[Applause] Thank you very much, Your Royal Highness Crown Prince Haakon. Thank you very much. I look forward to meeting with you later, and thank you by the way for your own personal commitment on the climate issue. It's quite important. Eivind Wolden, the Governor and Chair of Norges Bank, Nikolai Tangen. Thank you for inviting me, Nikolai. I am honored to be here. Especially, it is an honor to share the stage with Christine Lagarde. That was a brilliant speech, really and truly, it was outstanding. And Christine, we have become very, very close friends over the years and it's an honor to be here with you. And Kristen Halvorsen, thank you very much, look forward to the conversation after these remarks. It's a great pleasure to be back here in Oslo.
I've been here for three days, and one of the first questions I've received from friends that I meet here is about Donald Trump. I don't intend to talk about Donald Trump today, but I met with a friend who is a Norwegian businessman who does business in the United States, and I asked him how he felt about Trump's policies and decisions. And he said, "I feel fine." And there was something about the way he said it that reminded me of a story that I heard actually 40 years ago. I come from Nashville, Tennessee, the home of country music and the Grand Ole Opry. And back in those days, they had a comedian named Minnie Pearl who wore a calico dress and a straw hat with the price tag still hanging from the hat. And she had homespun rural humor. And she told a story. I was driving back to my farm after a day of town hall meetings as a young congressman, and she told about a farmer who was involved in an accident and he sued the other driver for damages.
And when the other driver's lawyer had the chance to cross-examine this farmer, he said, "Now, isn't it true that immediately after this accident, you said, 'I feel fine'?" And the farmer said, "Well, it's not that simple. You see, I was driving my cow to town in the back of my truck, and this fella came driving across the center of the highway..." And the lawyer said, "I object, your honor. We don't want to hear a long involved story. Just answer the question, yes or no. Did you or did you not say immediately after the accident, 'I feel fine'?"
Farmer said, "Well, I was leading up to that. You see, I was driving my cow to town in the back of my truck, and this fella came driving across the center line and ran right smack dab into my truck and knocked it over and threw me out and threw the cow out. I was on one side and the cow was on the other, and the policeman came up and took one look at that cow and said, 'She is suffering.' Pulled out his gun and shot her right between the eyes. Came around to my side of the truck and said, 'How do you feel?'" And so there was something about the businessman's comment that reminded me of that story.
Well, there's no doubt that we're at a critical moment in the global sustainability transition, and it's always faced significant headwinds. But as President Lagarde has very eloquently said, those headwinds have become stronger, and everybody knows it. At my investment firm, Generation Investment Management, we do an annual sustainability trends report. This is the ninth year. We couldn't find any place where it was all put together and so we've tried to do it each year. And our key findings this year are that there is some pause, but there's also reason for some good feelings.
You know, 10 years ago the projections were that we would reach a 3.6 degree Celsius increase in temperatures. That has now been cut down to 2.7. So we've shaved off nearly 1%, but it's not nearly enough. And since 2001 we have more or less stalled out at that level. The estimated temperature rise under current national policies has not moved in four years. And we all know the reasons. There is a huge political pushback that has made it harder and harder for countries to adopt new policies and improve their climate ambition.
You know, last week the Swedish Nobel Committee — I, by the way, much prefer the Norwegian Nobel Committee — but the Swedish committee awarded its economics prize this year to three distinguished economists. Half to Daron Acemoglu and half to two of his colleagues. And I think it's worth reflecting on what they are honored for finding because it's one of the more consequential awards in the last several decades in my opinion. Acemoglu, who has had a narrative through-line for decades, makes the point that innovation is the real key to economic prosperity and growth. But his two colleagues have pointed out that one of the factors that stifles innovation is when powerful incumbent industries that have a reason to fear the changes that come with innovation might have gathered too much political power and as a result are able to stop the introduction of innovations.
And the fossil fuel industry is significantly more efficient at capturing politicians than capturing emissions. And as a result, they have used the accumulated political power to push back and to blunt the progress that the world needs very seriously. We are continuing to put 175 million tons of man-made global warming pollution into the troposphere every day. And it accumulates to the point where it presently traps as much extra heat each day as would be released by 750,000 first generation atomic bombs exploding on the earth's surface every 24 hours.
This is causing a massive disruption of the water cycle. It is creating massive consequences that are getting worse by the day. And as we seek to restart the progress that stalled out in 2021, we also confront a wave of right-wing populism that has at best complicated politics around the world. And we have seen a tumultuous few years with the sadistic invasion of Ukraine by Russia, with the interruption of gas supplies, as President Lagarde has eloquently described, the pandemic, which we want to forget quickly, but really roiled politics in quite a significant number of ways. And lest we forget, we are still coping with the hyper-globalization that followed China's admission to the WTO, with the centrifugal redistribution of many higher-wage jobs to low-wage venues around the world and an increase in hyper-inequality that has caused a lot of dissatisfaction that infects the politics of every nation.
So that lack of progress is why this year is so critical. And in less than a month, the nations of the world will meet in Brazil for COP 30, the annual UN-led international climate negotiations. And 10 years ago in Paris, 195 countries agreed to get to net zero by 2050. Only one nation has withdrawn. I'm embarrassed to remind you that it's my nation. But I also want to note a significant mathematical equation that some people seem to forget episodically. 195 minus one does not equal zero. Other nations are stepping up and filling the gap, and the European Union is playing a leadership role, and no nation is providing as much leadership truly as Norway is providing.
And unfortunately, the election of President Trump has complicated this quite significantly, and his actions are influencing some other nations which have slowed down their own progress. But no other nation has withdrawn. We are seeing new national plans come out. So far they are much weaker than they need to be. And the weakness of these plans is worrisome but not entirely surprising because if the largest emitter of global warming pollution in history is not participating in solving this collective problem, then that can damage the motivation of other countries to tackle it themselves.
But Norway is one of the nations poised to usher in a reversal of what I believe is destined to be a short-lived trend of backsliding. In submitting a new climate plan ahead of COP 30, Norway has indicated that action is still on the agenda. And of course, as always, the devil is in the details. But I want to applaud Norway's robust and ongoing commitment to helping developing nations adapt to the changes that can no longer be avoided. In fact, Norway's track record of overseas development assistance and other aid is truly remarkable. You've routinely committed more than 1% of your national income to these purposes. No other country I'm aware of can match that record. My own country is closer to a quarter of a percentage point. And that's before the current administration started slashing foreign aid.
And Norway has committed to doubling its climate finance by 2026 compared with the 2020 figure and has already achieved this goal for the past two years. Norway has also played a stalwart role in helping to save the world's tropical forests, contributing the equivalent of many billions of US dollars to that cause. It is important to recognize, however, that government-to-government aid, as essential as it is, pales in comparison to the needed access to private capital in order to finance the energy transition.
One of the most hopeful and optimistic trends of the last few years — last year for example, if you look at all of the new electricity generation installed worldwide, everywhere in the world, many are surprised to hear that the percentage represented by renewable energy was 93%. And the International Energy Agency has projected that in the years ahead, it's going to exceed 95% renewable energy. But where did the money come from to install that 93% renewable energy? 85% of the money came from private capital, only 15% from government support.
However, there is an unequal maldistribution of access to capital. There is what the economists call a home bias. And there is also a reluctance on the part of investors and lenders to commit capital infusions into developing countries where there is a noticeable risk of currency valuation on a sudden basis which might cause them to lose their money. Of course, they're going to be concerned — access to courts for the enforcement of contracts, continuity of government, corruption in some areas. All of these factors have raised the interest rates for developing countries two to three times higher than what Norway or the United States would pay. And as a result, they have been deprived of access to capital.
Take Africa for example. Africa has 60% of the prime solar energy potential of the entire world. But Africa has fewer solar panels installed than the single US state of Florida. That is a disgraceful commentary on the current system for the allocation of capital around the world. Developing countries as a whole are getting a tiny share of the capital necessary to finance the energy transition and the larger sustainability transition. They are getting 43% of the new investment in fossil fuel development, virtually all of it for exporting fossil fuel resources from developing countries to the wealthy countries. My friends in the activist community in developing countries call it fossil fuel colonialism.
And of course, the resource curse that countries like Nigeria have experienced is to be avoided, especially now that we have a superior source of energy in renewable energy, both solar and wind. And the cost of solar and wind continue to go down very, very impressively.
Now this nation has been, as I've said, a very impressive leader in all of these matters, and Norway's power sector is already one of the cleanest in the world. 98% of Norway's electricity capacity is carbon-free, and of course you have a lot of hydro power, but you've made the right choices. And we are seeing an inflection point as the cost of solar in particular reaches unprecedented low levels. Take Pakistan for example. They are installing cheap Chinese solar panels at a record rate. In some areas of Pakistan, it is now not uncommon for a bride's dowry to be three panels and an inverter. And that's a true story.
And we are seeing this take off in so many countries. Imports of solar panels are rising very quickly not only in the developing countries of Africa but in Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the world. And when solar panels are coupled with batteries, then the transformation really begins to take hold. In my nation, the California grid is getting 20% of its power in the early evening from batteries charged with sunshine earlier in the day. I flew here from Australia, and South Australia gets 30% of its power from batteries in the early evening. Their goal is to reach 100%. And the experts believe they definitely will reach that goal.
So the second largest market for fossil fuels after electricity generation is transportation. And worldwide, the sales volume of electric cars is up more than 30% this year. It will likely be a quarter of all cars sold worldwide in 2025. And Norway once again is the global leader. Cars with plugs have been more than 90% of the market for years already. And the figures for the month of September just came in. 98.3% of all new car sales in Norway are electric. So I think you can check that box. Norway, thank you very much for your leadership. Your national fleet is already one-third electric on its way toward 100%.
And the rest of us can look around Norway right now and begin to see the start of a post-oil future. But there is a huge geopolitical challenge associated with both the solar boom, the battery boom, and the electric transportation boom. China has made decisions that have allowed it to dominate the market in all of these sustainability-focused industries in the future. During the month of May this year, China installed as much new solar electric capacity every day as would have been provided by opening three 1-gigawatt nuclear plants every day, 30 days in a row. It's difficult to imagine any other country accomplishing that, and in every one of the related fields they have made a decision to move aggressively to dominate those industries.
So we must respond to that challenge. China seems to think that they really will make the 21st century a Chinese century and provide leadership for the entire world, perhaps in the geopolitical sphere as well. I don't think they can. I don't think the world will follow China because the world does not, generally speaking, agree with the values of China. We value freedom, even though it seems at times to be under assault. But let me also make the point that suspicion of Chinese motives might well be warranted on many fronts, including the security risks that they pose to NATO countries and European countries more generally. The Chinese economy is itself a long way from clean. But we have to recognize what they have accomplished with the energy transition.
Norway is inspiring countries around the world. We have to respond to and manage China's dominance of these technologies. And yet we also need to recognize that since Paris, the direction of travel for the world economy has been clear. Companies that want to continue to compete for global markets will have to make sustainability central to their business operations. The United States is not participating in the way that it should. But I do believe that change is coming in my country as well.
So despite the political difficulties of the moment, we cannot let the ambition for a better world wither away on our watch. So let me close by citing Norway's celebrated playwright Henrik Ibsen. And I am not going to be brave enough, as Christine was, to even attempt to say it in Norwegian. Oh jeez, Christine. At a time when we've seen institutions of all kinds, but particularly financial institutions, back away from their earlier climate commitments, I'm reminded of Ibsen's The Master Builder and the quote: 'Castles in the air, they are so easy to take refuge in and so easy to build, too.' But I'd like to remind us of another passage which to me demonstrates our collective task, from Peer Gynt. He wrote: 'A thousand words can't make the mark. A single deed will leave.'
So, the time has come for all of us to summon our strength and ignore our critics, turn our words into deeds that will collectively safeguard the future of human civilization. We have everything we need. The International Energy Agency tells us the technologies are there for 65% of the way to reducing to net zero. Proven business models are already known. We have clear line of sight to the other 35%.
Every morally-based challenge that humanity has faced has gone through periods when the advocates felt despair. The abolition of slavery, women's suffrage, ending apartheid in South Africa — it seemed at times impossible. As the late great Nelson Mandela once said, it always seems impossible until it's done. And when the underbrush of argumentation is cleared away and the central issue is revealed to be a choice between right and wrong, then at a very deep level, the outcome becomes foreordained.
The only thing some people think we have in short supply is political will. But please always remember that political will is itself a renewable resource. Thank you.
[Applause]
