Aliko Dangote’s $46B Warning to Africa: Industrialize or Remain Left Behind!

Thank you very much. Permanent secretary, friends, I mean ministry of finance. I think I'm really, really delighted that I'm talking to an African audience. And before I go on to reading of my speech, today we have what you call Dangote Vision 2030. Vision 2030 is in the next four years we have $46 billion to invest across Africa, which we are doing quite a lot. We started going to other countries. By the grace of God, this year either September or October, we are going to launch another 700,000 barrels per day refinery in East Africa in Lamu. So let me go on to reading my speech first.

Your excellencies, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, good morning. I'm highly honored to be invited by his excellency, the president of the Republic of the Gambia, to participate at this distinguished gathering of African policy makers and development partners. Distinguished guests, permit me to begin with a proposition that may sound obvious yet remains insufficiently internalized in our development discourse. No country in modern economic history has achieved a high income status without industrialization. Not one. Every economy that has escaped poverty at scale, whether Britain, Germany, the United States, Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam, or more recently Bangladesh, did so through a deliberate process of industrial transformation. Industrialization has historically been the bridge between abundance of natural resources and abundance of prosperity. It converts labor into productive employment. It transforms commodities into value added products. It deepens domestic capital formation. It broadens the tax base. It fosters innovation, and ultimately it creates a middle class that underpins social stability and political resilience. Africa accounts for almost about 18% of the world's population, possesses approximately 30% of the global mineral reserves, nearly 60% of uncultivated arable land, substantial hydrocarbon resources, and a youthful labor force projected to exceed 1 billion people by 2050. 2050, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, it's only 24 years from now. So it's not a really long time when you say 2050. People really think it will never come. No, it's just 24 years from now. However, Africa remains the least industrialized region of the world despite possessing nearly every ingredient necessary for industrial success. Moreover, our contribution to global manufacturing value added remains below 2%. Manufacturing contributes barely 10 to 11% of Africa's GDP compared with over 25% in East Asia. Africa's share of global merchandise exports has actually stagnated around 3%. And more than 70% of our exports remain primary commodities and raw materials. The continent loses about $40 to $50 billion annually by exporting raw commodities that are processed elsewhere, you know, before being sold back to African consumers at very, very exorbitant higher prices. These statistics have actually been our signpost for decades. It explains why many African economies continue to experience cycles of growth without structural transformation. Growth driven solely from commodities can raise incomes temporarily, but industrialization creates wealth permanently. It is therefore my conviction that industrialization should not be viewed as one component of Africa's development strategy. It should be recognized as the central organizing framework around which macroeconomic policies, trade arrangements, infrastructure investment, educational systems, and financial markets are aligned. Industrialization matters more today than ever before. The global economy is entering a period characterized by fragmentation, heightened geopolitical tensions, increasing competition for productive capacity. Global supply chains are being redesigned. Countries are seeking resilience and regional diversification, and the energy transition is creating unprecedented demand for critical minerals. Food security concerns are altering agricultural trade patterns, and digital technologies are reshaping manufacturing processes. These developments are creating a new risk for Africa, but also perhaps the greatest industrial opportunity the continent has ever seen in half a century. Africa's population is projected to be about 2.5 billion people by 2050, representing one quarter of humanity. By then, Africa will have the largest workforce in the world. If this labor force remains largely informal and underemployed, demographic expansion could become a source of instability. However, if absorbed into manufacturing, agro-processing, logistics, mining beneficiation, and industrial services, it could become the most powerful engine of global growth. The choice before us is therefore not whether Africa industrializes, but whether Africa industrializes deliberately and collectively or remains a supplier of raw materials in a rapidly changing world economy.

Industrialization is perhaps the most effective anti-poverty program ever invented, as manufacturing jobs typically exhibit productivity levels three to five times higher than traditional agriculture. Studies suggest that every manufacturing job creates between five to six additional jobs in supporting sectors including transportation, construction, finance, retail, and professional services. Africa needs approximately 20 million new jobs annually merely to accommodate the new entrants into the labor market. Public employment cannot provide these opportunities. Neither would agriculture alone provide them or even extractive industries. Only industrialization possesses the scale, productivity, and multiplier effects required to absorb Africa's expanding workforce. And I've seen it as a Nigerian. I was actually telling the honorable minister of foreign affairs that, you know, we need to create jobs. The growth of population in Africa is a lot. I mean in my own country in Nigeria, most people don't have an idea that every year we have 8.7 million babies. So you can see that we need to provide a lot for our future generations. The experiences of East Asia remain instructive. Between 1965 and 1990, manufacturing employment in the Republic of South Korea increased nearly fivefold. China's industrial expansion lifted more than 800 million out of poverty over four decades. Vietnam increased manufacturing exports from approximately $5 billion in 2000 to more than $300 billion today. As a matter of fact, in the year 2000, it was the year that I first visited Vietnam. I had the opportunity to go with my president, President Obasanjo, and I can tell you for nothing, when we went there I couldn't sleep that night because mosquitoes were busy harassing me. But you can see how they have transformed. So nothing is impossible. We should not look at ourselves as if we cannot make it. We can. So these transformations were not accidental. They resulted from deliberate industrial policies, export orientation, infrastructural investment, and integration into larger regional and global markets. National industrialization strategies alone are insufficient. Industrialization requires scale. Scale requires markets, and markets require integration. No African country by itself possesses sufficient market size to support efficient production across a broad range of industries. The combined GDP of all countries in West Africa alone is smaller than that of several individual emerging economies. More than 20 African countries have populations below 20 million people, and small fragmented markets discourage investments. They increase production costs, limit specialization, and reduce competitiveness. Africa currently trades more with Europe, Asia, and North America than with itself, which I think is a pity. Africa's intra-trade remains around 14 to 17% of total trade compared to approximately 70% in Europe and nearly 60% in Asia. This is perhaps the greatest paradox of African development. We speak frequently about Africa's unity, yet our economies remain separated by tariff barriers, inconsistent regulations, inadequate transportation networks, and cumbersome border procedures. These are things that we really need to look at because today I keep telling people it costs me more money to take goods to Ghana from Nigeria, which is a day and a half journey, than bringing goods from Spain. So we can see what is happening is that there are a lot of different sets of mafia that actually cornered a lot of these areas just to stop the growth of Africa. We need to be careful. Industrialization without integration risks creating isolated industrial enclaves, and integration without industrialization risks merely expanding markets for imported products. Africa requires both industrialization and integration must proceed simultaneously. The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area, AFCFTA, represents one of the most consequential economic initiatives undertaken since independence. With a combined GDP exceeding $3.5 trillion and a population of approximately 1.5 billion people, AFCFTA has the potential to become the world's largest free trade area. Studies suggest that effective implementation could increase intra-African exports by more than 80% by 2035. We are talking about maybe in nine years' time. The World Bank estimates that AFCFTA could raise real incomes by approximately 7%, lifting nearly 50 million Africans out of extreme poverty. But these benefits will not materialize automatically. Trade agreements do not create industries. Industries create trade. If African countries continue producing largely unprocessed commodities, AFCFTA may simply facilitate the movement of imported goods through different ports and corridors. The objective must therefore be to utilize AFCFTA as an industrialization platform. Regional value chains should be developed around sectors where Africa possesses clear comparative advantage. This includes agriculture and food processing, pharmaceuticals, fertilizers, textiles and garments, steel and metals, automotive components, cement and construction materials, battery minerals, and clean energy technologies.

Africa is already producing examples that demonstrate what industrialization can achieve. The Dangote Group itself offers one illustration. From a trading company established several decades ago, it has evolved into Africa's largest industrial conglomerate. Its investments span cement, fertilizers, petrochemicals, sugar, seasoning, salt, agriculture, and energy. In Dangote alone, we actually run 18,000 trucks, and this is just to move 60% of our own goods. The refinery and petrochemical complex in Lekki, which is Lagos, represents one of the largest single industrial investments ever undertaken on the African continent at a cost of $20 billion. Its significance extends beyond refining of crude. It demonstrates that African capital, African entrepreneurship, and African engineering capabilities can execute global projects at a globally competitive scale. And let me also explain to you: the EPC contractor to this huge complex is not a foreign company. It is Dangote Industries ourselves that built it from scratch to the end. So this has actually shown that yes, we Africans can do whatever any human being can do, because they don't have two heads. They have only one head like us, and most of them we did. So when you look at it, entrepreneurship we need to encourage everybody that we should be investing in our continent. If we don't invest in our continent, nobody can come and actually help us to establish a sustainable growth or industrialization in Africa. So Africans must lead no matter what. The refinery has the potential to save billions of dollars previously spent importing refined petroleum products, estimated at 40% of total foreign exchange inflows, strengthen regional energy security, and support downstream manufacturing with a projected total of 1.4 million barrels per day capacity by 2029 first quarter. Similarly, the fertilizer business contributes to agricultural productivity enhancement across several African countries, with an expansion projection of 12 million metric tons by 2029. And I'll tell you a little story. The issue of why we decided to go head on on fertilizers was when I watched on TV during the Ukraine and Russia war, at the beginning of it, African countries delegated the chairman of the African Union then, President Macky Sall, to go and be begging for fertilizer for African countries. And I said no, this is not done. We cannot sit as Africans and be begging. Today we have 9 million tons under construction, and we have 3 million tons that we have been producing for the last 3 years, and we are opening up mines in potash and phosphate in Congo-Brazzaville, and we are doing DAP, and we are doing a swap arrangement with banks to make sure that financing is available for countries in Africa. It means that farmers will be getting fertilizers when it is due or when they are supposed to get those things. So it means that agriculture will actually be propelled to the next level by the grace of God by 2030. The cement business has substantially reduced dependence on imports while stimulating construction and infrastructural development. With expansion of our capacity, we have just about 55 million tons today in operation. By this year, we'll be at about 62. By 2030, we'll be at 100 million tons of capacity of cement. These experiences illustrate an important lesson: industrialization requires patient capital. It requires long-term vision. It requires supportive public policies, including state protection against foreign dumping, substandard products, uncompetitive practices. And above all, it requires confidence that Africa can produce, not merely consume, but even the excess it can actually export to the rest of the world. When you look at West Africa alone, which is ECOWAS, ECOWAS imports 32 million tons of cement, and we are aggressively putting up cement plants in Nigeria to make sure we address those issues, because there are very few countries in West Africa out of the 15. I think only about four countries have sufficient limestone to produce cement, and there's no way you can develop without cement because of infrastructure. So at this juncture, let me pause and emphatically reiterate that industrialization is capital intensive. Africa's annual infrastructure gap remains estimated at between $100 billion and $170 billion. Long-term domestic capital markets remain shallow. Pension assets are underutilized. Project preparation capacity remains very weak. Commercial lending tenors are often inadequate, and development finance institutions are trailing behind. Multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, the IFC, the African Development Bank, and regional development banks can help de-risk industrial investment. Domestic capital mobilization vehicles, blended finance instruments, special industrial financing facilities, and a focal industrialization financing platform for Africa should be developed. African sovereign wealth funds and pension funds can scale assets towards productive investment. But most importantly, Africa must mobilize its own savings. Foreign investment is valuable, but domestic investment is indispensable. What I'm trying to say here is that when you look at pension funds in Africa, you are talking about a total of almost about $600 billion. But are we really putting that $600 billion into use? I think the answer we know is it's not. And there are a lot of financial institutions that are actually not interested in seeing the development of Africa. We need to wake up and do things by ourselves.

History suggests that countries which successfully industrialized relied substantially on domestic capital accumulation before attracting significant external investments. Now, honorable ministers, the prime minister of Guinea-Bissau, honorable ministers, central bank governors, top government policymakers: industrialization cannot succeed without sound macroeconomic foundations. Investors, local or foreign, require stability. Businesses require productivity. Manufacturers require competitive exchange rates, reliable energy supply, and efficient logistics systems. Specifically, let me mention key policy priorities that are fundamental for Africa's industrialization. Maintaining macroeconomic stability and policy consistency. Investing aggressively in energy generation, transport corridors, and digital infrastructure. Harmonizing customs procedures and reducing non-tariff barriers. Reforming educational systems to align skills development with industrial requirements. And strengthening institutions responsible for industrial planning and implementation. But when you really look at it, how do we develop our continent? We are busy not implementing the AFCFTA, which is free movement of goods, services, and people. Why? If I hold a British passport, I will move freer in Africa than an African. This must stop. It must actually stop, because the issue is that if we don't allow trade among ourselves, we will remain divided, and a divided house does not stand. So please, let's have everything since we have all the big guys here. We should champion our continent's growth. It is possible. We can do it. So industrial policy should not be confused with protectionism. Successful industrial policy identifies strategic sectors, addresses market failures, coordinates investment, and incentivizes competitiveness. Government should not attempt to replace entrepreneurs. They should create conditions under which entrepreneurs can flourish. Industrialization is not solely a government project. Nor can it be delegated entirely to the markets. It requires a compact between government, businesses, financiers, and development partners. Governments provide enabling conditions. Private investors provide capital, innovation, and execution capacity. Development institutions provide catalytic financing and technical assistance. Academic institutions generate research and human capital. While regional organizations facilitate coordination. And each actor has a role, and none can succeed alone. We have to do things collectively. Your excellencies, ministers, governors, ladies and gentlemen, my final words are a call to action. Africa stands at an inflection point. The continent possesses resources that the world increasingly needs. It possesses a growing market. It possesses abundant labor. It possesses entrepreneurial talent. What Africa lacks is not potential but sufficient productive capacity. Let us not continue to treat industrialization as merely an economic agenda. We must treat it as an agenda for our dignity. It is an agenda for sovereignty, and it is an agenda for shared prosperity. The future of Africa cannot be built on exporting crude oil and importing refined products. It cannot be built on exporting cocoa beans and importing chocolate. It cannot be built on exporting lithium and importing batteries. Nor can it be built on exporting young people in search of opportunities elsewhere. Africa must increasingly consume what it produces, possess what it extracts, and trade more extensively with itself. The African Continental Free Trade Area provides the market. Our youthful population provides the labor. Our natural resources provide the inputs. And our entrepreneurs provide the ambition. What remains is collective resolve. If the 19th century belonged to Europe, and the 20th century belonged largely to North America and Asia, there is no reason why the 21st century cannot become the century in which Africa finally realizes its industrial destiny. Africa's industrialization is not simply desirable. It is indispensable. And economic integration is not merely complimentary. It is the accelerator that can transform Africa's industrial aspirations into enduring prosperity for its people. But I want to say just a few words: what is the job that we are supposed to do? And I realize that yes, there are two things why in Africa we have not been able to attract a lot of people to come and invest. And let me tell you here based on my experience, nobody will come on their own to invest in Africa unless we Africans lead. We must de-risk that investment in Africa. When we de-risk it, when they see Africans investing, they will come. It's like what I was just saying in the waiting room. I was asking the minister of finance of the Gambia, and I said, you know, when you have a restaurant, have you ever seen an advert of a restaurant? They don't advertise. Somebody will go and eat, he will enjoy the food, then he will tell you that come to the restaurant by the corner, go and eat. So in reality, we can actually make it. It's not a very difficult thing to do. And the entrepreneurs also should wake up. We should stop taking our money abroad. Those money that we are taking abroad, a lot of our families don't know about it. So when we die, the money dies with us. That's the truth. Because if you go now, if I go now, I've hidden $10 billion, I will not share that information with my wife and my children because their demands will go high. So what I'm trying to say, African entrepreneurs must come with a big heart and do big things. You know what we are doing? We in Dangote Group are trying to show the African people that come, this thing is possible. It is possible. We can do it. Why are we shying away? If you look at it today, we have a lot of musicians, many of whom you know in Nigeria. Most of these guys they actually grew on their own with no help from government, and they are top rated, top 10 in the world. Burna Boy, any one of these guys, when they go on a plane, you will not find a seat in a stadium. So in entrepreneurship, we should try and do our jobs. The job of government should be that when you make money, you also make sure that you are socially responsible. You pay your taxes so that government can do what they are supposed to be doing, and to also show Africans that it can be done. We alone as a company have the Vision 2030. What is Vision 2030? What are we trying to achieve? We are trying to achieve one thing: to encourage Africans to come in and invest. It's not really about money. It's about legacy. And we must make sure that we save our continent by doing what is right. Today we are saying that yes, by 2030, where do we want to be? We want to be among the top 120 companies in the world by having a revenue of over $100 billion. And it is possible. We've done the numbers. It's not a vision of the head. No, no, no. It's a vision that is being tracked on a monthly basis, and it can be done. Why are we not doing it? So please, African entrepreneurs, stop taking your money abroad. Invest in your continent, and that will bring prosperity.

Your excellencies, I know that time is of essence. All of you, you are busy. You are waiting to hear the prime minister of Guinea-Bissau. So I don't want to, I can talk between now and tomorrow because I have a lot of experience and I know what it takes to make sure that Africa becomes the greatest continent. But you know, if you remember the economies a couple of years back, they say Africa rising. That Africa rising is today. There is a lot of capital that wants to really come to Africa. I was telling the honorable minister, we did a couple of events in June and July. Just July is starting, today is the 7th. In June, we did our fertilizer company did for the first time, we have never done bonds, but we did a bond at 7.75% for 5 years, unrated, also unsecured, at that rate of $750 million. Three weeks later, our refinery also did a bond which is even lower than the federal government of Nigeria's rating, at 7.5% for 5 years, unsecured and rated. So we also rolled out to do a private placement for our refinery, and we said to anybody interested, not anybody because private placement you invite a few selected people to come and invest, and we got a demand of $4.7 billion, but we couldn't take that much. We took about $2.5 billion, which we haven't even really confirmed whether it's 2.5, but we have cash in our accounts of more than $2.8 billion. So what this means is that yes, there is a lot of appetite for investment in Africa. What we need is we must lead as Africans. And once we do that, you see that within a few years there will be a lot of prosperity. But we must make sure we allow free movement of goods, services, and people. Your excellencies, for this Banjul Caucus meeting, I'm proposing a mission as one of the major takeaways: an African Industrialization Compact 2035, where IMF, World Bank Group, governors, alternate governors, governments, private sector players, and development partners make measurable commitments to its actualization. I don't want to hear anything about potentials of Africa. The potentials are there. Let's get it out of the way. Thank you.