Today is Monday, March 30th, 2026. We are live from the TBPN Ultradome.
The temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
Let me tell you about ramp.com, baby. Time is money. Save both. Use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place. Let's pull up the linear lineup. We got Tay Kim coming on to give us the Nvidia update. He is, of course, the founder of Key Context, the Substack. Logan Bartlett's coming on from Redpoint. Been way too long since we had him on. Been probably over a year at this point, maybe nearly a year. But he drops one of the greatest market updates, slide decks, analyses. Very, very good. Tons of really interesting tidbits in there. And then we have a fantastic lightning round for you today. Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development. 70% of enterprise workspaces on Linear are using agents. So, lightning round. We got Ben Broca from Pula. Sam, founder of Granola.
On their one and a half billion dollar valuation. And then Brett Adcock.
What was your nickname for him again?
Brett Adcock. You had some nickname for him, right?
No. No, I didn't. Someone else.
Oh, you're on a first name basis, so you just call him Brett.
Hey, B. That makes sense. Hey, B. No, this will be interesting. He launched a Neil Lab last week.
Oh, yeah. That's right. That's right.
I hear the angels singing.
And then Andre from console joining.
Well, I've been addicted to social media lawsuits. I cannot get enough of these lawsuits. I keep reading about them, losing sleep.
You're potentially filing your own lawsuit against the lawyers that were coming after these social media.
Yeah. Yeah. So, there's actually a profile in the Wall Street Journal in the exchange this weekend, the lawyer who beat Meta and Google, and it goes into some of his addictive techniques that are driving jurors crazy across the country. Attorney Mark Laneir, he uses props.
What's more than props? He also uses parables. Okay. Parables, metaphors, axioms, all of the above. He moonlights as a preacher and it shows when he's taking on the world's most powerful companies. The 65-year-old came to court in downtown Los Angeles for closing arguments this month of one of the biggest trials of his career. Armed with a parable of leavened bread that feels like something that is designed to make it hard to rip yourself away from. Exactly. So, he knew he needed a simple way to show a jury that Meta's Instagram and Google's YouTube were designed to be addictive and were harmful to young people. So, the veteran plaintiff's lawyer from...
We just say he looks fantastic for 65.
He does look fantastic. And as much as you're joking, I do think he's doing important work and I do think there's a potentially really good outcome here that we'll go into. But we're still having some fun. So the veteran plaintiff's lawyer from Texas showed them two grocery items, cupcakes and tortillas. Social media, he told the courtroom, was like the baking powder that makes a cake rise, exacerbating the struggles of already vulnerable teens.
We have an interactor, an amplifier, something that blows it up. Laneir said, 'We have here social media that takes the vulnerable and goes after them in destructive ways. It's as easy as ABC.' So he's making the argument that social media is more like cupcakes than tortillas. Both contain flour. Both are carbohydrate loaded, but one is bigger than the other or puffier, I suppose. The simple image delivered with Laneir's slight draw helped convince a majority of jurors. On Wednesday, the ninth day of deliberation, the jury found that Meta and YouTube were negligent in a case that accused the companies of designing their apps to be addictive and harmful to teens. And there's some interesting images both of him walking into the courthouse with a large box of papers. Clearly very anti-tech movement there. He's saying, 'I reject technology. This cannot be stored digitally. I'm using paper,'
which I don't know, this seems a little bit risky because we've been addicted to the printed word in the past. So much so that we faced criticism from people that said, 'Hey, printing is unnecessary. You're not environmentally friendly,' but we were forced to adjust.
Maybe he can flip over to be our defense attorney when we are attacked.
There is a courtroom sketch showing Laneir questioning former TBPN guest Adam Mosseri, the head of Meta's Instagram. A jury ordered the company to pay $3 million each in compensatory damages and 3 million in punitive damages. So, I think it's 6 million across both firms, but it's split compensatory and punitive damages. And now, a now 20-year-old woman named Kaye whose last name was redacted in the case. She had testified that social media use that started when she was a child dominated her life for years and contributed to mental health issues including anxiety, depression, and body dysmorphia. Very, very sad situation. Very unfortunate for her, of course. In a statement, Meta said it disagrees with the verdict and plans to pursue an appeal. Reducing something as complex as teen mental health to a single cause risks leaving the many broader issues teens face today unaddressed. Not mutually exclusive, but of course that is a reasonable position for Meta to take. Google also put out a statement. What do you think?
They're like, 'We're not even a social media company. We're a VR company.'
No, no, no. Google said it misunderstands YouTube, which is a responsibly built streaming platform, not a social media site.
That's true. Got the wrong guy.
Yeah. I think of YouTube very much as in the same world as social media. Anyone can post, but it is severely lacking in some of the greatest features of social media sites. Like when you actually become a YouTuber, you start putting out content that like there is sort of a group of made men on YouTube, people that have ascended and they're now making content professionally and they are in conversation with each other and they might be reacting to each other's content. There are different communities. There's like the car YouTuber community and then there's the game show community and there's the business community and pretty quickly everyone sort of gets to know each other, but there's no DM feature. So even if I make a video...
Which is a good argument for it not being social media.
Yeah. Yeah. So, like, you know, we at this point have done the Colin and Samir show, but we don't really have a way, like we can go on to the Colin Samir YouTube channel and leave them a comment and they might see it if it's from the TVPN account, but we can't like just DM them and be surfaced to the top of the inbox. People have always wanted an inbox on YouTube.
Yeah, that's a huge feature request. It's insane because like it would be so cool to be able to see, okay, I got a DM from someone who has 100,000 followers and I can click on their profile and see, oh, they're like, you know, in the same niche, like maybe we'd want to work together. Maybe we want to collab on a video or do something else. Because they're like an established YouTuber, as opposed to everyone basically needs to flow over to Twitter or X and then DM there because the DM functionality is much more mature on it. The other thing Google has in this kind of position is that so much of the watch time on YouTube is happening on televisions, right? Something like 50%.
So they can make the argument that this is just modern television.
Yeah. So let's go through Laneir's career because the Wall Street Journal has some interesting backstory here. He says Laneir has built a career and fortune representing plaintiffs against corporate giants. He won one of the first major wrongful death trials against pharma company Merck over claims that the prescription anti-inflammatory drug Vioxx caused heart problems. He also won a $4.69 billion verdict in 2018 for women and their families who said Johnson & Johnson's asbestos-tainted talcum powder caused ovarian cancer. So I mean over his career it seems like he's done some very, very good work and has won some massive, massive settlements against big companies with broadly damaging products. So a lot to admire about his career here. The social media trial drew more scrutiny than he predicted before he joined the plaintiff's team last fall and was brought face-to-face with Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg. Suddenly Laneir was at the epicenter of...
I believe that Zuck is actually mewing in this picture.
If we can pull up this image, it does appear to be something along those lines. Suddenly, Laneir was at the epicenter of...
You agree, Tyler? Right. You can tell his cortisol is not spiking here.
That's true. That definitely seems, he seems calm, collected, but this is not his first time putting on a suit. This is not the first time he's been in court. Suddenly Laneir was at the broad epicenter of a broad public debate about social media and how people stay connected or are disconnected on platforms offering nearly endless content curated by algorithms. Quote, 'Nothing compared to this,' Laneir said, reflecting on the attention to the trial over oatmeal toast and a Coke Zero in a downtown Los Angeles hotel the morning after the victory. 'Nothing even remotely close.' And I think that's accurate because even though those previous settlements were huge, they weren't major. They didn't break through to the point where like I remember them vividly. Do you? No. No. Vioxx, it does not ring a bell. But this certainly will for a lot of people, especially in tech. Social media companies have largely been shielded from being held liable for third-party content on their platforms by Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act. At trial, Laneir had to focus on the platform's features, not the content, to make a case. And that's something that I want to talk about today and I wrote about in the newsletter. The trial was among the first among thousands of consolidated lawsuits filed by teenagers, school districts, and state attorneys against Meta, YouTube, TikTok, and Snap. More are scheduled for this year. TikTok and Snap settled the first case. A Christian who teaches Bible study classes to as many as 500 people at an evangelical church, Laneir turns a folksy courtroom demeanor honed over decades of trial work in Texas, now nationally. He's known for showing jurors hand-drawn road maps and illustrations on an overhead projector to guide them through his legal reasoning and evidence, including signposts and human figures that could have been sketched by a child, to visualize microscopic asbestos fibers in talcum powder. He brought a bale of hay into a courtroom and dropped a needle into the blades of grass. Oh, the blades of hay. Got it. Okay. Wow. Very, very interesting. Yeah, he likes props. That's it. When arguing for punitive damages against the tech company, Laneir held up a jar of 415 M&Ms to show how a $1 billion fine would be a fraction of Alphabet's $415 billion in shareholder equity. He needs a bigger jar because I think every tech company is five times larger now. He says he tries to avoid being flashy himself. He wears the same two unremarkable suits on rotation during a trial and then I go burn them. What? He burns his suits after. Is that a joke or he gives them away? I don't know.
I guess it's, I don't know, it's odd. Laneir graduated from college at 20 and is trained as a minister before going to law school at Texas Tech University, hoping to make enough money to support his preaching. He began gaining renown as a lawyer in an era when asbestos cases were swamping the US courts. He won a jury verdict of about $115 million in 1998 for 21 steel workers who felt ill after using machinery that contained asbestos. Laneir and his wife Becky met in high school debate class. They have five children and 12 grandchildren. Wow. Overnight success. They were known for years for their child-friendly Christmas parties at their estate of more than 35 acres near Houston, which has a model railroad that can seat 120 people. Okay, this guy's got to win. Oh, I have completely changed my position here.
We need a Mansion section article.
I think we have a direct line to him, by the way. We want him on the show.
Well, this... maybe we should go do a show from the model train.
Yes. I'm so ready to be convinced of his position. I wrote a whole piece about how I disagree with the result, but he's winning me over.
Disagree with his entire argument, but you're agreeing with his approach to life.
Yes. 100%, 100%. I feel like we're kindred spirits. It's amazing. So, the model railroad can seat 120 people. And guess what? He's got a menagerie.
This is goals. You need to be menagerie maxing in life. You need a menagerie.
The family pulled the plug on the party which featured up to 9,000 guests and performers including Miley Cyrus, Johnny Cash, and Dolly Parton, he said because it was too hard on the lawn. The guy cares about his grass too much. This is incredible. Inviting 9,000.
He's an environmentalist from the community. I mean, that's like the entire, I mean, Houston's a huge city, but that is so, so what a pillar of the community. This guy's a hero.
Laneir said the theme of his cases against major corporations is responsibility and integrity or lack of it. Tech billionaires don't need his help, Laneir said, but Kaye would not have anybody else. Faith is much the same way. God's there to try to help people who need the help. Two of Laneir's daughters who are lawyers were by his side during the trial. He joined the social media case in New York.
By the way, you keep saying Laneir. Is it Lenir or Lineer?
Lir. I think it's linear. Well, we'll figure it out. He has deep authentic...
I just don't want people to get confused with the system for modern.
Yes, it's not Lineer. It's Lenir, I think. Maybe it's Lanier. Maybe it's French. He's not a phony. What he does is not a performance. Even from Los Angeles, he posted short video selfies discussing Bible passages on YouTube. So, he's dogfooding the thing that he's suing. Yeah, let's switch gears to your piece.
I will take you through my counterargument, but first I'll tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents. And let me also tell you about Gemini. Gemini 3.1 Pro is here with a more capable baseline. It's great for super complex tasks like visualizing difficult concepts, synthesizing data into a single view, or bringing creative projects to life. So, last week, Brandon Gurell summarized the ruling this way. He said, 'In the case, the plaintiff's lawyer, Mark Laneir, argued that Meta and YouTube built digital casinos that use neurobiological techniques similar to those employed by slot machines.' The jury found that specific features of Meta and YouTube are designed to be addictive. And I want you to really hone in on these features. So, infinite scroll creates an environment where there are no natural stopping points. Algorithmic recommendation feeds use highly engaging content. Autoplay removes users' agency in choosing whether to watch the next video. Notifications pull users back in by exploiting their need for validation. IG beauty filters contribute to the plaintiff's body dysmorphia and features like the like button exploit users' biological need for social approval. Okay, so you got a bunch of features. You know this stuff. Everyone uses social media. We all know about this stuff. The question is like, are the features addictive or is the content addictive? Because social media platforms are of course protected from the content that is posted on them. Laneir's entire argument is predicated on it being the features, right?
And yeah, so, you know, we talked to Eric Goldman from Santa Clara University of Law and he was saying that like, yes, it's a $6 million settlement right now, but this could be huge. The direct quote was whether we will even have social media in the future, like this could be existential.
Yeah. And there's thousands of other cases like this kind of percolating, right? And so...
And it could turn into a class action. He's gotten six billion before. He could get 50 billion. I don't know. He could get a lot. And he's not like a 6 million guy. He's a six billion guy. And so this is the precursor and it's going further and whether it's a ton of different cases or one big one, like it's a big problem for the tech companies. So I thought it was an odd coincidence that we sort of had what I called the placebo-controlled trial for these exact features last week when Sora shut down. So, OpenAI's new social network Sora shut down. The reaction of the news was funny to watch because a lot of people were like, 'Yeah, I told you it was always bad,' but when it launched, it was exactly the opposite. Everyone was like, 'It's too good. We won't be able to look away. It's simply too good.' And Rune summarized this pretty well, I think yesterday, or I think it was yesterday. He said, 'Sora was peak moral panic. All of these breathless takes about making videos that are going to addict humanity and waste everyone's time. Meanwhile, we made some funny videos that were less funny as time went on. And AI slop is just one category among many on Instagram Reels. Don't worry so much about making videos that are going to blow up people's brains without making anything good. Worry about making anything good at all. The best Soras were up there with the best Reels and the humor relied significantly on the voice of the creator.' I completely agree. The funny Soras that I...
Yeah. Even the video we played last week of the cat on the porch.
Yes. That wasn't one-shot.
Yeah. The prompt was not 'make something that will retain users' and it wouldn't have been funny if the person hadn't been escalating the scene every new prompt and then stringing them together.
Yeah. And so, and he closes by saying, 'I know so many of you who are loudly concerned about this who won't update at all, who will remain pessimistic about humans and their ability to use tools.' And I said, so like, what do you make of these two situations? It feels a little bit like a placebo-controlled trial to me. Of course, like there's a lot more nuance here. This is like a high-level take, but Sora absolutely used all of the social media best practices or addictive and harmful neurobiological techniques if you want to use the court's language. Sora app was basically the same as TikTok, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, Snap in terms of UI and UX design. It had infinite scroll. It had algorithmic recommendations. It had notifications. It had a like button and it didn't have IG beauty filters, but like the whole thing is a filter because I could go in there and say, 'Make me look like a bodybuilder.' And it did a good job and I looked great in the videos. And so like it really checks all of the same boxes.
To try to match that every...
It gave me crippling body dysmorphia. Obviously, I dream for the day when I will look like my Sora avatar, my, what do they call it? Cameo. My cameo. No, but they really did use all the normal tools and that was for familiarity, but also because they're moving quickly and the key innovation was not the UI design or the fact that it's vertical or algorithmic feeds. Like we are in 2026. We're not in 2014 when we're launching Vine. So the key insight was purely AI generated content. And it didn't work. Like the features were not addictive because the people that downloaded Sora did not become addicted because the content was a little bit too sloppy. Right.
Yeah. Well, it was just one type of content and it turns out people like a broad selection and they like variability. They might want to see, you know, video of someone skiing and then some slop and then something their friend made and then some health content.
And it's really the collection of that. The other thing I think that seems very obvious is if it was the product itself and the features that were addicting, there would be so many social media apps that were effectively thriving. There would be a bunch of Instagrams. And this is where I get to the cigarette comparison. So, there's a bunch of comparisons to the cigarette industry and I think it's really worth revisiting like what is addictive about cigarettes because there are some people that say like it's an oral fixation, like you just want to put like a stick in your mouth so you should like switch to carrots. Like that is like maybe like 1%.
Some could argue it's an addiction to looking cool.
There you go. But it is the nicotine. It is the nicotine. And that's why you do have a long tail of like 50 different cigarette brands and a thousand different e-cigarette brands and nicotine gum is addictive. Nicotine pouches are addictive. Nicotine pouches are addictive because they all contain the nicotine. And if the court is asking us to believe that the like button, the algorithmic feed that is addictive, then we should see addiction-like results from any app that implements that because that is the case for all nicotine-containing products. They all addict people. I mean there are less addictive formats in general.
How many apps have you tried or TestFlights over the years that had any of these features that you used for 30 seconds?
Exactly. Because what actually keeps you coming back is the content which is created by the users and...
And so you want Laneir to go after every single person that has ever posted anything on Instagram and jail them. Correct.
No. No. I think that some creators do create very compelling content. Some of that content is amazing. Some of that content is great. Some of that content is bad. There's a very, very wide range. You can go to truly amazing educational content. I'm thinking of like 3Blue1Brown, this math channel that does visualizations of math concepts on YouTube. It's incredible. Andrej Karpathy's YouTube videos. There's so many interesting educational history shows, podcasts, there's so much content that...
Tyler got addicted to that video. Are you destined to deal? And we kept saying that's a great video. He kept saying that's why you have a tie on today. He called me on Friday night and said, 'Why is this video 20 hours long?' Cuz he on loop. Yeah, he was just looping. That makes sense. That makes sense.
So yeah, but I mean, it is true like I think the court is correct and Laneir is correct that some people go on social media and make horrible content that depresses people that land on it. And it goes without saying that social media companies do have an enormous responsibility to manage recommendation feeds responsibly and route people in tough situations to helpful resources. So Google already does this very, very well. If you type in specific keywords that seem like you're in a mental health crisis, like it will not give you search results. It will give you a phone number for someone to call and they know when to route the right people to that. And I do believe that all the tech platforms are thinking about this and implementing this. Maybe they need to be more aggressive. I think that the big thing that most people can agree on is parental controls here. And I think that that's like a much easier middle ground here. And just in general, one other nice meet-in-the-middle option is potentially just getting tech companies to give users and parents in particular, but users broadly more control over their experience. So, it's possible to disable algorithmic feeds, endless scroll, the like button with browser plugins on mobile web, but it's a much worse experience because you have to load it on mobile web, which isn't the actual app, and it's slower and there's a lot of things that are just kind of janky and don't load as well. But having those like in the settings to just say like, I know some creators on Instagram can turn off the like counter. Have you ever seen this? So you can see someone post an image and it'll just have a like button there, but it doesn't have like 5,000 likes because the creators were getting like, you know, annoyed by, oh, this one.
Well, to be clear, that's because people didn't want to post because they were worried something wouldn't do well.
Yeah. And the world would know that their content wasn't engaging or something like that, right? So that effectively is just an incentive. I don't believe that that was done for the mental health of the creators.
No, that was done to encourage more people to post.
I don't know. I don't know. I mean I'm sure like my mental health as a social media creator was at an all-time high before I understood the metrics because I was just like, 'Oh, 300 views. I'm famous. This is amazing. 300 people sat down and watched my 10-minute video essay about a dying VR technology or something like that.' It's like, I've done it. 300 people sat down. It's like I'm a business school professor, basically, you know? Yeah. But then eventually you get and you're like, wait, like the last video got 400,000 views. Why does this one have 375,000 views? I'm a failure. So, like there is a little bit of that, but I hear you.
Yeah. But the metrics are still available to the creators. Yeah. Yeah, you can. The creator...
But you can turn them off with a Chrome plugin. You actually can. There's some creators that do this. But anyway, like surfacing those in apps, I think that will help users feel like they're in more control. And realistically, I don't think it will be super damaging to any of the platforms because most people won't opt into that, but certain people will. And in general, it'll just like increase public perception broadly. We've already seen this with a lot of the LLM companies where like you can go in, you can fine-tune and add a custom prompt and kind of talk to it about what you like and don't like, change the personality. I think people have been asking for that for a long time, surfacing it. It seems like a win-win. And so something along those lines seems in the cards. Anyway, we can debate this, but first, let me tell you about Sentry. Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast. That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working. And let me also tell you about Plaid. Plaid powers the apps you use to spend, borrow, and invest. Securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud, and improve lending now with AI. So, do you have any other pushback on my take?
Tyler had some pushback. Should we go to him?
Let's go to Tyler. What do you think?
I mean, yes. So, I guess there was a few things. I mean, one thing is that like...
Not enough props, right? Too many analogies, too many parables.
Like, I think you can say that like, okay, yeah, it's the content that's the problem. But like the content is like kind of downstream of the features, right? Because you didn't see like short-form video...
The medium is the message.
Yes. And so it is possible for me to create a platform that incentivizes addictive content and that's like the retention curve. So retention editing makes it more addictive. You become addicted to the content, but it's because of the features.
Yeah. So I think that's like broadly the steel man that you can make for like Laneir's position. Yeah. And then I mean there's other stuff I think on like just the nicotine analogy we were talking about this like okay so you have nicotine like broadly and then below nicotine you have like smoking which is like definitely very bad for you and then you have like, you know, pouches or stuff like this which is like probably less bad like it's just nicotine there's no tobacco so like maybe this is like less bad and so maybe the equivalent is like, you know, the cool snowboarding videos on Instagram are like the cleaner nicotine stuff and then the like...
Still addictive but not harmful.
Yes. And then there's like you're going to try and do a double cork 1260 and eat it, get smoked into the ground.
But then on the other side you have like the very graphic stuff on Instagram that like we don't want people to see and that's like the cigarettes, that's like going to give you cancer whatever.
I mean I guess this is still in agreement with what you're saying but like...
Well this is what nicotine... if you're under 18, which was like there was an addictive component and then there was a carcinogenic component and they needed to sort of separate those out and where we landed as a society was like the addictive component is acceptable for the, it's suitable for the protection of public health according to the FDA. And so they are approving new products that are addictive but not carcinogenic. And so you would imagine even in the most strict ruling where every new social media platform needs to be approved, you could potentially use all of those addictive features as long as the content was not carcinogenic inside that app.
And that would be like a new nicotine gum basically.
Yeah. Like basically I'm saying like right now if you're under 18 you can still like there's like parental controls and you can't be under 13 or whatever but like it's like very poorly enforced like you can actually see a lot of the bad stuff if you're under 18 on screen or whatever.
So like directionally like there you know you can be against the ruling of this.
But like the parental controls that people are asked for are still like very much not there.
Yeah. Yeah. No, that makes sense.
So I think I have a potential solution. Let's pull up this image of a cigarette package in Europe.
Let's pull up the hardest challenge.
While we pull it up, let me tell you about Okta. Okta helps you assign every agent a trusted identity. So you get the power of AI without the risk. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. And let me also tell you about Turbo Puffer.
Build from first principles in object storage. Fast, 10x cheaper, and extremely scalable. Okay, so this is like typical cigarette packaging in Europe. John, you probably wouldn't know this because you're very American and you're very loyal and you avoid overseas trips as much as possible. So on any given cigarette pack in Europe, you're going to see like a really terrible image, this woman apparently is coughing up blood.
And so I think what a potential solution that Meta could do is as soon as you open Instagram...
It makes an AI generated image based on the last picture of you that you posted on social media and it just makes you look terrible.
And it says like warning, like social media will destroy you and then you can scroll past.
It could potentially show you a tech neck. Are you familiar with tech neck?
Yes. Yes. It's just a crazy image of you with tech looking at your phone.
And then so you can scroll past it, but every time you open the app, it's a new image. It's a new image of you looking the worst, wasting your life away.
Are the AI labs lobbying to get this?
All right, we can put this away.
Are the AI labs lobbying to get that removed because I think most of their timelines suggest that lung cancer will be cured by AI any day now. So potentially you could start smoking again. Has anyone come out as pro-smoking? I don't think Anthropic's come out with their anti-Anthropic, you know, has the joke that they make with journalists. They kind of got caught on anti-sunscreen.
If AI is going to cure liver cancer...
It's game on. It's game on. It's game on. You can drink as much as you want because that's because you get liver disease if you drink too much. And so if AI, if I'm going to be able to vibe code an mRNA vaccine to cure my liver cancer, I'm going to be oozing for sure. It's the only rational thing to do.
Yeah. Well, this is also kind of like when companies are saying like, 'Oh, yeah. Work-life balance is super important.' So then their competitors will, you know. Yeah. Anthropic should tell people to start drinking a lot because AGI is going to cure liver.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. This is good. This is good. Okay.
Let's revisit the Jetsons.
Okay. Revisit the Jetsons. I'm sure you've seen the Jetsons.
Where's my flying car and three-hour workday? So, I'm going to be learning about the Jetsons. John is going to be revisiting.
The 1960s version of the future is way more fun than our reality, but when it comes to innovations, we're catching up.
Let's see. Nicole says, 'I recently spent a weekend doing deep investigative research into future technologies. I binged the Jetsons in my sweatpants. For the uninitiated, the forgetful. This space-age family sitcom features George and Jane Jetson living the American dream in an apartment in the sky with their two children, dog Astro and robot maid Rosie. The show is set in 2062, a century ahead from its original 1962 air date. It's full of fantastical inventions such as flying cars, dinner-generating machines, and K9 treadmills complete with fire hydrants. The upbeat vibe is markedly different from the apocalyptic, at times murderous sci-fi of today. The 1960s were full of optimism about what the 21st century...
would bring. And some of it actually has come true. While we've still got a few decades before the Jetson family is meant to arrive, I dug into some of the show's technological hallmarks and determined how close we already are. Uh, video calling, she says. Absolutely. In lieu of a home phone, the Jetsons had a video phone. The show's creators couldn't fathom mobile devices, but they were spot on about video calling.
Now, to be clear, we are still working on with one of our business associates like a video call that doesn't stop halfway through.
Uh, and just cancel, but...
So, the Jetsons didn't predict the free tier of Zoom.
Free tier of Zoom.
Yeah. The free tier of Zoom was not considered in the Jetsons, where you couldn't fathom it. You're clearly going to go long on the meeting and Zoom's just like goodbye.
It's over.
It's over. It kicks everyone out with no notice.
Is that a new thing? I feel like it used to do a countdown.
I think it did a countdown, too, but now it's just...
Now they're just like, 'We want to embarrass the host.'
Embarrassed.
The plus tier is going to blow.
So, in the Jetsons, they could even create deepfakes to stand in for them on camera. That's cool.
That's cool. I didn't realize that.
FaceTime's got on that. You know, the other thing they haven't cracked with FaceTime is like if you FaceTime a group of people...
Yeah.
Like most of the people won't even get a notification and don't know that it's happening.
So, we haven't cracked the notification part of...
This is good. Read this next line. When George secretly attended a robot football game, his simulacrum told Jane he had to work late. He's like using a deepfake to lie to his wife.
This is so 60s.
Do not do this.
Do not do this. This is dystopia.
Flying cars. It's not all optimism up over here.
Flying cars and travel tubes. Sort of. There isn't much walking in Orbit City. A conveyor belt brings George from bed to the bathroom to get to and from his classroom. Elroy jets through a series of air tubes called the school homing network.
When the wrong child shows up at the Jetsons' home, Jane sends him back with the push of a button. And they also use personal vehicles, though ones that typically fly. George commutes in a glass dome saucer that folds into a briefcase, man.
We're pretty far from there. We do have helicopters, but they're very expensive. I always fight people on the flying cars don't exist thing because like we do have helicopters and some people get to use those, but they are not nearly cheap enough. But we got to get them way down.
Here in the actual future, we're still tooling around on pavement-pounding automobiles. A version of flying cars, however, is very real. It's called an eVTOL. Look at this. Pivotal's Blackfly is a solo-piloted aircraft free to operate in unrestricted airspace. An upgraded version called the Helix can be yours for 190k. You don't even need a pilot's license. That's like pretty close, but I mean I would still say like we are not near the flying car because they're just not like there are way less flying car rides than Waymos for example. So we're just not right there. Uh, push-button jobs almost. George works as a digital index operator at Spacely Space Sprockets for approximately three hours a day, three days a week. As a button pusher, he makes enough to support a family of four, even though the majority of his day is spent with his feet up on his desk.
Okay, they basically nailed this. There's some people out there that are basically button pushers right now. Vibe coding.
Yeah.
TBD on the revenue side. True. But...
Working three hours a day, three days a week. You know, we work three hours a day, five days a week. And uh maybe the future's three just Monday, Wednesday, Friday streams. We can live the Jetsons' future. We work three hours.
That'd be devastating for us.
Yeah. Until then, we'll be working.
Space colonization. Nope.
Yeah. They live above Earth...
With houses built on tall stilts. I like that. Uh, to avoid the planet's environmental inconveniences. The stilts can rise above any inclement weather and space itself isn't out of reach. In a classic episode, Elroy goes to an asteroid on a school field trip. We're not quite there. Musk had preached of populating Mars, but now his focus is turned closer to the moon. Meanwhile, an interplanetary space race between the US, China, Russia, UAE, and the European Space Agency is well underway. Robot maids. Not exactly, but we're getting much closer there.
It's funny that Brett Adcock's coming on today. Yeah. And he's working on the flying car.
Yeah. He's working on the robot maid.
Working on the robot maid.
He doesn't have a space thing yet.
His new lab is basically like a... but you know, seems like a button pusher.
Gadget.
Gadget-induced pain. Yes. And now for the show's biggest oversight. No touchscreens. There are lots of visual displays, but they're primarily operated by dials, levers, and other physical controls. We got some levers back there in the studio. Uh, while the show may not have anticipated touchscreens, it nailed a key side effect of constant use of gadgets. Repetitive motion injuries. Orbit City is full of buttons and overworked fingers are a running gag on the show. Uh, Jane regularly does digit workouts and complains that her pointers are sore. Here in 2026, office workers often suffer from texting thumb after scrolling through endless feeds and tech neck after craning down to look at mobile devices. And don't get me started on my strained hand with carpal tunnel syndrome from all the clicking. 36 years and counting. We may not be living as exceptional a future as the Jetsons, but we've still got three and a half decades to catch up. By then, I will be twice as old as I am now. I've already witnessed the dawn of high-speed internet, the iPhone, and generative AI. How many tech revolutions will we experience in another 36 years? By the time we hit the show's 2062 deadline, maybe we will finally live in space or make our current planet more habitable and make a comfortable living on a nine-hour work week. Tyler, what do you think? Predict your timelines for 2062. Will we get space colonization?
How do you define space colonization?
Living not on the Earth, above the Kármán line, for like that's your primary residence, like more than half the year.
How many people do it? Like just you can do that, like anyone can do that.
Yes. Anyone with like a... if you can afford like an apartment for a few thousand or like a house that's above $500,000 in America, you can choose to live in space. So I would assume like a population of millions.
It probably depends on like the industry that is chiefly, you know, benefited from people living there.
Okay.
Big news. Sean Frank is in the chat. He says, 'I'm here, guys.' H-E-A-R. So he's saying I... he's trying to signal that he's listening.
I am here.
To you, Tyler, and to you, John, coming in. Uh, let's read him some ads since he's here. Let's tell him about Restream. One live stream, 30-plus destinations. If you want to multistream, Sean, go to restream.com. And you know what we got to tell him about? We got to tell him about AppLovin. Profitable advertising made easy with axon.ai. Sean, get access to over 1 billion daily active users and grow your business today.
Andrew Reed says, 'The faster technology progresses, the harder it gets to print something in the office.' We have experienced this. It's very true. Aaron from Box says, 'Reed's law. I know you may have wanted a better law, but I don't make the rules.'
Yeah, it's very, very difficult. Apple has just like never done the printer. I think for environmental reasons. I'm not exactly sure, but like there's never been like, oh, the gold standard, the Tesla of printers, just like the one you get and it does what it wants. It just does everything flawlessly and it's at that like, you know, 99% reliability. Uh, we've had a pretty good run with our printers, but uh, we're always in the market for new printers. So there's more. We are looking for a new printer right now for a special project. Uh, anyway, let me tell you about Cognition. They're the makers of Devin, the AI software engineer. Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team. Um, what I hate most about technology in hotel rooms. Jordi, I want your take on tech in hotel rooms. I want to know about your experience when you walk into a hotel room. The Wall Street Journal says, 'When you book a hotel room, you can count on some things like shampoo, a hot shower, some way to get a cup of coffee. But a stress-free technology experience? No way. Not even with basic technology you find just about anywhere like TV, Wi-Fi, and outlets for your devices. Unless you carry a suitcase full of gadgets, cables, and adapters, you're risking every kind of tech frustration.' Did you know that Ben Thompson carries a special device that acts as a Wi-Fi repeater when he travels? So, when he goes to a hotel, he logs into... Yeah, this is amazing. He logs into the hotel Wi-Fi, I believe, or the plane Wi-Fi through that device and then all of his devices connect to that automatically. And he'll bring like a Fire Stick so he'll be able to watch TV shows and his laptop and his phone. Everything automatically syncs to that device and it like reroutes it. Thought that was a very interesting thing that uh he's clearly optimized a lot. He's like a huge uh what is it? Uh like a gearbag guy. Like he has all the wires like dialed as I would expect.
I usually forget to bring a charger.
Hotels are missing out on a fundamental truth. In a world where so much of our work, travel, and relationship experience is shaped by technology, the quality of a hotel's tech service is core to what it's like to stay there. Give me a hotel room that lets all that tech fade into the background so that I can focus on my trip. But no, here's what you usually get instead. TV muddle. I suspect I've logged more hours troubleshooting hotel TVs than I have watching programs on hotel TVs. Okay, there's a bit of a retro charm in a TV that flips on and instantly tunes to a live network broadcast. But in the streaming age, I'm just as likely to crave a little quality time with Netflix, Disney Plus, or Apple TV. Many hotels have caught on to this reality by offering some sort of streaming option, but they approach this in so many different ways. You never know what you're going to find or what tech you'll need to make it work. Needy Wi-Fi is another one. Most hotels I've visited recently seem to have figured out that charging extra for Wi-Fi makes about as much sense as charging extra for a better toilet. Everyone needs to get online. So, you might as well build it into the price of the hotel room. So, now that we've taken that great leap forward, why are we still forcing people to log into the network not just once per day, but over and over again, once per device each and every day or often several times a day? It isn't unusual for me to log into hotel Wi-Fi 20 or 30 times a day. I think you're doing something wrong. Honestly, honestly, I don't... This doesn't resonate with me at all.
You're fine.
The only thing I want from a hotel...
Yeah.
Is to be able to order room service...
Without calling someone.
Okay.
That's like the only thing. And hotels miss on that. Yeah.
For the most part.
Like if you have a little iPad or you could even order on the TV app...
That would be amazing. And you get like a Domino's pizza tracker type thing. That's all I want. I feel like they kind of deliver on everything else and I don't watch...
I was listening to, I think it was George Hotz, was explaining how he ordered room service in a hotel he was staying at and he vibe-coded an app that interacted with the ordering service so that he didn't have to talk to them and it basically like read the entire menu and then like created like a voice agent to call or like reverse-engineered the API of the ordering menu and he was able to order by command line just like checking into a hotel. Time to build a CLI. It's truly the future. I love it. But it is. And uh you know who else is vibe coding these days? Garry Tan. Ben Hilac has a joke here. He says the year is 2027. Garry Tan has just crossed 1 billion lines of code per day. Water to three-year-old Californian towns were diverted in order to cool his locally ran LLMs. Riots erupt and protesters demand answers to one single question. What is he building?
We got to have GT on.
Yeah, I can't wait.
Let's get Garry on.
We got to get Garry on. We got to know what Garry is building. Uh, people are joking about this because what was the latest stat? It was something like uh 80...
78,000, 78 lines of code...
Per day, I think on Garry's List.
On Garry's List.
Which is his blog.
It's a blog. And he's built blogs before, like he's built these sites, but uh you know I guess like with all the testing suites and packages and mobile optimization, I don't know. I can't imagine the volume of code that will be generated when he creates a mobile app for it. It's going to be, you know, trillions of tokens going into that. Anyway, uh let me tell you about Labelbox. RL environments, voice, robotics, evals, and expert human data. Labelbox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams. Sam says, 'I remember when this was announced, but didn't fully appreciate the size. That's a hell of a cluster. The Department of Energy will basically be a frontier AI company.' NVIDIA is collaborating with Oracle and the Department of Energy to build the US Department of Energy's largest AI supercomputer for scientific discovery. The Solstice system will feature a record-breaking 100,000 Blackwells and support the DOE's mission of developing AI capabilities to drive technological leadership across US security, science, and energy applications. Another system, Equinox, will include 10,000 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs expected to be available in 2026. Both systems will be located at Argonne and will be interconnected by NVIDIA networking and deliver a combined 2,200 exaflops of AI performance.
We've talked about nationalization before. We haven't talked about privatization. We could potentially spin this out, take it public. There's an option here.
So I was interested in this. I looked, this is going to be like somewhere around like a quarter of a gigawatt equivalent of 100,000 Blackwells.
Half a Meta campus. I think Meta is working on 500 megs.
Yeah, I think I mean Hyperion, like the end state is like I think a gigawatt or more, right?
More, more, but that's like the first big jump for them. But the default Meta campus I believe is around 500 megs.
Cisco to acquire Restaurant Depot.
Not our Cisco. Not.
Sysco to acquire Restaurant Depot for $29.1 billion.
Before we take you through this, let me tell you about the real Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless real-time experiences and new value with Cisco. There's only one Cisco in our hearts.
Uh, this one's important. This is Sysco with an S.
I... I dislike Sysco.
Why? Because every time...
I find it a very frequent experience where there's a new restaurant coming to my area. I'm excited about it. They invest...
A million, two million dollars in building out this incredible space. Looks great.
And then you eat there for the first time and you can tell that they're just sourcing like Sysco.
Interesting.
Uh, I'm not going to say...
Yeah.
Slop, but uh the food quality is not great. And then it's like why did you put all this energy into making a beautiful space and then you're just, you know, chefing up generic food. Doesn't make any sense to me. But um I believe the founder of Restaurant Depot... Look...
I think I saw it somewhere.
In the Jetsons, they had dinner generating machines. Dinner generating machines. Where, how do you think that's going to happen?
Travis Palnick built this. Isn't this cloud kitchens?
Yeah. Uh, no, no, no. Uh, the dinner generating machine or Sysco, because Sysco...
Dinner generating machine.
Yeah. Yeah, that's basically it. But it's all part of a pipeline.
The founder of Restaurant Depot who just sold for 29 billion.
Uh, was born in 1932.
94.
He's still kicking.
I think we should hit the gong for him.
Let's do it.
Uh.
Congratulations on that.
Great to finally get a solid.
It's never too late. So, if you're 93...
I can buy that sports car.
Finally. Finally.
Yeah, that is a true overnight success. Congratulations to him. Um, excited. I mean, you know, we got to get food to people. People are hungry. There's some good things. You know, maybe they stock some raw milk and you're on board then. You know, who knows?
Before we play the next video, let me tell you, every day is a fight between the advertisers and the viral videos. Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web app servers, databases, and more, while Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security. And then we can play this video.
We're heading over to Japan.
Yes, this is the key sport that we will all be picking up in 2026. This is going to be the hottest thing in San Francisco with the hills and the office chair.
Office chair racing league. So look at the speed and the technicality there. It's incredible.
This athlete says the corner once controlled me. Now I control it.
I think I got... I think I got something.
You have quite a bit of leverage.
Yeah, with the legs.
With the legs.
I think I got a build for office chair.
The six-year transformation is crazy. I mean, this guy is incredibly quick.
It lost me.
And we need to bring this to the US.
Lost me. Let's go over here.
We need to bring this to the US.
Chair racer Mura going around the Devil's Hairpin.
The Devil's Hairpin.
All right. So, uh, Tyler, what is happening on X in Japan? You break it down.
Break it down.
Uh, yeah. I mean, I don't know all the internals, but it seems like Nikita's been posting about this, but I think, you know, they basically introduced like all of Japan Twitter onto like normal Twitter.
Oh, because of translation.
Yes. But I mean, there's been translation for a while. Um, but I don't know, like for some reason this weekend like half of my timeline was just like Japanese posts, uh, all about America, about how much they love barbecue, that, you know, they respect the cowboy aesthetics and all these things.
Cool. I didn't know they were.
And we need to figure out how and why over 50% or something like that of Japan is a weekly active user of X, which is just crazy. They have great posts.
Yeah. So, let's pull up.
Wait, wait, wait. This is a little bit of an update, like narrative violation, because that's a narrative violation. I know...
That's a narrative violation.
Because when Grok went viral, everyone was like, 'Oh, it's good at anime. It's big in Japan.' And it was at the top of the Japanese app store. But it appears that Japan's just using Twitter broadly. Elon, they just like the app. And that's like where they have conversations, which is very cool. It's a narrative violation.
Let's go to...
Let's pull up this first post.
This is hilarious.
And it is pizza.
And this is the translation from Grok.
When I saw this quote, 'pizza topped with a pizza in America,' I thought there's no way we could beat these guys. This is... This is an amazing... This is... I've never seen...
There's so many layers. There's actually one, two, three, four layers of pizza. I'm going to make this. I feel like this would be a smash hit in my house.
This is... This is quite...
This is peak performance. Peak performance. We got to... This may be for lunch today. Let's get some peak...
This post, which in Japan...
Or I guess now everywhere, got 93,000 likes. The translation from Grok is: 'I like this photo of American men and meat. Someday I'd like to join in on this in person.'
It's just some guys cooking a whole bunch of steaks. That's a lot of meat. Wow. That's a lot of food. They're having a big barbecue in Sassibo's dining establishment.
Someone else says somebody's just, I guess an American, is posting their grocery haul and someone says, 'The amount is way too much. As expected.'
As expected. We have a brand over here in America. We do things this particular way. Hello Japan. We love your fascination with our barbecue. Here is me buying half a cow's worth of meat for our family. We store it in a big freezer in our garage. I actually have heard about this. Buying in bulk obviously is more economical, but uh hilarious ratio by uh Dr. Nicholas. 'The amount is way too much as expected.' What else is going on in Japan? Take me through. Uh, someone else says, 'In Sassibo's dining establishment, it's common to spot US military personnel enjoying their meals with lively enthusiasm. One day at a restaurant, I came across a group that reached an oddly intense level of excitement just upon seeing bacon.' That's incredible. I love it. Let me tell you about Lambda. Lambda is the superintelligence cloud building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands. And let me also tell you about ElevenLabs. Build intelligent real-time conversational agents. Reimagine human-technology interaction with ElevenLabs. Uh, in fundraising news, Physical Intelligence is in talks to raise $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation.
I need to know why is Jeff Bezos here besides the fact that he looks fantastic in the tux.
Uh, he might put in some money. Oh no, no. The company has previously raised more than $1 billion in capital from investors including Jeff Bezos and Alphabet's independent growth fund CapitalG. So you could have put uh Peter Thiel because Founders Fund is in. You could have put uh Lightspeed, is it Divesh? Put or... but uh seems to get the viral attention. So, uh, but very good news. We actually interviewed both the co-founders of Physical Intelligence, both Lachy and Karol, uh, this last year and they don't do a lot of media, so it's an interesting little segment. We spent maybe 20 minutes with them and uh you should go back and listen to it because uh it's a very interesting insight into the business that they're building, which I think a lot of people, you know, they're not a noisy firm. They're not a noisy company that's like posting vibe reels and going and picking fights all the time. So there isn't that much coverage of Physical Intelligence. But like if you just look at the traction, look at the open source contributions, the data, the fundraising, like clearly something is happening there. And so I think it's worth digging in and paying attention to if you're...
Last night Bill Ackman hit the timeline.
Whoa. I didn't know. He said, 'Some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the mainstream media. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the US and the world, and we have potential for a large peace dividend. One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. Ignore the bears.' And he says, 'And Fannie Mae and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10x and it could happen soon.' And of course, Jared Kushner comes in and says X.com, the market manipulation app, uh, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are up 42% and 37% as of this morning. I think they've actually dipped back down a little bit. Uh, but Justin says, 'Posting your opinion on a public website is not market manipulation.' JT says, 'Don't ruin the tweet.'
Yeah, it's not market manipulation. Uh, it doesn't seem like he has any inside information. I don't know. Does he even have a position? Isn't that disclosed in his filings? I'm not exactly sure. Uh, I would take every recommendation from a Twitter poster, uh, every piece of financial advice with a grain of salt, but uh this one certainly turned out to be uh some sort of pump going on. And I did dig into this. Uh, somebody asked Grok like, 'Hey, break it down.' Like what is actually going on here with uh Fannie and Freddie? They generate $25 billion in stable annual net income from guaranteed fees, low credit losses outside crises. Uh, they're still in 2008 conservatorship and the stock trades for a total market cap of $10 billion. So there's a world where you're sort of buying maybe, I don't know exactly how aggregated this is, but maybe it's like $25 billion of cash flow at some point uh for $10 billion. That feels like a very good deal. Get paid back in four months, five months. Um, but of course there are a whole bunch of other uh political...
And of course he does own uh Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in his uh Pershing Square portfolio. Well...
But uh again, not illegal to share your opinion.
Yeah. Well, there are some uh not everything is up. Mike Zakari shares the current Mag 7 plus drawdowns from 52-week highs. Nvidia is down 21%, Google's down 22%, Microsoft down 36%, Apple's down 14%, Amazon 23%, Meta 34%, Tesla 28%. Uh, and many others have drawn down significantly. Fortunately, we have the perfect person to ask about what's going on with Nvidia because we have Tae Kim in the Restream waiting room. Before we bring him in, let me tell you about Console because Console builds AI agents that automates 70% of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant access, instant resolution for access requests and password resets. And let me also tell you about Vanta. Automate compliance and security because Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform. And without further ado, let's bring Tae Kim in to the TVP Ultra. Tae Kim, how are you doing?
For taking the time to come chat with us in...
Congratulations on the launch of your business.
Yes.
Thank you. I mean, it's been really gratifying that first day. You never know who's going to show up. Totally. I was like maybe 15 subscribers or 20 subscribers, but like hundreds of people showed up, tons of billionaires and tech founders. It's insanely gratifying.
Yeah, it's great. Uh...
Incredible.
So, uh, is it over for Nvidia? They're down 21% we just read since the 52-week high. Is it doom and gloom? Is it over?
No. I mean, I think I was on last December and the stock has semis and chips that's gone up and now they're back down to where they were in December. The chip sector's flat on the year. Nvidia is down 10%. And it reminds me a lot about a year ago.
Everyone was freaking out about DeepSeek, that super efficient models were going to destroy AI compute. There will be a huge compute glut and then everyone freaked out about Trump's tariff wars in preparation day and this year seems very similar to that almost. It's like Groundhog Day.
We have fears over AI capex. People think that it might be the peak and then we have the Iraq war and uh one of these things is oil up here.
Iran. Easy to get them mixed up. They happen so...
Feels like the same thing over.
Yeah.
But um...
Sorry to distract. We wanted to throw... we wanted to...
We wanted to show respect.
We wanted to show respect...
To a real podcaster.
I mean it's very similar to Iraq. That's...
These are great. Uh, but in a $100 oil, this stuff is unsustainable and probably okay. So, because when I like the DeepSeek analogy and I feel like the market half digested the agentic coding uh narrative and the Catrini article, whether you thought it went too far, it was too hypothetical, like clearly the markets did react and a lot of names sold off. But in a world where you believe that narrative, you would think that Nvidia would be going up. But you're saying that there are other factors at play that are sort of uh tamping down the excitement in the market broadly.
I mean there's no doubt. Just like tariffs a year ago, Nvidia had a 30% drawdown when their business was actually flying, actual fundamental of the business. I think the same thing is happening here with...
Things will eventually subside. Oil can't be $100 forever and Trump will probably backpedal in the next few weeks ahead of the Trump...
So, let's recap a few of the key stories around Nvidia. We just came off of GTC and there's a lot going on uh at the company. I mean, it's a huge company. Uh, maybe it'd be good to start with just uh next generation chips, changes to strategy, what people are actually buying. Maybe that means uh Grace CPU standalone sales or the development with the Groq partnership. What's sticking out just on the actual AI product side to you that you're most excited about?
Well, inference demand is exploding driven by the AI agents, agentic coding assistants. Um, when I met with uh Ian Buck, I met with dozens of uh engineers at Meta, Google, Nvidia and all of them are seeing crazy uh inference demand and AI compute shortages. So across the board, people are in crazy clamoring need for AI.
And we're... I mean we're... Yeah. You're seeing that from talking to engineering leaders at big tech companies, but we're also seeing it from vibe coders who are just on X and Twitter and talking about how they're hitting rate limits and they're subsidizing. They have multiple plans and they actually shift around from one model provider to another just to make sure that they're getting the tokens they need to build whatever they're building. And you see the tweets like people are like um...
Building uh bots to pick up any kind of B200 GPU that can... that they're waiting like weeks and months or whatever.
Like sneaker bots but for NeoCloud.
That's crazy.
Um, and the great thing is Jensen, you know, he's very prescient. He probably saw this demand months away. He locked up all the supply agreements for memory, co-ass, you know, connectors ahead of time. You saw this inference demand and uh to take advantage of this coding system uh boom, which it's almost like a gold rush. You see OpenAI pivoting toward it, Anthropic obviously is thriving on it, uh billions of ARR every few weeks. Yeah. Uh, and uh Jensen uh acquired Groq, um acquired the assets of Groq and the people of Groq. And this, the combination of integrating Groq's uh technology together with Vera Rubin uh lets Nvidia serve this tremendous wave of compute demand economically. And uh Ian Buck talked about it, Jensen talked about it. So Nvidia is positioned perfectly to thrive on this coding agent wave that we're seeing right now.
On the Groq deal. Uh, Jensen did a fantastic interview with Ben Thompson and uh was sort of asked the same question two years in a row about ASICs, the threat of ASICs, the idea that the GPU, the general architectures can truly satisfy 100% of demand. It feels like there's a shift in Nvidia's strategy there. Do you see that? It feels like the right move, but do you see it as a shift in the philosophy of the company or the strategy or is this just something that the gears have been turning for a long time and this is maybe just an unveiling of a strategy that makes a lot of sense and has made a lot of sense for a while.
I think what Jensen does, he sees where the market's shifting and where the economic value is. With Mellanox, he did this in 2019. He saw the world shifting to... um...
It's a networking chip but he saw the world shifting to like these 10,000, 100,000 GPU clusters and Mellanox need for that. In the same manner he saw uh AI agents and...
And the inference behind that taking off and he said, oh, this Groq thing will work perfectly. It doesn't replace everything and just talked about 25% of the...
Inference demand would be uh Groq would uh work on that. But them working together where 75% of the inference is Vera Rubin, 25% is Groq low latency stuff. That's it's like the perfect combination to take advantage of this.
Um, and the other thing is like we're just in this great liftoff of AI innovation.
We've talked about Anthropic Mythos, the blog post that leaked out. So we're going to have this, you know, step up function. They told Fortune it's going to be a huge step up change. Yeah. OpenAI is coming out with their model soon. And then when I went to GTC, the biggest takeaway I had was this uh session between Jeff Dean and Bill Dally, both chief scientists of Google and Nvidia. And it's online. I highly recommend uh people watch it. And he talked about, Jeff Dean talked about um context window innovations where they could focus on the 10,000 documents that work well with your request and query. So we're going to have this context window innovation. Both chief scientists talked about uh stacking memory right on top of the GPU or TPU and that's going to be a huge innovation uh in the coming months or years. And uh so you have, and then Jeff talked about uh synthetic data uh for audio and video. There's this huge runway that data is not over and then they're going to be able to take advantage of all this data that uh people don't realize yet. Um, so you have like all these vectors where AI models just keep getting better and better.
Yeah. How are you processing the idea that Nvidia will be investing in an open source frontier lab capability? That feels like potentially competitive with some customers. Nvidia's like never really been in that market before. Uh, but at the same time, I've been the biggest uh like supporter of open source American AI models. I loved when Meta was doing it. I want more of it. I loved when OpenAI open sourced GPT-OSS. It feels really, really important, really great, but it does feel like a strategic shift. How did you process that announcement?
It's not a huge... I think it's like $25 billion over the next few years, which doesn't really compete with what OpenAI and Anthropic are doing. Yeah, I guess these smaller models are going to be helpful for people running these smaller use cases. So, GPUs as long as they're utilized even locally or in the cloud, Nvidia benefits. And I saw the top people at Qwen...
Um, left and we don't know where they left to. Qwen is an amazing model. It's kind of like what people thought DeepSeek should be when it works well locally. Um, Qwen kind of subsides because all the people...
What's your theory on where they all went? Another Chinese lab or...
I asked all the engineers when I was at GTC, no one really knew, but people are trying to say Nvidia should actually hire them because the more capable open source model... Nvidia doesn't care if you're using GPUs to run open source or not. They just want, you know, more AI adoption across the world.
Yeah. And Nvidia has more uh probably more levers to pull if it turns into a negotiation with China. Like we're tracking like the Manus story with Meta. And there isn't that much that Meta can give to China in exchange if there's like a hey, look the other way on this particular deal, like let this one flow through. We'll trade this. Meta not really doing any business there. That Nvidia of course is going to be uh selling Blackwells at some point in the near future and there's probably some level of pricing, you know, it can be part of a larger discussion which makes a lot of sense.
And one thing that kind of went under the radar, Jensen literally said at GTC they got license approvals on both the US and China side. We're going to see billions of dollars of H200 orders.
Okay, so yeah, I mean it seems like there's a path on the demand side that's very, very clear. You've...
Mapped it out a few times. It's a huge number. It's already massive revenues, just an incredible growth. But what is the supply side looking like? Because it feels like TSMC is not ramping capex nearly fast enough over the next few years. And if we see another 10x increase in compute demand, we could be really constrained on the leading edge fab side. So how do you think Nvidia is going to process that?
Well, Nvidia is in the driver's seat because Jensen goes there five, six times a year and his best friends at TSMC and speaks at their employee day. So they're going to get a higher allocation to wafers and CoWoS and all that stuff, and they will benefit. But I agree with you that industrywide, Google is dying to get more TPU wafer capacity.
All the hyperscalers that have ASICs are trying to get more wafer capacity. So there is going to be an AI compute shortage in the years to come, just like you said. And Nvidia just benefits because they're the biggest dog in the house and they can prepay tens of billions of dollars to get the allocations they need.
Yeah. I mean, maybe there's some offtake in ASICs that can potentially be fabbed somewhere else at some point. I know that a lot of the ASIC companies wind up fabbing at TSMC, but it feels like if you're already doing some sort of rearchitecture, maybe there's a way that you can squeeze something a little bit out of an Intel deal or something else. I'm not exactly sure, but...
Samsung and Intel are the only fabs that can possibly do it.
