About Ben Thompson
Ben Thompson, founder of the technology analysis site Stratechery, has been a frequent commentator on Apple, AI, and the tech industry in recent months. On his podcast Sharp Tech, Thompson described Apple's decision to raise prices on Macs mid-cycle as a "bearish signal," arguing that the company's failure to raise prices at launch and its subsequent out-of-band increase suggested Apple "just don't know what's going on." He has also been critical of Apple's AI strategy, stating that the company's 2026 Worldwide Developers Conference was underwhelming because it could either show exciting new features that no one would believe or deliver basic features that work, leaving everyone unimpressed. Thompson has written that Apple's approach to AI, which leverages its existing user data and device context, is a "smart" strategy that does not require massive capital expenditure, but he noted that the company's credibility on AI has been damaged by its bungled 2024 launch of Apple Intelligence.
Thompson has also analyzed the broader AI landscape, writing that Anthropic's "safety superpower" is a "beautiful coincidence" where the company's policy decisions, such as retaining user data for 30 days, happen to be great for business. He has discussed the Xbox strategy, arguing that Microsoft's Game Pass model "cannibalized their existing business" without expanding the market. On the topic of AI infrastructure, Thompson has written about the potential for data centers in space, calling it a "risky investment" but one that could provide "free power" and unlimited compute. He has also commented on the memory chip oligopoly, stating that the three major memory makers (Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung) are "creating the conditions for everyone else in the world to endure pain" by not investing sooner, which he said could lead to reduced dependency on them.
Source: AI-verified profile updated from Ben Thompson's recent appearances.
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Transcript (36 segments)
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Ben Thompson0:00
That's just the reality of trade-offs.
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Interviewer0:02
Well, we shall see. I mean, part of what I was wondering with America creating its own memory suppliers is, like, if Apple wanted to go work with a second source memory supplier, does the oligopoly now have so much power that they could put the screws to Apple and punish them for that?
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Ben Thompson0:23
It's not put the screws to Apple and punish them for that. It's that Apple's not getting any special pricing. That's why Apple raised prices this week. It's funny because Apple was the king of memory. They needed a lot of memory back in the day with the iPods. They did a very famous deal, walk up all flash. You know, there's different kinds of memory. We're talking about DRAM, the actual working memory of a computer that has to be powered continuously. There's also flash that is permanent storage. So on your iPod you need a bunch of flash to store the songs. You can turn the iPod off and the songs won't disappear.
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Ben Thompson0:55
But Apple locked up the entire market for like two years.
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Ben Thompson1:00
Because they knew how many iPods they were going to sell, and that spurred more capacity. But for a while they just had this totally down. So it's really interesting to look back on that to appreciate that Apple's price raises this week are one of the more bearish indicators for Apple that I've seen in a long time.
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Ben Thompson1:24
And the reason is that number one, I don't think they saw this memory increase coming at all, right? Because they would have made the moves that they made in the past. They would have locked up way, like remember Jensen Huang being out there drinking soju with the Samsung CEO or whatever, all those pictures? He saw it coming.
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Ben Thompson1:47
He was out there securing supply such that everyone else is having a hard time.
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Ben Thompson1:52
So he was
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Interviewer1:54
Cook drinking soju.
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Ben Thompson1:55
Didn't see Tim Cook out there securing memory supply. Okay, so number one, I don't think they saw this coming generally.
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Ben Thompson2:01
No, number two, I made a steak dinner bet with John Gruber that the new Macs they introduced in March were going to include a price increase.
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Ben Thompson2:12
How could they not given what was happening with memory? It blew my mind they did not increase prices then because layered on that is one of Apple's brand promises: we don't change prices. Now part of that is we don't decrease prices so you can always buy with confidence. I believe this. There's never been a secretary sale because I don't want someone in the moment of decision
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Interviewer2:40
You don't want to feel like they got cheated.
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Ben Thompson2:42
Someone is sitting on that page deciding whether to subscribe or not. I don't want even a hint in the back of their mind, 'Oh, I'll just wait for the sale.'
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Ben Thompson2:50
That's right. Like the once a year sort of thing, right? No, my price is my price. It's only going in one direction. It will increase at times. It is never going to be cheaper. Now Apple is not cutting prices for sure, but they also usually never want to change prices while product is in the market. You should be able to count on Apple prices are what they are. We don't like, you know, you go to Dell, a computer is a different price every single day, right?
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Ben Thompson3:18
That's fine. That's part of their promise, right? You can customize whatever you want. The price will be whatever you want. Who knows? If you need a computer, just buy it. Apple doesn't do that. So by not raising prices in March, what that suggests to me is even in March, when all this agentic stuff was working in the market
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Interviewer3:38
No appreciation for what was coming. Yeah.
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Ben Thompson3:41
They seemed to be like, well, maybe it'll blow over. It's pretty unbelievable.
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Interviewer3:46
Maybe it's like the old cycles, right? It's going to be six months and it'll
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Ben Thompson3:50
Right, we have a lot of inventory. Let's try to wait as long as we can, see if we can make it through. And they said on the earnings call that this is definitely going to impact the second quarter a little bit, but it's definitely going to impact the third quarter. I think they're like, we're still in the second quarter and they're like, oh, we're out there. Prices are up hundreds of dollars and it suggests to me this is a company that still has no idea what's going on with AI.
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Interviewer4:17
[laughter]
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Ben Thompson4:18
But continues to win, you know, what I mean? The Siri thing, like I said, that's 2024 technology. Now, we said in 2024 this stuff is so good there's tons of products to be built on what exists right now. And that governs the fact that Apple is going to ship in 2026 what they promised in 2024 and it's going to be great. Because AI is amazing. It is also nowhere close to what AI is capable of right now in 2026, much less going forward. And the fact that Apple, it's not just that Apple missed the memory thing, fair enough. The fact they didn't raise prices in March when they could have at least preserved their brand promise that when we launch a product at a price it stays that price no matter what, and they're having to out of band increase prices in this very awkward sort of way suggests that they just don't know what's going on.
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Interviewer5:11
Flying blind.
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Interviewer5:13
[laughter]
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Ben Thompson5:13
It's not great.
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Interviewer5:14
Apple has become a bunch of normies out there in Cupertino.
