Welcome to Moving Iron with Casey Seymour and Greg Peterson, the podcast for anyone and everyone involved and interested in the business of ag equipment. If you want to understand what trends and market forces are impacting the price of your iron, you've come to the right place. Buckle up, it's time to move some iron.
Hello and welcome to Moving Iron podcast. I got Greg Peterson, Machinery Pete, back here with me to talk about what's happening in the marketplace. Greg, how are you doing today, bud?
I'm doing well. How about you?
Doing well, doing well. So, we had a rarity here. I mean, we've—I don't know, you've been on my Moving Iron podcast now four or five times, way back when, and now we're doing this stuff together, and I think this was the first time that we actually had a chance to record one in the same place.
Yeah, that was fun today. We were in Hamilton, Illinois. Always good memories going to visit all my friends at Sullivan Auctioneers and Big Iron. And yeah, I was teasing you. How many microphones did you bring for the recording today?
I had five. I had five mics there today.
Yeah. I've been doing TV about 20 years. I've never seen anything like that. You are prepared, brother. That was awesome.
That was—I also liked how, you know, I've kind of been teasing our friends at Farm Journal for years. I'm like, I just want to do content where there's like six or eight people around a table and we just talk. And that's what we had today. It was super fun.
Yeah, a lot of good times. A lot of good times.
So, this podcast is a little bit different than ones we've done in the past. You know, Greg and I were fortunate enough to go to the Sullivan and we did have a great opportunity to continue the series I've done with our sponsors John Deere at Commodity Classic. We got that second edition coming out. We're talking about sprayer upgrades and those kind of things and spent some time doing that. Also had Chip Nellinger come on today and talk about what he sees happening in commodities because there's nothing happening in commodities right now, Pete. It's just gumdrops and candy canes and real simple things. There's no crazy things happening over there.
Yeah, that's the way Chip and those guys put it all the time. Like we're one tweet away from markets going up or markets going down, and then another tweet comes back up and we're right back in the game again.
One tweet. We're hanging by a thread. It's all right. It'll all be okay.
Hanging by a thread, that's right. That's right.
Well, let's hit on this a little bit. So, you know, obviously, Greg, you've followed auctions forever and that's your niche. That's the thing that you really are known for and really keep a good pace about what's going on in the marketplace considering how things relate back to the auction marketplace. And you know, we've heard a lot of gloom and doom here of late, but if you watch the auction market, you're not seeing that gloom and doom. We're seeing some all-time highs on a lot of things. Matter of fact, I watched two machines sell that were very impressive sales. There was that Fendt sprayer, which we'll talk about that one for sure, but that was over a $500,000 sale for that particular piece of equipment. I watched that Steiger 715 sell that Madaus had what, a week ago, two weeks ago, something like that, that brought 579, which was probably honestly about 50 grand more than I thought it was going to bring when you start looking at things.
But as you watch the stuff come together and you're tracking these things, the auction marketplace, all things considered, are showing some incredible numbers as you look at what's going on there.
Yeah, I agree, Casey. I mean, it was interesting. So the fourth quarter normally, November, December is go time. Even in the down periods over the years I've been tracking auction prices, it always has been the strongest period. And this past year, it was kind of almost down a little bit again. Only maybe the second or third time I've seen November, December be kind of down a little bit going back 25 years. But boy, since the calendar flipped here the last month or so, I've seen some really strong prices. I mean, that sale you referenced with the Fendt 937H, I think those are a '24 model with like over 500 hours on that sprayer. It sold last Thursday in Ubank, Kentucky by Sullivan Auctioneers, who we're visiting with today. $500,000 and a quarter. That's the highest auction price ever on a sprayer by 16,000 bucks.
And you know, I've tried to be careful over the years about describing the market based on one sale price event, you know, because we work with 1,300 auction companies. So, within the space of a few days either way, just if we talk sprayers, I mean, I think that same day last Thursday, Steffes sold a '23 model John Deere 412R, 567 hours in Wahpeton, North Dakota. I think it was an online farm auction. And that brought—I think that brought 400 and oh, I can't read my handwriting here. It was the highest auction price ever on a 412R. And then two days later in Hart, Michigan, good folks at Miedema Auction had a nice online farm auction. And they had a Hagie STS 12 that was a '24 model, 500 and some hours on it. It brought 435. So, second highest auction price ever on a Hagie. And then I think just yesterday out of Arkansas, my friend Doug Stoltzfus at Stoltzfus Auction, great auction company down there, they sold a Deere 408R, only 256 hours on it. I don't know if it was a '23 or '24, but that came in the third highest auction price ever on a 408R, and that was out of Arkansas.
So, you know, you swirl that together, and that sale with the Fendt sprayer, I mean, our friends at Sullivan's there, they were telling me, and they're as plugged in as anybody, but that auction event, I mean, it came in over a million dollars over what they thought.
And that's what you were talking about. Things are just a little stronger here the last month or so. And you know, it doesn't always match up with the verbiage. We know times are tight times. But for a lot of reasons that you and I have talked about here the last few episodes, you know, the sales of new have really slowed down. Farmers got to farm. And when you need that sprayer, you know, while they're keeping one under warranty, low hours, when the right one shows up, you can see it's very competitive out there.
Yep. You know, I talked about a little bit of this one at Commodity Classic on a couple different things I did on the platform. Couple different things I looked at and then a couple questions came up like, 'Hey, what's hot now? What's not hot now?' And I kind of, you know, I can't really point to any one thing that says, 'Hey, this is hotter than something else.' Or like, 'Hey, this is a really kind of a big outlier out there.' But I did point to sprayers. And I said, you know, if I was looking to do something right now, couple things. One, timing, the time of the year you're looking at some sprayer stuff, but it just feels like in kind of the sense that you talked about there, that the sprayer market is heating up at a different rate than what we've seen other—even row crop tractors, which typically is the voice of the equipment marketplace, right? So, when things sort of tick up even a little bit, you know, row crop tractors take off and fly. And as soon as things start to tick down, they're the last thing to really slow down on the sell wise. And you're really not seeing a lot out of the row crop tractor market right now that you can point at and say, 'Hey, we're seeing some movement now. We're seeing some good auction numbers come out.' No doubt about that, but we're not seeing it. It just feels like to me when I look at the sprayer marketplace, it feels like it's a little bit stronger, maybe heading in a—there's maybe a little bit of a tailwind on the sprayer side of the market than what we've seen maybe in the last 18 months, right? It feels like right now it's way stronger than it's been.
Yeah, I think, you know, again, what we talk about a lot, Casey, on the auction front, I mean, the sale prices can change quickly. And if we're talking about Hagie STS 12, I mean, we filmed an auction, I think it was December 12th in Bible Grove, Illinois, which is kind of the south-central part of the state. Schmidt Auction had the sale. Trent Schmidt, great guy. Super nice farm auction, live in-person sale, so it was a fun day. And I think they had an STS 12 that only had like 182 hours on it. And that brought 428 on that sale. And I mean, Trent promotes his sales really, really well. So, 428 hard cash in December, which is usually, like we say, that's usually maximum sale price time. Where here we are, so that STS 12 that sold in Hart, Michigan was March 8th. So, less than three months later, you've got one with 500 hours on it going 435. So, not a huge—I mean, it's $7,000 difference, but way more hours on it. And I mean, that's the beauty of the auction market. It's been December, then it was still pulled back. Now, maybe that was an offshoot of all the dealer stuff that had been selling the second half of 2024 auction, whereas that's kind of dried up, you know, comparatively here early in 2025. But you add it all up and it's, you know, I mean, I guess I find it interesting because there's so much uncertainty right now. Not to take Moving Iron podcast in political directions, but there's just so much going on. And normally over the 35 years I've been doing this, when there's uncertainty, that usually puts pressure on the farmer to kind of hold the cards a little tighter. Now, whether it's just people feel optimism for our future here the rest of the year and beyond, I don't know, but it's really interesting what's happened just the last month here.
Yeah. Yeah, and you watch where commodity prices have been. I mean, you knocked about 50 cents off the price of corn in the last two weeks. It's actually regained about a quarter of that back, but you know, yeah, every week there's a new tariff announcement or this side or the other thing and you see that slide. I just—these first three to six months of this year, which we're in the third month now, but as you're watching these things roll, you're going to see some of this kind of stuff happening and as these things start to pan out and more people get together on what this trade might look like, you know, things will start leveling out a little bit, but it's going to be—it's going to be—it's always interesting.
Yeah, it's just interesting, you know. I always used to figure, Casey, this was kind of before online bidding really got rolling, but our data over the years, again going back three and a half decades, it always used to look to me like up through about St. Patrick's Day that the auction pricing would kind of be strong. And then it used to be on particularly Saturdays, mid-March to the second part of March, so many areas would have their regional consignment sale and you get all this equipment jammed together and the online bidding wasn't what it is now and the pricing would start to slide. And you're getting close to—at least in the upper Midwest where I am, you know, oh, we're getting time to put the planter in the ground and the pricing would kind of fall off and then kind of stay stagnant until we got far enough in the season where guys would go, oh, this year's pretty good or this year sucks, whatever directionally. And now, I mean, everything moves faster now.
So, you get these little jumps like this. Or conversely, when things pull back, they happen fast.
You know, and if you're working on a deal with your dealer, I mean, gosh, you really need to be aware. And I know you sat in the dealer chair, and you were plugged in as anybody I've ever met to movement in used values and trends. So, it's interesting to track this stuff. I—you know, one thing, a little anecdotal note, today we're hanging out with Sullivan Auctioneers, and they've really got some real stuff going on. They've been adding to their team and bringing, you know, some great players in. You know, so Alan Henslin from up my way in Minnesota, Bird Island, Minnesota, Alan and his dad, LeDon Henslin Auction, of course. Now they're cranking away with Sullivan Auctioneers, but I was talking to Alan about a land sale up near where I grew up, west-central Minnesota, that sold last week. And you know, Alan said, 'I think it brought 14-5 per acre.' And I said, 'Alan, you're plugged in. What did you think it was going to bring?' And he was like, '11, 12.' But again, 14-5, so I think there's still some strong balance sheets out there. We see it with land. And when the right equipment shows up, again, like that sale in Ubank, Kentucky, last Thursday, or Hart, Michigan, on Saturday, the right stuff, it brings money.
Yep. And I think that's the—you hit on something there that I think is the truth in anything right now and in the world that we live in is that the amount of information that you can go out and track now and see. And like we were talking about before we started recording, I remember going to auction with my grandpa, and you know, the little local auction, the estate sale, where they're selling the furniture and this and that, and there might be a little tractor in there or something like that, but you know, that was—he had a couple hundred people there and that was a banger. You know what I mean? That was everybody. And we're talking like 30 miles away was the entire world. A 30-mile radius of that place was the earth, the sun rose and set in that 30 miles, you know, and that's kind of how it worked.
And where did you grow up, Casey? What town again? I can't remember.
Okay. So, you're an El Dorado boy, Benson, Minnesota boy, and I hear what you say, the world was like within 40 miles. So, those sale bills are all in town in the cafe. And that was your audience. And you know, hard for the young kids to remember, but there used to only be five channels or four channels on a TV. And I was in high school when cable came out and your world started to slowly get bigger. Of course, cell phones came along and it's interesting.
So, on the dealer side, it's kind of fascinating. Now, you were right in the eye of the storm back in the last downturn back, you know, '14, '15, '16, '17. And you compare that to now with that information flow you just brought up.
Yeah. I mean, well, we try and help our dealers with machinerypete.com, the back-end analytics. So, we were talking sprayers. I mean, now you can look and not only see the auction pricing—oh, it's going up—you can actually see the search traffic. And you go, oh, now I see why the auction price is going up because more farmers are looking. So, it's—there's a lot out there, but kind of the key, don't you think? I don't want to put words in your mouth, but you got to find the right data that you trust and then it's like a baseline. And then when you see stuff moving, then you kind of get a sense, okay, things are shifting.
Yeah. I was always a big fan of any three data points that say the same thing for me to trust it. Because I got burnt too many times with the first thing I saw and then, oh yeah, that fits my narrative, you know.
I don't believe you ever got burnt on anything, man. You're too sharp.
I got burnt plenty of times, but it was—you know, I'd always look at it and I'd try to find three different things that showed from three different independent places that showed, hey, this was where it was at. And back when I first started doing it, that was kind of tough. It wasn't necessarily as easy to be, but today, man, you can pull up auction data from 25 different sales that happened in the last 90 days and look at the same—relatively close to the same equipment and get that feel. And then you go back and look at what you sold yours for out of your dealership, you know, through your business system, and then what's the retail market look like and what are those things pairing together. And yeah, there's just so much.
We, by the way, we do hope that folks tend to make their first stop for auction pricing at machinerypete.com, of course. So, it's a completely different world out there. And yeah, I'm sure your audience, you know, farmers, what they have to deal with in terms of data and the decisions. And again, we talked about today at our round table, I don't think farmers in agriculture get enough credit for leaning into these data tools and technology shifts and completely changing the way you farm. And same with dealers, I mean, you know, changing the way you do things, taking it away from a gut-level business to really being plugged into what does the data tell us, whether that's sprayers, combines. Look at the land side of stuff, you know, you look at the stuff that's there, the amount of maps that you look at if you want to go buy a piece of land and how many maps you can look at to show soil maps, yield, fertilization maps, what those look like and how that relates back to yield and where you're at, and just all that different stuff that you can look at and play into. And I think it was funny when we were having the round table today and folks will—you're going to enjoy this discussion when Casey gets it all. This was fantastic. But again, we talked a little bit about land values and I found it interesting, you know, because Dan Sullivan there will kind of chant the sale. But they were commenting on the raw number of people that log in to these land auctions. Now, not everyone—and of course not everyone has the checkbook out who's going to buy it. But I think people are clamoring because they know, like, okay, this piece of ground, like you said, they can look at those maps. They know what it is. And they have in their head like, okay, I think—for like I talked to Alan, Alan, I think 11,000. And then when they see it go for 14, you know, right or wrong, that tells you something in that area how people are feeling. And then you can work that backwards into your operation and your planning, whether it's your used equipment plans or land plans or whatever. So, there is a lot more information that is just free flowing out there now.
Yep. Yep. So, this Big Iron thing that we did today, it's going to probably take—we'll probably put it out over the next three episodes to kind of really make everything flow together. But one thing we wanted to highlight while we were there is their big consignment sale that they have coming up on the 18th, right? Tuesday the 18th.
Yes. Yep. And that'll be—and, you know, we're going to see some clips here in a little while, but there's no lack of equipment on their yard. There's plenty of stuff there. Yeah, it was fun. After we finished our taping for the podcast, I went out on the lot with Dan Sullivan and Mark Stock with Big Iron, and we just kind of walked and shot the breeze. And one thing that Dan said that was interesting was a high percentage of this equipment is from farmers. So, even again, versus last year in '24, it was such a heavy flow of dealer equipment onto auctions all over the country. And they had quite a row of combines. And then we walked up, of course, the old front row of Sullivan's lot there, the tractor lot. And I was commenting to Dan, I was like, 'Oh, there's a lot of good memories here from auctions, covering for you guys.' But yeah, some really good equipment selling on I think Tuesday, March 18th, sullivanauctioneers.com. So, you know, folks, if you're looking for a kind of a late spring buy, that's a good opportunity coming up there.
Right on. Well, looking forward to it, Greg. It's going to be a good episode. You got a new place you can go find all the fun stuff that is Farm Journal Machinery Pete TV and whatnot. And that's farmjournaltv. You can go get—there's a new app out there you can go find. If you got Roku or Apple TV or whatever smart TV or something like that, you can download that app, and it has all of Farm Journal's content on there so you can find the video version of the Moving Iron Podcast as well, Machinery Pete TV, and all the stuff that is out there with US Farm Report and Ag Day and Chip Flory's stuff and all those things that are out there. There's a lot of good content there.
Folks, you come out, come hang out with me and Casey there and our friends Tyne and Clinton, and yeah, it's pretty cool what Farm Journal's put together there. So, check it out.
Very cool. All right, Greg, it's a good place to stop there. So, stay tuned for more Moving Iron Podcast coming up as we discuss what's going on over at Big Iron and Sullivan Auctions.
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Hello, and welcome back to Moving Iron Podcast. I've got Chip Nellinger from Blue Reef Ag Marketing back on here to talk about what's happening in the marketplace. Chip, how you doing this morning?
Hey, good. How you doing, Casey?
Doing okay, man. Well, we saw a 50-cent run-off here on corn over the last couple of weeks due to tariff talks. What you see—we see it's bounced back here about a quarter or so back up in that 470 range when you look at that front month contract. A little pressure today because we can announce some more tariffs with the EU. So, we're playing the tariff game again just like we saw about six or eight years ago when all this stuff started to come out. I guess, Chip, I mean, obviously this is not a big surprise, Trump's doing everything he said he was going to do, but as you look at this, it feels like we're—like you've talked about in the past—we're one tweet away, one tweet away or X away or whatever you call it today, from having something crazy happen one way or the other, and it feels like we're in that swapping back and forth range.
Yeah, for sure. We've seen that about four or five times in the last three or four weeks in here. So, we're back to that cycle of news flow. One tweet, one news item can really move this market one way or the other. Unfortunately, the last few weeks it's been lower with the announcement of these tariffs, and you know, they're on again, they're off again. I think to me the take-home is their starting point is some negotiations to get, you know, some fairer trade for us. Hopefully that can mean eventually that we get some sort of a trade deal, right? In the short run it's negative to the market, but I kind of take a different approach and say, hey, down the road here, could this actually be good for ag? Could we get some trade agreements that actually solidify our standing in the ag space and maybe open some new markets up and get some extra demand out of this? You know, arguably in beans, South America's got a big crop, but corn right now, we're the only game in town in the world essentially, and so this thing could be good down the road. But to your point today, tariffs on the EU, we still have a lot of uncertainty with the Canadian and Mexican tariffs, and we haven't even really begun to debate the Chinese tariff. So, every tweet that comes out seems to be on the negative side, and all of a sudden you snap your fingers and, you know, corn's eight or nine lower in here.
Yep. So, some reports came out of China—well, not some reports, some statements came out of China that basically said we're ready for any kind of war you want to have. And I enjoyed that rhetoric there, that made me feel good on the inside. I don't know if I felt that come through.
But you had a—as you watch that happening, you know, so they put a big tariff on soybeans and those kind of things, and we've talked about this, you talked about it on the US Farm Report, reporting at Commodity Classic, that, you know, hey, China's got a huge bean crop coming, so it's not like they were going to buy, you know, soybeans from the US anyway, right? Obviously that's going to play a factor. As you look at that, what are your thoughts on soybeans right now?
Yeah, you know, I think that in the big picture here, the Ag Outlook Forum here last month in February maybe set the stage for, you know, the most bearish scenario. You know, meaning I think that at the end of the day, you know, the 52-and-a-half-bushel level as far as the yields go, you know, we've never really done that, and so that's a high bar to hit. Obviously, we're going to plant fewer acres of beans, and so if there's any weather scare down the road here, if we plant three or four million less bean acres and we get threatened with a sub-50-bushel bean crop nationally, it keeps things pretty tight. Yes, we're going to lose some export business we already have to Brazil and South America. China doesn't need our beans right now because they've got fresh availability out of the newly harvested crop in Brazil. And so, you know, I think though that that's not brand-new fresh news. We've known that for months and months and months. We knew even before the election that Trump had a chance of winning. If he won, there's going to be almost immediate tariffs against China. There was. We knew that there was a chance for a big crop in Brazil. There is. And so this market looks ahead. It's a futures market. And I think maybe, just maybe, there's a chance we've digested the most bearish news in here. Doesn't mean we're going to immediately rally here. I'm not trying to say that. Obviously, we're seeing some weakness here. It's led by beans, really. Beans are the weakest link in the grain market right now, it seems like. But I'm hopeful that going forward we're going to have some opportunities. And you know, again, I just keep going back that right now the news flow is negative because of the tariffs. But the other side of this could be friendly. And it's a world market. Right now China doesn't need our beans. They're buying them from Brazil. And you know, again, we've said this for a long time, and I know I've been pretty vocal on your podcast too, Casey, for several years. You know, China is our enemy. They don't see us as their friend. They've been positioning for the long game for 20 or 30 years. And I think some of the statements that Trump has made, whether that's wanting Canada as a 51st state, wanting Greenland, wanting the Panama Canal—the sole purpose of that is to position against China encroaching on our interests. And they've been doing it for 30 years pretty much untapped or even aided by different administrations. So, it's a different—you know, new sheriff in town, so to speak. The tariff thing in the short run is obviously negative. But I do think we're going a long way towards getting the worst of that digested in the market in here.
Yeah, for sure. All right, so let's talk a little bit about where you see things moving along on, you know, the prospective plantings report coming up. Obviously, corn's going to win out on a lot of acres there. Where do you think—as you look at this, where do you think the biggest cuts are going to come from? I've talked to some guys down in the Southeast that are talking, you know, hundreds of thousands of acres of cotton not getting planted and going to corn. So, I guess as you're looking at this mix, where do you see things happening? And I mean, this is one of those reports that's kind of a pie-in-the-sky type of deal and it's usually different after they go back and check it again, but as you're watching this thing take place, how do you think the market's going to react and what are you expecting out of this report?
Yeah, again, I think we got a little help with the Ag Outlook Forum in February. You know, they were what, about three million more corn acres, about three million less bean acres. So, that's a good line in the sand. I think the market even thinks that, you know, maybe we could be up towards four-and-a-half, five million more corn acres and maybe close to four million less bean acres. To your point, I think a lot of that's going to come out of the South, both beans and cotton. I think what we've picked up across the heart of the Corn Belt is even farmers in the I states are making a shift away from beans to corn. Not massive amounts, but 5%, 7% here and there, and that adds up across the I states in the heart of the Corn Belt. So, I do think maybe the market's going to not be surprised by, you know, four-and-a-half million more corn acres and maybe towards four million less bean acres. Probably as important as the acreage report, we also get that stocks report on the 31st as well, and so, you know, that sometimes is more important and carries more weight than what the acreage report says and sets the stage for spring planting, obviously. We're getting some rain here in some of these drier areas, but we're still very, very dry. We had an inch and a half plus of rain here about a week to 10 days ago locally. That was the heaviest rain we've had since August, and so it's gone though. I mean, very, very dry, and there's no water standing, so we can take some more rain, we need some more rain. It's going to be very critical throughout the growing season, especially in the summer, that we continue to get ample rains because there's not much of a subsoil moisture profile across wide swaths of the Corn Belt right now.
Right. So, that was my next question I was going to talk to you about. You look at the drought map and there's yellow to beige pretty much across the entire Corn Belt. You go all the way out to where I am, the panhandle of Nebraska, where I was 30 days away from a drought anyway, and they're going to make a new color for us out there, I think, but right now we're red. So, but if you look across Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, everyone's got some drought issues. Looking at that map, things get planted, we start looking through—how long till we start seeing that weather market kick in around this drought map?
Yeah, I could argue that the fund length in corn is maybe already playing that a little bit. We've had the funds build up almost a close to 400,000 net long position with this tariff news and the big break in prices here a week or two ago. They pared some of that back by about 100,000 contracts. So, but long answer is, I think pretty quickly. I think once we get the crop planted, then it becomes a full-fledged weather watching here. And so, it's pretty well publicized that portions of Illinois and west are very, very dry right now. And so, I think the market knows the importance of rainfall, particularly pollination and grain fill, as well as temperatures, right? Temperatures are the other half of the equation to that. If it's dry and hot, we've got some serious problems if that persists into July and August for the corn crop. And so, I think pretty immediately after planting, the market gets focused on, all right, where's the rain? How far behind are we or ahead? What's that look like in the two-week forecast? I think we're going to be trading weather sooner than we do normally, and arguably may already be trading some of that. So, you know, again, I think going back to that Ag Outlook Forum, the other thing that is maybe helpful to us or positioned the market is that they plugged in 181-bushel corn yield nationally and a 52-and-a-half on beans. We've never done that on corn, you know, this past year I think it was 179. So, that's a tall order to hit that number. Could very, very easily with some dryness in the western Corn Belt this summer see that in the mid-to-low 170s. That wouldn't even be a disastrous crop. Remember back in 2012, we had like 127 or roughly thereabouts national average corn yield. So, a 170, 172 wouldn't be a disaster, but it would really keep that carryout very, very tight given where demand is. So, it's going to be pretty touch-and-go all summer long, which, you know, think about the tweets and the volatility we're having with the tariff situation. Wait till we get in and the forecast changes five, six times a week—it's going to rain, it's not going to rain. That's going to drive tremendous volatility this summer most likely.
Yep. It's a—what's the old saying? It's a powder keg out there. Just need a spark.
