Squawk Pod: Ceasefire, oil tankers, & jet fuel prices with Delta CEO - 04/08/26 | Audio Only

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Hi, I'm CNBC producer Katie Kramer. Today on Squawk Pod, a truce sort of markets rallying after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. CNBC reporter Dan Murphy in the Middle East.

A down to the wire tactical victory, but ultimately one that resolves none of the issues.

And oil prices plunging. Iran says it will allow ships to pass through the critical Strait of Hormuz. Our Brian Sullivan on the global energy market.

Watch that MarineTraffic.com chart. When we start to see a lot of ships go through there every day, 20 to 30 tankers a day, Andrew, is the number you want. Things could change. We're one social media post away from right going the other way.

From the other way.

Plus, Delta Airlines scaling back growth plans on volatile fuel prices. But CEO Ed Bastian tells us he is bullish about air travel.

All that today and more. It is Wednesday, April 8th, 2026. SquawkPod begins right now.

Stand back by in three, two, one, queue, please.

Good morning everybody. Welcome to Squawkbox right here on CNBC. We are live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. I'm Becky Quick along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin. And we could talk about where things stand right now. And then energy prices which yesterday we saw WTI above $117. Those prices have collapsed this morning down $18 and change, a decline of more than 16% for WTI which is now trading at $94.57 a barrel. Brent crude down 13%. Let's get straight to the Middle East right now. Dan Murphy is in Abu Dhabi for the latest developments following what is some remarkable news that is moving the markets in a very big way this morning. A two-week ceasefire in the Iran war. Dan?

Andrew, good morning. I think remarkable is the right word. Global markets have rallied. Oil just saw its biggest one-day reversal in six years. And this move has also been welcomed by leaders across the Gulf, from here in Abu Dhabi to Riyadh and in Doha and of course in the wider Arab world as well, from Egypt to Turkey and beyond. There is a sense of real relief that we are back from the brink. But this morning experts that I've spoken to are also sounding a note of caution, and it's pretty clear the negotiations that are set to begin on Friday in Islamabad will not be easy. President Trump says this two-week pause is contingent on the complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran wants to assert control over the strait still, potentially including transit tolls on certain vessels. That is a non-starter for the Gulf States and of course an issue that was not included in Trump's ceasefire post. Meanwhile, as well, Israel says the deal doesn't cover Lebanon, which contradicts Pakistan's prime minister who said it does. And of course, Iran's 10-point proposal also reads somewhat like a wish list here. It asks the US to accept its uranium enrichment program and the lifting of all sanctions. This is something the president has already said that he will not accept. So the gap between the two sides remains wide, and this coming weekend is really going to be crucial in determining whether the market can actually call this an end point or if it is just a first step towards further de-escalation. What is clear though is that the president's escalatory rhetoric, including the threat to wipe out Iranian civilization, ultimately provided the pressure that brought Iran to the table and delivering the off-ramp Washington had been seeking for several weeks. In fact, the New York Times this morning called it a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, but ultimately one that resolves none of the issues that led to the war. Andrew.

Dan, I think the big question is what you think happens at the end of the next two weeks. You know, it depends. In some ways you hope that this is the end. In some ways, I don't know if you think that's what the market is effectively saying or whether you think, if you're in the Ray Dalio camp, whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz is the winner of this whole thing.

Well, that's the big question mark, isn't it? We are seeing a huge relief reversal in oil prices. Of course, equity markets from Asia to Europe have been popping off the back of this, including equity markets in the Middle East as well. This rarely happens, these type of percentage gains that we're seeing in this region off the back of this news flow. But Andrew, I think you're exactly right. The question is, who is going to control the Strait of Hormuz moving forward? And what type of Iran is the United States and the Gulf States ultimately going to be dealing with in the future? Iran's government is still in place. The IRGC is still in place. The nuclear stockpile, including this 970 pounds of near bomb-grade material, which was the stated reason for this war, is still in place. And of course, what we've also seen over the last couple of weeks is Iran absorbing thousands of strikes that it was able to fight back for. And of course, Iran has also shut down oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. It hit Dubai. It launched attacks on American infrastructure and now it's sitting down to negotiate with the president. So, look, exactly what the war has achieved, I think, is ultimately a question mark as well. And for President Trump, the pressure is real, too. In the last 12 hours, we've seen his own political base having voices coming forward accusing him and the vice president of dragging America into exactly the kind of Middle East war that they promised to avoid. So look, all eyes are going to be on this delegation that is preparing to meet in Islamabad on Friday. Trump is facing a couple of key tests now. Of course, taking a victory lap for putting the conditions in place to create this ceasefire, but of course he is going to need to reach a deal that will be the first step and then the second is to ultimately convince Americans and the world that all of this was worth it.

A 15-point plan that the United States has put forward and the 10-point demands that Iran has put forward. If you do a Venn diagram, I'm not sure anything crosses. So I don't know what happens there. But I don't want to look at this in too much of a half-empty cup at all because we have a name. We know who Sharif is talking to. We know that it's real. There was finally a response from Iran other than there are no negotiations going on. And all the hubris and the tough talk, that's all we were getting. And it was right there in plain English. They even referred to Trump as pus and said we will reopen the strait. What do you know about not everybody not that there will still be certain restrictions in the strait? I read that the United States might still have issues or certain countries in the west and there's a $2 million toll now. What can you tell us about that, Dan?

Well, this is going to be interesting to watch as well, Joe, because the president has also gone from using expletives to call on allies to open up the strait and call on Iran to allow the safe passage of ships to also now saying on Truth Social in the last couple of hours that the US is going to be hanging around to make sure that everything is okay. The question of who controls the strait is absolutely critical moving forward. Of course, the Gulf States, for example, have said that they would like to see something that goes beyond just a simple ceasefire here. They want actual security guarantees. Of course, the US has hinted in the past that we could see naval escorts through the strait. That appears to have gone out the window, at least for now. And of course, Iran still commanding some sense of control over the strait as well. We've spoken a lot over the last couple of weeks about the Iran toll booth and this idea that we could see the Iranians actually charging ships to move through. Again, that's likely to be a non-starter for this president and certainly a non-starter for the Gulf States as well. So, this issue of the security inside the strait is absolutely key and what type of conditions are going to be required in order to enable those ships to continue to pass is probably the biggest question mark at this point. Iran insists that it will have control. Exactly how much and what it looks like I think is one of the biggest unknown unknowns at this point.

Dan, one of those 10 points though not only was to maintain sovereign control over the strait, another was to be able to continue to refine uranium. I mean, it just seems like there are so many non-starters in that. Is this just a list of crazy demands that maybe make a negotiation complicated but maybe try and get anchoring techniques for both sides?

Yeah. Becky, I like your description before about a Venn diagram here because if you were to overlap these points, there's no real crossover. Right. And I get the sense what has happened here is that both sides have put forward a wish list and that wish list is now going to be whittled down and negotiated over the weekend. So two weeks of peace in the region, let's call it that. Two weeks of a truce ideally positioning both sides now to come forward with a deal. But again, what this looks like remains to be seen. And of course the risk is that we could see fighting resume. In fact, across the UAE and the wider Gulf States today, we've already seen reports of missiles and drones being lobbed towards the likes of the UAE and Saudi Arabia, for example. So, Iran is still demonstrating a capability to fire back if necessary. And to quote senior Iranian officials as well, in the aftermath of the first Trump Truth Social post that said that we'll be reaching this ceasefire, the Iranians are still saying they have their hand on the trigger. So, this conflict is still hot. The pause is temporary at best, and all eyes are going to be on exactly what this deal looks like, if we're able to even call it that by the weekend and into next week.

Two questions. One is obviously there's a stated ceasefire. You're suggesting there's not a ceasefire, that there are still missiles in the air right now.

Not right now. We haven't received emergency alerts in the past couple of hours, but in the immediate aftermath of that post, I did receive an emergency alert on my phone here in the UAE.

And then Dan, the other question just broadly on the ground is the sentiment that this is a two-week reprieve and that this is not over. I mean, look, if you were looking at the markets today, you would think that this is over. I mean, at the levels that they're at, unless you think that you'd see WTI down at I don't know. I mean, the president would tell you it'd be down to $67, which is where this was before. So, the question is what is the feeling there about what ultimately happens? I know people last night who were saying, you know, they were going to basically take profits today and short everything because they thought we'd be back in the soup in two weeks. And then I know other people who think that this is directionally in the right way and that it won't get back to the end of civilization in two weeks.

It's a really good point. The mood on the ground here is one of relief and I think it's a temporary relief. There is a great awareness that this conflict may not be over. And again to echo what the Gulf states have also been saying, some of these Gulf leaders suggesting that the US was indeed pulling out too soon, leaving the Iranian threat capability intact. And I think that's one of the great fears in the region right now. It's that even if we did see the immediate conflict cooling off, this region is still going to be having to navigate what is a very uncertain new Iran as well. Of course, the whereabouts of the Supreme Leader still unknown at this point. And of course, if he does indeed come back, then this is something that the Gulf states will also have to be dealing with into the future. We've spoken about regime change inside Iran. The question is regime change to what? Whether or not we will see the Iranians maybe even cooling off on their own side is a big unknown too. And you just get the sense that regional security has been upended by the last 40 days of war. And perhaps the region is not necessarily better off, not necessarily safer off as a result of what has unfolded here. And of course, lots of questions about what type of threat Iran is going to pose in the future and who's going to be dealing with that threat.

All right, Dan, thank you. Appreciate it. We'll talk to you soon.

It is rich. The saw a lot of 'Oh my god, he's going to nuke Iran. It's time for the 25th Amendment.' And then this happened and the same people said 'Taco didn't have the cojones to follow through.' Same old same old, same people.

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You hear this and I think it'd be hard to be a company that hears this and doesn't want to sign up to have it check out their models.

Oh, I mean this is why I think Anthropic right now in the enterprise space is just totally so laser focused and people want access to that platform. I mean, if you don't take advantage of this, have it check out because in one case, I think you mentioned it, they found that 27-year-old software flaw. If you don't do it, you're just waiting. It's a time bomb. Like it just when I hear this, all I can think of is, oh my gosh, if I'm a corporation, I better have this thing check out my models.

And if you're a hacker, I think you're thinking, I want to get access to this model.

Coming up on SquawkPod, CEO of Delta, Ed Bastian with our own Phil LeBeau from the Delta Flight Museum in Atlanta. How fuel prices amid a war might affect flight paths and your own travel plans.

Welcome back. This is Squawk Pod.

You're watching Squawkbox right here on CNBC. It's a big morning. I'm Andrew Ross Sorkin along with Joe Kernan and Becky Quick. We have some news just out. President Trump just posting on Truth Social the following. The United States, he says, will closely work with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive regime change. There will be no enrichment of uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried B2 bombers, nuclear dust. It is now and has been under very exacting satellite surveillance. Space Force, he says with an exclamation point, nothing has been touched from the date of attack. We are and will be talking tariff and sanctions relief with Iran. Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. So, it appears that that would be a remarkable amount of progress if true.

I wonder how much we do. We don't know what we know about where everything, you know, where the 900 pounds is and what's left. But I have a couple of questions. There's the question about regime change. He says that regime change. Remember it was two weeks ago when I spoke to him, he called it there's already been regime change.

Okay. So this is not new regime change. He's just dealing with the civilian government head. This access to the uranium that is buried deep. He's arguing that we're going to be with Iran, with Iran that we're going to be able to go and get it.

That would be something.

That would be something. And that's pretty good carrot because their economy, long before this, the people were suffering mightily and sanctions and tariff relief.

And then the big question unresolved is the strait.

Right. That is the biggie.

I think the other question is who we are negotiating with and is the Iranian, the IRGC, the Republican Guard on board with this? There had been some question.

The guy's name is, I mean he was on the post. Yes, he was on the post. Yes, he was. Yeah. The exact individual. Does he speak for you? But this is an incredible outcome. This would be an incredible outcome if this is the point they've already reached on some of these issues.

See, we're 1300 points now. Yeah. The NASDAQ continuing to build. It's now up almost 860 points. The Dow up 190 points, too. So, that's a three and a half percent gain for the Nasdaq at this point. 2.8% for both the S&P and the Dow futures. And again, that's happening as oil prices crash. He didn't mention the strait, but obviously oil prices I couldn't believe it was mentioned in the tweet. I don't know, whatever we got from Iran yesterday, they said, 'We're opening the strait.' I couldn't believe that.

Yeah.

Because everybody at the time said, 'Well, you know, we don't believe what Trump is saying.' But then it came directly from Iran.

Yeah.

I hope they weren't hacked.

Delta Airlines just reporting quarterly results. Phil LeBeau joins us right now with the company CEO, Ed Bastian. Phil, Ed, good morning.

Let's talk about the first quarter. You beat on the top and the bottom line, but give us a picture of what you are seeing right now when it comes to the market overall.

But having said that, Ed, I fly a lot and a lot of people in the last two weeks have said, I've seen the higher airfares across the board in the industry. I'm not crazy about the idea of a summer trip. Are you noticing any erosion at all in demand?