Back
Walter Hulse
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer, Investor Relations and Corporate Development, Oneok, Inc.

A Fireside Chat with SAM Series:ONEOK on Delivering Vital Energy Products and Services

🎥 May 07, 2025 📺 Paul Doran ⏱ 60m 👁 111 views
On Wednesday May 7th at 11:00 AM EST, ELCO Management and Siegel Asset Management (SAM) Partners will host a fireside chat with Pierce H. Norton II (CEO) and Walter S. Hulse III (CFO) of ONEOK, Inc. They will discuss the transformation of the company that began in 2023 with the acquisition of Magellan Midstream Partners and the 2024 acquisitions of Medallion Midstream and EnLink Midstream. These targeted acquisitions expanded the company’s market connectivity and extended its presence in the Permian Basin and Gulf Coast. Additional topics will include the company’s macro-outlook for commoditie...
Watch on YouTube
Transcript (63 segments)
P
Paul Duran0:02
Okay, good morning ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining our latest series of webinars with Eve Seagull of Seagull Asset Management Partners. My name is Paul Duran and on behalf of the entire team at Elco Management, I would like to introduce Eve, our subadvisor for the income infrastructure and energy transition portfolios. I would like to remind everyone that today's call is being recorded and a replay will be available. On the screen now are some important disclosures. With that, I'll hand it over to Eve.
E
Eve Seagull0:33
All righty. Thank you, Paul. If you could just take that disclosure slide off. I think people get the sense of that. Yeah, there you go. Thank you. I want to welcome Pierce Norton and Walt Pulse. Pierce is president CEO of Oneok and Walter is the executive vice president CFO and really a pleasure to host both of these gentlemen. I want to thank you and I want to thank everybody else for joining the call. So Pierce, I'll start off with questions unless you have a quick opening remark.
P
Pierce Norton1:10
Well, the only opening remark I'd have, Eve, is just thank you for having us on and again I think all those who are joining us here today. I think Oneok has a great story and we know that you're going to ask us some really good questions and think we'll have some really good dialogue here. So, and Walt and I really appreciate the time that you're spending on here. So, thanks.
E
Eve Seagull1:32
I promise no curve balls. This will be fast balls right up the middle. So what I'm going to try to do also is share just a couple of slides. These are from your first quarter presentation. And can you see that? We can. We can. Oh okay. So, the first question I had for you is, you know, Pierce, it's unbelievable. You joined in 2021 and you guys have been awfully active. In 2023 you bought Mellan Midstream Partners for about $19 billion. Then you followed up in 24 with Enlink Midstream, Medallion Midstream and assets from Eastern Energy. Are you guys tired?
P
Pierce Norton2:24
No. No, we're not tired. We're energized. You know, we actually started out that process back in 2021 in the middle part of the year, sat down as an executive management team and decided what is it this company needs to really sustain itself for decades into the future. And we came up with this criteria. It was nine things on there and we like to call it our shopping list. The way I explain it to our employees is that when I go to the grocery store I either go with a list or without a list. If I go with a list, I'm very strategic. I know what aisle to go on. I know what I'm looking for. I get in and get out. If I don't have a list, I usually wander up and down each aisle and I end up with some impulse buys. And I think the same thing happens on M&A. So we developed this list, we socialized it with the board. I'll give you three examples. One was we felt like we needed more diversity because we were concentrated primarily in the NGL business and in particular up in the Bakken. So we were looking for diversity. We were looking for a company that had strong cash flow that we could actually support these great growth projects and maybe not have to go out and issue as much equity. And then the third thing was we just needed to do more of the things that we have always been doing which is organic growth which came with the diversity. So the first thing we looked at was Mellin or one of the first things as we put different companies through the mix. And then that led us to and we wanted to do that one first primarily because the diversification and the cash flow and then it opened up the door to do more gathering and processing and we specifically targeted the Permian and with Enlink we got the Permian plus with some of these other things. So we're very pleased with the acquisitions that we've done so far and the results that we're getting.
E
Eve Seagull4:35
Well, it also begs the question, do you like the mix of businesses now? I mean, you could see that you added the refined products and crude with Mellin. Is this sort of where you want to be or do you have any other type of acquisitions that you might be wanting to fill in here?
P
Pierce Norton5:00
Well, what we do every time we do an acquisition, we sit down and recalibrate. We say, 'Okay, what have we accomplished through this acquisition and what is it that we see that we still might have a gap or whatever?' And so we've actually done that. We've socialized that again for the board and we're just not feeling the need to go out and aggressively do anything in the market right now. The other thing I'd say is on these other acquisitions we focused on initiating those conversations in the beginning. It wasn't that somebody came to us and said, 'Hey, we'd like to sell to you.' And that puts you in a really unique position so that you can more control the timing of what it is that we've done. And it takes a while to get some of these things done. But the thing I like about it is you're able to go to one of these companies because you specifically see that those two companies together can be far greater than they are apart. And so there's some selling on the front end of this thing, the way we've done it. But we've been successful so far. I'd like walking kind of add to the mix comment.
W
Walter Hulse6:11
Mix comment. Yeah. Well, Eve, I think that if you look at the last 10 years, our competitive advantage has been that we have this fantastic asset position in the middle of the country and we've been able to expand and extend that so that we're constantly doing brownfield type of additions to our system and adding assets that are very complementary to the business. When we looked at Mellin, one of the things that we saw immediately was that we had two pipe systems that laid right on top of each other. They were interchangeable. You can move refined products or NGLs on either set of pipes. And with those two systems together, it opened up an enormous amount of opportunities to really grow, extend and expand our business. And we've done some of that like expanding out to the Denver airport with an enhancement to our refined products business, expanding an existing pipe that goes out there. As we brought Mellin in, that gave us the entrance into the crude market. But what we really need to do to expand and extend was to fill some of those assets. And that's where Medallion came in because it sits right between the two Mellan pipes that we bought out there in the Permian and Medallion now gives us a source of crude for that business. And you can kind of lay that over to the GMP side of the equation. We didn't have a presence in the Permian from a GMP standpoint. Enlink gave us an entry point there with a meaningful position in GMP and a source of NGLs for our NGL pipe that we were recently expanding while still touching other places where we have fantastic businesses in the midcontinent and giving us an entrance into Louisiana.
So I think that it's that expand and extend concept that we're always looking for, things that we can do that grow off of our existing system. So to answer your question, I don't see us in a situation where we would step out and just do something completely unrelated. It's going to continue to grow off of this asset position.
E
Eve Seagull8:30
And I know Walt, this is your favorite slide from your earnings presentation. And this sort of shows the accretion that you have been able to achieve and expect to achieve. Do you want to just walk through this one slide?
W
Walter Hulse8:48
Sure. What this slide does, it takes the five-year plans that were in existence for first Oneok and then Mellin and then Enlink and Medallion at the time that we did the acquisition. So if you go back to 2023, it would be the information that Mellin had put in the proxy. So what their five-year plan was, but Oneok's five-year plan and then Enlink and Medallion. And I think what this clearly demonstrates is that when you put these companies together, it created a number of opportunities for synergies. Clearly there were some cost synergies that gave us a benefit, but more importantly, the commercial synergies were exceptional and it gave us the opportunity to do other growth projects. I pointed out the Denver pipe that's feeding the Denver airport with jet fuel primarily but also gives us access to the full Denver market. That's a growth project that may or may not have been done by Mellin, but definitely when you looked at it in the context of a bigger company made a ton of sense.
So we've put together both growth and synergy here to show the opportunity set and the delta between those stacked bar graphs and the line that goes across really is a quantification of the value we've created by putting these companies together. And the only thing that I'd add to that is, and this is the reason I'm adding this, because it gives you insight into the way we think as a management team, as a company. If we were to only size that pipe out to the Denver airport for what exactly was needed for the growth of the gates that they're planning on putting in, then we would put in a smaller pipe. But we actually upsized that pipe seeing that there's potential need in the Denver Front Range area for additional refined products. And so we could add those extra inches onto the pipe far easier when it's on top of the ground than you can when it's under the ground. And that allows us to have a really good return on the initial project and gives us tremendous upside in the future as that refined market grows out there on the Denver Front Range area.
E
Eve Seagull11:10
So just so that I'm clear, if we look at this slide, in 2024 you reported adjusted EBITDA of just about $6.5 billion. Mhm. If you had not made the Mellan acquisition it would have been $55 million less than that number. Is that the way to think about it? And then in 2025, you guided the midpoint of your guidance is $8.2 billion of EBITDA. And if you hadn't done those transactions, it would have been $523 million. If you just looked at what those companies alone would have done, aggregated those companies, and then added $523 million, that gets you to $8.2 billion. Is that the right way to look at it?
W
Walter Hulse12:03
Yeah, it's the additive combination of those companies and then the additional opportunities that were created by putting the companies together, synergies and growth. And so that to us is the incremental earnings power of these combined assets. And you know our plans had some other things that were happening in other businesses. So you can't really tie this directly to just synergies because you have some ups and downs in all of the various businesses but these were the plans going forward and then the incremental value created.
E
Eve Seagull12:43
All right. So if you bottom line it, how have the transactions lived up to expectations?
P
Pierce Norton12:50
Well, the Mellan transaction has far exceeded our expectations. When we put these assets together and brought these teams together both operationally and commercially, the opportunities just continue to present themselves. Some of those opportunities, primarily connecting our Mount Belvieu facility with the East Houston distribution centers that Mellin had, we're going to take some capital. We kind of jumpstarted that process and took a year off the timing by buying the Easton assets which got us about 80% of the way there to connect those assets up. And this year we're just finishing those connections. So we'll see the next kind of wave of Mellin synergies coming in as we connect those assets to the east through the East assets. We've done some connections that are finishing up this year between our refined product system and our mid-continent NGL system. That will enhance blending opportunities for the refined products business and open up markets for our NGL business. So those capital oriented synergies are just starting to come in from Mellan on Enlink and Medallion. We're in the earlier stages of that. We've only owned Enlink outright now for about four months. But we're seeing great opportunities as we move forward there as well. There are some capital opportunities that we're going to have to spend to get some of those synergies. It's not quite as capital intensive as some of the Mellan synergies were. So our expectation is that we'll see the benefits of those coming in a little quicker in 26 and into 27 and out to 28. The thing I want to emphasize here is the fact that these synergies are by and large in our control. So when we started out we talked about batching, blending and bundling. All of those things really require some level of engineering, some adjustments to operation, maybe some construction projects, but we're not depending on another contract to be executed by a third party to actually bring these synergies in. So that's something that's pretty unique. A lot of acquisitions you do one of these but you have to depend on somebody else to do something with a contract later on down the road. But these especially with Mellin have been all in our control so that it's nothing more than us being able to execute on the engineering and the construction and the operations of the way we do it in the future.
E
Eve Seagull15:42
Have there been any negative surprises?
P
Pierce Norton15:46
The positive surprises have far outweighed the negative surprises. You know, one of the best things that we did was the minute we closed the Mellan deal, within 24 hours we had our commercial teams together on the same floor integrated and working together. Walt likes to say that we had a really good handle on what was happening from a value standpoint from the wellhead to the end of the frack. We probably underestimated the value that's downstream of the frack. And that's what we've seen when we got our people together because we had the big pieces put together and we had accurately portrayed those but we've just found more and more things together and our people are doing this. This is not coming from management.
E
Eve Seagull16:39
I'm going to have another question based on just what you just said. But before I do that, the annual report, the tagline, I think I can call it the tagline is growing, integrated, reliable. What does that mean?
P
Pierce Norton16:56
Well, first of all, I think the word integration is really important there. Because our business model is about basically touching as many molecules as we can as many times as we can for as long as we can. And in the basic gist of our business, it's really about taking the molecules where they're worth less, they have less value, and moving it to a location where they have more. And what we've done is we put together a collection of assets that are physically connected that they never or rarely ever leave our system before they get to the person that values those the most. So to me the most important thing on that is the integration piece. Of course the growing comes from the synergies and the basins that we're in. They continue to grow and you have volume growth. Sometimes those slow, sometimes they speed up, but we're set up so that we have some built-in capacity with processing capacity up in the Bakken and gathering capacity. We've got capacity on our NGL lines coming out of the Bakken. We got capacity on our Permian lines coming out of the basin. So that's when we kind of come up with that slogan feed and fill. That's the growth piece and the integration piece I think is very important.
E
Eve Seagull18:26
Okay. Well, I want to just move if I could just to macro and you have a great slide here as well. And you might want to just talk about this slide because it just seems to me that oil prices are under pressure right now. So there's some concern in the marketplace of how that's going to impact the energy companies and a couple of producers on their calls have talked about slowing down activity and so there is concern that perhaps you might see oil production especially perhaps in the Permian either flatlining or going down. So the question really is how vulnerable is Oneok to the macro backdrop and how do you think about the macro backdrop today?
P
Pierce Norton19:29
Well this slide, when I got here of course it truncated in 2021, it's now expanded to 2025, but this was one of the first slides that actually Walt showed me. So I know this is one of his favorite slides, so I'll let him kind of address this, but you can see the resiliency through the various downturns that we had, and he can talk you through that.
W
Walter Hulse19:51
Yeah, I think the perception in the marketplace that you're identifying that we are seeing right now, we've lived it before. We lived it back in that 14 to 16 time period when crude took a big hit. And then clearly again in COVID when we saw crude actually go negative. Throughout all of those cycles we've continued to grow EBITDA and I think that comes back to the asset position I was talking about being one of the best out there, really supporting kind of the who's who of a customer base that tend to continue to drill through cycles. Yeah, you know, I think you do have to realize that these are depleting assets that you're serving. So just to stay even, even if you're slowing growth a little bit, you have to continually be out there finding new volumes, generating new volumes. And that means that while crude could be flat, as they're replacing those, there could be opportunities for growth within a midstream business. And I think we've done a pretty good job of making sure that we are positioned with the people that are going to continue to drill and to have businesses that are resilient and that we've provided them the takeaway. And we put the squiggly line there with the crude price to demonstrate that while there's been a perception that we would be significantly potentially impacted by lower crude prices, that hasn't been the reality even through some pretty tough periods in the past. And you look, Eve, at our two main products, which is the crude oil and the natural gas, the demand for those we think is going to continue to be out there. So if you do have a slowdown in the drilling, then you do end up somewhat short of supply and then the price kind of has its way of correcting itself.
Actually all of us I think on this call today we've been around the industry long enough we've seen various cycles and we all seem to get through those. But if you look around the world, you got 7 billion people in the world that don't necessarily live like we do here in the United States. So the quality of life is a big issue. So I think you're going to continue to see both crude oil production go up. You're probably going to see a little bit more exported out of the United States than in the past. And then certainly on the natural gas side, domestically it's going to be driven by artificial intelligence all over the United States. There's different areas that are being looked at right now. The last count I have was like 400 or so different AI data centers that are being evaluated. They may not all come about, but that's going to be three to maybe eight BCF additional a day. And then look at LNG. I mean, we're at 14 to 16 BCF a day now, ramping up to at least say 24 BCF a day, maybe even 27 by 2030. And then there's even some projects out there that are not FID that could even run that thing up over 35 BCF a day. So everything is setting up as good as I've seen it in my career to continue to have that demand pull, which that has a way of correcting the prices even if there's a slowdown.
Yeah, Eve, I would just say that as we went through that criteria back in 21 and then have re-evaluated it since, Pierce just mentioned the demand pull, that was one of the primary attributes that the Mellan acquisition really provided. Most of our business prior to that was really a supply push coming from producers in the field. Clearly Mellan's refined products business brought us the opportunity to have kind of a countercyclical, you know when gas prices are lower people tend to get out there and drive more if that's in an economic downturn. They don't fly, they drive instead. And so we do see some uplift in the refined products in those cycles. So that just further balances out and provides us the diversity to make sure that we can keep this upward trend going for the future.
E
Eve Seagull24:24
So when you go back to this other slide, how much of this is sort of locked in regardless of what happens on the macro front?
W
Walter Hulse24:39
Well, I think that what's interesting about it is a good percentage of the delta between those two is what Pierce was saying is within our control. It really comes when we connect those assets and can get further value for the commodity downstream. So a good chunk of the delta between the stacked bars, clearly in some of the GMP and NGL business there is a volume characteristic to that and if you were to see a downturn in the market those stacked bars may not be quite as high as we were projecting when we were looking at it five years ago. But I think generally the environment has improved since 2023 overall when we were setting these plans. So I think we've set ourselves up to have the opportunity to grow our profitability by taking advantage of opportunities that are completely within our control and not driven by that supply push.
P
Pierce Norton25:49
And a lot of those synergies, like Walt said, it's a matter of the assumptions that we made to get those synergies had to do with that batching, blending and bundling and it is in our control to be able to execute on those. So we don't need additional volume growth. We don't need extra things. It is simply those are the opportunities that are already there with the volumes that we have and those will continue no matter what happens in the pricing market as far as driving additional oil production or gas production.
E
Eve Seagull26:29
Got it. Well, thank you. But how do you see the macro environment as we sit today? And there's several questions within the macro environment. One is how reliant are you on production coming out of the Permian? And number two, perhaps you can talk about the impact of tariffs and how would that impact your business from an inflation perspective?
P
Pierce Norton27:17
Okay. Several questions in that one question, Eve. I'm going to let Walt take the tariff question, but I think it's worth noting to the audience that basically between 2000 and 2010 there wasn't really any growth in the United States as far as the production goes of natural gas and then kind of entered the early phases of the shale revolution between 2007, 2010, really started to take off in 2010. Well, what was driving that was the utilities came to the realization that hey, natural gas is here to stay. It's plentiful. The E&P companies can get it out of the ground. And so they trusted it along with the price to compete with coal. So you had a bunch of coal plant conversions that have happened since basically 2010 and have continued. But then the other impetus was in 2016 the LNG facilities started building off the Gulf Coast and those have then gone from essentially zero in 2016 to basically 12 BCF average in 2024. So now from this point on you're going to continue to see more LNG growth and then on top of that you're going to continue to see the artificial intelligence data center that just has an insatiable appetite for energy. So macro things are setting up really, really well. If you go back and look at the stack of energy, whether that's coal, wood, natural gas, geothermal, renewables, nuclear, the graph shows both domestically and globally that we are in an energy addition mode instead of an energy transition mode. So I think all of those things are stacking up really, really well for midstream companies to be able to continue to do what we've done for decades and decades, which is supply the natural gas and the crude oil that this country and the globe needs and drives the economy and national security. Tariffs, I guess.
W
Walter Hulse29:31
Yeah. On tariffs, I would come at it from a couple of different angles, Eve. If you look at the immediate direct impact on us, it's pretty small. We have procured most if not all of the steel oriented expenditures that we needed to make prior to the tariffs coming in. We generally keep an inventory of compression assets, pump assets so that we have the ability to continue to grow with our clients and not necessarily have any immediate impact from those tariffs. It probably will add one to two percent to the costs of our capital projects as we look at those here in the near term. That's what we're thinking and that's kind of consistent with what some of our peer companies have been saying as well. Um if you think
P
Pierce Norton30:28
About it in the more macro sense, if we don't see some of these countries coming together and solving some of those tariff issues and it puts us into a global recession, then clearly it's going to have some impact on the industry in total. We're hopeful here that we're starting to see signs that some of these negotiations are coming together. But I think that clearly by behavior and the press and everything else, people are taking a little bit more of a cautious attitude until they can get a sense as to what these inflationary-oriented tariffs might be. Now if it does generate a meaningful amount of inflation, I would want to point out that all of our businesses have inflation adjusters in their contracts. The GMP, the NGL as well as the refined products. They all come at various times when they're implemented. But we do have the opportunity to annually adjust our rates for inflation. So a sustained elevation of inflation, if it doesn't create any kind of a global recession, could actually to some extent positively impact us. We saw a pretty positive impact in the previous few years when we saw higher inflation as we flowed that through our contracts.
E
Eve Seagull31:54
So maybe you could just answer the question about if you do see crude production coming down. I'm not sure what your discussions are with producers, what they're telling you. But you might want to just touch on the production outlook and also you guys always reference the oil to gas ratio and how that plays into your business model.
P
Pierce Norton32:24
Sure. Well, I'd go back again to our customer base. We've got kind of the who's who of customers, very large well-capitalized majors and large independents that tend to set their capital plans and continue to execute on those. So we don't expect any immediate reaction something that you might get out of a private equity backed E&P business. We don't have a lot of that on our system. So as these producers continue to at least maintain the existing production in the Bakken in particular, we've enjoyed a really significant growth in the gas to oil ratio. We expect that it went from about 1.6 back in the 2016-2017 range. It's up at about 2.8, 2.9, has bumped up against three from time to time. So even in a flat oil scenario, we will see significant or meaningful growth in our gas capture, and that from our side of the business feeds our GMP and our NGL business. So we do have a little bit of a buffer there. And we expect that gas to oil ratio to continue to increase. People from time to time look at it because it's a little bit volatile. It's volatile because the gas to oil ratio is different in different parts of the basin. So depending on where producers are drilling at a point in time or where we're connecting wells at a point in time, you may see the gas to oil ratio vary slightly on average. But what's consistent across the entire basin is that the gas to oil ratio is rising in every part of the basin. And so over time, we've seen that continue to inch up. And that's a strong benefit for us. And even in low crude oil price environments, we're seeing much more discipline out of the E&P companies. In the past they would show a lot of volatility with adding rigs as the price went up and taking out rigs when the price went down. But because of their discipline, their balance sheets are in much better position so they can withstand some of this. I'd point out that a lot of these laterals are now three and maybe even going to four mile in the horizontal. That's opening up more production for actually less capital. So I think any one of these E&P companies, they don't disclose those numbers, but what you just know intuitively is if you get more production and you spend less capital to drill a well, then the price that you need to break even is going to come down. And I think that's happened. So I think that's the reason that you haven't seen really much of a difference in their behavior to date. Now that may change. I think once it goes into the 50s, they start to pay attention to it a little bit more, but we haven't seen any dramatic changes to it. But we're watching it.
E
Eve Seagull35:37
Well, you had mentioned that we've been around a while, and I remember going back to 2014, 2015 when you saw the dramatic drop in oil prices. And I think the other thing that's really changed is back then, the midstream, your earnings held up really well, but it was more of a question of are their customers going to go bankrupt? And I would suggest that the whole industry is a lot more resilient today because balance sheets are just so strong. So the folks that are spooked about oil prices cratering, at least you can take that off the table that you're not going to see all these companies, your customers, heading for the doors.
P
Pierce Norton36:24
Well, it's an industry that tends to learn from what they go through, right? And over the last 50 years, these industries have gone through a lot.
E
Eve Seagull36:33
Yeah, I also want you mentioned AI a couple of times and you mentioned LNG exports and natural gas. Natural gas is actually the smallest part of your business. So how does one benefit from the AI trend or the higher power demand and LNG exports?
P
Pierce Norton36:57
Well, what we're seeing, Eve, is that speed to market is what's really driving. There's a lot of criteria that they assess when they decide where to set one of these AI data centers. It has to do with where the fiber is, it has to do with the climate or the temperatures in these areas, it has to do with the access to energy. And so what they're realizing is that you have kind of three forms here of electricity that they need. It's either behind the meter, at the meter, or full-blown on the grid. And so we're seeing more opportunities for behind the meter and at the meter to actually supply natural gas to a combined cycle turbine or whatever that's going to generate the electricity. That's what a lot of the people are looking at right now. And they're looking in these areas where you find the natural gas, which is the Permian, the Appalachian, the Haynesville, even up in the Bakken. The Bakken has a really cool climate up there that helps them on the heat transfer that these things generate. So that's where we're seeing a lot of the activity. And as far as LNG goes, with picking up our Louisiana interstate and tri-state gas system called LIG, and the fact that we've got storage down there in that area at the Jefferson Island that is expandable, we're really excited about those kind of opportunities because you got a lot of LNG down there now, and if you've got an LNG plant that goes down, you got to put that gas somewhere immediately. So we're looking for those kind of opportunities to expand storage in those areas and those domes down there that we have are expandable.
E
Eve Seagull38:47
Well, you haven't sanctioned any storage projects yet, have you?
P
Pierce Norton38:52
We actually have. This was actually before we closed on the Enlink deal. We had a storage field down there, Jefferson Island, that had about 2 BCF in it. We're expanding that to seven, but it can even be expanded more than that.
E
Eve Seagull39:08
Are you seeing much in the way of industrial demand increasing along that corridor?
P
Pierce Norton39:15
Absolutely. Mainly ammonia plants. There's some talk about some hydrogen plants that's kind of cooled off a little bit. That was really hot for a while, but it's mainly the ammonia plants, the LNG facilities, and even AI data facilities. There's been a few that have been announced in the Louisiana area.
E
Eve Seagull39:40
Can you spend a couple of minutes talking about the exports of LPGs and the recent project that you announced with MPLX a few weeks ago?
P
Pierce Norton39:55
Yeah, we talk a little bit about how we came to that conclusion. We not only look at the volumes that we project on our facilities, but we also look at what others are going to project on theirs and look at the overall LPG exports that are actually out of the Gulf Coast, especially around the Mont Belvieu fractionators. And we came to the conclusion that we're okay right now, but three or four years from now that capacity would get tight even with all of the ones that are announced, even with us. So we decided that we needed to get an LPG dock down there. We've been looking at one, we've been talking about this for 10 years. You know that. But we finally found a partner that provided us an excellent location to get in and out, the ingress and egress to get in and out with those LPG ships quickly, more quickly than up the ship channel. So the location was very important to us. Location was important because if we put it down there with the Marathon facility, it's considered brownfield. So that just means that the utilities and a lot of things that you would have to bring into a greenfield project were already there. So that lowered the cost, it sped up the project. And we think we got a great partner and it was the closest place that we could locate to our Mont Belvieu storage. So those combined, location to storage, location as far as the cost and it being brownfield, and location to ingress and egress, that's what drove our decision to go ahead and move forward with that. But we do believe that LPG is a market that's fairly balanced. And so for instance, if tariffs cause people to have different behaviors, they're still needing to consume those LPGs. So if they decide that the tariffs are too high and I'm going to change my supply from one area, well they were taking it from somewhere else. So it just finds its way because it's not like a pipeline. It's a ship and can be directed anywhere that it needs to go. And in a balanced market that works out really well just about in all kinds of environments. Yeah. And the other thing I would add to that is that if you look at the LPG market today, it's in balance and the domestic consumption of propane is not increasing. So it hasn't been for quite some time. So all of that incremental propane that's being generated from growth is going over the water. Well, our propane that we're producing out of our fracs is clearing over the market today, but we control that propane. So when our dock comes on, we will be able to put that onto our dock. Right now, it's being sold into the marketplace and then going across other people's docks. So the fact that we had that supply, enough supply to support a dock, was really what drew customers to us to make commitments to us that gave us the comfort to go forward and build this project. And what they saw was access to supply, location that was superior, and they wanted to participate in that. So it's going to be 400,000 barrels per day of export opportunity, of which one will have 200,000 and MPLX will have 200,000.
E
Eve Seagull43:39
So, I think I actually asked Walter's question once before. So I am mindful that I asked the question already, but of that, how much is third party contractual commitments versus Oneok underwriting the project from your own propane that you control?
P
Pierce Norton44:04
Well, I think that there are two different aspects of that. So there are contracts to take the propane across the dock. So that is the demand pull that helped support us make the decision for that. The actual propane that we're putting across that dock, we have the supply to do that today. We do have some producer customers that have worked with us to think about going from the wellhead all the way through to the dock that have supported it from that side. But the real support that got us to the investment decision, along with wanting to be able to control our destiny with our barrels, was really from the demand pull, the people that are taking it across the water.
E
Eve Seagull44:56
So are those the ones that are contracting on the demand pull side, or got a little bit on both sides?
P
Pierce Norton45:05
So typically for a pipeline, when you sanction a pipeline you'd want 70% of the capacity. Is that a rough number? Well, I would say what you need is enough contracts to get you to an acceptable return. Often times in other places we've expanded the diameter of the pipe to give us the opportunity to have operating leverage. And we've been able to do that because it has taken less commitments to give us an attractive return on our capital. So we needed to have a project that was going to generate returns that were competitive with our other opportunities. And the fact that it took us 10 years to get here was that in many cases we looked at the opportunity set and there were better uses of our capital. In this particular case, we were now able to have the moon and the stars align to where we could have a project where the return was acceptable. And not only that, it gave us clear control of our own destiny with those barrels three or four years out down the line. What you don't want to do is find yourself in a position where your product is not moving. But that typically is rare. But what will happen is your product will have to go at a severe discount. And so that was really important to us as we looked at our projections and where our volumes were going and where everybody else's volumes are going. We just felt like this is the time and it just so happened that it aligned up. We probably wouldn't have done this at 400,000 barrels on our own, but to have a partner like Marathon, it was a really good match for us.
E
Eve Seagull46:59
So was this the opportunities downstream of the fracs that you had referred to earlier in the conversation?
P
Pierce Norton47:01
No, those are really more about all the things that you can do to batch the products, to blend the products, those kind of things. We just didn't have as good a feel for the magnitude of those. And there's just all, we told this story numerous times, but there were even some smaller acquisition, not acquisitions, but growth opportunities that maybe weren't being developed under Mellen, and that's no slight on their management. It's just it was a different business model. But to be able to put in some smaller fracs and stuff like that to be able to feed some of the refined products businesses over in West Texas, there are things that you could get a $10 million capital project and you get $8 million on the EBITDA. So those are fantastic return things, and we found several of those kind of things throughout this, and being able to, when you get all the assets together, I got this pipe over here that maybe is empty, or I could convert that to a different kind of service. All of those kind of things are underway too, from a construction standpoint. So they all add up.
E
Eve Seagull48:24
And I apologize upfront because we're running longer than I promised. So I just have two more questions. All right. Hopefully just two more questions. It tends to depend on your answers, too. But the top of mind also is, quote unquote, energy dominance. And you know, Pierce, I really don't want to put you on the spot or Walt in terms of an editorial, but how has the administration's policies impacted the company and energy dominance? If you have any thoughts on that. Are you seeing permitting made easier? Are you seeing deregulation? We're seeing lower oil prices, but I'm not sure if that's because of Trump or Saudi Arabia. So what are your thoughts on energy dominance?
P
Pierce Norton49:23
Well, I will say that the administration, from the Secretary of Interior, Secretary of Energy, EPA head, they have been very proactive of reaching out to the industry and asking one question: what is it that we can do for you to speed up the amount of production or whatever that's going in the United States? And so we've been able to spend quite a bit of time with them either through conferences or through industry type meetings. And I like the rhetoric that's coming out of there. And I do think in the past it's like, well what can you do for me? And the industry would respond, let's speed up regulatory reform. Well, that doesn't really get to the point. This administration is asking specifically, what projects do you have? What can I do for you to speed those up? You know, tell me the name of whoever it is that you're dealing with, and I'll see if I can give you some help. So it's a much different way of approaching problem solving than necessarily what we've seen in the past. We have a saying around here that we don't pick sides, we pick issues. And the issue is energy dominance. So what do we all got to do to make sure that that happens? And part of it is what does that definition mean? And I think what it means is that we can create an energy system here in the United States that is both the most reliable and the most affordable and the cleanest. And we've got a good start to that already because if you look at the balance between fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear, those three things work together to offset whatever the weakness is of any of the other pieces. And so we've got a kind of the envy of the world what we have already, and we're just building on top of that. But I think that's what it's about. It's what can we do to have a healthy industry, but at the same time have low enough cost in our energy systems both from a kilowatt per hour standpoint, dollar per kilowatt, and a dollar per MMBtu or a dollar per Mcf. Because that's what drives electric generation, residential consumption, commercial consumption, industrial consumption. Probably a little bit more answer than you wanted, but we definitely have strong points of view on this.
E
Eve Seagull51:58
Well, no, I really appreciate it. And it also generated one more quick question before I ask the capital allocation question to Walt. Which is, Oneok has consistently scored really high on ESG. And the administration is really talking up fossil fuels, but in your answer to the prior question, you mentioned the word clean. So, has the emphasis shifted in terms of how you think about ESG, clean energy, DEI, emissions reductions? How does that fit into the Oneok story today?
P
Pierce Norton52:46
Well, I think you got to start by saying where did we come from? And where we came from in all of those topics is we never went too far one direction or the other. I like to explain it as if you were playing golf, you just get out your seven iron and you play an entire round with your seven iron. That's going to be a lot more accurate than me taking out my driver. So we never set a zero emission target by 2050. We didn't do that. We actually looked at our assets and said, what realistically can we do to reduce emissions that actually has a return on it? And so that's the things that we focused on. We set a target of reducing by 30% by 2030. We're 75% on our way to doing that. When we get there, we'll take a look at it and see what else we can do. But as far as all of those aspects that you just mentioned, because we didn't go too far one way or the other, we can just stay the course in what we're doing. And I think that's what our employees appreciate as well.
E
Eve Seagull53:56
The only reason I was smiling is when you start with a golf analogy, it doesn't matter what club I use. I mean, it just doesn't. And so I'd be remiss, we have the champion of CFOs, Walt, right here. So, can you talk about capital allocation? And also I'm curious, with the growth capital and the backlog and buybacks and dividend policy, but I'm also curious, how easy is it to flex your capex in one direction or another?
W
Walter Hulse54:29
Well, I will tell you that given all of the assets that we've put together, we have no shortage of growth opportunities and opportunities to spend capital. So what we're doing is we're going through the process to make sure that we are very diligent in how we review those and pick the highest return projects that are going to have the most impact. And thankfully we have a nice backlog of those. But as we go into a market that may be a little bit more with a little more turmoil, I think that we've demonstrated both back in the 2016 period and in and around 2020 that we've been able to flex capital if necessary. We have a portion, about a billion dollars, of our capital that we call routine growth. It's very driven by producer activity. So to the extent that producer activity declines, we can rein that in pretty dramatically and quickly. There's discretionary capital. I mean, there are certain things that we don't have to do. We don't have to repave a parking lot. We don't have to paint or we can delay painting tanks for a year or two if we need to. Those things that in no way jeopardize safety or the environment or anything, but just as more mindful of where we are from a capital standpoint. So we are continually looking at what we could do if we needed to. And that's balanced against the backlog of great opportunities here in each of the businesses. And we've really had to start to put a hierarchy and make sure that we're focusing our dollars on the highest return, being mindful that we need to continue to reduce our debt from the acquisitions. Stay on our plan to get to that 3.6 type of level from a debt to EBITDA by the end of 2026. That's our target. And ultimately, we want to keep our debt to EBITDA in and around three and a half times. That is in an area that the rating agencies seem to be very comfortable. Actually have put out some dialogue if we get to that range about even potentially strengthening the credit rating. So we think we have a good balance, but there are a lot of moving parts that we got to make sure that we keep mindful of all of them.
E
Eve Seagull57:06
Yeah. But you also brought back stock and you raised the dividend.
W
Walter Hulse57:10
Yeah, we've said that we want to keep a dividend in that three and a half to four percent dividend growth range. We always want to make sure that we have our dividend growth well below our earnings growth. We want to be able to create, we've worked very hard to get our payout ratio or earnings to dividends ratio down. Back under the MLP model, that was over 100%. Now we are shooting at sub 80% as we go forward, and that frees up cash flow to invest in the business. And we did make a commitment to go out and look at stock buybacks. That was prior to the Enlink transaction. So as we look at our opportunity set, while that's still something that we want to entertain and we are going to generate cash flow to be able to execute towards that plan, it does push out the time horizon a little bit because of some of these opportunities to create synergies with Enlink. We may need to dedicate a little bit of capital there, but ultimately we're getting ourselves to a situation where we're building in enormous operating leverage that will generate very significant cash flow. And we want to be in a position to use that for dividend increases, stock buybacks as we move forward.
E
Eve Seagull58:49
Terrific. I'll try to be honest. My last question is, is there anything that is top of mind that we missed? But the penultimate question is yes or no. Do you think 2025 will be peak in terms of growth capex for this cycle?
W
Walter Hulse59:19
Yeah, I would say yes.
E
Eve Seagull59:22
Okay, turn it over to you, PS.
P
Pierce Norton59:23
Did we miss? Only every time I get a chance to do one of these, Eve, I want to give the credit to our people. Because we now have a little bit over 6,000 people in this company. And the way that they're coming together is something that I really appreciate. Integrating different companies is something that we're very focused on. When you said what's top of mind, that's top of mind right now. And I'm very pleased with the way our employees are coming together and what they're doing and the excitement level that you feel when you come into the building is contagious. So I really do appreciate that. And thank you for having us on your podcast here today. We appreciate it. Look forward to the next time we're together.
E
Eve Seagull1:00:12
Well, look forward to it and thank you so much. I just can't help myself. I think one of the things that is most underappreciated with investors is company cultures. And you really showcase the culture of Oneok especially with that last statement. So thank you. Thank you both for agreeing to do this. I always enjoy it. So all the best. Take care now. Thank you. Best for you. Yep. Thank you.