Anthony Scaramucci: The AI Market Crash Will Be RUTHLESS

It's a really tough one for me because historically people are like, 'Oh, the government's got to stay out of business,' and have to be a line of church and state between our capitalism and governmental intervention. But then when you really understand things, lots of stakes have been taken by the government. Chrysler in the 1980s, late '70s, got bailed out. Lee Iacocca asked for that bailout. General Motors got bailed out in the 2008 crisis. Like, you know, obviously the banks got preferred shares given to the government in exchange for the TARP money. The Federal Reserve actually made money off of that. And of course, you know, I think Intel is owned probably right now at 9.9% by the federal government. So, I am a realist on this stuff. I'm not going to be Mr. doctrinaire purist and say government shouldn't be involved. I guess what I'm worried about is the cronyism. And what I'm worried about of what's going on in the world right now is we have a funnel of people at the top. You know, the tech bro oligarchs gave $25 million to Trump and they made $25 billion. It was a great exchange. You know, Trump's attitude is if you're with me and you're off my back like a Vladimir Putin, I'm going to curry favor for you. And that's the stuff that I'm worried about. I'm worried about the $1.4 billion made in 18 months, the 927-page financial disclosure with all of the embedded corruption in there and several violations of the Stock Act. But if you said to me, they're going to get a special sweetheart deal versus Anthropic and some other competitors having the government own them, I'd be very worried. If you said to me that the government's going to own them and help oversee some of the treachery related with AI and there was a referee and a check and balance, I would be less worried. But the government right now, at least at the federal level, is being run by a committee of one, which on our 250th anniversary of America is probably the worst thing and probably the most un-American thing that I've seen in my lifetime. We usually had the country run by a consensus and a check and balance system and a separation of powers and that sort of thing. So, I'm not in love with it, but I'm not against it. I think we have to recognize the Chinese have pumped their private sector economy with the help of their federal government.

Well, I don't think it's had much of an impact. I think that the market is ruthless and the market is opportunistic and the market sees in a case like Anthropic and OpenAI, it sees the heavy spend and it sees the near-term losses, but it sees the long-term very bright, very rosy outlook. The AI companies remind me of Amazon. And so, I'll just take you back to the early stages of Amazon. Jeff Bezos came out there said, 'Hey, for a decade, I'm going to lose money. Every year, I'm going to print a loss of money. I'm going to be borrowing. I'm going to be taking in bonds to buy real estate, infrastructure, trucks, warehouses. And by the way, I'm going to print a loss every year. And then if you're with me, lo and behold, I'm going to turn the switch on and I'm going to print money.' And a lot of people were with him. You know, I remember Bill Miller, who's a legendary value investor, bought a big piece of Amazon and said this guy gets it. Eventually, he's going to control internet retail. Amazon's got 56% of the marketplace, 5% of overall retail in the United States, 56% of the internet retail marketplace. And this is AI. So, AI is a money loser right now, but it's going to be a long-term money winner. I can't tell you how big the bubble's going to get or how deep the bubble is going to be. I don't know, but I'm a big investor. I'm expecting a 25% to 35% correction at some point. Big deal. Stay in the stuff. It's a lot like Bitcoin. Bitcoin corrected 50%. That's a yawn for me. Let me just open my mouth. See that? If you're listening, I'm yawning. Okay, big deal. If you're going to be in this business, strap on a set and get ready for the volatility. The retail investor and the sentiment against AI is job security related. And I'm going to take the position on even that that's overblown because if AI does everything that we expect, we're going to move to a three or four-day work week in our lifetimes. And there's going to be a lot more recreation. And then there's going to be value placed on human interaction. And people are going to migrate into jobs that have human interface and human interaction. And maybe some of those jobs will be recreational. But I think that this apocalyptic dance is the wrong dance. We've done this before. We said we were running out of oil. Never ran out of oil. Tom Malthus in the 1840s said we're going to starve ourselves due to population growth. We got big and fat due to food technology. I don't buy the AI drama. But I do love listening to the booze at these commencement speeches when these geniuses bring up AI.

Yeah, I mean I don't know the answer. We probably are in a bubble. We'll know the answer. You know how bubbles work. We'll know the answer after the bubble bursts. If you asked me in February of 2000, 26 short years ago, are we in a Nasdaq tech web one bubble? I was like, yeah, maybe. I don't know. And then a month later, baboom, we went down 40, 50, and eventually 60%, and it turned out we were in a big bubble. And what do we know about bubbles? When the bubble bursts, it is absolutely ruthless. And it's punishing. And so you have to invest wisely on a distribution setting. You have to invest wisely thinking about a diversification of your portfolio. And momentum drives people crazy. They get FOMO from the momentum. And I would just tell you to relax on that. Just bet the long-term trend. And bet the wheel, like me. I have a number of different bets on the wheel so that you don't get hurt no matter what happens.

Is this AI specific or general market or this includes crypto?

Look, I would have probably 30% in Bitcoin. I would probably have a basket of some of these AI companies that I could own. You know, I'm an owner of Astea Labs, which is publicly traded. It's hard to get into these companies that are not publicly traded. I am a SpaceX investor. People think it's overvalued. I think that's short-term nonsense. I wouldn't read the noise on SpaceX. I own it. I would always own a slug of the S&P. If you notice, the Mag 7 has run, but the other 493 are doing well this year. And I would own some real estate in my portfolio and some gold. And I would sit tight, and I would bet the long-term of the United States. You have to think like Buffett. United States not going anywhere, resilient country. We have our ups and downs. We have bad things that happen to us in the United States, and we do inflict some self-harm. But it's the deepest, most liquid capital market in the world. I don't know your family, Phil Rosen, but I know they're probably nuts. Because my family is nuts. And most of the families that arrived here from other places in the world are nuts. And what I mean by that is definitionally, we're all risk-takers. And we're all willing to swing for the fences. And what happens when you swing for the fences, you strike out a few times. And this is a culture that accepts people getting their ass kicked. And when you have a culture like that, it's a very neurally flexible, neurally plastic culture. I wouldn't bet against the people that live here in the United States.

Am I right about your family, Rosen? They're a little crazy, right?

Yeah, of course. Join the club. I mean, by the way, it's misery loves company, Phil Rosen.

You mean this is the Scott Galloway narrative where you end subscriptions? What do you mean by sell America?

Okay, tell me more.

He's an exhausting human being and he'll burn most of us out. But one thing that Trump is right about is there's a callous indifference and a callous cynicism to what he is doing. But I think the Americans will have had enough of him. Even the people that are supporters of his will look at that and say, 'Wow, that's really not fair. That's a corrupt system.' He's creating a two-rules system where he can pilfer money for himself and his family, but then the nurse that's working at the local hospital, if she's tight on money and has to take some money out of her 401K, she gets hit with a $50 service charge. Or if she misses a tax payment, they audit her. The president gave himself audit immunity, which is a ridiculous thing in a country like ours. We should be a rules-based society and everybody should be subordinate to the law. So when you hear this stuff, on the margin, there is a sell America sentiment. I get that. I would ask people to see through that, basically, and try to ignore that.

You know, first of all, that whole thing is revolting. I don't know anybody that's all Trump should be ripping on. I mean, you had $700 million of losses while he was making $630 million on his meme coin. You probably have a lot of Trump supporters on this call that are listening to your podcast, but guys, get over it, man. That's just disgusting behavior. And then you'll say, 'Oh, well, Hunter Biden did it.' That's the whataboutism. You know what? Hunter Biden is also a loser, but Trump took it to the nth degree. I understand that there's levels of corruption in Washington, but this is ridiculous. Anybody that wants to apologize for Trump or give him an alibi on this, you're part of a cult. So try to get yourself deprogrammed out of a cult. That would be my message to these people. And the other thing that he's done, when you're growing up like I did in the '70s and the '80s, you had belief. I was alive at the bicentennial. I went into New York Harbor and saw the sailboats with my dad. And you had a belief in the country. And I'm sure there was corruption in Washington and Richard Nixon just got kicked out of the White House, and all those different things happened. But it wasn't this. When you get corruption like this, you make people think that there is a concrete ceiling over their heads. That there's a two-tiered system and a concrete ceiling over their heads and them and their families are never going to get ahead. And I find that revolting.

Yeah.

[snorts] Well, he hurt the crypto space more than people want to admit because these meme coins soured people. He also slowed down the regulation. Because if he wasn't doing this sort of corrupt nonsense, his adversaries, who were moving from crypto negative to crypto neutral, would have probably voted in the Clarity Act. We may still get it done, but I think it's very unlikely given the stuff that's going on and given the level of corruption. Because what happens is when you're that corrupt, people get pissed off and they're like, 'Hey man, I'm not voting for anything that this guy's supporting.' So he's hurt crypto in a lot of ways. Second point that I'll make is that you're in a four-year cycle. People can think otherwise, but Bitcoin's only 17 years old. There's been four four-year cycles. Every time you get to the halfway point in the halving, this thing drops about 40 to 50%. It has to do with the economics around the mining and it has to do with the pressure that the miners have to immediately sell their crypto into the market to stay in existence. Put differently, it probably costs about $78,000 to $80,000 of electricity to make one Bitcoin, and you're able to buy Bitcoin in the open marketplace right now at $61,000. So this puts enormous pressure on miners. Some of the miners have turned their rigs off and they switch them over to AI compute and AI data centers, and that will make the hash rate a lot easier and Bitcoin will make its difficulty adjustment and start doing well again. But this is all cyclical. So either I'm long Bitcoin and I'm willing and committed to at least two or three four-year cycles. And if you're committed to that and you step back, it's the best performing asset in the history of the world. If you're not committed to that, you pick any low point and you can say this asset sucks. But Tom Lee said to me something last week on a podcast that people should really listen to: if you're out of the Bitcoin market, 10 of the best days, you got no return. So you have to stay in and you have to be fully invested and you have to ignore the noise if you believe that this is an operating layer for the future of money, which I do, and if you believe that this is a digital store of value because it checks off all the technical components that we've all looked at throughout history to make something a store of value, which I do, then you got to sit in Bitcoin and you got to hold it. And if it trades to half of the market capitalization of gold, it'll be one of the best investments of your lifetime.

I think the question is what would make me negative on it, right? Because I'm trying to look at the bear case. So if you told me that the quantum threat was real, which I don't believe it is, I'd say that's an issue. If you told me that Satoshi sprung to life, he was going to dump a million coins on the marketplace tonight, I'd say that's going to be an issue. If you said to me that we were going to shut off the electricity in the world, and there'd be no more electricity on planet Earth, I'd say that's how you say Bitcoin's finished. There are scenarios where that could happen. I'm not saying that there isn't, but I'm a betting person. I think we understand the quantum thing pretty well, and I think we have an opportunity to create quantum resistance for Bitcoin and for the wallets, even the gray wallets, the ones that are dormant, like the Satoshi wallet. I think we're going to figure that one out as well. So I don't have the bear case in my head, but I will say this to you, Phil: I have been humbled by my life. I have been humbled by markets. And I could be wrong about Bitcoin. And I always caution people, I say, 'Listen, this is what I think. A high conviction name for me, it's a high conviction idea over 40 years of my investment career, but I have been wrong. And I have been wrong more than once. And when I'm wrong, unfortunately, I'm wrong in a colossal way.' So I would just tell you that. I would just say, 'Listen, size yourself appropriately. Sounds like you are, because you're a prudent investor.' But I believe in this long-term and I want my clients to get the exposure.

Well, I would have super high conviction in the private credit and the mortgage-backed space. I got the daylights beaten out of me in March of 2020. I had the worst year of my career, Phil, in a 2-week period during COVID, March of 2020. I didn't know what hit us. I think we were down 25% in minutes. And I looked at that and I said, 'Hm, this is not right. This is not working.' And I shifted a lot of assets away from it. And I had to accept that. And so again, that could happen in Bitcoin. I'm certainly not there yet. I have high conviction. I'm willing also to accept the volatility with Bitcoin. But here's something I would say: I was right about the private credit. Look at what's going on in private credit right now. Look at all the redemptions going on in private credit. Look at the dislocation. We don't get things right all the time. But I think you have to be neurally plastic. I think you have to look at the world and say, 'Okay, I'm probably wrong this morning. I'm in cash. Here's a white piece of paper. Given everything I know about the world, what would my asset allocation look like today?' And that's when you force yourself out of some of your heartfelt beliefs. Remember, we got a brain that gets anchored to emotion. And so I always look at Bitcoin and say, 'Am I overly anchored to my emotion? Am I?' And if I am, then I got to get cautious. I probably have to lighten up. If I'm not, then I want to own more. I heard Saylor talking the other day at an event. Combination of him, Tom Lee, this guy Jordy Visher was talking to Mike Pompliano. I was like, 'Hmm, I don't own enough Bitcoin.' Then I looked at my balance sheet. I said, 'My wife's going to kill me. I better stay right where I am.' So that's where I am right now on Bitcoin.

Well, you're measured in our business by quarters. You're measured in this business by your year-to-date performance. So my year-to-date performance because Bitcoin's down 50% hasn't been great. And so, obviously definitionally I'm wrong, but I'm measuring this over multiple year units of time. So I guess what I would say to people is change your time horizon. And I think you'll be well served from doing that. Remember, Elon Musk is the king of all wealth, no question. He built two colossal companies. He deserves all of his riches. I think he had a swing of Warren Buffett's net worth in like the first couple of days trading on the IPO. God bless him. But the king of all investing to me is Warren Buffett. And what did he do? He bet a generational trend in America for growth and opportunity and innovation. And he looked around. He said, 'If I just manage this compound table appropriately, I'm going to do very well.' And that's something he has done. And that's something I appreciate. And I try to adhere to that to the best of my capability.

Well, I mean, listen, nepotism lives. So if your parents know people, that's number one. Number two, think about what Ben Franklin once said: 'If you want a friend, ask them for a favor.' Don't be bashful. Call people, email them. 'Can I come see you?' If you don't have a job, do you know five people I can meet with that might have a job? If they don't have jobs, do you think those five people could introduce me to 10 people that may have a job? You got to knock on the door. You got to be one part woodpecker where you got to get on somebody's brain and you got to peck at them until the skull cracks open. And then you got to be one part parakeet where you're saying the same thing over and over again with great diligence and great enthusiasm. Those are the things that I'm telling people to do. And by the way, you can smell on somebody who's hungry. You can smell on somebody that's passionate. And people like me always like to hire people like that.

Happy Fourth. Thank you.