Eben Upton38:12
I think if I had my time again, yeah, I would, what wouldn't I give today for a million, you know, for an extra million well of any of the Raspberry Pi ships actually, BCM2711 which is what we used for Pi 4s, but what would I give for another million of any of those chips. And of course it should have been obvious, right? The core dynamic was a pandemic happened, everyone assumed there would be a massive recession so stopped ordering. Businesses assumed there would be a massive recession so they went into destocking mode. At the same time, everyone was at home needing electronic equipment to continue to butt society, and also in most certainly European and North America having their income protected by various government schemes and also unable to spend money on services. So you have the same income but you can no longer go on holiday or go to a restaurant, so what are you going to do? You're going to buy consumer durables. And so it was that pair of transients, the negative going supply transient and the positive going demand transient, were, if you sat someone down in a business school class and you described the situation to them in those terms, of course they would tell you what was going to happen. But at the time when we were in the thick of it, and of course a lot of us were focusing on not getting COVID, nobody called this one right. The big car companies didn't call this one right.
So yeah, if I had buy time again, obviously I would, what would I like? I'd maybe have liked somebody to talk me through it in business school terms because then I could have spotted what I needed to do. So towards the end of 2020, you see things start to come apart. So you see first blowouts in component lead times. Components that you would expect to be able to get on 20 week lead times going out to 52 week lead times. We were pretty quick in getting orders on in that environment, but obviously if lead times instantaneously blow out by say three months in one day, it's inevitably going to create a three-month void in your supply chain. There's no way you can get orders on fast enough to fill that 3 months. It's just an instantaneous hole. And it's not like there are parts, it's not like you have warehouses full of parts in China sitting waiting to go. Stuff comes in and it gets stuck on boards and the boards go out. And you have some inventory, I mean you have some component inventory on any given day, you have some component inventory, and you have some finished goods inventory, and your downstream channel has some inventory, and industrial customers of that downstream channel have some inbound inventory which is your finished product. So there's lots of inventory slushing around in the system, but no, it's certainly not the case that you have millions of units of every component that you need to build a Raspberry Pi. So you have this kind of blowout.
Then once you get back into a situation where your orders that you've placed that were now 52 week lead time arrive, you end up in an allocation situation. So you end up in a situation where even though you have orders on, you don't get supplied at one to one ratio because the total aggregate demand exceeds the total aggregate production capacity, and so the only thing you can really do is to give everyone a haircut. So that was the kind of inbound situation for us, which has persisted really up to the present moment. It's a situation which is now improving quite rapidly, and I think what we said when we gave an update in December was broadly the first calendar quarter of this year is pretty tough. It has some bright spots, and I think if you go on our locator you'll see what some of those bright spots are right now, things like Raspberry Pi 3A plus. Later in this quarter we'll see Raspberry Pi Zero, we'll see a significant improvement in Raspberry Pi Zero availability, which is of course kind of cool because it's still my favorite Raspberry Pi product, Zero W. So we'll see some improvement over the course of this quarter, but it's still a constrained quarter. Next quarter is broadly speaking a pre-pandemic quarter.
So you can see next quarter as being one and a half to two million units of inbound inventory across the various components that we use, but because you have backlogs you need to do better than that. So that's enough to keep up but it's not enough to start to get back. So I think what you'll see in the second quarter, much better availability, but a continuation of things like single unit limits for consumers, and what we call active management for our industrial customers, where a customer orders something, and rather than just taking their order, we go back to them and we actively say to them, do you really need that many units? It's anti-sales. We have sales people here doing anti-sales. Oh, so can I have 10,000 Raspberry Pis? Well, would a thousand Raspberry Pis each month for 10 months be enough? You know, because you're trying to detect inventory building, what we call kind of toilet roll hoarding in the context of the pandemic.
Because that will destroy that, you know, even if you have a sufficient supply, that kind of beggar-thy-neighbor behavior which is totally understandable and totally defensible, and I would absolutely be doing it if I was buying these units, you have to find ways to help people. It's not about stopping people doing it, it's about making your industrial customers comfortable that if they don't do it, they'll be fine, that we will look after them, that they can disclose their true demand to us, and that we will use that in a good way to help make sure that they don't go lines down, rather than in a bad way to give them a haircut. So you'll see that those behaviors will persist through Q2, but it will be a good environment but it will be a heavily managed environment. And then from Q3 onwards this year, we effectively have an unlimited supply of pretty much everything we need to make Raspberry Pis. That will allow us to catch up on our backlogs and then get back into the situation we want to be in, which is where we don't actually need to touch our customers so much, we can just put units in channel. The dream with Raspberry Pi, and where we were for nine out of 11 years in the market, we've been in a situation where there are hundreds of thousands to millions of units of Raspberry Pi in channel, and if you wake up one morning as a hobbyist and you want 10, you can have them. If you wake up as an industrial customer and you want 100,000, you can have them. And that kind of law of large numbers averaging effect means that actually not many people wake up on a given day and want 100,000 units, and therefore you can pull from the channel and it's as if there's an infinite supply of Raspberry Pi.