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Jordi Hays
Co-founder & Co-host, TBPN

John Arnold Joins, 4 Tech Arguments (Number 3 Will Shock You)

📅 Sep 25, 2026 TBPN 132 MIN 8310 VIEWS 274 SEGMENTS · 6 SPEAKERS
00:00:54 4 Tech Arguments (Number 3 Will Shock You) 00:24:09 Has The AI Slop Gone Too Far? 00:38:53 Is AI Driving Interest Rates Higher? 00:50:26 WSJ Mansion Section 00:56:00 John Arnold discusses his career from natural gas trading at Enron to founding his own hedge fund and becoming co-founder and co-chair of Arnold Ventures. He shares insights on risk management, gambling-like financial products, AI infrastructure, energy markets, nuclear power, and the growing disconnect between private and public market valuations. 01:44:12 Viswa Colluru, founder and CEO of Invetta, discusses the company’...

What Jordi Hays said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Jordi Hays, co-host of TBPN, discussed Microsoft's new Autopilot agent, built on OpenClaw, and argued it will succeed due to distribution despite lacking insider excitement. He debated whether AI data center buildout is driving interest rates up, attributing the recent spike 80% to the Iran war. Hays interviewed John Arnold, who discussed his Enron experience, the dangers of gamified investing, and skepticism about AI's impact on rates. Hays also interviewed Viswa Colluru of Invea, who raised $311 million to discover new molecules, and Jake Adler of Pilgrim, who raised $25 million for biosecurity. Hays closed with Adam Korsunsky of FreeBean, which crossed 100,000 cans of ad-supported coffee distributed.

Key takeaways

  1. Hays attributes 80% of the recent interest rate spike to the Iran war, not AI buildout.
  2. Hays predicts Microsoft's Autopilot will be successful due to distribution, despite zero excitement from tech insiders.
  3. John Arnold said the 10-year yield at 5.20% has real interest rates at levels economists doubted they'd see again.
  4. Invea raised $311 million to discover new molecules, focusing on asthma and weight maintenance.
  5. Pilgrim raised $25 million to build America's first bio prime contractor, deploying the Argus detection system.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
80% of recent interest rate spike attributed to Iran war metric 47:51
$311 million Invea's most recent fundraising round commitment 1:49:16
$25 million Pilgrim's round to build bio prime contractor commitment 1:59:16
100,000 cans FreeBean's distribution milestone metric 2:09:00
70% of hyperscaler and Nvidia debt issuance as percentage of treasury issuance through 2026 metric 46:13
53% of 2021 multifamily apartment mortgages delinquent metric 52:03
$44 million listing price of Palo Alto home price 55:43
90 days until Christmas timeline 2:15:43

Chapters

  1. 0:00Microsoft Autopilot launch
  2. 20:34White House dinner guest list
  3. 52:03Real estate and LA mansion tax
  4. 1:00:39John Arnold interview
  5. 1:48:43Invea fundraising interview
  6. 1:58:43Pilgrim biosecurity interview
  7. 2:06:46FreeBean ad coffee interview

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 1:02:40Did 95% of the information flow mean that you got 0% of the profitability?
  2. 1:03:38It was viewed as, you know, an industry having some monopolistic characteristics and those characteristics were mostly around the pipelines, right?
  3. 1:16:45Or do you want to buy the index fund?
  4. 1:20:00Or you had something that was low friction like I could buy a lottery ticket at the supermarket when I'm, you know, buying my meat, but it's low speed of play, right?
  5. 1:22:52I have libertarian bones in my body. Right?
  6. 1:26:25Compute in five years is worth a lot less. Right?
  7. 1:33:58Yeah, and I think that's exactly it, right?
  8. 1:36:37It's kind of state by state, it's utility by utility, and they're investor-owned, and does the investor get the benefit of this?
  9. 1:44:55I've always been, you know, somewhat — the big question is that compute is not a commodity where one data center is providing the same product as another data center, right?
  10. 1:47:39But in terms of specifics, I think the next 10 years could be crazy, it could be a normal technology, right?
  11. 1:56:43Now, could a rogue agent be significantly more damaging?
  12. 2:00:13Yeah, there's certainly been a bit of an evolution, but I think the core ethos has remained the same, which is really this idea that we're just trying to deploy biotechnology more efficiently, right?
Jordi Hays 0:01 ↗
I see a large IPO on the horizon.
You're surrounded by journalists. Hold your position.
Overnight success.
3,000 double.
Right. That's misinformation.
Courtney, clearing order inbound. Let's just roll.
We are surrounded by journalists. Hold your position. Come on. Get up.
Trust the experts. Five. We are experts. Founder mode. Fine.
I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Stand by.
Yeah. King in the castle. King in the castle. Glaze. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Double glaze. Triple blades. Double kill.
Cook is welcome. Team Deathmatch. We are experts. Triple blades. That's just wrong. Right.
Mark, clearing order inbound. We are surrounded by journalists. Hold your position. Strike one. Strike two. Activate golden retrace.
Mark, clearing order inbound. Five put. I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Stand by. Just on Jordan. King in the castle. King in the castle.
You're watching. Today is Friday, September 25th, 2026. We are live from the TV Ultra Dome, the Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Let me tell you about Ramp. Time is money. Save both. You use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more. All in one place. Be the king in the castle with Ramp.com.
Uh, we got some debates on the timeline. I identified four debates for you. You don't want to call them debates, though. You want to call them arguments. Fights.
John Coogan 5:11 ↗
I thought arguments.
Jordi Hays 5:12 ↗
Okay. We're throwing down. We're throwing down.
John Coogan 5:14 ↗
Wouldn't someone rather listen to an argument than a debate?
Jordi Hays 5:17 ↗
Okay. I don't know. I don't want it to be a healthy, mature conversation. I want to be reaching over a debate fight.
Uh, first one, Microsoft. Is Microsoft about to have their Muse moment? They've launched Copilot. Now they're launching a new product today. Is it going to be a breakout success? Is it going to compete directly with Meta and Muse, or will it be a different thing entirely because it lives in the enterprise? It lives in the Microsoft ecosystem. Let's go to Tay Kim. He says, 'Shots fired. Microsoft will go after Meta's Muse.' From Alex Heath's interview of Satya Nadella. He's doing the rounds. He talked to Drabosa, talked to Alex Heath over on Sources.news. Still cooking. Quote from Satya Nadella, or from Alex Heath. He wants to bring autopilot AI chief of staff to your personal life, too. It's not staying in Excel. It's not staying in Outlook. It's going to be cooking dinner.
John Coogan 6:20 ↗
Big move going from a copilot to autopilot.
Jordi Hays 6:23 ↗
Autopilot. Yeah. This says a lot about their intentions with the product.
John Coogan 6:27 ↗
Yeah. Yeah. It is actually sort of like, you know, is this AGI, is this not AGI? Like if you're in the copilot mode, you're sort of signaling we're not really in the AGI era. Autopilot feels more like, although it's a term, it's a vague definition, it is significant in the brand term. So it's a hardened version of OpenClaw. The agent gets its own computer workspace and memory to work continuously. There is a very funny post from somebody in Meta who is like, you know, a lot of these agents, the value prop is that it has its own computer. It has its own virtual machine with some real hardware behind it. So you can have a file system, has I think eight gigs of storage, so you can say, oh, I need you to download some images, some files, like keep them in your cloud so you can access them at all times. It can obviously build a database, save records, your contact information, your calendar. It can mirror that. So it doesn't need to be pinging every service all the time, doing everything in the context window. In the Ben Thompson parlay, it can write things down. This is very good. This is what everyone was doing with OpenClaw on their Mac minis. This is what people are doing with Codex, Claude Code on their computers, and Codex, of course, has like cloud threads that do something similar. The funny thing is that Meta was like, it's a real computer. This is a real computer. And then they're literally using a virtual machine, which is still a real computer. Like you have access to hardware, but it is a virtual machine. Like when you're not using it, it goes dark and someone else uses it. And I think there's still some confusion because people were like, this isn't a computer at all, and it is.
Jordi Hays 8:06 ↗
Well, yeah, it sounds a little bit too good to be true that they're not just going to rack for you and just let you, if you sign up once and never use it, that's just inefficient compute resources. But it's just funny that we live in such a virtual time that someone can very seriously and basically correctly be like, it is real. It's a virtual machine. It can't get any more real than that. It's like, yeah, it could, but why would you? So no one cares. Anyway, Microsoft's doing the same thing. Virtual machine for everybody. It'll have its own computer workspace and memory to work continuously. When I ask about Microsoft's consumer strategy, he points to its 100 million plus consumer subscribers. People that subscribe to consumer Microsoft services, Call of Duty, Microsoft, Xbox Live. These are the consumers. Now, Xbox is still like pretty anti-AI. They've been signaling like, 'Hey, yeah, we're not going to lean in. We're not going to stuff Copilot all over Xbox Live.' I'm personally, I hate that because I think...
John Coogan 9:09 ↗
Yeah. I want a basically like a company-built aimbot.
Jordi Hays 9:14 ↗
No, I mean, yes, of course. That's funny. But no, what I want is I want to be able to text my Xbox and say, 'Hey, like Grand Theft Auto 6 is coming out. I want you to pre-order it. I want you to get it installed and I want you to open it up and do the little config because every time you open a game now, it's like downloading an update, accept the terms and conditions, accept the privacy policy, adjust the HDR, adjust where the HUD is on the screen. Do you want any accessibility features? Do you want to do the tutorial? It's gonna blow your mind, but if you press forward on the stick, you'll move forward. Lock in. We got to do this tutorial. Here's how to jump. It's going to blow your mind. It's the X button. Push it. Now, push it again. Okay, you ace the tutorial.' It's like I want to be able to jump into the game, and I do think an AI agent could help me with that. It can certainly do it on desktop. You can just say, 'Hey, go play the whole game for me. Level me up until I'm ready to really get in the fight because this is my first rodeo.' But Xbox has been pushing back on it. Microsoft broadly, they're going all in with autopilot. Autopilot should also go to the consumer side. He sees consumer agents potentially cutting out today's middlemen, making that market more zero-sum. In the enterprise, he thinks agents will make the market bigger than cloud by orders of magnitude. We got room to run. Satya said it himself. He's going to 300T, 300 trillion dollar company.
John Coogan 10:44 ↗
I like it. What do you think?
Jordi Hays 10:45 ↗
So, I mean, the first thought is that again everyone is building the exact same thing. So we went through this for the last few years where everyone had a chat app. Everyone's building that. Funny thing is the lore on GPT-4 that was first available in Bing. Like GPT-4, the thing that like GPT-3.5 powered the original ChatGPT, GPT-4 was only available through Bing. And then everyone was like, oh, I guess like Microsoft's going to make a play and Bing's going to be doing AI and like this is going to be a challenger to Google. And then they sort of like pulled back. But...
John Coogan 11:23 ↗
Well, and at that time when Microsoft was backing up the Brinks truck for OpenAI, they certainly... I don't think it was, it certainly was non-obvious at that time that they would be creating a company that they would ultimately compete with as much as they are, you know, partners. So...
Jordi Hays 11:42 ↗
Yeah. So Peter Steinberger, the founder of OpenClaw, chimed in. He said, 'Microsoft shipped a really compelling product on top of OpenClaw today. We worked with them since March to make the codebase ready for large-scale deployments.' And of course, there might be some IP sharing agreement, right? Because didn't... Oh, no. Because OpenAI hired Peter, but they didn't acquire OpenClaw. Open source.
John Coogan 12:04 ↗
Yeah. So anyone can build on top of it. Yeah. But what's odd is that I think Nat Friedman stated that they didn't fork OpenClaw. They built something from scratch, but there are just conventions. And so you wind up having similar MD files. It's just like, you know, if you build a web page, you're going to have a product. If you build an e-commerce site, you're going to have a product detail page. You might have a similar site map and architecture. It doesn't mean that you forked Shopify to do that or whatever.
Jordi Hays 12:32 ↗
Uh, let me actually tell you about Shopify right now since I mentioned it. Shopify is a commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. So the debate point is how big will this be? What is the actual impact to Microsoft? There is the cool macro tech story which is just that the models have advanced to a point where there is a new use case, like they're useful in a new way. Not just knowledge retrieval, not just go and write a bunch of code. They are useful, but that requires a new type of harness. Just like when the models got good at code, the harness became very important. We saw Claude Code and Codex and Cursor and a bunch of other companies. Cognition really defined that era. Now the models are pretty good with personal agent stuff, sending text messages, talking to people, integrating with Slack, etc. So the harness and the integrations and the partnerships matter. So we're talking about Microsoft partners with Amazon. Who's going to be Amazon's dance partner? Who's going to be Walmart's dance partner? Who's going to partner with Shopify? How big is the open ecosystem? You need a different harness. You need different integrations and you need a lot of new user education because I think there's a lot of people. I mean, there's people that are still online being like, these things hallucinate, like they have a knowledge cutoff, because they're talking to like the voice model.
John Coogan 14:05 ↗
Yeah. The main thing with this launch is that I don't think there's anyone on X that's seeing Microsoft launch an OpenClaw-powered agent and thinking, I got to use that. I'm so excited. I really want it. That's my view and I think it's correct and you're free to steelman it. That being said, they have such incredible distribution. They can still roll this out to a bunch of people who are going to try it and be like, 'Wow, that's really cool and useful and helpful,' and be the first way that they experience this new paradigm of agents, right? And so, as much as like I just think there's basically zero excitement from like the core insider agent maximalists, there's going to be just natural excitement from everyday Windows and Microsoft users.
Jordi Hays 14:50 ↗
Yeah. Yeah. It is uncommon in tech and maybe it's uncommon in X to like run your entire organization, your enterprise on Microsoft. The default tech stack for most startups is Google Enterprise, Gmail. You set up the Gmail account for your employees and then you add Slack. So then you're in the Salesforce ecosystem and Microsoft is there but usually with like one-off Excel licenses here and there for the finance team. Does that resonate with you in terms of like how these products fit together? There's usually some Microsoft, but you have to go to a financial company or like a real economy company to see like, okay, these guys are all in on Microsoft as a tech stack like Outlook down to, you know, the databases and like fully integrated Microsoft. But there are hundreds of millions of people who their life at work is just pure Microsoft and they're like, 'Yeah, I don't use Gmail at work. I don't use Google Calendar. I use Outlook.' And for those people, they're like, 'Okay, I get this thing like probably for free added to the subscription. Maybe we already have some Copilot stuff. So this just rolls in and I get, you know, near frontier capabilities, good enough.' And there's such an overhang in terms of what I can do that just going from, you know, zero to taking advantage of some decent automations is going to be potentially popular. It feels like it could be more successful than the old Copilot and a lot of that's driven just by capabilities. The models are better, the harnesses are better, the integrations are better and so you can do more things. I think there'll still be a lot of point solutions and a lot of competition. The big question is like when is Google going to fire back because are they going to wait until the next I/O? Like that's a long way away, but they do love releasing on, you know, those annual schedules. And so it's like we might get a Google, like a crazy Google OpenClaw agent, personal agent in mid-2027 and then Apple's close behind in like 2035, something like that, would they would launch something that was...
John Coogan 17:04 ↗
I mean, Google does have, there is Gemini Spark, which is like a 24/7 always-on agent, but like no one... does it have a real virtual machine? I mean, it says even if your phone and laptops are turned off, it'll still work. But I've seen like very little, like no one's really talking about this.
Jordi Hays 17:20 ↗
They aren't really pushing that because they are pushing Gemini as like the chat interface, but man, that thing falls short times.
John Coogan 17:28 ↗
It's so funny and frustrating that you have all these companies building personal agents, but none actually has 100% coverage over the services.
Jordi Hays 17:38 ↗
Oh, Monopoly guy over here. You're going to advocate for Monopoly.
John Coogan 17:41 ↗
Not advocating it, but it would be helpful right now because even Google, right, you know, everything around the full Google set of products would be absolutely amazing, but then you don't have like native iOS integration.
Jordi Hays 17:53 ↗
No, this is the irony of monopoly is that it's bad for, you know, pricing in some ways. It's great for user experience and it's often great for customers. Like how many times are you advertising on Facebook and you're like, oh, I wish like Ad Manager would just like also run Reddit ads and also run X ads and also do my YouTube ads, like just do it all. And the same thing is true even when you fire up like a Netflix app. You're like, 'Oh, is the movie I want on Prime or Apple TV or Netflix or Paramount Plus or HBO Max or Peacock?' Like there's 25 different things. And as a consumer, you're like, 'I'd love just one,' but then they would have pricing power over you. And so you got to look ahead and know that there'll be dragons if you allow the monopoly to flourish potentially. At the same time, we've been in this odd regime where the monopolies have not actually damaged consumers. Like this is how Amazon got out of antitrust again was like they didn't raise prices perniciously against their consumers. And so the current antitrust law is written such that you have to prove customer harm. It's not enough just to have concentration in a market. You also have to be extracting monopoly rents. You also have to be raising prices, increasing profits, and hurting the consumer financially. And so for something like Google has a search monopoly, it's still a free product. So it's very hard to prove consumer harm because you're just like, 'Yeah, G Suite, they are steadily hiking prices.' Okay. But there's viable alternatives. That's much more elastic for the technology suite. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see if there's like, you know, a niche community of like, yeah, I'm a Microsoft autopilot guy. I mean, the COD integration could change things. It just depends on how you're positioning it. Like if the brand, if you talk to somebody and they're like, oh, you know, are you a Claude guy? Are you a Codex guy, a Cursor guy? Like all those things say certain things about you aesthetically. You're Muse. Okay, we get it. You like the laboo guy. But if you come out and you're like, 'Yeah, I'm actually a Microsoft autopilot guy.' That could say two things. It could say Excel jockey, king of the financial markets, apex predator of the economy. Or it could say, you know, dropping a nuke on COD.
John Coogan 20:19 ↗
Prestige Max.
Jordi Hays 20:20 ↗
Prestige Max. What's the...
John Coogan 20:22 ↗
He has diamond camo.
Jordi Hays 20:24 ↗
Diamond camo. No, it's dark matter.
John Coogan 20:26 ↗
Dark matter. Yeah, that's when you get diamond though.
Jordi Hays 20:28 ↗
Yeah. So if it helps you grind to dark matter, I think they got a winning product there. Don't you think?
John Coogan 20:33 ↗
I agree.
Jordi Hays 20:34 ↗
Let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB. Don't just build AI. Own the data platform that powers it. Okay, we spent way too long on that. We got three more and our first guest is joining at noon. So we're going to still, we got to figure out a way to make the tensions go up and actually get an argument going here because that was...
John Coogan 20:54 ↗
We were fighting a little bit.
Jordi Hays 20:55 ↗
That was too friendly. That's too friendly. Okay. Well, you wanted to argue that all the tech insiders couldn't wait to get their hands on autopilot. That was your stance, right?
John Coogan 21:08 ↗
Yeah. Yeah. It's a tough one. Tough to steelman.
Jordi Hays 21:11 ↗
Anyway, Doge Designer shared a photo from a dinner that happened at the White House featuring important tech people and none other than Xi Jinping, the Chinese president. So Elon Musk, President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, China's first lady, AMD CEO Lisa Su, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, and Apple's Tim Cook got the prime seating right in front of Donald Trump. And they were at the prime table together. No translator that I can see in this image, although there is an empty chair, so it's possible that there was a translator at this. Empty chair would almost certainly be for Donald, right?
John Coogan 21:53 ↗
Oh, yeah. That would be... Yeah, that's right. Okay. So we're going to put the translator just between Xi and Melania.
Jordi Hays 22:00 ↗
Yeah, because Xi Jinping is, whenever he speaks, he gives his speeches even in America in Chinese. But he seems to be able to hang with Tim Cook, Elon, Lisa Su, Jensen. Although maybe those tech leaders at least know that one important phrase. If you want to really ingratiate yourself with a Chinese speaker, what do you say to them?
John Coogan 22:29 ↗
Right. That's what you got. Always worked for me.
Jordi Hays 22:33 ↗
If you're ever seated with Xi Jinping at a dinner at the White House, just throw that down and he'll be like, 'One of us. One of us. We know it's time to have a deal.'
John Coogan 22:41 ↗
Notable that Elon and Tim... Yeah. No plus one. They're locked in. No time for guests for them.
Jordi Hays 22:51 ↗
Yeah. No John Ternus. I feel like Tim Cook should get the John Ternus plus one. Elon should be able to bring like Nikita Bier along or something. That would be fun. But it was a pretty tight guest list. Although some people did get plus ones. Jensen brought his wife, Lisa Su brought her husband. What's interesting is that Dario wasn't there. He's sparred with the administration before. We've seen this. He's also attended plenty of meetings in DC. And Tom Brown, the co-founder of Anthropic, has been on a reset with the administration and even went as far to praise Trump's 'Let Data Reign' post on Truth Social. This was September 1st. He said to Howard Lutnick at the G20 Innovation Ministerial in Chapel Hill, quote, 'I really loved President Trump's post from earlier this week.' And so there's clearly olive branches going out, but they haven't been fully received because the dinner invite maybe didn't materialize or maybe he turned it down. We don't actually know. But he was offered 15 plus ones, maybe 10 plus ones, maybe five plus ones. He decided to lock in and grind for the ASI.
John Coogan 24:09 ↗
Well, you know who was there? Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange. Our friend holding it down.
Jordi Hays 24:18 ↗
Let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. There's Lynn. She's been on our show multiple times. Dear friend and also, you know, an important person to get around the table when the capital markets, when the future of the global economy is at stake. So very, very exciting to see her there as well as many other guests who made the list. The list is wild. Signal was really having some serious FOMO. This was hilarious.
John Coogan 24:49 ↗
Would have paid my entire net worth just to be a fly on the wall at this gathering. I can only imagine the conversations, the subtext and the tension in that room. Also, where are the venture capitalists?
Jordi Hays 25:01 ↗
It's such a good... Wait, also where are the venture capitalists? VC congratulating themselves. Won't someone please think of the venture capitalists? Yes.
John Coogan 25:11 ↗
Yeah, it really showed that there was levels.
Jordi Hays 25:13 ↗
There's levels. Is this a copy pasta of the like $15 million or Dinner with Drake meme?
John Coogan 25:22 ↗
Yeah, dinner with Jay-Z. 500K or dinner with Jay-Z.
Jordi Hays 25:25 ↗
500K or dinner with Jay-Z. Or the Grant Cardone like, 'Yeah, I slept in my car last night to come here' and then...
John Coogan 25:33 ↗
It is very funny because like there truly are levels. And if you as the humble poster, I obviously have a ton of respect for Signal, but if he or I were at this dinner, we would just be seated way in the back and we'd be like, 'Wow, look, it's Jensen. Wow, that's so cool. I wonder what he's talking about. Cool.' And then you get to go up to him for two seconds and be like, 'Dude, I love the GB.'
Jordi Hays 25:53 ↗
Well, to be clear, he didn't want to be... He didn't... Dude, that's so cool, John. He didn't want to be a guest. He wanted to be a literal fly on the wall.
John Coogan 25:59 ↗
That's true. That is different.
Jordi Hays 26:01 ↗
And you can see in that original image, hope there's no flies around here. We got some flies on the wall today. But yeah, it was a stacked, stacked list. There's a lot of folks. Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Anna Brockman, Sergey Brin, Satya Nadella, Sundar Pichai, Cristiano Amon from Qualcomm, our guest this week, made it to the dinner, came back from Hawaii, David Solomon from Goldman Sachs, tons of other folks. ExxonMobil, it was really a who's who of the global economy, son of Bernard Arnault, also Bernard Arnault is there.
John Coogan 26:42 ↗
A lot of people are saying Tai Lopez was snubbed. Yeah, I would have liked to see a Jocko Willink. I would have liked to see a Joe Rogan on this list. Sort of disappointing that they didn't include podcasters except for David Sacks. He did make it. And also...
Jordi Hays 26:57 ↗
Yeah, he's a podcaster and avenger. Secretary Kennedy also has a podcast. There's actually a fair amount of podcasters.
John Coogan 27:02 ↗
Brad Gerstner podcast.
Jordi Hays 27:03 ↗
Sam Altman ran the Y Combinator podcast years ago, Startup School. So, former podcaster. There's a few other people on here. But lock in, get your... I think if you put your entire net worth into potentially becoming the CEO of a really important company, maybe you do wind up as a fly on the wall. Never doubt yourself, Signal. I think you can make the next cut. I believe in you. I also believe in Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web app servers, databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. My take on this is that the question is like, should Dario have been invited? I think even though they're having beef with the administration, like it's such an important company, it's important that he's in the conversation. He also has like a very, very hard line on China and I would feel better about his positions on China if he's like, 'Yeah, Xi, I really do hate him' or something like that. I don't know. You know, it's informed from like a 30,000-foot view.
John Coogan 28:13 ↗
Yeah. Dario's like, he worked at Baidu.
Jordi Hays 28:16 ↗
Yeah. But since then his positioning has been like, we got to win the race against China. We have to, you know, dismantle authoritarian regimes, etc. Maybe he looks Xi Jinping in the eyes and gets the stare and it's like, oh wow, I had you all wrong. You never know.
John Coogan 28:31 ↗
Yeah.
Jordi Hays 28:31 ↗
But I want to see the sit-down happen. I want to hear the downstream. I want to be the fly on the wall. Anyway, let me tell you about Figma agents. Meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. Has the AI slop gone too far this time? That's our third debate. The third debate that will shock you. So we can pull up this Kalshi ad. It's their latest direct-to-consumer, direct response.
John Coogan 28:57 ↗
And for everyone at home, this is a karaoke moment. Yeah. You're sitting in the office, open floor plan. Don't be afraid to start singing.
Jordi Hays 29:05 ↗
Yeah. Add it to the Spotify playlist. So Brian Pompos says, 'This Kalshi ad is among the most dystopian ones I've seen from any betting app.' And you can sort of hear the AI song over the Pixar-inspired AI-generated video. The lyrics are also odd. Not to nitpick, but it says like he sends his girlfriend money and then he's handing her money. 'Every month I send her money for groceries.' So there's a lot of like, it lacks the polish that removes something from slop. Every once in a while you see a video that is AI-generated, but you're like, okay, there was enough attention to detail there. This was, let's just rip it. This is actually a popular format of AI slop that's been going very viral. Starts with a really dramatic hook. In this case, the man thinks his partner is having an affair, but actually she's just hedging food prices on Kalshi because she has inside knowledge on the market from working at a bakery in the morning.
John Coogan 30:11 ↗
Yeah. So that even though egg prices are going up, she's able to net out and remain even because she is profiting on trading the egg futures market on Kalshi. I don't know how deep the market is. I don't know how real those markets are. Do they really have egg futures markets on Kalshi now? That's kind of interesting. I don't know if you can actually hedge your groceries. I want to see a version of this ad from the Chicago Board of Trade where she goes a lot further. Gets a Bloomberg terminal, establishes a relationship with JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley. She's visiting the Chicago Board of Trade regularly, trading in size. She's talking to counterparties, Millennium, Citadel, you know, she's on the phone constantly moving huge volumes of commodity futures at scale. Kind of elevating herself past just the prediction market small ball and getting into the big leagues. That's the future.
Jordi Hays 31:07 ↗
Shane says, 'Would you rather your girlfriend insider trade egg futures or cheat on you?'
John Coogan 31:12 ↗
No. So this is not insider trading. Like, you can actually do this. You can be a baker and realize that prices are going up and trade the commodities markets. In fact, the commodities markets are designed specifically to give that signal and that is the purpose. The purpose is to understand, okay, the weather is bad, people can trade that. Fundamentally there's no law against insider trading in commodity markets effectively. But there's a question of like, is this a consumer-ready product? Like is this something that someone who maybe doesn't have, you know, a desk and a research team and a Bloomberg terminal... One interesting thing is I found egg prices up in September. The market right now, there's a 72% chance, but there's only $417 of volume.
Jordi Hays 32:08 ↗
Yeah, but if you're only buying $20 of eggs, that's enough depth. So it is a viable use case. It's not fraudulent. I think most people are responding to just like the sloppiness and like the clickbaitiness of like the weird hook. But somebody posted one of these that was done by a much less prestigious brand in I think like weight loss. It was some sort of weight loss pill, but it starts with like this insane hook about a secret relationship, very soap opera script. And I feel bad, but I actually watched the whole thing because I couldn't look away because it was really the Pandora's box. It was infinite jest for that three minutes. And all the comments were like, why did I watch this? And someone had put it on the timeline. I was like, 'This is the worst thing I've ever seen.'
John Coogan 32:58 ↗
Yeah. The funny thing about this ad is it seems like no one proofread it because there's a lot of elements of it that just are not even phrased properly.
Jordi Hays 33:08 ↗
Yeah.
John Coogan 33:09 ↗
But sometimes putting in those details gets people to talk about it, gets people to go in the comments, actually amplifies things, it draws your eye in. And so you never know with like the algorithmic ad generation where all this stuff goes.
Jordi Hays 33:23 ↗
What about the... The interesting thing is I think the consensus, and we're going to talk to John Arnold about sports betting and prediction markets at noon today. But there is another interesting side of this which is people seem to be coalescing, at least the vibes on the timeline are like this is not good. Like this is like either you should personally stay away from it. Like I don't advise you to be sports betting and I think that's John Arnold's position. There is a second debate point and question which is what about the dopamine sites? How do you feel about dopamine sites? Though in South Korea, the thing that I think is consumerism, but continue.
John Coogan 34:09 ↗
My current concern about the state of the hyper casino that our world has turned into is that like as an adult I feel like confident in my own decision-making ability and the ability to see ads for gambling all the time everywhere and still make the call that it's not for me, I'm not interested.
Jordi Hays 34:31 ↗
You've never lost a... I've tried one weekend. John got to witness me one weekend. I was like, 'Look, I think I should try this gambling thing. It seems super popular. I got to get to the bottom of it.' So I tried it. I'm running in the red.
John Coogan 34:52 ↗
And that being said, like, you know, you're stuck in your...
Jordi Hays 34:56 ↗
As a 30-year-old, I've been advertised gambling products for a decade now, right?
John Coogan 35:04 ↗
And my concern is that while adults have the ability to just make the decision like, 'Hey, this isn't for me.' And you have like more...
Jordi Hays 35:12 ↗
Yeah. You start young, you're more likely to stick with it for a long time.
John Coogan 35:15 ↗
Yeah. But young people today are growing up on the internet are going to go through this just like they will probably be served like a million gambling ads by the time they're 18.
Jordi Hays 35:26 ↗
It's a lot. Yeah. Yeah. And so I guess I didn't get served.
John Coogan 35:29 ↗
It's so normalized. It's so a part of society now. It's instantly accessible. If you're getting advertised stuff like this that's basically saying like, 'Hey, you're sending this message that like this is your way out, right? Like this is this.'
Jordi Hays 35:46 ↗
Yeah. The deep irony is like the way out is to not participate and be one of the people that makes it through without forming the addiction. Yeah. But maybe we need to run a slop ad about that. We want to do a slop ad like this where it's the same premise. 'Oh, I think my partner's having an affair' and lo and behold, they're just watching TBPN for three hours every day getting informed about technology and business news. What do you think about dopamine sites, though? Because dopamine sites, which is where... explain this.
John Coogan 36:17 ↗
Dopamine sites are fake shopping experiences. It's an e-commerce site where you can buy luxury goods, but you don't actually have to pay for them and they don't arrive. So this is from an article shared by Adonis on X. The final frontier of consumerism has arrived in South Korea. Quote, 'This week, I placed orders for a $44,860 Patek Philippe hand-engraved watch, a $12,500 Hermes bag, a $9,800 Tiffany diamond ring. Cha-ching. Oh, I didn't realize that was the analog one. That's great. And a $7,350 Cartier Love bracelet in yellow gold. I don't need any of them. I certainly can't afford them. Thankfully, they'll never arrive.' Instead of Amazon, this individual spent the past week browsing a new breed of website known as dopamine sites, a trend that emerged in South Korea. These websites like Dopamine Shop and Food Never Comes recreate the entire ritual of online shopping. You search for products, compare reviews, add items to your cart, enter a shipping address, place an order, and even track your delivery. But it's all imaginary.
Jordi Hays 37:30 ↗
Is this not as bad as sports betting? Is this not bad at all? What is this? It's sort of strange and sad and a reflection of our society that is so infatuated with pure consumption instead of creation.
John Coogan 37:50 ↗
Yeah.
Jordi Hays 37:50 ↗
And it's dystopian. But...
John Coogan 37:54 ↗
A dopamine site for TBPN merch.
Jordi Hays 37:57 ↗
You just create a carton.
John Coogan 37:59 ↗
Well, I was thinking you should make like a dopamine app where you log in. It looks like a Stripe dashboard and then you just see like, you know...
Jordi Hays 38:08 ↗
There's a game that I played that is basically that. It's like a cookie clicker game. What are those mindless games? I don't know.
John Coogan 38:15 ↗
Like Adventure Capitalist.
Jordi Hays 38:16 ↗
Yeah, I played Adventure Capitalist and you just like click a button and it's like open lemonade stand and then by the end you're like farming robots on the moon and you just watch the numbers go up.
John Coogan 38:25 ↗
Yeah, we made a game called Burn the Runway back in the day. I put it in the chat. You can pull it up.
Jordi Hays 38:32 ↗
It's still up. Wow. This is pre-vibe coding. You did it the old-fashioned way by hand.
John Coogan 38:38 ↗
It's crazy.
Jordi Hays 38:38 ↗
Do you think this counts as larping? Because it's actually live action, right? But it's like develop an encyclopedic knowledge of luxury goods if you spend enough time on here. I don't know. It seems like it's nowhere near as bad as something where real money's at stake because you are wasting time, but you're not wasting any money and there's no risk of downside. So why would you buy bananas?
John Coogan 38:59 ↗
Well, that's the cheapest item like if you need them for... But you can buy the max amount of bananas and then...
Jordi Hays 39:06 ↗
Oh, okay. Okay. So you buy different things for your startup and then you wind up running out of runway at the end.
John Coogan 39:10 ↗
Yeah.
Jordi Hays 39:11 ↗
Interesting. Wow.
John Coogan 39:14 ↗
To put this into perspective, there were no AI companies even on this list back then. It was...
Jordi Hays 39:21 ↗
WeWork. You had early Anthropic. Anthropic had only raised, I think, a couple hundred million at the time.
John Coogan 39:27 ↗
You had Quibi on there.
Jordi Hays 39:29 ↗
Okay. Okay. The whole... Well, it's not all bad in AI slop. There's a video that's shared by popular demand, his magnum opus.
John Coogan 39:41 ↗
No, it is all bad in AI slop.
Jordi Hays 39:43 ↗
You think this one's bad? Rewind. There's this guy, Henry says, 'I am so beyond obsessed with this account. For me, this is the moment that I am now very, very, very bullish on AI video.'
John Coogan 39:52 ↗
Okay.
Jordi Hays 39:52 ↗
There's an account called Jean Filenthro, who's like a French guy who's a boxer.
John Coogan 39:58 ↗
Yep. It is just somebody using basically making videos and then translating this guy with a funny haircut.
Jordi Hays 40:08 ↗
Yeah. He looks very silly and he got 230,000 followers on Instagram.
John Coogan 40:13 ↗
Yeah. Million, you know.
Jordi Hays 40:14 ↗
Oh, and he launched a coin.
John Coogan 40:15 ↗
Hundreds of millions of views. And so the new meta, I guess, is, you know, making an AI character.
Jordi Hays 40:21 ↗
Sure.
John Coogan 40:22 ↗
That's silly, strange. Run up the views. And then...
Jordi Hays 40:25 ↗
I think this was one of the top tokens a few days ago.
John Coogan 40:30 ↗
Yeah. Well, sounds like a mess.
Jordi Hays 40:32 ↗
Anyways, over to...
John Coogan 40:36 ↗
To what?
Jordi Hays 40:37 ↗
This is the video you were talking about.
John Coogan 40:39 ↗
Oh, yes. Yes. Yes. By popular demand, his magnum opus. He has repurposed the famous scene from American Psycho, the business card scene with pickles and new pickle. What do you think?
Jordi Hays 40:52 ↗
I can't really hear it. So we're doing our guest.
John Coogan 40:55 ↗
Very nice. Look at that. Picked them up from the deli yesterday. Good coloring. That's dill. And the brine is something called mustard seed. It's very cool, baby. But that's nothing.

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APA

Hays, J. (2026, September 25). John Arnold Joins, 4 Tech Arguments (Number 3 Will Shock You) [Interview transcript]. TBPN. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3002997/

MLA

Jordi Hays. "John Arnold Joins, 4 Tech Arguments (Number 3 Will Shock You)." TBPN, 25 Sep. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3002997/.

BibTeX
@misc{hays2026_3002997,
  author       = {Jordi Hays},
  title        = {John Arnold Joins, 4 Tech Arguments (Number 3 Will Shock You)},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, TBPN. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {sep},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3002997/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}