Chief Executive Officer, Van Eck Associates Corporation (VanEck)
Global Allocation via ETFs with Jan van Eck
Check out the conversation our Global CEO, Jan van Eck, had with Ricardo Costa, partner and PM of Global Portfolio Solutions at BTG Pactual, about international asset allocation and the main global trends in ETFs.
Throughout the episode, we discussed how VanEck builds asset allocations by looking at long-term trends, the impact of topics such as artificial intelligence, India, and gold, as well as other topics on the investor's radar, such as emerging markets, Brazil's role in this scenario, and Bitcoin and the evolution of this market.
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00:40 What is investing with a global vis...
About Jan Van eck
Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, has appeared in several media interviews in 2026 discussing the firm's gold ETF, GDX, and his views on the AI sector and cryptocurrency markets. In a June 2026 interview on NYSE Live, van Eck noted that GDX, which launched in 2006, remains one of the firm's largest ETFs with $26 billion in assets under management. He described gold as an important hedge against inflation and said he is "very bullish on gold for the next decade," attributing this to the rise of China and India as economic powers and the potential for the dollar's role to diminish. Van Eck also identified AI as the top long-term market theme, along with India's growth as a consumer market and persistent U.S. budget deficits. In a May 2026 podcast, van Eck expressed caution about memory stocks within the AI ecosystem, stating he is "wary about the memory stocks because in the medium or long term they don't have quite the competitive moat I believe that Nvidia does." He described the memory sector as a "bubble" and a "moment in time." Separately, van Eck characterized the current state of the cryptocurrency market as a "crypto winter" and said he does not believe many crypto projects and software will be "interesting or alive in 5 or 10 years from now," though he noted that blockchain, stablecoins, and Bitcoin remain relevant.
Transcript (17 segments)
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Ricardo Costa0:00
Hello everyone. My name is Ricardo Costa. I'm here today to talk with a special guest about global investing. We'll discuss thematic investing, how to build portfolios, and future challenges. I manage accounts at BTG Pactual, and we have open-ended funds. It's an honor to have Jan Van Eck, CEO of VanEck, one of the largest asset managers in the world, managing $220 billion. We'll explore what Jan is looking into and how VanEck built this beautiful empire. Thanks for being here.
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Jan Van Eck1:07
It's a pleasure for us and BTG to have you here and have this partnership with VanEck.
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Ricardo Costa1:14
First, I'd like to hear a little about yourself and VanEck. How did you guys build this? What's behind VanEck's business currently?
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Jan Van Eck1:36
Well, it's a great pleasure to be in São Paulo. Let me start with VanEck's investment philosophy. We think of ourselves as global macro investors. We look at political trends, economic policies, and technology, and ask how that should shape your portfolio. People too quickly say they want a mix of stocks and bonds, but it really depends—if you're in Venezuela, you want stablecoins or Bitcoin. You need to step back and take the big picture. We've been applying this in America for 70 years, but it's older in Europe. History is key—it shows how quickly the world can change. VanEck also has a big commodities business; my father started the first gold fund in the US. That ties us into the global economy, not just a US perspective. We have a large investment team and use quantitative techniques for signals on momentum and asset allocation.
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Ricardo Costa4:18
Those are good points. As allocators, we face a challenge: the macro cycle isn't as clear as before. If you take out COVID, there's been no recession in the US for almost 16 years. Markets seem to respond more to themes—like AI, gold debasement. How do you construct a portfolio? Do you start with asset allocation based on themes, or with themes first?
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Jan Van Eck6:09
I start with two fundamental things: what are the 10-year trends—big picture changes like the rise of China for 30 years. Then you assume the market is efficient. 10-year themes drive asset allocation. Our themes include AI, the rise of India, and gold—which I think is re-emerging as a leading currency because central banks are buying it as a store of value. For shorter-term themes, you need higher conviction because the market is efficient. For example, our nuclear ETF—we started it 19 years ago, and it's now benefiting from AI-driven electricity demand and global policy shifts. You also need to know when to sell by looking at valuations. Our semiconductor ETF, SMH, is the world's biggest. We did deep research and sold when Nvidia was at 50 times sales in summer 2024, then bought back when it became fairly valued. So, start with 10-year trends, then use themes with valuation discipline.
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Ricardo Costa14:20
That's a good discussion. I'm a fan of efficient markets, but Paul Samuelson said markets are microefficient and macroinefficient. That aligns with VanEck's philosophy of using broad ETFs to exploit macro inefficiencies. How do you build the team to create these themes? What professionals do you have? And how do you construct the ETF—geographies, concentration limits?
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Jan Van Eck16:51
Our philosophy is pure play: at least 50% of companies in an ETF should be related to the theme. For example, a Brazil ETF should include companies like Nubank and Mercado Libre that do most of their business in Brazil, even if they're listed elsewhere. That solves 90% of the problem. Sometimes the world changes—like private credit after the financial crisis. Now there are 25 public companies, so we created an ETF. Not every ETF should be bought all the time; they go through cycles. Our approach is to explain how we see the world and let clients pick.
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Ricardo Costa19:46
VanEck's culture is different—family-owned, which reduces conflicts of interest and aligns with long-term views. How did that impact your success?
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Jan Van Eck20:44
When I joined, almost all assets were in gold mining shares, which are extremely volatile. For example, gold shares fell 90% from 2011 to 2016. You have to be private to survive. Being non-public matters. We're more of a partnership with profit sharing. We like to be approachable, with a small-firm mentality even as we've grown. We have a founder mentality—my father started the company, and we need to take risks and pivot. We pivoted into ETFs 20 years ago, and I want future leadership to be able to do that.
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Ricardo Costa23:53
We share that entrepreneurial culture at BTG. Now, on macro context: investors face high valuations, correlations between fixed income and equities are higher. What are you looking at in the market? How do you build a portfolio based on your view?
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Jan Van Eck25:41
We always start with 10-year trends, then do quarterly outlooks. My view coming into this year was risk-on. The biggest risk for the US is the federal budget deficit, but it's improving. Fiscal policy is becoming less stimulative, which will slow the economy a bit. The Fed will continue accommodative policy. No major regulatory changes. Technology (AI) continues. So no big concerns. Valuations are misleading for asset allocation—you can't use them as a first guide. The main job is to get clients invested because they'll make more money in markets than in the bank. There's not enough reason to worry; rewards are worth the occasional 10-20% drops.
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Ricardo Costa30:37
In Brazil, the risk-free rate is 15%, so the slope of the capital allocation line is small. But offshore investments compensate. What about emerging markets? How do you evaluate them?
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Jan Van Eck31:48
Country investing is a great opportunity for macro investors. But 'emerging markets' is an outdated concept. China is a global giant. Countries are very different—Venezuela vs. Brazil, which has a sophisticated financial system like PIX. We think country by country. They do correlate, but we separate them in our minds.
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Ricardo Costa33:16
Crypto is a big topic for clients. We've seen volatility with Trump's bullish agenda and a correction in early 2026. What are your views on crypto and how should investors get exposure?
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Jan Van Eck33:57
We filed for the first Bitcoin ETF in 2017. Bitcoin was $3,000 then. We differentiate Bitcoin from other cryptocurrencies. I'm still long-term bullish on Bitcoin. 2026 is a tough year predictably due to the four-year halving cycle; bear markets have been down ~80%. We think it may correct to the 70s or 60s. It's a good time to accumulate if long-term bullish. One negative: since COVID, Bitcoin has become highly correlated to Nasdaq, so it's not a diversification benefit. Also, crypto is 'losing by winning'—Wall Street is adopting blockchain technology but that may not benefit the tokens. It's a fight between open blockchains like Ethereum and corporate blockchains. Valuations were ridiculous. That's our worldview on crypto in 2026.
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Ricardo Costa38:18
That's valuable. I really appreciate your time. On behalf of BTG, it's an honor to have this conversation and our partnership with Invesco and VanEck. Clients can access your products on our platforms. Congratulations on the successful conference. Thank you so much.