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Video - Financial Congress of the Bank of Russia
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One of the most vibrant discussions of the forum took place at the Financial Congress of the Bank of Russia in St. Petersburg. Sberbank President and Chairman of the Management Board Herman Gref and Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabi...
Questions asked in this interview
1
8:32If not through the interest rate, how else can business be supported in such a situation?
German Oskarovich, I noticed that you seemed not to completely agree with the thesis that our investments have only grown over the last three years. At your Sber business breakfast at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, there was also the anticipated discussion about whether the economy has overcooled or not. You and many of your colleagues believe that it has overcooled. The Bank of Russia says no, it hasn't overcooled, it has just cooled down, because unemployment is not rising, productivity continues to lag behind wage growth, and part-time employment is not that significant either. Inflation has decreased, but it still remains above the target. Where is the Bank of Russia making a mistake here?
Because of the lack of time, you go straight to the point. First of all, I want to say that the Bank of Russia is an independent body, and it has proven its independence under various circumstances. That is actually very important, because in various countries, the price paid when the central bank did not make balanced decisions based on its vision of the state of the economy was very high.
However, it seems to me that in this case, the divergence from the Central Bank's position lies—well, I will speak only for myself—in the asymmetry of risks. The Bank of Russia says: 'The economy is cooling down, but it has not overcooled; the risks of inflation and overcooling are in balance.' I contend that the asymmetry here is evident, and we have passed that point. The decline in investments for four consecutive quarters, along with a number of other indicators—I am ready to discuss them, though I don't want to right now—testifies to this. Restarting an economy from a state of stagnation is significantly more difficult and costly than preventing its transition into a state of overcooling.
I might not want to develop this topic further. Yesterday you had me speaking a lot on this topic as well. Let's see: financiers are sitting here, people who deal with the real economy every day, who face it every day. As I already mentioned, my credit committee has turned into a problem assets committee; I deal significantly more with restructurings there than with issuing new loans. Let's just have the audience vote. Those who believe that the economy is currently already in a state of overcooling, and the risks of stagnation exceed the risks of continued cooling of the economy, please raise your hands.
For the viewers of our broadcast, I will say that there aren't many hands—you could say just a few. All the front rows, especially the employees of the Bank of Russia, naturally did not raise their hands.
Yes. Now let's see: who believes that we still need to continue cooling the economy because it still carries pro-inflationary risks? Please vote. Well, Elena, now I will vote. About five times fewer hands were raised than in the first case. Well, that is the answer to your question. There is a large number of abstentions. But considering that financiers are sitting here, if there were also representatives of the real sector of the economy, I think we would have gotten a different picture.
In fact, I think—you know, I will mention two things. The first thing is that our main problem is that all our authorities are responsible—each is responsible for their own small issue. The Central Bank is responsible for inflation. It has a huge number of levers, and it is responsible only for inflation. Yet, as arguments, an indicator such as unemployment is somehow used, which is more indicative of GDP growth. And here lies the first contradiction. Second, look: it doesn't matter what the absolute rate is; what matters is the real rate. Our real rate is over 10%. And it doesn't matter whether it was 21% or 14% and change; it doesn't matter. Such a real rate is a very heavy burden for the economy and a very heavy burden for investments.
I already mentioned yesterday that today our entire economy lives on floaters and floating rates. In addition to the unaffordability of credit at such rates, enterprise liquidity that could be used for investment activity is also being drained, because it is clear that the main source of investment is still not credit, but an enterprise's own funds. But in an economy where over 70% of loans and the fixed-income market are on floating rates, an immediate rate hike or such a real rate is simultaneously a blow from two sides. That is why it seems to me this is obvious today. So, the first issue: we certainly need to improve the coordination of economic policy. In my view—this is my personal point of view—the government lacks sufficient levers and, unfortunately, we lack coordination with the Central Bank's actions.
The second problem, you know, is that culture determines a great deal for us. And a culture is gradually forming where saying things that do not conform to an established viewpoint is considered poor form. In companies and in the economy in general, I personally always support having an alternative point of view. In the English language, there is even a term, 'party pooper'—a person who inevitably ruins the party. If you are constantly looking for—this does not apply to the Central Bank, I am speaking generally now, excuse me—if you are constantly looking for people who bring you only good news, then just wait.
4 more exchanges in this transcript
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Nabiullina, E. (2026, July 2). "Give it a try yourself!": Gref argues with Nabiullina over the key interest rate [Interview transcript]. Diplomatrutube. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1300207/
MLA
Elvira Nabiullina. ""Give it a try yourself!": Gref argues with Nabiullina over the key interest rate." Diplomatrutube, 2 Jul. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1300207/.
BibTeX
@misc{nabiullina2026_1300207,
author = {Elvira Nabiullina},
title = {"Give it a try yourself!": Gref argues with Nabiullina over the key interest rate},
howpublished = {Interview transcript, Diplomatrutube. CEOInterviews.AI},
year = {2026},
month = {jul},
url = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1300207/},
note = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}
