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Bruce Ferguson
Finance Director, Hunting

Hunting PLC - Capital Markets Day 2023

🎥 Sep 07, 2023 📺 HuntingPLC ⏱ 181m 👁 9678 views
We are hunting. We deliver sustainable value for our stakeholders through our sector-leading products and Technology.
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Transcript (109 segments)
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Narrator0:12
Thank you. We are hunting. We deliver sustainable value for our stakeholders through our sector-leading products and technology. The world of energy is changing, and so are we. Welcome to Hunting 2030. Our 2030 strategy leverages our precision engineering expertise from our core markets of energy and oil and gas to further develop new revenue streams in non-oil and gas and energy transition markets. This will lead to sustainable growth in profits and cash flows, which will support our shareholder returns to the end of the decade. We will seize the opportunities that arise from the energy transition with technology we're manufacturing now, while generating growth, cash flow, and profits from our core energy businesses. All of this will fund growth and shareholder returns as we expand into these new and exciting areas. The strategy for the company today is to establish a business that has long-term consistent returns for our shareholders. We're going to do that by focusing on our core oil and gas business. On the other side of our strategy, it is to diversify more into things like the energy transition, and then lastly, it's growing our business in areas such as aerospace and defense, where we see a lot of growth opportunities in the future. We have a very broad, diversified group of products that we think will generate great returns in the future for the company. We'll do this by utilizing our unique skills, skill and knowledge of advanced manufacturing and materials.
Our products do their job no matter the circumstances or environment. Our operations are driven by quality-assured products, supported by a strong HSC policy that ensures the health and safety of employees, customers, and vendors, while consciously integrating environmental matters into all business practices. When I look back over the history of Hunting, which will be 150 years old next year, one of the key strengths of our company has been how agile we've been over the many, many decades that we've been in business to adapt to the markets out there today, which allowed us to continue to give good returns to our shareholders. Hunting success boils down to its people, and the key to our success has been and will always be our people. Number one is our way that we can innovate and develop new products, and number two is our ability to be international and service our customers regardless of what market that they're in. We hold over 500 patents and trademarks, and the products are our intellectual property. Our wide portfolio of products includes the manufacture of perforating systems, oil country tubular goods and accessories, advanced manufacturing, and subsea technologies. All of this is underpinned by the Hunting Mark of Quality that enables our customers to deliver their work not only faster but safer too.
We have a diverse and global customer base, and we're global too. Hunting has operating sites in countries across the world and is opening new or bigger facilities in India and Dubai to support the strong growth projected in these regions. Why are we launching our 2030 strategy? As we know that our products and service enhance our customers' operations in many different sectors, our expertise and ethos is valued in other industries, and we are pursuing these opportunities. In fact, we're already operating in these new markets. The key investment proposition is we want to return value to shareholders through having a steadier stream of revenue and profits through the long term, and that is a result of diversification of our product offering, our geographic reach, and our continued innovation of new products. Our order book looks really healthy. The health of the order book reflects our strong position in areas such as subsea, international business, global footprint, and a wide suite of products. It's a great time for Hunting. We're going to generate some great returns over the next decade, and we're looking forward to returning some of that cash back to our shareholders in the future. I wish I had another 20 years to work at Hunting, but it's an exciting place to be, and it's an exciting time for Hunting. Hunting — we're looking to the future. We're optimistic about where we are headed. We are evolving. We are transforming, and we're doing it now. We are Hunting. We are Hunting. We are Hunting. We are Hunting. We are Hunting.
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Jim6:27
So, as I said in my last talk, there we are Hunting, and we are thrilled that you are here today to take part and listen to our presentation and talk about Hunting 2030. When I look at the keywords starting off this thing, two things to focus on you're going to hear a lot about today. One of them is going to be precision engineering, because we really need to get the message across that what we do is provide mission-critical parts with high levels of technology and develop technology for, in my opinion, the most critical industry on Earth, which is the energy industry. And then the key word: changing. Next year, as we said, Hunting will be 150 years old, and through that time it has changed dramatically with the times. When you look at going through world wars and COVID and everything that has happened over that time period, in our DNA is the word changing. And today you're going to see what I think is a different Hunting today than what was just four years ago. So we've made lots of changes. We are adapting to the markets that we serve, and we're going to continue to do that because it's what's going to drive our prosperity. I'm fortunate today to be accompanied by a strong team here of our managers, the team that I work with on a daily basis. When you see these gentlemen, understand that you're looking at over 200 years of industry experience, and we're very proud to have them in our organization. They do a great job daily taking care of our clients and our people. On the people side, I would be remiss without mentioning that I say this through lots of my presentations: I'm proud of everything that our 2,400-plus employee headcount does on a daily basis to make this company move forward. In terms of the road map and what we want to try to get across today, obviously we want to talk about our technology. You're going to have a lot of different things going on here as far as numbers, analysis, and deep dive into things, but our main message is: what is the technology, what makes you different today than a couple years ago, and where do you see the future in a different direction to travel? We have strong market fundamentals, probably the best that I've seen in a long, long time, definitely the best I've seen in 10 years. When you look at things like a current supply-demand imbalance, what's going on in the global markets with LNG, and also in the non-core business — there's no non-core — the non-oil-and-gas businesses like aerospace and defense, the rapid growth there in the space industry, and new opportunities in energy transition. We're going to talk about revenue growth accelerating dramatically. We've had a big bump in improvement obviously out of COVID, and from '22 into '23 we're going to show you a pathway on how we're going to do more of that, and we're going to generate a lot more free cash flow and returns for our investors. A lot of those things are going to be handled by Bruce later on. There's an agenda in your book that you all saw. We're going to go through the first part, have questions and answers and a coffee break, and then we can follow up with a finish and then final questions and answers. Just to kind of show you the lay of the land of what we're doing.
So one of the things we want to focus on today is: how are we going to get to that growth from where we're at today, especially post-COVID? And I have to tell you all, and some of you have shared this with me personally, that the COVID downturn was literally the worst that I saw in my 35 years in this industry. We went with such huge levels of unknown in how to run a business, market conditions, and the whole bit. I'm glad those days are behind us, and the team at Hunting I feel did an exceptional job in managing through that. But through that time period as well, we were able to look at our business and make some dramatic changes. So there's guidance up there that we've guided for '23. We're having a good year right now. Backlogs are strong. Business is going extremely well. I can tell you August was a good month for the company as we continue to improve. But we need to highlight some of the things like the significant restructuring efforts that we did. We looked at our cost bases hard. We closed facilities we didn't need, such as manufacturing in Canada. We looked at assets that were highly capital-intensive, like the OCTG business in Aberdeen, like our drilling tools business that we had in the U.S. We sold the OCTG business. We put the drilling tools business into a joint venture that is delivering profits for us now. So we looked consistently at ways to restructure the business and make it leaner. We're not done with that; there's more to come. And you just saw a press release a couple weeks ago when we talked about getting out of the E&P business, legacy assets moving on from all of that. So we have been focused on taking care of our business and how to right-size it, but we've done it in a very prudent way. And if you look at our revenue graphs that we're talking about in '23, keep in mind — I have to remind people a couple times, and you'll hear from me — this is without us being in the pipe business in Canada and the pipe business in the North Sea, basically the UK, which drove a lot of higher revenue numbers. We're going to go in and talk about all of our businesses again. I've got a great team here to talk to you all about that. Our perforating systems we continue to be a market leader in that area. Subsea — one area that we can show that when we talk about cost cutting and transformation, we also made two acquisitions, and you're going to hear some exciting things from Dane today about that. OCTG — a great business for us. I want to remind everybody a little history: Hunting actually started in the oilfield service business in the 1960s, and when they did that back in Great Yarmouth — and Richard's here can vouch for that — it was OCTG related. So we're re-emphasizing that business, but we're doing it in a way where we are enhancing the margins of that business based on how we're managing our capital. Energy transition — Sean O'Shea, who's been with the company a long time through different product lines, he's taken the lead on that. I think you're going to find some very interesting information on that. Advanced manufacturing from Scott — great portfolio of products that we have. But one of the things that we did not put up here that we want to highlight: Hunting has traditionally been a company people want to partner with. So if you look at things that we did in investments in the last couple years — whether it's with Well Data Labs to understand analytics and things downhole, Cumberland in 3D printing, the Rival Venture for our drilling tools business, Organic Oil Recovery, our new Jindal relationship that I'm going to India in a couple of days to kick off — you're seeing a trend there where people want to work with Hunting. And to us, that's a strength that you can't write down on a P&L statement, but it delivers the returns to us down the road. Real quick: strategy on driving cash flow. You'll see more details on this later. These are compounded annual growth rates and what we're expecting. You'll see a big green box there talking about energy transition. Those are numbers showing why we think that is reality, not a pipe dream. We're going to show you how we're going to benefit from all of that. The little graph showing the targeted revenue growth to get to two billion dollars — we believe we can be there or we wouldn't put it up on this screen. One of the things: you have the product lines, but there's also a part of this which is M&A. And as I mentioned, I can't just go down to the M&A store and take three of these and one subsea. We're going to be very disciplined in how we look at all this. We're going to be rigorous in how we analyze the businesses, and we want to bring in bolt-on products that'll have technology. Again, you're going to hear that a lot because that's how you get paid the best margins — with technology. IP, other than our people — and actually our people are more important because they drive all that — but the IP is what differentiates us from our competition out there. During the downturn of COVID, it was one area that was off limits. We did no cutting there as far as our engineering goes, our product development. And some of that product development today is playing out with Jason on the Titan side, with Sean on the energy transition model. You're going to see how that works. But we believe it is a competitive advantage, it provides us market leadership, and it enhances our relationship with clients. Globally today, oil and gas is an international business, which it has been for a long, long time. We're there in key markets from an international footprint point of view. You'll hear a little bit more about that coming up from Daniel, especially about our new footprint in India that we're excited about. But we have a great location footprint to service our clients. The latest is we've just opened an office in Brazil, and we're also looking at tomorrow. So you see where we're at. And if you look at those countries in green that are marked there, the ones that are taking a more proactive approach to the energy transition mainly do because rich countries can afford it, let's be honest. The other ones can't. But you've got government money going into backing credits, backing loans. That money is going to be spent, and I want to make sure we get our share of that. You're going to hear more about that today.
Our customer list — I'm proud and thankful for this. You'll see a lot of different customers here on different industries, from people like JGC Hitachi, which is nuclear, to our space and rocket people, to the traditional oil and gas companies and major service companies. All blue chip customers. But I can honestly tell you there's probably 800 more these days that we do business with. So there's a huge amount of clients globally, and Hunting's name is gold when it comes to client relationships. ESG — on this slide we're showing about our safety and our incident rate for quality. If you can't do it without making rejects, you're never going to make any money. So that's why we're highlighting the fact that our reject rate is hardly measurable. And on the safety side, that is driven by our culture. You're going to see that in two slides: the strong culture of Hunting doing things the right way, doing it in a safe way. I can actually tell you that year to date our incident rate is down to 0.65, which is real credit to our operations people because we've had to rehire, bring people back in, and that's usually a very challenging environment to make sure you're keeping people safe. On the other slide regarding energy and emissions on ESG, I tell people that I have the fortune of having been in this company a long time, but ESG is really nothing new. This company has taken the tenets of ESG way before BlackRock people were talking about ESG out there. We took our business seriously on how we took care of our people and the environment and just did things the right way. So talking about market fundamentals now. We see oil demand — I know everybody read the article yesterday about this decade being the peak in oil and natural gas. I just do not believe that, and there's a lot of others that don't. Today from 102, we're already up to 103 million barrels a day of consumption, and I think that is only going to accelerate as people have demands for GDP to increase, for a global population that needs to leave poverty. And yes, there's going to be a lot of energy transition work on. But I go by one statistic I heard a while back: 10 years ago, 82% of the energy mix was oil and natural gas. Trillions of dollars later, 10 years passed, it's still 82% of the energy mix. So I listened yesterday about demand for jet fuel, aviation. This is just not going away, especially if you look at LNG as a bridge fuel too. Our product — whether it's oil or natural gas, it doesn't matter. Deep water — Dane's going to give you an update more on that, but that is one area that we're extremely excited about our performance in the future. 70% of the world's covered by water; there's huge reserves there. The economics are fantastic at these price levels, and we see that growing. Energy transition — I just talked about, and you'll see more details on that. But it is becoming a real deal, and it's something that people need to understand. 25 years ago, Hunting could have said we were in energy transition because we were in Indonesia, the Philippines, Southern California, Iceland of all places, supplying product for geothermal applications. And then non-oil-and-gas: exciting growth opportunities. All you have to do is listen to Airbus or Boeing talk about the backlogs in the jet business right now. The airplane business — we benefit from that. We make components that go on these planes, as well as fighter jets, as well as submarines, as well as satellite works. So a lot of points there to talk about, and a lot of new opportunities opening up daily. I've pretty much covered this. I'm not going to spend a lot of time on it. Oil and gas demand, industry capex — lower left, upper right — going in the right directions. That's going to be a core part of our performance going forward. The underinvestment — this slide is probably more important than a lot of them. If you look at the red box which talks about the gap that we're seeing in supply and demand, just think to yourself that in this period of time we need to bring two brand new Saudi Arabias online. That's the kind of intensity that you're looking at to fill these supply gaps. If you look at the graph on the right, it's a production graph in the Permian Basin. One of the things we'll talk about later in our OCTG business — this treadmill isn't stopping. Even if companies want to have flat production levels, they still are going to have to drill like crazy just to keep that production flat due to the rapid depletion in these unconventional reservoirs that are being tapped today. Deepwater — booming market. More to come. Deepwater rig rates are soaring, availability is getting tight. Customers are looking now down the road at rigs for '27-'28. We see lots of projects on the horizon, and we're going to be there for those. Carbon capture — my thing on carbon capture is you've just had Occidental award a billion-dollar loan guarantee from the U.S. government for carbon capture. You had Exxon just make a six-billion-dollar bet by buying Denbury. It's all related to carbon capture. So a lot of what we think is good upside for that.
On the non-oil-and-gas side of the business, this slide is up here really just to show the direction of travel. There's lots of new products that we get an opportunity to build and work on on a daily basis as this business continues to expand. Space has been really exciting. Scott will talk more details on that, but it's the direction of travel. Opportunities are growing by the day, and we've got the assets in place to take advantage of that. So, resilient long-term strategy, growth, and what are we going to do? I think we've covered it all with sustainability, what our goals are there. The key is we want to reduce the reliance and we want this business to be more investable throughout the cycle. That means delivering growth, good cash flow, and returns back to our clients, preferably in the form of increased dividends. On the core competencies, it goes back to the basics of being the best manufacturers in the world. Precision engineering: I tell people that we deal with tolerances that are sometimes half or one-tenth the thickness of a hair. That's what we're working on for some of these parts that we make. Our expertise in metallurgy plays into what we've done on OCTG as well as what's going to happen in carbon capture. All of those are a touch point in the middle, and it's driven by an exceptional staff of people that do this on a daily basis for us. So again, a long strategic focus, compelling manufacturing operations. We're going to continue to talk about the IP. To me, that's the number one thing. Too many people in this industry do not value or appreciate the expertise and the technological challenges associated with what we do. The fact that people can drill in 5,000 feet of water, and the fact that we actually make products that service something 5,000 feet in water or many, many miles above the atmosphere — we like to play in all of those. We've already talked about our resilience, customer base, all that has been touched. But those are just the key points right now, and I'm going to pass it on to Jason now to talk about perforating systems.
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Jason23:24
Thank you, Jim. Hi, can everybody hear me okay? So today I get to talk a little about Titan, which is near and dear to my heart. I've been in perforating quite a long time, and I get to explain about a business that's quite fun. I'm probably the only one here that gets paid to blow things up every day, right? It's quite fun. Titan's been in the business since 1966. It started off as a small machine shop in Pampa, Texas. Throughout the years it grew and acquired some businesses: shaped charges, detonators, electronics, switches along the way — mechanical and electronics. In 2011, Hunting acquired Titan, and then of course we kept expanding from there. We built up our Dekor facility just about three years ago. We also made our own detonators about two years ago and spent money to build our capacity through 11 million charges per year — that's the largest capacity in the oilfield space for building shaped charges around the world. So our core value has always been technology. What I'll try to explain to you is that everything we do is around R&D, and technology moves. One thing that we've done very well is that we're able to talk to our customers at the E&P level, at the service level, and we have a very broad customer base. So we're able to gather ideas, their needs, and we transform that into our road map, into our R&D road map. From there, what I'll talk about in the next couple slides is that I want to grow, and we will grow in a North American market. I think there's a lot of questions around how North America land is going to be in the next couple of years. We project a flat market, but we'll still gain market share through technology. We'll show these upcoming products that we're getting ready to release that are going to be quite interesting as the trends are changing in the pump-down market. That's one way that we're going to grow. Another option that we have is also international markets. As you can see, international is growing. That's good for us. The techniques used in North America land are becoming more and more prevalent in the international space — like Argentina, Saudi Arabia, China — they have a lot of stages going on right now. So we have our products because we lead in that technology in the U.S. People respect the Hunting name for this, so we're very much leaders in the international space right now. So two key things: we will grow through market share in North America, and we'll continue on the pace being market leaders in technology for that conventional to pump-down space on the international side.
What is perforating? What's completions? What does Titan do? I'll talk a little bit about the technology itself without going through too much detail. Essentially, most wells are drilled first — make a big hole in the ground. You put in some pipe that Scott and Daniel make. You cement it. Then we come in and we blow it up. We put holes in it to extract the liquids or the gas coming out. In the carbon capture case, we put liquids back into the reservoir, so it goes both ways. There are mainly two types of perforating completions. Type one is conventional, which is mostly vertical, and that's been the traditional way to do things. Even in U.S. land, that's where they used to be done. They're still very popular in the international space right now. But since the type of rock or the formations that are available in the U.S. are much tighter, they don't give up the oil that easily. They had to drill horizontal, they perforate, they isolate, they frack, and it helps to extract the oil better overall. The main difference between the two is that the type of completion for unconventional is extremely high volume because you've got to make a lot of holes. One well is about 50 to 60 stages, and it's growing every year. Every single stage requires at least 7 to 15 guns per stage. As the laterals grow even longer, you have to apply more and more shaped charges and more guns to each well. As Jim showed you earlier, the depletion rate is getting worse, so that means you have to keep drilling the wells to produce more or to recomplete wells. And when you recomplete, we get in there too. You put pipe down, you cement, we come back and we perforate. So we get the business on both sides essentially. So we're playing both markets. I'll talk a little more about that in a second. So I told you about the different types of completions. Now I'll talk about the technology that Titan has done in the past 10, 15 years or so. You look at the original type of perforating systems for conventional market: people relied on the shaped charge performance because that's all you had to make the best connection to the reservoir to extract as much oil. As time went on, the type of charges going into these guns are very different because we're able to design our own charges that go into our own gun design, to fine-tune each charge very differently. The latest generation we have is called EcoFractal P that will go into our H4 system, which is a self-orienting system. That is the coming trend in North America that will migrate into international. That shaped charge is the most accurate hole size available on the market right now. Then, of course, the brains behind this: the instrumentation. That used to be just a mechanical switch. The most you could do was maybe four to five guns per stage. Now we hold a record in Canada to shoot 56 guns in one stage — that's the highest anyone's ever done. This technology has enabled us to put every single switch onto every component inside the gun string, so that enables constant communication downhole all the time. Then the gun itself: you look at the traditional perforating gun, they call it a dumb gun. It's just a carrier that puts the stuff downhole. But now because of the advent of fracking in the U.S., you have to do things very efficiently. Can you imagine losing just one gun per stage? That's about 50 stages per well — a lot of inefficient downtime. So these guns have come to be very reliable. The next evolution you'll see is the self-orienting gun, which will orient the gun in a certain direction downhole. And of course, a lot of service companies are looking for automation at the well site. Automation not just to automate, they're trying to combine services together, which is pumping and wireline together, to save time and save asset costs. A lot of them are already starting to get rid of their wireline trucks and putting the wireline unit onto the frack pump right now. So all this plays very well into Titan's portfolio because we own IP on perforating through automation.
This is just a slide to sort of compare the landscape that we have to deal with every day. Of course, we have a lot of competitors, but we do pride ourselves in our technology and the breadth of our portfolio. We're more than just a gun shop; we provide everything from instrumentation to downhole tools, everything. As you can see, this separates us from everybody else because we're able to deliver products in certain areas that other people can't. If something's down in the U.S. market, I'll go international and sell components. I'm able to do that. Certain companies can't do that. Our systems are designed to be modular. We're probably the only company that has a modular system right now that's automated, so we're able to sell certain pieces internationally where it doesn't make sense to sell the whole gun. And again, we make all the explosives. We sell to everybody — we sell to our competitors, we sell to our customers. Everybody is a customer to us. We also have a lot of DCs in the U.S. market and Canada. We have about 12 right now overall, and that enables us to save costs for our customers because that last mile of explosives is very expensive to ship from one center all the way to the location. So we're located in all the major basins around the world. On top of that, we also leverage Hunting's distribution footprint overseas. And we're vertical: we control our own supply chain quite a bit. We use Scott's manufacturing and those switches, we machine all of our own components. Of course, we buy guns from Daniel once in a while in China. Let's talk a little about the latest survey. Kimberlite is the industry survey, and this survey is directed towards E&P customers only. They didn't invite service companies for taking this survey. For those of you that know this, the numbers represent the amount of times that an E&P employer or company said that that was what they wanted. When they asked the questions, E&P companies, 49 of them responded that Hunting Titan was the preferred shaped charge supplier. They also responded 30 times that we were the preferred perforating guns. As you see, a lot of our competition is also our customers — Halliburton is in there too. But this is only U.S. land, so this shows how well respected we are in U.S. land. Our brand name is very strong. In addition to industry surveys, we also perform our own surveys. We asked the question of our customers — the service companies along with E&P's — what is valuable to them. Of course, the top five items are always the same. Because they know that we have technology, they have improved efficiency at the wellsite because they use our products. Our control fire switch has been shot 12 million times or more without safety incident. I guess that goes back to Scott's very well-tuned electronics manufacturing for us. He's able to apply what he's learned for medical and military-grade electronics to build a very reliable switch for us. Delivery: I mentioned earlier that we have about 12 DC's out there and also use Hunting's distribution footprint overseas. Customer support: we probably have one of the largest tech support out there for products. We have 24 people on staff to train our customers, to go to the website with them, to launch new products, walk them through all the technical details. The key to our leadership is our technology. We spent a lot of time developing products. We've built over 185 patents, we have 50 pending. And of course, all this means nothing without actual sales. So we always understand what the customer needs all the time. We try to understand and develop our road map around what we gather from them. This is the upcoming trend for us: oriented perforating is going to be the new trend, in my belief. Safety automation — we have a new product launching just for that. I'll talk about that here in a second.
This is a list of our customers. I talked a lot about the differentiation that we do between E&P's and service companies, but the main thing I want you guys to take away from this is that we deal with both. So we understand both of their needs, not just one side of the equation. So we plan to grow. Flat market maybe, maybe a little bit next year. We still plan to grow through launching new technologies which are slated to come out later this year and early next year. We market both to our wireline companies and also to E&P's. In the past, we did not go to E&P's to talk to them much, but we relied on our service providers to go talk to them about our technology. And a lot of times they don't understand that too well, so we have to go there with them now. We have very good partnerships with our wireline companies, and we go together to the E&P offices to discuss new technologies and get adopted into their programs. By doing that, it doesn't matter who the wireline company is because it's in the program. So they can invite any wireline company out there to run that job. We sell components, we sell systems, we sell pre-loaded guns. It depends on the market you're in. Internationally, selling components has a bit better shipability, lower cost, better margins, and we tend to own the technology. In international markets, we sell the brains of the system, whereas in the U.S. we sell complete systems fully loaded with charges, and in Canada we sell guns so the wireline companies can load themselves. So we're flexible enough. Our systems are designed to be modular — that's a key difference. I'll talk a lot more about the trend on the right-hand side of the slide. We're seeing this trend quite a bit with the E&P's these days and especially the fully integrated service companies. We're seeing that they're trying to get rid of the wireline truck itself. The reason they're doing this is first of all they save on assets. This will take time because they have to depreciate those trucks over time, but essentially they're trying to combine the intelligence of fracking and shooting at the same time. To do this, you require two things: IP on the pumping side — automated pumping, and IP on automatic shooting. So we have the IP on automatic shooting, and we'll also try to be independent of the automated pumping also, so we're trying to tie it together. We are partnering with some large service companies right now, and they're running this now. You can see it on LinkedIn all the time — I think you guys know who that is. And this is what I mentioned earlier: this is a new technology, the Perf Plus. This integrates our control fire switches into the control system of frac pumps which has automation — that's key. On the international side, I mentioned earlier that the type of completion started happening now internationally. They are running a lot more unconventionals these days. So this is a graph of the major stages around the world. China has the largest, Argentina second largest, but Saudi Arabia plans to triple their number of frac stages in two years. Just them alone is going to catch up to Argentina pretty soon. So they see the benefits of pump-down work: better extraction and the cost coming down where they can do it now versus before. That I'd like to leave as a couple key points. Titan's always been about technology. It will always keep investing in our engineering staff, and we'll develop new things as the market changes. Secondly, what we're seeing is the horizontal integration, data collection, automation at the well site — all that plays very well into our portfolio. And of course, the last part is the international increases in the pump-down market technique. Then lastly, I think that Jim said that liquids and natural gas are going to be around a while, and you need to make a hole. We have the parts to make the hole. Thank you, and I'll turn it to Dane, who'll talk about subsea.
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Dane Tipton40:38
Well, good afternoon. It's great to see everybody. I know when we were out in the hallway a little bit ago, I was asked if much had changed over the last few years, and I just almost chuckled because how excited I am to share all this with you. A lot has changed with our subsea business over the last three years. And so it's a pleasure to have all y'all here. Over this next session, I'll be walking you through the Hunting Subsea Technologies key strategic growth initiatives. These are focused on achieving $250 million top-line revenue while delivering a solid cash flow position for Hunting as investors. I'm Dane Tipton, the managing director of our Subsea Technologies business. Now, the environment that we operate in is challenging. The deepwater market is filled with long-term, extremely profitable opportunities. As I step you through the product lines, I'm confident that you'll see that our leadership position is focused on driving value through innovation. Then I'll couple this with our investment into multiple key strategic themes. These strategic themes have given us a diverse portfolio that delivers cash throughout the entire life cycle of the asset. From there, I'll shift and talk about our growing customer base. This customer base has helped us accelerate our top-line growth as evidenced since 2021. And then I'll tie it all together with something I call the lifetime value of an opportunity. Here you'll see that the financial portfolio that we're building in Subsea Technologies goes way beyond the initial sale of any given project. As you can tell, subsea is a small part of the Hunting portfolio today, but my goal today is to prove to you that we are positioned to scale. Now, if you notice the deepwater chart in the upper right-hand corner, focus specifically on 2010 to 2014, then shift over to where we are today through 2028. You can practically put these charts on top of each other. There is substantial capital investment going on in the deepwater offshore. Just recently this week, over $71 billion investment deepwater offshore sanctioning, expectations to be up to $110 billion next year and throughout 2028. Massive amounts of investment in the greenfield arena, but at the same time we're seeing the brownfield arena is growing and getting a tremendous amount of attention. Rarely do these two come into alignment with each other. If you look at the chart in the bottom right-hand corner, that's subsea tree demand. Almost by the end of the year, the expectation is 300 subsea trees will be on order with another 300 planned year over year throughout 2027. Tremendous amount of capital investment. And then in parallel to this, we see the SURF arena — that stands for subsea umbilical, risers, and flow lines. That arena is growing at an incredible rate also, which tells us new production facilities and retrofit opportunities are coming online. All of this capital investment that we're seeing is creating an extremely tight supply and demand balance. And what does that do for us? It drives margin growth. It's perfect for us. So these tailwinds that we're feeling, this capital investment that we're seeing, this tight supply and demand relationship — the economics are outstanding for deepwater investment. Now, our Subsea Technologies business has three core platforms. The first initial entry into subsea was a business that specializes in developing critical components that bolt into our customers' deepwater control systems. Then our next acquisition focused on SURF technology — again, subsea umbilical, risers, and flow lines. Think about the ocean floor: the riser coming up to the floating production facility, that critical connection between the two is what we specialize in. And then the latest acquisition brought three new technologies to us: tie-back and production technology, intervention services, and decommissioning services. So what we've built here is a dynamic, technology-driven business that has the ability today to sell into subsea production systems, subsea distribution systems, subsea riser, flow line, and connection systems, as well as two great service offerings with intervention and decommissioning. Now, as I step you through each one of these core product lines, you'll...
Definitely see the diversity in them without a doubt, but what I want you to focus on is the growth accelerator. This growth accelerator is our ability to sell into multiple market touch points. That difference right there, that growth accelerator, is what will lead to substantial material growth. Now, our first entry into subsea: the company really was founded on the metal seal hydraulic coupling. Think in terms on the ocean floor, thousands of control lines to bring a project online and operated. So this is opening, closing valves, shifting sleeves, locking and unlocking connectors, testing seals, all of these different functions. Just a tree alone has about 250 connections on it. To bring it online is about another 250. So every well site, a solid 500 connections. These simple connections, that's what we own and we own that entire space. 1986 first installation offshore, 37 years of field history, well over 2 million installations globally, zero field failures to date. The product line is solid. We have a dominant market position and the tier with the tier one OEMs. Then our next acquisition in 2019 was with Arconix RTI titanium stress joint business. Now this business had basically been mothballed off to the side. We bought the assets, bolted on a new strategy focused specifically on the global FPSO arena. Now FPSO, floating production storage and offloading, I'm sorry, apologize, it's the facility that you see right there pictured right now. Why did we pick this arena? Well, first off, the majority of all new facilities coming online are FPSOs, so it just makes sense. But also, RTI had chosen to just market this equipment to the Gulf of Mexico at that time. There weren't any FPSOs in the Gulf of Mexico. So we knew that we could take Hunting's global footprint and immediately scale this business globally. And then third, the competing product created multiple operational issues for the oil company. First, the competing product had to be submerged below the water line due to the elastomer seals. This protected it from a potential environmental hazard, right? In order to accomplish this, the oil company had to keep more reserves in the FPSO, keep it ballast down, which means less product available for sale. Huge issue. Second, to install or do the periodic maintenance due to these seals, personnel would be dropped off the side of the FPSO all the way down to the water line. Extremely dangerous HSE situation. And then think about the weather offshore, very, very challenging. Not only was it a dangerous situation, but it creates a very small operating window for the oil company. The titanium stress joint immediately alleviated all of these operational issues. The evidence is in the success. In the last 24 months, we've booked over $120 million worth of titanium stress joints. Similar to the hydraulic coupling, first installed in 1996, well over 200 installations, zero field failures. The product line is solid, but the acquisition for Hunting has been outstanding. Then our latest acquisition in 2020 was with a little company called Empro out of Aberdeen. And they brought with us three key technologies. The first being FAM, flow access module. And I would like you to think about an access point. Right, this is an access point that you're giving the operator within the production flow loop. So think in terms of the subsea tree production flow loop all the way over to the production manifold. What this access point does is it gives the operator the ability to simply plug in technology when they need it. Now I know that seems extremely simple, but it drastically changes field economics. All of this technology over the years has been added to the subsea tree, which drastically has changed and created an extremely complex subsea tree. Greater capex required, first of all, longer lead times required to first oil. This access point, this proprietary access point, now gives that operator the ability to pull this technology off and simply plug it in whenever they need it. So what we're left with is a standard simple tree. Now for those of you that have been around subsea for a while, we've been talking about this for over 20 years now. Having a standard subsea tree that can be used across the oil company's entire production platform increases their reliability, right? And then on top of it, for that particular field, we've decreased the capex required, we've decreased the lead time required to first oil. We've helped them achieve first oil faster and drastically improve their field economics. What we call this: future proofing. This is future proofing for the oil company. Instead of investing in this technology three, five, eight years before it's ever even needed in the operational realm, they now can shift that capex to the right, get the field producing, generate some profits, get some data back from the production fluids, actually see what they're going to need to use, and then plug in the technology that's needed. Future proofing it truly is system flexibility for the operator. The two other platforms we got with the acquisition: first, flow intervention services, and this is providing really maintenance to the well over the life of the well. And then the other one being decommissioning, and this is specific to attic oil recovery, and this is basically removing the reserves out of production facilities that are due to be decommissioned. Now both of these are service based. We traditionally see contracts three years in length, usually multi-campaign, where it creates an alignment between Hunting and the operator. Ballistic incredible diversity about these two product lines that has me excited about them bringing into the subsea technologies portfolio, because now we have two product lines that can generate revenue, generate profits, generate cash on fields that are already operating 5, 10, 15, 20 years down the road. So these product lines have brought incredible balance to our financial portfolio. Now each of the core platforms that I've talked through obviously are founded on innovation. Today, 160 subsea patents, and the majority of them are all around product development. However, core functional areas like material science, coatings, surface treatments, an incredible depth of welding technology, manufacturing trade secrets. All of this IP, all these trade secrets together have given Hunting a market leading position across all of our core platforms. This market leading position has given us that sustainable competitive advantage. And then on to our customer base. I mentioned early on our growing customer base is helping us accelerate our top line growth. Now our initial subsea company that we had sold directly to the tier one OEMs, right? But with the two new acquisitions, we not only sell to the tier one OEMs, we also sell to the installation contractors. Today we sell to the independent oil companies and the major oil companies. Projects we get involved today in the very initial planning of it, and we stay engaged throughout the entire life of the field. Multiple entry points, multiple opportunities to drive revenue and growth. With the tier ones, I mentioned our goal is to be right up next to them. I mentioned this earlier when we were out in the thing, be right next to them and be that technology partner that they need as they continue to grow into these epic models. But with our new products and services, we have a direct line access to the operators. So in Guyana, Exxon, the POs come from Exxon to Hunting. Shell and Beacon in the Gulf of Mexico. Tolo West Africa, Prio South America. These POs come directly from the operator to Hunting. Now these are all blue chip customers that we are proud and honored to do business with. But our expansive product portfolio has aligned Hunting to be able to sell across what I call the entire customer supply chain. Simply put, we are punching above our weight class with our customer base. Now if we take a look at the opportunity of a deep water asset, and this is relative to Hunting that I'm talking here, we start with the initial order. The initial order is where the manufacturing, installation, and commissioning of the equipment actually happens. We have a lot of projects going on right now, but I'm going to point out two huge ones: Yellowtail and Walru. Now I'll bring back around why I highlight those particular projects, but my point of this slide is the lifetime value of an opportunity goes way beyond the initial sale. Future expansions: subsea projects are designed with phase two, phase three, phase four that can be anywhere from three, five, ten years down the road. All of this future expansion drives growth, drives value. Cross-selling opportunities I mentioned earlier: within subsea technologies, we sell into subsea production systems, subsea distribution systems, subsea umbilical, riser, and flowline systems. All of those cross-selling opportunities drive value. Then outside of subsea technologies into the broader Hunting product portfolio, Scott George will talk a little bit about our big win down in Brazil, cross-selling opportunities from division to division to help the overall portfolio. And then ultimately, as you can see, the asset life cycle. I talked about the life cycle: projects that are products that we have, life of field, intervention, decommissioning that go out 10, 15, 20 years on every given asset. So I talked about Yellowtail and Waru. Those are what I'm showing up here is just one project. That particular customer in Guyana has a runway of 10 projects. So my point to this slide again is there's huge, huge opportunities that exist way beyond the initial sale, right? Well after the initial sale is done, future expansion driving value, life of field driving value, cross-selling driving value. All of that adds up to the financial portfolio that we're building in subsea technologies. Now tying it all together, we've got a diverse product line that can stand on its own, well respected by our customers. We have active R&D projects alongside with our customers focused on their challenges for tomorrow. With the tier ones, the innovation that we develop bolts right into their system to help them create a competitive advantage. With the majors, we are now a key supplier to them. So all of this together facilitates an incredible organic growth strategy. And then we know Hunting over the years has been very active in M&A. With subsea technologies being a key growth initiative, we definitely are looking at technologies that complement our strategy and can accelerate our growth. Apologize. Our goal in the end is to create value for the customer, right? Reduce their capex, reduce their lead times, help them achieve first oil faster. When we accomplish this, we increase our strategic position. I've mentioned with the tier ones, mentioned with the installation contractors, and with the operators. By increasing our strategic position with them, we're positioning ourselves to drive growth, increase our profits and cash flow. In summary, our leadership position is focused on driving value through innovation, and this is both in our organic and inorganic arenas. We have a strong IP with a competitive advantage. We have a unique customer alignment that gives us the ability for multiple opportunities over the life cycle of the project. Our track record: best in class. We have over 40 years of execution experience, thousands of projects. When you couple this with our operational synergies, we are poised for margin expansion. And our financial profile goes way beyond the initial sale. Future expansion on all these projects, cross-selling opportunities, life cycle opportunities. Our financial profile is built for long-term profitability. I'll leave you with an interesting point. In 2014, we ended the year at $55 million subsea technologies. Our backlog was at $22 million. I expect this year in 2023 to close out eclipse $100 million top line revenue while booking between $145 and $150 million worth of backlog. We are poised to achieve $250 by 2030 while delivering a strong cash flow position for Hunting and its investors. I appreciate the opportunity. I'm going to turn that over to Mr. Scott George. Thank you, sir.
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Scott George59:49
Thank you, Mr. Dane. Good afternoon everyone. Thanks for attending. I wanted to start off by saying that I'm going to dive a little bit deeper into the world of advanced manufacturing. Good afternoon, my name is Scott George and I'm the managing director for North America. As you'll see from the slide, we have four distinct businesses driving diversification as we're a complex group with high barriers to entry which helps enable long-term relationships. I will explain a little bit more about each location as we move through the slides. Visibility of high growth opportunities continue in defense, medical, and aerospace segments. We produce top quality products with a robust quality management system and no room for errors. Failure is not an option. The chart on the right signifies our growth from '22 to '23 where we should finish the year in line with budget. We are confident with a 29% growth rate through 2025. We have better visibility than most with our products produced incurring long lead times and we encourage our clients to order early. On the core competency slide you saw earlier, our diversity, our diversification efforts continue as we have focused our efforts to establish more medical space, aviation, defense, and power generation business. We're just starting to get our footing in these sectors with more backlog and larger tenders processed since the end of COVID. The addition of new capital equipment at all locations has helped speed up the process and time to market for new clients. We have replaced outdated machinery as well as adding newer advanced models to help us diversify further. Another slide that was shown earlier, it's important to point out on the slide that all three sectors are expected to continue their growth through the decade. With the increased spend in the defense sector, this opens the door for our AMG group to continue its accelerated growth. Turbine engine shafts along with helicopter rotors, periscopes, and other defense contracts offer a high barrier to entry for our competitors. These programs last for several decades after initial development. This has been one of our largest growth areas in the past couple of years with several more programs being tendered and awarded recently. If you focus on the medical and the center, the medical devices continue to evolve annually and with the increased spend forecasted, it makes it easier for AMG group to capitalize on growth opportunities. Our medical device certification allows us easier access to all clients to help expand our product offerings. It's always critical to get your own lab tests and results back quicker, correct? We all go see the doctor. That's what we're doing by providing the best state-of-the-art equipment to the medical industry. We're excited to provide mission critical devices to the medical industry now and further into our future. As the commercial space market continues to grow over $1 trillion, it's accelerated growth and the opportunities are endless for growth as we progress forward. The number of active satellites that Jim mentioned earlier launched continues to grow as the products we produce are used on the rockets transporting them. Our products produced will also help with human cargo launches well into the future. We always like to say, how cool is it to see a live launch or on television say, 'Hunting helped make that happen.' It's a pretty neat thing. With our certifications, we have key certifications that allow us to participate in the medical, aerospace, and defense markets. Our ITAR compliance with military contractors is paramount to better facilitate business within the military industry and we are compliant at both Dearborn and electronics facilities as of 2017 and 2021 respectively. This is not an easy process to go through as it has taken us over two years to become supplier ready in these industries. Our client base continues to expand as we further diversify through these industries. Most of our oil and gas clients have been with us for over four decades with continued success and new opportunities each year. Our clients also know we are valuable partners. There are only a handful of competitors in our industry. It takes months and sometimes a year to become a qualified supplier, but once approved, they rely on the precision of our expertise and it becomes a long lasting relationship. Moving on to our electronics segment. In the 1980s, electronics started making high pressure, high temperature power supplies for the oil and gas market. We continue producing thousands of assemblies for oil and gas and now have further diversified into medical field producing blood sample devices and defense amphibious vehicle control panels along with other key components in those industries. Our perforating switch manufacturing for Jason, as you mentioned earlier, for our Titan group has also helped us diversify. For large production batch manufacturing, we produce over two and a half million switches annually and can provide more as the market grows. We received our new state-of-the-art chip placement machine as you see in the photo, over a million dollars investment at the end of last year, and has increased our capacity and improved our overheads this year. We can produce thousands of circuit boards in much less time, allowing us the opportunity to chase higher volume, more profitable applications with less people. As stated earlier, we can produce more of our internal perforating switches which helps our Titan group get to market faster. Our testing capabilities enhance our client experience which we can have the boards assembled, tested, and ready to go to the field for production runs. We have a vertical integration model that we use that we can produce the mechanical chassis at our Sam Houston Park location and then assemble the boards, wire the boards, completely test the tool, and make ready for the field. This helps our clients get to market quicker as opposed to sourcing several suppliers, bringing in house for tests, and then shipping it back to the field. As you look at the next slide, the momentum building since second half of 2022 is supplied as chip supply chain constraints are eased. If you notice on the far right graph, back in 2020 we were at $35.5 million in revenue. This year at the electronics segment, we're hoping to eclipse over $50 million. We still have some suppliers that are not back to full production since COVID, but we're ordering early enough to help reduce lead times for clients. Our medical and defense sales have added to growth in 2023 as seen on the chart to the right as well. And the U.S. CHIPS Act will also in years to come help with our supply chain as we can source locally as well as internationally, giving us better flexibility for supply. On to our Dearborn location. Dearborn has been the industry leader in deep hole drilling and machining of precision tubular components since 1947. Dearborn then started in the 1960s providing submarine work for the Navy. We proudly celebrated our 75th anniversary last year. Since then, we've evolved into a leading provider of oil and gas, power generation, space, and nuclear products with our precision machining of exotic alloys that are complex with little competition, making it extremely difficult for entry into the supply chain. We provide large-scale gun drilling with precision accuracy and intersecting angled holes for the most complex of parts. Our parts produced at these locations include drilling collars for the MWD/LWD and oil and gas tools, helicopter rotors, aerospace and power generation turbine shafts which are incredibly difficult to manufacture and can take up to 52 weeks and beyond to complete, as well as piston and casing assemblies for the space programs. We're also proud to say that we're still actively providing periscopes and other technologies for the Navy and their defense contractors. So within the Dearborn revenue model, our strong growth in non-oil and gas order books since 2020. Our order book increases a year and more out as clients book early to avoid delivery delays due to long lead time manufacturing. As mentioned earlier, they can be longer than 52 weeks in some cases. We kept most of our advanced employees during COVID and we are reaping those benefits this year with increased production and less delays. As again stated on the right hand side, back in 2020 before COVID, we're about $40 million in revenue. We expect to exceed that here at the end of 2023. Our Sam Houston Parkway location located in Houston produces tier one downhole completion equipment accessories for the oil and gas and deep water markets which include liner hangers, inserts for MWD and LWD tools, drill bits, mandrels, and housings to name a few. The flexibility to also help with Dearborn work in smaller applications at Dearborn as large as our large application provider. Dearborn would essentially provide us the collar and Sam Houston Parkway would provide the insert that goes into the collar. I believe outside in the sample room you'll see an insert that we can talk about later on today. We have a great first article shop with large production capabilities and once approved in the field by our clients. On to Cumberland. I believe Jim mentioned Cumberland earlier as well. Cumberland's a great first article and quick to market option for our clients using all kinds of materials such as titanium, aluminum, carbon fiber, and nickel. From the chart on the left, you can see the industry is continuing its accelerated growth until 2030. This will help us grow with our current clients and into new markets with the Cumberland team. We have multiple size ranges of printing and design engineering to help get to market quicker and they can 3D print just about anything large, medium, or small. Our design qualifications are quicker as concept to reality takes less time than the traditional manufacturing R&D. So in summary, precision manufacturing engineering for mission critical products. We're best in class with a long history of producing high reliability parts no matter what the environment might be. Our largest diversified product group in the company. And our confidence remains high with performance exceeding over $100 million by the end of this year. And with that, we're going to Q&A.
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Jim1:09:54
So with that, we're going to be opening it up for questions from the team that you just saw and, uh, Scott will join us over here and if you have anything relative to that, let us know or ask away. Okay, no, I'm just kidding. Mick, go ahead.
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Analyst1:10:25
Yes, and Barclays, a couple of questions about me. Just on the subsea side, the traditional subsea side where you're selling the couplings to all the tier one OEMs. Obviously that market appears to be consolidating a bit with Aker Solutions and Schlumberger, SLB, or whatever it's called these days getting together. Does that make any difference to that market for you now it's getting more competitive?
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Dane Tipton1:10:48
Great question. No, not at all. It's always been a tight market in terms of just a handful of players. It really comes down to who has the best position in different sectors of the world. Our particular company has specialized on the metal seal coupling. All the other ones out there have been on the elastomer side of things, so it really has not affected us in any particular arena. It just comes down to really the criticality of what's required for that particular field.
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Analyst1:11:17
And can I follow up on those hydraulic couplings? For years we've been hearing about electric subsea trees and we keep getting told that the future is here today and then never see them. What's your view and how does that impact your business?
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Dane Tipton1:11:31
Yes, great question. We've followed this extremely close given the critical nature to our company and even looked at going down that particular path also. After a true deep dive and getting close to looking at bringing that technology in-house, the reality of the market size for a full electric tree is just less than 10%. So what it takes to get into that to be a strategic piece or solution within that market just isn't worth it with what's existing out there today. We definitely do not see electric trees taking over the full hydraulic arena.
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Analyst1:12:15
Thank you. Not Wilson from Jeffries. Now this might be a difficult question to ask across three different divisions, but very focused on the top line growth in those presentations. A key feature of today's press release was the EBITDA margin growth. It's there on behind aiming to get 15%, but also the free cash flow the company is expected to generate. So the question I've got for you is: where in your businesses is the margin improvement coming from and the cash generation that will follow?
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Jim1:12:52
Somewhere I'll take that one. I will tell you it's in every business that we have right now. Everything is going in the right direction from a margin point of view, from a cost point of view, and from a sales point of view, which is going to drive the free cash flow. I think when you see Bruce's number later in the presentation, a lot more of that will be clear. The second part of what we're doing today as far as the answers go, but literally all three of them are in a strong position right now and improving.
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Analyst1:13:26
Titan, you say that it's going to be a business that would be more and more international. We have the fracking business development in China or in Saudi Arabia for example, but it's not the same kind of clients. U.S. is probably more E&P, sometimes big ones, but for example in Saudi Arabia you're facing big national oil companies. So how does it impact your business in terms of setting up the contract? Does it mean that you will sign long-term agreements with the kind of pricing that is different? How do you work with those clients that are completely different in terms of mindset majority of the time?
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Jason1:14:08
Okay, so you're exactly right. It is a very different market internationally. The way that we work there is that actually a lot of the U.S. service companies are invited to work in those areas also, so they know us very well. But essentially we work with, especially in Saudi, right, it's Aramco. So they like our products overall, so they spec into the procedures essentially, right? And we don't set the price with Aramco, but the service companies over there do understand that what we bring into the country has certain value more so than in the U.S. And we don't bring all of our products over there. We only bring the key products that these E&Ps would like. Argentina is the same way. In Argentina, you have two major E&Ps. One is a state-owned company that was Pan America. Both spec our products per se, right? In that case, it's a little bit different. One of the nationals, they've approached us to buy the products directly and reissue it to their service companies because of cash essentially. There's a big cash issue in Argentina, right? So we try not to get into that. We let the E&Ps do that. They're much better at moving cash around. These other service companies are. So I guess the short answer is we deal with them very differently, but the guys that run our products, we're very familiar with. It's Halliburton, it's Nesr, which is basically an extension of Nexen. They partnered together over there in Saudi. I don't think another key point is too, when you look at this industry, whether it's the Titan industry, the OCTG industry, we're very involved in SPE, API, the associations that go on with the technical side of this. So we've had a number of papers published from our group, for example with Titan. Those are all internationally read by engineers around the world. So our reputation really drives a lot of that. And internationally, they don't have the luxury of distribution centers like they do in the U.S., right? We've commented a lot of times about there is no backlog at Titan. Well, any backlog we have is probably just what's going international because they do plan longer down the road for that business.
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Analyst1:16:19
And maybe a second one, maybe more on the offshore subsea. We talked more and more about collaboration and early involvement in this business with the EPC companies being involved much earlier in the design of the project. Does it change anything for you or you do not care if it's an integrated project or a separate contract for SURF and SPS or separate tenders?
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Dane Tipton1:16:44
I want to make sure I understand your question. Can you repeat that please? Saying that for the design of the project, we have more and more collaboration between the EPC, for example TechnipFMC, Subsea 7, or Saipem, and the client with an approach that is now called integrated SURF and SPS. And sometimes I've been with the soft on one side, the SPS on the other, etc. Being, not in a bad way, a small part of the project design. Does it change anything for you to be integrated or not? Oh, without a doubt. Great, great question. It's an extremely dynamic situation, right? Because you've got one company where we primarily just sell to the tier ones and have since the beginning, and now we're playing in an area where we have the ability to be that technology partner to the tier ones. Because think of their business model, it has just continued to expand into this full-service offering. They need that technology partner, and that's who Hunting is, and that is our DNA. But with our latest acquisition, you see now we're into a realm where we have this direct link into the operators, right? Because they see pure value in the technology. So if you take for instance the flow access module I talked about, right? If we're doing some work with, let's just say TechnipFMC or OneSubsea, either one of them, well, let's say it's a flow measurement device, whatever would be on the tree goes on that FAM. So we're not competing with the tier ones at all. We have no intention on competing with them. We are their technology partner. What we do is we've just brought a new technology to the subsea field distribution that really kind of changes the field layout and can impact field economics.
A
Analyst1:18:29
Thanks. Hi, it's Alex Brooks from California. Can I ask a question on Dearborn? Because this is a business which, as far as I can tell, it's had a very strong 2023 in profitability. And you've talked previously about it being actually quite heavily project and platform driven more than specifically order. So as I look at that graph of revenue recovery, I think what I'm really looking at is a recovery from COVID. I'm not really seeing the development of platforms and the kind of longer term order book that that's building. I mean, is there more? Is there significantly more to go there?
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Scott George1:19:11
For sure, there's definitely long-term contract agreements that we have in place with the likes of L3, Pratt Whitney. Again, those particular growth opportunities for us have been achieved even since after COVID. So again, I think that revenue will continue to increase even beyond '23 into the next few years as well, because again, those are two to three year contracts and we're excited to have those particular pieces of business.
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Jim1:19:36
Was a real hammer to that Dearborn business. We had projects where we had completed parts, for example, it might sit. In one case, I know some sat for six weeks because it was an aerospace component and it could not be shipped or built until they signed off on it. And because at COVID they had nobody they could send in. I mean, that material issues and all really made it challenging. So the good news is those things are behind us now. Thank you.
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Analyst1:20:03
Thanks. Victoria McCulloch at RBC. I'm going to ask a silly question now. So what's the life of a titanium stress joint?
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Dane Tipton1:20:13
That's not a silly question. That's a critical question. So they're designed to 25 to 30 year life, but quite frankly, like we're seeing Shell right now start bringing some risers back. It's not just titanium, it's also steel risers, steel stress joints. Bring them back in, have us retrofit them, and go back out there. So that's a whole other side of the business that 20 minutes doesn't offer. Yes, there's a secondary market to that as well. Yes, ma'am, there sure is. Yeah, okay.
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Analyst1:20:40
And then on AMG, there's been some lead time issues faced this year. Could you give us an update on how the progress is on those, but also how do you try and foresee future issues that kind of could provide some headwinds on that business as far as supply chain? Victoria, you said yes, sorry.
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Scott George1:20:57
So the supply chain constraints for us tremendously. I mean, again, there are still pockets of material that we're still waiting on, but again, as you can see by the results, they're starting to free themselves up. We also order ourselves material early and in advanced stages to let our clients know that we're committed to them. And I think it's a better opportunity for them to get their orders in quicker. That way we can order for those longer lead time components to be able to wait out those 52 to 60 week lead times in some cases. So again, it has eased up tremendously, and we're still expecting further ease as the year progresses. Great, thanks very much.
A
Analyst1:21:35
Hi, Alex Smith from Investec. Just a quick one for Hunting Titan. And I guess you kind of outlined how international growth can maybe offset some softening in the U.S. rig count, but it seems if you're looking at 10k ago on the top line, are you seeing a bit of a rebound coming in the U.S. rig count in Q4 into 2024? That's kind of how you kind of pencil across those two kager numbers?
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Jason1:21:59
I would say that we are seeing a lot more inquiries. Timing of that can depend on Q4, Q1, but we are seeing a lot more questions of our capacity and capabilities, right? Especially with our new products. As far as the growth for Titan, I'm really relying on a couple launches that we're doing this year, right? So H4 is going to be very key for us. We had products that did similar things in the past, but there was this new technology. I think a lot of orienting perforating going on right now. I think you guys all see it out there. It's having some good results, and a lot of E&Ps have indicated they will move to that type of system. So we expect quite a bit of volume in that particular system itself.
As far as the Perf Plus, has been very, very well received. Right now it's just hoping Scott can help us with some electronic parts and also launching that. So the major service companies, I'm very cautious as to how I launched this thing because I want to make sure that we lock it up in contracts that they don't compete with our other technologies, essentially. Right? So I think that the margin side is going to improve and the growth is going to improve a little bit. Now Q4, Q1, I think is a guess at this point, but it is coming. I see it coming back. Yes.
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Jim1:23:18
I mean, my personal take, for what it's worth, we hopefully have seen the rig count bottom last week. I think we actually had a gain of one, so the first time in nine weeks we didn't have a decline. I think that if you look back at what drives that, we all know Shell's very quick to turn on, quick to turn off. Six months ago we had oil prices that started with a six and gas prices that were completely heading into unknown territories. I think now with the current commodity prices, animal spirits will resurrect themselves. And you've got a big group of private players out there that I believe are going to be putting more rigs to work. And those were the first ones that really took the count down in a dramatic way. So again, it's a cash flow issue with them, and I think '24 is just going to be a fantastic year. Great, thank you.
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Analyst1:24:05
Hi, it's Paul from Investec. As part of the $2 billion target, you talked about inorganic opportunities, but can you just then outline for the three of you, if Bruce lets some of the purse strings go, what you'd like to add on to your businesses, please?
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Jason1:24:22
Go ahead, guys. Okay. I think that as we start to consolidate our facilities into more efficient facilities, we always see capex for new equipment, right? I think I'd like to spend a little bit on our manufacturing of guns locally here in the U.S. and also in Mexico. Being close is a bit better cost option for a lot of guys out there internationally. I think using Hunting's footprint internationally at radio, right? I think we're pretty well set there as far as being able to use our money for R&D. Ethics in that it's not a key thing for us. So those are the things I would ask for: a little more manufacturing equipment.
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Dane Tipton1:25:08
Well, for me, I've been kind of spoiled last couple years. I've been blessed with two acquisitions. So if you go back just three to four years, our subsea business was drastically different. So now we're building a strategy that I tried to articulate for you today to where we can sell into subsea production systems, subsea distribution systems, and SURF systems, and then bring on that service aspect to Hunting. You know, creates a really nice portfolio for us for the long term. So I know I'm being a little general when I say all of it, right? But I sincerely look at where our tier ones are going, where these EPC guys are going, where they are not investing in technology, so then that can be our spot for them.
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Jim1:25:54
I have time for one more question. I think Malcolm's got a question, and then we're going to go take our first break.
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Analyst1:26:02
Yeah, thank you. Mountain Grandma Capital. For you really, Jim, because I mean you just mentioned the rig counts is important, but at one is nothing to talk about. And in fact, for those of us who have been around the block with Hunting over the years, it often used to be, 'Oh, things are going great,' and I'm sure therefore things are going great for Hunting. But what you can see here is a great international and technological advance. Now some of us have seen that before. We have seen big Singapore offices being or Hong Kong or the Far East or whatever, and we've seen expansion into the North Sea, and we've heard people say, 'You know, the North Sea is dead, therefore pipes and drilling is history,' and so on. What can you say to us that means that this is going to change again, because we haven't seen it before?
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Jim1:26:56
Yeah, you're right. What goes around comes around. I mean, I've made the prediction that I think in five years from now, you're going to see the independents going back to more international plays as example, while they consolidate in North America and that remains the manufacturing process. I think the important message that I'm trying to get across with this Capital Markets Day, or one of the messages, is for too many times the last couple years it's been 'Hunting is Titan.' And really today we're trying to show that while Jason's doing a great job and we love that business, there's so many other parts to the company as far as where we can drive profitability and growth that we really want to show that out. From the international side, decide how OCTG has taken off, subsea, advanced manufacturing. That's really the new balance today, right? And in a less capital intense environment than what we've had in the past. So we're bullish. We're still in, you know, still have facilities in the North Sea. We think when you talk about carbon capture, there's going to be a need for those facilities on top of what we're doing now. So we look at our assets, we look at them all the time, real time, to see where do they fit and how are they going to prosper. And we're pretty optimistic we have a good footprint going forward to balance this out. So I think with that, if that answers your question, okay.
I think with that, we're going to take a break right now. Take 10 minutes. Thanks. All right, we got coffee and water and things out there.
All right, okay. I think we're getting ready to get started for part two. Just wanted to make a reminder, Mark, it's still open, so the shares are still on sale right now if you want to rush out and place your orders after hearing all these great comments and everything. So we're going to go in and talk about...
Oil country tubular goods — you're probably saying why and why is Jim up there doing this? One is I've started my career in the oil country tubular goods business, and like Hunting started in the oil field service business, it's an amazing business, but it's a very unique business. When I say that, it's why we have Daniel and Scott both presenting from the Americas and then from an international perspective, because pipe as it relates to steel is a very political product. You have pipe and steel businesses different all around the world. I only have to remind you all that why the EU started was because of iron, coal, and steel and the fact that governments wanted to make sure employment stayed high in those areas. Today you have those same types of things in the international market. Our move into India with Jindal is really a lot of it's driven by local content issues that are going to happen in India for Made in India government rules that they want to have. You look at Indonesia, you have to have local content. You look at North America, it's a marketplace where it has been dominated by trading companies and pipe distributors as far as the channel to the oil companies from the mills. If you look at other international markets where we participate a lot, like in the Middle East, it's supplier to end user. So all of these things factor into how you have to do business differently in this business that we have. The key for us is we are an independent supplier, so we're not tied to any one mill. Daniel and Scott will talk in more detail about who some of these people are and what the relationship is to that, but I want to get across that sometimes I take kind of offense to it because I started in this business and worked in the premium connection side, but people really don't appreciate what goes into these products. When we're talking technology, I mean you're talking for example a piece of pipe that may have to hold three million pounds of tension by one thread that has to hold 20,000, 15,000 PSI internally and externally in the case of our new technology area like in carbon capture has to go through cryogenic cycles that affect the performance and the sealability of these products. So this is not dumb art; this is not some low-dollar, low-investment product. It is very critical. If you look onshore for example in the unconventionals, it is the number one biggest cost of making a well today is the OCTG.
So, as we talk in this again, we're aligned. We are independent. I like to show the graph on 2023 is up considering the fact that we got out of the pipe business in Aberdeen and in Canada. So those are great numbers without selling pipe. And at the end of the day, one of the things that people when they look at our OCTG business, they're like, 'Oh, pipe prices are falling in the U.S.' I don't care what the pipe price is in the U.S. or globally for that matter. We do not stock for speculation; we're not doing programs for people. In the U.S. and Canada, we're working strictly through distribution. We have distributor partners that they're taking the risk on the inventory. They send it to us, we charge them a fee for our technology, and then it goes to the client. Our job is getting our products certified and qualified through extensive physical testing to end users. So in the Gulf of Mexico for example, there's clients that we have tested numerous OD sizes with, passed these tests, and that connection is spec'd in for these deepwater wells for it picked an Exxon, a Chevron, and an Occidental or the like. So that kind of gives you a little bit about that and what we're talking about. Again, it is a critical product for the industry as a whole. You can't have failures. It is mission critical. And like I said, I'm just trying to highlight the fact that I don't think people realize how important all this is. On the accessory side, that has driven the completion accessories, which we call the jewelry, is part of the OCTG package. Our facilities in Singapore, Houma Louisiana, Rankin Road in Houston, Aberdeen Scotland — there are specialists in making these products. It drives a lot of the business that Scott's going to talk about in South America. The typical product portfolio that we have shown here — we have premium connections for every application out there, from the most severe which is our wedge lock product line, the ones I talked about where we put it on 16 inch casing or we're going to put some of this possibly on nickel based alloys, to our Tech lock product which was developed — and Scott's got a good case study to show you — was developed for the unconventional place and has been a massive home run, and then the middle range, what I'll call the seal lock product line, which has been the bread and butter of the company from day one.
Kind of a time chart — I was around when this product line was bought in 1980. Seal lock was originally some oil filled trivia; seal lock was originally the first metal-to-metal seal premium connection with a negative load flank thread. Doesn't mean much to all you, it's important to us. But that was developed by Armco Steel. Armco got out of the tubular business, we bought it, and that was the basis for the platform for all development going forward. You'll see different views of it. The one thing about the business today that is important is if you look at the growth in North America, it's really been driven also by the adoption of more premium product than API. So if you look at that tonnage graph that I showed, in the past where it's 14, 15 million tons, 10 years ago it would have been maybe 20 percent of that was premium. Today that number's about 50-50. When George Mitchell drilled the first wells in the Barnett Shale and unconventional, I called on engineers there. There was no premium application or semi-premium application in those well designs. Today I really don't know any operator in North America that is not utilizing premium connections or semi-premium connections in the unconventionals due to the long lateral links that are going on and the need to have integrity in those casing strings. So even with rig count not what it was in the U.S., we've grown that business year over year because again it's the intensity and it's the technology of the product. So before I pass it on, again keep point: we're independent, we can work with lots of different mills depending on what politics works out best. We have great connection technology, we can develop it quickly, and it's going to continue to be a strong business for us and I think great upside going forward. And with that I'm going to pass it over to Mr. Scott George.
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Scott George1:35:42
Hello again. It's always nice to hear your counterparts say we need Scott for this, we need Scott for that, but do they really? Excuse me one second. Switch gears here from AMG into the OCTG side. So on this next slide here, our strong revenue growth will continue along with pull-through accessory revenue into 2025 and beyond. If you look at the chart over here on the right, our expectations to finish this year are in the 180 range — again, that's just on the connection and the accessory itself. To Jim's point, not providing the pipe. We're getting rid of our pipe business in Canada and introducing our distribution model has increased profitability significantly in the region. They've achieved budget within the first seven months of the year. Budget for ourselves in North America will be achieved as market activity continues in a positive direction. We have an agile supply chain that provides cost-efficient solutions for customers. We have a modern and efficient manufacturing base globally as well. And as everybody's mentioned in the past couple of slides, South American growth for pull-through accessory revenue driven by Ghana and Brazil's successes. Our case study here that Jim mentions: we invested in an in-house test facility back in 2012 for testing our products as industry standards continue to increase with clients asking for more stringent designs. Our engineers witnessed a shift in the market back in 2015 prompting our pivot to a land-based connection. It took us just over a year to develop this Tech lock wedge design, delivering a critical industry solution for U.S. shale at the beginning of 2017. We did this as we were in the middle of a deepwater slowdown, and that was 95 percent of our revenue at the time. Our sales team was able to think outside the box and adapt to the industry changes and get to market quicker with our expert engineering and in-house test lab. Each one of our connections also has a specific design and test equipment. We would perform an FEA, which is a finite element analysis testing which simulates a well environment before R&D testing. This helps speed up the release of products to the market and is more cost effective. Our lab provides quicker time to market without waiting on test queue and lead times from third parties. Our proactive development process led to success in record time for this new connection when we released it to the market. Since introducing into the market, as you see on the graph, in 2017 Tech lock wedge has generated over $130 million in revenue since all the way through June of '23.
As this is only for the connections cut on the pipe itself, this specific technology has also delivered excellent returns to the lean COVID years as well. Jim put this up a few slides ago, but it has consistent output for us the next three to five years and has a strong position to continue gaining market share. Premium in Eagle Ford will continue to add most of the valuable production in that time frame as shown on the waterfall graph over here to the right. None of these plays, as you can see on the left, go down all the way through 2027. As clients shift focus, we will adjust as needed and continue to capture market share as well. Jim had one of these on his slides earlier — the Permian, but again through the Permian, Bakken, and Eagle Ford you can see the production peaks after the first year and further declines through years two and three. This is helpful to our business which encourages more drilling in a shorter time frame. Our opportunities increase for us when new drilling takes off, and this will enable us to provide enhanced technologies as the client needs change for more production. We've shown a lot of customer slides today, but again we have loyal clients with a partnership mentality that have lasted decades with our specialized technology. We continue adding new and loyal users. These clients are also key for us as we use those relationships to strengthen our accessory and build-to-print businesses within the group. As Jim mentioned earlier, both Daniel and I have unique global supply chains, and our unique selling proposition is based on tailored technology and our service. The oil and gas market drives the opportunities, and we can participate in a variety of ways. We are not held captive, as Jim mentioned earlier, by one mill and we do not have our own mill. We're able to offer complete programs through distribution efforts or even direct with our clients with consigned pipe for us to thread. Pipe mills also approach us with their pipe with our connection on it for a complete package to the market. Again, the demand for our technology shapes the well design and drives the demand from our clients.
We have several manufacturing sites in the state strategically positioned for maximum output to all basins for all products produced. Our central engineering located in Houston provides maximum coverage to our global clients. Great access to ports to be able to transport all OCTG products, and accessory manufacturing and print part work is easily transported globally as well. This slide was also back in our beginning deck, and again the strong activity in Guyana and Brazil expected to continue for the next three to five years. Both Abusios and Stabrec have the largest fields by capex on the right hand chart until the end of the decade. We are currently tendering other products in those regions to help further our growth for the future. Another case study here on our well completion pull-through revenue. Both Brazil and Ghana plays have been a large win for us in the last couple of years for completion accessories. We've received our first tender during COVID as another supplier had failed to deliver. We then took that opportunity and turned it into the unexpected revenue that it is today. This is only on two sizes of a single component which will produce over $40 million by the end of the decade. Further growth is expected to continue as Guyana and Brazil expand their activity and we continue quoting other accessories within the region. Our turnkey manufacturing of these accessory products in our manufacturing facilities also will help continue our growth. And in summary, our technology continues to evolve which drives long-term client relationships. We have high margin accessory production that continues to help the group add revenue and produce profits. We are well positioned for continued growth in North America as we continue to enhance our position in the market with technology advancements. Outperformance of budget is expected — second half of the year remains strong for our group. And with that I'll hand it over to Mr. Daniel Tan.
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Daniel Tan1:42:12
Thank you, Scott. Can you guys hear me? You guys look serious. By a show of hands, who has been to Singapore? Wow. When we played a video of the show Marina Bay Sands, who has been there? It is the regional headquarters of Hunting in my dream. 15 years ago we embarked on the journey to build manufacturing hubs in Asia. We built three of them: one in Singapore, which Jim was alluding to, building the jewelry — they make the jewelry of all the accessories, high value stuff — and we have one in China and one in Indonesia. Since then, I would have never imagined we have delivered more than 80 million feet of OCTG and accessories. I'm very sure it will take way less than that for us to reach the 200 million mark. And along the way we built a very resilient core team, a team to stay with us through thick and thin to the industry's ups and downs, and a very robust supply chain ecosystem. Hi, by the way, I'm Daniel Tan, the managing director for Asia Pacific segment. I'm part of the team that's responsible for growing our international OCTG market. Going forward, we've expanded capacity and capabilities. I'm very confident we're going to grow the market share, we move up the value chain, achieving better returns on investment. Both Jim and Scott mentioned about a premium connection. I need to time my colleagues in the US or in Houston — they've done fabulous jobs. We are in a way blessed; when we started building our hubs, we already had customers come to us: 'Is Hunting present in Asia? We want to use premium connections because of the experience they had, great experience they had in Gulf of Mexico for example.' When Chevron came to Asia, the old Unocal in Indonesia, Chevron Thailand, Chevron Bangladesh, they came and looked for us: 'Where is Hunting? Where can I get premium connection? I want to invite you to come and bid.' And that's what we did. We built on the success of what we have established over many years. When we started the journey to sell in the Asia Pacific in 2008, we probably had about four customers in two countries, maybe selling about 50,000 feet a year. Today, we have sold to more than 90 customers in 40 countries and counting. Our customer base is expanding. One of the key pillars in our strategies is our new partnership. Our strategic mill partnership allowed us to scale. Today we are able to take on large orders. Jim mentioned about India, which — Jim and myself we will be there to officiate the opening on Monday, next Monday — would have in the region the largest, widest range of products ranging from small tubing size to a large OD conductor casing of 36 inch. I can assure you you will never find another facility that offers the same breadth of product offering that we have. Not only that, because of the partners working closely with us, collaborating with us, and together with the customers we're able to develop and together with Houston engineering a specialized connection that is suited for their well application. Our business model is quite different from US as George was talking about. We do not work with distributors because it's so diverse in Asia Pacific or Middle Eastern Africa; geographically it's so challenging and different. We provide an end-to-end supply chain solution. That means from the mill, we will have our Hunting quality engineers ensuring that every plate and Empire, the raw materials produced by the mills, match the specification what the customers want. Then we process it in one of our manufacturing hubs and we'll deliver by road, by train, of course by ship — never by plane, right, that's all we do. So an end-to-end will actually give customers flexibility, diverse options, and we will minimize disruptions to supply.
So I talked about the three hubs that we built. Singapore basically does all the accessories. If you look in Singapore, the largest completion tools facility, the largest facilities of Halliburton is there. Today we do not just make threads for them; they put into their tools. We are now working with them on collaborations on turnkey services from raw material machining and possibly moving towards simple sub-assemblies. And we have our Lucy plant. Lucy is about four hours drive from Shanghai — that is for China. And we have Batam, which is about half an hour by ferry from Singapore — Batam plant. And of course our latest India, which we partner with Jindal, a very respectable company, a very good partner of ours. We share the same vision, same commitment. All these four facilities will give us more than 200,000 metric tons of capacity, and there'll be room for expansion as well. We are in a region — if you look at Asia Pacific, a lot of Asia is developing economies. People are hungry for energy, people want to have a better lives, and government energy security is top of the priority in many governments. So we are in a region of growth. With our strategic hubs, the people that we have, everyone is truly a one-stop shop — that means every one of the hubs is able to provide OCTG, accessories, technical support, field service, and of course supply chain that comes with it. On a touch base work, our partnership with the mills: it's critical that we continue to diversify our supply of pipes from the mills we work with through the years. We do not just pick any mills. The mills that we pick have to conform to the work we do; they have to be very fast in terms of quality philosophy. That is absolutely key. So you get the pipes from the mill, it processes it through our manufacturing hubs, and we deliver to customers point-to-point. It's an end-to-end supply chain. Not just oil and gas. We're beginning to see a lot of CUS — in fact, we have already sold some OCTG for CCUS application and also for geothermal for many years. If you look at it in Asia, Indonesia down south and Philippines further up, these are the two largest geothermal players outside of America. Customers — a big difference between the customers in Asia and compared to Europe or US is that we have a lot of initiatives driven by NOCs, the national oil company. National economic — that's the difference. So as Jim was talking about the 'Made in India' the prime minister of India, Narendra Modi, back in 2016, he's trying to drive this big 'Make in India' initiative. We saw the opportunity in 2019. Jim and I went to sign the strategic alliance with them. Along the way before COVID, we decided that we need to do more than that. That's how we embarked on the idea of a JV, joint venture. Our customers are EDC — if you look at the bottom, second from the left, this is a large geothermal company in Philippines. So our products have evolved not just purely for oil and gas, but we also have customers that deal with geothermal. This slide tells you that back in 2008, with a limited capacity and capability, our addressable market was only $120 million. Today we are looking at $3.7 billion. And if you look all the way to 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.5, it's going to hit $5.2 billion by '30. So we can be selective. Going forward, we want to target all those with high value added, going up the value chain. We are very confident by 2030 we're going to double the revenue of what we achieved this year, with an EBITDA of greater than 16 percent. One interesting thing to take note is that I did not put in CCUS and geothermal — 23, 24 as a total of our sales, the non-oil and gas OCTG is seven percent. We expect this number to grow to 29 by 2030.
Why India? I mentioned about 'Made in India.' India, of course we know, has overtaken China as the most populous nation in the world. They are still 80 percent import of oil. The GDP is going to grow seven to eight percent from now for more than a decade. It has the fastest young and rising middle class. There's a huge domestic market in India. That's why we are there. Energy security is the top priority of the government. If you look at that map from India, where the plant is, it's about four hours by truck to the port of Mumbai. That is a sweet spot for us in terms of gateway to Middle East and Africa. We're going to build truly the first fully fledged premium OCTG manufacturing hub in India. No one has done that before. We are the first mover, and this will serve us very well for many years to come. Our strategic manufacturing hubs, a stronger force with high ethics, our robust and resilient supply chain — these are the key pillars for our growth. We'll continue to see a steady growth of oil and gas in the OCTG market. Growing in tandem also will be the CCUS and geothermal as well, which later I think Sean, Michael is a chairman of the exciting growth we're going to see. As I mentioned just now, by 2030 we are projecting to double the revenue what we see this year and EBITDA to exceed 16 percent. The Asia Pacific growth story will continue beyond the next decade. One precious lesson I learned all these years is I can buy more equipment, I can invest in technology, we can build more hubs. But the one key thing is our core team — the core team that we have built over the years and the core team that we're going to build for the future. And this is the team that's going to deliver for us. So we have a solid and robust market growth, so the jobs in place and more to come. Supply chain — it's almost like a baseball game: the bases are loaded, we are prepared to strike the home run. The best is yet to come. And with this I'm going to hand over to Sean, who's going to show us the exciting journey on energy transition.
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Sean1:56:03
So good afternoon everybody. First of all, let me just introduce you very briefly to what is Hunting's energy transition strategy. As you've heard, we've got a very great technology profile and we're leveraging our strengths in the oil and gas, in our experience and our presence with the major operators around the world in the oil and gas, using that and expanding into the energy transition sectors, namely the wells-based segments of carbon capture utilization and storage, especially geological storage, and the geothermal energy segments as Jim has mentioned. We have been also in the geothermal section for over 25 years. We have developed very clever engineering solutions, we have a reputation in that market, and that goes from the first products developed on titanium casing in California to cost-effective solutions in Europe for the district heating market to some very good highly engineered tested connections in the Asia market. More recently, you probably recognize here on the right hand side the Eden bubble domes. Hunting may or may not have delivered all of the OCTG to that project in the UK. We've also delivered, as Daniel touched on, to very big projects in Indonesia, in New Zealand actually, Contact Energy, and also in the Philippines. We continue to see very big inquiries coming out of the U.S., even in the UK this week, and also we're doing very well in Holland. As I walk you through these slides, you'll see that these segments or sectors of geothermal and carbon capture are rapidly growing sectors of energy transition. They're underpinned by very robust government policy and also by the major operators' strategies going forward. So for over two years now, we have strategically accelerated our technology roadmap and development plans and also strategically secured very critical material supply chain partners. This poses very well for the future. We're now market-ready and poised to rapidly accelerate our market share in these rapidly growing markets. In this session, you will see that Hunting has best-in-class products in both geothermal and in carbon capture, and we are very confident with the tender pipeline that we're seeing today and that we will reach $250 million by the end of the decade. Put that in context: at the top end of the value chain that we're targeting, that equates to in the region of five to ten projects every year, and that's what we're talking about here.
This is a macro look at the geothermal market. This is widely regarded as a breakthrough decade for geothermal. We're seeing very strong government support, especially in the U.S., in Europe, Asia Pacific, and in New Zealand. So you look at the 10% CAGR here. How does that translate to Hunting's OCTG target? Our sweet spot in OCTG and premium connections. What we've seen in the last few years is this very dramatic shift in geothermal sector to more and more premium connections, somewhat like what we mentioned about oil and gas but even more apparent in the geothermal sector in the markets that we're targeting. What we're seeing is a doubling in OCTG demand for the next till the end of the decade, but even more than doubling the demand for premium or semi-premium connections and bespoke solutions that Hunting can provide. Similarly, in the even more apparent in the carbon capture sector, driven by extremely corrosive downhole conditions and mentioned earlier cryogenic temperature shocks too, so very high barriers to entry in this sector. Again, through Hunting's strong position with the major oil gas companies, all of whom have a very robust strategy in carbon capture, they come to Hunting — the Exxons, the Chevrons. They love our products; they know we have the capabilities to add value in what is a very limited supply chain sector of our industry in OCTG. So we're looking at here for an example to put this in context of OCTG. Look at 2026: 136 million tons per annum of CO2. This equates to at least $1.2 billion of OCTG due to the high exotic grade materials that are required in the sector. In geothermal, to give you a better idea of where we fit, we've been in this market for 25 years. We can supply pretty much the full spectrum of types of wells that you see in the geothermal space, including the evolving newer technology. So in Europe, direct heat is a big market for us; we're very strong in Holland and we are seeing great growths across Europe in that market. We've developed new connections for that market in just the last two years, and already we've hit the ground running to address some of the concerns. I'll go on through that in a particular product later on. So on the left here, you see a market that's typically 90 degrees, 140 up to 140 degrees. On the far right, we're seeing more and more demand especially in the U.S. and parts of Asia for very high temperature power generation market. We have tender pipelines right now of over $200 million looking towards next year for some huge projects in the U.S. and in Asia Pacific, and these are very much driven by government funding and governments' decarbonization and energy security needs. We also see great potential upside in EGS, which is an enhanced geothermal system, especially in the U.S., that requires and has evolved from the unconventional oil and gas sector where you basically don't have communication in the hot rock section and you frack and you make man-made communication. That has great upside for Jason's business and the perforating side and also some of our directional drilling and logging tools. So the geothermal OCTG market — a lot of you look at the numbers here and probably compare it to oil and gas; the devil is in the detail very much in the areas of geothermal that we are looking at. As I mentioned, we're expecting the volumes to double between now and 2030, and there's a huge shift in the percentage of premium connections required. Europe is certainly moving into a boom period in both the heating and the power generation market, a good market for us, and we have responded at the request of some of our customers in Europe to develop technology to address the increased government environmental protection rules on geothermal in Europe, essentially protecting water tables, requiring double barrier wells and more metal seals to do that. We have developed a connection which I'll go into later on, Seal lock Flush, to address that market. There are over 1900 wells drilled across Europe in the last 20 years, and a real niche market for us is actually the workover of those wells.
Carbon capture — again, the numbers here, we're at the tip of the iceberg really in this industry. We've already supplied as Daniel mentioned, we have spent a lot of time developing connections, a lot of it through our engineering and our test labs in Houston. What we're seeing in this market is a huge demand for 25 Chrome, Super Duplex, and higher exotic materials. I'll touch on that later. It's a market a concern from a lot of our operating major operator customers, and they've come to Hunting and basically recognizing how we work as an independent and not being reliant on any one mill. We provide solutions and bring new competition into that market. We're looking at demand of over 25,000 metric tons between carbon capture and geothermal. Put that in context: 25 Chrome and higher grades of material costs in the region of 15 to 20 times more than carbon steel. There's only about three or four players in the world who can supply the types of material and testing and the connections that are required in the carbon capture industry. Hunting has the technology and supply chain to manage that. So we're very much taken initially a low-risk high-growth strategy as we move into the energy transition market. On the left here you'll see one of the benefits — this is a Scott's business at Sam Houston Parkway, this is a flow control valve on Inconel material. So we're leveraging our supply chain benefits in access to the mills and also our precision engineering. This is going to be a huge upside for us as we progress into this market. Hunting is one of the only companies in the API in the oil and gas sector that can actually manufacture products to eight microns. We're one of the only machine shops or manufacturing facilities in the US that could even measure this with CMM machines. This customer, a major OEM, came to Hunting because we're the only ones who can do this. That's going to accelerate as we move into these very complex and corrosive and high exotic grade material sections. On the right here, I'll touch on a very exciting technology for us. Stuart would mention on our Tech Hub, this is a company called CRA Tubulars who have developed a composite material, non-metallic, and this is going to be in our opinion revolutionary in the years to come, very soon in the carbon capture section. More on that later.
So what products have we got ready for market? I mentioned about Europe and the 1900 wells. Our customers came to us in Europe with a big problem with corrosion and the production casing, nine and five eighths typically. So we developed a flush connection that goes within 13 and 3/8 casing with a fiberglass lining that is corrosion-resistant. It replaces and it adds 25 years to the life of that well, and it increases flow by up to 20%. Flow equals energy in the geothermal work. In terms of C lock, we've developed our C-lock XD. Again, this was tested to the terminal requirements in geothermal compared to oil and gas. You're really looking at the highest industry standards. Oil and gas is typically 300 degrees C; in geothermal you're looking at temperatures over 350 degrees C. High barriers to entry. Hunting is there — that's the ISO 12831-2835 sap, and so we're qualified in the geothermal market. Also this connection is being qualified on titanium, it's also been qualified on 25 Chrome for CCUS, it is qualified on 25 Chrome for oil and gas. We've done all the engineering and the testing on that, and we're looking at finishing qualification in the cryogenic thermal shock sector by the end of the year. On perforating, we're already supplying guns and logging tools into the geothermal and CCUS sector, and we're developing new technology including oriented guns that will help avoid some of the problems they're seeing with fiber optic cable damage when you're monitoring CCUS wells. So there's a good upside in that industry as well for perforating systems. Okay, so now let's — okay, sorry about that. So I mentioned about the 25 Chrome market in particular for CCUS. There is in post-COVID essentially we have seen even in the oil and gas in the sour gas sector, Middle East especially, 20 and even 30% growth in demand for the exotic corrosion-resistant alloy OCTG market. In this market, there is a very limited global supply. Some of these mills here do not have access to the global market for obvious reasons. So currently we're seeing demand growing above 50,000 metric tons, which is barely — the existing mills are just about capable of supplying this. There's a new mill being built in Abu Dhabi and that's not there yet. But with the incremental growth that we're seeing especially from CCUS, by 2026 you're adding 25,000 metric tons to this. This level here says that the global capacity is expected to be supply capacity 78,000 metric tons, but in reality because of the lack of access for some of these mills, that supply capacity will only be around possibly 60,000 metric tons. Hunting has partnered with Julie in China to address this market, this gap in the market. Julie is a mill that Hunting has been working with for over five years. We've already supplied CCS projects with this mill. It's a 10-year agreement that sees us very good secure long-term future with the mill. We've already expanded of bringing Hunting's Western technology — the key here is Hunting's Western technology and our acceptance by the major operators globally, coupling that with fantastic mill state-of-the-art products, and then driving that like we've done since 2008 into the Middle East, into the rest of Asia Pacific, and even internationally Western Hemisphere. Julie has the capacity to grow from about four or five thousand metric tons today to rapidly increase that to 20,000 metric tons — that's a third of the global supply market today. Huge, very important position that Hunting has secured with this mill. It's a win-win for Hunting and Julie, and it's also a win for the customers. Qualification programs are already in place with some major operators around the world, and we're expecting that qualification to be complete by three of the six major oil and gas companies this year. Touched earlier on the composite pipes. This product that we're looking at here — this is looking into the future, very near future. Composite pipe is an alternative to metallics. This is CRA Tubulars, a company in Holland set up by former Shell and carbon fiber experts that very high IP content in this which caught our eye. They are able to basically provide an alternative to metallic OCTG for the top end of the nickel alloy already corrosion-resistant alloy market, higher corrosion resistance and a stronger product at a reduced cost. Shell, for example, were so impressed by this they awarded their Game Changer award last year. They're funding the qualification at the moment to have this product ready for their CCUS program. ExxonMobil are also looking at this, ADNOC looking at it in UAE. We have very excited customer base looking at this in the US. We've secured a five-year agreement to be the exclusive distributor, and we're putting our technology again given our experience in titanium to complement their business. It's very exciting. This also has upside potential in the transport side and even potentially into the hydrogen market in the future. So to wrap up, we have the technology, we have the supply chain secured to attack this market, and we are poised to be at the top end of the value chain and market leaders in certain sectors of both the geothermal and the carbon capture markets.
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Jim2:15:27
We're seeing already pipelines of over 220 million that gives us very strong confidence that we can get to 250 million no problem by the end of the decade with upside into other product lines, advanced manufacturing completions, directional drilling tools, perforating systems. That's it, thank you very much. Hand you over to Stewart, sorry.
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Host2:16:10
Good afternoon. So continuing the trend of diverse accessory, now we get to the Scotsman. You'll have seen Jim's introductory remarks and the subsequent product line presentations before the coffee break. Hunting is really engaged and enjoys a high level of technology within the company. We have an IP count of active patents of over 500. And within the product lines, you'll see there's continuous investment back into R&D, new product development, and trying to progress existing technologies and also bring new technologies to the market. Apologies.
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Stewart Barry2:17:02
I'm going to talk to you about for the next 10 minutes or so is a different platform that we use to access technologies from outside the company, so external sources, and trying to look for leverage out there or new technologies that are coming to the market from entrepreneurial small companies, people with ideas really. A very broad approach. As an introductory, I'm Stuart Barry. I'm the managing director for the EMIR region, that is Europe, Middle East, Africa.
So the platform I'm referencing here is Tech Hub, which some of you may have heard in the past. Tech Hub is based in the Aberdeen office where I am, it's managed from that facility, and it originated in Aberdeen focused on the North Sea initially, really coming outside of the 2015 downturn where we were reshaping our business and looking for ways to take a different approach. When the market rebounded, we wanted to be in the best position we could be, so that's where it really initiated. It was intended to accelerate new technology into the organization, technology out with the company, and the original objectives were really around existing core businesses, but we quickly realized that there was a lot of technology coming at us, and as it came out, we thought this is opportunity for us to broaden, to diversify. So we started to take a wider approach to what we're listening to and bring it back in for consideration. That process still exists today and it's actually taken us on the journey that now moves us into the energy transition phase where the Tech Hub is now providing a platform for us to review and assess technologies that have been brought to us within the energy transition zone. The screening will be done at that point; if we feel there's some technical merits in the technology, we can push it out to the relevant product line or technical subject matter experts around the organization, and from there we'll move it forward as we see fit in a commercial sense.
I'm going to give you three examples of success stories to date that have come in through the Tech Hub. On the left, and Sean's just spoken about this in his presentation, the CRA five-year collaboration with the titanium composite tubing pipe solution. This was born entirely of approach from the company to the Tech Hub. The technology was screened and went through the review process, and we moved it on to the relevant subject matter experts, and it is where it is today, about to hopefully see a commercial return at some point. Moving over to the right-hand side, the Helios Micro Hydro. Now this sits within Daniel's group, Ben Asia Pacific. We're talking about water turbines, water power. The relationship with the technology owner in this case is a manufacturing partner, assisting in distribution, but again, this is not new technology but it has some smart technology around it for application in remote, different types of waterways. Today it is commercial, we have distributed to North America and in Asia Pacific, and it is installed in remote parts of the Philippines, in villages off-grid areas, so it's providing power to local remote locations.
Moving on to the third example. The third example in the middle was probably one that you've had over the years. It's organic oil recovery, so this is a production enhancement technique which we engaged with this technology owner some time ago now, and it's some way through its commercial path. The technology itself is referred to as a tertiary production enhancement technique. So what they mean by tertiary is the third phase. So first phase in an oil well's life is completion phase, it's brought on to production and typically through its natural pressure it will produce by its own merits. Second phase could be at the point where the well is starting to see some decline, so there'll be some kind of intervention there, maybe a recompletion or some kind of artificial lift like gas lift or pumps. The third phase, which is typically as the well starts to reach its end of life, is where the economics around doing any major intervention become more difficult for the customer. In this sense, lower cost but valuable technologies come into their own right here, and that's where any stimulation or production enhancement technique would sit. We see the value in this product in late stage of the asset's life cycle. The technology itself, if you've got time afterwards, we've got a microscope set up outside, you can have a look at some live microbes buzzing about. Essentially what we're trying to do with this technology is affect the microbial activity within the reservoir. Microbes exist within the reservoir, and if you can change their behavior, that's what we're doing through a design process, we feed them a nutrient, changes their behavior, and it moves oil droplets. If you look at the large droplets here, they're there to signify trapped oil. The effect of the treatment will break those droplets down into micro droplets, allowing it to flow through the reservoir the porous space within the rock a lot easier. Our IP agreement with the technology owner here is for the Eastern Hemisphere. It does have a very long track record predominantly in the Western Hemisphere on land locations and typically smaller producing wells.
On the right-hand side of the slider you can see the timeline of the technology. We set up the agreement in 2019 and within 12 months we were hitting the COVID pandemic, so everything certainly slowed down through that time period. That's not to say we didn't make progress. You can see some milestones. We did manage to execute our first North Sea application before the pandemic really kicked in. We completed our first Middle East applications through the pandemic under very strict conditions. We've since executed larger size treatments in the Middle East. Last year we executed the first operation offshore North Sea, which is a well-publicized case study. And just in July this year, we executed our first operation off West Coast Africa, Nigeria. So we have made progress through that period, and I'm going to show you in a couple of slides that we feel that we're very close to exciting times. For those of you that have been with Hunting for a few years, you've seen that this has been a slow burner, but in many senses, production technology solutions that are affecting our customers' revenue, reservoir, that's his prime asset, so there is typically a longer time to market because there is higher risk and more due diligence required to be taken on their part. The targets are certain, we're very confident that we're going to hit 15 million by the middle of the decade and a 30 million target by the end of the decade specifically for OR.
This slide shows the customers that are through the commercial cycle with us. On the left-hand side, the first column is customers who are at lab test stage. Essentially what they've done is they have qualified or accepted the technology, they've taken well samples of their own, those are back in the lab now for analysis. Based on their analysis, they will determine whether the reservoir, their well fits the technology, because there are sweet spots for the technology to hit. The middle section is the customers at pilot stage. They've gone through, they've had positive results from the lab stages, and they're now doing pilot tests. Pilot test is essentially a scaled-down version of a full application, it gives them a quicker feedback as to whether the technology will work or not in the reservoir. Those are the customers that are at that stage. On the right-hand side, three customers so far that have implemented a full field treatment. The significant thing on this is that it represents three areas of EMIR region: we've got the Middle East represented there, West Africa, and the North Sea. So it's showing that our sales strategy across the Eastern Hemisphere is starting to take effect. The other significant thing, when you listen to Jim's presentation at the start, a lot of the customers on this slide we have a long-standing relationship and history with them, and it's not by coincidence that we've managed to progress technology with those customers because it's credibility in the Hunting brand. When you take a technology with a strong brand, it's easier to get through the qualification process with these customers. So that's not lost on us. Some very loyal customers on this slide.
This is a case study of one where this is a South Oman well which was done as a batch. Several wells were done, and this is typical of the reaction to the treatment on each of these wells. What you're looking at there is the white dotted line initially. This is a production curve, a production chart like most customers' oil operators will use to project the decline in the reservoir into the future should they take no action on the well. That white line would see a decline over that two-year period there. The customer will be using that to work out his barrels of oil in the future, his economics, and the viability longer term viability of the well. The red vertical lines show four treatments over a 12-month period, and everything above the white dotted line with the vertical arrows is all incremental production post-treatment. So even to the untrained eye, we're looking at some very strong returns for the customer on the technology. There are phases in this production chart where he's doubled his production for periods before we've re-injected the next stage of the treatment. He's actually gone ahead with the subsequent treatments at stages where he saw no production fall, so across that period you're looking on average about an 80% plus production gain. The value created to the customer above that line, this is tremendous return for them. For us, it's a relatively low-cost operation compared to the type of returns that they're seeing here. When they compare that to the cost and carbon footprint of having to do a major intervention on a well such as a workover, you don't need a rig for this, it's basically small scale well intervention equipment and the operation can be executed quite easily. This is a very compelling site, it shows the value of the technology, it's a strong case study, and it's a customer that is very excited with these numbers and will intend to use the product long into the future.
Looking at a sales pipeline sense, this is a snapshot of where we are engaged. These are customers that we are actively engaged with, they have gone beyond just contact, they are going through technical evaluation of the products. So it shows you the reach we've got and the sales strategy, how broad it was right across the Eastern Hemisphere. We now have two offices in addition to the original office in Aberdeen. We have all of our staff set up in our Dubai facility, we're covering the Middle East and the Asia Pacific region. But you can see from that again some large size blue chip operators starting to come through, a lot of interest in the technology. Just to wrap up really, I just want to highlight the Tech Hub is and will continue to provide a platform for the company to review and access new technology from external sources and hopefully accelerate new technology that can provide returns to us within the organization. OR is very quickly establishing itself as a credible production enhancement technique. We truly believe within the next, towards the end of this year, we're starting to build a backlog and we've not had that since the start of the commercial cycle with OR, the agreement being put in place. We're at a stage now where we're starting to build a backlog, so that tells us we've got traction. The hard yards have been put in and we're starting to see results for the technology. The next couple of years are very exciting years for the technology. As I mentioned, the 30 million per annum target is to me a very achievable target. This is a technology that could go from a small well in somewhere in the Middle East, could be a $100,000 treatment, but if you take offshore the North Sea to large reservoirs, the volume of product goes up very quickly, then you're getting into millions of dollars' worth of treatment. So that's it for me. I'll be on the panel. I will be outside, like I said there's a funky little microscope sitting out there, you can see some microbe activity before and after one of the treatments. That's all I had, thank you for your time.
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Host2:32:38
Thanks, dear. I'm afraid you get another Scotsman here. We won't mention the football result last night. Good afternoon everyone.
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Bruce Ferguson2:32:46
I've got the pleasure of taking you through the financial metrics and modeling that's going to underpin the Hunting 2030 strategy. It really is, we've heard some really positive presentations today, some good positivity in the market, the fundamentals and the products, and that makes for a very good and attractive investment case. I can summarize that in six key areas. We're going to see good top-line growth in terms of our revenue, we're looking at 1.3 billion by 2025, growing to 2 billion by 2030. Again, our EBITDA margins are going to progress, we're going to get back to 15% EBITDA margins and keep improving them over the remainder of the decade. Also, we're going to generate some good cash, we're going to throw off a lot of good cash over the decade, we're going to get $300 to $500 million by 2025 and over a billion of cash by 2030. Improvement in earnings, a tidy balance sheet will allow us to get returning capital back towards where we want to be at 15% by 2025. A key strength of ours is our balance sheet and good liquidity with our ABL, and that's going to be the platform for our growth and will allow us to drive more returns back to our shareholders.
If we look at the half-year results, what we can take from that is that good growth and recovery, we're putting COVID in the rearview mirror. We've navigated our way through these troubled times and we can concentrate on the path ahead. We've got strong momentum across all our product lines and all our segments. I think another key takeaway is that we're now decoupling ourselves from just purely the US land business. There's a lot of depth and diversity to that business now. The long duration offshore cycle is starting to play out, and that's resulting in, with the US rig down 16%, our top line is up 42% with double-digit earnings growth. So I think that's really putting that key measure in place. So what gives us confidence in the market ahead? I think there's three key areas. One is the record order book that Jim was talking about earlier, we're now at 530 million at the half year. That's a really good line of sight in terms of what's coming down the pipe. We've also got a billion dollars of tenders that we've submitted now. That's of course OCTG, subsea, across all the product lines, so that gives us real confidence that we will get into the flow of all these orders. All these growth fundamentals that are out there as well, typically we would have seen a $5 to $15 million OCTG order as a good-sized order, we've announced wins of $90 million, we've seen tenders out there of over $100 million. So the real quantum and the scale of that is really exciting, and that's coming through the pipeline there as well. I think the third element is the fundamental strength in key fundamental markets, so oil and gas markets, the international, the offshore, the subsea, and also the opportunities in the transition story that we've been hearing about from Sean.
This slide you might have seen earlier, it's taken from Jim, but this really shows the pathway to the $2 billion revenue. It's important that all product lines are contributing to that $2 billion. Perforating systems still a very important part, as we nurture and harvest those earnings in the US. The subsea build-out that Dean talked about is going to contribute OCTG there again, a lot of those large tenders I'm talking about, and that also includes the carbon capture and geothermal opportunities as well. You'll see the M&A bolt-ons in total that's $380 million of the $2 billion. $137 million of that we've modeled for 2025, and the remainder coming through in the back half of the decade. I think another key thing there is 13% of our business in terms of diversity now is going to be non-oil and gas by 2025, and we're targeting up to 25% by 2030. So a major transition, but it helps us reduce that cyclicality and make it more investable through the cycle.
What a busy slide here. It's talking to the work that we've done to reposition the business, to take the cost reductions, to look at consolidation, to exit product lines that weren't performing. All in all, that was structural savings of $40 million, it's removing $42 million of capital from the balance sheet, so significant change there. We purposely didn't cut into core capabilities, sales, engineering, testing, that allows us to participate in this offshore upcycle that we're seeing just now. We continue to tidy up the company in terms of streamlining, driving out costs, reducing footprints, disposing non-core investments like the EMP business as well. That's something we're always looking at, we're always reviewing in real time. Let's get the business as streamlined as we can, helps margins but also helps the business be more resilient in the down times. If we roll forward those fixed cost reductions, that helped us achieve our efficiencies in terms of EBITDA, working that up from around 10-11% back towards 14-16% in 2025. So it's a fixed cost takeout, we're seeing higher utilization through our plants which helps our cost absorption as well. We've got less commoditized items, we've got a better product mix in terms of sales items as well, so that's all flowing through and will help us get back to 15% EBITDA margins again. That's not the end of the quest; we're going to continue driving out those costs, increasing sales prices, and getting those EBITDA margins higher.
Again, a real strength of ours is our balance sheet. We've got $900 million in assets, $700 million of those assets are tangible. A big part of those tangible assets is working capital. That in absolute terms has increased, but that's not surprising given the expansion in our business, but it's a real focus for us to drive down that efficiency in working capital. This chart shows back in 2020 our working capital was 75% of revenue. We've managed to work that down in terms of improving efficiency, so it's driven down to 42%, which is sort of in line with some of our peer group, and we're targeting 35% going forward. We really want to drive that down so as our sales expand, we're not having to support that with higher working capital. We're targeting our inventory along a couple of areas in terms of the lead times that went long in some of our ventures, that will unwind over the course of the year, and we've got some other working capital optimization that will reduce our receivable days and also extend out the payable days as well. So we're confident we're going to get to that 35%, and that will help us get to that returning capital figure of 15% and again that's going to move higher between the decade.
So the key stones we're talking about along with that more efficient balance sheet, here's the three that allow us to throw $300 to $500 million of free cash flow by 2025. We've got a cash-adjusted EBITDA there of $480 million. There will be an element of working capital outflow, interest, tax we paid, to give us $325 million FCF before capex. Capex we're modeling around $40 million on an annual basis, and I think that's enough for us to replace machines, etc. We've got a good footprint in place, and that will allow us to achieve our $1.3 billion top-line target. That will leave us $200 million of cash generated in terms of capacity. We've also got ABL of $150 million, and that's all the way through to 2026, and we've got $25 million of opening cash, so that's given us capacity to do things with that $375 million. In terms of putting shape to what we want to do with the capital, obviously funding the growth we're seeing and we've talked about this afternoon will require funding. We're going to be really discerning and disciplined in terms of what projects we select using hurdle rates or IRR because it's going to be competing for capital, but that's going to be a key part of our capital allocation. Funding the growth over the next decade, our capex and working capital, dividends we want to increase, we want to increase the return to shareholders. We're looking at 10% increase on an annual basis. I think that's a good way of putting consistent returns back to our shareholders. We talked about M&A, we've modeled $380 million of M&A activity over the decade, $180 million of that by 2025, and $200 million for the remainder of the decade. You can sort of typify that by bolt-on acquisitions around the $50 million mark in areas such as subsea, intelligent completions in the short term, and then we'll look at more non-oil and gas towards the back end of the decade as we diversify away from oil and gas. It's important that these targets can achieve 15% EBITDA margins and be value accretive for us. The buyer's market, I think, is better, we're not seeing the private equity in that space, so there's a bit of an arbitrage from a public company even our multiples compared to the private traded. So I think we're in a good space. As Jim says, you're never quite sure when they're going to land, but we'll keep working at it. And again, we'll look at further shareholder distributions in real time, just how that all plays out, and we'll review them and challenge ourselves in terms of can we make further distributions on that side.
In terms of guidance, we've really tried to be much more transparent in our guidance and also reporting. We've listened to a lot of people in this room saying it's difficult to understand the business, let's try and report that more clearly. We're doing that now through product groups: OCTG, Perforating, Subsea, Advanced Manufacturing, and Other Manufacturing. So we're now rolling that out and breaking down the business by those product groups, trying to help people understand the business model better. We've got to arrange now in EBITDA margins, we also give our range out there in terms of order intake as well. So if you look, pick out a couple of key points, our EBITDA for the year is $900 to $600 million, still confident to achieve that, with total cash in bank before average 16, in positive territory between 0 and 25. We've actually given guidance in terms of 2024, and we're still confident on those figures of $1.25 and $1.35 billion. So that's on the back of improving EBITDA margins, especially in Perforating Systems, Subsea, and Advanced Manufacturing. So we're really pleased with those results, and it's a conference in the results that allows us to put out that guidance to 2024. So if I can summarize the investment case, I think the six pillars: you're going to see good top-line revenue growth over the decade, we're going to improve our EBITDA margins, we're going to throw off a lot of cash, $325 million by 2025 and $1 billion by the end of the decade, we've got that key financial discipline, we're going to drive out costs, and that will help get our return on capital back to 15%, strong balance sheet, it's going to give us that platform for growth, and all in all that's going to help us return cash to our shareholders. So with that, I look forward to reporting on those numbers and helping to deliver.
H
Host2:44:36
The next stage now we're going to go to Q&A for the final Q&A. So we could just ask the guys to pop up and we'll take questions.
Victoria's like this, ready to go.
Thanks very much.
V
Victoria McCullough2:45:19
Thanks very much. Victoria McCullough, RBC again. So could you talk us through the utilization picture from now to 2025 that helps you build these estimates, particularly on the revenue side?
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Jim2:45:34
You want to take that, Bruce? I mean, right now, we're at it in about a mid-40 utilization range. We don't plan on having to do a big expansion to reach those numbers considering the footprint we have today. If you look at the recent announcement we made on Oklahoma City, for example, that closure was partly driven by massive efficiency gains we got in Pampa and in Monterey due to installing robotics and the like. So Bruce, you want to?
B
Bruce Ferguson2:45:57
Yeah, no, the current footprint is enough. In terms of utilization, we can increase the utilizations in terms of shifts. I think also the model now, we've got, we're using a lot of licensees, so mills and third-party licensees, so we can flex that supply chain as well to increase utilization, production, and revenue as well.
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Victoria McCullough2:46:29
Can you remind us where the previous peak of that business was and how much of that was just pipes, so we could compare what we're seeing in this business as a higher margin opportunity?
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Jim2:46:57
Well, the peak was probably 2014. I don't know at that time, the Aberdeen business, Bruce was living there and probably has numbers. It was well over a hundred million dollars of pipe sales just out of Aberdeen off the top of my head. I don't have other details on that. You got it, Bruce?
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Bruce Ferguson2:46:57
Back then it was similar. We're forecasting around that sort of, for $375 to $40 million for this year, and that's probably where we were back in 2014. Considering we don't have Canada, we don't have Aberdeen now, I think that's a good reflection, plus the margins are stronger for the OCTG business now than they were back then as well because we don't have those two businesses.
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Jim2:47:17
In fairness, in 2014 if you go back 10 years ago, anyhow, I know for sure, give Daniel a lot of credit, our Asia Pacific business has really changed dramatically in the last decade, becoming more prevalent for the mix of the OCTG business. And as Bruce mentioned, today's margins on our OCTG business are the best in the company's history.
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Victoria McCullough2:47:39
And just finally, third question. We've seen a lot of collaborations as part of the Hunting investment case and the growth story over the past 12 to 24 months. How much of that makes up the potential M&A which you envision in the future, or part of the potential growth that you have baked into your expectations?
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Jim2:47:59
It really doesn't today factor in on the M&A side. I mean, we've made investments in people like Cumberland, that business is going to continue to grow. We look for them, but it's just hard to predict or model anything like that, it's just kind of impossible. The partners that we're working with now are really, most of them are a lot bigger companies than us, and they're going to be independent, and it's going to be hopefully long-term alliances and things like that that we continue to do.
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Victoria McCullough2:48:25
Great, thanks very much.
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Mick2:48:30
Hi, it's Mick here from Barclays. Firstly on the CCS and geothermal, if I may. A few of us sat through an OCTG presentation yesterday which I'm pretty sure suggested the market was going to be about 500,000 tons by the end of the decade, and they didn't mention high chromium and special alloys once in that situation because they don't make it. But they seem to suggest that they can address the whole market with steel, so what makes you confident it's going to be very high end?
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Jim2:49:00
Yeah, good question. We've done a lot of research on this, we listen to our customers. There's been a lot of pilot projects that started off with very pure CO2, so it's very technical. We know that the trend is towards more and more hubs, and the cost of scrubbing the purity of the CO2 is far bigger than the cost of the material on the downhole side. So our customers are telling us 25 chrome is a better bet, it's safer, you've got long-term integrity issues here that can't risk a problem down the road. So there's a lot of trends towards most of the CO2 injection tubing at least, and the wetted casing at the bottom of these wells will be 25 chrome or higher.
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Mick2:49:49
Okay, and a second question. Well, I've got you all here. I'm not addressed to Jim or Bruce on this one. All your presentations were unique, bespoke, niche, mission-critical, high tolerances, very high-end products, but your target margin is 15%, which to my mind doesn't quite fit with niche, bespoke, and mission-critical. So what's your individual approach to pricing in your business? Because from the outside, 14-15% looks more of a commodity business than the niche business.
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Stewart Barry2:50:25
He asked you guys, so yeah, you're all free to answer. I'll take the lead on it because I really just covered one product with my presentation. So we're still in an IP license agreement, so there is a spread in where the profits go. But we do have options within the agreement to change that along the path, so it may well change in the future. But right now, I didn't put up a percentage here, but initially it's in line with that, but I would expect it to grow based on the revenue numbers that are projected there specifically for OR.
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Jim2:51:17
In the CCS and geothermal, we're seeing more and more trends towards the high end, that's our target. Any of the orders we have delivered, we actually do see higher margins. But there's a balance, so we're being conservative in that sector. And I'm going to answer for Dane because he's not up here right now. On the subsea side of the business, it's really been the story today is one of volume in reintroducing a product line. When I look at the titanium stress joint business, we had to establish credibility with clients that we were a new owner, we could do this, we could deliver internationally as well as in Gulf of Mexico and other areas, and then it was going to be done right. You can't go in there with margins guns blazing and expect somebody to say, 'Oh yeah, let's just do this.' So my point is, we've gotten better in the processes of making those products, and the pricing point has moved because now the acceptance is there and the value proposition has been established with the clients, Mick. So I really believe you're going to see margins accelerate better on the offshore side. I think all of us are fighting coming out of this to get to the nice point where you have absorption versus how much is dropping to the bottom line. One of the slides Bruce had, for example, he showed you the breakeven number, now we've lowered it to something like $400 million, that also helps. And that's what we're seeing in the AMG business, OCTG, subsea, and all of those. So I think 15% can be beat. Bruce can maybe comment on that from a historic perspective.
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Bruce Ferguson2:52:53
Yeah, back probably 2014, I think we were probably touching almost 20% back in those days. So obviously that's where we're aspiring to get back to and ultimately get beyond. But it's just step by step. But you're right, we've got good quality products and we're going to try and maximize that over the next few years.
M
Mick2:53:13
Okay, and then on the international OCTG business, obviously shale takes a lot more OCTG than other areas. You mentioned Argentina, I don't think you mentioned China at any stage, and Saudi is an opportunity. So what's your positioning in those areas please?
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Jim2:53:31
Well, in Argentina, I talked about in my presentation earlier how politically the steel business is, it's the most expensive OCTG pricing in the world, so you figure that one out. On places like Saudi Arabia, you have one client, Aramco, they have long-term mill deals. We don't view Saudi Arabia to be honest as a big OCTG market for us. China was a brilliant case in point of where our Western technology married with Chinese steel is how those orders were captured, because it was offshore, because it was critical. And I think your friends in France made a comment similar to that, talking about the fact that they were leaving the commodity business onshore in China to focus on other areas, and that's what we do as well.
M
Mick2:54:18
Okay, thank you.
A
Alex2:54:22
Just a quick one on the working capital and the 35% target that you had put out there for against revenue. I guess it's going to be heavily dependent on the product mix, but with OCTG growth coming and the end-to-end supply there, how do you plan to balance that and work on those efficiencies to bring that target down?
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Bruce Ferguson2:54:43
The product mix is important because the subsea tends to be advanced payments and that's less onerous on the working capital cycle. But there are things we're working on in terms of currently we're having to pay suppliers up front to secure mill allocations, we're working on that. We're also working on payment terms for some other clients in terms of reducing those payment cycles as well. Other thing we are working on that we mentioned was the working capital optimization pilots we're doing as well. There are opportunities there to bring in accelerate trade receivables, actually for the cost is less than what we borrowed through the ABL, so that again allows us to accelerate those receivables coming through and that's going to help us get that target, Alex.
A
Alex2:55:29
Great, thanks.
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Paul2:55:31
Paul from Investec. With the energy transition business, how are you going to report that? So for example, if you do a carbon capture product in the US, are you going to break that out as a separate reporting line as they go forward?
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Bruce Ferguson2:55:46
I mean, because of our focus on it being OCTG related, we're going to be putting it in the OCTG column. We will identify and tell our investment community out there this is how much is in those energy transition businesses, but it's not set up as a separate business unit.
P
Paul2:56:06
Okay, sorry, so just so I'm clear, my stupidity, the $250 million should be seen as in the context of the $2 billion of revenue, not incremental to the $2 billion of revenue? There's no double counting, I guess that's the question I'm asking. Okay, correct. Thank you.
H
Host2:56:21
Okay, we've got about two more minutes. Anybody? I don't have a question here in the front.
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Richard Holderman2:56:32
Richard Holderman, BTIG. Can I just take you back to the cash flow slide and just understand where your thinking is going in terms of capex through the decade? When you talk about the cumulative $1 billion free cash flow, obviously your definition is before capex. So where are you thinking post-2025 that capex goes in expansion? And how do you think about that just joining the dots on the possibilities for the increased distribution strategy? How do you think that kicks in? At what point does that if you haven't found something to buy that's inorganic, when do you make that decision?
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Jim2:57:10
Those will be decided on a real-time basis. The good news is, if you look back, many of you, Mick and others, we've talked to a long time ago, we made huge investments back in the 2012-2014 range where we had huge investment. I mean $65 million in Houston, $65 million at AmeriPort. I mean we spent a lot of money on facilities, and I'm proud to say that those facilities look today as new as they've ever looked. So what you're at right now is a maintenance part of the program for either replacing equipment as it ages or buying new technology to increase efficiencies from a roofline basis. I don't see a big runway ahead to make expansions over the next five years for sure. I'm hoping I have those problems that we're just so busy, but today we're really not managing or planning huge outlays like that. We have a good footprint whether it's in Pampa, whether it's in Milford. We've done incremental things like bringing on the debt cord facility in Milford. So I think it's going to be really equipment focused. Even the past two years we had kind of an extraordinary purchase where we went and did a consolidated ERP system around the whole company, and most people are pulling their hair out, I'll give credit to our IT group, they did a great job and it was very painless, but that was like a $5 million expenditure just for the ERP system and that integration.
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Richard Holderman2:58:42
So just on that last part, the question is: is it possible that in the reporting of full year 2024 and 2025 you would look at the first possibility of further distribution? So are you talking a year or two further out than that?
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Jim2:58:56
Oh, I think further distribution wise, we're talking. My preference is to increase the dividend. I really don't want to get into share buybacks if that's what you're hitting at right now. If I can't find anything, shame on me to invest in the business. But I just don't think at this point, in our size, we get that bang for the buck. Our goal is to grow the business. We've been around 150 years, we want to be around another 150 years. But it's going to be investment in the business and finding ways to enhance that change that we talk about.
Okay, so let me go up here. I think then we're at the point where my final comments. Again, I think we've highlighted all these points very hard today, and I'm not going to read all of them, they're there, you've seen them a couple times. The key I want you to go away from today is the fact that this is a high technology company. Our industry is a high technology industry, and we're very well positioned to benefit going forward. I'm very pleased to show you the team, some of the other great pieces of this company, the people that make it happen. So you got exposure today to some of the leadership team, which I'm really happy to do. But the future is very bright. I like the old song 'The Future's So Bright, I Need Sunglasses', and I really feel good about where we're at today from a product portfolio, from a cost basis, and from just the outlook the industries we participate in are giving to us. Lastly, I want to thank all of you for being here today and taking the time of a busy day to be here. And I'll end finally, I want special thanks to Ben Willie and his group that put all this together. It's been a tremendous amount of work over the past time getting this event for you all today. So with that, I'm saying goodbye. We have a reception outside, and again, shares are coming, you can't buy them now, but they'll be back on sale tomorrow morning. I was a salesman, I was always told to ask for the order, right? So I'm doing that. So again, thank you for being here.