The victimization that he has is so massive, you know, that he's always being victimized. Someone's always [__] him. That's his whole worldview.
Hi everyone, this is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
Scott, you're missing the blizzard. It's outside. I should pull it back.
It's something else. Can you see that or not? I see a city being snowed on by an old lady.
Today, it's nuts. It is really quite a blizzard. It's a blizzard. It's what's happening here. So, just so you know, as we tape, over 40 million people in the US are under a blizzard warning, by the way, and snow dropping 3 in an hour in some locations. It really is still going on here in New York. And it's crazy. There's a lot of snow happening. We all thought the snow was over. Maybe I'll go take a walk in New York and walk in Central Park and contemplate my life.
Do what I would do. Go to Shea Margo and get [__] up and establish eye contact with a nice young Russian lady.
I'm getting an award tonight in Brooklyn. I've got to go out there.
I am. I'm getting the governor's award.
I'm getting an award tonight in Brooklyn. That is the most Kara Swisher thing ever said.
I'm getting an award in Brooklyn.
Yes, I have to go there. Yeah, it's for the Ambies.
What do you... Okay. All right. Fine. I'll play along. There's a podcast. What are you getting an award for?
For being old, from the governor's award.
The Oscars is a podcast. I thought that was the vibes. What? What are those? What is it called? The Webby? No, that's the... Oh, the...
No, I don't know. Whatever. They're trying to make...
the mic. That's called... That's what podcast.
This is not the BAFTAs or the Oscars. This is the podcast version. I'm getting the great contributions to podcasting award.
I guess here's something crazy going on. Mexican security forces killed the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and eight other cartel members in a Mexican military operation aided by US intelligence support. And then they went crazy, these cartels, and they're like they're in Puerto Vallarta like Captain Stubing, that's how I know Puerto Vallarta from Love Boat, and they're like bombing the whole place. And all these Americans have been either diverted from going there or cannot leave there, not just Americans but lots of people, and they're like attacking neighborhoods. And this footage is really something. All these burnt cars, and it's really something. I don't know what you think about it.
I don't... The issue is, it's not... I mean, it's violence, but it feels like it's more structural governance and an economic issue that's been evolving for nearly two decades, and that is these cartels are so inextricably integrated into the economy and even the government.
That's a really good point. And it's not a traditional drug war in the old sense. It's sort of fragmentation and power vacuums, right? After the breakup of more powerful consolidated cartels, dozens of regional groups now compete for territory and trafficking routes and increasingly diversified revenue streams, like things like fuel theft, extortion, human smuggling, I mean all kinds of... supposedly they've interrupted the avocado supply chain. And oftentimes the violence is about local market control because Mexico is a big economy rather than exports.
I guess that this is the reaction, like to just show what they can do to upset economics, right? I guess that's what they're doing like with these. I mean, the thing that does so much damage to this...
Hands down my favorite place to travel in the world, and I'm very fortunate I get to go to a lot of... Every year I go with a group of guys to Tulum. I love Cabo. I think San Miguel de Allende. I just think Mexico. I also think it's the best bargain in the world. It's six-star service and food and culture and vistas for four-star prices, whereas in Europe you get a lot of five-star service for six-star prices. I absolutely love the food, the culture, the people. And what happens is Americans immediately are like, 'Oh, no, I'm not going to travel there.' And the reality is most of this violence is confined to what I'll call Mexican-on-Mexican violence, but it makes you think, should I?
These photos of tourists from, you know, they're all in their hotels near beaches and they're just showing enormous amounts of fires. I guess there was one guy who was in his hotel room and these two cartel members on motorcycles set fire to like a version of a 7-Eleven there, like just in front of him. And it was really... it's really interesting to experience it this way, like sort of online, like, 'Hey, I was down here having a margarita and oh yeah, the drug cartels just bombed a car in my...'
This does sort of signal a shift because for the last... in recent years Mexico's federal strategy, and some people call it appeasement, has been more about containment over confrontation. This is confrontation. And also we don't want to have an honest conversation. The US plays a role here. There's a dimension here, and that is a lot of our firearms flow south. You know what drives a lot of the profits here is US drug demand, and fentanyl production and trafficking have reshaped the supply chain and the economics of the trade. Lower input costs, much higher potency, smaller shipping volumes. So the synthetic... the power or economic potency of synthetics have changed the incentive structure. You don't need large coca fields or massive kind of drug smuggling convoys. You need kind of like chemical precursors and distribution networks and enforcement muscle. But this is, you know... Yeah. But let me be clear, I'm still going to Mexico. I love Mexico.
Anyway, it's a black eye for Claudia Sheinbaum, I have to say. Even if the US helped her and stuff like that. Anyway, we'll move on.
Well, is it a black eye or does she show some muscle here, like...
By doing something about... I don't know. I don't know. We're going to keep watching it and I hope people there are safe. How is Resistant Unsubscribe going? Some of you have been writing in asking, let's check in on that for alternatives to big tech that they're unsubscribing from. I'm going to help you out here. Scott, we asked David Pierce, editor at large of The Verge and co-host of The Vergecast, to give us some recommendations. Everyone's going to help you, Scott. Let's listen to what David has to say.
If I was trying to get rid of big tech apps in my life, my top three or four recommendations would definitely start with Proton. Proton is this company started by a bunch of CERN scientists in Switzerland that is very privacy focused. And over the years, they've actually built a series of apps that are basically as good as everything you get from Google. They have a drive, they have an email, they have calendar, they have all this stuff. The next one is probably Signal, which is the messaging app I think everyone should switch to. There are things that are good about WhatsApp even though it's owned by Meta, but Signal is an organization run by the right kind of people who believe in the right kind of things. And then the third one is slightly more afield, but I would say anyone who wants to do smart home stuff in their life right now should use Home Assistant. You can use Alexa, you can use HomeKit, you can use Google, but Home Assistant is this very specific, hackable, open system that you control much more completely than you control any of those other systems. Everything from the stuff on your doorbell that's looking out at the world and seeing people come up to your door to like the baby monitors inside of your house. Who runs that stuff matters.
That was great. That was great. Those are all three terrific recommendations. So, what's going on, Scott?
Well, first off, it bears repeating. You have been the biggest supporter of this and I very much appreciate it.
But as we wind down February, so the two objectives were what I call signal and incentives. I wanted to send a signal to the American public that they have this weapon hiding in plain sight and that their economic decisions can have an impact. I think we've hit that on all levels. We've gotten just a ton of media exposure, a ton of unsubscribes. People... I do think there's a large percentage of the populace who now realizes that economic strength is strength. The second objective was incentives, and that is to reconfigure the incentives among big tech executives to think twice before they enable or facilitate. I'm not sure we've accomplished that, quite frankly. My friends have said it's a conversation on product management teams, but it's not a board-level conversation yet. So the question is, as we wind down February, what do we do? And I was contacted by the Dutch historian Rutger Bregman, who's been instrumental in this.
Yeah. I'm a huge fan, by the way. He's only 37.
And he reached out and said, 'FYI,' for people who don't know, he confronted the issue of billionaires at Davos and got a lot of...
He called them a bunch of tax avoiders.
He basically said, 'None of you want to talk about the real issue on the table, which was tax avoidance.' He's unafraid. I love the guy. And anyways, I love authors and academics who are just sort of unafraid. And he contacted me and said, 'You've got the brand, the visibility, and the momentum. We have this group of really talented young people and some traction in something called Quit GPT.' And his view is you need to consolidate and focus on one and try and bring them down. And so we're trying to figure out... and I'm going to speak to you about it and some other people, but I've had a bunch of organizations, a bunch of Congress people, elected representatives all say, how do we continue this and how do we make it more effective? And it's gotten... I did an analysis for us to get the number of visitors, unique visitors to our site, if we paid for it, and we haven't paid a dime, would cost us somewhere between 5 and 9 million dollars. It just shows the power of social media in terms of the platforms we've built and the content stream we have and how powerful podcasts are driving. But I need to, in the next several days, figure out what we do in March. Is it focusing? Is it different media outlets? What is it that helps maintain this momentum? Is it consolidating? There are three or four similar movements around the world. Do we all consolidate? I was on a call with Recorded and I was like, if the British, the Russians, and the Americans can come together to defeat Germany, maybe we should figure out a way to all consolidate and come together. But the two points are: distill down to a smaller number of targets, if you will, and also do what you said, structure some full-time resources.
Yeah, I think so. So that you can... they just tell you what to do, right? Essentially, there's a lot of people who do that. One of the things that's, you know, someone who I'm really impressed with, that maybe... well, she's a Democrat. She wrote a great book about young people organizing, Amanda Litman, who runs Run for Something. And I had her on the podcast. She's incredibly, you know, strategic in terms of figuring out what people need to do, especially young people. It seems like this is something you need to get people who are actually a little more, you know, that really can focus energetically. I don't mean professionally, like because there's a lot of professional organizers that don't really get stuff done. I think you've really caught lightning in a bottle here and you've got to keep doing it. Anyway, we're still working on an event, Scott and I are, and so we're going to do that hopefully. And we'll see where it goes from there. But let's move on to the stuff we have to cover today. Donald Trump is increasing his global tariff to 15% from 10%, effective immediately, just days after the Supreme Court struck down most of his global tariffs. In a 6-to-3 decision, the court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority when he invoked the Emergency Powers Act. Trump called the decision ridiculous and anti-American. He also insulted the justices personally quite a bit. That was, you know, it was worse than that. He's just being a giant [__] baby. His latest workaround uses a 1974 trade law that allows him to impose temporary tariffs for 150 days. He just posted on Truth Social a little while ago about the court empowering him to use the tariffs in a more powerful and obnoxious way. He's just, you know, he's just... the court, let me be clear, was very clear about what he was doing was illegal, essentially, and that Congress... and Gorsuch, Judge Gorsuch, had a really eviscerating take on how Congress has sort of abrogated its responsibility. They also are questioning... one of the other justices also questioned whether the... who was against it, questions if the refunds could happen. Scott Bessent sort of is trying to hedge that bet because they've got to give billions in, many, many billions in, I think 175 billion, something like that, in returns to US businesses, etc. What did you think about this and the reaction? I'll just... let me actually read through this stuff. We can discuss the whole thing. The repercussions of this tariff position. The EU just hit pause on its US trade deal until it gets more clarity on what Trump is doing. Thousands of companies around the world have already filed lawsuits challenging the tariffs even before the Supreme Court's ruling. So there's all a market in that. Estimates suggest the government could owe, again, more than 175 billion in refunds. The Supreme Court is leaving the refund question in lower courts. This is just Kavanaugh who warned the process. It's going to be a mess. And it is. Let's listen to Secretary Bessent, what he said about these payoffs. He spoke to Fox News after the decision. This could take months. This could take years to litigate and to get to the payouts. And if there is a payout, it looks like it's just going to be the ultimate corporate welfare.
Oh, please, Scott. You took the money from them. Give it back. So talk about what the next move is for everybody and the reaction that Trump had, which was very... I honestly thought it was dangerous given the political heat right now, especially for the Supreme Court justices.
Well, it's weird. Everyone says he's a loser. There's no doubt it's a check on his authority and, you know, a rejection or a gag reflex. The primary purpose or power of Congress is the power of the purse. They're the ones that are supposed to... I mean, what you've had on a meta level, and Barry Goldwater back in the 70s warned of this, there's been a slow abrogation of power to the executive branch, and a lot of the power was checked by norms, not by laws. And then someone showed up and said, [__] the norms, I'm declaring wars and tariffs on my own. And one of the reasons you've seen so many Republican Congress people decide to retire is they're like, it's one thing to be in the minority and know that you've been defenestrated or neutered. It's another thing to be in the majority and the Speaker of the House is not the Speaker of the House. He's the Speaker of the White House. He's there just to run roughshod over us and pretend he represents Congress. He doesn't. He represents the president. And Republicans are like, 'Wait, I thought we were in charge and had some say here, and we don't.' And these tariffs would not have gone through. There are enough Republicans against the tariffs. You know, they're supposed to be the free marketers. So this is a victory for co-equal branches of government and Congress controlling the purse. I think it's a huge victory for the Supreme Court, who was looking increasingly like Trump's... you know, trolls... or not trolls, Trump's acolytes, right? This does look like the independence of the court. Six to three is pretty resounding. In a weird way, I thought this gave Trump an offramp from what was clearly a failed economic policy that I thought the economy and the stock market would actually probably go up. What was interesting is the reaction was muted. The market was slightly up, but now it's looking like he's going to use another provision, 122, which only lasts 150 days. But it's more inconsistency. And we've said this for a long time. More than the tariffs themselves, the most damaging thing to American trade policy is inconsistency. Nobody, no small business knows how to plan their business against what will be tariffs or not tariffs. What I've been tracking, I was working with a hedge fund trying to find tariff claims. So if you're Mercedes-Benz of the United States and you paid 20 million in tariffs, you could at one point potentially buy those claims for 10 cents on the dollar. Now, those have accelerated to 20 to 40 cents on the dollar, but the reason they're not trading at 60 or 80 cents on the dollar is the administration and complexity of potentially getting the money back. I think that's a red herring. I just don't...
I think if they collected this money easily, I don't see why they can't reimburse it easily. It was all done digitally. So I don't buy that argument. But it's more indecision. It's more sclerotic decision-making where people can't plan their business again. And what you see is just a continued reconfiguration of the global supply chain around the US where we have massively benefited. Over, you know, someone brought up the notion, the very simple notion, actually I think it was Justin Wolfers that said we have a trade deficit in the form of dollars, but we have a trade surplus in the form of stuff. So the example is I have a trade deficit with my barber, but my barber makes me look just [__] dreamy for very little money. So it's a good trade. And US trade policy, while we give more paper money to them, we get so much [__] because of the strength of the dollar, is an economic imbecile. Like he's just... he's seeing things like he learned economics in fourth grade and that's where he's stuck, right?
But if you export $100 worth of Nvidia chips to Germany in exchange for $100 of a Mercedes G-Wagon, they operate at 10 points operating margin and get seven times EBITDA. So they get $70. We operate... Nvidia operates at like 60 points operating margin and trades at 40. We get $2,400. I mean, if there's any asymmetry here of who has disproportionately benefited from global trade, it's been the US. We've been the big winner.
So this is stuck in Trump's brain forever because he's just not... honestly, he's not that smart, right? Like I know just in a very basic way he has this in his brain, and then he has these facilitators. And by the way, Scott Bessent knows better. Of course he knows exactly what you know. And I don't know what his game is. I mean, talk about tarnishing a reputation that he had that was pretty decent. But one of the things that's problematic is that he's operating sort of economics for dummies or something, because he sticks in his brain that this is the way things go. And I think most people don't think about it in a complex way. I think the two things that I think about again were these: that the Supreme Court did him a favor here, right? That got him... he got to try out his stupid ideas.
He seems to be doubling down.
He's doubling down in a really demented way, and the personal stuff that he was attacking them with. And you know, apparently...
Families should be ashamed.
Families and Barrett, Coney Barrett and Gorsuch, I think. Just really strange, just really, really strange. And they were all... they were saying was pointing out the obvious, which was this is something Congress should do, it's something Congress's job is to do. And he just doesn't feel any restraints on himself. And that's what it is. And it's like old man combined with someone who's already an egomaniac and a narcissist combined with more old man combined with he gets to do what he wants this term. And the victimization that he has is so massive, you know, that he's always being victimized. Someone's always [__] him. That's his whole worldview, that it's just... we're being governed by a guy who just again didn't... is a victim. Thinks he's a victim. Anyway, we'll see where it goes from here, very briefly.
Well, on Kalshi, they're saying it's a 76% chance the court orders a tariff refund before 2027. So it does feel like he's running out of options. This Section 122 has a maximum of 150 days. The Supreme Court does seem pretty resolute on this, 6-3. I don't think he's going to get a lot of support from even Republicans in Congress who are like, 'Oh, wait. We have meaning again. You mean we get to actually have input? You actually have to bring this to us.' And if he thinks these tariffs have merit and they're good for the economy, then take it to Congress and work out a deal with them. That's what they're there for.
He can't get it passed because he can't get it passed the way he wants.
Because he can't justify it intellectually or economically. Right. Well, this is the amount of money, the prosperity we have recognized from global trade. Now, granted, some of his instincts are correct. We had an asymmetric relationship. We were getting taken advantage of, in my view, in terms of our relationship with China. They steal our IP and then sell us stuff at 60 cents on the dollar. We are not good at looking after people who are on the wrong end of global trade. Right.
But he's never doing that. He just tells them he's here for them. But then he doesn't actually do anything for them.
And then if you want to look at the manufacturing sector that was supposed to be rejuvenated, that has not happened. What has happened is that the tourist industry, which employs 12 million people versus the manufacturing industry, which employs 11 million, is taking a real hit because Canadians are thinking, 'No, I'm not going to Disneyland or Las Vegas this year.' Did you see that story about that British woman who was put into ICE for 6 weeks for, you know...
Checking your... people have to turn over their phone and they're being asked for their password? It's like, [__] that. I'll go to Capri or I'll go to Buenos Aires, you know, I'll do something else. I would think this is a... I would think every tourism board in the world is like, 'Come here. We'll take your money.'
Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, get ready for Trump's State of the Union. Support for this show comes from DeleteMe. Whether you're a public figure or a private citizen, it's easier than ever for bad actors to get your personal information. I've tried DeleteMe a lot and I really have had a great time figuring out how much information data brokers have about me. It's scary and it's surprising and I am always disturbed by how much they bring together and how sometimes wrong it is. So it's really important to get your data in line with things. A dashboard on DeleteMe is very easy to use and you can tell them what you want deleted and what you want to keep an eye on. DeleteMe makes it easy, quick, and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. With DeleteMe, you can protect your personal privacy or the privacy of your business from doxing attacks before sensitive information can be exploited. The New York Times Wirecutter has named DeleteMe their top pick for data removal services compared to others out there. Take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for DeleteMe now at a special discount for our listeners. Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to joindeleteme.com/pivot and use the promo code pivot at checkout. The only way to get 20% off is to go to joindeleteme.com/pivot and enter the code pivot at checkout. That's joindeleteme.com/pivot, code pivot.
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Scott, we're back. As we record, we're one day away from Trump's State of the Union speech. This will appear on the day of it. He's walking in with a 60% disapproval rating. According to a new Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is urging Democrats to either attend in silent defiance or skip the speech. And a growing number of Democrats plan to attend a counter rally on the National Mall called the People's State of the Union. And Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger is delivering the official Democratic response. It's a good choice. What do you think of this?
I don't think he quite frankly... I'm wondering if that's... if and when we bomb Iran. I don't...
I don't think he has a lot to... I don't know.
Apparently he's going to talk about how manufacturing is coming back to the US like tomorrow. He's sort of like an Elon promise.
I think the screenshots here are going to be really hilarious. The audience reaction, even I think there's even going to be some Republicans who are kind of like, 'Oh yeah, I clap.' Yeah, that's not...
Yeah, that's not working here. I think it's going to be very interesting, but I feel as if he's, you know, they're like, 'Okay, how do we turn chicken [__] into chicken salad here?'
Yeah. They're going to... Vance apparently gave an interview where he's talking about how we're going to suddenly have factories everywhere. Like it's all made up. Literally, it feels like, you know, there was a really interesting meme online, Elon promising autonomy for like 10 years, like tomorrow, next week. They're going to try to say everything's great with the economy, which to me, when Biden did that, was so ineffective when people know that's not the case. I think these numbers are just astonishing that he keeps doubling down, right, on these... 60% disapproval is so high. I don't think you... I think it was this number right after the January 6th attack on the Capitol. I mean, I think that's where we are right now. And it'll be interesting. I think there's a high chance of crazy, like that he does something nuts.
Unchained, like he says something kooky or he loses his words.
I wouldn't get up there if I were him. You know, of course he's going to have pancake makeup caked on his hand. By the way, whoever is doing that, I can tell you there are Hollywood people that can make that hand look better. I keep looking at it. I'm like, what is his secretary doing it or, you know, with a bunch of like cheap makeup? It's really weird. I feel like they could do a better job.
It's the same person that came up with the tariff strategy.
Right. Exactly. It's Peter Navarro slabbering, you know, Mac.
My niece works at Sephora. This is how you do it.
But seriously, I think it is a good chance of crazy. Good can't... like a high chance of crazy, like something. Yeah, I wouldn't do it if I were him. I'd find some dumb excuse not to do it. But he's now a heat-seeking missile.
Have you noticed how much he's been like appearing, like he keeps appearing everywhere? I don't know. I just feel like it's bad. And speaking of which, I think it's... we'll see what happens. But at the very least, if he doesn't say something crazy, poop his pants or lose his words, and it'll be fine, I guess. And doesn't just lie too much. I don't know. What should the Democrats do? Just show up and say nothing, stare angrily?
I think you just sit there and kind of look like, 'Okay, are you [__] kidding me? This dude has lost his shit.' I don't know what they should do. I don't think they... you know, acquaint yourself like the elected leaders you are and just polite, you not go. The Supreme Court has to go, all of them, right? Don't you think? Don't you think all of them have to go?
Yeah. As do our elected representatives. I just hate the idea of whoever's president, half the house doesn't show up. I don't know.
I think there's a certain decorum. It's the State of the Union. Show up. You don't have to smile. You don't have to applaud. But yeah, I think you show up. And of course, they're aliens. Maybe that's what he's going to do. I don't know. Something. He's going to have to have any jazz hands and he shouldn't use his hands too much. Let's just say...
I'm just praying that the teleprompter goes down and he goes full apeshit crazy. I hope that it's...
I hope it's two gin and tonics for drunk uncle.
No, but he doesn't drink. Remember, he doesn't drink. Remember his brother died of alcoholism.
But other than that, Kara, how is his brother doing?
Dead. All right. That's like, do you ever run into a friend and you ask how their dad is and you didn't know? Like, 'Oh, my dad passed a year ago.' 'Oh, but wait, other than that, how's it going?'
That's always my response.
I totally do that. What are you supposed to say? People... what I find is people don't go, 'Oh, I'm sorry.' All right. It's like, well, dude, he died a year ago. I'm fine. I think you make a joke out of it.
Still okay. All right. Well, my mom's still living. Just remember that. So, all right.
Lucky. She's good. I got her a La-Z-Boy. I got her...
