Chairman of the Board (Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı), Doğanlar Mobilya Grubu (Doğtaş Kelebek Mobilya / Kelebek Mobilya)
Doğanlar Mobilya Hangi Pazarda Büyümeyi Hedefliyor? Doğanlar Mobilya Grubu YKB İsmail Doğan Açıkladı
HABER | Son Dakika Haber ve Güncel Haberler #Haber #SonDakika #APara #Canlı #Gündem #Borsa #Altın #emekli A ...
Transcript (60 segments)
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Host0:00
Good afternoon. It's Tuesday, October 8th, and it's 15:00. We'll be together for one hour to evaluate developments. We'll have guests and follow the economy closely. Let's take a look at the main agenda items.
The Treasury is closely monitoring athletes who pay low taxes. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said athletes who don't properly declare their earnings will be called to account, and unpaid taxes will be demanded with penalties. He stated that comprehensive audits targeting those with high undeclared income continue under our understanding of justice and efficiency in taxation.
Work is underway to protect energy infrastructure from cybersecurity threats. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alpaslan Bayraktar said efforts to protect critical infrastructure from potential cyber risks using domestic and national solutions are being conducted in a multi-layered, 24/7 manner. He emphasized that energy supply security continues to be a fundamental agenda item for all countries.
55 provinces increased their exports in the January-September period. In Turkey's 9-month period, 27 provinces exported over 1 billion dollars, while 55 provinces raised their export levels.
In September, gold bullion provided the highest real return. The Turkish Statistical Institute announced the real return rates of investment instruments. The highest monthly real return, deflated by the domestic producer price index, was 4.67% for gold bullion.
Messages on interest rates are coming from Fed members. Expectations that the Fed will continue its rate-cutting process with smaller steps are growing. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated the economy is resilient. New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a slower pace of rate cuts after September's half-point move. St. Louis Fed President Musalem also supported further rate cuts as the economy progresses on a healthy path.
China did not announce the expected stimulus package. After a one-week holiday in China, strong buying was seen in markets, but the lack of expected strong fiscal stimulus news led to declines. We've also shared notes from Asian markets.
Let's look at the market picture. The BIST 100 index shows a flat, positive trend, trading at 90,056 points. It's trying to hold above 99,000 — last week it was trying to hold above 10,000 points. The S&P 500 also shows a flat, positive trend at 10,331 points.
Banking is up 0.9%, insurance up 0.4%, tourism up 1.2%, sports down 2.2%, real estate flat positive, technology down 1.2%, insurance down 0.3%, chemicals flat positive, construction flat negative, mining positive, IT losses exceeding 1%.
The biggest gainers on BIST today include Odaş Elektrik, Otokar, BİM Mağazalar, YEO Teknik, and Çan 2 Termik. The biggest decliners are Gübre Fabrika, Kardemir, Enerya Enerji, Tofaş, and Ereğli Demir Çelik. Now let's go to İntegral Yatırım. Market expert Deniz Karaca is with us.
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Deniz Karaca4:01
Hello, welcome. Good broadcast. We started the week with a positive opening on the back of buying reactions, but with volatile movements, the index completed yesterday at 99,032, just above the 99,000 level. There are recovery moves now, but how strong they are remains uncertain.
Last week we faced inflation figures well above expectations, which delayed rate cut expectations. This removed the near-term narrative for the index. The stock market's biggest rival, the interest rate, is delaying the rate-cutting process, and the continuation of a high-rate environment continues to pressure Borsa Istanbul.
On the other hand, we'll start receiving third-quarter financial statements this month. We may see sectoral divergences — sectors and companies that positively benefit from the high interest rate environment could stand out. September PMI figures came in quite low, so the industrial sector may remain weak for a while. Today we had a flat, positive opening, but volatile movements continue. Determining direction is quite difficult.
For the recovery effort to gain strength, the index needs to hold above 9,200 and subsequently above the 200-day moving average at 9,550. We need established levels. If selling pressure continues technically, we're watching 8,850 as the support zone. Below that, we could see pullbacks toward 8,700.
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Host6:16
Thank you very much, Ms. Deniz. Wishing you ease and a good broadcast. We got the stock market developments from İntegral Yatırım. Today, we continue talking with important actors of the economy. Today we'll look at the economy through the eyes of the furniture sector. Doğanlar Mobilya Grubu Chairman of the Board İsmail Doğan will be with us. Welcome.
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İsmail Doğan6:41
Hello, good to be here. Now, İsmail Bey — we're talking about the economy, talking about it sector by sector, and we've been living through and evaluating this past 9, actually 10 months. How do you evaluate the current situation, both from your company's perspective and the furniture sector's? How were the first 9 months of 2024?
Now, as you know, there's an economic contraction in Turkey, and the furniture sector has certainly been affected. When we look at it, we felt the crisis a bit more intensely in the first quarter. But from the second quarter onward, from the fourth month onwards and continuing into this third quarter — which is the wedding season for furniture, our advantage — even though there's a contraction in the market, the fact that weddings are happening has positively affected our business. People aren't giving up on getting married.
We, as Doğanlar Mobilya Group and Doğtaş Kelebek, are of course making the best use of this advantage in the furniture sector. Right now, we're taking every action to reach our targets — campaigns, installment options that consumers particularly love. We're trying to incentivize the market and keep our brands dynamic through these installment opportunities and campaigns.
Now let me ask — how are things going for you? Because according to the balance sheet, you've achieved a growth rate of 77%. How did you catch that? Well, first of all, when we set our budgets each year, we target 20-25% growth in dollar terms. When we look at this 77% growth, in unit terms we have 25% growth, which is substantial. We've reached approximately 780 stores — we grew our store count from 700 to 780.
We're growing both in store numbers and with our own brands — Doğtaş, Kelebek, and our new mattress brand Lova — we're the fastest-growing group in the sector with innovations and widespread presence. As we increase variety in our stores — from garden and balcony furniture to home decoration and kitchenware — consumers who come to our stores can find every category they need. Previously they might make bulk purchases, but now they can buy modularly and come shop whenever their budget allows.
In terms of our balance sheet, our second-quarter net profit and EBITDA both grew 77%, and we're setting records in the sector. Since we're a publicly listed company, we'll also disclose the third quarter. We expect it to be very strong, similar to Q2. For the year-end, we plan to close with 77% growth, 115% EBITDA, and 78% net profit margin.
When we look at which markets and product segments drove growth — domestically, we've expanded through store count. By year-end, all our brands will have nearly 800 stores. Abroad, we're at 700 stores now, with 20 more coming, targeting 80 by year-end with our three brands. We also have an online brand, Room Store, expanding our e-commerce. On the export side, we've positioned Doğtaş in the American market — the world's largest furniture consumption market — and established a distribution center there.
We want to grow our sales and market through both online and wholesale channels in America. For Kelebek, we've positioned in the UK. Due to the Middle East situation, we've been covering those gaps through Africa, America, and UK markets. Our target is to raise our current 22% export share to approximately 25% within five years. Both domestically and internationally, our growth strategies and investments continue.
In Africa, we established a furniture factory. In about 13 months, we've become Africa's largest furniture factory. Our location is in Senegal, in West Africa. The surrounding ECOWAS countries have their own union — 15 countries with a combined population of 500 million. Africa is a genuinely hungry market. With our Big 10 brand, we've already established 25 stores there in a short time, and we're gradually expanding to other countries. We'll continue growing in Africa.
First of all, we're making significant innovations in our factories — digitalization, improving human resources and workforce quality, and investing heavily in technology. This makes us more efficient. As we become efficient, our competitiveness increases both domestically and internationally. When competitiveness grows, we gain market share even in a contracting market. While our real target is 14-15% EBITDA, creating 13% EBITDA in Turkey's current crisis conditions is very important for us, our investors, and our partners.
The reason for the 18% net profit margin is partly due to high credit card costs and interest rates. Normally, with 13-14% EBITDA, net profit should be lower, but the 2% gap comes from elevated interest expenses. However, there's generally a difficulty in the sector in translating EBITDA into net profit. We're still achieving 18% net profit, and we plan to maintain that year-end — which would be a very significant achievement for us.
Kelebek factories started producing their own energy some time ago. Doğtaş will begin its own production within 15 days. When we start generating 100% of our own energy in the fourth quarter, it will contribute approximately 1% to our EBITDA and net profit — a very significant ratio. Hopefully that 13% will reach 14% in Q4, with this additional 1% gain from producing our own energy.
Yes, we're among the top firms in patent applications in design and R&D. To earn your place in the global landscape and increase domestic competitiveness, your R&D, designs, and innovations must be strong. We as a group are doing this very well.
Generally, we work on everything related to home living. After the pandemic, people are prioritizing comfort in their homes — how can comfort be achieved, relaxation in narrow spaces, creating wide possibilities and peaceful environments. We're constantly thinking about what will satisfy consumers and earn their recommendations. Our entire team works in this direction.
Africa's culture is very different. Based on our research into African culture, we brief our teams and send them to Africa. We observe consumers' living conditions in their homes and produce products suited to their world. America is a very different consumer society, and we produce accordingly. We participate in global fairs — in America, China, Italy — where we observe local cultures and competition. Being close to Italian and Mediterranean countries helps us see complementary products, but we must produce country-specific items, and we do.
Currently we're in the top seven globally. Seven or eight years ago we were around 18th. Through our work and discussions with industry colleagues, our goal is to enter the top five and reach a 10 billion dollar export volume. Turkey truly has the capacity for this, and we're seriously preparing our group for it. We want to bring our own Turkish brands to that level.
Our biggest competitors are China and Italy. China is price-focused, Italy is design-focused. We say our designs are Italian and our prices are Chinese, so we're working from the middle. We explain that Turkish products are more competitive, and the best way to demonstrate this is at trade fairs — where they see Chinese products, Italian products, and our branded products side by side.
When we open a stand in Italy, people walk in, see Doğtaş Exclusive, and assume we're an Italian company. When we say we're Turkish, producing in Turkey, they're shocked and surprised. We've reached that level of quality.
Sustainability is a topic that all companies must embrace. We established the sustainability office for the first time in the furniture sector. We started with five engineers. The core idea is that we have a holding company with a bioenergy subsidiary that produces electricity from solid waste. We collaborate with them — our solid waste is sent there and converted to energy.
As we mentioned, having solar power plants in our factories supports sustainability. In the fabrics and furniture we use, we've started using sustainable and recyclable materials, and we're displaying these in our stores. Today's producer is more conscious, using recyclable materials and renewable energy. Because today, to sell products to Europe, you must be a sustainable company — otherwise you have no chance of selling. Europe has set that barrier. They require documentation, not just verbal claims — they come and inspect. Our company has all the necessary certifications. America and Europe now require these documents, and we're prepared.
E-commerce was 1% before the pandemic, 4% after, and we've now reached 5%. This will continue growing. The new generation wants quick shopping from home without visiting stores. We use the world's best SAP system and invest heavily in IT infrastructure, digitalization, and automation. At least 70-80% of our investments now go to digitalization, AI, and automation. To be a sustainable company, you must do this. Accessing data and reaching consumers — having all that data to operate efficiently and see everything at the click of a button — speed is what matters most. Companies that capture that speed succeed.
Today, Doğanlar Mobilya is up 0.6%. We have Doğanlar, Doğtaş, Kelebek, and Lova. The holding side is separate from us. We have two publicly traded companies. As for dividends — this year we're distributing dividends for the first time, 100 million lira. Going forward, as a sustainable company, we plan to distribute increasing dividends to our shareholders every year.
The stock market values of companies are very low right now. Looking at my own company's valuation, despite the operations and revenue I've generated, my market value doesn't even reflect 23 years of investment. There are genuinely significant opportunities in the stock market right now. To satisfy our investors, we're working with all our heart and soul, and we will reach our targets. We're a profit-oriented company, and as we profit, we'll share with our partners through dividends.
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Host27:55
Thank you very much. We spoke with Doğanlar Mobilya Chairman of the Board İsmail Doğan and evaluated the furniture sector. Now let's also talk about the construction sector. Here's a special interview with Artaş Holding Chairman of the Board Süleyman Çayan.
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Süleyman Çay28:16
At our breakfast on March 5th, we said six of our projects would be delivered in 2024. We've started deliveries — some completed, the rest in November. Six projects totaling 821,000 square meters of construction, 2,500 apartments, and 450 commercial units. May it be beneficial for our citizens. There are new projects coming — Profilo in Mecidiyeköy with two projects, one delivering June 2025, the other starting at year-end for 2026 delivery. Also, the Eczacıbaşı project in Cendere Vadisi — a continuation of Vadi İstanbul — two islands, 500,000 square meters of new housing.
I think recovery won't come before 2026. Without single-digit interest rates, we can't make citizens homeowners. Citizens can't own housing at these high rates. Inflation needs to drop to around 10% for people to access housing loans. Right now, the apartments we're selling are mostly to existing homeowners looking to renew or those with the means. People ask if it's the right time to buy — with bank interest at 45-50%, why would they buy property when they can earn that from a bank? But real estate is always solid — with 60% inflation, even 45% bank interest doesn't compare. Construction costs are rising — what costs 50,000 lira per square meter today will cost 70,000 tomorrow and 80,000 the day after.
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Host31:09
The countdown for the Second International Awareness Summit has begun. Today at MÜSİAD, there was a meeting. MÜSİAD Women's Branch President Meryem İl bahar Kocağa made evaluations. 'Women transforming the world with the power of productivity' will gather at MÜSİAD headquarters on October 19th for new stories and inspiration. With us is MÜSİAD Women's Chair Meryem İl bahar Kocağa. Welcome.
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Meryem İl bahar Kocağa31:46
This will be our second summit. The first was in 2022 at Atatürk Cultural Center. We addressed entrepreneurship, digital, environment, and health themes. This summit carries the motto 'We don't care' and we'll discuss work-life balance. The aim is creating awareness — for us, family and work-life balance is truly important.
The summit will feature very valuable guests — role models in their work, family, and social lives. Afyon Governor Kübra Güran Yiğitbaşı will be with us. Opet owners Nurtan and Fikret Öztürk — over 50 years of marriage, nearly 40 years of business partnership — will be hosted in the first session. We'll host major names from the business world, targeting young people, young entrepreneurs, and businesswomen.
After the first summit, we took action. Topics included migration, entrepreneurship, digital, environment, and health. We launched the 'Transformation begins at home, education starts with the mother' project, along with 'Inspiring Meetings' and other initiatives. Our goal is to make the summit topics the agenda for the next two years.
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Host34:12
Let's look at commodities. Oil is down 2%, with American WTI at $75.50. Brent crude at $95, down 1.7%. Natural gas down 0.4%. Gold flat positive at $2,643. Silver at $31, down 1.7%. Platinum down 1.2% at $965. Palladium down 1% at $1,017.
In agricultural commodities: cotton down 2.3% at $71. Cocoa up 2.8% at $7,103. Coffee up 1.4% at $248. Sugar flat negative at $22.50. Wheat flat negative at $590. Corn down 0.6% at $422.
Now let's get a stock market assessment from GCM Investment Research Director Kudret Ayyıldırı.
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Kudret Ayyıldırı35:52
After the MPC decision, the market was struggling to find a new narrative. The tightness of monetary policy created pressure, expectations weakened, and the break downward was compounded by the absence of short-selling alternatives, the continued attractiveness of alternative returns, and global dynamics — with August 5th being the most important factor.
Putting it all together, the stock market saw about a 12% correction over the last two months. Banks, holdings, services, and industry all showed reactions roughly in line with the index. The market was focused on the central bank's rate-cutting process, but the inflation figure came in well above expectations, changing year-end expectations and delaying the central bank's rate cut timing. The index showed about a 12% decline. While the central bank will eventually cut rates at some point, the delay on top of existing negativity has increased losses. In the new period, the key equation will be what new narrative emerges — likely tied to a central bank policy change. But new quarter expectations aren't optimistic either. All scenarios for the stock market are currently not very optimistic, which is why we're not seeing confirmed recovery trends in pricing behavior.
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Host38:51
September's return champion was gold bullion. Let's look at the other investment instruments.
In September, gold bullion was the highest-returning investment. The Turkish Statistical Institute announced the real return rates. Gold bullion provided the highest real return — 4.67% deflated by PPI and 3.04% by CPI. Deposits gave 1.90%, Euro 0.63%, and government bonds positive real returns, while the dollar lost 25% and BIST 100 lost 2.79%. Deflated by CPI, deposits gave 32%, Euro 0.3%, bonds 1.06%, dollar 1.80%, and BIST 4.30%. Gold bullion's 3-month real return was 11.70% by PPI and 7.75% by CPI, the highest. BIST 100 lost 10.67% by PPI and 13.8% by CPI over 3 months. Year-to-date, deposits gave 7.8% by PPI and 2.79% by CPI. On a yearly basis, gold bullion provided the highest real return, while Euro lost 1.62%, deposits 4.6%, dollar 5.3%, BIST 14.4%, and bonds 4.44%.
After the Fed's September 50-basis-point rate cut, what will the outlook look like going forward? Will the Fed cut rates again? Strong non-farm payrolls and the American election are shifting expectations.
Following last week's employment data, expectations grew that the Fed will continue with smaller steps in its rate-cutting process. Market pricing shows an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in November, with a 50-basis-point cut completely off the table.
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the economy is resilient — the balance of risks has shifted from high inflation to potentially higher unemployment. New York Fed President Williams signaled support for a slower pace after September's half-point move, saying the Fed is well-positioned for a soft landing. St. Louis Fed President Musalem supported further cuts as the economy progresses healthily, noting it's appropriate for the Fed not to overdo easing.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler strongly supported the half-point cut in September and said she'd support additional cuts if inflation continues declining. 'If inflation progress continues as expected, I'll support further rate reductions to move toward a more neutral stance.'
Let's return to real estate. There's a new application — a next-generation real estate acquisition model: shared property ownership. Simpaş has announced this. Let's bring you the exclusive statements from Simpaş Vice Chairman Ahmet Çelik.
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Ahmet Çelik43:50
First, congratulations. You announced a new system today — the shared property model. In this high-inflation, high-interest environment, housing access is very difficult. We wanted to create a new model. We'll take completed properties up to 10 million lira, divide them into 10 shares, and sell each share to property investors. We'll rent out these properties and guarantee rental income within three months. Share holders will start receiving rental income. After one year, they can sell their shares through any platform, our online system, or use them as down payments for new Simpaş properties. This process takes six years. If any share holder wants to buy all shares, they can at that day's valuation price. If even one share holder wants to sell, the entire property is sold, and proceeds are distributed among all share holders.
This system makes real estate investment very accessible. The advantage is that real estate appreciates more than all other investment instruments. Looking back 5, 10, or even 50 years, no instrument has appreciated as much as real estate. Turkish people's home ownership rate is declining, and we created this system to facilitate access to property. As for payment — a share holder pays 25% down. For example, on a 5 million lira property, a 500,000 lira share requires 125,000 lira down, with the remaining 375,000 paid in 10 monthly installments of 37,500 lira.
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Host47:38
We've reached the end of our broadcast. We'll be here tomorrow when it's 15:00. Good evening.