Why Ray Dalio Sees Risk of US Debt Crisis

Good to have you on Inside. It's always a pleasure to be here.

I think it's just important to understand the mechanics. That's why I wrote the book How Countries Go Broke, because there's a mechanical process and people don't understand it, and it's really quite simple. The way it works for countries is the same. It works for individuals, except countries can print money. Okay, but one man's debts are another man's liabilities. So what happens is when debts accumulate faster than they're paid back, then debt service costs grow. And so that becomes a higher and higher percentage of one's cash flow. And when that happens, it starts to squeeze out spending. And so then you have a problem. So in the United States, so we have that dynamic as it squeezes it out. Then also one man's assets are another man's liabilities for debt. And so you have to think about what are they holding. And is it holding wealth. And is it effective. So those are the two drivers. And so what we're seeing now, for example, on the U.S. debt is that we spend about 7 trillion a year. Think about this like a business or an individual. They spend seven, okay, they take in five. Okay, spending 40% more than they're taking in. And they've been doing that for a number of years. So as a result, debt and debt service payments are building. And as a result, they are squeezing out the spending. So we have that kind of a dynamic going on. Then we also have one man's debts are another man's assets. And so when you see interest rates rise naturally because of this supply-demand imbalance, it produces losses in those assets. And so think about bonds as an asset to hold and how bad bonds have been as interest rates rise. And that has an effect. So we have that picture from when you were trading, right.

There's always a be long and short, depending on the nature of the cycle, right. When things get worse. But what we have now is a situation where there's the rate at which it's compounding, the size of it. You know, why does the market go down? The market goes down because there's too much debt and we're adding to it at that rate. So, and then we're approaching our limits. Okay. And then there are geopolitical changes, you know, that the United States could run large deficits. But now because of conflicts, we also have a dynamic in which those who want to hold U.S. debt, they're holding too much already. So we have that dynamic going on. And you could see it if you were to just calculate, which is in the book I wrote, you know, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. It shows how that debt service payment then is squeezing out spending. And so you can see that dynamic work.

Yes. In other words, within the next 24 months, 36 months, I think within the next three years. What we have is that issue of that squeezing it out. And so when you take a look at literally what that means and then what the impact of that is going to be on asset prices and interest rates matter. So you have a boom which is concentrated in one area really, that is heavily debt-financed. It didn't used to be, but you could see as that cycle happens that what happens is increasingly where it used to be equity, now you have to go to debt. And that plays a bigger role.

If we get to six, and is six actually the ceiling? It might be six and a half. I think that you don't look at the interest rate. It'll have an effect. Of course, you look at the interest rate, but what I mean is you look at what is the amount of savings, what is the total amount of capital and what is the demand for capital. And when you get that imbalance, that supply-demand imbalance, then you have to have the price of it go up until you ration that demand. So you have to ask yourself what is it that's going to be rationed in that. And so then we're dealing with it's not going to be government deficits because they're inelastic. And in other words, in fact, if you had a worse economy they would increase. So then you find out who would the sectors that are squeezed out. Is it housing? Housing would be quick. But with such a large difference in financial conditions of the wealthy and the poor, you're going to see that happening more at the lower end of that spectrum. So is it auto loans? Is it those kinds of loans that get squeezed out first. And something like data centers come later. And so that's why you start to have more of a wealth conflict because then the people who have less get squeezed the most in that part of the cycle.

Well, the magnitude we're talking about, the enormous magnitude. So, yes, the United States now is running large deficits and it is receiving a lot of capital. However, because of the changes, foreign capital represents about a third, almost a third, in the amount of money that we're relying on in terms of debt. And that is also then coming, has been coming from the Chinese and the Japanese. They've constituted a high percentage of that debt. And so, and then there were other countries and the Middle East and so on. But they're starting to get squeezed. And also there were these geopolitical issues that enter into it. So the Chinese don't want to continue to accumulate. There are geopolitical issues as well as economic issues. When you have a debtor-creditor relationship and you have an adversary relationship, that's a very difficult dynamic, particularly the sizes. And then Japan, Japan has lent a lot of money because of other desires to change their economic policies in ways that I would describe. They've lent a lot of money. Now they want to take back some of that money, a lot of that. So not only do you have the total size being very large and the size of our deficits are very large and total financing needs is very large because it's not just the fiscal deficit of the government. It is also the I and other large expenditures. So where does that saving come from? That comes from those sources which are tightening. And that's why you're seeing the changes in interest rates. In other words, the interest rates change. It's like the cut. It is the cost of money. And when there's a supply-demand imbalance, you see then interest rates rise to ration credit. And that's what we're seeing.

Well, the European situation is the same. And because there is a lack of adequate borrowing, I imagine you've, in Europe and large parts of the United States, you've lived on the borrowing and then, you know, when you reach your borrowing limit, as France has done, then there's a bind, because then you cannot continue to add to that. You have to start to run budget deficits, because you almost get to the point where you have to pay back. In other words, if you borrow, you have to pay back. And when that happens, then you have a situation very similar to that. So now you see the desire for greater taxation. You see people leave, you see whether they're from France or whether parts of the United States, they leave. And then that creates a problem. So France is in that particular position. But it's a European problem too. So we can see that there's been too much of that debt. And then of course, it's gone down. So when it's gone down, it's like an asset, bonds. And as interest rates rise, bonds go down. And so look at the difference in the returns of bonds and equities as a result of this, they have been a negative reinforcement. So now you're seeing money wanting to leave some of these asset classes when the supply-demand imbalance is very large.

But when we look at the United States and we look at any country, there has been losses in these bonds. Right. And so by this dynamic rate we talk about concerns within the debt market.