All right, everybody. We found Kara. [__] Ring cameras.
Sorry, I don't know time differences. I don't know what to tell you.
Hi everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
So, a little different today. We cannot find Kara Swisher, and we've been making jokes for the last 15 minutes. Do you want to hear my favorite, Jess?
We sent bloodhounds looking for her, but she found them first. Or we think she might be in a Patagonia store asking for something less douchey in Silicon Valley. Anyways, we don't know where she is. We think that she lost track of time, the time zone, and that she's with the sales of Mississippi, though.
No, I thought I ran into her in the Vox studio in New York City, which was a delightful run, and I guess that was two days ago. She could have hopped on a jet to the jungle with an ayahuasca shaman or something.
It's funny you say that because every time people run into Kara, the first word they think of is delightful. Listen, you lost some credibility, but despite that, we're going to move forward with this show. And joining us, for those of you who don't know, is Jess Tarlow, co-host of Raging Moderates and some show on cable TV and the...
Cable's dying. It doesn't even matter.
There you go. And tied for first with Kaitlan Collins for the pervy obsession of the president. Anyways, and we're not even going to go to that. First off, Donald Trump appears to be doubling down on his comments about Iran potentially striking California as he defends the war. Let's listen to what he said at a rally on Wednesday night.
But you want to see trauma, you want to see problems, and I said it the other day, let them hit a missile into San Diego or Los Angeles on the way. Let them hit. You want to see a horror show. You want to see problems. Let them hit San Diego. Let them hit Los Angeles. And you want to see some bad things happen. You want to see a country that would be in free fall. We're not going to let that happen. We protect our cities. We protect our country. We're not letting that happen.
All right. So, I'm going to pretend I'm Kara. Can you believe this guy now? Provide insight. Your turn, Jess.
I can believe this guy. And the question is whether the American people can believe this guy anymore. If the polls are to be believed, we are in, you know, blue wave to potentially tsunami territory. And you know that I like to be nauseously optimistic. You always have to run like you're behind. And the good news is Democrats are actually doing that. But these kinds of comments are the things that really turn off independents and moderates. So like if his base is largely intact and there are parts of it that are fracturing for sure, but in general the 'you shot someone on Fifth Avenue, let me buy you a beer' crowd is still, you know, hook, line and sinker in there. This is the stuff for people who are on the fence or who maybe took a flyer on him in 2024 because they thought that prices would go down, we wouldn't have wars in the Middle East, and that the Democrats were too scattered and woke and crazy and weren't delivering. They look at this and just say like, what's wrong with you? The question is how did he put it, or people who were trying to decode Trump in the first term where they said, you know, don't take him literally or seriously or whatever it is, like where does nuking Los Angeles and San Diego, or I guess getting the Iranians to do it, we're not going to do it ourselves, where does that go on the scale of how seriously you're supposed to take him, or what signal is it sending to Iran about what's going on here? It's interesting though. It was the first time when I saw it, it was the first time where I thought the crowd really just was caught flatfooted. They did not know how to respond. And usually they kind of like, 'Oh god, there goes Donald,' and an eye roll and a laugh and, you know, oh, you know, take him, take him seriously, but don't take him literally. But this was the first time it felt, oh god, someone we need to take grandpa's driver's license away.
It's interesting you say this especially turns off moderates. Is it worth it for sort of inflaming or exciting the base, or is it just net net this is a bad move politically, is what you're saying?
Oh, definitely. I mean, this is crunch time, right? Early voting has started. It is going well for Democrats. You know, seeing huge surges, especially in Latino voters, and we know that his approval rating with Latinos has plummeted to levels that they certainly didn't expect based on a very good overperformance in 2024, but putting back together the more traditional Democratic coalition. So folks are paying attention now. That's what happens after Labor Day, and we're a month within a month of the election. So folks are perking up and they're saying, 'Oh, what's going on here?' And he's talking about being cool with losing, you know, big important American cities. And I should add also, there are a lot of Republicans in San Diego. Like he didn't pick...
You know, purple to conservative. So, you know, go after LA. We've kind of been there before. He's told generals, you know, storm, storm blue cities. I don't really care what you do here. But adding San Diego to the mix, I assume, you know, it's a Gavin Newsom problem and he's talking about the 25th Amendment. We're not going to get there. But I do think it is a major turnoff because people just want to hear about real stuff. Like what's the economic plan? What's the plan for getting out of the war in Iran? You know, what does immigration enforcement look like? Because we don't like Stephen Miller riding around on a pickup truck, you know, taking our neighbors out of our communities.
Trump made similar comments on Monday night, leading California Governor Gavin Newsom to call for the 25th Amendment to be invoked. Newsom said the president's comments were deranged and dangerous. White House communications director Steven Chung pushed back on X, saying Trump was describing the threat US cities would have faced if a nuclear Iran hadn't been stopped.
Donald Trump is the hero. This is how bad it could have been. But right now, everyone's just having to pay. How much does it cost now to get an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz?
Yeah, it's what is to be fair though, my understanding is the passage of...
I'll put forward a thesis here, Jess. I don't want to call it an October surprise. So, essentially, we've seen this before. There's nothing new for presidents to try and come up with a military-involved October surprise, whether it's Carter, it goes all the way back to Vietnam, to try and juice him in the polls because America has a tendency to rally around the flag in the current administration during military action. I don't want to say I worry, but I see a non-zero probability that something could go very right in Iran right now. It looks like the oil embargo is beginning to really have serious impact on Iran. Oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz is actually almost to pre-war levels. If oil starts to dive, and also I believe, you know, if you take off your partisan lens here and ask yourself what could go right, we didn't see, we didn't see Assad falling until he did. I actually think there's a, not a likelihood, but a chance that the IRGC could have a major disruption or fall. You know, you just don't know. I wonder if something could go very right in the next 30 days in Iran.
All right, everybody. We found Kara. [__] Ring cameras.
Sorry. I don't know time differences. I don't know what to tell you.
When did you become me? It's time to take mommy's driver's license away.
Let me tell you, I'm in Mississippi. I'm with the most wonderful person I know from tech, Jim Barksdale, who has raised money for literacy and Mississippi Today, which is local journalism. This astonishing thing, and with Donna and Jim, and I'm at their house. We were having a delightful breakfast all together, and I didn't realize the time difference, and I apologize. Central time is an hour behind or ahead. See, I don't even know. I don't even know.
When did you become me? It's time to take mommy's driver's license away. We thought we were going to find you under a pile of Patagonia vests at the local Patagonia store.
We were making ayahuasca jokes that you were like in the jungle somewhere with a shaman.
And I could have been. So anyway, so I'm here in Mississippi and that's where I am.
I'm going to play Kara. All right, Scott, we've got a lot to get to. So Kara, I was just speaking to Jess Tarlow about the fact that The Atlantic is saying there might be sort of an October surprise.
That there's some, there might be something kind of big going down and that he's sort of, I don't know, teasing some military action or something in Iran. Any thoughts?
Well, that's what he would do. He's got to do something dramatic, right? There's something that has to happen that'll take people's focus away and I guess approximate a victory of some sort or approximate something that's sort of shock and awe. Probably it'll backfire on him because he's an incompetent leader. But you know, the idea most presidents do things like this when things are bad. They take a foreign action, right? And they think this is what people want, but actually they don't, right? They actually don't. Most people are very against the war in Iran.
Well, that was the blinding insight people come to Pivot for. Now we're going to switch identities and Kara, you're going to take the show from here. Thank God, said everyone listening to this dog's breakfast called Pivot.
All yours, sweetheart. We're glad you're back. We're glad you're safe.
Are you okay?
I'm going to wheel you into the hospital and it's going to be one of those cheap food all day.
Okay. Well, I need someone to hold my hand. Not vice versa. Just why don't you just say you miss me and you're worried if anything would happen to me. You could say...
We started to get worried.
I'm just telling you. Anyway, and now for the grift of the week. Trump wants to turn part of his West Palm Beach golf club into a presidential retreat at Camp David. Though when asked if he would call it Camp Donald, oh my god, Trump said his name is already, his name is already Trump International. The plan would designate part of the property as a permanent official retreat for US presidents and foreign leaders used for summits and presidential vacations. Future presidents would also be offered comped memberships to Trump's club. Lucky them. The club lawyer says construction paid by Trump maybe wouldn't be finished until after President Trump leaves office. So really it's just a gift to Trump's successors. What do you all think of this thoughtful gift?
That man has not paid for anything himself for all of time. I love now, you know, with the ads that they're putting during the NFL and like college game day and things like that, that apparently they're going to start paying for it, but it won't be retroactive, right?
I've gotten to the point now where I'm like, just bring it on because it is so clearly expressing to the rest of us that he doesn't give a [__] about the actual business of governing. And I would rather go into election day with everyone being clear-eyed about that, right? Like this is a man that cares about having Camp Donald or Trump International, whatever redux version.
Well, the externalities, right? All the externalities like a Camp David or all the, or the columns, the Corinthian columns versus iconic, that kind of thing.
I mean, yes, it's a stylistic nightmare. But this is also a way for him to stay in power because I'm sure he's having a meltdown about the fact that Steve Bannon is working very hard for the third term plan, but it's probably not going to come to fruition. And how does he keep a stranglehold on American politics for longer? This is a way to do that. However, he's going to be informing what goes on in the ballroom. Maybe he'll be in the bunker underneath. Maybe we'll get him out. I'm not really sure. But I do welcome it from a political strategist point of view on the other side because you can just say he cares more about this stuff than he cares about the fact that, you know, your gas is over $4 and you can't afford school supplies this year for your kids.
And this is what he's concerned with, like bread and circuses essentially.
The bread and the circus.
Yeah. Scott, so members clubs in New York, we were, I was having a conversation last night. They're, I'm not exaggerating, they've opened probably 12 or 15 in the last 2 years, 2 to 3 years. It was a, it's a great concept. So, Soho House kind of came out with the two-tier membership clubs in London and then it came to New York. And then this visionary, a guy named Scott Sartiano, said there's room at the high end because people are making so much money. And he came in with sort of the Mercedes version, Zero Bond. And then I think about 14 different very wealthy people were at different tables at Zero Bond and said, 'I can do this.' And none of them were talking to each other and they've just opened everywhere. And there's one on the Upper West, I think, which I love to go to once every 10 or 12 years. The Upper West Side. I don't see why anyone lives up there.
Museums. You don't go, the museums are incredible up there.
Move to Greenwich, Connecticut. I mean, why...
Greenrass? Barney Greenrass.
It's like, okay, there's a, there...
Anyways, so if you have a dog, I get it because of the park. But anyways, there's something called, I think it's a friend of mine who's a player in private equity took me there. It's Maxine's or Oswald's.
Oh, I've been there. Maxine's. It's on the Upper East Side.
The average age of the people there is dead. I have never seen so many old people who have descendants about to fight over their estate. Literally, it was the Hall of Fame of private equity.
By the way, that's going to be Jess and I someday about yours, but go ahead.
I was with a guy who's, I don't know if he's a billionaire, but he's very wealthy. He was the least wealthy person in the room. It was, if you named a private equity person, they were in there, and the lights were so bright so people could read, and there was fabric everywhere. So the acoustics were really good.
And the font on the menus was like 7 million.
And my favorite part was a guy walked by, like a famous private equity guy. We'll just call him David. And my friend was like, 'Hi, David.' And the guy just kept kind of shuffling along and he's literally like, 'David, David.' He started screaming and the guy still couldn't hear him. And nobody flinched. Nobody there can hear a thing.
How does this get to Trump? Okay.
This is going to be worse than that. This is going to be less cool than that.
Oh, I see. I see where it's going. Yeah. So, it's like the elderly Camp David. We could put Chuck Grassley there. We could put Mitch McConnell. We could wheel him in. Those people, right? Correct.
You're going to be able to order a Ruth Bader Ginsburg club sandwich.
All right. Okay. On that note, it's another grift. Okay, Scott, let's go. And Jess, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, the Paramount Warner Brothers merger is complete.
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