My mission is simple: to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a bull market somewhere, and I promise to help you find it. Mad Money starts now.
Hey, I'm Cramer. Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Cramerica. Other people make friends. I'm just trying to make a little bit of money. My job is not just to teach, but also to entertain. So call me at 1-800-743-CNBC or tweet me @JimCramer. Happy birthday, bull market!
Today is the fourth anniversary of the incredible rally that began October 12th, 2022, and I think it needs to be celebrated because it created a tremendous amount of wealth out of nowhere. Nobody seemed to be noticing. So on a day where the Dow gained 196 points, the S&P dipped 0.06%, and the Nasdaq lost 0.44%... Let's make a toast and light the candles, at least proverbially, because a bull market in stocks is a virtuous circle of wealth creation. That's what happens when stocks increase in value by $40 trillion.
Today, I want to trace out how implacable this bull has been, even as it hasn't always received the recognition it deserves. Its birth was barely noticed. In fact, it was just the opposite: nobody believed in this little bitty market when it started. If you go back to when this bull was born, you couldn't believe how negative things were. We were gripped by severe pessimism about everything from the Fed's stance on rates — they know nothing — to high inflation and fear of the coming earnings season. Not only was there no claxon sounding to tell people it's time to buy, people were selling aggressively right into the vortex. The next day, by the way, October 13th, we got a hideous consumer price index report with a core CPI up 6.6%. You know, it was the highest in four decades. That's a catastrophic level of inflation for a developed country. Nothing in any part of the data set I could find was considered positive. The only bottom sign I saw was from the actual action in the stock market. The S&P had gone out at 3,577 the night before. The intraday low after that CPI number was 3,491, and yet the market closed at 3,669. It was a remarkable recovery. In short, extreme pessimism is what caused the bottom. Pessimism. By that point, pretty much everyone who was going to sell had already sold. The fact that we could rally on that kind of inflation figure meant that there really wasn't much left to worry about. All the bad news was out, and there was nobody left to dump stocks. And that, people, is how a bull market really begins.
Now, the market couldn't perceive this, but on November 30th of 2022, ChatGPT was launched, and adoption was stunning. Although it didn't seem initially more than, say, a parlor game, the enterprise workhorse quickly became evident. Baby ChatGPT definitely wasn't enough to keep the bear away. In March of 2023, we saw the most serious banking crisis since 2008, when several banks collapsed, led by Silicon Valley Bank, known as a money lender to executives and startups. They were caught flatfooted by the dramatic rise in interest rates orchestrated by then-Fed chief Jay Powell, who took the federal funds rate from near zero in March of 2020 because of the pandemic all the way up to 4.5% to 4.75% in early March of 2023. The man was on a mission to stamp out inflation. But these damaged banks had invested poorly in treasury bonds, of all things, so they were hurt when rates went up so quickly. Higher rates equal lower bond prices. The fallout included the acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS. First Republic, a respected lender, was sold to JPMorgan in a deal arranged by the regulators.
The S&P declined 9% on that banking crisis, but it never went down below there, and it didn't actually have a lot of contagion. Instead, the bull found its footing, led by a new group of stocks. That's when the Magnificent Seven was born: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.
Seems ironic after what happened with their willy-nilly, debt-fueled data center expansions. But back then, these companies became market darlings because of their balance sheets. See, they were so close to perfection. They didn't need credit, because in a credit crisis, people who need credit can't get it, and those who don't are fine. I don't think we had any widespread knowledge of the two markets, the Mag 7 and the rest, until we saw Nvidia's earnings on May 24th of 2023. It was the biggest upside surprise in history, and it propelled Nvidia's valuation to a trillion dollars a week later. A trillion-dollar company that seemingly came out of nowhere. But I say seemingly, because in reality Nvidia had been public since 1999.
That July, more bad news. The Fed raised rates by another 25 basis points. But it turned out that was it: no more hikes. In January of 2024, the S&P hit an all-time high, taking out the previous record early 2022. Not bad. Then on July 15th, Donald Trump received the Republican nomination. Six days later, Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Believe it or not, these political events played no role whatsoever in the bull market, even at the time we probably thought that they were going to be really important. On September 18th, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, breathing new life into a flagging bull.
From there, we didn't hit real turbulence until April of 2025, when President Trump announced a new, highly punitive tariff regime. The S&P plunged 19% from its highs, but the president pivoted soon after, offering a jumbled array of lesser tariffs that the market didn't seem to mind, and we were off to the races again. That tariff reversal pattern — well, you know what? That actually started something that we've become quite used to. The president will try to pivot when the stock market gets hammered. Except this time, he doesn't talk about it. We had smooth sailing for a bit, and then the S&P tumbled 9% when our government went to war with Iran at the end of February, with the decline escalating into the end of March when oil spiked over $100 a barrel after the Iranians effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
During this latter stage of the bull, we saw an ascendance of hardware over software, nominally led by Nvidia but truly supported by a host of semiconductor and disk drive makers along with other data center components. In July, we discovered that much of the upward momentum that we had been seeing, though, was fueled by a hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which peaked and then plummeted, with hardware stocks cascading and software stocks finally bottoming. Since then, enterprise software has been roaring back while hardware struggled to find its footing. That happened all day today. Regardless of what kind of tech is leading the way, the averages kept riding higher.
So, I've given you all this negative news, but it hasn't impacted how much money was made. Whether it was a banking crisis, higher rates, the tariffs, the war in Iran, a major hedge fund implosion, nothing's been able to derail this incredibly powerful move. There are tons of takeaways here. Perhaps we should act in fear of rate hikes — no, we should not fear rate hikes if we are long-term investors. That's the right way to think. Rates don't seem to tell you as much as you might think because they can change when the facts change. We don't need to focus on the day-to-day machinations of the president, either. We should recognize that earnings can drive the market, but so can changes in technology. For me, the real lesson here is that there never seems to be a good time to invest, because bad things do happen quite regularly, as I just showed you. Yet, investing in stocks has proven to be a superior way to get a return, especially if you match your S&P 500 contributions with a handful of stocks that are outperforming.
The S&P is up 118% since the bottom. You invested $10,000 in the S&P back then, you now have $23,610. Nvidia, though, gave you a 1,875% return. A $10,000 investment would now be worth $197,550. Meta, 488%. Well, it's been a lagger, but you know, I've got to tell you that you would have made $58,800 if you put $10,000 in. Alphabet's more than doubled the S&P. It would have turned your $10,000 into $36,500. The biggest winners were in the data center, with amazing returns from a handful of semiconductor and disk drive companies who started the bull market as small, volatile enterprises and are now behemoths. Although, as I'll point out later in the show, they're starting to lose their shine.
No matter what, the most important point is that consistent investing — putting money to work regularly in good and bad times in stocks and indices — is by far the best strategy toward wealth. We could not have predicted either the big declines or the big rebounds. We could have turned tails so many times in these four years, and we would have all been the poorer for it. The bottom line: stay in, keep buying, don't lose faith. Those are the lessons from this indomitable and intrepid four-year-old bull market.
Let's take calls. Let's go to Zach in Louisiana. Zach.
Hey, big booyah. Jim, how you doing?
I am doing well, Zach. How about you?
Oh, I'm good. Just trying to make some money, man.
So, me and my finance buddies have been buying into this LNG producer for a couple of years now. We bought it all the way down to $6, and then it recently hit 17 again, but it's typically been sitting around $13 a share. Do you think Venture Global has room to make a big run to $20 a share, or will it be a struggle to make another big move?
I'll tell you what happened, Zach. It gave a bad taste in people's mouths because it did some things involving contracts that people didn't like, and I think those were then forgotten when the stock went down to 7 or 8, but it's stuck here at 13. I don't see as much upside as I'd like. I think LNG is better. I mean, the stock symbol is LNG. I would put my money in that. I will also do ET, by the way, which gives you good return.
All right. No matter what, despite all the decline, staying in the market and putting your money to work regularly is always the best strategy. Coming up tonight, auto stocks have been struggling lately under rising rates and the price of oil. I'm sitting down with the bankable CEO of General Motors to find out how the company's positioning for an unpredictable environment. Then you called in about a power plant builder whose stock's been cut in half. I'm turning in my homework for you on what it will take for the hardware and software stocks to normalize in this AI-driven market. I'm explaining the changing winds of the tech stocks and how you can stay ahead of it. So stay with Cramer.
Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow Jim Cramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Cramer #madmentions. Send Jim an email to
[email protected] or give us a call at 1-800-743-CNBC. Miss something? Head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
What do you do with the stock of a great automaker during a time of high oil prices and rising interest rates? Well, that's the question you have to ask about General Motors. In late July, GM reported an excellent quarter, and the stock shot up to new all-time highs. Like I said, this is a great company. They've been doing very well. Since then, oil prices haven't retreated while interest rates — well, they just keep rising, making it more expensive to get an auto loan. That's why the stock's given up most of its gains for the year. Still, GM just rolled out some new heavy-duty truck models last month. They've got a growing digital and services business. And frankly, business seems to be holding up, I think, pretty well. Even though the company's in a quiet period ahead of earnings reports next week, I want to check in with Mary Barra. She's the chair and CEO of General Motors, to get a better sense of the industry and celebrate how far this company has come over the past 13 years under her leadership. Ms. Barra, welcome back to Mad Money.
Oh, it's great to be here, Jim. Thank you.
I mean it — to celebrate. This is a difficult time. You have gotten — you've had to deal with very complex and tough geopolitical issues, a policy environment that's very, pretty alien, I think, from what it was when you got in 14 years ago. I still don't think, though, that you get enough credit from the street about your vision and your tenacity. And I'm wondering how we can just explain very quickly what the arc of GM is — what you've done and accomplished in a really tough period.
Well, I really appreciate that, because we do think the stock is undervalued when you look at it. We have the strongest vehicle portfolio that we've ever had. We're building on top of that a very strong software business and services business that you talked about. And I think, from a traditional OEM, we're in a leadership position there with OnStar, that's 30 years old and still growing, as well as what we're doing with Super Cruise. And then when you look at it, there's adjacencies like GM Defense. So we have a really strong fundamental business, and we have opportunities to continue to grow.
Well, let's talk about these highlights in the third quarter. Light-duty pickup trucks, for example, Silverado — we all know Silverado — Sierra LD, these were up 9% in the quarter. You did incredibly well. Chevy Trailblazer, Chevy Trax. These are really very strong numbers for this environment.
Well, and if you think about it, for the trucks, this is a truck that we've already announced a new one's coming out that will start rolling out yet this year and then into next year with many different models. This has been one of the strongest trucks through its whole life cycle, and customers still love the truck as well as, as you mentioned, small SUVs. We continue to grow midsize SUVs. So we have a very strong portfolio across the board, and I think that is what is giving the strength that General Motors has and how we've been able to, with all the twists and turns you've talked about — whether it's tariffs, whether it's oil prices, whether it's interest rates — the strength of the product is what's fueling our business.
Well, a new twist: people love diesel engines. I know that when you talk to anybody who owns a truck, they'll say, 'Look, you know, mine's a diesel,' and yet diesel — the fuel — just went up in price rather dramatically. What do you say?
Well, again, I think people look at it, especially a diesel truck buyer. They're extremely loyal. I think, you know, we all hope that the geopolitical situation gets resolved sooner rather than later. But I think people look over the time that they're going to own that truck, it will come down, and generally a diesel is a very efficient way, and they love the performance.
Okay. So, let's talk about the state of play of EVs in an environment where gasoline has gone up in price, but the rebate's gone. At the same time, you've been saying over and over again, the endgame is EV.
That's what we believe, because we fundamentally believe the vehicles are better. You never have to go to a gas station. You have instant torque. It opens up new design languages. And our EVs have won many awards for beautiful design, best luxury vehicle of the year, etc. So, we think we've got a great EV portfolio. We think it will continue to grow, but it will be slower. I'm excited because, you know, we're investing in the next-generation battery technology. We'll be rolling out LMR in the not-too-distant future, which will take thousands of dollars out of the cost of the vehicle. So, we continue on that path, but we've also got great ICE vehicles, or internal-combustion vehicles, and we'll have the right hybrids. So we'll have a portfolio where we're going to let the customer choose. Whatever the customer would like, we're going to have a great vehicle, and I think that's how we respond to a situation, especially when things spike like they're doing now. But we believe they'll come down.
Well, let's go back to the battery.
You uniquely have said we want to be in control of this. We don't want to be at the mercy of others. We don't want to be at the mercy of any country. Would it be in the U.S.? Talk about your battery philosophy and why it's working.
Well, again, we have the ability to do R&D — core R&D on battery technology — as well as processing, and then scaling. And not everyone can do an automotive-grade battery. So we're working not only with, you know, LG as a partner, SDI from Samsung, but also with startups, understanding what battery technology... I believe we're in the, you know, the first lap of the 24 Hours of Le Mans when you look at battery development, and it's very promising what is coming that will only make the EVs more attractive. We're always working on energy density at a lower cost.
And MP Materials was quite an original deal that not many people saw coming.
Well, you know, when we went through not only COVID but then the semiconductor shortage, we recognized we needed to rethink our supply chain. We started working with MP Materials over five years ago because we looked at, you know, we have businesses around the world, but we wanted to be closer to where we sold the vehicle and have a more resilient supply chain. So we either ally, reshore, or onshore. MP was one of the first, recognizing the importance, and we're really proud that they're going to be producing validated parts, hopefully by the end of the year.
Excellent. Now, you mentioned digital sales, and a lot of people say, 'Oh, come on, it can't be additive.' Yours actually is, I'd say, material to your earnings.
I believe it's material now and will continue to grow. When you look at the fact that we have well over 10 million OnStar subscribers, we have a billion miles of people using Super Cruise. And Super Cruise is one of those technologies, if you haven't tried it, where people, once they experience it, they say, 'I either wouldn't buy a car without it or strongly prefer it on my next vehicle.' So technologies like that on the vehicle, I think, are what are going to generate the loyalty. And we're seeing that business grow. And I'm super excited about as the truck comes out because we're going to have more models available with Super Cruise.
No, to go back to OnStar for a second — I think it's important. The re-up is the way I look at the success of this. People keep re-upping. It'd be one thing if, look, the subscription comes... I don't know, when it's over it runs off. No, people love it.
People do. People do, because not only, you know, you've got the security piece of it, you can choose your program of what you have in the vehicle, and people find it a very important technology to use, and they depend on it. So, we're really proud of the attach rates that we see once the initial subscription is ended.
All right, but let's deal for a moment with the fact that oil is up a lot. The overall number of vehicles down 6% year over year, also down 6% from the second quarter. But I think that when you look at the actual makeup of what you've got, that it's actually much better than what the overall number would look like.
Well, it absolutely is, especially when you look at, in many cases, we're selling everything we can build. And that's why, as we launch the...
Oh, you're selling everything.
We're — pretty much all of the models, whether it's crossovers, full-size trucks, full-size SUVs, we're selling everything we can make. In many of our plants, we're constrained — not only with the vehicle production, but with engine production. As we get through next year's ramp of the next-generation truck and the new engines that are coming in, we get into '28, we're going to really have then the ability to produce more vehicles. And in some of the cases, the vehicles that we're moving to the United States not only are going to give us a better position from a tariff, but they're going to give us added volume. So, I'm very excited about what we have coming, and that will uncap us and give us room to grow.
All right. And I don't want to overlook the fact that you're number one in fleet sales. I mean, that does matter tremendously. Some people say, 'Well, listen, they don't make as much money,' but it's profit.
No, it is. And fundamentally, since COVID, the fleet business has changed, and we see it. Again, it depends on who the fleet customer is, and we have some very strong fleet relationships. I'm very proud because that's another business that keeps growing, and we're number one.
At the same time, you've tried to offer the average American, who is struggling so much, very good value on some of your cars.
Well, last year we sold over 700,000 vehicles that had an MSRP, manufacturer's suggested retail price, of under $30,000. So think about that. The Chevrolet Trax starts under $25,000. This is a car that's beautifully styled, has great technology, great safety features. When it came out, I drove it for a couple of months. I love that vehicle because you're not giving anything up. It's got good pickup. It's a great vehicle. So, being able to deliver that, I think we're really getting those customers that are worried about affordability.
Excellent. Mary, stay right here. We're going to have a lot more with you after the break.
Don't touch that dial. We have lap two of Cramer's conversation with GM's top brass next.
Before the break, you saw the first part of my interview with Mary Barra, the chair and CEO of General Motors. One segment isn't enough to cover this great company, so let's get back into it. Mary, I have been blown away by your capital allocation. Now, I know that sounds pedestrian, but the fact is you have a great buyback. You bought back 37% of the stock since you got here. It's meant a huge amount to shareholders. How did you know to go that way and not dividend?
Well, I think when we looked at it, as I said before, we fundamentally believe the company is undervalued. And so, you know, the management team works with our board, and we look at what is really going to create the most shareholder value, and we have — as you say — many shareholders who are very happy about it. But that's one of the things I focused on when I took this role. I think in the company in the past we hadn't been as disciplined as we should be about capital allocation — that it's got to generate a return because this is our owners' money. So that's the focus we always have. We believe the company and the stock share price today is undervalued, so we think it's a great opportunity to continue to create value.
Right. Now, one of the things that I think that you've been doing that is hard to, again, quantify how much it means is supply chain management. Whether it be a deal with Micron for memory chips, whether it be MP, but also trying to get around tariffs and do supply chain management — try to keep the cost of your vehicles low, but move stuff back and forth. How are you able to deal with an environment where it seems to change all the time to be able to continue to do supply chain management in a disciplined way?
I think the people of General Motors are what make this possible. I think our superpower is agility. And so from a supply chain, you know, again, they lived through COVID, where, you know, any given day you were going to learn that you weren't going to get a part, to when we went through the semiconductor shortage. And I think what we did is we built partnerships with our suppliers...
And instead of calling and being difficult with them, we just said, 'Okay, what's the problem? How can we solve it? Here's where we need you to build — use your capacity for this.' And I think we've been building on that relationship. So the relationships help, but also it's the team that's looking ahead at what's the next thing coming. We've all seen the supply chain disrupted again with data centers and some of the demands that they have. Our team continually says, 'Okay, let's get ahead of that.' So I have to give them all the credit.
