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Scott Galloway
Founder; Host of The Prof G Pod; Co-host of Pivot and Prof G Markets, Prof G Media

Aswath Damodaran: Big Tech Has No Idea How AI Pays Off

📅 Aug 07, 2026 Prof G Markets 64 MIN 290805 VIEWS 102 SEGMENTS · 3 SPEAKERS
Today on Prof G Markets, Ed Elson and Scott Galloway are joined by Aswath Damodaran to break down the biggest takeaways from Big Tech earnings. He explains what the latest results reveal about the AI race, why he's becoming increasingly concerned about the Magnificent Seven's AI spending, and how he values the hyperscalers. They also discuss how much AI risk is already priced into the market and whether SpaceX's current valuation is justified. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter: https://links.profgmedia.com/markets-... Order Notes On Being A Man now! https://amzn.to/4nl4VKo Timesta...

What Scott Galloway said

Written from the verified transcript and checked against it. Every figure links to the moment it was said.

Aswath Damodaran said big tech's Q2 revenue growth was strong, but the companies are becoming capital-intensive manufacturers and must now prove returns exceed their cost of capital. He argued none of the hyperscalers have articulated a clear AI business model, and markets are filling the vacuum with skepticism. He said Apple's cautious strategy is a bet to wait out uncertainty, though it is still dragged in by rising chip costs. Damodaran called the reliance on OpenAI and Anthropic for AI revenue a big problem, as most is intracompany, not end-user revenue. He said China is ahead in targeting the low-margin, high-scale AI market, and that unit economics are struggling. He is uneasy about overinvestment, sees no single correction catalyst, and said he can live with current valuations because debt is manageable, though lesser AI companies face catastrophic risk.

Key takeaways

  1. Most AI revenue at big tech is intracompany, not from end users, which Damodaran called a big problem.
  2. China is ahead in targeting the low-margin, high-scale AI market, potentially engaging in AI dumping.
  3. Damodaran can live with current big tech valuations because net debt is manageable, but lesser AI companies face catastrophic risk.
  4. He plans to value OpenAI and Anthropic ahead of their IPOs, telling full stories even with limited data.

Numbers and commitments

FigureWhat it refers toTypeAt
70, 80, 90% returns on invested capital for big tech five years ago metric 8:07
73% share of Amazon's AI revenue from OpenAI and Anthropic per Barclays metric 17:43
74% share of Microsoft's AI revenue from OpenAI and Anthropic per Wells Fargo metric 17:43
85% share of Amazon's net income from unrealized gains in Anthropic and OpenAI metric 28:13
87% share of Google's net income from unrealized gains in SpaceX and Anthropic metric 28:13
below 20 times earnings P/E multiples for big tech after AI startup gains inflated earnings metric 28:13
420 billion Meta's off-book debt metric 51:50
140 billion Meta's on-book debt metric 51:50
8% to above 50% share of tokens consumed from Chinese LLMs from January 2025 to now metric 38:32

Chapters

  1. 0:00Big tech Q2 earnings reaction
  2. 7:53Shift to capital-intensive business models
  3. 10:19Capex and lack of business model clarity
  4. 12:31Apple's cautious AI strategy
  5. 16:23Transparency and AI division separation
  6. 18:48Intracompany revenue and end-user demand
  7. 29:31Valuation with cross-holdings
  8. 38:32China's AI dumping threat
  9. 44:03Unit economics and AI market bifurcation
  10. 47:22Valuations, debt, and correction catalysts

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 0:00It's scary for markets, but you know what?
  2. 8:07Questions are: are you earning more than your cost of capital?
  3. 10:19... component of you're smart and perhaps you're too immersed in this space to step back and ask the objective question of: is there really a business here that can justify not a billion, five billion in capex, but tens of billions of capex?
  4. 18:48... building or not, other than through anecdotal evidence, which is the worst kind of evidence we can get—of somebody saying, 'I use Claude and I save $300 million.' Hey, that's great, but what does it tell me about collective revenues?
  5. 23:47That's the other side of this, right?
  6. 30:54What if you're making a huge interest income from cash and you're including it, and that's part of your denominator?
  7. 32:52What's the motive? Why are you doing it?
  8. 40:34Now, one of the most revealing components of the Anthropic success story was how much it costs Anthropic to deliver the products and services that they charge $6,000 an hour for. Right?
  9. 44:23You still have to build — I mean, the physical infrastructure seems so expensive unless you can figure out a way to build data centers at one-tenth the cost, right?
  10. 45:53And my question is, why do you need any of this AI?
  11. 47:48You take the Meta example, right?
  12. 56:47But I'll always tell a full story, and people will take issue with me saying, 'Your story is wrong.' And I say, 'Absolutely, I know it's wrong, but what's the counter?
Aswath Damodaran 0:00 ↗
As an investor in these companies, my concern is not that they're spending money. I think they can afford to spend the money. I can see that they're going for growth, but none of these companies has enunciated what exactly the business model it is that they hope to deliver. And maybe they don't know, but then they need to be open about the fact that they're trying stuff out just as much as the rest of us. It's scary for markets, but you know what? If you don't say something, markets fill in the vacuum.
Scott Galloway 0:32 ↗
Today's number 48. That's the percentage of US adults who now support the idea of banning phones for the full school day. Ed, why did the smartphone need glasses?
Ed Elson 0:42 ↗
Why? Because it lost all its contacts.
Scott Galloway 0:49 ↗
How are you, Ed?
Ed Elson 0:50 ↗
I'm doing well. I got to tell you, I'm excited for vacation, which is happening for me in about two weeks.
Scott Galloway 0:55 ↗
Where are you headed? Oh, wait. We talked about where you're going somewhere fabulous.
Ed Elson 0:59 ↗
I'm going to Austria. I'm going to a wedding in Germany and then I'm going to drive to Kitzbühel in Austria.
Scott Galloway 1:04 ↗
Oh, Kitzbühel. I've been to Kitzbühel. It's great. Quite frankly, it's great for kids.
Ed Elson 1:07 ↗
I'm very excited. It'll be very nice. We'll go hiking. We'll play sports. We'll do saunas and swim. It'll be a very health-oriented vacation, which is exactly what I want right now.
Scott Galloway 1:24 ↗
It's a wedding, you said?
Ed Elson 1:26 ↗
Yeah, I have a wedding first and then I've attached sort of bolted on a vacation next to it. So I'm pretty proud of how I've kind of maneuvered this because we have the wedding in Bavaria which will be awesome and then rent the car, drive about two hours into Austria and then spend the week at a hotel. So I'm very excited about this one.
Scott Galloway 1:49 ↗
That is exciting. You know what Austria's greatest achievement is?
Ed Elson 1:52 ↗
What's that?
Scott Galloway 1:54 ↗
Convincing everyone Hitler was German.
Ed Elson 1:56 ↗
He's back. I was waiting for Hitler back.
Scott Galloway 1:59 ↗
I knew it had something to do with Hitler. That's actually a good point. Yeah, that's true. They did convince him he's an Austrian.
Ed Elson 2:05 ↗
Yeah, everyone said that everybody's a German. Nope. Austrian.
Scott Galloway 2:10 ↗
Nope. Do you have vacation plans?
Ed Elson 2:12 ↗
The better question is, do I have work plans? I'm on vacation most of the time, as your team knows.
Scott Galloway 2:16 ↗
Yeah, I'm here in Colorado and I had to—
Ed Elson 2:19 ↗
Oh, you're on vacation.
Scott Galloway 2:20 ↗
Well, on vacation. I'm up at 7:30 doing these Joey Bagodona podcasts with you, but I'm technically— I mean, my kids are out causing trouble and bored and doing hikes and like that. And we saw a bear last night actually in town, which was kind of fun.
Ed Elson 2:38 ↗
Brown bear?
Scott Galloway 2:39 ↗
Yeah, a little brown bear. My son said, 'Should we run?' I'm like, 'No, you stay here. I'm going to run.'
Ed Elson 2:45 ↗
Those are very, very dangerous animals. I saw one of those TikToks about what animal kills the most people, and everyone's so freaked out about sharks. Moose kill more people than sharks.
Scott Galloway 2:56 ↗
Yeah, moose. I've heard that moose can be quite aggressive.
Ed Elson 3:00 ↗
Yeah. And hippopotami and crocodiles. Snakes kill a ton of people. I think mostly in India. But—
Scott Galloway 3:07 ↗
This is what you've been doing on your vacation.
Ed Elson 3:09 ↗
Well, of course you know the animal that kills the most people, right?
Scott Galloway 3:12 ↗
Um, no, I don't. What is that?
Ed Elson 3:14 ↗
The amateur answer is the mosquito. But the animal that kills the most humans is other humans. So it's true. We're the problem. We're the problem.
Scott Galloway 3:25 ↗
The amateur answer is the mosquito. How many times have you had this conversation?
Ed Elson 3:31 ↗
I think it's fascinating. Have you been through this? It's really interesting what animals are dangerous and which ones aren't.
Scott Galloway 3:37 ↗
Should we turn this into an animals podcast? Maybe that's what this should be.
Ed Elson 3:40 ↗
Oh, I would love to bring on— I like that guy, the dog with the Oscar guy who goes into homes and then establishes his dominance over the Chihuahua that thinks it's a—
Scott Galloway 3:50 ↗
Yes. Cesar Millan. Is that who you're talking about?
Ed Elson 3:53 ↗
Yeah. Yeah, he was really good.
Scott Galloway 3:54 ↗
Yeah. No, he's great.
Ed Elson 3:55 ↗
Despite the fact you hate dogs.
Scott Galloway 3:59 ↗
That's the underrated side about me. I do prefer cats.
Ed Elson 4:02 ↗
That's not going to help our downloads.
Scott Galloway 4:05 ↗
You had a dog, but not a cat growing up, right?
Ed Elson 4:07 ↗
I did have a dog. And as everyone knows, he was okay. He was an average dog at best.
Scott Galloway 4:15 ↗
I think it's more the owner that was the problem here.
Ed Elson 4:18 ↗
That's fair enough. I think that's probably true.
Scott Galloway 4:21 ↗
All right. Well, we've got a very exciting interview to get into here. We recorded this conversation live on Substack earlier this week. And if you'd like to catch the next live stream, we'll be doing plenty more. Then you should head over to profgmedia.com and subscribe to ProfG Plus. Without further ado, let's get into it. Today, we are joined by the one and only Dean of Valuation, Professor Aswath Damodaran, for our quarterly review. We will break down the latest earnings from big tech. We'll get his take on SpaceX after its blockbuster IPO, and we'll discuss whether we should be worried about the growing debt behind the AI buildout, among plenty of other topics. So, let's get into it. Professor Damodaran, thank you so much for joining us. I'm going to launch us right into it. I want to start with big tech earnings. It seemed pretty good across the board. Microsoft revenue up nearly 20%, Amazon revenue up 20%, Meta revenue up nearly 30%. The response was kind of mixed. I have some underlying questions about these earnings, but I'd love to just start with your reactions to what we saw in Q2 from big tech.

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Cite this transcript

APA, MLA, BibTeX
APA

Galloway, S. (2026, August 7). Aswath Damodaran: Big Tech Has No Idea How AI Pays Off [Interview transcript]. Prof G Markets. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3003253/

MLA

Scott Galloway. "Aswath Damodaran: Big Tech Has No Idea How AI Pays Off." Prof G Markets, 7 Aug. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3003253/.

BibTeX
@misc{galloway2026_3003253,
  author       = {Scott Galloway},
  title        = {Aswath Damodaran: Big Tech Has No Idea How AI Pays Off},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Prof G Markets. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {aug},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3003253/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}