Interview mit Asoka Wöhrmann

Yes, it will be a challenging year. 2014 was not as easy as 2013, and there will also be many opportunities this year despite low interest rates, but volatility will be high. How do we deal with that? When ten-year German government bonds are at 0.33 basis points, or 33 basis points, and one must say that is a phenomenon. Many people underestimate that if you do not actively take risks here, you can no longer keep your assets stable. But nevertheless, I think this year there are fantastic opportunities in many other asset classes. In the bond sector I would always say for myself, for diversification, government bonds are certainly indispensable, but there is no longer any return. The safety premium costs so much that you get nothing nominal, you even lose real, but you have liquidity and safety. On the other hand, you have corporate bonds that you have to actively manage this year; the buy-and-hold strategy is definitively over. You have to pursue an active credit strategy, and I think there are enough opportunities to do that this year. You can certainly act with peripheral bonds, with European investment grade, you can also do high-yield bonds if you manage the timing well. So there are numerous possibilities. And then on the other end, you have the defensive equity strategy. I think it's no longer a secret today that the dividend is the secret interest for many, and the dividend yield is already higher than the credit yields of many companies. I think you will pursue a defensive equity strategy; whoever has pursued it has had the dividend yield in mind, and that will certainly work very well this year. But you cannot avoid equities. Whoever, in a zero interest rate environment, thinks they cannot take risks or does not want to take risks, will not be able to stabilize their assets, but will instead lose a little bit each year. And that's a problem because the low interest rate phase is not a one-year phenomenon. We have already had three years of real money losses; we will have to prepare for the same in the next three years. So equities remain the first best choice. We like European equities; valuations are fair, the low euro, the sharply fallen oil price, but also in my opinion the low interest rates help companies to generate good profits, and you want to be part of that. And I think that's it.

Yes, due to the very sharply fallen oil price, it is obvious that one should favor cyclical values and cyclical sectors. That is certainly for us the first and best advice to many: to look into that. There are many opportunities, and one must also say we do not only like European equities; we also like, in my opinion, currency-open American equity positions, but also Asian equities that could certainly be preferred this year due to the very sharply fallen oil price. And also, in my opinion, technology stocks should not be left out. And I think if you have these, let's say, trends in your portfolio, you can get through 2015 well. And volatility must be managed; you have to tame your emotions, but also sometimes, if you are in good profit, think about a reallocation into other asset classes. As I said, volatility is a theme that will accompany us this year, and we have to pay attention to that.