Ladies and gentlemen, everyone wants to know when is the next Bitcoin bull market going to begin. And I'm here to tell you, put on your seat belts, lock in, because the Bitcoin bull market has already begun. Now, Bitcoin's got to draw down from its all-time high in order to be prepared to slingshot back to new all-time highs. We're down about 40% from $126,000, but you can look to see that Bitcoin bottomed around $60,000. We're up about 25% from that cycle low. On top of that, Bitcoin is up just under 20% since the Iran war started.
Now, the reason why that movement off the bottom is so important is because it happened pretty quickly and it happened fairly violently. But the more important part is that now Bitcoin has stood the test of time. It has done one thing that institutional capital needed it to do: Bitcoin has been the best performing asset during seven consecutive financial crises since 2020. Let me explain. If we look at this chart here from Onramp, it shows that Bitcoin continues to outperform the S&P and gold. And if it's outperforming the S&P and gold, then it's definitely outperforming dollars and Treasuries during these financial crises. Now, it doesn't matter whether we're talking about a global pandemic, foreign countries invading their neighbors, domestic policy decisions like tariffs, or a national banking crisis. 60 days after the event, Bitcoin is the best performing asset, regardless of what you're looking at.
The reason why that's important is because Bitcoin has become the king of safe haven assets. Institutions know that Bitcoin's volatile. They know that they can go and drive asymmetric returns if they buy it and hold it for long enough. But they never understood what was Bitcoin going to do during market drawdowns. What was it going to do during the tough times? Could they take their institutional capital, put it into Bitcoin, and make sure that Bitcoin performed? But the track record is clear now: seven times since 2020, every single financial crisis that's occurred, Bitcoin has been the winner. It's better than holding stocks, it's better than holding gold, it's better than holding dollars or Treasuries. Where else are you going to go? Bitcoin has now gotten onto Wall Street, it's gotten into these people's portfolio, and it's an idea whose time has come and they will not be able to get their minds out of it.
Now, it's not just me saying this, though. Let's go look at what's actually happening in the market. Morgan Stanley, one of the oldest investment banks on Wall Street, recently launched a Bitcoin ETF. Many people would say they're late to the game. They haven't actually launched this thing, even though BlackRock, Fidelity, and many others are already in the market. But Morgan Stanley reported over $100 million of inflows in the first week. And it's the single best ETF launch they've had in the history of the firm. Over a century worth of work, this was the best one. If you don't think that that's going to get the attention of people, if you don't think that there's executives at Morgan Stanley right now saying that Bitcoin thing, we may have a business there. How do we go and do more things with Bitcoin or crypto? How do we go find more clients, more assets, and get more revenue from that sector? Of course, that is going to be the talk internally. And of course, people are going to start asking themselves, "How do we get more client capital into Bitcoin so we can grow our business?"
On top of that, you can go and see Charles Schwab doing almost the exact same thing. They're not going to launch an ETF, but Charles Schwab is saying they now are going to offer direct trading for their users in the Charles Schwab platform. Charles Schwab has been around since the time of J.P. Morgan—not the bank, but the actual person. Charles Schwab is supposed to be the big institutional brokerage firm, but now they realize that Robinhood is kicking their butt. It's growing two times faster than Charles Schwab is going. And a big reason for that is crypto. And so Charles Schwab saying that they now are going to turn on Bitcoin trading inside of their platform, that's a really big deal and I think it's something you can't ignore.
And then of course we can go to the actual institutional product STRC or Stretch. It comes from MicroStrategy. It's the preferred equity offering. We have seen multiple days of over a billion dollars of trading volume in that. We've seen inflows that are record high. Just this week, Michael Saylor announced that they bought $2 billion worth of Bitcoin. These are massive numbers and it shows that there is high demand for digital credit on Wall Street. So whether it is looking at Morgan Stanley, whether it's looking at something like Charles Schwab, or you're looking at MicroStrategy's Stretch product, it is very obvious that Bitcoin is now an acceptable asset to these large pools of capital. And if Bitcoin is an acceptable asset, that means that you're going to see less drawdowns during the volatile moments and you're going to continue to see the outperformance during the good times. And that's exactly what we have seen over the last couple of weeks.
Bitcoin is delivering on its promise. Bitcoin is supposed to be a chaos hedge. It's supposed to provide some certainty in a world of uncertainty. And that's what Bitcoin's been doing. The 60-day return around these financial crises is a stat that you cannot look away from. You cannot ignore it. And on top of that, Bitwise, the crypto asset manager, just came out with a brand new report that I think is something every single person is going to pay attention to. Bitwise's report shows what is the probability of loss across certain time holding periods. And what it shows is that if you hold Bitcoin for at least three years, the probability of losing money on that investment is under 1%. Less than 1% probability of losing money on Bitcoin if you hold for at least 3 years. Do you think a lot of institutions who have a very long duration to their capital aren't interested in all of a sudden going and holding Bitcoin for at least 3 years? Of course. What is the probability of loss of holding any other asset? Bitcoin is very unique. It is not only being able to weather these drawdowns and these uncertainties around geopolitics or other issues, but on top of that is providing the asymmetric return and that ultimately is going to be very attractive to people.
Now, Bitcoin doesn't just operate in a vacuum anymore. It used to operate outside the system completely and what was going on with interest rates or geopolitics or anything else had no impact on Bitcoin. That is no longer Bitcoin's reality. Now, Bitcoin operates in the global macro environment. In the Iran war, when everything else was selling off, Bitcoin held steady and actually increased in price. But we have to look to the stock market to understand some of Bitcoin's future as well. Bitcoin is much more sensitive to global liquidity or what happens with interest rates than stocks are. But the stock market right now is showing numerous signs that we should expect a generational bull run in public equities. First, we can look at what I call the 3-3-3. What is that? The stock market has gone up 3% or more for three straight weeks. Now, why is that important? That's happened three times in the last 76 years. All three times, the stock market went up over 30% over the next 12 months. The average return was 33%. So, 3% or more per week for 3 weeks straight happened three times over 76 years, and the average return was 33%. 3-3, 3-3, 3-3. And that tells us that right now, because we just had over 3% for three weeks straight, we are likely to have a big bull market.
Today's episode is brought to you by Arch Public. I absolutely love these guys. Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Using sophisticated algorithms like the intelligence, arbitrage, and Oracle protocols, Arch Public executes advanced automated crypto strategies fully customized to your goals. Is your aim to accumulate Bitcoin during market dips, generate profits from Ethereum volatility, or sell Solana or XRP in layers as it reclaims all-time highs? If so, Arch Public is built for you. Are you worried about doing it alone? No problem. Arch Public provides everyone, yes, everyone, with hands-on dedicated support from their concierge team to help implement the strategy that you choose. As a preferred trading partner of Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and Gemini, Arch Public offers a proven track record of security and performance so that you can trade with confidence. Sign up today at archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch, no hidden fees, just smarter trading. Your crypto, your exchange, your profits. Go to archpublic.com and tell them I sent you.
But again, you don't have to listen to me. Tom Lee, who's a Wall Street analyst very well known for many of his bullish calls over the years, believes the next 18 to 24 months is going to be some of the best stock market performance in our lifetime. Not in a year, not in 5 years, not in 10 years. He says in our lifetime. Take a listen to what Tom had to say here.
