"THEY All LIED! Everyone Is 100% WRONG About this Bitcoin Cycle" - Cathie Wood Bitcoin Interview

🎥 May 01, 2026 📺 EVERYDAY FINANCE ⏱ 17m 👁 2950 views

"THEY All LIED! Everyone Is 100% WRONG About this Bitcoin Cycle" - Cathie Wood Bitcoin Interview Catherine Duddy Wood is an American investor and the founder, CEO and CIO of Ark Invest, an investment management firm. #CathieWood #Bitcoin #Ethereum -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📩 For business inquiries contact us at: [email protected] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Credits: Title: This Jobs Report Screams Recession. Why We Disagree | ITK With Cathie Wood Link: • This J...

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About Cathie Wood

Cathie Wood, CEO and founder of Ark Invest, has appeared on multiple media outlets in recent months to discuss her investment outlook, focusing on artificial intelligence, SpaceX, Bitcoin, and the U.S. economy. On Fox Business, she stated that SpaceX could become "history's biggest company" and described the current period as a "once in a generation build up" driven by productivity growth. She also said she is increasing investments in SpaceX and defense companies, and argued that the U.S. can "leapfrog China" in AI because China "has old technology now." In other appearances, Wood said she believes productivity growth will accelerate to 5-6% within five years, and that government statistics on employment and inflation have become "very distorted." She expressed support for new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, saying his task force on data could bring in private data sources that would show inflation is lower than official figures suggest. Wood has maintained a bullish stance on Bitcoin, stating that "our conviction in it has not been diminished" and that she would "consider increasing exposure to Bitcoin as many are worried about the four-year cycle." She described Bitcoin's value proposition as "non-government and seizure-resistant money," contrasting it with stablecoins, which she said are "an extension of government money" and could increase the dollar's influence by exporting dollars to emerging markets. On Tesla's robotaxi service, Wood said after a ride in Austin that "slowly, slowly, slowly is moving into all at once," and predicted Tesla would win "most of the market" in autonomous ride-hailing. She also argued that auto production has already peaked, and that the cost of transportation could fall to 25 cents per mile. Wood has described the Federal Reserve's 2022 interest rate hikes as a "mistake" that prolonged a supply shock, and said she expects deflation is a "real possibility" due to technology.

Source: AI-verified profile updated from Cathie Wood's recent appearances. Browse all interviews →

Transcript (13 segments)

Cathie Wood0:00

I think as many people were delaying hiring and using more AI and that should be even more the case, but there are going to be tough comparisons. So I just wanted to cite that as we maintain our view that productivity growth is going to accelerate on a year-over-year basis into that 5 to 6% range sometime during the next 5 years. Probably sooner rather than later. And then the last is the Fed's inflation framework, its models, its measures and so forth. I think that's a clue that Kevin Warsh believes that the inflation numbers are somewhat distorted and hopefully he's looking at some private data like Trueflation which says inflation is much lower than the government thinks it is.

Narrator1:04

Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Cathie Wood's firm conviction that Bitcoin has completed its bottoming process is not a casual observation, but a deeply rooted thesis tied to a broader macroeconomic argument involving inflation, the US dollar and Federal Reserve policy. Analyzing the Bitcoin to gold ratio, Wood observes that Bitcoin's parallel decline alongside gold has concluded, signaling the resumption of its long-term, albeit volatile, upward trajectory. While skeptics might view this purely as a technical chart reading prone to historical breakdowns, the strength of her call lies in the underlying macro forces she identifies, particularly her belief that true inflation is already much lower than official government reports suggest. Ultimately, Wood's perspective reminds investors that market bottoms are rarely obvious in real time, making proactive preparation and secure self-custody essential before the next cyclical upswing inevitably takes off.

Cathie Wood1:57

I am so happy that Kevin Warsh is now at the Fed and that one of his task forces is going to look at data, government data, how it's derived, and probably bring in more private data, which I think will be very helpful. I think these government statistics have become very distorted. So, we'll do a lot around that and we'll also be looking at inflation and trying to figure out where it's going. I just got back from a trip throughout Asia and Europe. And the fear of inflation and higher interest rates was palpable. Now, I think one of the reasons for that is currencies elsewhere in the world have been going down or in many places. I think Japan and Korea are the most notable. So, I think their focus on the dollar, inflation, interest rates was as much about their own currencies as inflation and interest rates themselves. So, we'll get into that as well. So, what I'd like to do is talk about Kevin Warsh's five task forces. I think he's going first principles on us, which I love because I think we need a lot of improvement in terms of the monetary policy. His first task force is on Fed communications.

Now, Fed communications, I think means that he thinks that all of the Fed governors talking almost every day and disturbing the markets is completely unnecessary. And we couldn't agree more. It gives high frequency traders something to do, but it really is not helpful, I think, to the markets. The second one is focusing on the Fed's balance sheet, which is still $6.7 trillion. It's down from $8.5 trillion. But I do believe that he will reinstate quantitative tightening at the appropriate time to get the balance sheet down even more. And I just don't know what the right time is. He doesn't want to spook the markets. We know that. And I've often said that quantitative tightening is, to me, more symbolic because what they're doing is just taking down bank reserves that are at the Fed and that have not been activated in the form of loans. So I think tidying that up probably is a good idea. Certainly taking the risks out of the kindling. The third is data sources and I do believe he's going to turn to private sector data sources, at least more of them. I don't think he'll dismantle government data. But he's certainly going to cross-check the government data against private data and probably introduce more private data sources into the Fed's own research.

The fourth is productivity and jobs during this transformation, as he calls it. Acknowledging that we are in a technology revolution and that productivity probably is accelerating and that government statistics are not picking this up correctly. So productivity is about 2.9% on a year-over-year basis right now. We think it's going to accelerate into the 5 to 6% range. This year is going to be a little confusing because productivity a year ago was negative in the first quarter. So that 2.9% is against a negative. But then there are two very big comparisons. The numbers that rapid growth in productivity last year was pretty astonishing. I think as many people were delaying hiring and using more AI and that should be even more the case, but there are going to be tough comparisons. So I just wanted to cite that as we maintain our view that productivity growth is going to accelerate on a year-over-year basis into that 5 to 6% range sometime during the next 5 years. Probably sooner rather than later.

And then the last is the Fed's inflation framework, its models, its measures and so forth. I think that's a clue that Kevin Warsh believes that the inflation numbers are somewhat distorted and hopefully he's looking at some private data like Trueflation which says inflation is much lower than the government thinks it is.

Narrator7:31

Cathie Wood would highlight the stark disparity between official government data and real-time private metrics, pointing to a daily price tracking measure that places headline inflation at roughly 1.75%, less than half of the official CPI print of 4.2%, with core inflation sitting even lower in the 1% range. If true inflation is indeed this low, the justification for the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy and elevated long-term yields collapses, creating a highly supportive macroeconomic backdrop for high-risk long-duration assets like Bitcoin. While the gap between these metrics stems from the slow lagging nature of official fixed basket government data versus the faster but potentially noisier real-time feeds, what is highly encouraged by internal Fed task forces currently reviewing how economic data is constructed. She expects this will eventually lead to the integration of granular private data sources to better capture rapid AI-driven productivity gains, signaling a structural policy shift that, while directionally important rather than an immediate catalyst, could alter future interest rate decisions in ways the market has yet to price in.

Cathie Wood8:36

Here is the oil price on a year-over-year basis. It's based on a 3-month moving average. And so you can see right now on that basis we're into the 50s on a year-over-year basis. But look at the X. The X shows you where we are on a year-over-year basis point-to-point this time last year versus today. And most of that inflation is out and as Hormuz opens up more and more, we think the oil price could drop precipitously, especially as transportation is going electric. And it's not just robo taxis, it's trucks, it's drones. So at the margin, we think the case for oil is diminishing, meaning the bull case for oil is diminishing quite significantly. And we would not be surprised to see a general deflationary world for oil in the next few years. So, on this chart, you can see the commodity price index. This is not year-over-year percent change. This is level. You can see we've had a bit of a burst here, and it's been consistent with an increase in the purchasing managers index. Now, the dollar if it goes up, will exert downward pressure on commodity prices, because most commodities are priced in dollars. And so, you can see the dollar did have a little bit of a move up recently, and commodity prices have come in a bit. Now, oil is a part of the commodity complex, so it will, of course, exert a downward influence on this, but if we're right, and manufacturing comes back as strongly as we believe it will. It's already started. Then we will need or we will get from the commodities market a signal that demand is increasing relative to supply, and that will mean upward pressure in many commodity prices. So, we do not think this is a gauge of broad-based inflation, however. It is more and more just a signal, a call for more production, more supply.

Now, on the next chart, we've presented this many times. This is, of course, CPI versus core PPI. Core PPI inflation is above core CPI inflation. That suggests one of two things. That there are margin squeezes in consumer products companies. Or they are harnessing AI and automation generally to increase their efficiency and preserve margins. But it is a phenomenon and we think it will continue for a while.

So, on the next slide, you can see a measure of inflation that has been in place. This is not a new measure of inflation. It's been in place since 2010 and it measures tens of thousands of items in real time every day. And you can see what it is saying about headline inflation right now. It's saying it's at about 1.75%, well below, in fact, less than half the 4.2% CPI metric. And on the next chart, you can see the core inflation as measured by Trueflation is down in the low 1% range. Again, maybe this is what long-term Treasury yields are looking at or at least one of the signals they're looking at. And why the yield curve is flattening out again.

So, on the next slide, you can see we'll get into employment. This employment number was crazy. So, household employment was down roughly 500,000. Non-farm payroll employment was up maybe 57,000, roughly half of what economists expected. So on that score, it was a very weak report. You can see on this chart rarely does this measure of employment decline in the absence of a recession, which you can see in the shaded areas. So, what might be going on here is that companies are not hiring as rapidly as they once did, and they are relying more on AI. And the new business creations, which we are seeing from new business applications, that this measure of employment has not caught up with what's going on from an entrepreneurial point of view. As many people are starting their own companies just with AI. It's a big recommendation from us for those of you who may be looking for a job, just identify a problem you'd like to solve out there, one that frustrates you, probably frustrates other people, and start your own company. And do it with AI only. And just see how much you can do, and how much more eligible you will be for a job out there. You'll probably go to the top of the list. So, on the next chart, this is the labor force. This is something I mean, there was a huge drop in this last month, and it's very hard to explain. It seems to have occurred, and increasingly we're seeing it in the women, I think, between 24 and 35. So, could be something having to do with childbearing, I don't know. But you can see here, too, it's rare for this to go down even in a recession. 2008-2009 was a big exception there. And of course COVID. But really trying to puzzle through this and we'll see if it's revised. This is why we need Kevin Warsh to help look at the data out there and, you know, bring it into the modern age because something is not right.

Okay, on the next page, we do focus on youth unemployment. The betting or the prediction markets are saying that the unemployment rate will not drop below 7.5% this year.

Narrator16:07

Cathie Wood directly challenges the popular narrative of fading dollar dominance, pointing to data that shows overseas Treasury holdings are rising overall, despite documented selling from nations like China and India, and agreeing with prediction markets that forecast a stronger US dollar due to superior domestic returns on invested capital. However, this expectation of a strengthening dollar sits in historical tension with her bullish completed bottom call on Bitcoin, as dollar strength has traditionally acted as a headwind for high-risk assets by draining global liquidity. Wood leaves this contradiction largely unresolved, implicitly relying on the idea that robust technology-driven US growth can lift both the dollar and Bitcoin simultaneously as a long duration bet on monetary change. Ultimately, her thesis paints Bitcoin's bottom not as an isolated crypto event, but as one piece of a broader macroeconomic puzzle where falling real inflation and resilient US growth are expected to lift risk assets, making the resolution of this dollar-crypto tension the critical test to watch in the coming months.