Norbit-sjefen om kanonveksten, bud på Entra og Trumps fredsprat sender gassprisen ned

Good Thursday and welcome to the economic news here at Finansavisen. My name is Marius Lunden, together with stock commentator Karla Manes at Smestad Damen here in Oslo. We have reached February 13th. We are only three and a half hours away from the central bank governor's annual economic perspectives, and before Idar W. Bakke takes the stage at 18:00 at Norges Bank, we will dive into much of what else is happening today. We have a number of quarterly reports: Orkla has released numbers, Norwegian, Komplett, and not least the electronics group Norbit, which is up almost 6% on its numbers today. CEO Per Weisethaunet is in the studio on a day when otherwise there have been figures from Nissan, Sony has had some inflation figures from Germany, British GDP, Statistics Norway has released its oil investment figures, and Aker Carbon Capture, let's say, surges 18% on the news last night that they are paying out 3.5 billion in dividends after the sale of 80% of their business to Slumber SK, now known as SLB Aker Horizon, which is a major shareholder in Aker Carbon Capture. It was up a lot, around 88%, but has fallen and is actually down 6% now. It was 4.5% when I was writing the script earlier, now down almost 7%. Things are happening with real estate funds: Castellum in Sweden is rising by 1% on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, they have announced that they are offering 110.40 SEK to buy the rest of Entra, where they are already a large owner. The Entra share price is around 119 kroner now, up over 88% today. Otherwise, Norwegian is down 2.5% on its quarterly figures and news about dividends later this year, so we'll see if they can clarify the restrictions in the loan agreement. But it will come either in the form of cash or buybacks, the company has promised. Norwegian also just got the news from the government that the climate department is appealing this so-called climate quota case, which involves about half a billion kroner for Norwegian. Orkla has released figures today, up almost 5%, and they are also selling the underwear brand Piero Bær for 23 million to Jotunfjell Partners. In the analysts' spreadsheets, Piero Bær is valued at over 200 million, so basically free, an analyst tells us. More on that later. Otherwise, especially oil stocks today: Equinor down over 2%, Vår Energi down 4%, and I mentioned Orkla up on its figures, Komplett down. Karla, we need to go a bit south and a bit east on our own continent to find the answer to why oil stocks, including the oil price which is down about 1% today, are falling so much.

We need to go a bit south and a bit east on our own continent to find the answer to why oil stocks, including the oil price which is down about 1% today, are falling so much. And it's not just the inflation figures we got from the US yesterday, but also some statements from Donald Trump about phone calls with, if not Kremlin, at least Vladimir Putin. Yes, it seems to be moving towards some kind of peace solution between Ukraine and Russia, and that's interesting because there is a timeline towards April 20th. Two months until then, and there is a lot that will happen before that. There is the election in Germany on February 23rd, which is not that long away, and there is the security conference in Munich. And for safety's sake, an Afghan asylum seeker tried to bowl with 25 Germans using a car in Munich. That's not good. But before we get to April, Israel will also attack Iran, and yes, I'm pretty sure they have to do it now because Russia is diverted and won't come down to Syria again, and that's probably part of the deal with Putin as well, that Israel has a few months to take out Iran. But then Putin will meet the Shahid drones inside? So they won't come out stronger from that. And I can just imagine Donald Trump after Israel and the US attack Iran, saying it's a pity that so many beautiful people have to walk around dressed in full-body covering, loss, covering guidelines. Yes, I thought it was interesting, a bit of a sign. A lot is coming. I don't know if we should call it policy initiatives, but at least a lot of statements are coming that are interesting to note. Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram was in Brussels at this NATO defense ministers' meeting and said that it is unrealistic for Ukraine to expect to return to pre-2014 borders. That is probably code for Crimea is gone. While Donald Trump in the White House said that he hasn't decided anything yet, so they left the terrain open. So they will meet, Trump and Vladimir, in Saudi Arabia with Crown Prince MBS, who seems to be a kind of NAV in all this. Yes, the great irony is that a party Trønder, Hegseth, is going to pull the US out of NATO. That's a record for a Trønder before we get more Trønders. No, but Hegseth is a party Trønder, we must be allowed to say that. He has been given credit there, he has documented it, and it's because he has a job that we call Helge Person something. So yes, there are many things happening. And now Donald has announced the reciprocal tariff, i.e., retaliation, today at 1 pm in Washington, he will issue new tolls and tariffs. And then it's probably about pharmaceuticals, cars, and such things. And he says, 'If they charge, charge them.' And it probably smells like European cars going into the US. The EU has 12% the other way. So it could be that there will be some tariffs on European cars going into the US, even though European manufacturers are very happy to produce their cars in the US, and they have been doing so for many, many years.

So there are many things happening. And now Donald has announced the reciprocal tariff, i.e., retaliation, today at 1 pm in Washington, he will issue new tolls and tariffs. And then it's probably about pharmaceuticals, cars, and such things. And he says, 'If they charge, charge them.' And it probably smells like European cars going into the US. The EU has 12% the other way. So it could be that there will be some tariffs on European cars going into the US, even though European manufacturers are very happy to produce their cars in the US, and they have been doing so for many, many years. And they also want to increase the debt ceiling by $4 trillion to give tax cuts to the richest. That's how it is in the US now, it's a divided society with very strong calibration. But Donald gets to run this course until it goes wrong. The Ford CEO has already warned that so far it's only increased costs and chaos. And the safety net here is the Senate. There are 100 senators, and if more than 60 senators think this is going wrong, for example if Canada doesn't want to become a state and shuts off the electricity to the New England area, giving them Norwegian conditions with very high electricity prices, then Donald Trump can be impeached. So this experiment he is doing to try to turn it into a monarchy works as long as the economy is good, but so far if it's only increased costs and chaos, there are safety mechanisms in the system that will stop him. You see Elon Musk is being stopped with everything. But when you start making rules where you can be very clever, then others can be clever too. Then you get what you call the Robert Barron society, which we have had before, and these people hate each other and fight over the cakes that are there, and then it becomes chaos.

We must point out that I mentioned that Vår Energi was down a lot, Equinor and Vår Energi down almost 5% now. They have a large gas export. The gas price, as analyst Ole Valby at SB1 Markets says to FA now this afternoon, this talk about the Ukraine peace agreement is sending gas prices in Europe down almost 10% now to 51 euros per megawatt hour. Still a historically high price, but it has been much higher recently. Equinor said interestingly at their Capital Markets Day in London recently, as we have discussed, that they expect that if Europe politically wants to open for gas imports from Russia again in connection with some kind of peace deal, then technically it is possible to bring in around 35 billion cubic meters annually. We note that now it's zero. Then of course there is LNG on top, but at the most just before the pandemic, it was up to 200 billion cubic meters. Norway is at around 100. It's not natural that these volumes will be the same as before. And Russia also needs income from energy. Moscow is without electricity now. You can't have a superpower without electricity. So at some point, Russia must get some. But they are clever. Scott Bent has been in Ukraine. And they are going to get $500 billion in minerals. And Trump is like quicksilver. Suddenly he says, 'Yes, but for us to get $500 billion, the minerals are in Donbas, Luhansk, so we need that area, and maybe we also need Crimea because there are also many minerals. So now you are allowed to start exporting oil and gas again, and we'll take care of the rest because it's too much work, and you can keep doing that, and we can be allowed to export gas, and we'll find a peace solution. But Ukraine is allowed to be Ukraine, and we in the US will take the rare earths and everything else, we keep everything. And then Zelenskyy will be replaced, and you'll get Saakashvili back from London. He is on hold in London, an early general. So that could also be part of the package, that you get a new head of state in Ukraine. There are many balls in the air. But for Trump to be able to stay in power, he must create growth for others than just oligarchs, because the system is such that it's not so easy to be a dictator in the US for very long. You have to push results to everyone. Then there is the congressional election. Yes, it's under a year, I should say, then everyone is up for election, or the Senate, the Senate is the most important. The Senate is up for election. We will, in any case, go from the party Trønders to the tech Trønders, I guess we should say. We'll have a short break, then come back with Norbit right after.

This after setting a new revenue record in 2024 of 1.75 billion, tech success Norbit promises more this year, at least 2.2 billion with a steady and fine margin as last year of at least 20%. Per Weisethaunet, CEO of Norbit, welcome.

So I must first ask you, because we were actually supposed to have the pleasure of having you a bit earlier, but you got a concussion, and since you are the CEO of a company that many have invested in, I have to ask how your health is.

Good to have you back. We can maybe start with that you have been down at Arctic today and presented here in the city. You grew 40% in the fourth quarter, that was not as much as the rest of the year, but still solid growth. And the growth you are planning for next year, i.e., into 2025, is at least 25%. Yes, can we break it down a bit? You have different divisions. You deliver to contract electronics and others. You have what we can call a Mariam Ocean part, and you also have organic and M&A. Maybe you should start with that first: is all 25% organic growth, or do you expect to buy some growth here, in what we have said today?

Yes, it should be possible to calculate on Norbit. So it must be that what we have today, we will deliver in that size. Take us a bit through that, right? As I mentioned, you have Oceans connectivity, PIR, product innovation and realization. Is the growth fairly even across all? They are not the same size these divisions, but is the growth roughly similar, or are there any that stand out on the downside?

Have you seen, if you look at Note and Kitron, which do a lot of electronics production, Note came with a profit warning not long ago, about half a year ago. Kitron has also talked about that especially Eastern Europe, or parts of Europe, was weaker than in the Nordics. Yes, I think I see some of the same trends?

Karla, we have asked both the CEO of Nordic Semiconductor and others about the relationship between Europe and North America. You have production on both sides of the Atlantic? Actually, most of our production is in Norway, we are a bit 'Made in Norway'. But you have some facilities in North America, primarily sales and marketing organization, and service support. But I think if Donald Trump came here and looked at the trade balance with Norbit, he would be happy. Norbit buys more from the US than it sells to the US, so we would probably get an exemption from the tariff that is coming at 1 o'clock, I think, if we get to make a deal.

It has had very strong growth, but it's kind of jerky growth. Suddenly now you have 180 million kroner higher revenue in the fourth quarter, from 372 to 556. What happened this quarter? What new products came in now?

You are also exposed to defense and security. We had Geir Håøy, the CEO of Kongsberg Gruppen, and he performed a bit. You see these enormous billion orders, but much of it lies far back in time and takes a long time to realize. But I asked him when Trump and NATO repeated this in Brussels this week, it's 5% of GDP as the new target. Yes, Geir Håøy said that you can feel it this year or next year. Yes, we can because the simplest thing is to just order more of something you have. You order a bit more air defense, a bit more NSM. Right, and you see the US already doing that. Can you notice anything as a result of this pressure? You see Ursula von der Leyen also quite open that EU spending on defense must also increase. Can the whole security and defense lift you a bit this year or next year?

That's it. For those who have invested in you, this has been a fantastic investment, we must say. It depends a bit on whether you count with dividends. Over the last 5 years, it's 463% or 532% including dividends, and last year it's around 70% depending on dividends. Now you are saying 2 kroner plus 1 kroner extra dividend, so 3 kroner. Last year it was 2.55. Was that just ordinary or with extra? That was extraordinary included. So you have a total increase. That's about three-quarters of net profit, isn't it? Yes, that's correct. What can you say about the choice between that and dividends? I assume you have plenty of development projects you could use money on internally, you talk about using three-digit million amounts on that last year.

Per Weisethaunet, thank you very much. Have a safe trip back to Trøndelag and good luck further. We will invite again. At the end of the broadcast, I just wanted to mention that the main index hinted a bit from the bottom we saw today, down 0.2%. Aker Carbon Capture still solid in plus with Aker Horizons hanging well down in minus. And we are also keeping an eye on Castellum and Entra, where an offer has been put on the table. Also worth noting, Orkla released figures today, still up 4.5%. But Norbit is up a good 6.5%. In Finansavisen tomorrow, you can read Trygve Hegnar's editorial about an explosion in bond subsidies. You can read about a bargain an investor made in Sats, about Ken luxury on forced sale in the real estate market, and about an FG in electronics sales in the country this year. That's it for this broadcast. Tomorrow is Friday, so we are on air again with the economic news at 1:30 PM. Before that, it's Børsmorgen at 8:50 AM. The CEO of Tommer will be with us, the CEO of Folketrygden will also come, and there will be quarterly reports from companies like Aker, Hydro, Autoliners, and Ton Eiendom. And don't forget, YouTube celebrates 20 years tomorrow. Time flies, both generally and especially when you're on YouTube. But that's partly the point. Also follow FA.no at 6 PM tonight to get everything about the annual speech at Norges Bank. My name is Marius Lunden. Thank you for following. Have a great Thursday. See you.