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Dan Ives
Managing Director & Global Head of Technology Research, Wedbush Securities

Dan Ives: AI’s Next Winners, Losers and Biggest Risks

📅 Sep 11, 2026 Global Money Talk 11 MIN 51027 VIEWS 29 SEGMENTS · 2 SPEAKERS
Dan Ives shares his outlook on the next phase of the AI boom, from his top three stocks to the businesses facing the greatest risks. In this interview, Ives explains why he believes investors misread the software selloff and how AI investment is spreading beyond chips into software, energy and infrastructure. He discusses Nvidia, Microsoft and Palantir as the backbones of the AI revolution, while outlining the challenges facing parts of the software and IT services industries. Ives also reveals what could change his bullish outlook, including data center cancellations, escalating U.S.–China...

What Dan Ives said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, discussed the AI revolution and its impact on tech stocks. He called the 'SaaS apocalypse' a top-three surprise in his 30-year career, noting that software stocks like Palantir, Snowflake, and ServiceNow have rebounded. Ives highlighted the massive data center buildout, with 1,000 to 1,500 data centers in motion, and argued the US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years. He named Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir as top picks, and warned that IT services and companies like Adobe face risks. Ives estimated a $10 multiplier for every dollar spent on Nvidia chips and said the AI buildout is in year three of an 8-10 year cycle. He dismissed geopolitical fears as buying opportunities.

Key takeaways

  1. Ives called the 'SaaS apocalypse' a top-three surprise in his 30-year career, with software stocks like Palantir and Snowflake rebounding.
  2. Ives estimated a $10 multiplier across tech for every dollar spent on Nvidia chips.
  3. Ives named Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir as the three backbones of the AI revolution.
  4. Ives said the US is ahead of China in tech for the first time in 30 years, citing 1,000-1,500 data centers in motion.
  5. Ives warned that IT services and companies like Adobe face disintermediation risks.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
1,000 and 1,500 data centers in motion to be built metric 1:35
$10 multiplier across tech for every dollar spent on Nvidia chip metric 6:49
8 to 10 year AI buildup cycle, currently in year three timeline 6:49
50, 60 percentage decline in software stocks during SaaS apocalypse metric 2:31
25 30% data center cancellation rates that would make Ives bearish metric 9:26
11:30 p.m. metaphorical time in the AI party other 9:20

Chapters

  1. 0:00SaaS apocalypse surprise
  2. 0:59Yorkville ABS launch
  3. 1:35Data center tour in Nebraska
  4. 2:31Software winners and losers
  5. 6:49AI trade spreading beyond tech
  6. 7:36Top three picks
  7. 8:07Risks and bearish conditions
  8. 10:19Geopolitical noise as opportunity

Questions asked in this interview

8
  1. 0:43And how can people learn more about it?
  2. 1:30And you just got back from Nebraska. What did you see there?
  3. 2:12Um, looking back at the year so far, what are or one or two things that surprised you the most about the tech landscape, um, so far year to date?
  4. 6:07Um, what's next in terms of this AI trade phase?
  5. 7:30What is what are your, um, call it top three picks in terms of names right now?
  6. 7:56And where in the sector where in tech do you see a greater risk to the downside than upside from here say over the next 12 18 months?
  7. 8:25Whether it's fundamental or macro or both?
  8. 9:22Perfect. What would make you bearish?
Dan Ives 0:00 ↗
This is probably a top three surprise that I've seen in my almost 30 years. To me, it's shocking how the narrative took over to the point that investors really thought that the software space was almost done. I almost feel bad for investors personally that sell stocks on geopolitical. There'll be the doomsdayers just like what we saw with Iran in March and oil. Look how that played out. Those will have ebbs and flows, but you have to understand longer term what's happening here. And I just continue to view those as opportunities relative to our long-term view from COVID to different things we've seen in between. Tune out the noise, eye on the prize. And remember...
Interviewer 0:43 ↗
Well, Dan Ives, great to see you as always. Great to see you as always. Um, normally I don't need to introduce you, but you do have a new firm, Yorkville Ives. What is it? Why did you do it? And how can people learn more about it?
Dan Ives 0:59 ↗
Yeah. So, I created Yorkville ABS in mid-July is when we announced it. And look, it's a modern merchant bank. Yeah. I found great partners. Yorkville, which is a longtime hedge fund, very successful one. People I've known personally. And it was to really break glass and build a bank focused on tech, energy, and infrastructure. And for me, after my career going back, you know, many, many years, this was the next step for me. And I'm just so excited to be doing this at this great time in the fourth industrial revolution.
Interviewer 1:30 ↗
Awesome. And you just got back from Nebraska. What did you see there?
Dan Ives 1:35 ↗
Yeah, so we did a data center tour in rural Nebraska. Look, I think the reality is, and it's happened all across the Midwest. I've seen it across Midwest, Southeast, Texas, everywhere. We've got 1,000 and 1,500 data centers in motion to get built. That is the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution. Politically, you're definitely going to get into sort of a battle, a boxing match here as we go into midterms. But in my view, first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech. You need to see these data centers built and they're really expanding at a, I'd say, a jaw-dropping rate.
Interviewer 2:12 ↗
Yeah. Yeah. Let's let's talk tech stocks in general. Um, there's been no shortage of volatility in the sector this year. Um, looking back at the year so far, what are or one or two things that surprised you the most about the tech landscape, um, so far year to date?
Dan Ives 2:31 ↗
I think what surprised me most, and I'd say this is probably a top three surprise that I've seen in my almost 30 years in the market, was the SaaS apocalypse and how investors actually believed and sold these stocks down 50, 60, and we talked about at the time like it was the most disconnected trade I've seen in my career. Yeah. And I think now as it plays out, not just from Palantir to Snowflake to ServiceNow, now to so many others, I think that to me is shocking how the narrative took over to the point that investors really thought that software space was almost done.
Interviewer 3:16 ↗
Right? And obviously the the narrative seems to be changing now about the SaaS apocalypse. Tell us more about that.
Dan Ives 3:24 ↗
Look, it remember so many investors that are bearish and they've missed every transformational growth stock the last 25 years focused on valuation. They call these stocks in from the 20 to 4, they're New York City office building. For me, three and a half million air miles later, like we see the demand, we see what's happening out there. The infrastructure led by godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia to the hyperscalers, the use cases are going to be built by software. And I'm not saying there's not software companies that going to be disintermediated, Adobe among others, but you can't just paint them all with the same brush. I think that right now is as we get into the second, third, fourth derivatives of AI, you're seeing this tech rally spread. And I think that is a very important dynamic playing out as the bears watch it from hibernation mode because they can't see AI in the spreadsheets.
Interviewer 4:17 ↗
Staying with software for a little bit, um, who are what are the types of companies or you could even name names, um, that are going to be the likely winners and what are the kinds of companies and who are the companies that are going to be likely losers.
Dan Ives 4:31 ↗
Look at Palantir. I mean that's the messy of AI in terms of what they've built, right? And that's a stock that went from elementary school, you know, to a teenager to now, you know, almost $200 because they've played out the execution story. Then you look at names like Snowflake, you look at names like MongoDB, you look what's happened Cyber Security, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto among others. It speaks to my view. There will be ones Adobe into and some others that clearly have uphill battle. But you cannot just say AI is going to wipe out software.
Interviewer 5:08 ↗
Right. Right. And it also looks seems like, um, at at one point the market was very bearish on sort of these system of record type companies. But I think more and more people and investors are realizing that vibe coding a your own CRM is not the same thing as operating your own CRM to run a global business.
Dan Ives 5:31 ↗
Talk to a CIO. Find but go out in New York City, find me a CIO that's going to vibe code for their organization and rip out Salesforce. If you find them, I want to be at that meeting. I think that's that's the fundamental issue. I'm not saying Salesforce has structural problems that they have to navigate in AI and Benioff knows that, right? But I think some of these valuations reflect just too much negative. But think about the narrative stories. Nvidia stock's not working. Then what could happen in the last quarter? Microsoft, you know, beast thrown in the penalty box. Now look at it.
Interviewer 6:07 ↗
Speaking of stocks that are not working, um, even this AI trade has had different phases, right? So AI trade wasn't hasn't been just one thing over the last call it three plus years almost four years now. Um, you know, at first it was obviously Nvidia and you know who owns the who owns the model or you know Microsoft having economic interest in in OpenAI. Then it sort of moved on to you know infrastructure then the data center build out the bottlenecks the the power the turbines the generators even networking memory. Um, what's next in terms of this AI trade phase?

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Ives, D. (2026, September 11). Dan Ives: AI’s Next Winners, Losers and Biggest Risks [Interview transcript]. Global Money Talk. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1344921/

MLA

Dan Ives. "Dan Ives: AI’s Next Winners, Losers and Biggest Risks." Global Money Talk, 11 Sep. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1344921/.

BibTeX
@misc{ives2026_1344921,
  author       = {Dan Ives},
  title        = {Dan Ives: AI’s Next Winners, Losers and Biggest Risks},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Global Money Talk. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {sep},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/1344921/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}