Why the World Needs 3× More Energy — And Why It's Possible | Toby Rice [ARC 2026]

Good afternoon, everybody. My name is Toby Rice, and I have a confession I'd like to make. I am an unapologetic energy abundance enthusiast. I currently serve as the CEO of EQT, America's natural gas champion, where every day we produce over a million barrels a day of energy in natural gas form to provide energy abundance to the developed world. I'm also the founder of a nonprofit called Energy Core, where we bring energy abundance to emerging markets. Now, I've been a leader of the shale revolution that took place in the United States, I've witnessed the transition from energy scarcity to energy abundance. And as the CEO of a fossil fuel business during the ESG movement, I've witnessed the transition from energy abundance back to scarcity. I'd like to share with you today my experiences and my views on what energy abundance means and what it takes to deliver it.

I entered the oil field as a floorhand on a workover rig before starting my energy business with my brothers called Rice Energy with a goal to bring energy abundance to America. We moved to Appalachia, and we discovered one of the biggest natural gas fields in the world, and quickly grew production to an amount of energy that would be able to power over 45 million homes. Simultaneously, we were able to lower the natural gas bills for every single house in America. That's what creating abundance looks like.

Our success at Rice Energy ultimately translated to a sale to EQT in 2017. I found myself out of a job, wondering what I was going to do next. I wasn't exactly sure what that was going to be, but I did know one thing: I wanted to spend the next phase of my life making an impact in this world. I spent a year researching the most impactful way for me to do that. Then the path forward became very clear when I saw these charts. I knew exactly what I was going to do. The more energy people use, the higher the quality of life, the longer they live. Energy enables human flourishing. So, if you want to make an impact in this world, find a way to bring more energy into it. Find energy abundance. This was a eureka moment for me. I said, 'Hey, I can help do these things.' So, I ran to the CEO of EQT and I asked him if I could come back to work. And he said, 'No.' But I'm on a mission. So, I went to the shareholders of EQT and they said, 'Yes.'

When I rejoined EQT in 2019 as the CEO and came back, I realized that a new force had emerged arresting our abundance and flatlining our ability to produce energy. The net-zero movement, while this may not have been intended, created a world where energy had become the enemy and scarcity was celebrated. Energy infrastructure that was once built with no issues suddenly was getting blocked, canceled, and opposed. Energy facilities that produced power were now getting shut down and retired at an accelerated rate. But maybe this was all according to plan. After all, we were promised cheaper electricity and lower emissions. How have we done on that front? Energy bills are increasing. This is what energy scarcity looks like in the developed world. What about emissions? Despite trillions of investments in clean energy, despite billions in blocking energy infrastructure, emissions in this world are still going up. Despite the leadership we see in the US and the EU in lowering emissions. This is not working. But we need to stop fighting about this. We need to find common ground and move forward together.

I spent a lot of time traveling the world talking about energy and climate, searching for that common ground. I've spoken to environmental activists, I've spoken to world leaders, even had the opportunity to meet with the King of England himself here in London. I am noticing a change over the last year. Big climate advocates, especially the most intelligent ones, they are recalibrating. Take Bill Gates for example, author of the book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster. This last year, Mr. Gates made quite a stir when he released a new essay called Three Truths About Climate: Is There Common Ground Here? The first truth was Bill's attempt to stop the fear. Climate change is an issue, but it's not going to destroy humanity. That's a message that we all need to spread. That's common ground. The second point, progress is not going to be measured by degrees. That's common ground. And his third point is probably the most impactful one. If you want to protect people from the impacts of climate change, find ways to make them more prosperous. Boom. That is such an important piece of ground. Let's build on that or in the oil field, let's rig up on that and let's drill down on how to make people more prosperous.

What's the best way to make people more prosperous? You guessed it. Energy, energy, energy. If you want to make the world wealthier, you want to bring more prosperity into this world, energy abundance is the solution. But this is not just about prosperity. Energy abundance to me really means four things. There are four benefits of energy abundance. Starting with number one, energy abundance means we protect our energy advantage. That means our families, our communities, and our businesses have the energy they need that's affordable and reliable. Number two, energy abundance means we extend our technological leadership. That means things like the West and our allies have all the energy they need so that they can win the AI race. Three, energy abundance means we provide energy security for our allies. As recent events have shown, global energy security is national security. Every country is faced with the impacts of these geopolitical events.

On that note, energy abundance, if you're a bad actor and you weaponize energy like what Russia has done to Europe, or you translate your energy sales into bombs, terror, or tyranny, energy abundance will give us the freedom to replace that influence with the influence and energy of our allies. This will create a more stable energy environment. But the fourth benefit of energy abundance is the most important one. Energy abundance is going to allow us to eliminate poverty and empower humanity. Right now, while the developed world struggles with soaring energy bills, billions in this world live in energy poverty and they're not making much progress. They lack the access to energy that powers opportunity, productivity, and brings prosperity. If a civilization is measured by how we take care of our world's most vulnerable, then getting these individuals access to a suitable level of energy is one of the biggest challenges and opportunities of our time.

How much energy would it take for us to empower these individuals? We would need to triple the amount of energy that's produced and consumed in this world. That's the abundance target. We need to triple the amount of energy that's produced and consumed in this world. And if we can do that, the amount of wealth that we're going to create in this world would increase our global GDP five times over. In addition to the human flourishing benefits of lifting billions out of poverty. So, whether you care about energy, you care about business, or you care about simply making the world a better place, you should care about bringing energy abundance into this world.

Now, we need to do some recalibrating of our own before we launch into achieving energy abundance. Clearly, a sum-of-the-above approach to energy has failed, and we need to move to an all-of-the-above approach if we want to triple the amount of energy that's produced and consumed in this world. But, if we want to achieve abundance quickly and efficiently, all-of-the-above is not going to cut it. We need to move to a best-of-the-above approach, and that means we're focusing our resources on unleashing the best energy solutions. How are we going to grade energy? Energy is going to be a combination of what's affordable, reliable, clean, and for abundance, solutions need to be bigger, and they need to demonstrate that they can get better. Now, the world is in a tough place right now. Where can we find these solutions? These solutions exist, and let me tell you a little story. 20 years ago, the United States found itself in a very similar situation that we find ourselves in today. We were energy dependent, and we weren't the only ones. And while some looked to the stars in the skies for their energy security, which is a romantic concept, I must admit, in the United States, we look to the oil field. And with innovative technology like hydraulic fracturing and unconventional horizontal drilling, with relentless determination, we cracked the code on shale, and we transformed America from being energy dependent to an energy powerhouse on the world stage.

We made our energy bigger. Arresting the decline in conventional production, shale has taken the United States to the world's largest oil and gas producer. We made our energy better. The innovation that we've seen in shale — we've seen a 25-fold increase in the efficiencies as measured by productivity per rig. And scale, let's put that into perspective because we hear a lot about the exponential growth that we see from wind and solar. That's been amazing to see the growth that they've put in place. But putting the scale of US shale into perspective, US shale dwarfs all other energy solutions. Our success in creating energy abundance for America is now overflowing and creating energy abundance for the world. The best representation of that is what we're doing with our US liquefied natural gas, US LNG. In less than 10 years, we've gone from exporting zero LNG to becoming the world's largest. That speaks to the speed and scale at which we can deliver these energy abundant solutions. And we're just getting started. Market forces are lined up to increase our US LNG by 50% over the next 5 years. Which begs the question, how big could this solution be?

Thanks to the shale revolution, we have enough resource in place that would allow us to create a natural gas surplus of over 60 BCF a day of natural gas, and we can sustain those levels of production for over 30 years. That's reliability. And on the affordability price question, how much would this cost? With a $4 natural gas price in the US, we can put this energy on the doorstep of the world for a price of $10. Is that affordable? $10 natural gas is the energy equivalent of $60 oil, and believe me, you can build some pretty kick-ass economies with $60 oil. And as far as the scale is concerned, 60 BCF a day may not mean a lot to the normal person, but let me give you some perspective. 60 BCF a day is the energy equivalent of adding 10 million barrels a day of clean energy to the world stage. It's like adding another Saudi Arabia. This is a massive opportunity. It exists.

And it's foolish to think that these opportunities only exist within the United States. These energy abundance solutions exist around the world. This is a map of shale. It's everywhere. It's improbable to think that the United States is the only country that can crack the code on shale, and others are working to make it happen. 5 years ago, I had a conversation with the head of a Chinese energy business, and he was explaining to me the struggles that he was going through as he was trying to crack his natural resources. After hearing him describe spending hundreds of millions of dollars without much to show for it, I asked him straight up. I said, 'Hey, I don't think this is going to work out for you. Do you ever consider throwing in the towel?' I waited for the translator to translate, and he put his hand out and silenced the room. He took his glasses off, leaned across the table, looked me dead in the eye, and he said, 'We will never give up.' It sent chills through my spine, but that is the attitude of abundance. And now China, once considered resource-poor, is producing more natural gas than resource-rich Canada. Which has been a poster child for the attitude of energy scarcity.

Abundance is possible. It's also necessary. The world is certainly going to be dealing with a lot of issues, and what you guys are all discussing today are all the risks that we see in the future. One thing that's clear is that this world needs more human intelligence helping to solve the world's hardest problems to move civilization forward. Right now, only a billion of us on this planet have a level of access to energy that affords us a lifestyle to sit in rooms like this. Billions are trapped behind a wall of energy poverty. Energy abundance is a wrecking ball that will knock down that wall of poverty and allow us to enlist billions to help join us in solving these problems and making the world a better place. So, how do we make this happen? It's very simple. Demand it, supply it, and achieve it. Demand it. Demand the benefits of abundance starting with demanding that your energy bills get lower. Demand that your leaders embrace an attitude of abundance and reject an attitude of scarcity. Demand that policies that enable scarcity are replaced with policies that enable abundance. If you are in a position of influence with time, treasure, or talent, invest. Help us supply abundance. Invest in energy production, invest in energy infrastructure, invest in energy demand, invest in energy innovation, invest in the developed world, invest in the emerging markets, like what we're doing with Energy Core and the wrecking balls that we're putting onto the world stage to eliminate poverty. If we can demand it, we can supply it. We can achieve it. But let me be very clear about one thing. Bringing abundance into this world is not going to be easy, but I can promise you this. It can be achieved, and it will be worth it. Thank you.