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Jon Feltheimer
Chief Executive Officer, Lionsgate Studios Corp.

Lions Gate Entertainment's LGF A CEO Jon Feltheimer on Q4 2020 Results

🎥 May 22, 2020 📺 Daily Earnings Calls ⏱ 71m 👁 58 views
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About Jon Feltheimer

Jon Feltheimer, CEO of Lionsgate, has emphasized the enduring value of the company's content library, describing it as having "incredible value" that increases over time. During a 2020 earnings call, he noted that the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated the existence of an at-home audience for movies and suggested that distribution models could change, while reaffirming the company's commitment to theatrical exhibition. He also stated that the company was "pretty well positioned for this new world" and was continuing to explore potential transactions that would leverage the library and unlock value. Feltheimer has long advocated for a disciplined, entrepreneurial approach to the media business. In earlier remarks, he described the industry as "vibrant and ripe with opportunity" and argued that new digital windows, such as the Netflix deal, carry "tremendous value" for content creators. He has stressed the importance of keeping overhead low—noting Lionsgate's overhead was less than nine percent of revenue—and of mitigating risk through cost discipline rather than relying solely on financial partners. Feltheimer has also said that the key to success is allowing talented people to make decisions and learn from mistakes, stating that "the magic comes from entrepreneurial people who really can take ideas that other people haven't thought of."

Source: AI-verified profile updated from Jon Feltheimer's recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (68 segments)
O
Operator0:00
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Lions Gate Entertainment fourth-quarter 2020 call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later we'll have the opportunity for your questions. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I'd like to turn the conference over to Jay Marsh, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
J
Jay Marsh0:21
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us for the Lions Gate fiscal 2014 skol? We'll begin with opening remarks from our CEO Jon Feltheimer, followed by remarks from our CFO Jimmy Barge. After the remarks, we'll open the call for questions. Also joining us on the call today are Vice Chairman Michael Burns, CEO O'Brien Goldsmith, Chairman of the TV Group Kevin Beggs, and the Chairman of the Motion Picture Group Joe Drake. And from Stars, we have President and CEO Jeff Hirsh, CFO Scott McDonald, and EVP of International Soprano Kali. The matters discussed on this call today include forward-looking statements, including those regarding the performance of future fiscal years. Such statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially and adversely from those described in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. These include the risk factors set forth in Lions Gate's most recent annual report on Form 10-K. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly release the results of any revisions to these forward-looking statements that may be made to reflect any future events or circumstances. With that, I'll turn it over to John.
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Jon Feltheimer1:34
John, good afternoon. Thank you James, and thank you all for joining us in these extraordinary times. I hope you're staying safe and healthy. A few months ago, I could never have imagined some of the things we'd be talking about on this call: our employees working from home, film and television production suspended, movie theaters closed, and all of the other emergency adjustments we've made due to the pandemic. But as we report a strong quarter to end a fiscal year in line with our forecast, I'm also struck by how much we're continuing to accomplish, moving the company forward on all fronts despite all of the challenges around them, and generating a lot of momentum heading into our new fiscal year. Let me share a few recent highlights, and then I'll drill down on each of our businesses and talk about how we're transforming them to continue to operate successfully in this new normal. Stars streaming business is thriving in the at-home environment as we reach 6.8 million paid domestic over-the-top subscribers in the quarter, well in excess of our projections, and it has continued strong growth since then. Our Stars Play international platform is showing strong gains as well, with viewership up 20% since the pandemic began, driving international subscribers, including the Stars Play Arabia platform and Canada, past the 5 million mark at fiscal year-end. Pantalla more than doubled its subscriber base from 315,000 to nearly 700,000 paid subs in the fiscal year as it continues to deliver on its promise as the premium over-the-top destination for Spanish-language movies and original programming. We extended some of our biggest franchises, announcing the big-screen adaptation of Suzanne Collins' Hunger Games prequel, 'The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,' to be directed by Francis Lawrence. The new book is already driving triple-digit sales growth of The Hunger Games titles in our catalogue. American Hustle's Eric Warren Singer is writing '90 C3,' and we're preparing to begin production on John Wick 4. 'Spiral,' our reimagining of Saw teaming Chris Rock and Samuel L. Jackson, opens next May. In television, we remain a supplier of choice for new buyers, with the romantic comedy 'Love Life' starring Anna Kendrick debuting on HBO Max next week. They've already announced that the series will be a centerpiece of their first Emmy campaign. As the global pandemic accelerates secular changes already in progress, our businesses are already well positioned to weather the current disruption and emerge stronger than ever in the new normal. To start, we have a great subscription platform at Stars that is profitable, growing, and a major contributor to earnings in this current environment. Our content that has already been produced is more valuable than ever, with library revenue hitting a record $600 million in the fiscal year, and our key brands generating higher license fees as we continue to extend them. We have full film and television pipelines poised to resume production, and a slate of movies ready to distribute when theaters reopen. And we have plenty of financial flexibility and liquidity with over $300 million in available cash at the end of the quarter and an undrawn revolver of $1.5 billion. The goal of combining Lions Gate and Stars was to build a premium global subscription platform backed by the full resources of our companies. Today, that effort is achieving results. Our global streaming business reached more than 10 million worldwide over-the-top subs at the end of the quarter and will continue to grow to between 13 and 15 million paid subs by the end of the fiscal year. In a world where the value of making great content is matched only by the importance of determining how it's monetized, we're increasingly able to control our destiny through the continued rapid growth of the direct-to-consumer Stars app, which is now our third largest distribution platform in the United States. We continue to apply a consumer-facing, data-driven strategy to the benefit of our over-the-top and MVPD partners alike. Our success in transitioning our shared Comcast customers to Alucard efficiently and effectively in the quarter allows us to continue to build on our long-standing partnership. On the programming front, we've established ourselves domestically as a premium destination for women and diverse audiences with a mix of proven hits like 'Outlander,' which completed its fifth season outperforming season four and earning rave reviews; returning favorites such as Steven Soderbergh's 'The Girlfriend Experience' and a second installment of 'The Spanish Princess'; and exciting new series like the recently debuted crime drama 'Hightown' from producer Jerry Bruckheimer that is resonating with our subscribers. These will be followed by the sexy and spirited comedy series 'Run the World' from 'Dear White People''s executive producer Lee Bowser; the family drama 'Heels' set in the world of small-town wrestling; and the next two highly anticipated series in our expanding Power universe franchise, 'Ghost' and 'Raising Kanan.' As we end the first full year of our international expansion, I'm pleased to report that we have launched in 50 countries ahead of schedule and exceeding our subscriber targets. That growth is driven by a blend of Stars originals, first-run library features, and best-in-class acquisitions that make up an attractively priced, best-of-global premium content offering for consumers. This positions us as a complementary premium tier to other OTT services and allows us to align ourselves with top distributors from Amazon to Apple, Roku to Orange, Airtel to Total Play, augmented by the Stars Play app already live in eight countries as we continue our march towards our target of 15 to 25 million international subscribers by 2025. Recent additions like Tony McNamara's 'The Great' starring Elle Fanning and Nicholas Hoult, 'Normal People' based on the best-selling book, and the award-winning anthology series 'The Act,' combined with an anticipated ramp-up of our local productions, will continue to diversify our slate and differentiate our platforms. We've charted this course, funded it out of our own free cash flow. Our growth is on schedule, and value creation is within our sight. Turning to our Motion Picture Group, we pivoted quickly during the quarter, showing the kind of strength and agility that has transformed us into a top five domestic box office market share leader. When theaters shut down two days into the release of the Irwin Brothers' 'I Still Believe,' we immediately repositioned the film to launch in an exclusive premium video-on-demand window with structured price points, including a special Easter promotion, followed by an early debut on packaged media, electronic sell-through, and traditional video-on-demand to mitigate its lost theatrical revenue. When theaters reopen, we'll be ready. Our slate is stocked with big brands and properties like 'Spiral'; 'The Hitman's Bodyguard 2' starring Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, and Salma Hayek; and John Wick 4. It's deep in comedies like 'The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent' starring Nicolas Cage and 'Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar' starring Kristen Wiig. It includes the horror thriller 'Antebellum' starring Janelle Monáe, the Dean Taylor-directed Hilary Swank thriller 'PayPal,' and the Neil Burger-directed sci-fi feature 'Voyagers.' And it has uplifting stories for our times like the Irwin Brothers' inspiring 'American Underdog: The Kurt Warner Story.' Though our feature film production operations have been paused, the process of refilling our pipeline with exciting blue-chip properties has not. During the quarter, we launched—landed, excuse me—the movie rights to Judy Blume's iconic bestseller 'Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret,' the first time one of her books has been brought to the screen, and added two-time Academy Award winner Cate Blanchett to the cast of 'Borderlands.' We won an auction for '16 States,' the zombie thriller to be directed by 'Evil Dead''s Fede Alvarez. Obviously, our theatrical production and release schedules are caveated by the uncertainties in the movie business right now: questions about when production will resume, what kind of protocols we will need to put in place, when theaters will reopen, and how moviegoing habits will change. But we address all of these issues with an agile, data-driven, and forward-looking film business that continues to extend and expand our biggest franchises, collaborates with our talent to create bold original new properties, and brings to all of our distributors a uniquely diverse and flexible slate. Turning to Television, we shut down nearly 20 series and pilots virtually overnight when the pandemic hit. But we repositioned ourselves quickly, keeping cast and crew safe, shifting our focus from production to development, and setting up over a dozen virtual writers' rooms to keep talent engaged. We've already seen an uptick in backup script orders for pilots and current series, paving the way for our production to shift into high gear when it's time to restart. The resonance of our premium content continues to open doors with new buyers. On the heels of our partnership with HBO Max on 'Love Life,' they will launch our docusoap 'The House of Ho' on July 16th, ordered two more production pilots, and picked up the first television series from that partnership, the Christmas-themed adult animated comedy 'Santa Inc' featuring the voices of Seth Rogen and Sarah Silverman. Our Television Group's emphasis on creating great programming for Stars continues. A year ago, we had no Lionsgate television series on the air at Stars and a few in development. Today, we have over 20 Lionsgate television series either in production, post-production, or development for our platforms. Exciting properties like 'Heel,' 'Dangerously Yours,' 'Run the World,' and the next three Power-inspired series are just a few of the shows ready to resume or begin production when production can resume safely. Against the backdrop of economic disruption, we are the beneficiaries of diversification across our businesses and within each of our groups. In the TV group, Pilgrim will be one of the first companies going to camera on the competition reality series 'Most Likely' in late June. Debmar-Mercury transitioned its long-running hit daytime talk show 'Wendy Williams' to a fully remote production filming from her living room. And 3 Arts executed a quarantine episode of 'Mythic Quest: Raven's Banquet' filmed entirely on cast members' iPhones that debuts tomorrow. In closing, I want to say how proud I am of our employees for rising to the challenge of these unprecedented times with optimism, a can-do attitude, and the collaborative team spirit that is our trademark. We often talk about our culture being our secret sauce, and during these past few months, it has driven our company forward. We responded to the global pandemic with a simple four-point plan: first, protecting our people by making sure that everything was safe and could work effectively from home; second, returning to the old normal by making plans to allow people to come back to the office and get our films and television shows up and running again under new protocols; third, defining the new normal by reimagining our businesses and how they'll operate going forward; and finally, identifying the opportunities that are emerging all around us. Everything in our plan is centered around our employees, our talent, and our production and distribution partners as we continue to navigate uncharted waters. The view is towards emerging from the current crisis even stronger than we were before. And in this process, we're guided by the same north star principles that have always guided us: being financially and strategically diversified, creating and owning iconic intellectual property with tremendous evergreen value, positioning ourselves where the puck is going not where it has already been, and reaping the benefits of our collaborative and entrepreneurial culture. Thank you all very much. And now, I'll turn things over to Jimmy.
J
Jimmy Barge14:26
Thanks John, and good afternoon everyone. I'll briefly discuss our fiscal fourth-quarter financial results and update you on our fiscal '21 outlook. Fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDAR was $126 million, while revenue was up 3% to $944 million. Reported fully diluted earnings per share was a loss of $0.20, and fully diluted adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.21. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $175 million. For the full year, adjusted free cash flow was $349 million. Now let me briefly discuss the fiscal fourth-quarter performance of the underlying segments compared to the prior year quarter. You can follow along in our trending schedules that have been posted to our website and show greater detail around our global Media Network subscribers. Media Networks quarterly revenue of $358 million was relatively flat from last year, and segment profit came in at $26 million. Globally, on a pro-forma basis and including Stars Play Arabia, the company added 4.4 million subscribers year-over-year up 22%, reaching 24.6 million global subscribers at the end of the quarter. Domestically, total subs were 18.9 million, which was up 2.1 million from the prior year pro forma, adjusted for changes in distribution packaging. You can see more detail in the new sub disclosures included in our trending schedules. Now looking at sequential performance for fiscal fourth-quarter, total global subs were up 2.3 million pro forma, driven by strong domestic OTT subscriber gains. Importantly, we now have over 10 million OTT subs including Stars, Stars Play International, Stars Play Arabia, and Pantalla. I should also note that our sub counts all represent paid subscribers. Now turning to Motion Picture Group, revenue increased 10% in the quarter to $393 million, and segment profit came in at $101 million. Motion Picture Group turned in a very strong year, improving segment profits by more than 60% to $209 million. In the quarter, the performance in our film group was largely due to strong TV licensing and lower P&A spend that more than offset box office underperformance related to theater closures. And finally, TV production revenue came in at $258 million, while segment profit was $22 million. Segment profit increased 10% year-over-year as the strength of library titles and G&A savings more than offset the prior year quarter's tough comp for 'Orange Is the New Black.' Now I'd like to provide an update on our fiscal '21 outlook as well as our balance sheet. As everyone on this call is aware, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the governmental response to the pandemic has been unprecedented. Accordingly, we have a limited framework with which to assess the ultimate impact on our business model and forecast. We believe we have a diversified and resilient business model that is well positioned to benefit from the shift to at-home consumption. But there could be disruptions to our business as we navigate workplace safety, government regulation, and evolving consumer trends. Accordingly, due to the heightened uncertainty and limited visibility related to the COVID-19 situation, we don't believe it is prudent to provide specific forecasts for revenue or EBITDAR at this time. Rather, we will be providing some inputs to help you build your models. Let me provide some color for fiscal '21 by segments, as we did on our last call. First, in Media Networks, as you know, it's our largest contributor to segment profits. Recall, this is a subscription-based business with heavy at-home consumption, so we have pretty good visibility and we like what we see with significant increases in viewership and over-the-top subscribers on both our domestic and international services. That said, we have potential disruptions to content deliveries, are cycling through a new distribution deal, and are fully investing in our international opportunity. So our previous flattish segment profit view is largely on track. As John mentioned, we expect Media Networks' over-the-top global subscribers of between 13 to 15 million for fiscal '21, with the midpoint representing 30% plus growth. Now looking at Motion Picture and TV. Recall, our pre-COVID commentary on Motion Picture Group segment profit for fiscal '21 was down due to difficult comparisons and timing of the slate, and that TV would also see significant profit growth in the year, in part driven by the licensing of pre-existing IP. That year-over-year comparison is largely intact, but production delays and theatrical disruptions will result in some uncertainty and a shift in business to the right, as some revenue and profit move from fiscal '21 into fiscal '22. Now on the balance sheet, our leverage ended the year at 5.2 times adjusted EBITDAR, or 3.9 times excluding our investment in Stars Play International. During the year, net debt decreased over $300 million, ending at $2.4 billion. We were opportunistic in the quarter and purchased some term loan B bonds and a modest amount of stock during the market dislocation. And we will continue to allocate capital in a thoughtful manner. We ended the year with ample liquidity, with well over $300 million of cash on hand and a $1.5 billion undrawn revolver. In addition, we have no maturities until the very end of fiscal '23. We remain committed to paying down debt with the bulk of our excess free cash flow. Lastly, we remain comfortable with our maintenance covenants based on our revised forecast and having further stress tested them for longer production and theatrical delays, as well as the potential negative impact of a recession. Now I'd like to turn the call over to James for Q&A.
J
James (Operator)21:51
Thanks Amy. We're ready to go with Q&A at this stage. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you may press 1, then 0 now. One moment for our first question.
D
David Miller22:34
Dave Miller, your line is open. Yeah, sorry about that, some technical issues. Hey guys, congratulations on stellar results. Jimmy, a couple questions for you, and then Joe Drake if you're on, I have a couple for you. So Jimmy, on the free cash flow number, just outstanding, even for a fourth quarter. It looked like there was some negative working capital effects going on in the quarter, particularly with receivables. Do you think that that contributed or was it more amortization? Just love to get your comment there. And then because you also commented as it applies to fiscal '21, what should we be modeling for corporate costs as it applies to the legal spat you guys have with MGM Holdings? I couldn't tell whether you had your legal counsel on or not, if you're willing to chime in on that I would appreciate it. And I have a follow up for Joe. Thank you.
J
Jimmy Barge23:32
Well, first of all, with regards to any legal cost, not going to really comment on that. Likely be a one-time item and obviously not going to speak to that. But with regards to the free cash flow in the quarter, it was a strong quarter, but I'd also point to a strong year. Right, we finished over, right around $350 million of free cash flow for fiscal '20. No particular changes in the modernization program, they were relatively small, and we always have year-end swings in working capital. But we absolutely feel that our reduced working capital needs are sustainable and will continue to benefit us into the future.
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David Miller24:15
Okay, great. And then Joe Drake, if you're on, once these theaters reopen, whether it's late June, early July, whatever the date is, what do you think this thing is going to look like? And I assume you've been in touch with the theaters fairly regularly over the last two or three months. I mean, who's going to show up? Is it going to be Millennials? Is it going to be couples without children? Is it going to be soccer moms from the suburbs that will show up with children? I'm particularly worried about the animated films and/or children's films. Will families take children in a COVID-19 environment? So that's kind of the first part of the question. The second part is, we've heard from some of the theaters that certain old films will be licensed for this late June, early July time period, films from the '80s, '90s, what have you. Maybe they charge $5 just to get people in the door to get revenue in the door. Given your extensive library, are you involved in that at all with the theaters? Thanks so much.
J
Joe Drake25:24
Thank you, David. That's a lot of questions, but I will attempt to cover it. So on the first part, yes, we're in touch with our exhibitor partners literally daily and weekly, working very closely with them. We believe that people are anxious to get out of their house and do things. We're bullish on people coming back to theaters, but we're not naive about the environment we're entering. We're in a fluid situation, and there's a lot of things that have to happen for audiences to feel safe and comfortable in theaters. The exhibitors are doing a great job of preparing for that and making sure safety protocols are in place. I was on with one of the exhibitors this morning, and they're going to extraordinary lengths to make sure it's a great and safe experience. As it relates to audiences, I can tell you how we're handling it. We have dated some films as early as August, as you've probably seen, and September and October. We're very specific about the films we put in there. From our perspective, you have to operate now in a very flexible, agile way, and we've put a lot of plans in place to do that. If you look at the first few films, they're specifically chosen and dated. We think they're great dates for the movies in general, but they're dated also because they target audiences that don't require long lead media spends. They're actually set so that we can get a lot of data before we trigger expenditure and have the ability to move quickly if things aren't opening as aggressively as we hope. So I think the audience is coming back. We've certainly done our share to keep that theater experience at top of mind. I know you're aware of Lionsgate Live, a program we ran in conjunction with our exhibitor partners, YouTube, Fandango, and a whole bunch of partners to keep alive the idea of that theatrical experience. It was a huge success and helped raise money for furloughed workers. On the second part, yes, theaters are going to be playing legacy movies. We have a whole program of those. We're very much a part of that and had put that together with them a couple of months ago to start planning that lineup. It's supposed to get people comfortable going back into theaters, as well as to make sure the protocols are in place and there's a lot of training theater workers. This will provide a soft launch to work out the kinks and create a great experience.
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Brent Weinberg28:40
Thanks. Good afternoon everybody. I have a couple questions, but I just wanted to come back, Joe, on those comments you were just in conversation with David. I thought it was really interesting. How do you decide whether it's ready to release the films that you've dated? You mentioned you've put movies in place that don't require a long lead time for media, give yourself flexibility. Makes a ton of sense. But what are you looking forward to say two weeks out that makes it a go?
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Joe Drake29:22
We're obviously digging as deep into data as we can about consumer habits and what sort of proxies we can use for appetites for coming back to theater. Additionally, you'll notice that currently on the schedule we're about six weeks out from the first big wide release movie, and that will give us an opportunity to see how audiences are reacting leading up to that and on that opening weekend. We'll triangulate all of those data points and anything else we can get our hands on. We're also monitoring as those soft launches happen what kind of capacities and how audiences are showing up to those theaters. We're also running our own tracking studies on our material itself and how it's working and the level of interest. We'll be doing some extra polling to understand audiences' willingness to come back to theater as our movies are starting to track.
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Brent Weinberg30:43
Got it. And then maybe for John, if you step back from all of the volatility and anxiety of the last few months and look at changes to the business, what do you think the long-term implications are for Lionsgate and how it operates? You know, its strategy and how the business runs as a result of this. What have you guys learned that you think will last beyond what we're going through right now?
J
Jon Feltheimer31:08
Yeah, just from the way our employees work, I think we certainly have learned that we can operate in a more modern fashion using technology. I can tell you I've never been busier in my life. I'm too busy. I have about ten conference WebEx's. I have a one-star start every single day that's a crisis group that we have together, and then we communicate with the employees a little during the day. So just from the overall way we operate, looking at how much money we spend on travel, looking at the conferences we go to that we have to be there from an expense perspective. I can tell you we're pulling money out of our business constantly. We're up to over a million and a half dollars a month just run rate on things that we normally would have considered normal expense. In terms of all of our operations, our businesses are number one again in this environment and going forward. I'm super happy to be diversified. Diversified again financially is important from year to year. Sometimes one group outperforms, others might not. But at the end of the day, strategically, the way that our three core businesses operate together, the priority that Stars has for Lionsgate television, the ability to build our business on a global basis, to be able to provide our first-run movies to Stars Play International in the UK and India and some other territories we're looking at including the US, I think that diversification both financially and strategically will put us in a very, very good place. Clearly, having Stars turns out to have been a really smart investment that we made a couple years ago, and in this at-home environment, I think we're going to continue to build that business. It's doing exactly what we hoped it would do. Great partnerships we create every single day with partners that understand the value of it. So that's working out really well. In terms of television, it's going to be interesting. The buyers are all now looking a little different. If you look at NBC right now, I think you have to look at NBC and Peacock together. If you look at who you're looking at Hulu and I think ABC together. So TV is going to have to have some new kinds of deals, new calculus that makes sense for the buyers and for us as we look at the back end value of those businesses, whether we need to take more money up front and give up some of the backend. So I think pretty much every
Business is going to be a little bit different. I think certainly the experiment that we did, Joe and his team did a fantastic job pivoting. I still believe, I mean we were out in the marketplace for three or four days and all the theaters shut down, and we're going to pretty much get back to even on that and not make it a huge hole in our 2020 financials and the rollover in 2021 that we expected. So what we found obviously is there's an at-home audience for movies as well. We still believe entirely in the partnership with exhibition, but we do see that these models could potentially change, and hopefully we can find a smart way to do that with all of the various constituencies. And the last thing I would say is the one thing for sure that this whole thing proves is that library has incredible value, growing value. It's something we've talked about a lot. We call here a creep, which is every time we do an ultimate it goes up in value the next time we do the ultimate. And you've seen spectacular increases in the value of evergreen library content. I believe having so many distribution outlets, having so many, basically the audience is watching more and more content than ever before with a better technology that allows them to view it in a better way. I think overall we're pretty well positioned for this new world, but look, we're watching it every day and we're trying to adapt with it. Thanks for your thoughts.
Thank you. I know the next question will come from... Thank you.
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Brent Weinberg35:52
Just a couple questions. The first one on just, can you provide a bit more color on the reopening of production? I know you talked about it a little bit in your opening comments, but in terms of how you prioritize what gets greenlit again, where do you start? And then do you have flexibility in locations or sound stages to open up before others? Can you kind of pull those levers to get everything in process and going again? And my second question is really just on the Comcast relationship with Starz. How would any comments you give in terms of how the unbundling is going, moving from the bundle to ala carte, how that transition is going? Thank you.
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Jon Feltheimer36:35
Great. On production, I'm going to have Kevin and Joe start, and then Jeff can answer your second question.
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Kevin Beggs36:42
Hi, this is Kevin speaking. Yeah, you're speaking to... Are we stuck in a series and plant their flag somewhere and then stay there for years and years? Happily, our portfolio is pretty regionally spread around with New York, Atlanta, North Carolina, LA, Vancouver right now, and several in the UK. So we're looking closely at the rural states that seem like they're going to open first and have developed plans. Several of those are in common with Starz and Justin, and we're kind of holding hands and working with the local officials and the local film commissions and the various guilds and unions to have a countdown to production, which we see happening in terms of camera work in mid to late August at the earliest, and prepping in late June and July. Pretty excited about the places that we think are opening up and are feeling good about what we can do there.
J
Joe Drake37:40
And on the motion picture side, the team got actually ahead of it before the shutdown in anticipation of this. They did a great job of both hiatus-ing but protecting those productions so they can ramp quickly. Across Lionsgate and Starz together, there's been an incredible collaboration to figure out the protocol so that we can all move quickly back into production. And it's everything from safety protocols that are required on set, and housing, and meals, and everything travel, down to looking for alternative locations so that as things open up, we are in a position to move productions to the places that we can operate safely but quickly. And so we are really well poised as soon as locations open up to get back to it.
J
Jeffrey Hirsch38:30
And in terms of the Comcast transition, just to level set everybody, we transitioned to an ala carte model with Comcast on February 11th at the end of Power but heading into the premiere of Outlander. We work very closely with Comcast almost every day to put plans in place to grow the business. And I'm happy to report that in the first six weeks of the transition, we grew to well over a million subs, both on the traditional platform and on the Flex product, which has been really... we've seen great growth on Flex and we feel really strong about that. That was really pre the in-home stay, and then since then we've seen great engagement on our services. So linear viewership is up 33%, on-demand viewership is up 44%. And so we've continued to see that transition to this revenue share ala carte model grow. Thank you very much.
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David Miller39:24
Maybe first Jimmy, so you said the covenants you don't really foresee any issues. Did you just remind us where you are on that? And if you expect to be free cash flow positive in 2021? Because I expect to... Did you benefit at all in the fourth quarter from just not having any theatrical releases and the P&A related? And I have a quick follow-up on production cost. Thanks.
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Jimmy Barge39:51
Sure. First of all, we would expect to be positive on free cash flow, but we are investing substantially in our ramp up of content as well as the opportunities that Starz Play or national in terms... Of covenants, as you know, they differ significantly in a favorable way from headline leverage, if you will. In particular, they exclude all the Starz Play or national investment losses there. And likewise, in light of COVID-19, as I mentioned in my remarks, we have stress tested these covenants over and over and we don't see significant risk. We still have plenty of room. And to give you an idea where we came in, our first lien ratio came in at 2.2 times under the covenant calculation, which is well below the four and a half times threshold. The interest coverage came in at 3.95 times, which is well exceeding the two and a half times threshold. So we're in good shape there.
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David Miller41:01
Great. And then just on the production side, I think in the release it looked like there was about $50 million in OpEx just related to COVID-19. I've seen a press article that productions could have like a 20% cost increase in order to keep everybody safe on set. So I was wondering maybe if Kevin or Joe could comment on what sort of cost increase or margin pressure might be impacted by when you are ready to reshoot, and if that really starts to change the way that you think about the business in any meaningful way. Thank you.
J
Jimmy Barge41:35
Yeah, look, we've factored into our plan what we think our operations costs are. These are... the $50 million that you referenced, these are direct costs, okay, that's primarily related to the delayed productions, the theatrical release schedules that Joe mentioned, as well as development projects. A large majority of this, as you would expect, is related to theatrical product where development cycles are longer and projects tend to be more material. As you can imagine, we're working on mitigating this cost, everything from production insurance where we have coverage, negotiating contracts, and overall cost containment. So in terms of looking ahead, we expect any remaining costs will be substantially smaller, certainly less than half, that would be weighted to the first half of fiscal 2021, and will be further and meaningfully mitigated through insurance proceeds and cost savings. Maybe Joe and Kevin could speak to the other part of that question in terms of future production cost increases.
J
Joe Drake42:41
So this is Joe. Even on the production cost, it's still a little bit to be figured out, but it is not anywhere near 20%. We have gone very deeply into what is going to be required in some thesis around how you would run a safe production. Frankly, it's a little bit different production to production depending on the movies and locations and the moves and how much talent and crowds and the like. So it's going to vary, but it's nowhere near that level. As well, it's very early days. There are a lot of ideas around how we go about mitigating a lot of those costs. So I think it's going to have an impact, but I don't think it's anywhere in that range. Thank you very much.
O
Operator43:23
Thank you. Our next question will come from Matthew LoSardo.
M
Matthew LoSardo43:31
Hey, good afternoon everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe a couple if I could. First, you talked a little bit about the value of library content earlier. I think you've got Mad Men and Weeds both up for relicensing. Any update there? I would assume that networks are fairly hungry for content. Do those end up on Starz? Do those end up elsewhere? Any thoughts there? Secondly, trials obviously kind of COVID really kicked off late March, so a lot of the impact has been since March. I'm just curious if there's any framework you can give us in terms of what the trial base looked like versus a normal quarter, or where we are right now versus the end of March. Any color there would be helpful. And then thirdly, Jimmy, you talked a little bit about insurance. I'm just curious when you think you'd have line of sight into what that might look like and how material that could be hypothetically. Just any color there would be great. Thanks guys.
J
Jon Feltheimer44:29
All right, Kevin first, and then Jeff.
K
Kevin Beggs44:33
Sure. So on Mad Men, Jim Packer and his team have been in kind of a four-month sales process which has gone really well, exceeded our expectations, and probably benefited from the COVID suspension and the lack of fresh originals coming. So nothing to comment on officially yet, but coming together nicely, and we think we're going to have very good news to report in all those processes. We work closely with Jeff and his team evaluating in a free market fashion what may be good for Starz versus other buyers, and getting the top dollar for our participants and our shareholders. So we'll again have more to say about that when we can announce where it's gone domestically and internationally. Weeds is still another year out, but again, as John alluded to, the value of library continues to go up and up and up. We're encouraged by what we're seeing with Mad Men and looking forward to monetizing Weeds further on its fourth cycle.
J
Jeffrey Hirsch45:38
In terms of trials, we had guided the end of the year to be about 6 million OTT subs domestically. We were well past that number through the first two months of the quarter, and then it accelerated as we got into March. Unlike some of our peers in the industry, we've stayed away from long free trials. We've never really liked 30-day free trials. The data shows that the conversion is lower, the lifetime value is lower. And so we looked at the pandemic and said this is going to be a little more long-dated than just 30 days, and we went out with $5 offers for three months or $25 up front for six months to try to give some economic breaks to people that are in challenging times. What we've seen historically from those two offers that we've used in our normal business is great conversion to full pay, and we expect that to be the same. And Matthew, with regards to your questions with regards to production insurance, it's still early stages, but we absolutely have coverage. We would expect it to be really meaningful, and we'll focus on that. We're already focused on it. Thank you.
O
Operator46:49
Our next question will come from Aaron Gould. Please go ahead.
A
Aaron Gould46:53
I think you've got a few. First, Jimmy, with no production, is it fair to assume revenue is going to be low, but any video or any library product will be coming in at a very high profit margin? You typically lose money on the upfront for your new production. Is that fair to assume?
J
Jimmy Barge47:11
Yes.
A
Aaron Gould47:11
Okay. And the last three years, you've invested about a billion and a half a year in film and TV. Any idea how much you're going to spend this year? That's all a function of when you start up again.
J
Jimmy Barge47:22
Well, I think you know, we're expecting even with the delays that we will be increasing our content spend probably $200 million plus relative to this year going into the year. So we're clearly investing in content and our growth in the future.
A
Aaron Gould47:44
Okay. And the last thing, do you typically have completion bonds on all of your production? I assume completion bonds are different than business disruption insurance. Do they cover pandemics?
J
Jimmy Barge47:58
We do have production bonds, and we plan on finishing all our productions and that not being a factor.
A
Aaron Gould48:04
Okay. Thank you.
O
Operator48:11
Thank you. Our next question will come from... Go ahead.
A
Analyst48:19
Thanks. Can you talk about the... you've had a lot of OTT adds since shelter-in-place started. As you look at the data, particularly from your direct consumer app, is there anything about those cohorts that looks different to you than the cohorts that you'd added before that point? Or are their usage patterns and what they're watching looking pretty similar?
J
Jeffrey Hirsch48:42
Yeah, great question. What we've really seen is actually more new customers coming into franchises. So while we had a record season on Outlander for season five, we continue to have record viewership on the end of Power in the first quarter. We actually saw a large spike in people finding those franchises for the first time. So we saw binging of season one and two of Outlander spike almost 38%, same on Power as well. And so the value of people being stuck at home is they're finding our big shows and they're continuing to reach into the content in a big way. And so we expect that to continue. We expect those customers to stay with us, that they continue to get up to speed on seasons five and six of both of those shows. And so we've seen a lot more customers coming to the franchise than we had before.
A
Analyst49:32
Great. Thank you.
O
Operator49:41
Thank you. Yes, thanks for taking my questions.
B
Brent Weinberg49:44
All right. How are you? Yeah, in a while. Welcome back. Yeah, thanks. Any, given the change, it seems as though eventually theatrical releases may not be theatrical, maybe direct to home, kind of like we're seeing Amazon already doing with a few things. So that, but the premiere cinema you can rent a movie for $20, although it's limited. And I was curious, is there any way that you guys could do that and just take a release to this low-budget, low risk, and save the P&A and release it directly to the consumer at home where they can enjoy it, given we don't know how long it'll be before theaters get back to what they were? And no one's done it yet that way, but I think it'd be kind of cool, and eventually someone will. Is that something you thought about, kind of a direct to home literally where people rent it from Lionsgate and you... for movies?
J
Jon Feltheimer50:36
Sure. They're all kind of models that we look at. One of the things that this company prides itself on is being flexible and agile. We still believe that theatrical is a big driver of our business and are going to continue to play aggressively in that space. And yet, when we see opportunity for direct-to-home, and if there's an opportunity there, I don't think any company's done a better job of exploiting niches and opportunities with audiences, and we'll continue to do that. So it's certainly a possibility in the future.
B
Brent Weinberg51:05
And it just seems like eventually someone will, like that will be the theatrical release and you'll pay a lot of money and watch from your house. And I don't know platform-wise, but we've seen you guys are the perfect ones to try that, and it just kind of makes sense. Second question, given what's happened, when theatrical does open up again, do you plan to spend the same amount in P&A as you were going to before the pandemic? Because you really think that's going to make a difference? It would seem people who want to go to movies are going to go, people that don't aren't. So it would seem you could save a lot of money by cutting back on P&A spend in the future with theatricals just because of this situation, which would really help your cash flow. I mean, does that make sense? Or do you think you still need to spend the same amount as you would have had the COVID environment never happened?
J
Jon Feltheimer51:52
So I think what you'll see... I think you may notice that we delivered a really strong large in this year, and that's a result of a lot of very strategic decisions that were made by a leadership team that is special and hitting on all cylinders. And that was driven a lot by data, data-driven decision-making. We brought data into the equation, and in addition to restructuring the organization and a content strategy that really identifies specific movies for audiences, it continually informed how we geared our spend and will continue to do so. We think that's part of the secret sauce.
B
Brent Weinberg52:30
Yeah, no, I agree. And I know the management team very well, trust me on that one. But the question is more a matter of, do you think you need to spend that much? I think people are going to go to movies as soon as they can, and others it doesn't matter what you spend, they're going to do it. So I think that's an opportunity for you. But I don't know what you think, if it could be something that could really help you or not. That's kind of the angle I was looking at. Does the incremental dollar after a certain amount make a difference like it would have previously? And that's I guess we don't know. And the last question I have is, do you see any opportunity for doing things like American Express just announced that they're giving $20 a month till the end of the year for any streaming services, and you sign up for any of it, they'll credit to your account if you have a gold card, platinum, or Centurion. And I was thinking that fits perfectly with what you guys do. Is there any opportunity for partnering with someone like an Amex, a Visa, MasterCard, where they're basically paying for anyone who signs up for it now till the end of the year to really grow subs and also penetrate and partner with someone solid? It seems you guys could do that with Starz better than HBO or Showtime could, given the independent nature of Starz relative to the other two and their sizes. Is that an opportunity for you?
J
Jeffrey Hirsch53:42
That's a great question. We think it's a really big opportunity for us. We are in talks with Amex, we are in talks with other credit card companies. We are in talks with our billing platform to expand in terms of whether it's prepaid or in-store couponing. We also, as you know, have a program going right now with Redbox. We think some of that consumer base overlaps, we think there's a great partnership there. And we will continue to talk to almost every, whether it's insurance companies that have large subscription bases that we can, or airlines that we have a program with United where we can be in their loyalty program, as ways for consumers in economically challenged times to get our service and enjoy our service. So I think it's a great opportunity, and we continue to lean into those in a big way.
B
Brent Weinberg54:28
Yeah, I'll say, yeah, what I've heard, not to choose myself, but people now are getting frustrated not only because they're home but they're running out of things to watch. It doesn't matter how fast Amazon can put Netflix and throw things up there, they're really running out of things to watch. And a lot of people have never experienced Starz, so we've seen you have a real opportunity there given people have seen just about everything that's out there now.
J
Jeffrey Hirsch54:51
We've had a great benefit of having Outlander on, and then bringing Vida on and Company, and just premiering up High Town. So we've got a lot of fresh content coming on, coupled with the Sony pay-one movies. So Once Upon a Time in Hollywood came on, and Zombieland. We also have 4,000 titles in our library at a very economically set price for the value. So that's part of what we're seeing. And then internationally, I think it's the same kind of point of view, where we've got great Starz originals coupled with best-in-class global SVOD that we're seeing. And so we're also seeing viewership expanding in the international markets. And to the point where the partners are seeing the value of our services, and so we're now getting inbound calls in different countries like UK and Germany to start to bundle our services with other partners to even expand our reach even further right now.
B
Brent Weinberg55:40
That's all right. That's, I would think it makes sense, and it's perchance you guys are perfectly positioned for that. So that's great. Thank you.
O
Operator55:50
And our next question will come from Todd Younger. Please go ahead.
T
Todd Younger55:57
Thank you. Hello everybody. Jeff, hey. So Jeff, if you don't mind, I would love to dig a little bit on the change definition of Starz subscribers. I just want to make sure I understand it correctly. So it looks like latest we have at end of December under your new definition of what counts as a reported Starz domestic subscriber, we lost about 11 million subs, 11 and a half million subs under new definition. We can read that, I think we understand those are the fixed deal bundle subs. We get it. My question is, can you help us understand at all what the direct economic benefit to Starz was from those 11 and a half million subscribers was or is, and how that trails? And then on the other side, since I don't think we can calculate it, can you help us understand what the ARPU is of your now direct linear and OTT subs so we can sort of understand the breakeven there? And then the final, I promise, the last part is, I wonder what data or information you can have about those 11 or so million subs in terms of how much they use the Starz service and your expectations that how many of them, based on that, you expect might come back and actually start paying for it. Thanks.
J
Jeffrey Hirsch57:24
Great question. I think it was actually about 6.8 million subscribers that pivoted off of a bundle, so closer to 6.2 million subscribers that pivoted off a bundle through the change in that deal. As I said earlier, we've now captured back about a million of those subscribers in the first six weeks. But those subscribers were heavily bundled, very low ARPU subscribers. The breakeven is about... I'm not sure about that third. I think the interesting thing that we've seen is as the business transitions from this traditional linear business to the digital side of the world, our customers become more profitable as we transition. And we've captured that base really significantly. By the end of this fiscal year, a little over 70% of our subscriber base will be revenue share ala carte customers, which are a much more profitable customer for us. And as John alluded to in his prepared remarks, our direct-to-consumer app, our retail app where we control our own data and we pay some processing fees, is now our third largest distributor, and that's the most profitable of all the customers because we are closer to the customer there. So as we continue to capture this transition, we become a much more profitable part of the overall company.
T
Todd Younger58:47
He was MVP uses OTT?
J
Jeffrey Hirsch58:49
Yeah, so on the ARPU question, again, if you look in the quarter, you'll continue to see ARPU increase. That again is because of the transition from a traditional world to the digital world. There's a little noise in the quarter because of the Comcast transition, but we will continue to see ARPU increase as we continue to go into that digital side. Our own direct-to-consumer app is over 2 million subs right now, and that does a lot of great things for us. It throws up a ton of data, which is the reason why we were able to do wholesale when we launched it four and a half years ago. And we really have been able to collect a lot of data that makes us much more efficient in acquisition, much more efficient in retention. We've seen churn come down year-over-year by 4% because of the way we're managing the business. We've seen post-Power churn from season 6 to season 5 come down 10%, which is one of our journey or pieces of content. And we've really been able to harness that data to make not only marketing decisions but content decisions going forward as well.
O
Operator59:53
And the next question will come from Jim Groth.
J
Jim Groth1:00:02
Hi. Several questions. First, I'm wondering if the annual slate objective numbers have changed at all in the new environment. Also, regarding some questions that came up a couple of calls ago regarding the theatrical window and direct release, are you threatening your theatrical window access if you are too much one way or another in terms of what ones you'd like to have a theatrical window and when you'd move to a direct-to-video type access? And then lastly, I was wondering about prioritizing programming for Starz versus other considerations, specifically say the Anna Kendrick series. Would you have more likely gone to Starz, or did you think the returns were much better going to HBO Max? Thanks.
J
Jon Feltheimer1:01:08
Jay, so on the theatrical question, obviously as a result of the theater shutdown, our lineup or our slate pushed to the right. And so we will have less films this year, but also as a result of that, have less expenditure this year, and we'll book less expense. And so the impact on the year shouldn't be significant other than revenue will be down, but so will expense. And yet in our planning, as soon as this is over, we plan to gear up. And as I said before, we're still very bullish on the theatrical marketplace and just paying very close attention to how it's going to open up and the data that that gets us. As it relates to the windowing question, we're in contact with our exhibitors every single day. We believe in that business, and we're going to continue to make movies and participate in that business at the absolute highest level. And so nothing's changing there. As you talk about windowing for us, we're obviously going to at the same time, if other opportunities direct-to-consumer open up that could potentially be an extra leg of our business, that is a business that we traditionally looked at as a segment of business. We today are releasing 30 films a year out of that business. That may not be the noise you hear about, but a very consistent, very high margin, very low risk piece of our business that will continue to do great business. We had a record year this year, and we certainly see opportunity to grow it going forward, but not at the expense of our theatrical business or our exhibition partners.
K
Kevin Beggs1:02:54
I can answer that second question. Yeah, I mean basically that was Love Life, which we're obviously super proud of and is coming to HBO Max as part of their launch. We're very excited about it, but it was sold and put into development almost two years ago, so kind of a different era in the Lionsgate-Starz relationship. But we speak constantly with each other about what their needs may be, what we have in the lineup, how we can be helpful, what we can source and find for them. And the timing has to be right and the creative has to be completely in line. I think Jeff is an amazing brand builder, and if it's not right in line with the brand they're building, no matter who it's coming from, it's not going to be something he moves on. So we're always focused on what is the exact right creative fit, and when it's not, we're obviously out in a larger marketplace.
J
Jon Feltheimer1:03:49
What I would add one more thing, which is the fact that Lionsgate Television is so proactive and so prolific in the television business, applying at any one time 20, 30 shows, and that's not even including our Pilgrim shows, that we attract a tremendous amount of talent. And as Kevin has said over and over, his most important buyers, obviously Starz is a critical component of our company. The fact that he has such significant access to talent because we have so many buyers gives Starz the opportunity to see things early, a tremendous amount of things, and then buy the things that are right for their brand, right for their audience. That is an incredibly focused and curated brand.
O
Operator1:04:37
You have time for one more question here, I think. Operator?
Yes, and that one comes from Matt Thornton.
M
Matt Thornton1:04:46
Hey guys, thanks for taking my question. Just one quick follow-up here. Maybe this one's for John. But you guys have talked a little bit in the past about maybe kicking the tires on some type of a capital raise transaction, maybe at the Starz level. But I think the intent there was really to maybe shine a light on valuation as well as help you maybe accelerate deleveraging. Obviously we had the Comcast issue late last year and earlier this year, now we've had the COVID pandemic which is ongoing. But I'm just curious if that's still something that you're thinking about, if there's still opportunity there, or maybe just kind of where your head is around that as we sit here now. Thanks guys.
J
Jon Feltheimer1:05:27
Yeah, yeah, great question. You've kind of answered it because there are two criteria to that raise we've talked about before. One is clearly our emphasis on deleveraging, but the second is unlocking value. And any transaction that we do should do both of those things, and frankly should be with great partners, particularly if they can be strategic partners. We are having a lot of really interesting conversations. I would say COVID, in terms of actually completing any transaction, probably from a timing perspective does push things that we keep saying off to the right. But again, absolutely no urgency. We're throwing off cash, we're funding our own businesses, and we are continuing to look at a transaction or transactions that actually fulfill those three criteria. Thanks.
O
Operator1:06:18
Pat and Amy, I just have one final closing statement here. I just want to refer everyone to our press releases and events tab under the Investor Relations section of our company's website for a discussion of non-GAAP forward-looking measures discussed on this call. Thank you very much. See you next quarter. Thank you.
And that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for using AT&T event services. You may now disconnect.