Boliden miljardinvesterar: "Väldigt spännande – höjer guidningen"

Good morning, good morning.

There are two investments that are completely different. One is in Garpenberg, which we might talk a bit more about. It involves building a new shaft in Garpenberg. This shaft is needed over time to access a different part of the mine than the one we are most active in right now. It is also needed to ensure the production rate of 4.5 million tons that we have received a permit for. And it is also needed to keep costs down, actually the ongoing operating costs, because otherwise we would have to transport a lot underground before we get the rock to the surface. So that is one investment. The other investment is very exciting technically. Normally when we invest as a company, we buy someone else's technology and apply it in our facilities. But when it comes to this investment in Rönskär, which involves a new cement replacement product, we have developed the technology ourselves, based on our own patents. And the big advantage is that we take what is slag or waste and through a process we have developed ourselves, turn it into a cement replacement product. That is both good economically, a fine investment in itself, but it is also a fine investment because it removes what would otherwise be waste. And this cement replacement product we produce has a very attractive CO2 footprint compared to traditional cement.

Yes, they are. These were not included in that, and of the total four and a half, about half falls this year. So we are raising the guidance for this year from 15 to 15.5. And the remaining five billion will fall in later years ahead.

I would say that the capex level we have, we will talk more about that at the capital markets day. There is a large portion of that which is replacement investments and environmental investments and other such things that will be included. Then it also has to do with expansion investments. They will run out over time and then you could imagine it going down. I think the company has such an attractive development portfolio, such attractive projects, that we will be able to continue to fill this growth funnel with more projects. But that is not a question for today. However, we will go through today how it looks, and it looks very good on many other projects as well, but they are not mature for a decision in the near term.

No, this is industrial. We call it a demonstration plant, but this is a product that we assess we can sell right away. Then there is some other issue because concrete that this will go into, concrete must be qualified in the construction industry, and this product will need to be qualified. It is not yet. And it's a bit of a chicken and egg problem because we haven't had large enough volumes in the lab activities we have had so far to be able to do sufficiently large tests to check how this concrete works in bridges and other parts. We work very closely with two concrete manufacturers. And this has been released in separate parts earlier with Skanska and with Thomas Concrete Group around this whole thing, where it also gets certified, and our assessment is that we will have this product certified for use in concrete production just in time for this production to start as well.

Yes, that's a very good question that unfortunately I don't have an answer to. It's said that in Garpenberg and other mines, it's quite normal that when you excavate, you get stresses in the rock that need to be released in some way, and then there are small earthquakes. What happened in Garpenberg over the weekend was significantly larger and stronger than normal. So some stress had built up that needed to shake loose properly, and it has more or less subsided, and this morning we were able to send people underground again. So far, they are underground going through all the infrastructure underground, all pump systems, water systems, electrical systems, radio communication, and everything else, and making sure everything works, or if it doesn't, to start repairing if something has broken. And we need to have that in place so we know we can operate the mine safely and then start production. We are not so used to such things happening, so we don't have a real forecast for that. We don't think that very much has broken, and therefore we should be able to start. But as said, uncertainty is best. Now the inspectors will go through there and look carefully so we start this in a controlled and safe manner.

Yes. 10 million maybe.

Yes.

The direct impact is almost zero. We have no business and no direct partners. We buy nothing from there, send nothing there. So for us, it's indirect effects, and of course higher energy prices cost us money, both directly and indirectly through transport and chemicals and such we buy. Then the question is whether that is compensated by us also getting some other revenue. So far, the exchange rate has moved in a positive direction for us around this sulfuric acid price on the world market. It has shot up, which is good for us, and that probably has to do with a lot of sulfuric acid coming from that part of the world that others buy. But the big question for us is where metal prices go, and so far there is surprisingly little movement in metal prices, neither up nor down.

The earnings impact, the short-term one, is not clear yet and it will not affect Q1. We are still in union negotiations, so they are not finished yet, so we don't know exactly how that will land. But as you say, I don't know if I call it threats or reality. We have been very clear in Finland that you can raise mining taxes on existing mines where the money is already invested, then you cannot move your operations. That is one thing. But on the other hand, when you introduce such a tax, you completely kill the incentive to invest, and we had hopes that we could continue in Kevitsa. It is Europe's second largest nickel mine. One third of all nickel in Europe comes from the Kevitsa mine. Nickel is a strategic metal. It's only two years since everyone talked about the Critical Raw Materials Act. Now this, let's say it's not just the mining tax, the mining tax is a big part of it, but the EU has also changed trade rules and changed environmental quality standards in this, so that the mix overall makes this project not viable. And so we have discontinued it. It's not more complicated than that. We do that all the time, and one could say that it was lucky for us that this decision in Finland came before we invested any money in that possible extension. And what we are talking about for those who haven't heard before is that the existing mine and mine plan as invested will last until about 2033-2034. But it is already now in this industry, which is mining industry, where we live with 20-year investment cycles. It is already now that you need to make decisions to invest in order to continue mining operations for maybe another 10 years after 2033 to 2043. That is what this is about, roughly one billion euros we are talking about that is linked to the future investment, and that is the one that is not viable.