Walt, another week and no surprise, Uber's keeping the printing press hot. While Uber's keeping the printing press hot, Waymo's back, joining the action, making news. Across the pond in Europe, there's debate about what classifies a robotaxi deployment on the European continent. Down in Austin, Elon and company released Tesla 14.3, but I got to ask you, the city of brotherly love, they're throwing robots in the water. What's going on? I thought it was the city of brotherly love, not the city of raging against the robots. Can a robot climb a greased telephone or excuse me, a light pole?
Because that's, you know, when the Eagles win the Super Bowl, two in recent years, Grayson, um, they had to grease the light poles for people climbing. So, it doesn't surprise me that maybe some, maybe rides that were bumping into people or maybe not bumping into people might have been, have something happen to them, but let's hope that doesn't continue because we obviously want the robots and the autonomy cars to continue to proliferate. But yeah, Philly, you know, you talk about Grayson, you're always talking about like, what are the weather conditions? Like, can Waymo, you know, work in the snow or this that and the other thing? Can a, can an autonomous vehicle survive the streets of Philadelphia? Well, we saw what happened with the little sidewalk bots and soon we're going to find out when Waymo deploys in Philadelphia. So, give me an over under. How's that going to go?
Well, we'll get to New York later, but it, you might have some similar, similar situations there. Why don't we go to our first topic, which is our good friends at Uber, um, and what is it? How do you pronounce this? MOIA, M-O-I-A, whatever it is, what it's a, it's Volkswagen. It's Mobileye. It's the ID Buzz. And I guess we've got some on-road validation testing in Los Angeles. Not an easy market to drive around, but obviously great need for, uh, for driving there. What, what is, what, what do you make of this latest development? Because you know, the Mobilize one we've kind of haven't said much about. It seems like more of a ADAS type system and, and, uh, where that's the target. So, what does this mean for, for Mobileye and, and VW?
To me, I'm going right back to where I always go at asking questions. The last couple of times that you and I were in Austin, not this time, but the, the times before, we saw the ID Buzz vans driving around Austin, safety drivers, safety engineers. The question that I have on this deployment that it, the validation beginning in Los Angeles, are these the vehicles that were in Austin? Were they shipped to LA? Because there's going to be 100 vehicles and then will Austin become a, another market? So, I know I'm putting on the honorary inspector hat here, but I'm really curious of how this is going to roll out since they were testing in Austin for a very long time, very publicly. Maybe we should have some more LA listeners try and spot them on the road. Look for these ID Buzzes. Look for the license plates because I'm not sure that, that you would see a license plate switch there. You look for a Texas license plate on those cars.
If we see a Texas license plate, that's a really good sign. I mean, there is precedent in the market when Tesla deploys the, the Model Ys for robotaxi validation. You look very closely, they do have Texas plates. So, something we're going to be able to watch. And I also want to see in the validation area in Los Angeles, where, where is VW Moia Uber going to test? I was the co-chair of the technical task force City Beverly Hills, so I know the city Beverly Hills very, very well. And lo and behold, when they announced this, not this time, the original announcement, they did a Photoshop version of a VW Moia bus in Beverly Hills. So, hopefully they test there in Beverly Hills, too, my old hometown. But I'd be really curious to see, will they go all the way from downtown? Will they go to Beverly Hills? Will they go to Brentwood? Will they go to the ocean? And perhaps they'll take a detour and go north of Malibu. So, we really need to watch where these vehicles start to get spotted.
Yeah, and, and I think on the Uber angle side of this, um, you know, this is a launch or this is expected to be a launch with public rides for 2026. And to define what launch means, that does mean a safety driver. So, you know, no different than the, you know, the quote-unquote launch of AV ride in Dallas. Um, you know, where we had some issues with some ducks, I guess, this past week. Um, but you know, this is, this is a good step. And we, we love to get these milestones, but what you really want to see is one of these, um, AV partners that, that Uber has, you know, progressing to the next step. Because then they're the only one, only partner that they have so far that has actually taken the, the driver out other than Waymo, um, which we've talked about before, is WeRide. Right? Everyone else is, is still in this phase of, of a safety driver behind the wheel. Well, we can't forget about Zoox. That was a recently announced partnership, but they're operating their prototype in Vegas, limited circumstances.
Not paying for a ride there, Grayson. Not paying for a ride. There's no paid rides on Zoox. That is a very, very valid point there. There, there's a lot of details, and that's why I love this show what we do, because we dive into the details. And for the audience in Los Angeles, if you happen to see a, please post it on X. If you see a VW ID.Buzz testing above Sunset going through Benedict Canyon, going through Laurel Canyon into the valley, that would be a really interesting tell sign. And, and, and diving into this press release, and you know me well, I tend to read a lot of the small print. In the official Uber press release, not one mention of Mobileye, who is very publicly the self-driving partner. I thought that was interesting.
I don't even understand what that would mean. Uh, I just, I, I assume that, you know, there's no chance VW just like swaps anything out there, is there? I mean, this is, this is Mobileye, right? So, this is theoretically a positive for, for that company.
Theoretically it is, but we do not have any concrete data. We do not have official press announcement from Mobileye about this. We do not have something for us to look at. It's, it's merely what, what's going on. Now, that's, that's how I'll summarize it.
Yeah, I don't, I, I've no idea. Maybe given all their, their, you know, buddy-buddy relationship with Nvidia, um, it doesn't look great to have something come out that quickly with Mobileye, but I mean, who knows? Like, Uber's got so many different relationships. They tend to be a little squirrely on the dollar amounts that they're in and who's in this or who's in that. But, look, they're spreading their bets all over the place, as well they should, um, to make sure autonomy. So, you know, we want this to succeed. And, and for anyone that's, um, on our podcast listener that is from VW or Mobileye and wants to put us in one of those cars, I've said this before, but I will say it every episode because I'm sure that maybe not everyone reads, listens to every one of our episodes. I will fly out to LA tomorrow to get into one of those ID Buzzes and do a test drive, even with the safety driver there. So, you let me know. I'll hop on that plane. I love LA. There's lots of stuff to do out there. Um, you know, let, and, and I'd love to test it because that is one, one of the few cars that I have not yet been in. Have you been in any of those, Grayson?
I have not. I have not been in an ID Buzz. I will publicly disclose to you and to the audience I have asked VW for over 2 and 1/2 years now to get in. No. And so, this is Walt's very public thing ask, and I will follow on Walt's ask, and I will go to LA with him to ride in an ID Buzz. So, dear VW, if you want us to talk about it, please put us in the ID Buzz.
Now, hold on for a second. Let me, let me correct you there. We're going to talk about it anyway. So, whether you want, whether you want us to have a real-life experience or not is yours, but, you know, whatever with the uncertainty of not trying it, we can only assume certain things. And, you know, we'll verbalize this. Should we move on to the next topic?
We can only assume things, but what we can assume is if you put us in the buzz, perhaps it will get a little more buzz.
That is definitely for sure, for sure true. Uh, let's go. Well, you know, look, at the end of the day they said end of 2026 they'll, they'll have rides. So, once you open up the rides, you can't, I guess you could stop us. I mean, there were times in the, I know there's things in the earlier days of ride share with that they did with identifying certain riders. Uh, let's assume that they wouldn't necessarily block us. I, we were able to get obviously into the AV rides in, in Dallas. Um, so, you know, we'll, we'll get to you one, we'll get to you one of these days and we will come back with our honest opinions as we will do later in this podcast on some of the new software that came out of Tesla. Can we move on to the next topic now?
Yes, and we don't have to queue up why can't we be friends. Let's go to Europe. So, the first Euro robotaxi, I mean, that is, um, that's kind of a milestone, right? And who is it? It's, um, Vern who launched paid fully autonomous rides in Zagreb on April 8th. This is powered by Pony.ai. Um, it's the first commercial, meaning you're paying for the ride, robotaxi service. Um, it's, those rides will also soon be available on the Uber app. Um, because they, I guess I don't know how long ago it was, very recently announced, uh, this relationship, um, Uber did with Vern and Pony.ai. Um, it does, this one have a safety driver or not, Grayson?
It does have a safety driver and it's a, I'll say a complicated relationship which I've documented in the This Week in the Autonomy Economy newsletter. And how, how this unfolds, I'm going to reserve judgment until we get a public statement from the EU regarding the entire operation. So, here in, in United States, man, we got all kinds of technology and launches with paid rides. In Europe, this is like their milestone to get their first one that's paid, but they're still a safety driver there. So, again, congrats. You know, and look, the technology partner here, we care most about the technology level layer here on Autonomy Markets. Obviously, Uber's important and Vern's important and the OEMs and all these people, but the technology level is what we care about the most. Uh, hey, Pony, uh, WeRide already driver out with Uber. So, you might want to, you know, try and move on along with that development to keep up with your, with your peer in China.
Yeah, I mean, WeRide is making strides. There's, there's no denying that. If you look at company making strides and the, the clear leader, despite the bows and arrows you can everybody send them now, because I'm ready for them, is Waymo. They're the only company in the world operating at the scale they are with drum roll, please, no safety driver. The no safety driver is the global benchmark.
There it is. Okay, so, that's fine, but Vern and Pony and Uber beat them. In terms of paid ride, but you're right, they can leapfrog on by being the first to launch in Europe, let's say, uh, with driver out. Um, and look, maybe WeRide will be next. Like, I think WeRide would, you know, Germany would be a good market for them to go and do their own paid rides with, with, uh, you know, with obviously initially with, uh, you know, with someone behind the wheel as they kind of test those markets. What's the one name that I haven't mentioned, Grayson, that's actually located in Europe that doesn't even seem to be a part of this conversation that we're having on who's next and who has commercial rides in Europe?
Well, there's a thing called Brexit, Walt. So, the, the EU and the UK are no longer together. Sorry.
Oh, man. Yes, I'm an idiot. Yes, that is true. It doesn't count as Europe. Okay, what technology provider who you might think could get into Europe, um, is not there. It's Wave. Is Wave the answer? Wave is the answer. Where is Wave, uh, in their level four progress even with a safety driver in taking commercial rides. When should we expect Wave to be in a market, Grayson?
Europe, do not know. Based on statements from Uber and from Wave, it looks to be Q4 2026 in London, which is the UK, not Europe. Getting into Europe require a TÜV SÜD certification and there is a, a laundry list of regulations that you have to go through, that companies have to be prepared for. I don't mean to jump over here, but I do have to say this thing is that in my opinion it's very important. One of the biggest beneficiaries of the European Union regulatory environment for the deployment of autonomous vehicles could be Lyft. Their acquisition of FREE NOW and their, and their deployment of, uh, Flexdrive to the EU could actually serve as a massive competitive advantage for Lyft in that market.
I like the way you think. It's like a Trojan horse. You're using these service functions to help you in, in, in your progress. Anything it takes. Like when you talk to a lot of these companies in terms of what they think their limitations are, it's less about maybe cars initially and just some of the regulatory things that still exist in all these markets around the world. So, I have this note here on getting back to, to, you know, Pony and Vern and Uber, um, that there's, they're already in permit discussions with 11 additional EU. They put UK in there as well. So, let's kind of roll them in there. I wish I could say it's like attached. Remember that was it Goldie Hawn or something like that? It's kind of, don't know if, it's like you, doesn't count. But I traveled there. Um, it's not attached. Um, who has these permit discussions? Like, who is, who is doing the lead there? Is it Vern? Is it Pony? Like, where, where are these, how do the permit discussions work as far as you know?
So, on the, on the Vern stuff, I will give you data from this. I'm citing the state to the EU transparency registry, which is public data that any, anybody can go through to look at it. Vern has been leading the negotiations with the European Union because they, the company took a COVID stimulus to build out the Vern program. Whether they got an extension for a milestone, I'm not going to comment on because again, we do not have a statement. But every dialogue between Vern and the EU as it relates to deploying robotaxis, building software, and building in the EU, all the documentation has been Vern leading those discussions. However, that could have changed when Uber entered the picture. I do not know, but all the available data that we have is says that it was Vern.
Well, that's a good heads-up. Let's head back to the US. Let's go from the, the nice streets of Europe to Nashville, Tennessee, the musical, the, I want to almost say the music capital, right? Because I think maybe Austin, because it's, since there's so much more autonomy going on in Austin, I think that will take the, to take the, take the, the, um, the leadership on music capital. But in Nashville, Waymo opened a 60-mi, 60-sq mi service. But this is the market that they're partnered with Lyft, but this initial launch doesn't include Lyft. Um, it's just the Waymo one. And why is that? The, the reason is Flexdrive, which Grayson was just talking about, this service component, which as a reminder was more like a rental car thing, like you bring your car back once a week, and then that's how you're servicing. So, changing that to being like a daily thing is a whole, that's a different thing. And then they're building this as I, I believe from the ground up. There wasn't like an existing Flexdrive there. Flexdrive ground-up building. And I think they were just like, you know, whatever, starting to shovel dig whatever a couple weeks ago. So like we're not going to see Lyft, I don't believe, in this market until the fourth quarter at the earliest. It is, I think, a pretty critical part of the Lyft autonomy story to get this going. It's Waymo, it's Waymo, right? You, you know, you're, you're, you're getting Waymo cars on there. You're, you're, you know, proving out Flex Drive. We will go there as soon as this thing is live and see, you know, how much better it is than the handful of depots that only you and I have visited. So we have this, you know, for, from a visible comparison standpoint to see how much more efficient it is because this is what Lyft pitches to investors on what, you know, the differentiation will be in terms of how Flex Drive operates so much more efficiently. So, you know, great for Waymo, another market, right? It's almost like old hat to these guys. Like, you know, just cranking out markets, cranking out cars. Early signal for, for Lyft, but not, not the best signal for Lyft because it's not, it's not, they're not live yet. You know, and like I, I, I, if I was Lyft, I don't know what, I understand why they're not putting... Huh, I shouldn't criticize. Like it takes time to build these things. We've seen how these, these, the time it takes for these things go up. But, you know, Grayson, we've seen some quick ones get slapped together from Waymo in terms of these service depots. Have we not?
We have. I am under the assumption, based on this tweet I'm going to read you from David Risher, the CEO of Lyft. When Mr. Risher said, "Lyft's Flex Drive cars is already on the ground in Nashville prepping to manage Waymo's fleet as they scale. Charging, cleaning, maintenance, and more. The infrastructure required is amazing. More on that soon." So, based on, on that statement on X, it appears that the depot is not built. So I am under the assumption that Waymo, very similar to what we discovered in Dallas, is operating out of a temporary depot. So I say, "Okay, why?" So then I start going in my wonky head thinking of things. Is it, is it permanent? Is it energy? What was it acquiring the real estate and why was this not planned 18 months before? Or... So, I think about that. Then I say, well, wait a second. Maybe the Lyft Waymo deal came together quicker than Lyft was initially anticipating. So, I think about that because if you're launching a market in a 60-square-mile, that's a pretty big radius. You would think that you would have a permanent depot set up. You want to start necessarily with a temporary depot.
Yeah, I, I think you're right. I think what you read is exactly probably what happened, which is, and they signed a deal with Waymo and like, okay, now we got to figure it out, right? So, they didn't really start quote-unquote digging, you know, until months after they're in the permanent process. And there's no way because they know we and maybe others, maybe not, are going to be there like filming this stuff and, and taking, taking a look at it. They're not going to like roll in a, a truck of, of diesel fuel to fuel a generator to charge these cars. That's the last thing that Dave Richer would like anyone to be seeing. That's the reality of how a lot of these initial depots get rolled out. You got the fuel with a generator, then the generator to the natural gas line, and then ultimately you finally get the electric company to show up and do this thing, which, which, you know, and that takes time. And like, look, I don't even know, like given how long we, these, it takes to do these things, like maybe they can't hit the Q4 timeline and maybe if we do go there in Q4, we will see a generator hooked up to a natty gas line as opposed to, you know, the charging that's going to be required to get this thing to move. So, we'll see. We'll see how that plays out, but you're right. These are, these are natural things. But the point is like, Lyft wasn't going in there pitching to Waymo like, "Hey, we're already building Flex Drive in Nashville." Again, speculation, but you know, but it, it wasn't in process. It started in process after they effectively awarded them that market with this new structure of relationship that, that Lyft has with Waymo, which is obviously very different than the type of relationship that Uber, Uber, excuse me, has with Waymo.
What I think about, we do not have a timeline of when the depot will be completed. We do have a timeline of when it could be on Lyft, which is Q4. Let's say the Waymo app is all hypothetical becomes wildly successful in the Nashville region. Does Waymo perhaps approach Lyft and say, "Okay, we're just going to stay in the Waymo app. We just want you to manage, manage the depots. And then perhaps we see Flexdrive go to other markets with, with Waymo without the Lyft app." Could that happen potentially?
I mean this is like an, a very important market for on two, on two fronts, the Flexdrive. And so if Flexdrive is great and but Lyft for whatever reason doesn't provide that incremental demand that they were looking for then sure, then that can be something that plays out. But I think that, again, this is a new type of market where as a reminder for those that don't listen every episode, the Waymo, the Waymo fleet will, it'll be one fleet that Waymo will use on the Waymo One app and Lyft will use in the, in the, in, you know, for their app. And you're like, "Okay, what, what's the big deal? Why is, why is that like something special?" Because in Phoenix, you know, where Uber and Waymo are together, there's literally two separate fleets. Like there's a Waymo fleet for the Waymo One app and there's a Waymo fleet for the Uber app. And obviously you're not going to get the same efficiencies on maximizing the use of the cars. Not even sure why that market hasn't modified one way or another. Like, "Okay, just give Uber the entire market or not." Like I don't understand what the point of that. They've had enough time to test that out. Maybe we'll see that play out in, in the coming months in terms of Phoenix. But you know, so I think that, that Grayson maybe if it's a complete botch, then you're right. Then maybe they just move forward with Flexdrive, but my guess is they might, it'll give Lyft an opportunity to try and test additional markets. And look, maybe this is a narrative changer for Lyft where, as, you know, Uber's is playing around with all these autonomy companies with safety drivers in them and potentially losing or not gaining additional markets with Waymo that Lyft becomes the kind of quiet second partner for Waymo in more and more markets. We'll see. Only time will tell.
