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Casey Seymour
Founder & Host, Moving Iron Podcast

Moving Iron: Smart Evaluation Wins—In Auctions, Farming, and Football

📅 Jan 15, 2026 Moving Iron Podcast 93 MIN 66 VIEWS 148 SEGMENTS · 4 SPEAKERS
In this episode, Casey and Greg dig into why the used farm equipment market is proving far more resilient than expected, with older machines holding strong at auction while new equipment continues to take heavy depreciation hits. They break down how weather, market pressure, and operational pivots are reshaping auction lineups — including the surprising influx of low-hour, late-model equipment as farms restructure and shift focus. See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information.

Questions asked in this interview

12
  1. 1:56No, they were in uh was it a father and son?
  2. 7:59So when I tell people actually an S670 went up 5.6% at auction last year, I get stares like what are you talking about?
  3. 14:34Uh it's just so dangerous to go off of a kind of a gut level, oh things things are down in the dumps or things are, you know, how much are we talking about?
  4. 34:33Bernie Kosar was the quarterback. Like, who are these guys?
  5. 37:38Looking for more accuracy, more productivity from your current planter?
  6. 57:28... but whatever city they were in when we would come here, I didn't punt very much.' And then he would say, you know, that made me laugh because that punter punted like three or four times the whole game, if even that many times, right?
  7. 1:15:28Go to an auction, lose a 100, that's a third, right?
  8. 1:17:00So just if we go back and look at the one-year-old stuff that's on the marketplace right now, right?
  9. 1:17:41So there's that, have to market, right?
  10. 1:23:18So there is a little bit of premium there. Now it's not 50%, right?
  11. 1:24:53But that's been a point of contention for a lot of dealerships, the amount of loader tractors that are on the marketplace, whether we're talking $50,000 loader tractors or $200,000 loader tractors, right?
  12. 1:28:54This is what do we do tomorrow to make sure it wasn't yesterday, right?
Casey Seymour 0:00 ↗
Welcome to Moving Iron with Casey Seymour and Greg Peterson. The podcast for anyone and everyone involved and interested in the business of equipment. If you want to understand what trends and market forces are impacting the price of your iron, you've come to the right place. Buckle up. It's time to move some iron.
Hello and welcome to Moving Iron Podcast. This edition of the Moving Iron Podcast is brought to you by John Deere. I've got Greg machinery Pete Peterson to talk about what's happening in the marketplace. Greg, how you doing today?
Greg Peterson 0:28 ↗
Yeah, pretty good. Machine. Yeah. Machine Greg Peterson machine repeat that. Hey, tongue twister. That's good. Fox and socks.
Casey Seymour 0:36 ↗
Have you seen that new video game? The viral video game where they have to say fox socks rocks jocks and they put it on the screen. Have you seen that?
Greg Peterson 0:45 ↗
No, I have not seen that.
Casey Seymour 0:46 ↗
Well, go to Instagram and just scroll a little bit and it's hilarious. People those tongue twisters, they just tie themselves up over. But we need maybe we need a machine repeat version of that.
Greg Peterson 0:55 ↗
I uh my tongue gets tied without any tongue twisters. So, it doesn't doesn't really matter.
Casey Seymour 1:00 ↗
I'm with you.
All right. Well, how you been, man? Since last week we talked, you got some cold weather up there now still?
Greg Peterson 1:06 ↗
Uh, actually a little warmer this week. Uh, we haven't had any snow for a while. So, uh, weatherman up here says looks dry through the end of January. A little bit warmer, but uh, not too bad. I did get down to Arkansas last week. That was fun. Was right in the northeast corner in Pocahontas. Um, our friend Kirk Witcher with Witcher Auctions has just a outstanding farm auction coming up on Thursday the 22nd. So, a week from Thursday, it's for Hill Farms. There's going to be some uh test the market items on that sale across the board. He's got a 23 model uh Stiger 470 Quadra with 73 hours on it. He's got a never used 24 model KH 550T 40ft air drill. Uh father and son operation there. Uh Rocky
Casey Seymour 1:54 ↗
Never been used.
Greg Peterson 1:56 ↗
No, they were in uh was it a father and son? Rocky and Seth uh Hill. I'll be posting the preview video. Great guys. They were in the rice business for about 10 years and they're of course you know that's tough tough sledding there. So they're repositioning focusing investing more on the poultry and livestock side of their business and they've been flooded out on the rice side. I didn't get to plant it all last year. Um, and I think flooded out like four of the last eight or something like that. They got three rivers running close there, northeast Arkansas. So, a lot of this equipment they bought, uh, just didn't get the usage. But, uh, yeah, they got a a Shellorn Reynolds RSD 32 foot stripper head used, 150 hours total. So, just a lot of late model stuff. So, again, that's on the
Casey Seymour 2:43 ↗
On the 22nd. That'll be interesting.
Greg Peterson 2:45 ↗
And it was fun to go hang out with Kirk Witcher. He's really growing his auction company down there. Kirk's a good guy. And uh should be I think that's an evening sale like 6:00 p.m. online farm auction on the 22nd. So can have my dinner and uh watch auction prices.
Casey Seymour 3:01 ↗
There you go. There you go. Yeah, that's that is some that is some low stuff. You're talking about a a stiger tractor for 73 hours plus air drill snow. I mean I guess it makes sense now that you say I'm like how's a 23 model only have 73 hours on it? And if you've been flooding it out two years in a row, it makes a lot of sense why you want to
Greg Peterson 3:17 ↗
Well, there's a lot of restructuring out there. Um, you know, moving out of certain areas, cotton or rice, and I'm no expert on following acreage and number of shifting out of things, but uh, you know, farmers just have to pivot and that's just what uh, Rocky and Seth said, you know, we're just pivoting away from the rice side of things and, uh, you know, got all this stuff. But it is interesting at auction Casey when you see stuff like this, people, it's natural, human nature. you go, "What the heck? Why is a three-year-old staggered 470 quad has 73 hours on it?" And I just find it helpful in those cases to hear, you know, Rocky or Seth in this case just say, "Well, here's the deal." And you can absorb it as you take it. Um now, it was not not a forced deal at all. They're just they're just pivoting. Uh in fact, they're building new poultry facilities down there. So, it's just, you know, it kind of just is what it is.
Casey Seymour 4:11 ↗
Yep. Yeah, diversification it's always one of those things you kind of slide one way the other, but yeah, just to be able to to shift and diversify out.
Greg Peterson 4:20 ↗
Yeah, for sure. For sure.
Casey Seymour 4:22 ↗
Well, there's been a We were talking a little bit of back and forth here before we got started. You said you were watching some sales here up in Indiana over the uh over the weekend.
Greg Peterson 4:31 ↗
Yeah, that was a really I thought a really strong sale Saturday, Casey. It was in um North Manchester, Indiana, which I I admit I don't frankly know where that is in Indiana off the top of my head, but it was a sale for uh I think the farm family was named Halpert. H A U P R T Halpert Farms retirement sale and kind of a similar sale, late model, low hour stuff. It was by Harmire Auction Appraisal Company. Um did a really good job promoting that sale. And a couple items that caught my eye, Casey, they had a 24 model Junior S760 combine. Uh it had 556 engine hours on it, 338 SE, and sold for 385,000, which that's the thing with these used combines. It's interesting. You can look at a lot of different ways, but from my angle, that's the second highest auction price ever on a S760. And interestingly, the only one higher was just barely higher, 389. That was back in uh get the right date for you here to be precise. It was mid December of 23 Monroeville, Ohio. I think Merit Auctions had that sale. That was a 22 model but only had 151 engine hours. And again, this one Saturday at 556 at 385. But we've been talking about a number of down the stretch here in 25 quite a bit, early 26 about how the lack of new sales of 24, 5 and now 26 model stuff is starting to have some ramifications through the chain down in the used market. And I think proof of that here on a now just barely 2-year-old machine, which I realize, you know, retail price on that was quite high. But again, I you know, I I keep track of that stuff, but also deal in the hard cash checkbook reality world and 385 was was more than I thought it was going to bring.
Casey Seymour 6:26 ↗
You know, if you go back and look at what that machine sold for new um and and where it was at, that machine probably sold for um let me look here real quick. I can give you a pretty good guess. Um if you
Greg Peterson 6:39 ↗
It's going to be a big number. It's a big number no matter what, but it's it was probably I'm totally guessing here. It was somewhere probably in in the uh the high fours. I'm guess like 485ish would be my guess.
Casey Seymour 6:50 ↗
I'm sure. Yeah, in that range. Right. Today, the a similar equivalent today is going to 625 to 675 depending on how you how you have it speced out is what your sale price is going to be. But if you looked at at where that that machine sold for compared to a new one. Now, this is the this is the thing where people get hung up on it. And I and I hear this kind have this conversation folks quite a bit, but oh my god, it looks that thing they're selling for a song like, yeah, oddly enough, it's the same percentage since I've been in this business for 20 years, 25 years, right? It's been the same percentage within a few percentage points of each other of what one year depreciation is, two year depreciation, and so on so forth. Now obviously you have some spike ups and spike downs depending on um you know what's if if the economy is settling out or things are in a free fall or whatever it is. I mean those those those widely vary, but when you're in a normal time where things are are being are solidifying and those kind of things, it's the same same percentage. And and if you do the math on this particular one and how it came out, you're about you're about 35% roughly, give or take a couple points
Greg Peterson 7:59 ↗
As that price of new has escalated so much. You're right. It's just the uh the hit the initial hit. Yeah, that's a significant dollars. And I think that is why when I travel around Casey and go to auctions and have been out to a lot lately, it very common to get people come up to me and they'll, you know, often times verbalize it and say, "Pete, wow, what a bloodbath on the sale." And I think what gets where their head is at is looking at that price of the new one, which you know is is certainly one data point. Um uh the reason I started doing this 36 almost and a half years ago was to take out some of the gut level uh conjecture that we all used to have to make whether you were on the dealer side on the auction side as a as a farmer. And so again, when that hard cash write me a check today, 385 again based on what I'd been seeing bring, even though it was that 24 model with 556R. That's more than I thought. And another interesting data point on combines from just that same day, Casey, last this past Saturday, so two days ago as we're recording this, but our friend Bryant Robersonson with Rich and Rich Auctioneers out in the southeast at an online farm auction Saturday night. And that one was in Charles City, Virginia. And kind of the lead item on that sale was a 15 model S670 21 402 engine hours on it and it brought 102,000. And I thought, well, that that sounds maybe a little higher than I thought. So I went and looked in our machine repeat auction price data and really interesting. Last year in 25 the average auction price on a S670 was was 85,462 bucks. Now in 24 that average on a S670 was 80,924. So when I tell people actually an S670 went up 5.6% at auction last year, I get stares like what are you talking about? Yeah, that's just what the numbers are. Now behind that is the fact that how much they dropped like a rock in 23 and four. In 23 they fell 23.7% hard cash auction followed by 24 they fell 19.8%. So but again that there's that solidifying we've been talking about for quite a while now. So this you know that's a 10 year old 11y old combine. Um and that S600 series made from what 12 to 17. So give or take either side 10 years it's firming up. And uh again that just sold Saturday.
Casey Seymour 10:42 ↗
Yeah, you know, I talked a lot about this during co that there was a quote unquote um scarcity premium that got put on machinery and I saw that anywhere between 25 to 30% to 50 to 60% depending on what the platform was, right? Um and you're talking about, you know, a fall off in uh 20 uh three of uh 20 23.9% whatever you said it was
Greg Peterson 11:06 ↗
23.7. Yep. 23.7 then 19 is some change in 24. If you do the math on that, that's that's 52% that that
Casey Seymour 11:14 ↗
It's a lot
Greg Peterson 11:14 ↗
That that that came off in and it's what drove the marketplace of COVID was supply and demand, right? It was there was a total lack of supply and a lot of demand, right? and and then you had a all the supply hit at one time and it there was not the demand actually the demand probably didn't really really change um uh for a lot of things but it just the amount of supply that was out there and and what it was was driving that and then again so you had this big decrease in value but you know it's it's a tough conversation to have with somebody when you're sitting there talking about hey you know what I'm going to uh take this auction and then, you know, get 65 cents on the dollar. Well, I hear you. But that in today's marketplace, those numbers are are are what you would expect to see happen on a 2-year-old machine with those kind of hours.
Casey Seymour 12:09 ↗
It's not as far as a percentage of new goes. Right now, the difference about that, Pete, is that we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars and not tens of thousands of dollars. And that's the big that's the big pain point out there right now. And should those should those numbers change and should those numbers think, you know, I don't think they will ever change because the reason for that is to get a used buyer interested in that in that piece of equipment. That's where it is. I think we've established it pretty well in the marketplace what the top end of that of that spectrum looks like. And for each for all these different kinds of of pieces of equipment, whether we're talking, you know, class 10, 11 combines, whether we're talking three, 400 hour roll crop tractors, or they're talking four-wheel drives and that, you know, 5600 hour range and whatever or 600 horsepower range, if you go back and look at 22, 23, 24, 20, and where we're at now in 25, if you look where they're at, you've kind of established what those ceilings are for those machines and where that's going to be at. So, if you're doing your research on this and you're taking a look at, hey, I'm going to take some stuff to auction or hey, I'm going to have an auction. You know, I love auctioneers to death. I think they're they're the best people on the planet. They're the goodhearted people, but they're a lot like seed reps. You know, if you grow my corn, I'm going to get you two extra bushel an acre, right? There's some of that goes into there, but but every one of those auction companies have a have have a record they can show you of past sales, what things look like. So, so do your homework. Do your due diligence. take a look at those at those sales and see what it is. So, not not because you're going to go out and try to find who's going to do best because it's it's what it is that day, right? It could be a good day, could be a bad day. You could have an auction today when the USDA decided, "Oh, guess what? We actually have a more corn than we thought." I don't know how that happened, but it drives the price down. So, it's going to jack with your with your with your uh option values. At the end of the day, when you're looking at who you're going to do your sale with, spend some time going through what their their past six sales been on on the equipment that you have that you're going to be selling and take a look at those things and see what those how how consistent those prices are at each one of those sales because it's going to paint a picture of who you want to do business with. And I think that's the most important thing about looking at auction values right now is what auction company am I going to use based around their performance. Just like anything else that you look at when in the farming operation you're going to use based around their performance.
Greg Peterson 14:34 ↗
Yeah. I mean what we've talked about it before but what is the auction company doing or what are they not doing? I mean to obviously internet bidding is huge and that takes care of a lot of it but there was a reason I was in Pocahontas Arkansas on last Thursday and you know Kirk Witcher and those two brother or father and son are having this sale. They wanted me there because I think when you put it in voice like I like standing there with my iPhone and saying, "Seth, why does your 470 quad have 73 hours on it?" And then Seth will explain, "Well, you know, we're getting out of rice and stuff." Again, it's personal. And I I do find uh you know, I get hit with this as I go all over the country. And again, I I understand where it comes from, this big gap between new and used. Um, but if we dive deeper on those S670s, that's really interesting because we talked about how much they fell 23 and four. They bumped up a little bit so far. Well, in 25 and our friend Bryant just sold that 15 model Saturday night for 102, which I thought was pretty good. The current average dealer advertised price on a S670 is 111,980 bucks. And so my old my machine repeat ratio average auction price versus average dealer ad price 76.3%. So 26 years ago when I started compiling average dealer ad price on 2-year-old stuff, 20-y old stuff, 10 71 to 76 is right in the stable window. And so when we've been talking about stabilizing this last year, that's proof of it right there. And it's uh again, I just encourage people to really plug into these trends and be aware of them even as you're talking to your lender. Uh it's just so dangerous to go off of a kind of a gut level, oh things things are down in the dumps or things are, you know, how much are we talking about? So, you got to be specific. And that's hopefully what our data has helped people get a handle on over the last 36 years.
Casey Seymour 16:46 ↗
Yeah. And just like what you laid out right there, when those machines get to that that level of age, right, and you start looking at where things are at retail wise versus auction, they're always really close. You're talking you're within um in that particular instance, you're within what nine grand of what the retail asking price is, right? So, if you go to the dealership and start wheeling and dealing and doing those kind of things, you're you're probably going to get pretty close to that 1002 mark, right? I mean, ultimately, I mean, you're going to get you're going to get close to it after you start looking at this that, and the other thing, you're going to be within a reasonable um time frame of that. Now, people still saying, well, it's still you're still, you know, 76% of what it of what it is. Yeah, that's right. There is
Greg Peterson 17:30 ↗
The market is really never wrong. It just is what it is on a certain day. Whether you're talking land values or used machinery, we don't have to like it, but boy, you better be aware of it. And it's uh again, I I found it interesting that sale these two sales Saturday, Casey, because here we are approaching mid January. So these now we stripped out to whatever extent you think there was, you know, or I might think there was froth in the market in December, which I think there was. Um there there's no year end tax buyers last Saturday. They just they're just looking for that right machine, whether it's a 10-y old combine in Charles City, Virginia, or the 2-year-old one in North Manchester, Indiana. And again, I just I start it's it's just looking more clear to me that uh I'm not saying we're anywhere near 21 and two in terms of used inventory record tight levels, but it's so much tighter than it was say at two years ago at the start of 24. Um and you track that more than anybody volume of late model units on the market. And I think it's starting. That's why I think that S 760 went as high as 385 on on Saturday.
Casey Seymour 18:44 ↗
Yeah. Well, yeah. If you take a look at where things are at, the fastest growing what you would expect to see this, but it's growing really slow, right? And it's not really going to grow much more than what it is. It's that one and two-y old pe one well the one-year-old equipment, two-year-old stuff. You're seeing a lot of activity in 2-year-old stuff, and you're seeing even more activity in the 3 to 5year-old stuff, especially at the end of the year, right? um what you would expect like I would expect to see that to happen, right? If I was looking at who's going to come and buy something right now where that two to fivey old stuff sets, that's going to hit a lot of sweet spots for a lot of people, right? That are coming in the market to buy to upgrade to something newer than what they have, right? But you go back and look at the at basically the six-year-old stuff that's and older, you know, six to 10 year old stuff and then, you know, 11 and older stuff. if you really start to break those numbers down and start to look, they grew a little bit over the time, but you would expect that because those are the tradeins that came in on the guys buying that two to two to five, you know, year old stuff and you would expect to see it happen. What I'm anticipating and and really looking forward to, Greg, is how how much does that um kind of back to the conversations you've had with some other folks um around the country when you start looking at the auction stuff, how much does that six year old and older stuff start to really work its way into the auction marketplace? And how fast do you see that to start doing maybe even some some upward quote unquote appreciation of equipment on that 3 to 5y old stuff?
Greg Peterson 20:17 ↗
Well, we're going to have a good test on that sale. I mentioned on the 22nd Casey down in Arkansas Pocahontas. So, they've got uh we talked about the tractors, but they've got a 19 model case 8250 542 set powers on it. So, if you're in the market for that 5-ish year old tri combine, here's one with Now, again, you could look and say, I'm in Minnesota, so historically people used to say, well, Arkansas, it's pretty far south. You know, it it's south of here. It's a rice machine. Had the chrome package on it, whatever. You can hear the owners talk about it. It's only got 542 sub hours. So, we'll see on Thursday the 22nd in the evening what a 70-year-old 8250 with hardly any hours on it is worth. U yeah, that's the beauty and the power and the brutal honesty of the auction market at work. It's just it's going to bring what it's going to bring. Sometimes they trend up and like we documented in 24 and back in 1415, you know, it fell like a rock. So, um you know, we shall see.
Casey Seymour 21:19 ↗
Yeah, it'll be interesting to watch the Ras machine sell and what what it brings and and that's going to be interesting to watch because if you're looking for a machine that's got, you know, extended wear packages on it, this is the got the king of extended wear packages on it and rice machines are notorious for the for the amount of stuff that they have to run through them and what that looks like. So this will be and really for a 19 model machine again like you talked about earlier Greg I mean here's a here's a producer that hasn't been able to farm that particular crop since you know two or three years now. So you know that's again you got a 2019 machine with with 500 hours on it 500 separator hours on it. You've got an opportunity to get a good quality machine that should have you know close to a thousand hours on it at this particular point in time.
Greg Peterson 22:05 ↗
Yeah it'll it'll be interesting. Um, and I some other interesting data points last week, Casey. I mean, again, the P-DEF stuff is continuing to do what it's doing. We saw an '05 8320 that Big Iron sold. I think it was out of Brockton, Illinois last Wednesday. A guy's name was Larry Upgraph. I think it was his online farm retirement auction. Low hours for an05, what 20 plus years old now. 2267 hours. You expect there to be a premium and brought 134. So again, when you let
Casey Seymour 22:36 ↗
Don't let it beat the chance, like how high is that?
Greg Peterson 22:39 ↗
Well, that's the highest in 23 months hard cash auction.
Casey Seymour 22:43 ↗
And I I made a note on a talk this morning. I was looking at that. I was using our machine repeat auction price auction uh search tools, filters, and I it's the 13th highest auction price ever over 2,200 hours on 8320. But all 12 that sold higher sold from March of 22 to January of 24. So that little window when the market was on fire at 22, early mid 23, that's when all the highest 8320 sold at auction. Back to your supply and demand, you know, back in that uh coming out of COVID that supply chain mess. Um, you know, so looking backwards now, uh, you can you can kind of see, and this is why I wrote about this in 24, if you were looking to buy on the used market, that was the time to be really aggressive. Uh, maybe in the first half of 25. Now it's starting to tighten up a little bit. We'll see what happens from here. But I think that's the value of keeping tabs on this data because you can you can get a sense for, okay, I got to pull back. This is getting too hot. or I should dive in because this stuff has softened up enough. So, yeah, one other interesting stat I'll get your take on this one, Casey. Curious. But I was reading uh Minneapolis paper. I'm still a physical paper guy. That's how old I am. I like to get the paper. Our two daughters say, "Why are you reading 30 pages of the internet, Dad? That's stupid." But anyway, I'm reading the paper and I read this story that says, "The average age of vehicles on the US roads is now 12.8 8 years old and that's a record age of vehicles. Now, I don't track that stuff, but I read that and I went, "Huh, that's a lot what you and I have been talking about the last 6, nine months is people stretching out the life of their used to farm equipment lines because times are challenging." And it's also tied to the fact that the price of a new vehicle is like, "Oh my god, it's like 110,000 for a pickup. That's nuts." Or 800,000 for a new combine. That's pretty high. And so that will make you drive your car longer or drive your 10-year-old tractor longer. So just curious on your take on that. Uh
Greg Peterson 24:57 ↗
By I've been looking for a a car for my wife for, you know, I'm always looking, right? So what's where's the deal at out there? But you know, there's some of these if you just look at a at a basic I'm just SUV. You pick you picked, you know, whether you're looking at a Ford GM or whatever it is you're looking at, right? fullsize SUV, you're you're gonna be spending $65,000 just to get the four wheels and the windows, you know? I mean, that's that's, you know, like I told a guy one day, I was down here looking at a car. I was like, I just want to I don't want to drive it. I don't want to live in it. So, I don't I don't need I don't know where you're This one was like it was a $100,000 thing. It was not like an Escalade or anything like that. It was just a it was a you know I a well equipped equipped car you know and I was so I was looking at that going like man that's you start doing the math on that in your head and you just dividing by 72 and you come up real quick with a thousand plus dollar a month payment and and I'm thinking to myself at what point in time does that but then you go look at a at a used one that's got 40,000 miles on it 50,000 miles on it and it's not that much cheaper than the new one is, right? So,
Casey Seymour 26:12 ↗
Well, that gets interesting there because and we might see ramifications with new farm equipment sales here because we've just been seeing November, December used, you know, like I said, that S760, 385, whatever you think of it. That was higher than it I guess it would go for because things are trending up hard cash. So at one point if that continued for a while it and I remember writing about this in 22 and three it's like you know what the plan is just to buy new get your warranty and yeah it's high but then just like you said if if used is getting that high that does tilt it back to towards at least considering you know whether it's leasing um whatever. So it's uh it's it's kind of fascinating. Yeah, to track this.
Greg Peterson 27:00 ↗
I think we might have also further defined the K-shaped economy, Casey, because on the one hand, oldest fleet of vehicles ever on US roads. So, people stretching out how long they hold their cars, but sales of new vehicles have gone up. So, that tells you the people on the top part of the K are flush. They're doing well. They're spending money. They can drop 100K on that, whatever. And if you're on the other part of that K, it's Katie bar the door, buckle down, and hold on with white knuckles to what you got. And it's not fun.
Casey Seymour 27:31 ↗
Kind of makes you wonder how much of that stuff falls under the a leasing strategy comparatively to to um you know, a retail note purchase tile thing on on that side because again on on the uh one of the big driving factors more in any of this, it's interest rates, right? And that's what's driving this, right? So, I mean, you know, you can you can look at two three $400,000 stuff back pre-COVID and but you're getting a 2.9% interest rate. And now, you know, now today you're you're doing that same thing on, you know, essentially double the price and you're tripling the interest rate, right? So, you know, two and a half times interest rate or whatever it might be. And that that again goes back to even at 0%. But you're also seeing some manufacturers roll out. If you look at new stuff, there's there's a lot of zero for 24. There's some 2.9 for for 48 and those kind of things that there's some there's some things out there that you can take advantage of. But again, it's, you know, you got to associate that stuff back to what's that payment look like on the back side of that. And that's going to that's going to it's just like cars, right? Just like you're talking about on the car side of it. Well, you're going to have plenty of people that are saying, "Okay, that's just I got to TPO what I'm doing."
Greg Peterson 28:47 ↗
That's really interesting. If you want uh confirmation of what you just said, go back to our Twitter feed, Machine Repeat, and find that post I made Saturday, I think, Saturday morning when I read that. And I just again, I just posted, hey, average age of US fleet of vehicles on the road, 12.8 all-time record high. Look at the comments. Some of it pertains to the price of news or is a joke. I don't want to pay that. Some of it is like the new stuff. I don't like it as much as the older simpler stuff. But then there's like the the whole payment factor. You're saying, well, so it's just all across the broad spectrum. People are chiming in with their take on it. But it's all based around accurate data, which again I that's the thing that I like to cement the conversation on is okay, what are we talking about here? And uh I just think on our farm equipment end of things, the used market again, it surprised me when it started to solidify so quickly last year back in February and that it held all year. And it surprised me when it went up a little bit in November, December. And it surprised me some of these early first big test cases in January have been so strong. But again, the market is not wrong. It's just reflecting all the mix of factors we're talking about, right?
Casey Seymour 30:03 ↗
Yep. tons and miles here. Yeah, they've got a uh one of the things um that I I think is going to happen is just that it's just going to that's why I don't think there's going to be on the top end of the funnel on the on the equipment side of the bill on used equipment side of it that there's going to be a real like oh my god we don't have very much we got to figure this out thing because of the price that's going to drive that. The flip side of that is the stuff that's underneath that that that's three to you know anywhere from two to six years old depending on what it is and how the hours and those kind of things are going to make a big difference but and condition those kind of things. That's where you're going to see a bottleneck in the funnel that's going to cause um a lot of a lot of um you know what you've been talking about, you know, some of these elevated auction prices that you're seeing that that are surprising you on some of this older stuff because in a lot of cases that's kind of your choice if you're if you're looking at upgrading some stuff just because of where financially what the position that you're in. Some of these some of these machines are going to be what you have to pick from if you want to upgrade your stuff. Yeah.
Greg Peterson 31:13 ↗
Yeah. If you can find uh the widest point of that supply side, whatever model year and I've always written the auction data that for 36 years tracking it. We talk about it a lot, Casey, but that kind of I say three to seveny old is is really a great value place to land if you're buying on on the farmer side because that big depreciation bump we talked about the one two three-year-old stuff. But then again, like just like that S670 sold in Virginia Saturday night, a 102 hard cash that's solidifying and holding. And so you get yourself into that 3 to seveny old spot with the nicest lowest hour stuff you can get. call your dealer. There's good stuff on the lot. There's plenty at auction, for sale, private, whatever. But that's still a good value play in my book. And then uh if you get to be 10 years old and still have low hours on it, you're going to be in a really strong place whether you want to trade that or sell it outright or have an auction. Come and have an auction.
Casey Seymour 32:12 ↗
Yeah, for sure. I think that'll continue to drive the marketplace into a into a bigger a bigger concept as things move around and and keep things uh moving forward. So interesting thing to watch. you know, we got we have no lack of stuff to talk about here in 26 just like in the past, you know. So, we'll have right keep everybody up to date on on where we see the market headed in our opinion, what we see happening. So, um let's keep things pushing forward. So,
Greg Peterson 32:35 ↗
Yeah, I love it. Hey, thanks for uh stirring the conversation all these weeks, Casey. And, uh I'm glad to see the sun is shining out there in Scots.
Casey Seymour 32:43 ↗
Yeah, it's for a change. Yeah, it's it's typically uh it's typically a uh a little cloudier here late, but it's sunny today for sure. For sure. Well, Greg, I gotta ask you this. I got to get your take on this. You got Miami or Indiana on Monday?
Greg Peterson 32:59 ↗
Oh, well, I I am a Big 10 boy, Minnesota. So, our golfers haven't been to the Rose what used to be the Rose Bowl since ' 62. So, our dad taught us once the golfers were out, cheer for the Big 10. And uh it is cool to see Indiana uh do what they've been doing. And I'm so old, Casey. I remember the last undefeated college basketball national champion was the University of Indiana. 50 years ago exactly March of 76. So how cool if the Hooers now can do it on the football side. Yeah. And I know that's getting into paying players and stuff like that. It's kind of wild, but it is pretty cool to see the University of Indiana just come out and beat the tar out of some traditional powers. It shows you what's possible, I guess. Yeah.
Casey Seymour 33:50 ↗
So, as a child of the 80s, I would love to see the you back, you know, you guys. I just I just I mean, growing up, you know, just watch those games, bro. It was always a great time. But at the same time, just like you, you know what I mean? It's like I'd love to see you got you have two two stories here, right? You had Miami that's been kind of struggling to get things rolling since the early 2000s and and here they have an opportunity to do that and Indiana is just like it shows you what what if you do the NIL thing and the portal right you know it's if you have Mark Cuban as an alumnist you can do some things you can do some things right well it shows you too the you don't have to have a bunch of five stars to be successful you know
Greg Peterson 34:33 ↗
Yeah, I've got a couple of Miami references that might make you smile. Now, one, we got a shout out to our Nebraska viewers. We have tons of viewers. Well, you're in Nebraska. So, if you're old like me, you remember New Year's Night in 1984. So, the end of the 83 season, University of Nebraska, that was the Kendall Gil, Mike Rosir, Turner Gill, uh, Juggernaut. They came up to Minnesota and beat our golfers in the dome 84-13. They were unbeaten. Get to the Rose Bowl. They're playing University of Miami. Yeah. Who at the time was an upstart. Bernie Kosar was the quarterback. Like, who are these guys? And of course, Miami was awesome. They wound up winning the game. And if you want a really old University of Miami reference, my all-time favorite Minnesota Viking player was Chuck Foreman, running back in the 70s. He graduated from Miami in 1972, first round pick of the Vikings. And number 44 is my all-time favorite.
Casey Seymour 35:38 ↗
Yeah, it'll be interesting. It's going to be a really good game. You know, should be. I thought I thought Oregon and Indiana was going to be a good game, too, but it it turned out it turned out not to be so so well. So, I saw that this is Indiana's defense was so amazing. I'm starting to read things on the internet where uh opposing player I suppose it's just the age we live in but people are starting to say they must know our signals and it's like I think they're just kicking the living car out of you. I don't know how they're how they're doing it but uh hats off to them for what they're doing. It's it's pretty incredible to watch.
Greg Peterson 36:12 ↗
I read I read something already about on the internet an article this morning about how Indiana is under investigation for cheating because for having such a perfect season. I mean, seriously, jealousy is a human emotion. I tell you what, hopefully hopefully it'll be a great game. What day is the finals? I'm not even sure.
Casey Seymour 36:31 ↗
Monday. Monday night.
Greg Peterson 36:32 ↗
Monday night. Okay.
Casey Seymour 36:33 ↗
Yep.
Greg Peterson 36:34 ↗
Monday night. It'll be uh it's going to be a good one. It's going to be a good one. And then I gota I got to go 1985 Super Bowl all over again. Bears. Bears Patriots.
Casey Seymour 36:44 ↗
Oh, we have we have a number of devout Bears fans on our Machine Pete sales team and they were texting us the night of the Green Bay game and uh wow, I think they're still partying in Chicago. That was quite a quite a finish. Half half the town had to get uh you know, shocked back to life after the first half, you know what I mean? So, we'll see. We'll see what happens. Greg, it'll be it'll be fun. All right, Greg. Well, Greg, folks want to reach out to you. Easiest way to do that just go to machine Pete's website or check you out on uh all your all your different social media.
Greg Peterson 37:17 ↗
Exactly. Just reach out folks. Uh love to talk and catch up and uh yeah it's uh Facebook, Twitter, machineree.com. You know where to find me.
Casey Seymour 37:26 ↗
Right on. Well, Greg, we appreciate you being on. We'll catch you again next week.
Greg Peterson 37:30 ↗
Sounds great, brother.
Casey Seymour 37:31 ↗
All right. Stay tuned for more moving iron podcast after these lessons.
Narrator 37:38 ↗
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Casey Seymour 38:08 ↗
All right, welcome back to movie podcast. got Sean Hackett back on to talk about what's happening in the marketplace. Sean is with Hacket Financial out of Poctoone in Florida. I wanted to get Sean's on here. So, this we're recording this on Monday. Uh this USDA report came out um the January wy came out talk about spending stocks, what have you, and it was not not that anyone's asking my opinion, but it wasn't what I was expecting to see happen. And according to the marketplace, it wasn't what they're expecting to see happen either.
Sean Hackett 38:37 ↗
Well, I I think it's like weather models, right? Uh I think anyone can look at the history of weather models, uh whether whether it's the GFS or the Euro and know that they're maybe 20% accurate on a two-e forecast. Yep. when they say something, somehow the the market believes that the models know best and they trade them. Even though their track record is so bad, they still trade the weather models. Um, and they still do it to this day. USDA is no different. Whether we're talking about coffee, whether we're talking about sugar, corn, cotton, if you look at the history of USDA reports and their estimates and what actually turn out to be the true uh production numbers, you know, their accuracy is very very poor, like not even close to being accurate. Yet somehow just because it's the government the you and the market just says well if they say it then it must be true. And unfortunately until we break the shackles of that ridiculous orientation that we should believe entities and models that have such a poor track record of predicting whatever they're supposed to be predicting. If and until we stop trading that we are subject to um very very inefficient markets and markets that for a w little while will go you know significantly against the true nature of the fundamentals. This is not the first time we've had a bogus USDA report. I mean this happens all the time. um and they always find a way to um correct it over time. Historically, when they've made a mistake like they've clearly made, um they'll first correct it in the quarterly grain stocks report in the March report and in the June report. Those are the next two quarterly grain stocks. So, let's just somehow say we just can't find all those bushels. It must be that demand is stronger than we thought and the residual stronger than we thought and they and they they they they put their hand on the Ouija board and and and come up with a you know a dramatic change of events. The problem is this getting the number right in June is very very different than getting the number right in January. Y getting the number right in January means for upper $4 corn. Uh I don't know what it means getting in June because so many other factors will now be part of the corn market at that time. We'll have South American weather on corn. We'll have the planting season on corn. We'll have the initial stages of June weather in the new in the uh growing cycle. We'll have whatever new geopolitics we have. The problem is by the time they get to the right number, the market is so far removed from it that they're just focused on something else. And it just I'm I'm not saying it's it's not a factor. It just is not as important a factor as it would be if they came out with what I believe to be a more appropriate number today. And so the problem with that is is that um farmers have to sell. We know they have to sell. They have they periodically have to sell. They have to raise cash. They have to pay their bills. They have to pay their bankers. And you know, you can only go so long without selling before it's like, you know, I just kind of got to sell. And after a day like today where the USDA, you know, comes out with what they did and the price does what it did. A lot of farmers are going to sell today and tomorrow and maybe over the next week. This is what happens. you get a bunch of cheap corn that gets flooded into the market because the farmer is scared to death. Understandably so, by the way. Um, and he says, "I just I I can't stomach any more decline from a price that's it was already not profitable before. Now it's really really unprofitable." And so the end user just buys a bunch of cheap corn and then all of a sudden they they tell everybody it's not so bad. And I mean it's not so good and it's not and things are not as good as we thought and all of a sudden the weather is this and then you have yourself and you find yourself back at 480 corn but the farmer has already sold at 420 corn or you know and and and that's the insidiousness of this type of give and take that we see repeatedly and as I said it's not just the grain markets uh you know uh that we see this I mean we see this in a bunch of other markets that the USDA puts numbers out for and um it's really unfortunate. The other problem with the USDA is sometimes they do tell the truth. They do every once in a while. Sometimes they do. Last year in January they did. They did tell the truth and the market took off. So that's the problem. The problem is, are they in the mood of telling the truth or are they not in the mood of telling the truth? So, there's two forecasts, Casey. There's the forecast of what is the USDA going to say and this forecast of what's actually true. Now, those that uh gamble on correctly ascertaining the USD report got a 50-50 chance of being right. Anytime you be, hey, it's going to be good, it's going to be bad. Well, it half the people are going to get it right and half the people get it wrong if you're just flipping a coin, right? So, those that get the USD report right are revered as soothsayers. They understand what's going on in the country's line. No, they just either got super lucky or they just happen to gain the system of how the USDA was going to operate in this particular growing season. What I've always believed is the correct thing to do is I don't really believe anybody can correctly predict what the USDA is going to say given that they're so much of a chameleon in terms of sometimes they tell the truth, sometimes they don't tell the truth. You know, trying to predict that kind of inconsistency to me is not something I'm interested in. I always have a pretty good idea of what the truth is. And if they happen to say something significantly against what the actual true fundamental picture really is and the market does something stupid like it did today and it may do it tomorrow, there's an opportunity. That's how I've always felt is the best way for the farmer, for the end user, for those in agriculture is not to try to predict a report that can't be predicted. Tell me anybody that accurately predicts every USD report every year. It does not exist, Casey. There is nobody that says, "I have a a 95% track record of predicting USD." They don't exist. Half of the time they get it right. Half. So, we stop doing it because we're going to get it right half the We're going to wrong half the time because that's the nature of the beast. So, more
Importantly, do you actually know what the true nature of the fundamentals are? Do you have an ability historically, statistically, cyclically to know or have a really good idea of what the truth actually is, so that if the USDA pulls a fast one and if the markets do something against the direction of the true trend, you can advise your customers correctly. And I believe this is one of those times where I don't think there's any doubt in my mind in our work based upon the weather that took place, the evidence of the harvest results that in our network, and today we shared a network of a totally independent source of somebody who's really, really sharp, who's looking at 8,900 different plots across the entire grain belt that did the same thing last year, saying the crop is worse than last year. You know, some very, very serious people, you know, put some significant granularity to what this crop's going to be. And just because the USDA decided they're going to say 186 and a half has nothing to do with that being the truth.
What it does mean is that speculative traders who are taught to trade headlines and sell thousands and thousands of contracts in the blink of an eye based upon headlines, which they're free to do, by the way. They're allowed to do this. I'm not saying there's anything wrong with speculators doing whatever they think they need to do on a short-term basis, but it doesn't mean that they're validating the report. Doesn't mean they're validating the USDA. They're just trading what they think is a short-term opportunity to profit.
And I would argue that those on the other side, those involved more in what I believe in, in the actual physical farming business, can do the exact same thing. They're free to trade that on the negative side. We're free to take advantage of their shortsightedness and look at the longer-term picture that they're just trading a number that's actually quite incorrect. And so that's where I believe we are. When we try to utilize, Casey, something called linear regression analysis. It's a simple statistical tool that puts layers of supports and resistance levels based upon a time frame that you select. And we try to select a 10-year window. Meaning, how do prices tend to trade over a 10-year window? Usually over any 10-year period, Casey, you've seen inflation, you've seen deflation, you've seen a good economy, you've seen a bad economy, you've seen a black swan event, you've seen big crops, small crops, droughts, floods, perfect weather. You've kind of seen it all. And so there's a rhythm to the market. And so when we do that analysis on March corn and May corn on a monthly and on a quarterly basis, I always love when we can get multiple time frames that are giving us similar levels. 410 May corn, 410 March corn is extreme support on a linear regression 10-year basis.
And if we're able to, I think today we closed around 421, I think, on something like that. But what we're suggesting is that if we're able to trade down to that 410 area in the next few days, which if you're going to get any more momentum, usually the way this works, Casey, they sell, they sell, they sell. They tend to have three days of selling and then whatever they've done, they're done, right? So if we're going to see this 410 area, give or take, probably going to see it the next couple of days or we're not going to see it at all. And if we don't see it at all, that's extremely interesting information. If we do see it, that's extremely interesting information because to me that's where, like, if you need to buy physical corn as a livestock producer or as an ethanol producer, to me, you know, you've been given this last-ditch negative bearish piece of information, the last bit of the last negative catalyst at the market and trade for probably quite some time.
Everybody who was hanging on for dear life probably will sell today if they haven't already done so, or will sell tomorrow. I mean, it's the nature of human nature. When you finally give up on the last piece of information you thought was going to be positive and it's not, then that's your low. Like when everybody is sold, that's your low. So I think we were at a, at least on corn. This is specifically on corn, Casey. I did not expect a positive soybean report and we didn't get one. I was not expecting a positive wheat report and we didn't get one. So I want to be very, very clear that I was not expecting those two markets to see anything good in this report and they did not see it. I'm just flabbergasted that the USDA can possibly with a straight face put out that kind of information when I think it's pretty obvious by anyone that is a reasonable purveyor of what is taking place can understand and suggest that that's not likely going to be the right number. And so that's where we're at. The market is what it is. It's extremely unfortunate short-term for producers.
But eventually the market will get the fundamentals right. And I do believe that we're going to be entering a much more interesting series of weather events going forward that's going to start to shift the focus on endless supply to something that might be a little less. And so that's where we're at. I guess the last thing I would say is this: for those that correctly predicted the USDA report, good job. But that's not important. It really is not important. What's really important is if the USDA is wrong and what others have been saying, including myself, are right, then selling now is absolutely the wrong thing to do. And that's really the most important decision to make: is selling today, tomorrow, the next day the right thing to do based upon this piece of information? At the end of the day, that's really the decision. If you didn't sell before the report, you can't go back.
And I don't believe, and we've made these recommendations on your show many, many times before when we've been in these dire times, these times of no hope, no future. It's never going up again. And I don't think this is a very good time to be selling corn unless you absolutely, positively don't have a choice but to sell right now. And if you have to sell, then I don't know what else to say. But if you have a decision to make, selling now, in my opinion, with what I'm seeing going forward, is not in your best interest. And I believe in the next three months and the next six months and the next nine months, anyone that sells post this report, I believe will feel as silly as the bulls feel right now. And that's where I stand.
Casey Seymour 54:52 ↗
Right on. Okay, Sean. Good place to stop. If folks want to reach out to you, get more information on what you know at Hackett Financial, what's the easiest way to do that?
Sean Hackett 55:00 ↗
Our website is hackettadvisors.com. We also have a Twitter page at Fairex11, LinkedIn page. In fact, we just posted actually a Twitter of one of your interviews, Casey, that we just did that was really, really outstanding. And I would highly encourage everyone to listen to that if they haven't already done so.
Casey Seymour 55:22 ↗
Right on. Well, Sean, we appreciate you being on the podcast. We'll catch you again next time.
Sean Hackett 55:25 ↗
Sounds good, Casey. Thanks so much.

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Seymour, C. (2026, January 15). Moving Iron: Smart Evaluation Wins—In Auctions, Farming, and Football [Interview transcript]. Moving Iron Podcast. CEOInterviews.AI. https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3004826/

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Casey Seymour. "Moving Iron: Smart Evaluation Wins—In Auctions, Farming, and Football." Moving Iron Podcast, 15 Jan. 2026. Transcript, CEOInterviews.AI, https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3004826/.

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@misc{seymour2026_3004826,
  author       = {Casey Seymour},
  title        = {Moving Iron: Smart Evaluation Wins—In Auctions, Farming, and Football},
  howpublished = {Interview transcript, Moving Iron Podcast. CEOInterviews.AI},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = {jan},
  url          = {https://ceointerviews.ai/interview/3004826/},
  note         = {Speaker-attributed transcript with timestamps}
}