold. China has way more gold than they say. He who has the gold makes the rules. They're preparing for the dollar and Treasury bonds to implode. Gold and silver are the ultimate hedge because they can't go bankrupt. China is tightening its grip on the physical market. For years, nations like Russia and China quietly accumulated metals. Dalio warned the US economy is showing signs of a financial heart attack.
A
Analyst2:39:54
Gold and silver cannot bankrupt. They are money themselves. They cannot bankrupt in a world that is bankrupting.
Absolutely. If we revert back to silver, we're seeing a huge long-awaited breakout. China has been in the driver's seat, controlling the physical side and arbitraging the paper side. The gloves are off now, especially after Trump's attack on BRICS. It would be extremely easy to break the Western financial system with $5 or $10 billion by going to COMEX and LBMA and demanding metal. There's no way to deliver that kind of metal short-term. In the past, Russia and China were being polite because they didn't want bombs raining down. The reason the dollar has been the reserve currency is the US military. Look at Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi. They talked about a gold-backed currency and were killed. Now countries are buying quietly. The Achilles heel of the Western system is fractional reserve. A failure to deliver in silver or gold will expose it. If one goes, the other will follow immediately. Money is flowing into physical metal and leverage contracts. Trump's comments after the SCO meeting ruffled the White House's feathers. A multi-polar world would be better, but US dollar hegemony is the problem.
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Interviewer2:44:14
Well, that's the problem the rest of the world sees. They want to get out from under Uncle Sam's boot. They don't want to use dollars or be in the Swift system. The US and the West stole $300 billion of US Treasuries from Russia.
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Analyst2:44:24
The rest of the world wants to get out from under Uncle Sam's boot. They don't want to use dollars. The US and the West stole $300 billion of US Treasuries from Russia.
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Narrator2:44:48
According to Bill Holter, cryptocurrency was created as a diversion from gold and silver. Silver has been designated a key mineral in the US, potentially limiting world supplies. Deficits are growing as Mexico's output declines and industrial demand rises. By 2026, analysts predict silver between $40 and $52.50 per ounce. In a currency collapse, no fiat could purchase gold and silver.
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Analyst2:45:33
Let's shift our attention to the interview. I believe the crypto market was created as a pressure relief valve from gold and silver. But silver's got my attention. The US naming it as a critical mineral means they're caught in a rock and a hard place. They'll probably start banning the sale of it. Why would you allow a critical mineral to be sold?
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Interviewer2:46:30
Right. Well, naming it as a strategic mineral automatically creates government demand and reduces supply available to the market. They poured gasoline on that fire.
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Analyst2:46:37
Yeah, and every other central bank will say, 'I'm not selling my silver at this price. I want a much higher price.' I made the comment before we started recording: be careful what you wish for.
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Interviewer2:47:05
Yeah, and when we go through $50, if markets stay open, there could be a failure to deliver this month. Once we get through $50, people talk about $100, $200, $600 silver. There's no way to project a number because the parameters are zero and infinity. If a currency goes to zero, gold is priced at infinity in that currency. No amount of currency can buy an ounce of gold. That's where we're headed on a global basis.
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Narrator2:48:27
Could the long-awaited decoupling of paper and physical prices be triggered by a failure to deliver silver on COMEX? How long before gold threatens the dollar's position as the primary reserve asset? If you enjoyed the content, please like this video, subscribe, and press the bell icon for timely updates.