CEOInterviews.AI
Start App
Ed Elson
Co-host, Prof G Markets, Prof G Media

The AI Bulls Can't Answer This One Big Question

📅 Aug 10, 2026 Prof G Markets 69 MIN 202600 VIEWS 65 SEGMENTS · 5 SPEAKERS
Today on Prof G Markets, Scott Galloway and Ed Elson break down the bull and bear cases for the market at new record highs. They unpack how dependent the market has become on cash-burning companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, and therefore how fragile the AI trade is. Then they turn to SpaceX and check in on the stock following the company’s first earnings report and share lockup expiration date. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter: https://links.profgmedia.com/markets-... Order Notes On Being A Man now! https://amzn.to/4nl4VKo Timestamps: 00:00 Preview 00:34 Today's number 01:14 Tod...

What Ed Elson said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Ed Elson and Scott Galloway discuss the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally, arguing that the market is overvalued and fragile. Elson questions the ROI of AI, noting that OpenAI and Anthropic are unprofitable and that the data center buildout is unsustainable. Galloway agrees, citing that $2.5 trillion in incremental AI revenue is needed to justify current capex, while current AI revenue is only $150 billion. They criticize AI bulls like Gavin Baker for assuming free cash flow without evidence. The conversation shifts to SpaceX, where Galloway and Elson predict further stock declines due to excessive AI capex and valuation concerns. They also discuss the broader market's concentration in a few tech stocks and the risk of a correction, advising diversification and caution with leverage.

Key takeaways

  1. Galloway says $2.5 trillion in incremental AI revenue is needed to justify current hyperscaler capex, but current AI revenue is only $150 billion.
  2. Elson notes OpenAI made up 70% of Microsoft's AI sales last year, making the system reliant on unprofitable companies.
  3. Galloway predicts a dramatic market correction in the next 24 months and advises reducing leverage and diversifying.
  4. Elson and Galloway expect SpaceX stock to fall another 20-30% by year-end due to unsustainable AI capex.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
$2.5 trillion Incremental AI revenue needed to justify current hyperscaler capex metric 10:44
$150 billion Current cumulative AI revenue metric 10:44
70% Share of Microsoft's AI sales from OpenAI last year metric 14:00
$750 billion Big tech data center spending this year metric 14:00
$21 billion OpenAI's losses last year metric 26:08
$11 billion Estimated Anthropic losses last year metric 27:23
$36 billion Anthropic's debt raise from Blackstone commitment 27:23
92% Share of GDP growth from hyperscaler capex metric 18:03
52% SpaceX stock decline from all-time high metric 42:07
$18.5 billion SpaceX capex in the last quarter metric 54:20

Chapters

  1. 0:00AI market sustainability concerns
  2. 6:08Bull case for AI stocks
  3. 10:44Bear case and market fragility
  4. 26:08OpenAI and Anthropic profitability
  5. 35:58Market valuation and crazy town
  6. 42:07SpaceX post-IPO performance
  7. 52:04SpaceX AI capex and valuation
  8. 1:07:16Market predictions and advice

Questions asked in this interview

1
  1. 8:05But where are we in terms of the amount of people doing that?
Ed Elson 0:00 ↗
I don't see how this is sustainable at this point, and I want investors and the bulls to be answering that question. Frankly, I don't care how much the semiconductor stocks' earnings have gone up. I know they're going up. I know that they're selling chips to big tech, obviously, because the big tech companies are building the data centers. My question is, how long is this data center buildout going to last? And is it actually going to be sustainable? Because if you're relying on all of your AI business on one company, then what are we doing here? What happens if OpenAI implodes tomorrow?
Scott Galloway 0:34 ↗
Today's number, $250 million. That's how much Bank of America spends on GLP-1s for its employees per year. Ed, it's really strange. Why do you think I only get sick on weekdays?
Ed Elson 0:47 ↗
What's up?
Scott Galloway 0:48 ↗
Well, that was enthusiastic. Try again. Why, Scott?
Ed Elson 0:51 ↗
I was thinking. I was pondering the question.
Scott Galloway 0:54 ↗
You're a terrible straight man. This is why my comedy is not resonating. Let's start this again. Why do I only get sick during weekdays?
Ed Elson 1:02 ↗
This is unbelievable. I'm going to play this game. Why?
Scott Galloway 1:06 ↗
Because I have a weekend immune system.
How are you, Ed? You're at home.
Ed Elson 1:16 ↗
I'm at home. The studio is broken. There is no Wi-Fi working at the Vox Media Studio, which is kind of insane to me. So I'm recording from home. I kind of feel like it's COVID again, zooming into this, but that's okay.
Scott Galloway 1:30 ↗
So, Ed, I know you well enough, and also I have a very strong intuitive sense for young men. Something's on your mind. You're distracted this morning. Were you — are you upset about something? Is something on your mind? Are you overwhelmed with gratitude for this exceptional professional opportunity you have? Like, what is running through your head right now? What's up with that, Elson? You seem down or distracted.
Ed Elson 1:51 ↗
Uh, I'm distracted by a work-related event, but I shouldn't disclose it on this podcast right now, so I can talk to you about it otherwise.
Scott Galloway 2:00 ↗
Is it a bad thing or a good thing?
Ed Elson 2:02 ↗
No, it's kind of a bad thing. I mean, it's not a big deal. It's just one of the guys that we had on the show — we did a clip that used some of his data that didn't give him the attribution. When that's happened, and I've been on the other side of that, I'll hear someone literally parrot something I've said, and I think, 'Wow, wouldn't it be nice to just occasionally reference my work when you're literally parroting what I've said?' And the best response is — and I've gotten this response, and sometimes I haven't — and also I've been on the other side of that where people said, 'You cited my data. Please reference it.' I think the best response is, 'You're right. We have a lot of respect for your work. We do signal boost your work a lot, including having you on the show, which it sounds like we did, and I don't know who we're referring to, but we'll correct the record and be more careful moving forward. I hope you accept our apology and our commitment to doing better.'
Scott Galloway 2:53 ↗
That's exactly what I did. That's — I mean, yeah, exactly. See, I only get nervous if I actually think that I'm in the wrong. And in this case, I do think I'm in the wrong.
That's great self-realization. And just to go — I just interviewed a psychotherapist, so I think I know everything about psychotherapy right now. But the thing that hurts, where you get really upset or something online with your mental health, it's when there's a kernel of truth in it.
Ed Elson 3:23 ↗
Yes.
Scott Galloway 3:24 ↗
When it's like, 'Oh, I did fuck up.' Or — and this happens to me a lot because I say a lot of stupid shit — I go back and I get attacked and I think, okay, the stupid shit of jealousy or bots or weirdos, fine. It's when there's a kernel of truth and you're like, yeah, I did get that wrong.
Ed Elson 3:39 ↗
Exactly. So what do you do about that?
Scott Galloway 3:42 ↗
I think with actual people who take the time to reach out to you — and I did not have this self-awareness when I was your age. I used to rear up and get back in their face and think it was about winning the argument. And then what you realize as you get older is that it's not winning the argument. It's maintaining the relationship and saying, 'I understand why you're upset. I fucked up here.' And, you know, to be fair, we love your data and we do signal boost it a lot, which it sounds like we do here, but something fell through the cracks here. I apologize. I'm happy to correct the record. It's like relationships. When someone's upset — when I was your age in a relationship and someone would get upset with me, I had a tendency to try and get back in their face and prove them wrong. And then what you realize as you get older is if someone's upset and you value the relationship, just acknowledging that they're upset and that likely because you trust them and they're smart, there's a real reason why they're upset and a valid reason, and to move to a sincere apology and then move to what you're going to do to try and fix it in the future. I did not have that self-awareness when I was your age. But anyways, I'm going to charge you $300 and tell you that we have five minutes left and kick you out of my office now. I think that was a great session, Ed. I thought it was good. I think I learned a lot.
Ed Elson 5:03 ↗
Yeah, it's true. I mean, there's something about just the acknowledgement that is weirdly important that you don't really realize until later on. It's like it's not so much saying sorry — that is important to people — but voicing exactly what is bothering them and saying it out loud, like, 'I acknowledge that this is exactly what happened.' It's surprising how important that is in relationships and in conflicts. Like, you can't just be like, 'I'm sorry.' Like, it's kind of — no, you need to acknowledge fully.
Scott Galloway 5:40 ↗
Well, in trying to avoid the non-apology apology — 'I'm sorry if you're upset' — no, no, no.
Ed Elson 5:45 ↗
Yeah, exactly.
Scott Galloway 5:46 ↗
We were wrong. We fucked up. I apologize. And this is what we're going to do to make sure it doesn't happen again and try and correct the situation. And then if they don't accept that, call them a snowflake and a bitch and move on.
Should we get to today's news, Ed? Should we get to today's business news?
Ed Elson 6:08 ↗
Let's get into it. Last week, the S&P 500 hit fresh record highs twice. On Tuesday, the index climbed nearly 2% to its first record close since June, and the following day, it notched another intraday all-time high. The rally has led some investors to believe the worst of the AI-driven sell-off is behind us, but not everyone is convinced. Michael Burry recently warned that it is possible we are near a major top, adding that the market could be setting up for a quote '1987-type fall.' So Scott, what we wanted to do in this segment is sort of lay out the bull cases and the bear cases, because it seems that these two factions are extremely at odds with one another right now. We are hitting record highs, and yet at the same time there is a huge amount of anxiety about AI and about the sustainability of this business, about all of the debt, which we'll get into, and of course we cover a lot of it on our show. But I wanted to start with the bull case, and we've gathered a few clips here from some famous investing bulls that kind of lay out why the S&P hit a record last week and why investors feel optimistic about AI. So I'm going to start with a clip from Gavin Baker. He is the CIO of Atreides Management. This is Gavin Baker on why he's still optimistic about AI.
Gavin Baker 7:35 ↗
I look at what's happening in the stock market and I feel like a foolish optimist. And then when I talk to people, whether it's people at the labs, whether anyone in this ecosystem, like I'm bearish relative to essentially everyone.
Ed Elson 7:52 ↗
This is Alex Sacerdote, who's the head of Whale Rock Capital Management. This is on the same podcast, Invest Like the Best. And here he explains how adoption of AI is only at the beginning and therefore it's probably going to grow significantly more.

26 more exchanges in this transcript

Sign in free to read the rest of this interview. No card required.

Sign in to read the full transcript

Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Elson, E. (2026, August 10). The AI Bulls Can't Answer This One Big Question [Interview transcript]. Prof G Markets. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3003222/

MLA

Ed Elson. "The AI Bulls Can't Answer This One Big Question." Prof G Markets, 10 Aug. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3003222/.

BibTeX
@misc{elson2026_3003222,
  author       = {Ed Elson},
  title        = {The AI Bulls Can't Answer This One Big Question},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Prof G Markets. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {aug},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3003222/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}