NCC-sjefen om boligbygging og advokater med ny guide til oppsigelser

A very good Friday and welcome to the economic news on this Ascension Day, May 24th. Marius Jen is here at Smestaddammen in Oslo, and in today's broadcast, the NCC chief from Sweden is visiting together with one of his Norwegian directors for the industry segment. We will also have some of the country's leading labor law lawyers, Nikolai Skarning and Katriona Vogen McIntire, who are out with a new book together with a co-author. But first, we'll take a quick look at the headlines. Arne Kristian Haugstøyl becomes the new director of the National Security Authority, announced the government today. There has also been a strike in the state after a breakdown with Unio and Akademikerne, but not with LO. And we have received quarterly reports from both BW Offshore and BV Energy, and large amounts are also being put on the table on the continental shelf to keep gas pressure up for customers down on the continent. Equinor reports that they and the partners at Troll are investing over 12 billion kroner in the Troll Vest project, or Troll Phase 3 Step 2 as it is formally called. The Troll area alone accounts for 10% of all of Europe's gas consumption, and the project will accelerate production from the reservoirs so that today's high... Two new well templates, a new gas pipeline, and modifications on the Troll A platform, and everything will be ready for startup towards the end of 2026.

In the market now, we see that the main index is down about a quarter percent as we approach the end of the week, and that also means we seem to be able to keep our heads above water at least for the week overall. We have a short week, but measured against the closing price on Thursday May 16, we are up about a quarter percent overall for the main index. We get little direction from the oil price at $81.17 for Brent spot. And if we start moving down towards $80, we should remember that the last time we saw an oil price on Brent below 80 was on February 7th and 18th. Down on the continent, mostly red today. On Wall Street, it looks a bit more positive. After the fall yesterday, both Nasdaq and S&P futures point to an increase of about 0.3% from the start. We should note that AI giant NVIDIA rose over 9% on Nasdaq yesterday after the strong quarterly report. We'll see how the end turns out later today. BV Offshore up half a percent today, BV Energy around 0.6%, and also include DNB which is ticking up almost 2% after Barclays upgraded the Norwegian bank from underweight to overweight today. Otherwise, hydrogen company Nel is down 3.4% after a surge earlier in the week triggered by the large license agreement with Indian Reliance. And we also include Equinor, which is up a couple percent in turnover today. Earlier we saw Kongsberg dominate the turnover increase. You can also listen to and search for the economic news on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or go to the podcast. Now we will bring in today's first two guests, and we will go to construction and infrastructure, a sector that has seen a sharp slowdown in new home construction, while politicians at least here at home say they want to spend less money on giant new public buildings and transport projects, and more on maintenance, and not least a sector that in the years ahead expects to have a lot to do in infrastructure, climate adaptation, and not least increased defense preparedness. Welcome to us, Tomas Carlsson and Grete Aspr from NCC. Thank you very much. And you have almost been here today because you have been on, let's see, a good old-fashioned factory visit today, Tomas?

I understand you are in charge of what you call industry, which is stone and asphalt, stone and asphalt across the Nordics?

Yes, and it's your factory, so to speak. Yes, this stone quarry, Steinskogen, is actually one of our largest facilities and also the newest facility we have at NCC. And there we produce the raw asphalt that we see behind the machine, which is just a hot liquid mass before it is rolled. We are in a large quarry and produce asphalt, and then it is transported to, for example, Oslo municipality, which is one of our largest customers. So now many in Oslo can enjoy new asphalt.

Yes, yes, because you have been out and seen some asphalt laying today?

We have, at the department. Fun fact: one says asphalt and stone. But every inhabitant in the Nordics consumes about 10 tons of stone and about 200-300 kg of asphalt per person. So it's something we really need for society. It's something that keeps the infrastructure going and is a prerequisite for us to have infrastructure.

Yes, you have some key figures you can use for demand in the market, absolutely. You are concerned, and many others know, that there is a large backlog in road maintenance. But how do you notice, as I said, the politicians at least in Norway, but I know it's also a bit like that in the Nordics, are concerned that the cost is quite high for building new large projects. We see the train down to the Swedish border has become much more expensive than planned, water pipes into Oslo. Do you notice that they want to hold back on the large projects and instead use more on maintenance and smaller things, as the minister talks about?

Yes, what are the drivers? It's typically increased defense preparedness, transport equipment, defense, but also that in the geography we live in, people and goods need to get around. We live all over the country, and we also need good connectivity across the different places we live. So we think this is a driver and will be for the foreseeable future. At least if you look at their numbers, you understand that asphalt is very seasonal, because there isn't much asphalt activity in the winter in the Nordics where it's cold. But I understand there is a lot of sales and preparations. So you go a bit like the airlines, in the red in winter and in the black in summer?

How does the year look? I see you had an order intake of well over 13 billion in the first quarter, slightly down from last year, but still considerable sums. I see you are increasing the dividend. Do you believe in any growth in 2024 compared to 2023?

Early, both the Riksbank's cut, but also that there is now a consensus that the ECB and the Fed will also cut. But when it happens and now the Fed is moving forward a bit, there are many different speculations about when it will be seen in the market, and we don't really know when it will come, but we don't see it yet.

Yes, first you have to separate different things. New home construction is not the same as the construction market, so you have to separate that. And there has been a very weak demand for housing. We don't do any own housing development, but we build a lot of homes. Our order intake has been down over 80% compared to before. I am among those who are a bit more cautious about that, because there have been several different things at the same time. On one hand, prices in the used market have gone down, and new construction has a connection with that. And costs have gone up, largely driven by interest rates. So an interest rate cut will be good in many ways, but we don't think we will get down to the interest rate level we had a few years ago, so there will still be a gap. And I can imagine it will take time before it comes back. But I hope that those who say we have seen the bottom are right, at least when we know how cyclical it is. It becomes like shipping, you overbuild and then it's a full stop.

But on costs, both for asphalt and housing, do you see any sign that costs are coming down, or is it just that inflation growth has stopped?

How does it look in construction, both upgrades and the big driver?

How is the economic situation in Sweden? Because in Norway, we were a bit envious of the Riksbank when our mortgage customers suddenly could get a slightly lower interest rate, but then we are told by economists that the Swedish economy is doing worse than the Norwegian. How does it look now? Any signs of improvement?

Finally, we have to talk a bit about where you are also heading. I see you have established NCC now, keeping a straight face, Green Industry. Asphalt, as you say, is largely an oil product, but can you tell us a bit about how you operate with asphalt and concrete? How do you work to both deliver more infrastructure that will protect us against climate adaptation and make things more solid, and perhaps also have lower emissions while doing it?

Yes, I think there is another fun fact about asphalt: the reuse of old asphalt. There has been quite a positive development in the Nordics where more reuse is allowed. But compared internationally, you could allow even more reuse from many customers. You can save the stone material, you can save the oil, so it is 100% recycling. And that could be much more of a green industry transition.

Tomas Carlsson and Grete Aspr, thank you so much for coming to us. Continue your good Norway trip, I should say. Thank you very much.

We will bring in a new round of guests, but before that, it's soon the weekend, and that also means a new edition of Finansavisen Motor. And if you think cars over 2 tons are a bit heavy and are looking for something quick, then colleague Sjel is here to show you. Just look here.

There are sports cars and there are race cars, and this is a McLaren 750S Spider, and this is definitely a race car. This car weighs 1,277 kg and has 750 horsepower, and it sticks to the road like glue. This 750S, in this case the Spider version, is a continuation of the old top model 720S. It has, as the name suggests, extra horsepower. It has become lighter, and they have made a number of changes to aerodynamics and cooling, visible in the form of smaller air intakes at the front. The two exhaust pipes at the rear are gathered in a small cluster in the middle. They have made a number of changes in that way. The chassis is also very special. There are four shock absorbers, of course, but they are connected with hydraulic cables, so to speak, which help level the car as it should when you drive it properly. You have driving modes, and you can also choose the degree of drift and spin when you drive with traction control in track mode. So this is a car you can drive quite aggressively and still feel safe, but it's really on the track you should drive this car, because this is a proper race car. Inside, there have also been a number of changes. There is a new screen with some new functions. The instrument panel is still quite small and informative, giving you everything you need. The materials inside can be chosen between Alcantara, leather, and different material types. The seats also come in three versions. These are standard seats, and you sit really well secured, but there are also sports seats, and then there are some club sport seats that are like bucket seats with optional width. So it depends on whether you want to drive the car on the road or on the track, or both, you can get the car exactly as you want. The price starts at just over 4 million kroner, so it costs a bit, but at the same time, this is one of the most extreme cars you can get today.

A practical handbook on whistleblowing cases, sick leave, dismissal, and termination with templates. Yes, that's the sales pitch for this book, published by Egn Media, and written by you, Nikolai Skarning and Katriona Vogen McIntire. Welcome to both of you from Simonsen FTV. I should say that co-author Pernille Brusdal, from your former employer, has also been involved in writing the book. I have to mention her and give some praise. Nikolai, you have written a book before?

I have written some books before. I'm the type that when I first go on summer vacation, I get bored after two days and start writing. I met my chief economist, Gruppen Andreasen, once on a ski trip, and he had rented a cabin to write a book up in Øyerfjellet. But why this? You have worked with labor law for a long time. How did the idea for this book come about?

We felt that the market maybe lacked a practical approach to how to handle these types of cases. Here we have, we can go through some. We have everything from employment protection for CEOs, sick leave, and many different things, whistleblowing, cooperation problems, all the typical things you encounter when you have employees. And then the question is how to proceed to solve this as quickly and as well as possible. That's what we try to describe here.

I might suspect from the outside that you are not allowed to say that you must remember to hire a lawyer in good time, but that managers perhaps forget too late to take the formal steps and write proper minutes and take that extra paperwork seriously if they actually want to go to dismissal or have serious personnel cases.

Yes, that is the common thread when you get cases. It is a common problem that they do not follow a certain procedure. So what we have included here are checklists, how to proceed step by step. If you do this correctly, you can avoid going to a lawyer, solve the problems, and save a lot of money, and not least protect the work environment, which can easily suffer if these cases drag out.

The cases you get, are there any common themes? Is it often larger companies than smaller ones, or are there patterns that repeat in the cases that end up with a lawyer or in court?

To some extent, there is a pattern. Larger companies often have a large HR department, which smaller businesses often don't have. So they may have a greater need to call us instead of using their own internal HR team. At the same time, we should say that there is a big difference in how this is handled, and it's not always that large companies handle these cases better than small ones. It depends a lot on the decision-maker's willingness to proceed in a sensible way. Most cases are resolved amicably or in some form of settlement before they reach the courtroom. Very few of these types of cases end up in a main hearing. That's how we work, and we always try to help early so that you avoid court cases. It's rare that anyone comes out well from a legal process. It becomes expensive for the employer and creates a bad atmosphere in the office.

Should we talk a bit about employment protection? We see from time to time, and we report and discuss here in the studio, leaders who have to leave on the spot. You write about employment protection for CEOs. Is it as simple as that they have none, or how is it really?

If you think of CEOs, the one who can be exempted from the provisions is the CEO, legally the top leader of the legal entity. Middle managers cannot be exempted. But if you have an agreement that they should be exempted from the provisions, then you have a form of severance pay as compensation for having waived employment protection. So in principle, the board can decide to end the employment against paying a severance package. But you must have this in the employment contract in advance. However, we see examples of people getting a text message saying 'you are fired' in Norwegian. That is not entirely uncommon, and it is possible with that type of agreement. Many companies want to enter into such an agreement. At the same time, the CEO may be in a weaker position in such a role, so you should think twice before removing employment protection for the CEO. There are also advantages to keeping the CEO closely tied. So this is very dependent on the situation and what you actually want the CEO to do. It's clear that the CEO can become too servile to the board if the chair can just say 'you are fired'.

I have to talk about restructuring that is happening, because there is a lot of discussion about AI and its entry. That also brings things into your area, because it also involves downsizing in Norway. The impression I have is that it's not really difficult to downsize in Norway if you have an economic rationale for the company, but it's difficult to fire people just because you want to. In other countries, it can be difficult to downsize even if the company is struggling. How do you see it?

I would say it has become a bit more difficult in Norway as well. There have been some group regulations that make it more difficult, and there has been a development where it has become somewhat more difficult than before to go to downsizing. There are many rights in the law. So there has been a development where it has become more difficult than before, perhaps in the wake of the Norwegian complex a few years ago with internal staffing companies. You can say that there has been an influence on legislation that has made it somewhat stricter against employers now than before. There have been big changes. It struck me when Telenor announced a new top boss yesterday, and Skilbred stood on the podium and talked about his upcoming 11,000 colleagues. But I looked up the annual report for 2010, when they had over 30,000 employees. So they are a third of what they were 14 years ago. Many companies in Norway have changed their numbers, like DNB, which has changed the type of employees a lot, from branch employees to IT developers and compliance staff. There is often good cooperation in Norwegian business between management and union representatives, which means that many of these large downsizings come through good cooperation between the parties. So I think it's more about that than the hard law.

What do you expect now, if you get more systems that can replace parts of all work tasks, either for individuals or parts of what a person does? How will that affect companies and how they should adapt?

You're thinking of AI? Suddenly you can replace a lot of junior work in law firms because it can be automated. In the long run, it could become such that you will have to downsize because you see that work can be done more efficiently and certain positions become redundant. We have seen that before in step with societal development. But you should take with you what you said: that moving to new technology that reduces the need for employees will in principle be a valid reason for downsizing. So the law will support downsizing in such a situation. So it's important with training and that employees also adapt to new technology to remain relevant.

We have to talk about an ongoing case complex, namely temporary hiring and staffing agencies. They have not been favorites of the current government. You are right in the middle of a case complex where you represent someone who has sued the state, a Polish staffing company? It's actually as many as 12 staffing agencies that we represent now. Yes, together. There is also a Polish recruitment firm that has sued the state because they believe the state has breached the EEA agreement by cutting so sharply on temporary staffing as they have done. That case will actually go to the EFTA Court on June 19. The surveillance authority ESA has seemed to support their side of the case, and the EU Commission has also done so on a slightly different basis. But then we got the surprising situation that the German government's lawyer suddenly defends the Norwegian government, because in Germany they also have restrictions on temporary staffing, so they are afraid of the impact of this case from Norway. So if we get a decision that goes against the Norwegian government, it could directly affect German labor law. So we now have the opportunity to influence German labor law, which is a bit fun. Then you get a diploma on the wall whether you work at Kval or Simonsen FTV. But apropos, temporary hiring has been a safety net for many, not just to test if employees are suitable, but also to adapt to seasonal fluctuations and many things. What has the change the government made done in practice on the ground, as you see it? I understand the staffing agencies are not happy, but in practice it has created very big difficulties. Businesses, especially in the districts, are struggling to get hold of, shall we say, confiscated labor. The staffing agencies and the 12 we represent are struggling financially because they have been cut so sharply. So it's an exciting case, and if we get support in the EFTA Court, there could be quite large compensation claims waiting for the government. But has it in practice become more difficult to use temporary labor? It is much more difficult, absolutely. It's not just that the agencies have it more difficult, but it's also more difficult if you arrange it yourself. Customers have difficulties. So what the staffing agencies are trying to do now to make themselves relevant is to help businesses at least recruit employees. But the problem is that when the employees are temporarily employed for a few months, what should they do afterwards? Previously, they were taken care of by the agency and could be moved to a new company. Now they stand alone. So this is a reform that, to put it bluntly, is driven by the LO, and they have in a way gotten rid of a competitor in temporary staffing. And that is a regrettable development for business. When can we expect a resolution to this case complex? We expect a decision from the EFTA Court in the autumn, and then it goes back to Oslo District Court, and then the compensation case will be pursued, provided the EFTA Court agrees with us. Then it can be appealed internally in Norway all the way to the Supreme Court in theory. So it could take a few more years. Yes, it's typical. You covered the famous port monopoly; it took a few years before a resolution there. But it turned out well in the end. There we also got help from the EEA agreement to break up a 100-year-old port monopoly. So the agreement is useful for both employees and employers because it gives a flexible labor market where it is also possible to move across borders. That is something often forgotten. It also gives opportunities to move in and out of Norway and take jobs elsewhere. And we have an important role because we help move people across borders, both Norwegians out and labor into Norway.

Finally, there is enough reading material here, but if you look at the development, you mentioned that some large companies have large HR departments. But is there a trend that large companies do more or less of these cases themselves versus hiring external ones like you? We experience that it is a steady flow and haven't noticed any big change in recent years. So they still come to us, fortunately. You can say we see that these whistleblowing cases, there are many of them. These cases that we also write about in the book, namely whistleblowing about financial infidelity and fraud, people whistleblowing on people, on their bosses, dissatisfied with salary development, career development. Whistleblowing cases are a lot of work. And then we have disloyalty cases, poor work performance, and sick leave. These topics come up regularly and cover a broad spectrum, from fraud to minor issues. That's exactly it. And the book is a small guide for directors and probably some CEOs for the summer vacation. We hope that union representatives and safety representatives also read it, because many of the advice in the book is about cooperating well with union representatives and safety representatives. Many cases are resolved precisely through that cooperation. Nikolai Skarning and Katriona Vogen McIntire, thank you so much for coming to visit. Also greetings to Pernille Brusdal.

We will have a technical analysis of the NVIDIA stock. Back right after this. We will analyze the NVIDIA stock, which we see here shot straight up yesterday, broke through the previous all-time high and a technical resistance level at 950, straight up to 1038. So the RSI had already developed a positive undertone here, as we see the RSI was above the 50 level, but there was still suspense about whether it could become a double top formation or a breakout from a potential rectangle formation, which then signaled further upside. The break of the 950 level triggered a signal that it could go another 190 dollars before it splits, of course, with a possible correction back here. And you have to expect that. So there is technical support at 950 and further down towards 857, but the 950 level is the most important. We also see that the stock has used up its rising primary trend, a rising secondary trend that seems to continue, and in that there is still more to go up towards 1100 in the not too long term, and further perhaps towards 1200. But be aware of a possible correction here. We also see that the RSI has come into a slightly overbought area, which could also mean that there is room for profit-taking and then perhaps a correction.

Back on the Oslo Stock Exchange, the main index is now down at 1,421 points, down 0.3%. That means we still seem to be getting a week that ends up about the same. BV Offshore and BV Energy, which have reported today, are both up, Offshore around 0.7% and BV Energy up just over 2%. Then we have Nel, which is still down a bit today after a fall of almost 2.5% yesterday. It was announced that Dolphin Drilling has a new CEO, down 3%. They have canceled a repair rights issue because the share price is below the subscription price. Dolphin is in the middle of a legal process to get their famous rig out of Nigerian waters. Webstep is selling out of Sweden, up 0.4%, they announced that they are selling the Swedish business. Oil price at $81, as I mentioned. If we go below 80, we have to go back to February 7 to find a 7-handle on at least North Sea oil. And it still looks like Nasdaq will get a positive start after the fall yesterday, where almost only NVIDIA surged upwards in the market. In Finansavisen tomorrow, Saturday, you can read the leader about salary and the new Telenor boss. There will be a profile interview with the new Minister of Trade and Industry, Cecilie Myrseth from the Labour Party. There will be more, and about energy, large losses in solar companies, and of course lots of car, wine, and elk steak. The test of the Range Rover Velar, which my colleagues at Motor think should have been electric. The Mercedes G-Class, which has become electric, will be tested, and much, much more. That was what we had for you this Friday. Thank you for watching or listening. My name is Marius Jen, and I'll be back here with the stock exchange at 08:55 on Monday. Then we will have Pareto Markets analyst Thomas Dingsøyr, and then of course the economic news at 14:30, where we will have SVS Kari Elisabeth Kaski, who will share news and insights into how the budget negotiations in the Storting actually take place. In the meantime, we here at Finansavisen wish you a very good weekend. Thanks for now.