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Bill Wheat
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, DR Horton Inc

$DHI D.R. Horton Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call

🎥 Jul 21, 2026 📺 EARNMOAR ⏱ 55m 👁 65 views
07/21/2026 Q&A: 14:20 D.R. Horton, Inc. operates as a homebuilding company in East, North, Southeast, South Central, Southwest, and Northwest regions in the United States. It engages in the acquisition and development of land; and construction and sale of residential homes in 126 markets across 36 states under the names of D.R. Horton. The company also constructs and sells single-family detached homes; and attached homes, such as townhomes and duplexes. In addition, it provides mortgage financing and title agency services; and engages in the residential lot development business. Further, the c...
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Transcript (128 segments)
O
Operator0:00
Good morning and welcome to the third quarter 2026 earnings conference call for Dior Orton, America's builder. At this time, all participants are in a listenon mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. Please note this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, senior vice president of communications for Dior Horton.
J
Jessica Hansen0:29
Thank you, Paul, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Dear Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to Dr. Horton on the date of this conference call and Dr. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Dr. Horton's annual report on form 10K and its most recent quarterly report on form 10Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release and our supplemental data presentation can be found on our website at investor.diorhorton.com and we plan to file our 10Q later this week. After this call, we will also post our updated investor presentation to our investor relations site on the presentation section under news and events for your reference. Now, I will turn the call over to Paul Romanowski, our president and CEO.
P
Paul Romanowski1:42
Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I'm pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our chief operating officer, and Bill Wheat, our chief financial officer. The Dr. Horton team delivered a solid third quarter, highlighted by earnings per diluted share of $3.20. Consolidated pre-tax income totaled $1.2 billion on $9.2 million of revenues, resulting in a pre-tax profit margin of 13.3%. We closed 23,983 homes during the quarter, which was at the high end of our guidance range, and achieved a home sales gross margin of 20.7%. We remain focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to our shareholders. Over the past 12 months, we generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations and returned all of it to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. For the trailing 12 months ended June 30th, our home building pre-tax return on inventory was 17%. While our consolidated returns on equity and assets were 12.8% and 8.5%. Our return on assets ranks in the top 20% of all S&P 500 companies for the past three, five, and 10-year periods, demonstrating that our disciplined, returns focused operating model delivers sustainable results and positions us well for continued value creation. We work every day to leverage our industry-leading platform, unmatched scale, efficient operations, and experienced teams to bring home ownership opportunities at affordable price points to more Americans. 65% of our mortgage company's closings this quarter were to firsttime home buyers. Our teams manage each community with discipline, balancing pace, price, incentives, and inventory levels to meet demand and maximize returns. Affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to impact new home demand, and our operators will continue to adjust as market conditions evolve. Mike, earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 were $3.20 per diluted share compared to $3.36 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter was $95 million on consolidated revenues of $9.2 billion. Home sales revenues in the third quarter totaled $8.7 billion on 23,983 homes closed compared to $8.6 billion on 23,160 homes closed in the prior year quarter. Our average closing price was flat sequentially and down 2% year-over-year to $362,000. This is below the average price of new homes in the United States by approximately $155,000 for 30% reflecting our continued focus on affordability. Bill net sales order value in the third quarter totaled $8.4 billion on 23,084 homes sold, both flat with the prior year quarter. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 20%. Up from 17% in the prior year period and from 16% sequentially within our normal historical range. The average number of active selling communities increased 2% sequentially and 9% year-over-year. The average price of net sales orders was $365,600, essentially flat both sequentially and year-over-year. Jessica,
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Jessica Hansen5:18
Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the third quarter was 20.7%. Above the high end of our guidance range, reflecting lower stick and brick costs and slightly lower incentives than the second quarter. However, we expect incentives to remain elevated relative to historical levels. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues and lot costs were flat sequentially, while stick and brick costs were down 2%. Year-over-year, home sales revenue was down 3%, stick and brick costs were down 5% and lot costs were up 5%. We currently expect our home sales gross margin to be relatively flat in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Bill,
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Bill Wheat5:59
Our home building SGNA expenses in the third quarter increased 8% compared to last year and SGNA as a percentage of revenues was 8.3% up from 7.8% in the prior year quarter. We remain focused on managing our platform with discipline to gain market share efficiently and we expect to return to positive SGNA operating leverage when revenue growth resumes and our average sales price and community absorption rates stabilize. Paul, we
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Paul Romanowski6:27
Started 23,900 homes in the third quarter and we ended the quarter with 38,000 homes in inventory down 1% both sequentially and year-over-year. 23,300 of our homes at June 30th were unsold. 7,600 of our total unsold homes were completed, of which 600 have been completed for more than 6 months. For homes closed in the third quarter, our median cycle time from home start to home close improved by roughly 3 weeks year-over-year. Our improved cycle times enable us to hold less housing inventory and turn it more efficiently. We expect starts in the fourth quarter to be lower than the third quarter and we will continue to manage our inventory levels and starts pace based on market conditions. Mike, our home building lock
M
Mike Murray7:19
Position at June 30th consisted of approximately 570,000 lots of which 22% were owned and 78% were controlled through purchase contracts. We continue to actively manage our investments in lots, land, and development based on market conditions. We remain focused on relationships with land developers across the country so we can build more homes on lots developed by others. This approach enhances our capital efficiency, returns, and operational flexibility. Our own lot position is down 13% from a year ago and in the third quarter 67% of the homes we closed were on lots developed by either fourstar or third parties, up from 66% in the prior year quarter. During the third quarter, our home building investments in lots, land, and development totaled $2.1 billion, including $1.5 billion for finished lots and $520 million for land development and $75 million for land acquisition. Paul, in the third quarter, our rental
P
Paul Romanowski8:21
Operations generated $31 million of pre-tax income on $266 million of revenues from the sale of 601 single family rental homes and 339 multifamily rental units. At June 30th, our rental property inventory totaled $3 billion, including $2.7 billion of multifamily rental properties and $321 million of single family rental properties. We remain focused on improving the capital efficiency and returns of our rental operations, and we currently expect our rental inventory to remain around $3 billion. Turning to our financial services operations, pre-tax income for the third quarter was $70 million on $221 million of revenues, resulting in a pre-tax profit margin of 31.9%. Mike Fourstar, our majorityowned residential lot development company, reported third quarter revenues of $47 million on 3,659 lots sold with pre-tax income of $49 million. At June 30th, FourStar's owned and controlled lot position total 92,000 lots. 66% of FourStar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to Dr. Horton. During the third quarter, we purchased $360 million of finished lots from Fourstar. Fourstar's strong, separately capitalized balance sheet, national operating platform, and lot supply position them well to provide essential finished lots to the home building industry and to continue aggregating significant market share over the next several years. Bill, our capital
B
Bill Wheat10:06
Allocation strategy remains disciplined and balanced, supporting an operating platform that delivers attractive returns and substantial operating cash flows. We maintain a strong balance sheet with low leverage and healthy liquidity, providing significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities. At June 30th, we had $6.1 billion of consolidated liquidity, including $2.1 billion of cash and $4 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities. Total debt at quarter end was $7.1 billion with $600 million of homebuilding senior notes maturing over the next 12 months. Our consolidated leverage at June 30th was 23%. And we continue to target leverage of around 20% over the long term. During the first nine months of the year, homebuilding cash provided by operations totaled $1.3 billion and consolidated cash provided by operations was $881 million. During the third quarter, we paid cash dividends of 45 cents per share totaling $127 million and our board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level to be paid in August. We also repurchased 4.2 million shares of common stock for $616 million during the quarter, reducing our outstanding share count by 6% compared to a year ago. At quarter end, our stockholders equity was $23.8 billion, down 1% from a year ago, while book value per share increased 5% from a year ago to $84.85. Jessica,
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Jessica Hansen11:43
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we currently expect consolidated revenues to be in the range of 8.8 to $9.3 billion with homes closed by our home building operations to be in the range of 22,500 to 23,000 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin for the fourth quarter to be in the range of 20.5 to 21% and our consolidated pre-tax profit margin to be between 12.3% and 12.8%. For the full year of fiscal 2026, we now expect consolidated revenues of approximately 32.5 to $33 billion and homes closed by our home building operations of 83,800 to 84,300 homes. We now forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2026 of approximately 25% and still expect operating cash flow of at least $3 billion, common stock repurchases of approximately $2.5 billion, and dividend payments of around $500 million. Paul,
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Paul Romanowski12:45
In closing, our results and positioning reflect the strength of our experienced teams, industryleading market share, broad geographic footprint, and focus on delivering quality homes at affordable price points. These are key components of our operating platform that support our ability to grow market share, generate substantial operating cash flows, and consistently return capital to our shareholders. We recognize the current volatility and uncertainty in the broader economy and we will remain agile and disciplined as we focus on enhancing the long-term value of Dr. Horton. Finally, I want to thank the entire Dr. Horton family, our employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors, and real estate agents for your continued dedication and hard work. We remain committed to continuing to improve our operations and creating home ownership opportunities for even more individuals and families. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.
O
Operator13:47
Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. In the interest of time, we ask that participants limit themselves to one question and one follow-up on today's call. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions.
And the first question today is coming from John Lavalo from UBS. John, your line is live.
J
John Lavalo14:27
Good morning, guys. And thanks for taking my questions. The first one is that stabilization is something we've heard numerous times in our channel checks despite continued volatility from not only an interest rate but a geopolitical standpoint. I mean would you agree with that assessment and you think that we're kind of getting to a point where we're starting to form a bottom here?
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Paul Romanowski14:51
I would say that when looking at our sales, our sales were relatively in line with normal seasonality. They were a little softer post our call in April. And still see plenty of buyers out there in our sales offices as we travel and in front of people. It's just needing to see them be a little more confident in the overall economy and in their ability to move forward with a purchase today.
J
John Lavalo15:22
Understood. And you guys slightly pulled back, I think about 3% on your full year deliveries despite being within actually towards the upper end of the third quarter range and with flattish or orders on a year-over-year basis. So, I guess is the trimmed outlook predominantly driven by just uncertainty in consumer confidence and geopolitics as we move into the fourth quarter? Is it a function of maybe lower than internally expected orders in the third quarter or you just kind of moderating growth to maintain margin?
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Paul Romanowski15:54
It was lower than our internal expected sales rate. We really needed to see a little better than normal seasonality in the quarter and felt like we could see that at the beginning of the quarter that demand softened a little bit as we went through the quarter and hence the reduction in our annual guide. But to your point, John, happy with the trade-off of what we were able to achieve from a gross margin perspective at the lower sales volume level.
J
John Lavalo16:21
Yeah, 100%. Thank you, guys.
O
Operator16:24
Thank you. The next question will be from Steven Kim from Evercore. Stephen, your line is live.
S
Steven Kim16:30
Yeah, thanks very much, guys. Impressive results in what I consider to be a pretty tough environment, but that's kind of the related to my first question. When you think about the current environment and you look at your outlook for let's say long-term through cycle returns, how do these current results stack up relative to that? Like do you regard your current returns as about average longer term or if not what are the elements that you expect might push your returns higher or lower over the longer term?
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Bill Wheat17:03
Yes, Steve, our current returns are lower than where we expect them to be longer term. We have our margins while in the longer term historic range, we believe our longer term stabilized margin should be a bit higher than this. Our operating margin including our SGNA leverage should be better than this over time when we're seeing some more consistent growth. We have not seen growth on our top line for a few years here. And so, as we're always positioning for growth and so with a little better operating leverage and frankly, I think we still feel like we have some opportunity to improve our capital efficiency and our homes and inventory and our land. So, we continue to focus on that. So overall, we would expect our returns on our capital, whether it's ROA, ROE, both to be higher longer term than they are right now.
S
Steven Kim17:52
Well, that's encouraging. And appreciate that color, Bill. Second question kind of relates to scale and I think you talked about when growth returns that's when you think SGNA could be levers and that makes sense. So, however, I was curious if you could contextualize that given the fact that we've seen a lot of consolidation in the industry from competitors, let's say both foreign and domestic. I'm wondering if you can comment on how you think about your opportunity set from a scale perspective particularly. I know you've been hard at work generating a lot of economies of scale and your volume is kind of stabilized here but you still talk about future growth and so I'm curious can you talk about what the importance of scale for you to achieve the efficiencies that you desire. Should we be thinking there's another sort of step function higher in volume that could unlock some of these opportunities or maybe you could walk us through that. Thanks.
P
Paul Romanowski19:05
Steve, when you look at our scale today or at our revenues and absorption being relatively flat over the last couple years, that's while we have been expanding our footprint. We've opened 30 or so markets over the last five years and we've lacked some leverage on our SGNA because of creating that footprint. But I think that footprint geographically puts us in a great position as we see demand rebound a little bit. We see some strengthening in consumer confidence and demand. We feel we're in a great position to gain scale nationally. We also feel very good about our positioning at a local level. That scale is still very important to us. We see the benefits of it, believe in it, talk about it, and still have our operators in a position to maintain their position in the market and grow when the opportunities are there for us.
And as a reminder, we're only number one in half of the markets we operate in today. So, we still have a lot of opportunity to continue to grow our share locally across the country.
S
Steven Kim20:08
That's great perspective. Appreciate that, guys.
O
Operator20:11
Thank you. The next question will be from Alan Ratner from Zelman. Alan, your line is live.
A
Alan Ratner20:17
Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for the detail so far and taking my question. Obviously very impressive results on the gross margin. It looks like a lot of that has been driven by really strong cost controls and I'm curious, as you think about the cost environment today. Obviously you've done a great job of pushing back on suppliers and trades and driving down costs where you can. Where do you think you are in that process? Because, as we look at at least the announcements on Canadian concrete, I'm not sure how big of a piece of your business that is. Fuel remains elevated. So, do you feel like there's still further room to drive costs lower or is there a risk over the next handful of quarters that that could actually reverse given all of those headwinds I just mentioned?
M
Mike Murray21:09
We lost a little bit of your question, Alan, but I think I got the gist of it. We've seen good improvement in our cost containment efforts compared to the prior year. But it's an ongoing battle and there is certainly some headwind out there right now with some fuel cost increases. I don't believe the Canadian recently announced Canadian tariff changes are going to have a material impact on Dr. Horton and our footprint. But I'm looking for us to hang on to perhaps squeeze out a little additional cost improvements in future quarters, but it's more challenging now just as you get closer to an optimal state to get significant improvement going forward.
A
Alan Ratner21:53
Thanks very much.
O
Operator21:57
Thank you. The next question will be from Matthew Bully from Barclays. Matthew, your line is live.
M
Matthew Bully22:03
Morning everyone. Thanks for taking the question. Want to ask on incentives. I think you said the incentives were slightly lower quarter over quarter. And so you mentioned demand softened a bit during the quarter. It looked like finished spec came up slightly and obviously interest rates are where they are. It seems like obviously you're still guiding to that flattish sequential gross margin going forward. So maybe you just kind of unpack what's assumed around incentives there and why wouldn't there be an incremental incentive headwind going forward. Thank you.
B
Bill Wheat22:42
Well, in the current environment, we saw a slight improvement in incentives, but as Paul mentioned, it was a bit softer later in the quarter. So we do expect incentives to remain elevated. And as Mike just discussed, we may still see some stick and brick savings, but we have achieved a lot of what we expect to achieve today. So, really where we are is a relatively stable outlook going into the next quarter. Obviously a lot of our sales and our closings in the quarter occur in the same quarter. So, there's still some uncertainty around what may be required going forward, but right now, the visibility we have points to a relatively stable margin going into Q4.
M
Matthew Bully23:23
Okay, got it. Thank you for that. And then secondly, stepping back, wanted to ask about your exposure to the first-time buyer. I think it looks like you're around 2/3 today first-time buyer and we can go back any number of years. Once upon a time that was half the business, maybe even less than half the business. So, it's been a very steady mix towards that first-time buyer. And so, given the state of the first-time buyer today, would you say that the two-thirds of the business you're at now maybe stabilizes, do you expect it to actually continue to move higher? If you look at it as we are kind of the answer to the affordable needs of the country today or would you actually look at it and say maybe we do want to mix a little bit back towards that kind of first-time move up buyer. So just curious on how you're positioning the business from that perspective on a multi-year time frame. Thank you.
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Paul Romanowski24:22
The positioning of our business today lends itself to still seeing a significant portion of our buyers in that two-thirds range as first-time home buyers. There's some opportunity to go up some. We'll certainly take it. If we see more buyers out there, we're happy every day to sell them a home. That said, as we penetrate markets, we also take the opportunity to move up market a little bit. So I think blending that at a community level and at a division level, our operators are charged every day to find the market, go meet that market, but I would expect us to see a first-time home buyer segment relatively consistent with what we see this quarter.
M
Matthew Bully25:03
All right. Well, thank you, Paul. Good luck, guys.
O
Operator25:07
Thank you. The next question will be from Eric Bosard from Cleveland Research. Eric, your line is live.
E
Eric Bosard25:14
Good morning. The stick and brick down 5%. Curious where you're seeing that if labor is a meaningful piece of that. And then the path forward you expect from here and how this is influencing or contributing to gross margin.
M
Mike Murray25:31
Sure, Eric. The majority of the savings we're seeing is still on framing, which would be inclusive of labor. As I think we've talked about previously, we pay for a lot of things turnkey, so we can't split it out for you perfectly, labor versus materials, but framing was our biggest cost category of savings. Very positively though, across all of our major cost categories, we saw a decline in terms of our costs on closings in the third quarter. And so, I think we expect that to hold at least into Q4. Maybe into 27 we start to have a slight lumber headwind again with where lumber prices have gone, but we feel good for at least the next quarter or so.
E
Eric Bosard26:11
And then in terms of how that is supporting gross margin or supporting the ability to increase incentives, how are you thinking about that or planning that or how is that playing out?
M
Mike Murray26:24
Incentives in the cost structure and incentives in our mind are kind of separate things. We think about the home we want to deliver on the lot. Try to build it as efficiently as possible and then look to go to market with the appropriate price and incentives that stimulate demand in the marketplace to get the pace we need to drive the return we need and then manage the return on the basis of trying to pull back or increase incentives to stimulate demand or to improve margin. Two separate parts of the equation for us.
E
Eric Bosard26:58
Okay. And then secondly, you were relatively clear that in the quarter a little less volume, a little bit more margin. Is this the path forward strategically? I know it moves around, but is that kind of plan A from here?
P
Paul Romanowski27:14
That was our plan this past quarter and we're going to respond to the market based on what we see quarter to quarter, month to month, really week to week. So, we're managing our business very efficiently, responding to the market as it comes to us. Our operators did a great job of delivering on the quarter in terms of our guidance in closings and in margin. We did make the decision to hold margin a little more than push into the units and hence the reduction in our guide for the year. But we're going to continue to manage the business as efficiently as we can to drive the best returns that we have at a community level.
E
Eric Bosard27:56
Thank you.
O
Operator27:58
Thank you. The next question will be from Sam Reed from Wells Fargo. Sam, your line is live.
S
Sam Reed28:05
Thanks so much everyone and good quarter. You gave a lot of helpful color on lock cost inflation. I believe it was up about 5% year-over-year in the third quarter. Curious as to what's embedded for lot cost inflation in the fourth quarter and then contextualize where you see that line item potentially tracking into next year whether you
A
Analyst28:24
Expect to get some help just from slack in the horizontal supply chain or whether there could be some implications from higher oil costs on some of those horizontal lot inputs. Thanks.
B
Bill Wheat28:36
We expect to see similar lot cost appreciation. Although we're seeing some savings and some benefit in the development cost that won't come through for several quarters well into 27 and 28. Anything that we are seeing today. So expect to see similar level of lot cost inflation as we head into the fourth quarter.
S
Sam Reed29:00
That's helpful. And maybe let's switch gears and quickly touch on SGNA. You know, there was a step up in SGNA spend on a dollar basis. Realize there was probably some community count embedded in that, but just if you could contextualize some of the levers behind the higher year-over-year home building SGNA dollars just so we can understand how we should be thinking about that both for the quarter and also for FQ4. Thanks.
B
Bill Wheat29:26
Yes, Sam. The primary driver of this has been our community count increase, our active communities. We're up 9% year-over-year. Our total dollar spend of SGNA was up 8%. So relatively in line there and that's been a trend for the last two to three years as we've added 30 markets over the last several years. But yet our volume, our absorptions per community have declined a bit and so our overall revenues have not increased and we've been adjusting our ASPs to meet the market as well. So we've had some deleveraging over the last couple of years, but at the point at which we do begin to see stabilization in pricing and in absorption pace, we would expect then to be in position to get forward operating leverage on SGNA. But right now, we're in a position where we built the infrastructure and we need to see the growth coming off of that in the future.
S
Sam Reed30:17
Thanks so much. I appreciate it.
O
Operator30:22
Thank you. The next question will be from Ryan Gilbert from BTIG. Ryan, your line is live.
R
Ryan Gilbert30:28
Hi, thanks. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to circle back on the finish spec inventory question. It does look like finish specs are up around 2100 homes sequentially. I think that's more than the typical sequential increase. Is that more than you expected? And is that tied to some of the softer results in May and June versus what you saw in mid-April? And then how should we think about potential gross margin implications for right sizing the spec count?
B
Bill Wheat31:00
So we look at the spec counts. It's a function of a few things. One is some improvements that we continue to see in our construction cycle time. So we're finishing homes faster. At the same time our average selling communities are up 9%. So that's up more than those completed specs are up. Therefore we have fewer per community at this time. And then the other part, to the forward margin piece, those completed specs are very recently completed. You can look at our age specs and they're actually down a few hundred units year-over-year. And so we feel pretty good about going into the fourth quarter able to provide a stable margin guide.
M
Mike Murray31:34
Yeah. And as we said in the scripted part, we do expect our Q4 starts to be lower than Q3, and we'll continue to adjust our starts accordingly based on the demand that we're seeing. Of our total completed specs, only 600 have been completed and unsold for greater than six months. And that's actually down from 800 sequentially. So to Mike's point, the vast majority of our completed specs are very fresh.
R
Ryan Gilbert31:58
Right? Okay. Yep, that makes sense. Thanks. And then second question is on community count growth. I think you've talked in the past about that growth rate decelerating to kind of a mid-single-digit rate at some point in time. I'm just wondering given the continued declines in the control block count, should we recalibrate that mid-single-digit growth rate expectation or do you think you can continue to grow community count despite lower control lots?
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Bill Wheat32:25
Yeah, I think that would still be our base case over the longer term is that our goal would be to have a roughly mid-single-digit community count growth. It can be a little bit choppy. It actually has been sticky at the low double digits for quite some time. We did see a slight moderation to a 9% increase on a year-over-year basis this quarter and 2% sequentially. So we did start to see it trend down modestly and would still expect it to trend down to mid-single-digit over time.
R
Ryan Gilbert32:53
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
O
Operator32:56
Thank you. The next question will be from Anthony Pinari from City. Anthony, your line is live.
A
Anthony Pinari33:03
Good morning. I was wondering if you could talk about any meaningful regional variation you're seeing in terms of demand and any MSAs that stand out as being stronger or weaker. And I guess related question, we've heard about some MSAs with tech exposure being strong, like Bay Area, some others like Seattle being weak. Is there anything you're sort of observing there? It's kind of sometimes hard to tell whether that's a plus or a minus, but
B
Bill Wheat33:30
I think what you just mentioned is consistent with what we're seeing and fairly consistent with what we talked about last quarter on the call. Across really our north operating area, which is the Mid-Atlantic states, the Ohio Valley, the Midwest, seeing relative strength in most of those markets. A little more weakness out in the northwest and especially as you look up into Seattle where we've seen some of the shift in those software jobs and more layoffs and some headwinds to demand in those markets. And that's pretty consistent with what we've seen through this quarter.
A
Anthony Pinari34:09
Okay. And then any other regional variations that you'd highlight in terms of, I don't know, Sun Belt or Northeast or
B
Bill Wheat34:18
Yeah, the Florida markets seem to be performing pretty consistently at this point in time. And some of the same across the Southeast, so it's been pretty encouraging.
A
Anthony Pinari34:31
Great. And then I guess one last one. Stick and brick costs down year-over-year. You've taken down cycle times year-over-year. Is there sort of a theoretical limit or floor for cycle times? Just generally how should we think about that?
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Bill Wheat34:47
You'll never hear us say there's a floor in terms of our ability to run our business more efficiently. That said, the reduction has come more from complete to close than it has from our start to complete. In other words, in the construction cycle time, we've come down maybe a day sequentially and most of that reduction has been from complete to close. So our focus in the field and in our operations in our communities is to sell the homes earlier in the process. We're building homes at the most efficient rate that we have in the history of the company. And so we need to get back to selling homes earlier in the process. That will help reduce that overall start to close cycle time. And we do think there's some room to bring that down further.
A
Anthony Pinari35:34
Understood. I'll turn it over.
O
Operator35:38
Thank you. The next question will be from Rafe Jadrasich from Bank of America. Rafe, your line is live.
R
Rafe Jadrasich35:45
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First, can you remind us the lag between when lumber prices move and when it shows up in your gross margin for delivered homes?
B
Bill Wheat35:58
It usually takes a few quarters for that to come through based upon how we're priced to an average price at the point of purchase order and then those homes have to go through the production process to be sold and closed till they show up in margin. So it's usually sorry
R
Rafe Jadrasich36:12
A few so three
B
Bill Wheat36:14
Yeah, two to three quarters is fair.
R
Rafe Jadrasich36:16
Two to three. Okay. And then the second question, your operators have been pretty nimble sort of balancing margin and volume and coming earlier this year it seemed like there was more of a push into volume in the first half and there's been an adjustment here. Can you just talk about maybe what you're seeing out there that caused that shift? Is it where Q3 orders came in? Is the outlook for the fourth quarter and then what would it take to get you to shift back to more aggressive volume given the growth ambitions you have longer term and the strong lot pipeline?
B
Bill Wheat36:58
Our efficiency and reduced cycle times have allowed us to respond inter-quarter to those changes in demand and I think that's really what you saw with our second quarter where we saw a strong early selling season allowed us to increase our start pace, respond to that and then we adjusted in kind. Throughout this past quarter we saw the market soften a little bit and that's why we're anticipating to see our start rate in the fourth quarter be below what it was this past quarter. So really it's our operators being nimble, responding to the market and being out there on the ground every day responding to the market that comes at them.
R
Rafe Jadrasich37:44
Thank you. That's very helpful.
O
Operator37:48
Thank you. The next question will be from Trevor Allensson from Wolf Research. Trevor, your line is live.
T
Trevor Allensson37:55
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First question is back on incentives and your rate buy down program. With rates moving higher through the quarter, have you made any adjustments to those programs? And if so, can you talk about what rate you were buying down to on average currently and how does that compare to recent quarters?
J
Jessica Hansen38:13
It was actually the first quarter that we did see our rate in backlog tick up because of that move in rates. So we saw our average buy down decreased slightly to 1.6% from 1.7% in the second quarter. And the mortgage rate for our buyers in backlog utilizing our mortgage company at June 30th was 4.9% against a rough market rate of about 6.5%. So we're still in the market pretty consistently with anywhere from 4.99% to 5.5% depending on mortgage product. We have an array of offerings so you'll find some things outside of that band but that would be the largest piece of our offering today.
T
Trevor Allensson38:54
Okay, thank you for that Jessica. And then second question, last quarter you talked about selling specs earlier in the construction cycle expecting that to provide some gross margin benefits. Can you quantify or at least talk about any of the benefit you saw in Q3 from that process and should we expect incremental tailwinds from selling earlier in the construction process in Q4? Thanks.
B
Bill Wheat39:15
We definitely did see probably on those closings a lower incentive level having to be offered. At the same time, it provides a much greater efficiency to the turn of the inventory in the selling process earlier so that as soon as the construction process is complete, the buyer has gone through the mortgage qualification process and they're excited and ready to move into their home. Certainly more room for improvement though. We saw a step up in those closings this quarter, but it's not where we ultimately want it to be.
T
Trevor Allensson39:43
Thank you for all the color and good luck moving forward.
O
Operator39:48
Thank you. The next question will be from Susan McClary from Goldman Sachs. Susan, your line is live.
S
Susan McClary39:54
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the rental side of the market. Can you talk about what you're seeing there, especially post the housing legislation that passed and how you're thinking about the outlook in terms of that part of the business?
B
Bill Wheat40:10
We certainly saw, until it was settled, some uncertainty in that market, a pullback on the single family for rent purchasers. We have seen them out there with interest. Haven't seen a significant shift as of yet. It's fairly new in terms of that legislation being activated. But feel good about our position there. Majority of what we're selling is really on a forward sale basis and so we have those opportunities and continuing to work with the buyers that have been with us and look for new buyers for that segment.
S
Susan McClary40:45
Okay, that's helpful. And then digging into the priorities of capital allocation, you reiterated the guide for the $2.5 billion of buybacks. Considering though where you are already coming into this quarter and the seasonality of the cash flows, how should we think about the potential for some upside there? What are you watching for to get more active in that? And can you talk about any other priorities in terms of capital allocation?
B
Bill Wheat41:12
You know, our share repurchases and dividends are governed by our cash flow, and right now our visibility to cash flow is still to meet or exceed $3 billion. So our year-to-date spend on repurchases has been in excess of our cash flow year to date. Obviously, we expect a strong cash flow performance in Q4 to get that more in line. So right now, we don't really have visibility to any upside to any large extent on our current year repurchases, but we will monitor cash flow as we move through the quarter and adjust accordingly.
S
Susan McClary41:48
Okay. Thank you. Good luck.
O
Operator41:52
Thank you. The next question will be from Mike Dal from RBC Capital Markets. Mike, your line is live.
M
Mike Dal42:00
Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe to expand on Susan's question. Can you just broaden out and give us your perspective now that the road to housing has officially passed and all the final details? Give us your view on puts and takes and whether or not anything really is impactful aside from what you just commented on on the SFR or BTR dynamic.
B
Bill Wheat42:24
I think one of the biggest impacts will be on the SFR. It's settled down for institutional investors their ability to operate in their business without required sale. I think that is certainly a benefit. We're encouraged by the fact that there's still a lot of focus on affordability and on deregulation. I think that has the biggest long-term impact or opportunity at the state level and then really it has to come down to a local level, municipal and county level, where we see some deregulation opportunity. We're hopeful for that. We see more of that discussion today throughout our communities, but don't expect to see any significant shift or change in either demand or supply in the near term from what was just passed.
M
Mike Dal43:14
Got it. Okay. Appreciate that. And then just shifting gears back to the land dynamic. Your land acquisition spend in particular has been coming down and obviously that's kind of alongside the lot count, but can you give us your perspective on the land market right now and how you're managing that? Seems like for the time being, even as you enter new markets and try to build those positions, you're comfortable moving to the sidelines a bit on acquisition or shrinking your lot count a little. Just curious to get your updated views on how that market's evolving.
B
Bill Wheat43:55
We're certainly trying to have our land acquisition efforts in line with what we see as market demand right now. And there are some markets that we've been able to rework some of our lot position, lot portfolio, working with our developers. Been very pleased with their partnership and working through some changes along those lines. And at the same time, there are still opportunities we see where it still makes great sense to go out and tie up new positions. We're probably buying less raw dirt in the most recent quarters than we have in a while, and we'll probably continue that trend a bit right now because there's a fair number of lots that are in the pipeline both under control by us and that are available from some of our development partners to look at. Our focus is to continue to manage it more efficiently and own fewer lots where we can if we're still in position to be in control of our starts pace which will govern our revenue. So we have about 1.5 years of owned land today which is down from 1.6 years sequentially and 1.7 years year-over-year. But more importantly, we control 6.7 years. So we're in a great position even with our lot count coming down a little bit. We're pleased that our own lot count has come down, but we still control the seven years of land overall.
M
Mike Dal45:09
Great. Appreciate that. Thanks.
O
Operator45:13
Thank you. The next question will be from Buck Horn from Raymond James. Buck, your line is live.
B
Buck Horn45:19
Hey, thanks. Good morning. I'm just wondering if you could go back to the inter-quarter demand trends a little bit as it relates to the can rate. As demand seasonally softened into May and June, was the can rate increase back-loaded or was it more of a slowdown in the incoming gross orders or some combination of both?
J
Jessica Hansen45:43
Yeah, it was a little bit of both. As we saw a bit of softening mid-quarter and in the later part of the quarter, our can rate did tick up alongside that. And so that was something that our operators were adjusting through throughout the quarter. Even our exit rate can rate wise for the quarter was still well within our normal historical range.
B
Buck Horn46:05
Awesome. That's helpful, Jessica. Appreciate that. And what were the largest reasons for cancellation in the quarter? Was it the ability to qualify or just cold feet or any other reasons?
J
Jessica Hansen46:15
Yeah, it's still largely qualification as it historically has been. We have general lack of confidence. We'd love to see a bit more confidence among our buyers today, but qualification is still largely the biggest reason for cans.
B
Buck Horn46:31
Got it. Thanks guys. Appreciate it.
O
Operator46:35
Thank you. The next question will be from Kenneth Zener from Seaport Research. Kenneth, your line is live.
K
Kenneth Zener46:42
Good morning everybody. Hello. Just checking. Your gross margin beat. Can you talk to, I mean your regional segment results are very consistent versus other builders. So what kind of led to the modest beat that you guys had? Was it regional mix? Can you talk to if these newer 30 markets which you said Bill have higher SGNA, do they also have higher gross margins? Thank you.
B
Bill Wheat46:45
Morning Ken.
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Mike Murray46:46
Morning Ken.
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Bill Wheat47:16
No, typically a new market wouldn't have higher than normal gross margins. It takes a little while for them to live into that on both the gross margin and SGNA front. So that would be a little bit of a drag compared to our company averages. I think mostly that margin beat is the efforts in cost reduction and it's stick and brick and seeing those come through now with the efforts that our operators have been focused on for some time. That's largely where we saw the difference in the margin, slight reduction in incentives as well as we adjusted throughout the market and took the position to hold on to a little bit of margin instead of leaning into absorption.
K
Kenneth Zener48:01
Okay. And then you talked about Q4 starts being below Q3, which is not heroic. Last year your starts were 14.5 thousand. Is that the range that we should be thinking about given that occurred last year? I'm just trying to think about your base of inventory units, which historically you said are ending inventory times two. That was your long-term revenue outlook. Now you're a little more efficient, so it could be higher than that. But I'm trying to think where you're bringing starts in Q4 and inventory for your 27th positioning.
B
Bill Wheat48:40
Certainly seeing Q4 starts inside of Q3 and while that's not heroic, it will be more starts probably than we had last year in the fourth quarter that was deliberately suppressed to try to bring inventory back in line. Largely it's going to be dependent upon the sales environment we see through the quarter and positioning for our September 30th inventory. A two times turn had been a historical norm for us. Today we're looking in excess of that and our internal goals are to get that to three and we'll be close this year.
K
Kenneth Zener49:13
Really. Okay. Do appreciate it. Thank you.
O
Operator49:20
Thank you. The next question will be from Jade Rammani from KBW. Jade, your line is live.
J
Jade Rammani49:28
Thank you very much. Just the multifamily inventory given where rates are and cap rates in the market as well as supply overhang. What's the outlook for stabilizing and moving that inventory?
B
Bill Wheat49:42
We're right at about $3 billion in terms of our total and that's split largely between apartments at $2.7 billion and around $320 million in our build for rent. Our focus on the build for rent has really been on a forward sale. So we don't need to grow that much other than if we see demand for that then we'll be able to build into it. And we're looking to hold that inventory stable at about that $3 billion mark. Then the multifamily, we do expect to close a few more units in Q4. So expect that inventory to come down a bit in Q4 and then in aggregate keep the overall rental inventory multi and single within the $3 billion range. So a bit coming down in the short term though.
J
Jade Rammani50:29
Thank you. And then on the technology side, was wondering if there's anything in off-site manufacturing or AI you're seeing that looks promising. The housing legislation included some manufacturing housing incentives and maybe that's an area of potential synergy. Just curious about your thoughts there.
B
Bill Wheat50:48
We continue to evaluate opportunities to deliver housing more efficiently, looking at a wide number of off-site manufacturing processes and players that are trying to crack the code there. We haven't yet found anything that's replacing the way we've done it for a long time that can do it more efficiently, but we are continually looking and evaluating.
J
Jade Rammani51:12
Thank you.
O
Operator51:15
Thank you. The next question will be from Jay Mccandas from Citizens. Jay, your line is live.
J
Jay Mccandas51:21
Hey, good morning everyone. So my first question, nice to see the backlog price up year-on-year for the first time in several quarters. Is that just a function of mix or were you guys able to find some pricing power in some of these markets?
B
Bill Wheat51:37
I think that's largely a function of mix. We do have pricing power in some markets and when that opportunity is there our operators are going to take it at the community level. Some of that slight reduction in incentives as well will, if it's in our rate buy downs, add back to the revenue column.
J
Jay Mccandas51:57
Yes. And then the second question, looking at July and rates have been moving up pretty aggressively, what have you seen so far on traffic and demand? And also as part of that, what are you seeing from competitive inventories especially on the entry level and first-time buyer side?
B
Bill Wheat52:19
I don't know we've seen much change in inventories. I think that the industry as a whole has been relatively disciplined and trying to measure that towards demand. Still early in July for us to forecast and we're responding daily in the field and at point of sale to meet what's in front of us.
J
Jay Mccandas52:42
Got it. All right. Thank you.
O
Operator52:45
Thank you. And the next question will be from Alex Baron from Housing Research Center. Alex, your line is live.
A
Alex Baron52:52
Yes, thank you. I'm sorry if this was asked in a different manner, but on the single family rental side, it seems the business has sort of been winding down. Is that the basic idea of what's going to happen or is this going to come back at some point?
B
Bill Wheat53:11
We have taken the business from one in which we developed the entire neighborhood, stabilized the neighborhood and sold it as a fully stabilized rental property to one in which we're working with those institutional owners of those properties to basically deliver units to them as we complete construction. So they're responsible for the lease up and stabilization process. We do the site identification, acquisition, development. They then do the lease up and stabilization process and ownership. There was probably a little bit of a gap while there was a lot of uncertainty until we knew how that actual act was going to come out, so I think those buyers now can be more comfortable to move forward. So we certainly are not winding that business down and could do more of it going forward depending on investor appetite. And it's a more efficient model so we will operate it with a lower inventory balance than we had historically in the SFR.
A
Alex Baron54:06
So will it still show like an on-balance sheet type business where you report revenues and closings and stuff or is it more of an off-balance sheet or JV or something like
B
Bill Wheat54:18
Same, not a JV. Selling homes to third parties.
A
Alex Baron54:24
Okay. And on the multifamily side, it seems like you guys still have a lot of assets committed, but it doesn't seem like there's too many revenues coming out of it lately. So can you expand on what the future looks like?
B
Bill Wheat54:41
We do expect an increase in revenues in Q4 from multifamily business. So there are a number of projects that are under contract, are completed, are stabilized, and so we've got a little bit of a back-end weighted revenue base here for fiscal 26. And as we look into fiscal 27, we do have an active pipeline that is working and expect to continue to add to that over time, but the revenues have been a bit inconsistent quarter to quarter.
A
Alex Baron55:12
Okay, appreciate it. Thank you guys.
O
Operator55:18
Thank you. And that does conclude today's Q&A session. I will now hand the call over to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks.
P
Paul Romanowski55:25
Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everyone joining us today and we look forward to sharing our fourth quarter and full year results with you on Thursday, October 29th. And to the entire DR Horton team, congratulations on a solid third quarter. Thank you for all that you do.
O
Operator55:43
Thank you. This concludes today's conference and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.