Moving Iron: The Impact of External Factors on Farm Equipment Market

I'm doing well, Casey. How are you?

You're knocking off your honey-do's before Mother's Day. Good man. Bonus points.

I had a drain guy out at the house last week here and we get some heavy rains. We get these bigger rains here out in southeast Minnesota and we're having a little issue. Not nothing in the house, but it's just they're like, 'Oh, you got these collapsed drains running out back.' And that's like you say, you just okay. It'd be nice just for a period of time we can get something that just worked. But hey, ask any farmer how that goes, I guess, huh?

Yeah, I think again, more proof end of this past last week, Casey, like we've talked about for quite a while now, the thinning top end of the used equipment market in terms of volume based on the just lack of new sales the past couple years is really starting to show up in the auction market. And sometimes people say, 'Ah, Machinery Pete, you know, that pre-def stuff.' Which of course super strong, right? But what farmers want, but you know, we're seeing examples like this past Friday, my friends at Wilson National, great auction company, Brandon and Doug and Mark and their team there. I mean, these guys market really well. Very big on land sales, too, by the way. But they had a sale for Bear Creek LLC, really nice farm auction. This is in Dayton, Ohio.

And I was pretty interested in Casey. They had a 2020 model 8R 340 with 292 hours on it. So, I thought, 'Well, that'll, you know, that'll be an interesting one.' And it came in at 350,000 bucks. Which that's actually not the highest this year. We've had one scrape up to 360,000 and a quarter. But if you look at 8R 340's auction price data, it's really interesting. So far this year now, the average is up 12.5% coming in at 326, basically 326,400. And last year, the average auction price was just over 290, 290,064 bucks. Okay. But when I look at that data on 8R 340's, you and I have talked about this a lot. What really pops out is we have a little counter, you know, in terms of the number sold at auction. And wow, I got it. When you look at 2 years ago how many 8R 3's, not just that model, of course, but any late model high horse tractor, the huge jump, just huge jump. And then last year, it receded. The number sold as dealers pulled back. The big jump was, you know, dealers trying to get ahead of it, which I'm sure they're glad they did 2 years ago. Wouldn't want to have all that stuff sitting on a lot now. But when you combine that with the lack of new sales, that's why now you see that strong hard cash number on a 4-year-old unit. Granted, it had low hours, but that same auction was strong through the sale.

And for red fans out there, they had kind of a unique item. A 9350 Case IH articulating four-wheel drive, which we don't see a ton of those around. Very nice one. It was listed only 2,379 hours. That came in at 67,000 bucks, which that's the fifth highest hard cash on a 9350 four-wheel drive the past 5 years. They also had an 11-year-old Mack 39-ft dump trailer for 40K. 11 years old, again, up through the line just really strong hard cash numbers.

Oh, yeah. That's a good one. Let me screen that up. That was the next day, this past Saturday. So, what, April 20th, April 18th. Jason Aycock, Jason Aycock Auctioneering. Got to do a shout out for my friend Jason. He's very rhythmic. The last 3 years, like seriously, every Saturday from February through April, you can book it. Jason Aycock's going to have a very nice auction. And he had one this past Saturday for Joe Godwin, a farm retirement auction out of Benson, North Carolina, which of course makes my ears perk up cuz I'm a Benson, Minnesota boy. And when I fly into Raleigh, I drive south and I see that turnoff for Benson, North Carolina. Beautiful country out there. Joe had a really nice line of equipment, but that S670 you're talking about with 150 engine hours. So, for 130, no heads. And so, I thought, 'Ooh, that seems pretty high.' So, I dove in at machinerypete.com and used our filters. And if you look at S670's with over 2,000 engine hours, that's the second highest one in 38 months. Yep. And then again, I love our friends in North Carolina. That particular area, northeast North Carolina, southern Virginia, very great farm ground out there. We up here in Minnesota, our upper Midwest, we'd say North Carolina must be way cheaper. And it's like, 'Dude, they have really good equipment there.' Mhm. But again, that S670, 130, 2 days ago, that came out of North Carolina. So, that was an eye-opener.

I had one other piece of equipment I should run this by you, Casey, to see if you've heard of it. Cuz I admit, I don't think I've heard of it. It was the top selling item on the sale, went for 150,000 bucks. So, have you heard of the Rooster?

The Rooster, it was an RP10. It's the ultimate... This is how it was described on the internet. You go to people who make this thing. The ultimate prep machine. It's got 180 teeth that rips out any roots. So, if you want to get your land ready for, you know, whatever. 10-ft wide. But again, that thing sold for 150,000 bucks. I don't know what it sells for new. Maybe some of our listeners know what a new Rooster sells for, but that was... And again, this was on the Joe Godwin farm retirement auction Saturday, Benson, North Carolina. Of course, they grow the variety of crops they grow down there is really something. And there's some cottons, peanuts, sweet potatoes, corn, soybeans. But yeah, that one stopped me in my tracks. I don't know if Machinery Pete's ever seen the Rooster sell. Well, sometimes it does. Call my friend Jason, see if he's got any video of that thing selling. You have to... Sometimes they try to snuff the Rooster, but it'll never die. What they always say. Ripping all the roots out, I thought, 'Well, that could come in handy on the farm.'

I would assume. I got to call Jason. Sometimes he gets little video and I'll see if he had an extra guy. His son works with him in the business, sharp young guy. And Jason is actually one of my favorite auctioneers to listen to. We filmed him a couple sales for Machinery Pete TV. I was down January or February of this year. And a farm auction with like four or five Fendt tractors that sold through the roof. But hats off to Jason, another great sale Saturday in Benson, North Carolina. Now, you got me thinking about what this thing does. I think, Casey, you better bring the Rooster up to western Nebraska. I think you could get all kinds of uses out there. Peanuts, maybe?

Cuz I mean, so I'm looking up here... Actually, coming out your way, if we talk recent auction prices. I apologize, I'm fighting this cold. It's just driving me nuts. Out your way, our good friend Alex Kerr with Kerr Auction had a sale last Tuesday in Torrington, Wyoming. Now, for listeners, if you're not familiar with Alex Kerr, go to kerrauction.com. They are one of the fastest growing auction companies in North America. It's unbelievable what they've done in 2 years, he and his wife, Gina. They had their sale Tuesday with Tri Brothers Equipment consignment sale. Now, Alex texted me, I told you, Casey, in the morning before the sale, that Alex is... he's a central Illinois guy. He's pretty stoic like me. And he's like, 'Uh Pete, I'm kind of worried.' And he said, 'It's so dry out here. It's just so dry.' And I was like, 'Well, Alex, you got a great line. Just see how it goes.' Text me about an hour and a half later and he goes, 'Wow, check this out.' It's a '09 Stinger 6500 bale stack wagon. Which you know, we see a number of those around. They're good rigs. This thing had 53,000 miles on it. So, for 140,000 for an '09, that's 17 years old. And again, I hopped in machinerypete.com and I was like, 'Wow.' Let's look at 2010 and before models. And what you find is that's the highest auction price on a pre-10 model Stinger 6500 in exactly 15 years. You got to go back to the first week of April of '11 in Moses Lake, Washington. And one out there. Now, that was only 4 years old at the time. They sold an '07 model with like 11,000 miles on it for the same money, 140. And despite the dryness in Torrington, Wyoming Tuesday, you know, they sold that '09 model, 17 years old, for 140. Now, I suppose the same thing here. It's like, well, what does a new one cost? I guess I can't quote you that off the top of my head what a new Stinger 6500 bale stacker sells for, but I'm sure it's a lot more than 140k. So, just for fun here. What was that thing called?

If it's right, it's 170,000 bucks.

Yeah. And then see a Stinger, what was it, 6500? Uh yeah, 6500 '09 model. I've seen later model ones sold, you know, higher. But again, 17 years old.

340,000 if this is right.

Now, isn't that interesting? So, here you go. Super night nine. This was a phenomenal sale. I'll take that back. That is a... Based on a 2024 to 2026 market listings, a new or very low hour 2024 Stinger LT LTD 6500 bale stacker generally costs around 340,000. Mhm. Good place to start. Three, yeah, pushing towards 400k. Well, like you and I talked about a lot, Casey, in any market condition in agriculture, you know, the hard cash auction market, you saw it from years when you would track things on from the dealer side. There's always that dollar level. Yeah. You know, and right now it might be 200, low 200s, but here at 140, if a new one is 340 plus, when you get a super cherry one to open auction, you know, again, it makes that... it's just such a more palatable option than what that new number is.

I know. So, when I started doing our YouTube channel in 2009, I went out to up by Dodge City. Uh God, it must have been January of 2010 or something to film an auction, and it was kind of a custom hay guy. And I think he had a couple of them. And I hadn't seen them back here in Minnesota. Mostly.

I went out and uh... I got just... It might have been 2009 cuz I started our YouTube channel at the end of 2009. Those before iPhones. I just bought a little flip... They called them flip phones. I bought one for 99 bucks at Target. It had a pop-out jack, so pop the flip phone into your laptop and download the video. I remember that. I remember I told my wife, Jackie, as she's like, 'Where are you going?' And I was like, 'I'm going to go film like four auctions.' And I was working my way down to New Mexico. They used to be in... I don't know if they're still in business, Dickinson Auction. And I had a friend with the city of El Paso, a great guy who actually used to work with our friend Stacy Anthony. He knew Stacy cuz Stacy was like, you know, was like you, he's moving machinery all over the world back in the day. And so, my friend said, 'You got to come down to this auction. They auction this equipment in three languages on the border, Spanish and also German because there's a big Mennonite community just across the border in Mexico that would come up.' So, I go down with my little flip phone. I stopped in Dodge City. I filmed that auction. Make my way drive all the way down to New Mexico, put all these miles on the truck. Get down there. And it was so much fun. Remember I remember standing there and looking at the line of equipment. I'm like, 'What the hell is that?' They walk over there. And there's a row of 20 little washing machines, Maytags. And I don't know, you probably like 3 ft high. And I'm like, 'What the...' And some guy came up and he goes, 'Well, the Mennonites from across the border in Mexico, they love these things. And we can't get enough of them.' And so, when I was filming, again, to see an auction in Spanish and German, Mhm, was cool. We have so many Germans up here in the mid upper Midwest. I'm hoping someday you'll have to tag along when we do it, Casey, but if I've got a few friends in Europe, one in Ireland and a couple in Germany. I'm like, 'You guys, you find me a nice farm auction, okay? And we'll come over and film it for the TV show. And we'll watch an auctioneer in German just saw a way out of a 2-year-old deer or a JCB or something.' Yeah. Yeah. Wouldn't that be great? Yeah. It'd be fun. Hopefully we can do it. Yeah. Now, that'd be fun. I've been to Europe a few times, Eastern Europe mostly, and there's been the idea of taking something to auction is just absolutely foreign to a lot of people.

From our Facebook followers in Scandinavia. Young people in ag, and it's the same thing. They go, they just kind of wonder at, well, wow. In fact, I got a note from a guy in New Zealand the other day, and he said they just... he can't believe what our tractors sold for at auction. And like you said, 'Why do you have so many farm auctions?' It's just the culture is different. They just don't... They just operate differently there. Yeah. But I would like maybe Sweden. Maybe we could find a nice Swedish auction. A little Swedish auctioneer chant would be... I think ratings on Machinery Pete TV would skyrocket for that. Yeah, that would be... That'd be fun, too. That'd be a good time.

You know, that's interesting cuz this is kind of a relatively new shock to all of our system dealing with the question marks involved with the war here. Hopefully again, it'll all straighten out. It'll be good, but I wonder, what would you say, Casey, in terms of just say hypothetically, it kind of drags for say 6 to 9 months and it just... if you're a farmer and you're dealing with your equipment needs, to me, this added shock pressure, fuel, and fertilizer, to me would further push people into the used market mindset. Just to watch dollars. I mean, what's your take on that?

I think that's really sage advice, Casey, for two reasons. One is that I mean, just think about the 8R 340 stat we just were chewing on. It's already up 12.5% this year. Things aren't exactly rosy. And if we... okay, well, price of oil, la-la-la, it's, you know, sales of new are not going to be great for the next 6 months. So, we're talking about already that, you know, say not to be alarmist or whatever, but there's just no way around it versus 2 years ago that at the top of the funnel the late model used is tighter. And if our data would show for 36 plus years that that period you identified from planting to harvest has really... that's actually been I would say the best time to be a buyer. Mhm. To get value. Because since... well, you have to go since 2003 since the Bush tax cuts brought in the Section 179 year-end incentivizing investment, that whole thing. Auction values even in crappy years have gone up. Mhm. And they went up at the end of '25. So, if we're not selling any more new at all hardly for another 9 months, you're probably right. Again, this is... it's just math is what we're talking about here. And whatever your equipment needs are, to try and think it through so you aren't being reactive. Because again, we're just relaying what's happening out there, folks. And again, when that S670, I mean, I'm sorry. That's a big number for that machine. It really is, you know. That's, you know, that's not two grandsons that want to... that we're fighting over it. That's a 100k. That's just... this is what it is and that 8R 340's up 12.5% again. That's the breadcrumb trail of what's real out there now.