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Richard Kirkman
CEO Northern Europe & Group Head of Growth and Innovation (eff. April 2026), Veolia Environnement S.A.

Talking Business with Leon Gettler Interview with Veolia CEO Richard Kirkman.

🎥 Mar 01, 2024 📺 Talking Business ⏱ 28m
Here's all the business, finance and economics news - in just 30 minutes Universities could soon be facing major funding changes ...
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Transcript (52 segments)
L
Leon Delaney0:00
Welcome to Talking Business, a podcast produced in Melbourne, Australia. The podcast is available on the Acast site, my own website, the Apple Podcast Store, or wherever you go to get your podcast. Or you can get it at the Business Acumen website at www.businessacumen.biz, or Banking Day for the most excessive access to leading economists and business leaders from around the world. Subscribe to Talking Business from our website. I am Leon Delaney. My job is to review and monitor the week's news in business, finance, and economics. I bring it all to you every week. This is episode number five in series four, 2024, and today's date is Friday, March the 1st. First, I'll be talking to Richard Kirkman, the CEO of Veolia. Research undertaken by Veolia, the nation's leader in ecological transformation, found that climate distress and eco-anxiety have become the norm in Australia, with the majority of Australians placing emphasis on the role that businesses must play in addressing these issues. And I'll be talking to AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver, who summarizes the profit reporting season which ended this week. But first, let's talk to Richard Kirkman.
R
Richard Kirkman0:57
Richard, tell us about this latest survey that Veolia has done about Australia. Yeah, so we conducted actually a global survey of people around their views on climate change and pollution and the environment. And in Australia particularly, it was a really interesting result because what we found is that there were some climate skeptics around still, one in five people not thinking that climate change and carbon emissions are associated to human activity, and not everyone really tuned in to the fact that climate change is happening, it's caused by man-made efforts, and that we need to do something about it. That said, of the people that do believe there is an issue with the climate, very high numbers are willing to change the way they do things, so buy and recycled products, adjusting their lifestyles and doing things differently to have less impact. So we think there's a massive opportunity here to first of all get more people on board that this is a good thing to do for everyone, and secondly, once we get them on board, we know that people will be up for those changes.
L
Leon Delaney2:06
As I understand, 84% of your survey respondents were rather concerned or anxious about climate disruption.
R
Richard Kirkman2:10
Yeah, that's the kind of anomaly. There's one in five or a third of people more skeptical, but at the same time they're anxious about climate disruption. I think maybe people don't necessarily think it's a human-caused issue, and that it's around how we use waste, around how we produce drinking water, around our energy production methods. People clearly see that there is an impact on the climate. There's clearly more droughts, more bushfires, more floods in Australia, so that's evident. And that's why you've got your high 84% of people concerned about that climate disruption, but probably there's not enough people yet recognizing that there's something we can do about it. It's not a given, and we can adapt to these changes in the climate.
L
Leon Delaney2:57
But your survey also found, I mean, in light of that, there's lots of people have been through floods and bushfires, and you've also found that two-thirds of people, or something like 68%, said they felt exposed to harsh living conditions.
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Richard Kirkman3:12
That's right. And that's clearly evident in Australia where there are lots of natural events happening more often than they used to. You just have to look at the last couple of years with the wet weather on the eastern seaboard to see that that's happening more often. And we need to have new infrastructure that is able to respond to that. So a great example would be 10 years ago there were desalination plants built across Australia and nothing's been built since then. Now we need a new wave of desalination to ensure that we have enough drinking water during periods of drought, but also during periods of flood. Because during periods of flood, the rest of the water networks are not able to cope and we run the desalination plants at full bore. And that's been recognized in policy now. We're seeing that new kind of renaissance of desalination plants happening across Australia.
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Leon Delaney4:05
But the issue is, how does this affect businesses and how should businesses address those concerns?
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Richard Kirkman4:09
Well, I think one of the big impacts for businesses more broadly with climate change is the emissions, their carbon dioxide emissions either that they're producing directly or that they're responsible for through their supply chain, through things they buy. And clearly there's been a turnaround in policy in the last year or so with the Labor government coming in with the 43% emissions reduction target. So businesses are realizing, and 65% of businesses say they need to do more in our survey, they need to do more about how they control their emissions. And we can help them with that because our mission of ecological transformation is all about how can Australia continue to mine its resources, to manufacture materials, to produce food and to manage its resources to the benefit of all the people of Australia, to the wealth of the citizens. But at the same time have less impact. I don't think this is an agenda of let's stop doing things because I don't think that's sustainable for an economy. It's more about how can we continue to do those things but protect the environment, have less emissions, recycle more waste, collect food waste and turn it into energy, use recycled water instead of producing new water. All those things we know work. The technology works, we just need to roll them out.
L
Leon Delaney5:29
But the issue too is that we have a massive resources industry, and that's quite an issue in terms of climate change and the campaigns around climate change.
R
Richard Kirkman5:36
Yeah, absolutely. And that I think that's why I'm saying that I don't think curbing a resources industry is the right way forward. I think enabling that resources industry to be carbon neutral, to recycle materials and to introduce recycled streams into their product is the way forward. So we can produce renewable energy for these large resource companies, we can provide them fresh water from recycled water rather than using new sources of water, and we can push material back around the supply chain. An example could be lithium in car batteries. You know, in other countries, in northern Europe, we have battery recycling centers where we take in car batteries and we recycle the lithium and the rare earths back into the economy, back through those mineral companies who have the expertise in how to refine them. And that is coming here very soon.
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Leon Delaney6:26
Do we actually have the industry and skill sets to do that?
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Richard Kirkman6:31
Well, I would say we don't have enough of the industries and skill sets, and that's why we're working very hard with the academic community to see how we can have engineers, scientists, marketeers, legal people, all the different disciplines trained up for a new wave of industry which is about how we ecologically transform. We need the right skill sets. I think in the circular economy alone, which is recycling materials around, we need about 100,000 new people in Australia over the next 10 years. And we will need to retrain, and I think as other industries tail off, some will reduce. For example, the coal sector might see some reductions and we've seen some plants already announced that will reduce. People will become available or open to be retrained to work in the new economy, the new economy of environmental sustainability.
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Leon Delaney7:17
This would be particularly true with coal-fired power plants, wouldn't it?
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Richard Kirkman7:21
Yeah, and I think there already, as I say, have been some announced that will close, and there will be people that operate those facilities. And I really need people that know how to operate steam turbines, which is what a coal-fired power station requires, to operate facilities running on waste producing energy where we have a steam turbine. And I need those resources, those human resources that are skilled in running those kind of machines, to move to the more sustainable version of that technology. While at the same time there may be many facilities that continue operating but we capture the carbon from them and we store that carbon or we convert it to something useful like a sustainable aviation fuel or ammonia for fertilizer, sustainable fertilizer production. So all these new kind of industries are going to pop up and we need new engineers, new marketeers and new sales people to work in that sector.
L
Leon Delaney8:09
But the issue too is how businesses can actually turn these into their business goals. That would require a complete mind shift.
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Richard Kirkman8:17
But I think that mind shift has already started, and people talk about the ESG agenda and sustainability reports, and that is all becoming very real very quickly now that there are carbon emission reductions requirements, there's the safeguard mechanism, which I think has started already the transition, the transformation to businesses thinking about their entire supply chain and their emissions all the way from scope one to scope four. Scope one being what you emit directly, scope two being the electricity that you buy, scope three being your supply chain, and scope four being the positive carbon reduction you provide by running your business. Because when I operate a recycling center, I recycle 100,000 tons of material, somewhere someone's not having to produce that new material, and that's providing huge benefit to the economy and to the environment.
L
Leon Delaney9:10
It's also a question of the business actually having the people there to actually develop that and getting their ducks in a row.
R
Richard Kirkman9:16
That's right. And I honestly think it's happening. And we can pick lots of examples which may be few and far between in Australia at the moment. If you look overseas, particularly northern Europe, you'll see a lot of industries are thinking about how they can cycle all the material around, ensure they use their waste to either produce energy, produce fresh water, or to use that material again in the process. So there are examples and references of being able to do it. In Australia likewise there are examples. The brewery and distillery industry is famously a good example of being able to use its waste either as another product, a byproduct, or to produce energy. So digesting their sludges into a biogas which can be used to power the plant. There's other sectors like the dairy sector where we think there's lots of opportunity. I actually think if you were to take all the sewage sludges from water treatment and the food waste, and also collect all the methane produced at landfills, we'd be able to produce about 10% of Australia's required gas supply, which is massive.
L
Leon Delaney10:20
Well Richard, that's all quite fascinating, and thank you very much for your time.
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Richard Kirkman10:24
Thank you very much, Leon. And now let's talk to AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver.
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Shane Oliver10:29
Well Shane, what's your take on the profit reporting season? Look, to be honest with you, Leon, it's been okay. I wouldn't say it's fantastic, but expectations coming into this profit reporting season were quite subdued. Expectations of analysts was for something like a 5 to 6% fall in profits for this financial year. And generally speaking, we've seen somewhat more than normal companies surprise on the upside. On the latest numbers, we're almost 70% of the way through the profit reporting season this week of course is the busiest week, but on the latest numbers we've got something like 43% of companies have surprised on the upside, and 39% on the downside. So that doesn't sound overly fantastic, but it's slightly more than normal surprising on the upside and slightly less than normal surprising on the downside.
And likewise, when you look at the number of companies reporting profits up on a year ago, we've got 55% of companies reporting higher profits on a year ago, which is an improvement from what we saw back in the last reporting season in August last year when it was slightly less than 50%. So overall, you've got more companies than not seeing profits actually rise on a year ago, and slightly more companies surprising on the upside than on the downside. But overall compared to the past, it's not an overly flash reporting season. There's been much stronger periods than this, but so far so good. It's not anywhere near as bad as feared. I suspect that analyst earnings expectations will still remain for a fall of around 5 to 6% for this financial year, but the good news is that it's certainly not coming in any worse than that, maybe fractionally better.
It does say something about the resilience of companies. When a lot of them reported, their share price actually increased, and that may have surprised many who watch the market. As always I should point out in reporting seasons, you have a bias towards better results coming early. So some companies have fixed dates, they always go on the second Wednesday of the reporting season, whereas some will move their dates around a little bit. And there has been a tendency over the years for better results to come up front and then as we go on they're not quite as good. But one area where there has been a little bit of a surprise was particularly retail, on stocks like I think JB Hi-Fi, Excel and so on. They're sort of struggling, they've had tough times, but maybe not as bad as feared. And some of the outlook guidance from the retailers wasn't too bad either.
Consequently the market, investors are thinking, well okay, not so good but not as bad as it could have been. And somewhere out there we're going to get lower interest rates which will help Australian consumers. And so that's why the market reaction has been sort of okay. The other aspect in relation to those individual stocks, the other aspect of course is that we came into this profit reporting season at the start of February with a record high on the ASX200 in the Australian share market. And after such a huge run-up, particularly since October last year, we're always going to go through a bit of a consolidation. So when you look at the overall market, I think it's sort of chugged sideways over the last few weeks of the reporting season, but I think that's probably to be expected given the extent of the gains that we had seen coming out of the lows in October last year.
L
Leon Delaney13:39
It's interesting, I mean you're saying people are thinking, or investors are thinking, oh well there's interest rate cuts ahead, so they're thinking long term. But they'd also be thinking about the tax cuts coming in too.
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Shane Oliver13:50
That's right. It's a combination of the two. Now there were going to be tax cuts anyway, but those tax cuts have now been skewed more to lower and particularly middle income earners who are more likely to spend them, whereas the previous stage three tax cuts were favoring more the higher income earners. They still get big tax cuts but not as big as they otherwise would have been. But of course you've got now something like 90% of taxpayers getting some sort of tax cut. So that change in the skew of the stage three tax cuts to more going to low and middle income earners, much like stages one and two did, could potentially boost spending because it's low and middle income earners, they're the people likely to be stretched in their mortgages, particularly facing the cost of living pressures and so on. So giving them some money means that more of the tax cuts are likely to be spent. So that's also a boost.
So you've got this combination, I think, of things coming together which the market is starting to view more favorably. Obviously interest rate cuts sometime, we think starting in the middle of the year, other economists say starting later in the year, but that will provide some relief, the tax cuts, and you can also argue, and we saw in the figures this week, wages growth is now starting to edge above, ever so slightly above, the rate of inflation. 4.2% for the year to December for wages, 4.1% for inflation, which doesn't mean that the huge rise in prices has now been recovered, it certainly hasn't, but at least things are starting to go in a better direction again. So those three things, potential for lower interest rates, tax cuts, and the return of real wages growth, I think are seen as a bit of a positive for the household sector and Australian consumers, even though we're still going to go through a bit of a rough patch for the next few months at least.
L
Leon Delaney15:33
So overall you'd say this profit reporting season, while it hasn't been brilliant, has been better than expected?
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Shane Oliver15:37
Yeah, overall it's a little bit better than expected. I should point out that the final numbers, and I think also the market's expectations coming into this reporting season, were always going to be a little bit skewed. A lot of the weakness that is coming through, the fall in profits, that 5 to 6% fall, the bulk of that was to be driven by the energy stocks. Whereas if you look, on the other hand, if you exclude energy and financials, the rest of the market is seeing flat to up profits, which is interesting. I think consumer staples are negative, consumer discretion is actually slightly positive. So the weakness we are seeing is very much concentrated particularly in the energy sector, after the massive rise in energy prices for coal, gas, and oil that we saw coming on the back of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which boosted profits in the last financial year. So that's just worth bearing in mind as well.
I think the other aspect is that a lot of bad news has already been factored in for retailers, so that's why they're perhaps getting some support through all of this. A couple of other things worth noting. I think cost control has generally been good, that's been helping companies, and that's helped maintain margins. Like even the banking sector, which is seeing some pressure on margins, some have had mixed results there. I think some of the banks were able to maintain their margins by good cost control.
L
Leon Delaney17:03
Yeah, I mean, I was very struck by how mixed the season has been. I mean there's been some fantastic results and others not so good.
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Shane Oliver17:12
Yeah, I guess that's to be expected. We have come into a period where the energy sector is dragging the profits down as a whole. If you take that out, you're probably looking at flat to slightly up profits. So within that you're going to see some spectacularly positive results and some spectacularly negative results, and I guess that's no surprise. We're not in an environment where everything is going positively for the corporate sector. That sort of environment would be one where most companies get lifted even if they make mistakes. Whereas we are in an environment where a lot depends on what sector you're in and also how you're managing, and areas like cost control become a lot more important. And we've seen banks that have managed to keep control of their costs do better than those that haven't.
L
Leon Delaney17:56
So how would the RBA be looking at this?
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Shane Oliver17:58
Well, they'll be looking at everything which gives them some guidance to how the economy is going. I think in a big picture sense it's probably neutral for the RBA. Things aren't strong enough, I think, to sort of bring on another rate hike, but by the same token on their own they're probably not weak enough to enhance or bring forward prospects for rate cuts. Like the wages figures yesterday, they weren't strong enough, or the wages figures that we got out for the December quarter, that they weren't strong enough to bring on more rate hikes, but they're not weak enough to bring forward rate cuts. So that's the way I would see it, it's sort of somewhere in the neutral zone. So I don't think the RBA would be reading too much into it, it's not that the results weren't extreme enough to do that. And of course the RBA would also know that the bulk of the reason we're going to see a fall in profits this year is because of the slump in the energy sector.
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Leon Delaney18:46
Of course the RBA's focus will be totally on the next inflation figures.
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Shane Oliver18:51
That's right. Inflation is the big one. We have some good news on inflation, it has fallen. Take the monthly numbers because they're more timely, even though they're more volatile. They fell from an 8.4% peak in December 2022, and most recent numbers they've fallen to around 3.3-3.4%, so that's very positive news. And with that, the quarterly number that the RBA focuses on more has also come down, albeit it will lag the monthly, of course. So they're going to be focusing on that. We get another reading of that in the week ahead, and it's likely to show that inflation remains in the threes. I don't think we'll see another leg down yet because negative inflation numbers dropped out in January last year, so the monthly rise in January last year was something like minus 0.3%. Unless we see minus 0.4% or even less, then the monthly number will stay around or maybe rise a little bit from where it was reported to be in December.
But I think the broader picture is down for inflation. What the RBA wants to see, because they know this is happening, they want to see more confidence that it's going to keep going down and stay down around the 2.5% level. Ultimately we think they will get enough evidence of that by the middle of the year to start cutting, but very high risk that it may take a little bit longer than that. The central bank was surprised on the upside by the rise in inflation, that caused them a lot of pain. The last thing they want to do is sort of jump in there with rate cuts only to then reverse them again because then that will just add to the pain again. So they want to be fairly comfortable that when they do ease, it can be sustained. And at this stage thinking well it's still a bit too early.
But central banks are gradually moving in that direction. We've also seen from the US Federal Reserve minutes from their last meeting similar sentiment from them. Of course the Fed is a little bit more advanced because US inflation is running a little bit lower than it is in Australia. So that means the Fed is now considering when to start cutting interest rates, whereas in Australia the debate is still around whether to hike again or to leave rates on hold. I think they will stay on hold and ultimately they will cut, but obviously we've got a way to go yet before we get to that point.
L
Leon Delaney20:57
Last minute, the RBA meeting indicated they were still thinking of maybe hiking rates.
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Shane Oliver21:01
That's certainly right. That was what was on the table. They thought about hiking again and leaving rates on hold. They didn't think about cutting, and their guidance implied that they still can't rule out a further hike. So it's still not balanced in the sense that they're considering three scenarios: cutting, holding, or hiking. They're still only considering the last two, holding or hiking, at the present point in time. And that I guess is probably where New Zealand is, whereas other central banks I think in Europe and the UK and the US are a bit more advanced than we are, because their inflation rates went up earlier, their inflation rates peaked earlier, they started to hike in most cases before we did, and consequently they're further down the track. I think we will get to where they are reasonably soon, but for now the RBA still has a very mild tightening bias. It's not yet thinking about cutting rates.
L
Leon Delaney22:02
Well Shane, that's all very enlightening, and thank you very much for your time.
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Shane Oliver22:06
Thank you, Leon.
L
Leon Delaney22:08
So what's happening in the news? Well, the monthly CPI indicator has slowed, rising 3.4% in the 12 months of January, undershooting analyst consensus forecasts of a rise to 3.6%. And universities could soon be facing major funding changes as the biggest review of the sector in decades calls for radical reshaping of the tertiary education sector. The Universities Accord has recommended funding be delivered on a needs basis, similar to primary and high school funding, where extra loadings would be provided based on student and institutional disadvantage to make the system more accessible. It's called to boost university attainment rates nationally to 80%, effectively creating a demand-driven system for disadvantaged students. The review provides the federal government with a blueprint for long-term changes that seeks to tackle skill shortages in health, child care, science, education, and manufacturing.
The Universities Accord said failing to increase student numbers would do lasting damage to Australia's prospects of national economic success, as well as damage social cohesion by locking out certain groups from high-paid jobs. Also among the recommendations are calls to double the number of university places, force institutions to pay those doing compulsory placements, increase a tertiary attainment target to 80% by 2050, and abolish the former coalition government's failed Job-Ready Graduates policy that put costs up for arts degrees. The Universities Accord is a review of the entire sector looking at everything from how to make university more accessible to student safety and the role the sector will play in Australia's future.
It lays out a blueprint for a widespread overhaul of a sector that teaches and employs thousands. The federal government commissioned the review to inform the changes that will be making to tertiary education. Key recommendations include more than doubling the number of uni places to 1.8 million in 2050, to needs-based funding for certain groups and courses to make the system more equitable. This would involve increasing access to university education for students who are First Nations, from poor backgrounds, have a disability, and/or come from a regional, rural, or remote area. Other recommendations include better financial support for students and paying them for compulsory placements, and moving towards a HECS-HELP loan system where contributions are based on future potential earnings.
And confidential Treasury analysis shows decade-high wages growth has pushed the average full-time salary above $100,000 and is now the biggest driver of consumer price inflation, undercutting claims widespread corporate profit gouging is to blame. Pay rises overtook import prices and supply shocks to form the lion's share of headline CPI in the June quarter last year according to Treasury analysis, a trend economists expect to continue to the end of 2023 and into 2024. The analysis undercuts claims from the Greens, unions, and former ACCC Chairman Allan Fels that widespread price gouging has been causing price rises.
Those claims have sparked a wave of inquiries including a Greens Senate probe into supermarket pricing, a year-long inquiry led by the ACCC, and a review of the voluntary code by Craig Emerson. The inflation analysis showed labor costs made up almost two-thirds of headline CPI in the year to June 30, 2023. The remaining was made up of import prices, global price shocks, and other elements. When annual CPI peaked at 7.8% in December 2022, wages made up about 30%.
And the tax office is investigating a suspected $180 million tax fraud by a top former contractor in the construction industry. It could end up as the biggest tax fraud in Australian corporate history. Administrators of collapsed New South Wales company Delma Form Specialists have reported that the tax office alleges the firm was part of a group of 30 including labor hire that it suspects may have been secretly controlled by Delma director Igore Gleeson, collapsing owing pay-as-you-go tax over 15 years.
The alleged tax scheme has yet to be substantiated, but if proven would be bigger than any previous corporate tax frauds, surpassing Plutus Payroll's $15 million fraud and the record $135 million fraud by former NAB executive Anthony Dixon. Delma is one of the largest formwork firms in New South Wales. Competitors state it repeatedly tendered prices 15 to 20% below other bidders for tier one projects including the state government's $476 million Victoria Cross station development at North Sydney. Formwork involves laying the structures into which concrete is poured during construction. Jones Partners principals Bruce Heckenberg and Daniel SA were appointed as voluntary administrators of Delma Form Specialists late last year and confirmed the ATO had notified them about its investigation after their appointment.
Most of the companies involved in the alleged fraud include a series of labor hire firms swapped out every two to three years have been placed into external administration and are understood to have inadequate or poor records. The Delma case follows a separate investigation into an alleged tax fraud of up to $70 million involving another New South Wales construction firm Titan Crane which is headed by Sydney Olympic FC president Damien Handler. Titan denies any wrongdoing or involvement in the alleged scheme. The ATO is funding home advisory liquidator Steven Hathaway to investigate the Delma group and to take control of DFS after it emerged Mr. Gleeson had been the administrator of other related Delma entities in 2010 and 2011.
And major CBD office towers are selling at 20% discounts to their peak value, the best evidence yet that the correction in Australia's office market is nearing the bottom. The latest deals in play include the 16-story building at 628 Burke Street Melbourne which was bought seven years ago for a little over $180 million by Swiss fund manager AFIA and is now set to be acquired for $120 million. In Brisbane, US giant Brookfield found a buyer for its $300 million tower at 240 Queen Street, with boutique syndicator Quintessential Equity raising capital for a sale price at $257 million according to a deal flyer.
Also closely watched by the market are two proposed divestments including ASX-listed Mirvac. The first at Sydney's 255 George Street is held in a fund now managed by Mirvac. A half stake is under offer from Singapore's Keppel at a price that values the entire tower at about $730 million. Two years ago at peak the tower was worth $875 million, meaning its market value is now around 17.7% lower. In Melbourne, Mirvac is close to finalizing a deal to sell a Collins Street building having written down its book value to around $34 million.