Andy Thomas10:39
Thank you very much, Simon. In this section, I'm going to talk about the outlook and about the factors driving demand for our products and services. I'll show you how the existing order book runs off over the rest of the year and beyond, I'll say a word or two about the EM Solutions acquisition, and then I'll round off with a summary. The two main driving forces for demand in defense equipment remain very much in place: the continuing conflict in Ukraine and the influence of growing Chinese assertiveness from the Indian Ocean to Australasia. Adding to that mix now is the widening instability and conflict in the Middle East. I'll start with the impact of these factors on our export markets. The conflict in Central Europe has driven demand directly as NATO countries seek to help Ukraine resist the Russian invasion, and it's also made those countries think again about the balance of their defense forces and equipment. Many of the lessons they've learned and the conclusions they've drawn are relevant to us. The increasing importance of electronic warfare, the need to counter drones of all kinds, the need for accurate and timely battlefield intelligence have all had a positive effect for us on both orders and prospects. The conflicts in the Middle East don't have the same direct impact as the other factors, but they are symptomatic of the wider tensions in the region, primarily between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies, and that's likely to drive further regional defense spending in what remains an important market for us. In Asia, Chinese assertiveness has not yet manifested itself in outright warfare, but the clear threat is there, and they have instigated violent episodes around the South China Sea. That behavior has had a very strong effect on defense policy and defense spending right across the Indo-Pacific region. One very visible result has been the creation of the tripartite AUKUS alliance between the UK, the US, and Australia, and we fully expect to contribute to the new AUKUS submarines in due course. Our new close relationship with Australia through the acquisition of EM Solutions can only help with that. There are also many opportunities in what's termed Pillar Two of AUKUS, which is focused on new technologies, including for instance underwater detection and countering hypersonic missiles, both of which are very relevant to our capabilities. Chinese aggression and investment in its defense forces has had an impact on order intake and opportunities elsewhere in the region, for instance in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Japan remains committed to a doubling of its national security spending as a share of GDP by 2027, and it's also joined the Anglo-Italian Next Generation Combat Aircraft project, which bodes well for the opening up of a market that has historically been dominated by the United States. In our domestic markets, we've seen similar effects. The UK's defense review is ongoing and we expect to see its conclusions in 2025, but the government has already committed to increasing defense spending to 2.5% of GDP. In Germany, we can see the impact of the step change in defense spending that's taking place. Our German business is already supplying specialist hydroacoustic equipment for new German surface ships and submarines, and we're optimistic that we will be able to take on a more prominent role with the German Navy in the coming months. Finally, in Portugal, we've seen some long-awaited orders coming in, and we're optimistic that there are more to come.
If we can move on to the next slide, Andy. I wanted to emphasize that we are investing to respond to those changes in demand pattern. We're increasing capacity at both Chess and SEA by expanding and reorganizing our facilities there, and Elac will be moving into a brand new custom-built facility next autumn. You may remember if you were on one of these calls at this time last year, this picture that Simon showed taken last year in a snowy Kiel showing a large hole in the ground which was the beginning of that work. The work has moved on rather significantly since then. Andy, if we could have the next slide. Yeah, as you can see, construction has come a long way. You can see the main office building on the left and on the right the test tank building, and that sits on top of what was that very large hole, and that's where the new digital sonars will be tested. Elac is on course to be ready to move into that new facility next autumn. Now, not withstanding those investments, our overheads will not increase in proportion to our growing revenue, and so we expect to see further margin improvements in the years ahead, driven by that operational gearing as well as other factors. So if we can move on to the next slide, Andy. I mentioned that we continue to see some good opportunities, and I wanted to share a few of them with you. At Elac, we're expecting to receive an order for the sonar suite for the fourth of the four new Italian submarines being built early next year. We already have orders for the first three, and together with some other changes, this will bring the total contract value to around 100 million euros. Elac is trading that contract very cautiously at the moment, but as we get closer to delivery, we hope to be able to release some of the risk contingencies, and the addition of the fourth boat will naturally give another boost to the overall contract margin. Elac is also in discussions with the German Navy about upgrades to anti-submarine sonars on some of its surface ships, and that would be an important step forward with its domestic customer. Most of Elac's recent larger orders have been for export customers. Elac is also focusing on several major submarine programs in Europe, Canada, and Asia. EID, having won some large orders early in the year, is in discussion with the Portuguese Navy to provide communications for its new fleet of offshore patrol vessels. EID also sees some promising naval export opportunities through a growing partnership with the Dutch shipyard Damen. Following its initial success in Asia, SEA has multiple opportunities to provide its CRS sonar system to export customers. It's also in discussions with BAE Systems and others about contributing to the next generation of the UK and Australia's nuclear submarines. SEA's also in discussions with several customers about its Ancilia decoy launch system, and it's recently announced a partnership with the Danish company Terma to offer a complete anti-missile system for naval ships.
Our business MCL sees several large potential prospects from urgent operational requirements. Mass is in discussions for a new iteration of its long-term contract to design and run large-scale military exercises. Chess sees considerable short-term opportunities for its optical tracking system for countering drones. It has a very successful partnership with Rheinmetall and is building other partnerships too. In the slightly longer term, Chess's combined radar and optical tracker for naval users is creating a lot of interest in the market. With the acquisition of EM Solutions likely to complete in the near future, we'll be looking to investigate new opportunities with them as well. We already know that they have a promising list of opportunities in Australia, Europe, and East Asia. Now, I should say that all of these things I've talked about are prospects rather than orders, so it's by no means certain that we're going to win them all, and also uncertain is the value of each and the timing. So what I'm trying to do here, rather than give you a precise and accurate picture of our future revenue, is to paint a picture of the pattern of strong demand and opportunity for the group that we see emerging from the geopolitical factors that I talked about a few minutes ago. So I've talked in broad terms about markets and opportunities, and this slide now shows the tangible results of the demand picture that I've described. At over 540 million pounds, Cohort's period-end order book is stronger than it has ever been before. It includes a very substantial element that will feed directly into revenue this year and next, but it also includes over 280 million pounds of order cover for 2026, 2027, and beyond, guaranteeing a solid flow of revenue well into the next decade. The larger part of our order book continues to sit with the Sensors and Effectors division, unsurprisingly because of their range of attractive products for very long-term maritime programs. In Communications and Intelligence, MCL tends to operate naturally on a short-term order book, so its contribution to the total is quite modest. Mass's order book is substantial, but only increases significantly in years when its large long-term service contracts are renewed. EID's order book has strengthened considerably in the last half year, and there are still some good opportunities with its domestic and export customers to come. The picture you can see here of the Communications and Intelligence division's order book will be significantly enhanced when EM Solutions joins the group, because it'll become part of that division and it will bring with it a large order book as well as that strong opportunity pipeline.
If we could have the next slide, Andy. Now here you can see the first column of the run-off in that chart that I've just shown in numbers, together with a comparison against the same position last year. The growth in the total order book from October last year to this is from 354 million to 541 million, that's over a 50% increase, and that's a really strong indicator of the potential for future revenue growth. The two shaded columns show the revenue that's already on order for the second half year compared to the same position in 2022, and you can see that both divisions have got a significantly better underpinning than was the case last year. There was an improvement of about 15% in Sensors and Effectors, but it's especially dramatic in Communications and Intelligence where the order cover for the second half has grown by more than 70%. Overall, more than 99% of the consensus revenue forecast for the year is now either delivered in the first half or on order for the second half. If we come to the next slide, Andy. So everything I've talked about so far refers to the existing group of six businesses reporting through our two divisions, but we fully expect to see an important contribution in the second half from the exciting acquisition that we announced last month of EM Solutions. It's a very significant transaction for us. It'll have a big impact on our product range, on our technological capability, on our geographical footprint, and not least on our financial performance. Based in Brisbane in Australia, EM Solutions offers highly capable satellite communications terminals primarily for naval surface ships, and that is a challenging technology to develop because the terminals need to stay locked onto satellites as a ship moves potentially in heavy seas, quite violently. These products are fully complementary to the group's existing offerings, they even interface directly to products that are offered by EID and SEA. Demand for satellite communications is growing, particularly for advanced navies like those in Australia and the NATO countries, and it's likely that that growth is going to be accelerated with the increasing use of uncrewed vessels that need long-range digital communications to control them and to feedback the information they gather. This acquisition is going to be the first time that we've been involved in the important area of defense space technology, and so bringing EM Solutions into the group is going to give us access to an important new stream of revenue growth over time. The balance of our output as a group has already moved more and more towards the maritime market, and this acquisition will add another important family of naval systems products to the portfolio, enabling us to offer packages of systems to shipbuilders and integrators. Very importantly, bringing EM Solutions into the group will have geography-based advantages in both directions. Our position as a domestic supplier in three NATO nations and our strong export relationships will help them in markets that have become very important to them. For the existing group, having a footprint in Australia and being part of the sovereign Australian defense industry will greatly enhance our access to that important customer. We're optimistic that transaction could complete as early as the end of this month. We're working on that now. If it doesn't, then it won't be long after. Simon and I visited Australia at the end of November to meet with the management and the employees of EM Solutions and also for talks with the Navy and with the Australian defense procurement agency, and those were very successful. We're looking forward to bringing this great new member of the group into Cohort, because it'll have a really big effect.
Okay, so if I can have the final slide, Andy. I would just like to give you a summary and say a little about the outlook. The summary is it's been a very pleasing period in terms of performance that sets us up very well for the year as a whole. We're not going to rest on our laurels, we're already onto the next thing, but we are very pleased to have grown once again the size and strength of the group in this period. One consequence of that is that we've been able to increase our interim dividend once more by 10%. The acquisition of EM Solutions will take Cohort to the next stage of its development. It will be a good deal financially, materially accretive to adjusted EPS in the first full year of ownership, and it will broaden our product range, our technical capacity, and our geographical footprint in a very beneficial way as I've described. We're very grateful for the support that we received from investors in the placing, and that's enabled us to do this acquisition without weakening our balance sheet, giving us the flexibility to invest in facilities, in product development, and if more good ones emerge, in future value-adding acquisitions. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we've achieved another record order book and we see an excellent pipeline of further opportunities ahead. Achieving order intake materially higher than revenue, which we've done again, is a strong leading indicator of future growth. It clearly shows that there is strong demand, that our products are competitive in what is still a market of very capable players. So it's an optimistic picture looking forward. That's what I had to say. Thank you very much for your attention, and we're now very happy to try and answer your questions, which Andy is going to tell us about.