Videointervista a Frederik Geertman, CEO di Banca IFIS

So we expect an economic cycle that turns a bit for the worse because various macroeconomic factors are creating a headwind: inflation, rising interest rates, and therefore lower economic growth generally means higher NPL production. And our Market Watch actually projects an increase in the coming years in the generation of these NPLs. In the context of these NPLs overall, we are talking about 82 billion in the next three years, which is 10 billion more than we had imagined would be generated in February. So an increase in flow is an increase in availability. So far our industry, which is NPL purchasing, has been very dynamic and has therefore allowed the disposal of this stock of non-performing loans that is being generated. This is what we expect. So even for the next three years, yes, somewhat unfavorable headwind, but a system that still manages to dispose. In general, in the credit sector, what forecasts do you have for the next three years? What I told you is lower economic growth, so probably some selectivity on the banks' side, greater riskiness of portfolios, higher cost of credit – not so much because banks want to increase prices, but because the cost of money is increasing, we have seen the decisions of central banks in recent months. So credit a bit more expensive, credit probably selected, more risky – everything you would expect in a slightly less favorable cycle. This, however, insists – but it must be said, indeed today at the conference we spoke of a conscious optimism. All in all, this insists on an Italian economic fabric that is not particularly fragile today, in the sense that families are relatively liquid and have low indebtedness, companies have had growth in revenues and exports and are also very liquid – there are 400 billion of corporate liquidity in bank current accounts. The banks themselves are robust, profitable and robust. So we have a fabric that can absorb these phenomena, and hence the conclusion that emerged from the conference, without underestimating the importance of the moment, of conscious optimism.

So we have completed 9 months of the three-year plan, so let's start with this statement. We thought we would buy about two and a half per year based on this, based on this forecast. We bought 1.4 in the first half of this year, so we are on track. I must say that even if one year you buy a bit less and the next year you buy a bit more, I think the most important thing is to buy well, so to buy things you know how to manage – in our case small tickets – and to buy them at prices that are correct today. This issue of price has emerged in our debate. The investors, also foreign ones, who came emphasized the importance of reflecting in the prices paid the higher cost of money and a less favorable economic cycle. So we are in line with this purchase program. But it is not this data, the duty to necessarily buy two and a half per year, that will be decisive for our industrial plan.

Nothing has opened up, only a confirmation of an openness to evaluate. We had also said on that occasion, and I reiterate it, that having made a three-year plan based on organic growth and investment in our existing business, working for a while without too many distractions on the program would have been ideal. Then maybe life presents you with an opportunity and you change your mind. So this opportunity has not yet occurred. We are actually carrying out our program from the first year of the plan. I confirm what I said then, that if something adjacent or overlapping with our activities at a reasonable price became available, we would certainly look at it. We have a lot of capital, we are profitable, we are eager to grow, so why not.