Musabbeh Al Kaabi11:37
The energy portfolio—petroleum and petrochemicals—in Mubadala is fully diversified across the full value chain. We have assets under management of around $40 billion, active in upstream, midstream, and downstream, including petrochemicals, and we're now exploring the energy transition. For the audience not fully aware, Mubadala is a sovereign wealth fund and global investor with $229 billion in assets under management, active in 15 different sectors including traditional energy, information technology, real estate, healthcare, and technology. Back in 2005-2006, we decided to be ahead of the game and invest more in renewables. We're very proud that one of the leading renewable energy companies in the region and globally, Masdar, is part of our family. We're a diversified institution when it comes to energy—the fully integrated oil and gas business. We have been impacted strongly by COVID-19, and it's across the board—not just energy; every sector in the economy has been impacted.
Back in 2019, when organizations like Mubadala run their business plans, we envisaged a correction—probably the worst case scenario would be a recession with an equity market correction of around 30%. But we had not envisaged a pandemic of the scale we see currently. I'm really proud of what we've done with the portfolio because when something like this hits, the first question is how do we ensure we emerge efficient and resilient. I'm proud of the collective work done by Mubadala and its assets to come up with hundreds and thousands of initiatives to weather this storm. However, it might have some long-lasting impact, and we're currently assessing what that could be. Like any other institution, we came up with three basic recovery scenarios: V-shaped, U-shaped, and L-shaped. We rolled out the V-shaped recovery model, and now we're more focused—I would say 70% probability that we're experiencing a U-shaped global economic recovery. We think global GDP will drop significantly this year, but next year we hope the global economy will recover to a growth of around 5%. For the L-shaped recovery, we're monitoring that scenario, but currently there's about a 30% probability. We're keeping our eyes open and adjusting accordingly. Our vision is to emerge with minimum damage and as resilient as possible. The good news is that this isn't the first time we've seen a big disruptive event—in 2014-2015, I managed Mubadala's upstream business when oil prices dropped to almost $20. We initiated a big campaign to ensure future resilience, and those initiatives from 2016 have proven very rewarding. I'm very proud that we're already partially ready for these situations, and we're tackling it professionally. There's truly amazing work being done by many people, and I see it on our assets—we're doing our best to emerge stronger from this recession.