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Mathias Kiep
Chief Financial Officer, TUI

TUI CFO Mathias Kiep on share price performance, profitability and dividend

🎥 Jul 21, 2025 📺 DER AKTIONÄR TV ⏱ 10m 👁 3316 views
TUI shares are under pressure: a falling share price, short sellers, and a problem child in the tour operator business – yet hotels and cruises are booming. How long will the turnaround take? Are the rising IT and marketing costs a misstep or a necessary step? Is a spin-off of the profitable divisions imminent, and when will dividends be paid again? In an interview with CFO Mathias Kiep, we discuss strategies, risks, and opportunities for 2025 – including a look at customer travel appetite and the question: Is TUI still competitive? This and much more awaits you in this interview – enjoy watc...
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Transcript (16 segments)
K
Kemper0:04
Dear viewers, welcome back to a new interview on Aktionär TV. Today we are talking about the tourism industry, specifically about the company TUI. The share price has unfortunately not performed as well as investors would have hoped in recent years. Today we have as a guest from the TUI board, Mr. Mathias Kiep, CFO, i.e., Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Kiep, thank you very much for taking the time for us today. We want to start directly: The TUI share is unfortunately one of the most shorted stocks in Germany. What do you say to the investors who are worried about the ongoing price decline and especially to the speculators who are betting on falling TUI stock prices?
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Mathias Kiep0:50
Yes, well, thank you, Mr. Kemper, for the question. And indeed, I think if we strip it down, the feedback has been quite positive in terms of the development in recent months. Since we completed the refinancing, since we also simplified the stock exchange structures, returned to Frankfurt and back to the MDAX, the stock has developed well. But of course, as you mentioned, the absolute level and the share price reaction we saw after our first quarter are not satisfactory. What can we do? We can continue to deliver. We have now had the tenth quarter with an earnings increase, and the tenth quarter, this first quarter, is also contributing very substantially to our full-year guidance. We want to increase operating profit by 7 to 10% this year. These are basically the facts we can offer. The nervousness in the market and the fact that the stock is being shorted—we can hardly assess that. What we see from time to time are also technical effects. The sector—we are the largest company in tourism—is certainly something that is often lumped together in a basket, so to speak. Nevertheless, I think it is important for us to continuously deliver earnings and to actually achieve this earnings increase of 7 to 10% on the 2024 result this year. Yes.
K
Kemper2:26
Do you think that is enough to win back investors, especially when you look at the stock prices of some of your competitors? They are performing much better, and you also keep saying that the numbers look pretty good at your company. Well, we may have slightly slower booking momentum for summer 2025, but we'll get to that in a moment. But what do you say to investors who say, 'Why should I invest in TUI when I have competitors that have been doing better for years?'
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Mathias Kiep2:54
I think we have been hard to compare for years, so to speak. We went through COVID. We invested massively to grow, then got hit by COVID at the wrong time, and we have had to make up for that in recent years. That is clear. Nevertheless, the integrated model we can offer—I think if you look at it, last year was the best result in the company's history, and the first quarter of 2025 was also the best first quarter in the company's history. That speaks for itself, and we can continue to offer that. That is our task. But as you rightly said, the stock price is still lagging behind. But now we are looking at something else: the hotel division and the cruise division. Both are parts of the company that are running profitably. The tour operator business, markets, and airlines remain the problem child. Why can't we make this core business more profitable?
Yes, I just mentioned the hotel and cruise division. Have you ever thought internally or on the board about spinning off individual parts of the group and listing them separately on the stock exchange, because you would certainly get a much better valuation? Or I think I can refer to the past. The company has worked hard to bring these two components together, and only through that has it been possible to achieve this strong earnings development in the hotel and cruise areas. This synergy is ultimately decisive for the company. That is the strength that TUI can bring to the table. In short, structurally, nothing will change in the near future. Or, I think that is exactly the core of TUI: as I said, about half of the guests in the product area come from markets and airlines, and this basic utilization that the markets can always provide removes the risk from the products. That is crucial.
K
Kemper6:44
Let's look at the booking figures for 2025, especially for summer. They are currently growing a bit slower than expected. Can we see that the post-COVID boost, where people wanted to travel again, is now starting to weaken a bit? Or what is the reason for the slower booking pace?
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Mathias Kiep7:06
I think the market hasn't changed that much in recent months. We actually see this every season: a very strong start, especially from customers who absolutely wanted a specific product at a specific time, and then the booking curve flattens out to about the level of the previous year, and then towards the departure dates, it accelerates again. This is a pattern we have now seen for the third or fourth season in a row. So the market environment is competitive and it certainly has no tailwind, as we always say, but it is not particularly worrying either. On the contrary, I believe that all the data we have, and what we see overall, and the first quarter also shows, is that significantly more customers want to travel than was the case a year ago, and there is even a willingness to pay more despite the market environment.
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Kemper8:10
Well, nowadays, in the online age where you can easily book a trip online, you also have a huge number of competitors. Is there a strategy to possibly differentiate yourself better? Is a big advertising campaign planned?
M
Mathias Kiep8:24
Planned? I think that the TUI brand, which is very decisive for the company to function well on all channels, we need to continue to nurture and maintain it, whether through brand campaigns or campaigns to generate bookings. I think that is crucial, as you mentioned.
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Kemper8:44
Then let's look at the investor side again. TUI used to pay a dividend. When can we possibly expect a dividend again?
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Mathias Kiep8:53
Yes, we have clearly communicated that at the end of the year, when we publish our full-year figures for 2025, we will also disclose our strategy in this regard. But first, we still have some homework to do. Based on that, we can have the right discussions internally and then present a package of what the future could look like. What homework? If I may ask: we still have the rating agency issue open. We have very pleasingly received a double B from Fitch. Two other agencies that have been involved with us for a longer time are still pending. We want to wait for that first and then, based on that, enter into discussions with the Supervisory Board.
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Kemper9:36
Finally, once again the question: How do you see the opportunities for your company in 2025?
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Mathias Kiep9:44
The market remains good. The topic of vacation travel is, at the end of the day, a privileged situation. I always tell the teams that there is demand at least at the level of last year, if not more, and there is a willingness to pay. That means, when I look at our key performance indicators in the product area in particular, basically every indicator is better than what we saw a year ago. Based on that, I think we have good ingredients. As the first quarter showed, we can demonstrate this 7 to 10% earnings increase by the end of the year.
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Kemper10:20
Yes, well, then I thank you very much for the conversation. But I have to add one more question: Where are you going on vacation this year, Mr. Kiep?
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Mathias Kiep10:27
Well, that is the most important question. Indeed, my family and I are going to Turkey. To Turkey.
K
Kemper10:32
Good, Mr. Kiep, I thank you very much for the interview. I think the investors can take away a lot. I hope we will see each other again in the future. And dear viewers, I can only say thank you for listening. All further developments on TUI can be found on aktionaer.de or in the Aktionär magazine. Thank you for today's interview.