Alessandro Foti6:57
Well, first of all, the fact that she is not a banker is perhaps not such a negative thing – I speak against the category, more of a joke than anything else. Certainly a sign of a desire for continuity with what was the great discontinuity brought by Draghi. Because Draghi's great availability was to have the courage to take paths that no one had ever dared to take. A few years ago, thinking about the concept of negative rates, quantitative easing – which in simple terms means a gigantic injection of liquidity into the system – was something no one would ever have imagined, which brought us into unexplored territories, but it was inevitable if we wanted to avoid a possible very great recession at the European level and beyond. Draghi said 'whatever it takes' to defend the euro. He succeeded? I would say yes, because the euro, despite everything, is alive and well and present. And the important thing is that now everyone is quite aware that it is a point of no return, a path marked for the future. How much freedom of maneuver does Lagarde have? How much will Draghi's legacy count? It will count a lot because it is clear that Lagarde... now.
Let's stay on the quality, arrested mister? To the dear, to the financial company, so it wouldn't be known... However, the wealth is certain staticity... Central... exists in this effect also European, Japanese, and also American... This truth that is on the market... In this 10 trillion of Italian wealth, there are 1,500 billion in current accounts. So let's talk a little bit about the wealth of Italians, because this is the aspect. We are famous in the world for many beautiful things, but today maybe it's not the right place to talk about artistic beauties and food, so let's talk a bit more about financial topics. When we talk about finance in Italy, we are famous for two things: first, as I said, we have a lot of debt – our 2,362 billion – and second, we are rich. So, we said real estate wealth, let's leave that aside for a moment, which is about 5,500 billion. Then there is financial wealth, of which 800 billion are the financial holdings of entrepreneurs who have a company and its shares, so we remove that because we cannot consider it savings. Then there is about 1,000 billion, one trillion, which is the severance pay, pension funds, let's remove that. Then we have remaining about 2,600 billion euros of immediately available savings, which is still higher than the total public debt. Of these 2,600 billion, 1,500 lie in current accounts in the form of liquidity. That means essentially that about two-thirds of the Italian public debt is parked in current accounts. So we can summarize: Italians are extraordinary savers, they are excellent savers, but they are poor investors.
It was also said earlier that in a moment of uncertainty like this, with negative rates, with many things that don't work – look at what happened in Lebanon, the tensions in England, Brexit is now becoming a joke, but it's a problem, what is happening in the United States, the lack of growth – well, if I have some money, I keep it in the current account, but are we sure? If the projectionist could send me the second slide, let's start to see. Here we see that we are talking about twenty years, more or less the twentieth anniversary. We tried to represent a little what happened in these 20 years. The dark blue line essentially shows the world economy index, the MSCI World, which groups the main companies in the world. So it's a kind of summary of the world economy. In this index we find many companies that many of you know well: maybe Budweiser, the beer you drink when you go to a pizzeria with friends; Nestlé, which makes Nesquik for breakfast; or Apple; or L'Oréal, which makes creams that ladies use in the evening to become even more beautiful for the next day, and so on. This is the world economy. In these 20 years, with ups and downs, it has given a return of 520 percent, which is truly impressive. The question is: did this happen because the world had no problems? Absolutely not. If we look at the negative events summarized here, we had currency crises, the biggest terrorist attack in living memory, the two most important buildings in the financial capital of the world were destroyed, the failure of one of the largest investment banks, the pandemic that was supposed to block international travel and trade, but no one remembers it anymore. And then earthquakes, wars, devaluations. So, what does this mean? It means that the world by definition is complex, and if it has always been and always will be. The history of centuries is made of wars, plagues, famines. Despite this, the world has grown. So the concept is: at this moment the situation is complex, yes, but not much more complex than it was until the day before yesterday. The other thing we see is that flat line, like a flat encephalogram of someone who has taken a blow to the head, which is essentially what happened to liquidity. Because clearly many savers, continuously worried by this avalanche of negative events, have preferred to stay with their lovely liquidity in the current account. The result: a decrease in purchasing power of 34 percent, because there is a travel companion that accompanies us implacably: inflation, which continues to work while we are here, slowly eroding our savings. To understand: two brothers who had inherited 100 euros at the beginning of this period, if one had invested in the world economy, he would have more than 600; the other, worried day by day about what was happening around him, left them in the current account and now would have 66. The difference between becoming rich and returning poor. That's the difference.
But this is beautiful: 'the difference between becoming rich and returning poor.' It's impressive: 54%, 520% – the difference between the two brothers. In case you might suspect that this was a special 20-year period, maybe it's a law. Put the first slide, even more interesting. Here we have extended the formula. Yes, it's true, we started from the 1970s, and also here, neglecting all the disasters that happened in the meantime – I don't want to make the evening sad by remembering all the negative events – and here the world economy has grown by almost 7,000 percent. So we removed liquidity because we know more, and we reviewed that blue bubble: purchasing power that was lost by 91 percent. So the two brothers: one would find with 100 euros that would become 700,000, and the other would find himself with a handful of flies. We always have the famous safe haven. Well, I believe in them, but not in that order. Safe havens: buy a gold bar or a painting? Let's talk about gold, because gold is the safe haven par excellence. 840% return? But if I compare it to 7,000%, it's normal because a safe haven, as the word says, serves to take shelter. If now I open weather forecasts and they tell me that in four hours there will be a thunderstorm in Perugia, what do I do? I close myself in the house and if possible I don't go out. After the thunderstorm is over, it's desirable that the weather clears up. When it ends, what does he do? He resumes his daily life. Staying systematically invested in a safe haven is like someone who after the thunderstorm remains closed in the house waiting, because he is worried about the next thunderstorm that will come. And there are friends, the bus, with excuse, 'Look, it's nice weather, everything is fine,' what do you do? 'I know that sooner or later another thunderstorm will come, so I stay closed in the house.' And so you spend your whole life in the house, while your friend goes around and clearly takes advantage of the opportunities that the world and real life offer. So, is it that simple to become rich? Just invest in the MSCI World index? It would seem so. But there are some 'buts'. Let's go back to the second slide. Because there are some 'buts'. Actually, let's scroll further, because there is one that I think is even more interesting.
Here we have the 'buts'. This is the fear: when you open the newspaper, and there are the journalists who by definition are there to bring a load of bad news. So one opens the newspaper and sees the headlines. The fear that accompanies us: 'I am surely the one who, when he invests, the market loses 54% or 49% the next day.' Because if tomorrow morning there is a big market correction, I already imagine the headlines: 'Another 29'. But in reality, in the last twenty years, we have had two such corrections: at the beginning of 2000, the market lost 54% (the dot-com bubble), and in 2008, the famous subprime crisis, the market lost 49%. Clearly, if one invested the day before, it's not the most exciting situation. So what prevents us? First, it's evident that one must have a reasonable time horizon. If you invest today and then disinvest when the market falls, you get scared and disinvest the next day, that's a problem. Second, you must have understood the basic concepts: you need to invest in the world economy because one of the main problems is the lack of diversification. The world economy, we are sure it will grow, because in this room there are many entrepreneurs and professionals, and I think it's intuitive to understand why the world economy as a whole cannot but grow. First, there is demographic pressure: in a few years, whether we like it or not, there will be a few billion more people. We shouldn't be fooled by the negative demographics of Italy, but the world is growing. More people, more consumption, more GDP. Second, there is a natural search for well-being: everyone wants to live better. In Italy, a hundred years ago it was normal to have a shared bathroom in the courtyard, and now if someone proposed that lifestyle, you would think it's bizarre. Imagine that in countries that are starting to grow, people finally have the ambition to have their own bathroom, their own sink. So there are companies preparing to produce this stuff in Indonesia. The percentage of Indonesians who brush their teeth with toothpaste every morning? 1%. So, producing toothbrushes, etc. Then there is evolution: every day millions of entrepreneurs wake up with the goal of making their money more than the interest rate they pay to banks. Those who don't succeed are expelled from the market. The world economy is the synthesis of the winners. So, the economy as a whole, with ups and downs, grows. When it can't grow, it finds antibodies. The most recent demonstration is the injection that Mario Draghi made, an antibody that he transmitted to us. So, the important thing is to be diversified, because you don't know where growth will come from. At the beginning of the 1900s, Argentina was among the ten richest countries in the world, now it's not. So, we are discussing whether the world economy will grow next year by 3% or 2.8%, but it will grow. Some countries will grow by 6%, some will shrink, some will grow by 0.%. So, you need to have a clear concept of diversification and time horizon.
And then there is the final obstacle: the main enemy is emotionality. Because we can talk here with these beautiful speeches, and one leaves convinced, 'that's beautiful, I must invest there.' Then when he starts and finds himself in a correction of this kind, and the media bombardment begins, he gets scared and says, 'No, I don't feel like it.' That's the obstacle. If I go down 54%, I don't see the end of the tunnel. Because I don't have the ability, like in the movie Back to the Future, to see in advance what will happen. I see only the negative. Meanwhile, everything is accompanied by catastrophic predictions: 'the world will end.' So this is what prevents us. So what should I do? Did I buy on September 14, 2008, the day Lehman Brothers failed? Let's put it that way. So, how can I respond to this legitimate fear? Everyone says, 'I am sure that the day I invest, I will be the unlucky investor who loses 54% the next day.' If I am blocked by this kind of thing, what we suggest is an approach, and personally I follow it too with my own money – because people ask me: 'What is your approach?' The approach is what we call the 'decumulo' approach. If the projectionist can go ahead a bit, here it is. What does it mean? It's a very simple argument. First, the healthiest thing is to say: 'I have a long-term objective, I invest in the world economy for all these reasons.' But if I don't feel like it because I fear being the one who incurs a loss, we simulated two very unlucky investors who managed to exactly hit a bear market. So the first case: this gentleman invests exactly the day before the crash begins. What happens? In this case, what we suggest is to start investing gradually. Instead of investing immediately all 100 euros, you initially park them in a very low-risk investment, or better yet, a capital-guaranteed insurance product, and then systematically month after month, in an automated manner, you invest in the world economy. So you don't lose the opportunity, but you do it gradually, and any further market declines help us invest at lower rates. So even in a dramatic situation, you still have a return that is clearly higher than the alternative of keeping liquidity in the current account: 4% after 5 years, 7% after 5 years in the two cases. If we go to the next slide, we see that if we extend this strategy longer, we are still talking about two investors who invested at the market peak and took the full brunt of two very heavy corrections comparable to those of 1929. In the end, plus 15% after ten years, and plus 72% in the second case. On the other hand, the alternative would have been leaving the money in the account and seeing your purchasing power decrease by 34%. So this is what it is.